GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Sure - there are always a few fringe luddites out there on the edges of civilization.  Don't mistake the few cheerleaders of an extremist position for reality.  

The extremists are now running the show in Europe. I give the American extremists a short term in office.

Here is what the extremists need to read and understand,

"Atmospheric CO2 concentration is correlated weakly but NEGATIVELY with linearly-detrended T proxies", and "only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRFCO2."  Solar cycles are the dominant determinant of global temperature change.

Edited December 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eric Gagen + 713]

43 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, there is clearly no correlation, just read the literature, one of which I linked above. 

"Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is correlated weakly but negatively with linearly-detrended T proxies over the last 425 million years. Of 68 correlation coefficients (half non-parametric) between CO₂ and T proxies encompassing all known major Phanerozoic climate transitions, 77.9% are non-discernible (p > 0.05) and 60.0% of discernible correlations are negative. Marginal radiative forcing (ΔRF_CO2), the change in forcing at the top of the troposphere associated with a unit increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, was computed using MODTRAN. The correlation between ΔRF_CO2 and linearly-detrended T across the Phanerozoic Eon is positive and discernible, but only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRF_CO2." 

Note, "Atmospheric CO₂ concentration is correlated weakly but NEGATIVELY with linearly-detrended T proxies", and "only 2.6% of variance in T is attributable to variance in ΔRFCO2."  Solar cycles are by far the determinant factor in temperature change, this is not even an argument any more with this recent work.

The literature you cite has a couple of dozen data points to cover 450 million years of temperatures.  It's not a good study.  You need much more closely spaced data points to reach any conclusions whatsoever.  

[ronwagn + 6,290]

The good news, I have read, is that the European Union is planning on accepting natural gas and nuclear as GREEN! MAYBE!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-plans-to-finish-green-investment-rules-for-gas-and-nuclear-next-year/ar-AAS0cRW

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1530097/eu-eyes-nuclear-gas-as-green-on-sustainable-energy-list

Edited December 24, 2021 by ronwagn

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Europe Faces Rolling Blackouts Amid Energy Crisis

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Europe-Faces-Rolling-Blackouts-Amid-Energy-Crisis.html

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

A Flotilla of U.S. LNG Cargoes Is Headed to Fuel-Starved Europe

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-22/a-flotilla-of-u-s-lng-cargoes-is-headed-to-fuel-starved-europe

By 

Sergio Chapa

 +Follow

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

The literature you cite has a couple of dozen data points to cover 450 million years of temperatures.  It's not a good study.  You need much more closely spaced data points to reach any conclusions whatsoever.  

No, statistical models do not require a fixed ratio of sample data, just enough to establish trends and provide sufficient explanatory power. If you had studied statistical methods you would know that.

This is a more comprehensive model than the usual climate model. The Achilles heel of the CO2 models is just that, CO2. When models exclude relevant variables (such as solar cycles), what happens is that the model becomes unstable and produces distorted coefficients for the variables which are included in the model. The distortion can be of an order magnitude of hundreds of percentages, making the unstable model completely worthless. I have discussed this basic problem with several climate scientists, who acknowledge the issue but refuse to go into details. That does not fill me with much confidence that the standard CO2 climate models have a good handle on these issues.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-LNG-Exporters-Stand-To-Benefit-From-EU-Energy-Crisis.html

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by ronwagn
add

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Now panic is setting in as Britain's commitment to aggressively eliminate fossil fuels is having its inevitable result in terms of crisis shortages.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Energy-Groups-Call-For-Government-Intervention-As-Power-Prices-Skyrocket.html

"Trade Association Energy UK – which represents over 100 members – has described record wholesale gas and power prices as a “market-wide crisis” and has criticized chancellor Rishi Sunak for the lack of a clear plan to protect the industry. Speaking to The Financial Times, chief executive Emma Pinchbeck said: “Other treasuries in Europe have already responded to the crisis, but in the UK, the energy sector is still asking if the chancellor knows that energy bills going up by over 50 percent in the new year is a problem for ordinary people, businesses, and the economy.”

Pinchbeck was not alone in her criticism this week, with EDF Energy – the fourth-biggest supplier in the UK – warning the situation was now “critical” as it urged the government to “act now to support energy customers.”

Meanwhile, Good Energy’s shares dropped four percent amid profit warnings, with the supplier downgrading its expected earnings by £3m due to soaring wholesale prices and sustained market volatility.

In a trading update to the London Stock Exchange, Nigel Pocklington, chief executive of the energy supplier described the situation as a “national crisis” and warned that “no one in the industry is immune.”

He said: “We urge the UK government to support the industry at large in navigating these short-term challenges to protect bill-payers and those that serve them"

Edited December 24, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The good news, I have read, is that the European Union is planning on accepting natural gas and nuclear as GREEN! MAYBE!

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/eu-plans-to-finish-green-investment-rules-for-gas-and-nuclear-next-year/ar-AAS0cRW

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1530097/eu-eyes-nuclear-gas-as-green-on-sustainable-energy-list

Personally I am quite surprised by the lack of rebellion in the streets of France or Germany. The citizenship has a long history of low tolerance towards energy misconduct...EV'S on every corner street and yet no energy to heat their homes or keep there industrial production/ jobs afloat.

Maybe tiny homes will take foot in the EU, spurring new growth and jobs..walking away from the insanity carbon emissions...such is life in this ever changing world....or maybe a bounty might well be placed on mantle of this Greenies....

 

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Personally I am quite surprised by the lack of rebellion in the streets of France or Germany. The citizenship has a long history of low tolerance towards energy misconduct...EV'S on every corner street and yet no energy to heat their homes of keep there industrial production/ jobs afloat.

Maybe tiny homes will take foot in the EU, spurring new growth and jobs..walking away from the insanity carbon emissions...such is life in this ever changing world....or maybe a bounty might well be placed on mantle of this Greenies....

 

Heating, cooling, gasoline, diesel, nuclear fission, area all real dispatchable energy. Wind and solar are supplemental unless the energy is in expensive battery systems. It is not yet fully developed. 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

30 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

No, statistical models do not require a fixed ratio of sample data, just enough to establish trends and provide sufficient explanatory power. If you had studied statistical methods you would know that.

This is a more comprehensive model than the usual climate model. The Achilles heel of the CO2 models is just that, CO2. When models exclude relevant variables (such as solar cycles), what happens is that the model becomes unstable and produces distorted coefficients for the variables which are included in the model. The distortion can be of an order magnitude of hundreds of percentages, making the unstable model completely worthless. I have discussed this basic problem with several climate scientists, who acknowledge the issue but refuse to go into details. That does not fill me with much confidence that the standard CO2 climate models have a good handle on these issues.

What you say about statistics is true in the general sense, but it's  not correct or useful for describing the behaviour of the data for this specific case.  The problem is that ice cores clearly indicate that temperature and CO2  fluctuations of the sorts we are currently concerned about take place on a scale of hundreds of years - maybe at the most a few thousand.  You cannot model a behavior on that time scale with a small amount of data spread out over 450 million years.  

To use your own previous example of sunspots and solar activity (which have large effects on temperature) you need to be able to get data at least every 2-3 years to be able to even determine that there is a correlationbetween the two, because sunspot and solar cycles tend to take place in 20 to 100 year cycles, and temperature lags by a couple of years.    If you had a data point every million years,  you would conclude that solar cycles did not affect temperature because you would never find any correlation in your data - the time scale on which the changes take place is too short to be visible in the data.  Sampling rates DO matter when you are trying to measure phenomenon that change faster than your sample rate.  

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

17 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Heating, cooling, gasoline, diesel, nuclear fission, area all real dispatchable energy. Wind and solar are supplemental unless the energy is in expensive battery systems. It is not yet fully developed. 

Agreed. The old axiom of getting one foot in the door is being deployed at a alarming rate.

As to batterys I can assure you this Green Community will someday day openly state...it's just a natural part of the evolution...

My thoughts go to getting a bad haircut, you know the one...you look in the mirror and it's WTF!...Then that ever so cute stylist simply states ohh you look so handsome...and younger at That! It has taken 20 yrs off you.

Then you go home, your wife looks at you and just state's...Will you ever learn...and may well ask how much of a tip did you leave...while she strolls off chuckling 

 

Edited December 24, 2021 by Eyes Wide Open

[ronwagn + 6,290]

25 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Personally I am quite surprised by the lack of rebellion in the streets of France or Germany. The citizenship has a long history of low tolerance towards energy misconduct...EV'S on every corner street and yet no energy to heat their homes of keep there industrial production/ jobs afloat.

Maybe tiny homes will take foot in the EU, spurring new growth and jobs..walking away from the insanity carbon emissions...such is life in this ever changing world....or maybe a bounty might well be placed on mantle of this Greenies....

 

 

I bought myself one of those vests for bicycling and possible demonstrations. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

5 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I bought myself one of those vests for bicycling and possible demonstrations. 

Current events does make one wonder what has happened with those people. Perhaps the dark cloud of covid? To much is occurring in this world a convergence of unacceptable failures..

The US auto supply chain is down 70%??? That by itself is mind numbing.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

36 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Personally I am quite surprised by the lack of rebellion in the streets of France or Germany.

Perhaps because they are civilized and you are not? 

The list of stuff you are "surprised" about is very long... focus on your domestic problems before trying to understand the rest of the world.

You probably still think trump won.

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Current events does make one wonder what has happened with those people. Perhaps the dark cloud of covid? To much is occurring in this world a convergence of unacceptable failures..

The US auto supply chain is down 70%??? That by itself is mind numbing.

The "yellow jackets" gave up long ago.  Like years ago... remember failed predictions from insane Tom?

Conservatives are, by definition, stuck in the past.

Edited December 24, 2021 by TailingsPond

[ronwagn + 6,290]

3 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Current events does make one wonder what has happened with those people. Perhaps the dark cloud of covid? To much is occurring in this world a convergence of unacceptable failures..

The US auto supply chain is down 70%??? That by itself is mind numbing.

I feel for all the car salesman that are broke and without a job during Christmas especially. A lot of Christmas jobs will disappear soon too. When robots start making burgers (some do already) things will be clear. 

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

24 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Then you go home, your wife looks at you and just state's...Will you ever learn...and may well ask how much of a tip did you leave...while she strolls off chuckling 

 

 

So your wife thinks you are a joke. 

Proud Boys Unite! LOL

Edited December 24, 2021 by TailingsPond

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

Just now, ronwagn said:

I feel for all the car salesman that are broke and without a job during Christmas especially. A lot of Christmas jobs will disappear soon too. When robots start making burgers (some do already) things will be clear. 

Yeah, making robots is way worse than flipping burgers.

Conservatism sets the youth up for failure. They should be focusing on jobs of the future not ideas of the past.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I feel for all the car salesman that are broke and without a job during Christmas especially. A lot of Christmas jobs will disappear soon too. When robots start making burgers (some do already) things will be clear. 

And fries too.  The friers at a lot of fast food places now are semi automated.  You warm up the frier, and press the button on the front for what the next batch will be (fries, onion rings, chicken nuggets, etc.) then dump the pre measured package of frozen stuff in.  Close the lid, and at the correct end time it dings and you take the stuff out in a built in rack.  This level of automation will start showing up faster and faster with inflation taking off. 

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

9 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

And fries too.  The friers at a lot of fast food places now are semi automated.  You warm up the frier, and press the button on the front for what the next batch will be (fries, onion rings, chicken nuggets, etc.) then dump the pre measured package of frozen stuff in.  Close the lid, and at the correct end time it dings and you take the stuff out in a built in rack.  This level of automation will start showing up faster and faster with inflation taking off. 

It also stops underpaid -often teenage workers- from accidentally getting severe oil burns.

A large pot of hot oil is very, very dangerous in a crowded, busy room with slippery floors.  Look up the burn stats if you want to be horrified.

Edited December 24, 2021 by TailingsPond

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

Yeah, making robots is way worse than flipping burgers.

Conservatism sets the youth up for failure. They should be focusing on jobs of the future not ideas of the past.

There are some people who enjoy flipping burgers and cooking meat. Helping people to get a nice lunch for a reasonable price and in a hurry. 

[TailingsPond + 1,008]

16 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

There are some people who enjoy flipping burgers and cooking meat. Helping people to get a nice lunch for a reasonable price and in a hurry. 

I do enjoy cooking meat. If I get to eat it.

Edited December 24, 2021 by TailingsPond

[Eric Gagen + 713]

20 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

There are some people who enjoy flipping burgers and cooking meat. Helping people to get a nice lunch for a reasonable price and in a hurry. 

Worse yet, there are some people who just aren't fit for doing more complex work.  'Go make robots' is no more an option for them than 'learn to code' is an option for the semi-literate.  This is a real problem, but you can't fix it by halting progress.  I fear that we are headed more and more towards a society set up along medieval lines, with a tiny 'overclass' a small 'productive class' (similar to lesser nobles, merchants and the Church) and a vast 'underclass' that gets by on a mixture of unpleasant odd jobs, and largess from the other classes to prevent excessively revolutionary movements.  This is a bigger issue than just energy issues though.  

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

I feel for all the car salesman that are broke and without a job during Christmas especially. A lot of Christmas jobs will disappear soon too. When robots start making burgers (some do already) things will be clear. 

The sales end of car dealership is a very small picture. Most auto dealerships have several hundred employees...maybe 15 in the sales dept.

Banks are highly dependent upon auto dealerships, the dealerships originate loans.

Part supply chains across this country both build and supply parts...Their numbers range in the millions.

The list is mind numbing...