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GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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(edited)

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The residential-grade wiring is not up to the task anywhere I see)

Really?

You just get a re-charging station fitted at your house and plug it in! No need for re-wiring your house!!

in fact if your cable is long enough you can just plug straight into the wall socket, but not recommended.

Edited by Rob Plant

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8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

It is business as usual. The French are not quitting their nukes, the Germans are not quitting natural gas. Both got no Plan B.

I think the French are in a very strong position as they are self-reliant and dont need a plan B, the Gernans not so much, they need to bend over and take whatever Putin is giving them!

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37 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

I think the French are in a very strong position as they are self-reliant and dont need a plan B, the Gernans not so much, they need to bend over and take whatever Putin is giving them!

Same difference. As the old nukes are retired, the French would need to build some new ones. They don't know how anymore. The state-of-the-art has advanced significantly since than.

From a rational standpoint, the Germans are in about the same position. They don't have to take their existing nukes offline and could start working on updating what they have like yesterday. The German plans are actually newer. Something like 29 years for a German operational plant vs. 37 for French, with original permits issued for 30 years. So, the Germans arguably are merely are retiring theirs on time? Well, except that they stopped in 2017 in the middle of constructing 53 new reactor blocks! Same change of plans. (France has 56 total operational reactor blocks, and they are mostly past their official expiration date, so the Germany was about to move them aside as EU's #1 nuclear power)

"Putin" is giving them long-term contracts with some volume commitments which have always been the industry standard, and new, more efficient, pipelines. In return, "Putin" asks to stop targeted harassment of Russian business. Somehow, the "third energy package" only ever applies to Gazprom (all the other pipelines are getting exemptions, which is a gross violation of WTO bylaws BTW) ditto for requirements to use spot pricing, forced ex-post-facto per Stockholm arbitration (on behalf of Poland and Ukraine) People who are actually in the gas business (any energy "commodity" actually) never actually liked the spot markets. Heck, US LNG providers prefer long-term take-or-pay contracts. The spot market benefits only the speculators (aka "commodity investors") who make out most of the market volume. As usual, why are spot prices selectively forced on Gazprom, but not on LNG? See how the spot market looks now, when Gasprom choose to stay step out for a short period? Plenty of derivatives (here, futures contracts on gas) are available for every aspiring commodity "investor", but not really any principal (here, actual gas) to go around. In this case, time for some margin calls. Haven't you seen something similar a few times before?

Is it too much to ask to be treated like any other business?

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(edited)

26 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Same difference. As the old nukes are retired, the French would need to build some new ones. They don't know how anymore. The state-of-the-art has advanced significantly since than.

Really?

How come EDF are building Hinkley Point C in the UK as we speak (with the help of GE Belfort in France)? And how come they will be building Sizewell C in the UK very soon?

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c/about/reactor

Thats very concerning the UK is spending £40-50B on 2 new nucs being built by the French and they dont know how to make them! 

C'mon Andrei you're better than this!

Most nucs go past their original "expiry date" as long as the core and the rods are OK so there is no reason to build new if the old ones are still fine. If they arent I'm sure they will begin decommissioning the old ones and replace as required.

Germany after Fukushima have had a change in political policy and dont want any nucs. Thats going to be a big problem for them going forward especially if they are to stick to their "green" dream they keep telling the world about. Where are they going to get the powergen from? Renewables? not a chance! 

Edited by Rob Plant
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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Really?

You just get a re-charging station fitted at your house and plug it in! No need for re-wiring your house!!

in fact if your cable is long enough you can just plug straight into the wall socket, but not recommended.

Ugh, not again. European residential wiring is 3-phase ~400 volts, drawing up to 63A. Possibly 80A for a symmetric load, because 63A is really measured on common-mode return on N. This is as much as any house is going to get, even if it is a high rise, or a collection of town houses that spans several blocks, as it is in my case. When some capacity is exceeded, they'll simply repeat more 3+N lines in parallel. In theory, you've got the same exact setup in UK in the most optimistic case, except for 240V/415V

Now, a proper automotive quick charger for 400V draws 120, better yet, 250A. This is seriously industrial grade wiring, even if it is point-to-point. I believe the nominal cross section of all the wires needs to go up to 16mm2 at least, up from 6mm2

Wall sockets?!? Those are restricted to 16A phase-to-neutral (230V) and thus <2.5mm2 cross section wiring. In the practice, official electricians always use 13A breakers here in Austria, presumably for compatibility with dubious British "ring-bus" wiring scheme which may be further upstream. In some very specific circumstances, there are 20A wall sockets in Germany and France, which is probably why all our local hardware stores carry them. So, reasoning that it cannot really be all that illegal here for EU's sake, I've got those and built them in. Spectacular early results! This is how I know about 13A sockets in relation shorting to British ring bus wiring. A single apartment-scale wiring closet of yours can only handle 30A for all phases. (Ours tend to be capped by a nominal 25A rated bottle fuse, which is the largest one available for DIAZED DII socket.  Trivial to circumvent in a number of advanced ways, but the proper Nazi approach would require redoing all the porcelain sockets where they put thermal fuses to something that goes to 63A, like DIII or Neozed) 250A fuses would realistically have to be NH, which are comparatively huge) More then you ever wanted to know about proper Nazi fuses

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schmelzsicherung#D-System_(DIAZED)

(sorry, there is nothing of significance in the English-language version of this article)

Now, over in US, the worst case situation is actually quite a good deal worse than this, due to so called "NEC Class 2 wiring" being acceptable in residential context. Meaning, the wires could be solid aluminum and have no conduits. You want to attach a 100 KW (250A x 400V) class device to any of the above?

Hence, some likely future outcomes of all the EV-related activity

Copper demand goes through the roof, and so does the price (proper rewiring)

OR

Resistive losses in the grids go through the roof in the "last mile", which is not very green at all. Also, increases the fire hazards.

AND

The British (the ring bus aficionados) will discover new and more spectacular varieties of electric fires producing toxic fumes. (If your wiring really is halogen-free, which is an odd property for PVC it is supposed to be, it is some kind of polysulfonate, which is actually worse) Hypothetically, you could be saved by rewiring everything, lets see, FL2G automotive (silicone) insulated wiring

https://www.elandcables.com/cables/fl-standard-wall-automotive-cables

But I don't see this is anybody's building codes. (For a similar power rating to household wiring, automotive FL is rated for smaller voltage at larger current and may melt at a lower temp than magical Euro-PVC (some 150C instead 55C PVC is supposed to melt at according to MSDS), but this does not have to be. This stuff random page

https://www.sab-cable.com/cables-wires-harnessing-temperature-measurement/electrical-cables-and-wires/silicone-cables.html

offers some silicone insulate wiring that is right up there with fluoropolymers (the Teflons) in fire retardation properties. Don't get me wrong, in all actuality  I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes, (my favorite Churchill quite) I am simply sharing this with you such that you can watch how your wiring standards, free from shackles of the EU, develop from halogenated fire retardants, some of which are extremely safe, in the direction of cheap (polysulfonate) marketed as wholesome halogen-free kind. Sorry, Uncle Sam needs you as his guinea pig, on the account of a dead Brit being cheaper than a dead Yankee. Some important peoples (Dow Chemicals' and Dupont's) interests are at stake. See, the market for magical Euronorm PVC which contains nothing but PVC, yet has almost 3x higher melting point than PVC is supposed to appears to be corned by a competing Japanese multinational. I wonder if EU noticed they've been legislating against the laws of nature again? This time, with some degree of success.

Ought not to use anything less than "homogenized" Euro wiring, which is NOT halogen-free, but is the best you gonna get being a Brit. Those be H0x series

https://www.elandcables.com/electrical-cable-and-accessories/cables-by-standard/har-approved-cable

I think this stuff is sufficiently good and plentiful to have squeezed out most other kinds of household wiring outside of US. Which is hopeless. Lets see if you can catch them in the number of patients fried by shoddy wiring?

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(edited)

33 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

except for 240V/415V

were all 240V!

Home charging points in the UK are on every street! I reckon 1 in 50 houses have home charging stations in them at least!

Again why do you need to rewire your house??? This is factually wrong end of story!

Edited by Rob Plant

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ugh, not again. European residential wiring is 3-phase ~400 volts, drawing up to 63A. Possibly 80A for a symmetric load, because 63A is really measured on common-mode return on N. This is as much as any house is going to get, even if it is a high rise, or a collection of town houses that spans several blocks, as it is in my case. When some capacity is exceeded, they'll simply repeat more 3+N lines in parallel. In theory, you've got the same exact setup in UK in the most optimistic case, except for 240V/415V

Now, a proper automotive quick charger for 400V draws 120, better yet, 250A. This is seriously industrial grade wiring, even if it is point-to-point. I believe the nominal cross section of all the wires needs to go up to 16mm2 at least, up from 6mm2

Wall sockets?!? Those are restricted to 16A phase-to-neutral (230V) and thus <2.5mm2 cross section wiring. In the practice, official electricians always use 13A breakers here in Austria, presumably for compatibility with dubious British "ring-bus" wiring scheme which may be further upstream. In some very specific circumstances, there are 20A wall sockets in Germany and France, which is probably why all our local hardware stores carry them. So, reasoning that it cannot really be all that illegal here for EU's sake, I've got those and built them in. Spectacular early results! This is how I know about 13A sockets in relation shorting to British ring bus wiring. A single apartment-scale wiring closet of yours can only handle 30A for all phases. (Ours tend to be capped by a nominal 25A rated bottle fuse, which is the largest one available for DIAZED DII socket.  Trivial to circumvent in a number of advanced ways, but the proper Nazi approach would require redoing all the porcelain sockets where they put thermal fuses to something that goes to 63A, like DIII or Neozed) 250A fuses would realistically have to be NH, which are comparatively huge) More then you ever wanted to know about proper Nazi fuses

https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Schmelzsicherung#D-System_(DIAZED)

(sorry, there is nothing of significance in the English-language version of this article)

Now, over in US, the worst case situation is actually quite a good deal worse than this, due to so called "NEC Class 2 wiring" being acceptable in residential context. Meaning, the wires could be solid aluminum and have no conduits. You want to attach a 100 KW (250A x 400V) class device to any of the above?

Hence, some likely future outcomes of all the EV-related activity

Copper demand goes through the roof, and so does the price (proper rewiring)

OR

Resistive losses in the grids go through the roof in the "last mile", which is not very green at all. Also, increases the fire hazards.

AND

The British (the ring bus aficionados) will discover new and more spectacular varieties of electric fires producing toxic fumes. (If your wiring really is halogen-free, which is an odd property for PVC it is supposed to be, it is some kind of polysulfonate, which is actually worse) Hypothetically, you could be saved by rewiring everything, lets see, FL2G automotive (silicone) insulated wiring

https://www.elandcables.com/cables/fl-standard-wall-automotive-cables

But I don't see this is anybody's building codes. (For a similar power rating to household wiring, automotive FL is rated for smaller voltage at larger current and may melt at a lower temp than magical Euro-PVC (some 150C instead 55C PVC is supposed to melt at according to MSDS), but this does not have to be. This stuff random page

https://www.sab-cable.com/cables-wires-harnessing-temperature-measurement/electrical-cables-and-wires/silicone-cables.html

offers some silicone insulate wiring that is right up there with fluoropolymers (the Teflons) in fire retardation properties. Don't get me wrong, in all actuality  I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes, (my favorite Churchill quite) I am simply sharing this with you such that you can watch how your wiring standards, free from shackles of the EU, develop from halogenated fire retardants, some of which are extremely safe, in the direction of cheap (polysulfonate) marketed as wholesome halogen-free kind. Sorry, Uncle Sam needs you as his guinea pig, on the account of a dead Brit being cheaper than a dead Yankee. Some important peoples (Dow Chemicals' and Dupont's) interests are at stake. See, the market for magical Euronorm PVC which contains nothing but PVC, yet has almost 3x higher melting point than PVC is supposed to appears to be corned by a competing Japanese multinational. I wonder if EU noticed they've been legislating against the laws of nature again? This time, with some degree of success.

Ought not to use anything less than "homogenized" Euro wiring, which is NOT halogen-free, but is the best you gonna get being a Brit. Those be H0x series

https://www.elandcables.com/electrical-cable-and-accessories/cables-by-standard/har-approved-cable

I think this stuff is sufficiently good and plentiful to have squeezed out most other kinds of household wiring outside of US. Which is hopeless. Lets see if you can catch them in the number of patients fried by shoddy wiring?

That may be the case in Europe, and it is the case in the US in older areas, but most newer construction in the US have 100, 150 or 200 amp panels. Charging is usually broken into 3 classifications:

https://www.forbes.com/wheels/advice/ev-charging-levels/

Class 1:  very slow, plugged into a 'normal' outlet, and you get what you get - basically only useful in emergencies, or if there are no better options.

Class 2: 40 or 80 amps current draw on a 50 or 100 amp circuit - typical for at home chargers - can charge up your vehicle in 6-12 hours.

Class 3: fast charging at a commercial charging station - this seems to be what you are envisioning a need for, but it's not necessary for home use - we tend to be at home a lot (even if only at night) and you can afford to spend more time charging. .

The huge difference between the US and Europe is the recent rate of population growth, and new housing construction.  Over 1/2 of the US housing stock has been constructed after 1994, and in areas which have seen the most population growth it is younger than that.  For example in my region,  about 90% of the homes are less than 20 years old, and all of them have 200 amp breaker boxes installed, primarily to be able to handle air conditioning loads.  

  All of these houses are already set up to draw enough power to charge EV's.  The ones which are not are older construction which tends to be in densely populated urban areas.  Not coincidentally, these are also the houses/areas which tend not to have personally owned parking anyway, so these areas and people are going to have public charging areas set up.  This is already taking place - for example many parking structures in my area have been retrofitted with EV charging stations which will charge your vehicle (for a fee of course) while you work or shop or whatever.  

At least from an infrastructure perspective, the US has the 'last mile' covered pretty well.  there will have to be adjustments in the demand curve for electricity, but that is far more workable.  Most EV charging takes place at night when general electricity demand tends to be low, so the system should be able to handle it reasonably well.  

Edited by Eric Gagen

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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

were all 240V!

Home charging points in the UK are on every street! I reckon 1 in 50 houses have home charging stations in them at least!

Again why do you need to rewire your house??? This is factually wrong end of story!

He may be correct in continental Europe, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else .  

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9 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

He may be correct in continental Europe, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else .  

You mean wrong like France dont know how to build nucs anymore🤣

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(edited)

15 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

You mean wrong like France dont know how to build nucs anymore🤣

No - he is probably right.  A LOT of older housing stock have electrical service and panels that would be considered grossly inadequate by modern standards.  It will require upgrading to meet the new needs of the world.  Houses built in the era where the main need for power were electric lights were/are insufficient for the world where everyone has washers, dryers, toasters and refrigerators.  Houses built without the expectation of electric cars will also need upgrades.  This is especially the case in Europe.

In large parts of the world (outside europe at least) modern buildings are constructed with sufficient power supply to be able to run whole house/building air conditioning and HVAC  systems.  In areas where the climate makes these attractive, they are by far the largest current drawing item, and most homes with one will have 150 or 200 amp service.  The beauty of this is that these systems run intermittently as needed, and that the biggest amperage draw is on startup.  Most of the capacity is unused, most of the time which means that it is available for EV charging.

Europe is a different story - it's mostly cool enough that HVAC systems aren't required - only heating.  For areas with electric heat,  they probably have enough capacity to charge EV's already, but for areas which have relied on steam distribution systems or gas for heating, their electrical infrastructure is going to be woefully inadequate. 

This is also going to be the case in the Northeast of the US, some parts of the upper midwest and large parts of California where it rarely gets warm enough to require air conditioning.

Edited by Eric Gagen
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8 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

No - he is probably right.  A LOT of older housing stock have electrical service and panels that would be considered grossly inadequate by modern standards.  It will require upgrading to meet the new needs of the world.  Houses built in the era where the main need for power were electric lights were/are insufficient for the world where everyone has washers, dryers, toasters and refrigerators.  Houses built without the expectation of electric cars will also need upgrades.  This is especially the case in Europe.

In large parts of the world (outside europe at least) modern buildings are constructed with sufficient power supply to be able to run whole house/building air conditioning and HVAC  systems.  In areas where the climate makes these attractive, they are by far the largest current drawing item, and most homes with one will have 150 or 200 amp service.  The beauty of this is that these systems run intermittently as needed, and that the biggest amperage draw is on startup.  Most of the capacity is unused, most of the time which means that it is available for EV charging.

Europe is a different story - it's mostly cool enough that HVAC systems aren't required - only heating.  For areas with electric heat,  they probably have enough capacity to charge EV's already, but for areas which have relied on steam distribution systems or gas for heating, their electrical infrastructure is going to be woefully inadequate. 

This is also going to be the case in the Northeast of the US, some parts of the upper midwest and large parts of California where it rarely gets warm enough to require air conditioning.

Well it isnt in the UK thats for sure

Maybe mainland Europe it is different as the housing mostly looks sub-standard anyway, frankly I dont care!

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1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

Really?

How come EDF are building Hinkley Point C in the UK as we speak (with the help of GE Belfort in France)? And how come they will be building Sizewell C in the UK very soon?

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/hinkley-point-c/about/reactor

Thats very concerning the UK is spending £40-50B on 2 new nucs being built by the French and they dont know how to make them! 

C'mon Andrei you're better than this!

Most nucs go past their original "expiry date" as long as the core and the rods are OK so there is no reason to build new if the old ones are still fine. If they arent I'm sure they will begin decommissioning the old ones and replace as required.

Germany after Fukushima have had a change in political policy and dont want any nucs. Thats going to be a big problem for them going forward especially if they are to stick to their "green" dream they keep telling the world about. Where are they going to get the powergen from? Renewables? not a chance! 

C'mon Rob, we already discussed this. The EDF is simply putting their name on it. The Chinese are the ones actually building it. EDF was never a builder of reactors, but an operator of them. I supposed they picked up the assets of Areva, the actual builder, who went bankrupt trying. Ditto for later days Westinghouse (a division of Japanese Toshiba) Similarly to EDF, the Americans got the customer/operator trying to salvage a project on their own. I think it is this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant

Therefore, the only completed and operational projects done to Areva's spec or Westinghouse's spec exist in China. The Chinks have figured out how to fix those lemons on their own and are presumably pimping such a service to anybody involved. You want it to work anytime soon? You let the Chinese do their thing.

Yes, most nukes can be extended to beyond the originally expected lifetime. You cannot simply call the can and rods A-OK and be done with it. That's up to IAEA to decide. The later gen reactors are not gonna have any modulating rods. No externally operated electrical or mechanical actuators allowed. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

The rejection of nukes is not really a home-made German policy. The European greens, in general, are a Trojan horse of the "Atlantic bridge", pushing American interests ahead of local ones. Which would be a) remove the competitiveness of European industries. Especially German. Yours has already been removed b) Crowd out genuinely left-wing political forces by picking up their most popular but least practical causes (free money for everyone!)

All of Western politics is pretty much AstroTurf, but at least it is commercial. You want the population to have a specific opinion? You pay for it. In German case, there is actually a direct remote micromanagement of all their media and educational establishment.  This is how you get to the situation, where even the German government's own official propaganda media they finance, like DW,  is whacking their precious commercial interests like North Stream 2.  Somebody in US or UK has ordered them to.

Power generation is only some 23% of German energy use. The rest is heat. Renewable electricity is not a direct substitute, you will need a lot more. "Fossil fuels" are also required as a feedstocks for nearly everything. How long can you live without synthetic fertilizers? Without plastic packaging? Without disposable diapers? Don't believe for a second that you can. USSR lived like that for decades. All the packaging was made out of natural materials only or was reusable, there were no throwaway items around. Even if you can, not a lifestyle conductive to highest productivity. I still remember not having a washing machine and doing my laundry by hand. What a waste of time.

Also, check these interesting metrics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption

which I find a very interesting metric of intrinsic economic strength much better than BS GDP obtained by modern post-industrial service economy. That stuff obviously doesn't do anything. Did you notice how the hair stylists for non-binary gendered pets have been closed for the last couple of years and thus did not contribute to the GDP? How come there is not much of an effect?

Google also knows how to plot these over time, if you ask for "countryname energy use per capita" You can see that most of the "1st word economies"  which have been flat, are now tanking. And have been for a few years. Those who did grow, like Germany, are now flat. Specifically the UK is in decline since like 1980-ties. Still couldn't fix what auntie Thatcher broke, eh? Otherwise, there is a strong correlation with being conventionally rich and/or having a Nordic climate.

Check out the self-serving interpretation of how higher per capita energy use strongly corresponds to being socially progressive. Which gets all the rich Scandinavian countries and Switzerland on top. Based on 2003 data though.

Now, we've got an outrigger in Russia, which is now showing up among the most energy rich countries. Ought to be among the most socially responsible countries there are. With like 2x per capita energy use of Switzerland now. Has it been doing something else? Nope. Actually, it's been about flat since the last days of USSR! So, it is the rest of the world (or just the developed world?)

Now, an even closer look at the rich, Nordic and allegedly socially responsible countries reveals a very recent bifurcation. Upward trend only for the energy exporting ones. Norway, Canada. In the other hemisphere Australia (for some reason also NZ. must be nicking some Aussie stuff) Downward trends for Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Uncle Sam is flat (but still very generously sized)

I like the unit, too. kilograms of oil equivalent. Take several tons to support each one of us. (whopping 17 tons to support an Islander) In general, I take this as a sign of regress of the Western civilization in general. This parameter has been growing for most of the humanity's existence. Let's look at some conventionally (well) developing economies, say, the rest of BRICS. Clearly upwards trend for all. Exponential growth for China (still not quite caught up with Russia) See, none of those countries have any kind of surplus energy to export, quite on the contrary. OK, lets look at traditional export driven tigers. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Significant upward trend, despite energy deficiency. So, there is still some life in development model that involves flooding your markets with manufactured goods in exchange for your progressively worthless scrip. Lets look at ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam...) Significant upward trend. Whatever it is they do right, it isn't energy exports (except for Brunei) I am getting an impression that all of the peoples of slanty-eyed persuasion are  riding the Chinese steamroller, whether they want it or not. Except for Japan. Is with the wrong crowd. Per capita energy use trend downward. Nothing to do with Fukushima, the start was around 2000.

Thus, I motion to remove the unnecessary abstraction of USD, the worth of which is difficult to access and replace it with a kg of oil equivalent. Which is also some amount of joules or watts, but is less intuitive. By that metric, is an average Russian richer than overwhelming majority of citizens of the EU. Scandinavian level rich. All that by simply staying at about 1990 level. That's 2nd world for you. We are obviously observing a massive redistribution of wealth away from the has beens. You really should lose the chip on your shoulder. Newton and Watt were revelation al. Winnie the Pooh also all right. But that was a while back. What have you done for us lately, has beens? As somebody else astutely noticed, all the Russians (and the Chinese) need to do is to loose their inferiority complex. They are programmed to kowtow to anything Western and don't know their own strength. (The Chinese are even worse. For them, Russians are also the collective imperialist West) So, they are willing to fix your bugs incognito and give the credit to EDF. You should be grateful for this. Better yet, you should be learning from them. The GenIII+ reactors really don't have much in common with what you were building 30 years ago. The Chinese are also engaged in their recently favorite sport. Lets sign up all the important Western vendors (including Rosatom) and make the official best-off collection of everything. Like what if you could attack an Armata's turret to an F-16? Seems to have worked with rail traction. The Chinese bullet train is a simultaneous knockoff of best practices of Siemens, Alstrom and Bombardier and better than either  of them. Are you impressed? I am not really. I think all they uncovered is that those guys were a cartel to start with who were holding the latest tech back / had various vested interests groups overdue for refactoring.

 

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1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

C'mon Rob, we already discussed this. The EDF is simply putting their name on it. The Chinese are the ones actually building it. EDF was never a builder of reactors, but an operator of them. I supposed they picked up the assets of Areva, the actual builder, who went bankrupt trying. Ditto for later days Westinghouse (a division of Japanese Toshiba) Similarly to EDF, the Americans got the customer/operator trying to salvage a project on their own. I think it is this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant

Therefore, the only completed and operational projects done to Areva's spec or Westinghouse's spec exist in China. The Chinks have figured out how to fix those lemons on their own and are presumably pimping such a service to anybody involved. You want it to work anytime soon? You let the Chinese do their thing.

Yes, most nukes can be extended to beyond the originally expected lifetime. You cannot simply call the can and rods A-OK and be done with it. That's up to IAEA to decide. The later gen reactors are not gonna have any modulating rods. No externally operated electrical or mechanical actuators allowed. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

The rejection of nukes is not really a home-made German policy. The European greens, in general, are a Trojan horse of the "Atlantic bridge", pushing American interests ahead of local ones. Which would be a) remove the competitiveness of European industries. Especially German. Yours has already been removed b) Crowd out genuinely left-wing political forces by picking up their most popular but least practical causes (free money for everyone!)

All of Western politics is pretty much AstroTurf, but at least it is commercial. You want the population to have a specific opinion? You pay for it. In German case, there is actually a direct remote micromanagement of all their media and educational establishment.  This is how you get to the situation, where even the German government's own official propaganda media they finance, like DW,  is whacking their precious commercial interests like North Stream 2.  Somebody in US or UK has ordered them to.

Power generation is only some 23% of German energy use. The rest is heat. Renewable electricity is not a direct substitute, you will need a lot more. "Fossil fuels" are also required as a feedstocks for nearly everything. How long can you live without synthetic fertilizers? Without plastic packaging? Without disposable diapers? Don't believe for a second that you can. USSR lived like that for decades. All the packaging was made out of natural materials only or was reusable, there were no throwaway items around. Even if you can, not a lifestyle conductive to highest productivity. I still remember not having a washing machine and doing my laundry by hand. What a waste of time.

Also, check these interesting metrics.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_electricity_consumption

which I find a very interesting metric of intrinsic economic strength much better than BS GDP obtained by modern post-industrial service economy. That stuff obviously doesn't do anything. Did you notice how the hair stylists for non-binary gendered pets have been closed for the last couple of years and thus did not contribute to the GDP? How come there is not much of an effect?

Google also knows how to plot these over time, if you ask for "countryname energy use per capita" You can see that most of the "1st word economies"  which have been flat, are now tanking. And have been for a few years. Those who did grow, like Germany, are now flat. Specifically the UK is in decline since like 1980-ties. Still couldn't fix what auntie Thatcher broke, eh? Otherwise, there is a strong correlation with being conventionally rich and/or having a Nordic climate.

Check out the self-serving interpretation of how higher per capita energy use strongly corresponds to being socially progressive. Which gets all the rich Scandinavian countries and Switzerland on top. Based on 2003 data though.

Now, we've got an outrigger in Russia, which is now showing up among the most energy rich countries. Ought to be among the most socially responsible countries there are. With like 2x per capita energy use of Switzerland now. Has it been doing something else? Nope. Actually, it's been about flat since the last days of USSR! So, it is the rest of the world (or just the developed world?)

Now, an even closer look at the rich, Nordic and allegedly socially responsible countries reveals a very recent bifurcation. Upward trend only for the energy exporting ones. Norway, Canada. In the other hemisphere Australia (for some reason also NZ. must be nicking some Aussie stuff) Downward trends for Finland, Sweden and Denmark. Uncle Sam is flat (but still very generously sized)

I like the unit, too. kilograms of oil equivalent. Take several tons to support each one of us. (whopping 17 tons to support an Islander) In general, I take this as a sign of regress of the Western civilization in general. This parameter has been growing for most of the humanity's existence. Let's look at some conventionally (well) developing economies, say, the rest of BRICS. Clearly upwards trend for all. Exponential growth for China (still not quite caught up with Russia) See, none of those countries have any kind of surplus energy to export, quite on the contrary. OK, lets look at traditional export driven tigers. South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore. Significant upward trend, despite energy deficiency. So, there is still some life in development model that involves flooding your markets with manufactured goods in exchange for your progressively worthless scrip. Lets look at ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam...) Significant upward trend. Whatever it is they do right, it isn't energy exports (except for Brunei) I am getting an impression that all of the peoples of slanty-eyed persuasion are  riding the Chinese steamroller, whether they want it or not. Except for Japan. Is with the wrong crowd. Per capita energy use trend downward. Nothing to do with Fukushima, the start was around 2000.

Thus, I motion to remove the unnecessary abstraction of USD, the worth of which is difficult to access and replace it with a kg of oil equivalent. Which is also some amount of joules or watts, but is less intuitive. By that metric, is an average Russian richer than overwhelming majority of citizens of the EU. Scandinavian level rich. All that by simply staying at about 1990 level. That's 2nd world for you. We are obviously observing a massive redistribution of wealth away from the has beens. You really should lose the chip on your shoulder. Newton and Watt were revelation al. Winnie the Pooh also all right. But that was a while back. What have you done for us lately, has beens? As somebody else astutely noticed, all the Russians (and the Chinese) need to do is to loose their inferiority complex. They are programmed to kowtow to anything Western and don't know their own strength. (The Chinese are even worse. For them, Russians are also the collective imperialist West) So, they are willing to fix your bugs incognito and give the credit to EDF. You should be grateful for this. Better yet, you should be learning from them. The GenIII+ reactors really don't have much in common with what you were building 30 years ago. The Chinese are also engaged in their recently favorite sport. Lets sign up all the important Western vendors (including Rosatom) and make the official best-off collection of everything. Like what if you could attack an Armata's turret to an F-16? Seems to have worked with rail traction. The Chinese bullet train is a simultaneous knockoff of best practices of Siemens, Alstrom and Bombardier and better than either  of them. Are you impressed? I am not really. I think all they uncovered is that those guys were a cartel to start with who were holding the latest tech back / had various vested interests groups overdue for refactoring.

 

Nope the Chinese are just stumping up some cash, buiding nothing!

I added the link about the reactor but I guess you didnt read it, never mind!

The point originally was made by you incorrectly that France cant build any new nucs. This was a silly statement as even if they couldnt build the reactor (which they can) they can outsource this or have collaboration with others that can.

To be honest your posts are so long that I only read the first parts as you tend to go off on tangents and off point too often.

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Even more apparent is that you have no concept of the maintenance difference between an EV and ICE.

Ohh Mr Mckinsey how Contraire. Around 2007/10 I was involved in implementing a new staff trained to service EV's..and Accountability. Without going into the minutiae I can tell you with clarity EV service is unsustainable. 

That is the foundational reasoning for Musk to skirt factory service centers. Had he been made accountable for service his brand it would have game over. "I'm Out" comes to mind, and that day of accountability is soon approaching

To coin a old automotive mantra, "Out Running Your Charge Backs" That time has come.

 

A mantra is a motivating chant, like the “I think I can, I think I can” you repeat over and over to yourself on the last stretch of every marathon you run. A mantra is usually any repeated word or phrase, but it can also refer more specifically to a word repeated in meditation.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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22 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Nope the Chinese are just stumping up some cash, buiding nothing!

I added the link about the reactor but I guess you didnt read it, never mind!

The point originally was made by you incorrectly that France cant build any new nucs. This was a silly statement as even if they couldnt build the reactor (which they can) they can outsource this or have collaboration with others that can.

To be honest your posts are so long that I only read the first parts as you tend to go off on tangents and off point too often.

Alright, I'll keep it short for you. I know exactly who is building it. There is no point in reading any EDF corporate marketing materials claiming otherwise.

EDF is normally a utility company. The reactor's developer was this company

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Areva

which now apparently exists again, but has been nationalized by the French government. The part that designed and built reactors was spun off as

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Framatome (75% EDF, 20% Mitsubishi)

Note that big part of the reason they went belly up in 2016 was that they failed to deliver. The company was bankrupt and in international arbitration over liabilities in 2016. If the Chinese hadn't figure out how to finish the stuff, they'd be toast.

Here, the pilot project they started in 2005.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Olkiluoto_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3

which I suppose is getting finished just about now. Over a decade late and with a price tag of €11 bln instead of  €3. That's a relatively small one, good for 880MW

Bigger EWR in France itself. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plant#Unit_3

Started 2007, supposed to be done 2012, but hoping for end of 2022 now. This one is cranked up to 1600 MW. €19 bln instead of €3.3 bln original sticker price.

Now, look at the variation the Chinese finished on their own.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taishan_Nuclear_Power_Plant

2 blocks o' 1750 MW each, a world record! Started in 2008 and 2009, finished 2018.

The same year the Chinese finished, your project started, You think it is a coincidence? Here, for your convenience.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hinkley_Point_C_nuclear_power_station

Good for 2 × 1,630, and most astronomical cost overruns yet, whatever they are.

You simply assuming that somebody can simply pick up where they left 30 years ago? But you can't. Modern reactors are not like that anymore. No control rods good to go after 30 years for a few years more. Feedbacked devices requiring external actuation by electrical or mechanical means are no longer considered safe. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passive_nuclear_safety

Well, I suppose those are GenIII, not GenIII+ (inherently Fukushima-safe) Design getting a bit outdated again, meanwhile.

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14 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Ohh Mr Mckinsey how Contraire. Around 2007/10 I was involved in implementing a new staff trained to service EV's..and Accountability. Without going into the minutiae I can tell you with clarity EV service is unsustainable. 

That is the foundational reasoning for Musk to skirt factory service centers. Had he been made accountable for service his brand it would have game over. "I'm Out" comes to mind, and that day of accountability is soon approaching

To coin a old automotive mantra, "Out Running Your Charge Backs" That time has come.

 

A mantra is a motivating chant, like the “I think I can, I think I can” you repeat over and over to yourself on the last stretch of every marathon you run. A mantra is usually any repeated word or phrase, but it can also refer more specifically to a word repeated in meditation.

What is true for Musk, does not have to be for EVs in general.

Musk never even tried to build a car. It is a laptop on wheels. Anything that requires any kind of manufacturing expertise, they'll avoid like the plague. Just upload the latest firmware and you are good to go. Or not. Replace everything than. Never actually drove a Tesla, but got a strong suspicion that their works navigation UI does not suck. Like it always does when the car guys are making it.

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2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What is true for Musk, does not have to be for EVs in general.

Musk never even tried to build a car. It is a laptop on wheels. Anything that requires any kind of manufacturing expertise, they'll avoid like the plague. Just upload the latest firmware and you are good to go. Or not. Replace everything than. Never actually drove a Tesla, but got a strong suspicion that their works navigation UI does not suck. Like it always does when the car guys are making it.

A precursor to as to what's coming.

Ghosted by Tesla: Customers say Tesla's ultrasleek, expensive Solar Roofs and panels come with nightmare customer service, often leaving them with unanswered calls and emails for months on end

He didn't expect Tesla to bump up the price from $70,000 to $145,000 before the roof was up and ignore his calls to customer service.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-solar-roof-panels-cost-energy-nightmare-customer-service-2021-5

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4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

were all 240V!

Home charging points in the UK are on every street! I reckon 1 in 50 houses have home charging stations in them at least!

Again why do you need to rewire your house??? This is factually wrong end of story!

I know. You should have the same exact setup as continental Europe, but at a slightly higher voltage. 240V is your phase to neutral. You should have all 3 phases entering your place somewhere, so you should be using phase-2-phase of 240V x Sqrt[3] = 415V instead.

To recap, we were talking about recharging Tesla (significantly powerful devices) and doing it fast. You seem to be describing some kind of extension of a household socket? This goes best with an electric scooter perhaps.

There are specific gauges of wire which go with specific power levels.  Household socket wiring is pretty hopeless. Therefore, is the correct location to tap your most upstream distribution box. There, you've got all the phases and thickest wires (which BTW equates to lowest resistance) The only problem is that there is no official household-grade socket to connect anything multiphase in there, everything has to be wired shut. There are the huge and fugly IEC sockets they use on construction sites (yours are likely yellow and ours red) and possibly something specifically designed for EV chargers? Know nothing about those, but they tend to be for DC officially.

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4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

He may be correct in continental Europe, but that's not necessarily true everywhere else .  

They've got the same wiring standards, largely. Most of it is part of so-called "harmonized standards"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/harmonised-standard

Which UK has been cheerfully participating in up until Brexit. The primary BS (British Standard) contribution is the body of work on electrical fires developing noxious fumes. Thanks to this contraption

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ring_circuit

intended to save on copper. Only happens at the lowest residential distribution level, connecting indoor sockets, which ought to limit the number of fried Brits produced at once. Not scalable beyond a single townhouse or so. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grenfell_Tower_fire

The upstream bits are largely Nazi-sourced. Or rather, a sweet continental-based cartel arrangement going back to this particular organization

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AEG

aka Deutsche-Edison society for Practical Electricity. The connection to Edison Edison unclear, but highly likely. You are welcome to enlighten me what happened to his budding electrical distribution monopoly? Got busted before Ma Bell or something? I remember seeing old manhole covers saying "California Edison" in Bay Area, obviously without the Southern.

The VP Engineering CTO was this Russian guy best known for inventing the squirrel-cage rotor that starts out shorted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mikhail_Dolivo-Dobrovolsky#Invention_of_the_three-phase_system

but also for a whole bunch of other stuff related specifically to 3-phase rotating currents. So much for Edison being a strong believer in DC all the way :)

It is just an Electrolux-family brand available for rent these days. The vacuum cleaners are a front for GE turbine guys BTW, engaging in guilty pleasures of designing consumer grade devices, So, there are a couple of American companies who are in on it, but don't think anybody British. So, they do what the Nazis tell them to.

This stuff is more or less worldwide. US is the only place which does its own thing, but not always.

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4 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Well it isnt in the UK thats for sure

Maybe mainland Europe it is different as the housing mostly looks sub-standard anyway, frankly I dont care!

Your distribution system is exactly same as mainland Europe. Only crappier. The difference is largely at the lowest residential level only, where you've got your ring circuits and oversized square sockets de-rated to 13A.  (these are related)

It is called "harmonized EU standards" on electrical thingamajigs

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5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You mean wrong like France dont know how to build nucs anymore🤣

I am right. The French (Areva NP) so didn't know that how to build more nukes, that they were being liquidated over the non-deliverables as recent as 2016 and sued for billions in damages. The Chinese are the only ones who got a European Pressurized Reactor project to complete thus far, by themselves, which was 2018. Also beat the world record on output power while they were at it. The same year, your project got started. and is obviously a derivative of the Chinese mod. EDF is the 75% owner of Areva's leftovers, which the French government dusted off and refloated by now.

Whether the French are capable of building the same GenII reactors they were building 30 years ago is immaterial. You MAY not build them anymore. Newer safety regs are supposed to take into account everything bad what happened between Chernobyl and Fukushima and make sure there is no way for that to happen again. There is some amount of R&D involved in raising up to the occasion, which the French significantly underestimated. Hey, Westinghouse did it twice, first as American and than as Japanese organization,

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(edited)

This is what happens when a nation or nations declare war on oil...the price goes up and up.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Is-100-Oil-On-The-Horizon.html

"The analysts also pointed to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies including Russia (OPEC+) consistently missing production quotas.

Despite committing to increase supplies by 400,000 oil barrels per day, production has been hovering 35 percent below expected levels, even though demand has only increased.

OPEC still envisages a 4.15m barrel per day increase in global oil demand this year, with a daily average demand worldwide of 28.9m barrels per day.

While previous expectations were of an oversupply this quarter, this would require OPEC to boost supplies consistently around 250,000 every day this month, way below expectations but still challenging for the organsation.

Commerzbank said: “OPEC is still unable to achieve this: in December, production increased by a mere 170,000 barrels per day. The output of those OPEC countries that have signed up to the agreement is now 629,000 barrels per day below the agreed level.”

Meanwhile, festering geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine could also further boost prices and increase supply shortages, with tensions straining supply chains and causing severe economic turbulence."

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

7 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Biden & Co. have again failed to understand how markets work...simply shuffling barrels around does nothing.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Market-Shrugs-Off-Bidens-Readiness-To-Tackle-Oil-Price-Rally.html

When they quit printing trillions and handing it out like candy, this price will keep going up. Quit printing and sell 100mmb outta the SPR for 40 a barrel might make the market drop 6-8 dollars per bbl. Ford has 72 month (6years) 0% financing on f-150's. Free borrowing?? Not a good sign for the economy..... hence the rise in all commodities and goods. 30 year fixed mortgage with decent credit is 3.25%, again...damn near free money. Banks used to pay you to save money, alot now charge unless you have 10k or better in an account. 

Edited by Old-Ruffneck
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(edited)

2 hours ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

When they quit printing trillions and handing it out like candy, this price will keep going up. Quit printing and sell 100mmb outta the SPR for 40 a barrel might make the market drop 6-8 dollars per bbl. Ford has 72 month (6years) 0% financing on f-150's. Free borrowing?? Not a good sign for the economy..... hence the rise in all commodities and goods. 30 year fixed mortgage with decent credit is 3.25%, again...damn near free money. Banks used to pay you to save money, alot now charge unless you have 10k or better in an account. 

The US government doesn’t have enough oil in the Strategic Petroleim Reserves to influence prices in the long term like this - printing money or not.  It’s utter foolishness.  Save the SPR for a real supply emergency like a Russia starting a war or a giant volcanic eruption or a revolution in Saudi Arabia.   Don’t use it on fruitless attempts at manipulating the 6 week futures strip.  That’s not what it’s for.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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