GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

57 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

All of them - the tractor trailers, the farm tractors, and the bulldozers.  That’s what you use for low speed high torque applications.

exactly!

[Eric Gagen + 713]

24 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

exactly!

What is the purpose of this statement?

[Eric Gagen + 713]

7 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

You ever even driven in mud? Sure, the top of it is flat. What's underneath usually isn't. All those turbine you installed on muddy farmland didn't tell you that? Are you another pavement princess? 

I don't care what your questions regarding my understanding of electric vs crankshaft engines are. They're irrelevant off-road. 

 

If you believe that what is under the mud isn't flat, then I have news for you - come to the coastal plain of the S.E US from North Carolina to Texas and it's mud all the way down - at least the first few hundred feet or so before it starts to thicken up some.  You can (and people actually have) sink heavy equipment completely under the surface ground level under the wrong conditions if the top parts of the mud are thin enough, and you keep making bad recovery decisions.  As an example, when they were pouring the foundation for our previous home in Louisiana, they accidentally sank the back end of a cement truck about 6 ft down.  Only got it out by pulling/towing with three other cement trucks in a spread hitch formation, and even then they managed to snap a 5/8" tow chain off.   It took me a couple of years work with the tractor to get that area where the rear whell pods had sunk in back to stable ground.  

[turbguy + 1,544]

7 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

You ever even driven in mud? Sure, the top of it is flat. What's underneath usually isn't. All those turbine you installed on muddy farmland didn't tell you that? Are you another pavement princess? 

I don't care what your questions regarding my understanding of electric vs crankshaft engines are. They're irrelevant off-road. 

 

Tell me.

How much torque can you obtain from a recip that is at zero RPM?

Edited December 9, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

15 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

mine can. Every house has 200Amp 220/240V electric panels in the garage, 10-20 ft away from where you would need to tie in a EV charger.  So do all the neighborhoods around mine.  So can basically all of them that have been built out since the early 90's, so at least half without lifting a finger.   Charging at night pretty much takes care of load issues - I live in a hot place - max load is air conditioning during the day, so night time power is dramatically underutilized.  

Cobalt is, and isn't an issue.  I actually looked into it from an investment point of view (looking for mining company stocks to buy) and it's not really a limiting factor.  There is a LOT of it in the ground.  The way it comes up is extraordinarily unpleasant though - basically a lot of 'artisan' miners in the Congo provide about 1/2 the world supply.  Ironically, the only way to fix that is for demand, and price to go up at least somewhat.  If/when demand and price picks up, then it will be worthwhile to sort the mess out.  

However Cobalt demand for/from electric  vehicles is not assured - there are a lot of replacements for Cobalt, or ways to make the batteries with less Cobalt.  If the price of Cobalt gets too high, or the political issues involved with getting it become overly unpleasant it won't get used.  

The big potential production constraint is Lithium.  Production can be increased almost without limit because reserves are collosal, but the time it will take to do that is definitely an issue - it takes a while to get a hard rock or evaporation operation up and running, and the market for lithium right now is small compared to what it will become and growing fast.  The price of Lithium will see booms and busts in the coming 10-20 years, but in the end it will be a massive industry, and all the current players will be huge profitable organizations, so I invested in that, because it will win under basically all scenarios - all electric vehicle batteries use lithium..  

The other big potential constraint is copper.  Copper is already under heavy production and price pressure, and my estimate is that the takeoff of electric vehicles will double copper demand.  If you want to make money in electric cars, invest in copper.  You may or may not get the battery chemistry right, but the motors and wiring up the batteries will take a LOT of copper.  

I don't get your point, you are saying that 100% of the people in your neighborhood drive EVs?

What neighborhood is that? Never heard of it.

And cobalt is very difficult to ramp up production, it is a byproduct of nickel and copper, and copper also is a byproduct of other ores. Not easy to supply.

And, no, you need cobalt for any worthwhile EV. Only low performance use no cobalt.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

14 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Not propaganda,the skyrocketing growth of EV sales is a well documented fact.

The fact that you drive an ICE vehicle is the point, Jay, which you attempted to avoid by talking about "owning" Tesla, which I presume means that you own Tesla stock. You still drive that second-hand BMW internal combustion vehicle, I presume, and the question posed to you still stands.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

6 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

South Australia Leads The World On Grid-Scale Renewables (Again!)

 

South Australia is to the world of renewable energy what Norway is to the world of electric vehicle uptake. Rising from the ashes of a massive power blackout in 2016 and with the help of the Tesla Big Battery (Hornsdale Power Reserve and now others), this state has become a world leader in transitioning a grid from fossil fuels to renewable energy. It is far from the catastrophe that was predicted by many when South Australia closed its coal generators.

South Australia has become the physics lab of the world — a giant experiment in the use of “variable renewables” to power a statewide grid. The wind is blowing, the sun is shining, and the batteries are charging. As I write this, South Australia is pumping out approximately 2.3 GW of power – 872 MW from wind, 1,340 MW from sunshine, and only 85 MW from gas.

After a month of breaking one record after another for wind and solar generation, South Australia finds itself very close to being able to operate a grid with no fossil fuel input at all. A lot of this depends on pending regulation changes around the use of synchronous generators. New ways of thinking about the grid are emerging as new technologies, like batteries, take over the necessary balancing. 

Giles Parkinson of RenewEconomy writes:

“It is likely, however, that much will depend on the deployment of grid scale batteries that have what are known as ‘grid forming inverters’.

“It’s complicated technology, but the main difference is that rather than following the signals from the rest of the grid, these inverters have the capability of creating their own lead, and act as ‘virtual synchronous machines’ that replicate the system strength and other grid services delivered by spinning machines.”

It is worth noting that all of South Australia’s power is produced with “variable renewables.” There is no hydro or geothermal in the South Australia grid.

While South Australia continues to “boldly go,” the Australian Electric Market Operator (AEMO) is still a little unsure of how it will work. I guess they will have to timidly follow until it is impossible to ignore the reality of what is unfolding.

 

Jay, as you usually do,, you forgot to give the source of your promo/blurb....I guess it was too embarrassing to give the source, even for you.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Here is the reality of where we are, the indispensable dependency on oil.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/World-Leaders-Have-To-Face-The-Truth-About-Oil-Demand.html

"Price shocks, scarcity and energy poverty are on the cards after two consecutive years of underinvestment in the oil and gas industry, a report by IHS Markit and the International Energy Forum said this week. This year's investments in the industry would be about $341 billion, which is 23 percent lower than pre-pandemic investment levels of $525 billion, and that's despite rising global demand for the commodities, the report noted.

"Oil and gas investment will need to return to pre-Covid levels and stay there through 2030 to restore market balance," the report's authors wrote, with the secretary general of the IEF saying, as quoted by Upstream Online, the "energy crisis in Europe and Asia this winter is a preview of what we can expect in the years ahead".

This would certainly not sit well with renewable energy proponents like the head of the International Energy Agency Fatih Birol and the EU's green deal chief, Frans Timmermans. Yet, it wasn't too long ago that Birol called on OPEC+ to produce more oil and on Russia to pump more gas to Europe, and Timmermans was forced to admit gas had a part to play in the energy transition.

"Underinvesting in oil and gas before renewables and other low-carbon technologies that are ready to scale up to meet energy demand could create recurrent energy crises of the kind we saw in Asia and Europe over the last few months," said IHS Markit's Daniel Yergin in comments on the report. He added that these crises could lead to adverse economic consequences. These, in turn, will in all likelihood spark the social unrest Aramco's Nasser talked about at the WPC."

Edited December 9, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

17 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I don't get your point, you are saying that 100% of the people in your neighborhood drive EVs?

What neighborhood is that? Never heard of it.

And cobalt is very difficult to ramp up production, it is a byproduct of nickel and copper, and copper also is a byproduct of other ores. Not easy to supply.

And, no, you need cobalt for any worthwhile EV. Only low performance use no cobalt.

No - not even close - but daytime air conditioning load is the driver for powerplant and grid sizing here.  nighttime electric vehicle charging is effectively a byproduct of plant and grid sizing that up until now had not been utilized very much.  This will be different in cooler areas, but not here (Texas).

Cobalt is currently a byproduct of other ores because demand and price is relatively low - i.e. getting it as a secondary mining byproduct is 'good enough' to meet demand for the most part.  There ARE primary cobalt ores, and bodies which have cobalt as their primary economic component, but except for a few locations they aren't in production right now because of lack of demand.    

Copper IS a byproduct of other ores, but it is also a 'primary ore' .  Defining what is a primary ore and what is secondary all comes down to metals prices.  For example there are open pit copper mines in Arizona which 'become' zinc mines when the price of zinc is high, and which become 'silver mines' when the price of silver is high.  The ore hasn't changed - only the relative prices of the products produced from it.  

 

The definition of what a mine 'is for' depends on the price of the products produced from it.  Most mines have a mixture of different metals in them, which have different economic values at different times.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bingham_Canyon_Mine The Bingham Canyon mine is a classic example.  It has been around a long time and is one of the largest world sources of Copper.  However in various years more income has been derived from gold, or molybdenum,  than from copper depending on world metals prices.  Most metals outside of iron and aluminum ore are produced in a wide variety of metallic configurations which are extremely hard to qualify as 'xx type mine' only.  

Edited December 9, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

No - not even close - but daytime air conditioning load is the driver for powerplant and grid sizing here.  nighttime electric vehicle charging is effectively a 'free' byproduct that up until now had not been utilized very much.  This will be different in cooler areas, but not here.

Cobalt is currently a byproduct of other ores because demand and price is relatively low - i.e. getting it as a secondary mining byproduct is 'good enough' to meet demand for the most part.  There ARE primary cobalt ores, and bodies which have cobalt as their primary economic component, but except for a few locations they aren't in production right now because of lack of demand.    

Copper IS a byproduct of other ores, but it is also a 'primary ore' .  Defining what is a primary ore and what is secondary all comes down to metals prices.  For example there are open pit copper mines in Arizona which 'become' zinc mines when the price of zinc is high, and which become 'silver mines' when the price of silver is high.  The ore hasn't changed - only the relative prices of the products produced from it.  

 

The definition of what a mine 'is for' depends on the price of the products produced from it.  Most mines have a mixture of different metals in them, which have different economic values at different times.  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bingham_Canyon_Mine The Bingham Canyon mine is a classic example.  It has been around a long time and is one of the largest world sources of Copper.  However in various years more income has been derived from gold, or molybdenum,  than from copper depending on world metals prices.  

Right, as I stated above, "not even close" to 100%, the draw for overnight recharging is still mini-mini-miniscule. Put EVs in the driveways of every house in your neighborhood and you need a major grid upgrade, and multiply that need by the number of neighborhoods in America and you have public bankruptcy.

No one wants dirty and toxic mining in their region, so that knocks a lot of new cobalt/copper capacity off the market.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Right, as I stated above, "not even close" to 100%, the draw for overnight recharging is still mini-mini-miniscule. Put EVs in the driveways of every house in your neighborhood and you need a major grid upgrade, and multiply that need by the number of neighborhoods in America and you have public bankruptcy.

No one wants dirty and toxic mining in their region, so that knocks a lot of new cobalt/copper capacity off the market.

That's the part you aren't getting.  Even if ALL the vehicles in my area were electric, the electrical current draw for overnight charging is still low compared to the daytime HVAC demand.  There isn't any need for a grid upgrade to accomodate this, at least in Texas. There will be more overall demand for electric power, but thanks to a mixture of natural gas, wind and solar we can meet that relatively easy with a flat cost curve (more supply at the same price)  In cold places, that might be different, but I can't speak for the nature of the grid there.  

Nobody want's 'dirty toxic mining' but it's going to happen somewhere - and when the prices get high enough it does.  I worked up some numbers and if (for example) the raw material input costs for EV batteries double, the final price for the batteries, or the EV's does not even come close to doubling.  It would probably take a tripling of ALL the EV battery raw material component prices to show up as a measurable change in final sticker prices.  At triple current prices,  all sorts of mines, and projects become massive economic winners, and communities that previously had issues with 'dirty toxic mining' will suddenly be OK with it when a few billion dollars get tossed into their local tax revenue stream.  As of now, the business of mining metals for EV's is mostly to small in scale to attract serious attention outside of traditional mining regions, but that will change when the economic scale changes. 

For $10 million in economic activity a year, a lot of countries/states/regions will decide that mining is a bad decision given the side effects.  For $10 billion in economic activity a year a lot of those same places will have a different cost benefit calculation to make, and make no doubt about it - the business of mining for lithium and cobalt is in the infantile stages of ramping up - that 1,000 fold increase IS coming to the places that have the right geology. 

Will it be in Europe?  Mostly no - it's too heavily populated for the cost of surface access to make sense (mostly) but plenty of other places will make a different set of decisions.   

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

What is the purpose of this statement?

We were discussing the viability of EV's dragging a trailer versus an ICE vehicle and you confirmed in your comment that all the vehicles you would recommend were ICE vehicles.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

21 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

We were discussing the viability of EV's dragging a trailer versus an ICE vehicle and you confirmed in your comment that all the vehicles you would recommend were ICE vehicles.

We were discussing the viability of light duty EV's versus light duty ICE's. 

For heavy haul operations (on or off road), I don't think that anyone is realistically suggesting that EV's are ready for commercial use. We are discussing light duty trucks which might ocassionally engage in a more challenging situation.  

The discussion was veering off into heavy duty and commercial use territory, and my point is that no light duty EV OR ICE vehicles are suitable for that sort of operation.  half ton pickups are light duty vehicles for a reason.  They are tremendously limited in their capabilities compared to commercial vehicles.   

Edited December 9, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Here is where short-sighted and panic-driven energy policies are leading us,

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Top-Executive-In-US-Shale-Is-Worried-Oil-Prices-Could-Go-To-100.html

""I'm worried that it may get too high, above $100 (per barrel)," according to Scott Sheffield, CEO of shale explorer Pioneer Natural Resources Co., who was speaking to Reuters in an interview at the Petroleum Congress in Houston on Tuesday. 

"I hope it stabilizes between an $80 to $100 range over the next several years. We need stability in the oil markets," he said.

 

Sheffield said U.S. oil production would only increase by 3% annually because oil companies return cash to shareholders rather than boost CAPEX. In that case, he added oil prices would continue to bid more than $70 a barrel for the foreseeable future.

He was mind-boggled last month when the Biden administration requested OPEC to increase crude output to suppress prices, overlooking U.S. oil/gas companies.  

"The Biden administration called up OPEC to increase production and didn't ask the U.S. to do it," he said. 

Sheffield's outlook differs drastically from the Biden administration, desperately trying to squash oil prices amid plunging poll numbers due to high inflation ahead of the midterms. 

President Biden has managed to coordinate a global SPR release of crude. He's also requested OPEC to increase production. OPEC and its allies announced last month that it boosted crude oil production by 500,000 b/d in November. However, WTI remains above the $72 level. Further, the new Omicron variant of the coronavirus is turning out to be a nothing burger at the moment.

It's not just Sheffield. Kyle Bass explains that higher prices are coming, and blames "7 years of dramatic underinvestment in hydrocarbons" will "inevitably generate $100+ crude oil and $5+ prices at the pump for years to come." "

Edited December 9, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

That's the part you aren't getting.  Even if ALL the vehicles in my area were electric, the electrical current draw for overnight charging is still low compared to the daytime HVAC demand.  There isn't any need for a grid upgrade to accomodate this, at least in Texas. There will be more overall demand for electric power, but thanks to a mixture of natural gas, wind and solar we can meet that relatively easy with a flat cost curve (more supply at the same price)  In cold places, that might be different, but I can't speak for the nature of the grid there.  

Nobody want's 'dirty toxic mining' but it's going to happen somewhere - and when the prices get high enough it does.  I worked up some numbers and if (for example) the raw material input costs for EV batteries double, the final price for the batteries, or the EV's does not even come close to doubling.  It would probably take a tripling of ALL the EV battery raw material component prices to show up as a measurable change in final sticker prices.  At triple current prices,  all sorts of mines, and projects become massive economic winners, and communities that previously had issues with 'dirty toxic mining' will suddenly be OK with it when a few billion dollars get tossed into their local tax revenue stream.  As of now, the business of mining metals for EV's is mostly to small in scale to attract serious attention outside of traditional mining regions, but that will change when the economic scale changes. 

For $10 million in economic activity a year, a lot of countries/states/regions will decide that mining is a bad decision given the side effects.  For $10 billion in economic activity a year a lot of those same places will have a different cost benefit calculation to make, and make no doubt about it - the business of mining for lithium and cobalt is in the infantile stages of ramping up - that 1,000 fold increase IS coming to the places that have the right geology. 

Will it be in Europe?  Mostly no - it's too heavily populated for the cost of surface access to make sense (mostly) but plenty of other places will make a different set of decisions.   

Nobody wants their annual health issue rates boosted by toxic minerals, so don't count on a massive upgrading in cobalt/copper mining capacity. Much of that increased revenue stream expected from more mining would be diverted to building more hospitals to deal with health problems. The same Green folks who are calling for EVs will line up to oppose expanded toxic mining when the time comes. In fact, that is already happening, as we saw earlier.

Most neighborhoods lack the grid capacity to charge up 100% EV usage overnight, especially when weather is cold. Or hot.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, as you usually do,, you forgot to give the source of your promo/blurb....I guess it was too embarrassing to give the source, even for you.

the link to the primary article is in the middle of the post. It is underlined and in italics but I guess you overlooked it as usual.

Edited December 9, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

the link is in the middle of the post. It is underlined and in italics but I guess you overlooked it as usual.

You overlooked a little problem about your own driving habits, specifically that second-hand BMW internal combustion engine which you drive daily. Your attempt to avoid the issue by claiming to own Tesla stock (?) failed to fool anyone here.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

12 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You overlooked a little problem about your own driving habits, specifically that second-hand BMW internal combustion engine which you drive daily. Your attempt to avoid the issue by claiming to own Tesla stock (?) failed to fool anyone here.

Your fixation on what I drive is hilarious. EV sales just keep skyrocketing and so does the value of Tesla stock!

Edited December 9, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

6 hours ago, turbguy said:

Tell me.

How much torque can you obtain from a recip that is at zero RPM?

0 torque possible at 0RPM. 

My right hook is about 4000N.

Why don't you fuck off. 

Edited December 9, 2021 by QuarterCenturyVet

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

We were discussing the viability of EV's dragging a trailer versus an ICE vehicle and you confirmed in your comment that all the vehicles you would recommend were ICE vehicles.

A hundred years ago you would have said "We were discussing the viability of ICE dragging a trailer versus a horse and you confirmed in your comment that all the methods you would recommend were horses."

Edited December 9, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

48 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It appears the environmental zombie apocalypse began long ago...Jay you may be late to the party, but there is something to be said for effort.

[QuarterCenturyVet + 312]

6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

If you believe that what is under the mud isn't flat, then I have news for you - come to the coastal plain of the S.E US from North Carolina to Texas and it's mud all the way down - at least the first few hundred feet or so before it starts to thicken up some.  You can (and people actually have) sink heavy equipment completely under the surface ground level under the wrong conditions if the top parts of the mud are thin enough, and you keep making bad recovery decisions.  As an example, when they were pouring the foundation for our previous home in Louisiana, they accidentally sank the back end of a cement truck about 6 ft down.  Only got it out by pulling/towing with three other cement trucks in a spread hitch formation, and even then they managed to snap a 5/8" tow chain off.   It took me a couple of years work with the tractor to get that area where the rear whell pods had sunk in back to stable ground.  

So, there's no rocks, clay chunks, roots or sunken timber in that mud? 

Get my point yet? 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Nobody wants their annual health issue rates boosted by toxic minerals, so don't count on a massive upgrading in cobalt/copper mining capacity. Much of that increased revenue stream expected from more mining would be diverted to building more hospitals to deal with health problems. The same Green folks who are calling for EVs will line up to oppose expanded toxic mining when the time comes. In fact, that is already happening, as we saw earlier.

Most neighborhoods lack the grid capacity to charge up 100% EV usage overnight, especially when weather is cold. Or hot.

Nobody wants health issues from 'toxic minerals' and also nobody wants to die in a car crash.  At some point the benefits outweigh the costs. where you live the bar to set up a new mine might be extremely high, but that's not the case everywhere, and even in the cases where the bar IS very high, if there is enough money to be made somebody will put in the effort to meet it.

 

Cold weather isn't really an issue where I live. Yes, we had a cold snap last February, but in addition to the electric grid being a mess, the roads were closed, and the gas stations were shut down.  Not terribly relevent to the general question.    I don't know what the grid solutions for places with routine cold weather will look like when coupled with EV's.  

Edited December 9, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Eric Gagen + 713]

34 minutes ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

So, there's no rocks, clay chunks, roots or sunken timber in that mud? 

Get my point yet? 

No, there isn't - there are NO rocks - not for a very long distance in any direction - sometimes hundreds of miles. Very disappointing for this guy from California - I dreamed of rocks for quite a few years after getting into this part of the country.  No 'clay chunks' the soil is basically clay based already.  If you are in a place where there are roots big enough to be an issue for vehicles, then you aren't in bad mud - there are roots that break up the slick smooth mud.  Most fields have been cleared long enough ago that they don't  have tree roots.  Honestly, I have never seen bad mud in/at a forest, because the trees themselves stabilize the ground.  I suppose it could happen in a freshly cleared area, where you cut down enough trees to get a vehicle in,  but the roots haven't rotted away yet.  

Never heard of 'sunken timber' in fields and what not.  In swamp/marsh yes, but those aren't passable for land vehicles.  

[turbguy + 1,544]

3 hours ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

0 torque possible at 0RPM. 

My right hook is about 4000N.

Why don't you fuck off. 

I just wished to advise you of the significant different operational characteristics between electric motors and internal combustion recips.

High torque at zero RPM can be quite useful, no? 

Particularly when you are starting a heavy load.

Recip steam engines can have similar characteristics (depends on piston position/starting valve timing).

Those, of course, are external combustion recips.

Edited December 9, 2021 by turbguy