GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, notsonice said:

what are you babbling about now? ....the grid is under-utilized from 9 PM to 7 AM and the grid is under utilized at peak time (9 AM to 7 PM) except in July and August. Grid handles peak demand of 650 and drops to a low of 420 in July ....... coupled with most utilities are installing smart meters ....so you will get a lower price for electrical use during the night...... The grid is more than capable of handling EV charging for the foreseeable future. Get back to us in 10 years with your fantasy that ...... the neighborhood grid needs an upgrade in most locations.......

 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
Note: Data shown represent the average aggregate U.S. hourly load (Eastern Standard Time) by day of the week for the months indicated between 2015 and 2019.

What about the fact that wind and solar are either diminished or not produced at all during the night, in most cases. Battery or other backup is not yet much of a factor. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

9 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Well, eventually they'll be building some again. So far, Macron barely puffed up.

Interesting that. Nobody is forcing them to follow through with closures as if there was no crisis. Neither is "Putin" forcing anyone to buy Russian gas. It is more affordable than LNG. Obviously a tool of malign Russian influence, then!

Yes it will be malign influence if Russia insists on being a bad actor rather than a good neighbor. He is harming his own people in the process. 

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,180]

12 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Sounds oddly familiar to your last wrong prediction.

*hint* more than a year has passed and you're still wrong, just not screaming as much.

It's time to eat crow like you promised.

Well gabby do plz enlighten me as to my prediction. This should be most interesting.

[Eric Gagen + 712]

25 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

What about the fact that wind and solar are either diminished or not produced at all during the night, in most cases. Battery or other backup is not yet much of a factor. 

In the short term (ex next 20 years or so) at least in North America it will be wind or solar during the day depending on location, then some mix of wind, nuclear, hydro and natural gas at night.  Especially in the Great Plains the wind doesn’t slow down that much at night - it’s still a pretty effective power source even then.

 

after that who knows.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 minute ago, Eric Gagen said:

In the short term (ex next 20 years or so) at least in North America it will be wind or solar during the day depending on location, then some mix of wind, nuclear, hydro and natural gas at night.  Especially in the Great Plains the wind doesn’t slow down that much at night - it’s still a pretty effective power source even then.

 

after that who knows.

I am feeling much more confident that the politicians are seeing the fallacy of trying to make the changes too fast now. They must realize that it will not help their party to succeed if they fail at the most basic needs of the populace. 

It is still concerning that they may not make the grid as "bullet proof" as it should be. I want backups to the backups. That can be done in many different ways with all the new and old technologies. I doubt it will be sufficiently considered. Individuals may have to help themselves for that level of security. 

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,109]

18 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

The US government doesn’t have enough oil in the Strategic Petroleim Reserves to influence prices in the long term like this - printing money or not.  It’s utter foolishness.  Save the SPR for a real supply emergency like a Russia starting a war or a giant volcanic eruption or a revolution in Saudi Arabia.   Don’t use it on fruitless attempts at manipulating the 6 week futures strip.  That’s not what it’s for.  

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (United States) - Wikipedia

Please read on the SPR and get back to me.  Crap crude (sour) makes up about half the reserves. It's what the producers send to the reserves as the "Powers that Be"  mandates it. So they ship the crap crude to fill up the reserves.  Here is another article to ponder,

U.S. Crude Exports Boom Amid Recovering Global Demand | OilPrice.com

 

[Eric Gagen + 712]

18 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Strategic Petroleum Reserve (United States) - Wikipedia

Please read on the SPR and get back to me.  Crap crude (sour) makes up about half the reserves. It's what the producers send to the reserves as the "Powers that Be"  mandates it. So they ship the crap crude to fill up the reserves.  Here is another article to ponder,

U.S. Crude Exports Boom Amid Recovering Global Demand | OilPrice.com

 

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

Edited January 21 by Eric Gagen

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Bank-Of-America-Predicts-Tesla-Market-Share-To-Collapse-In-Next-Few-Years.html

[Old-Ruffneck + 1,109]

16 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

I can tell you I have/had back in 70's worked on pipelines that went to the SPR and the salt caves where we extracted and left empty the caves was by luck, not planned. Late 70's when I was rough-necking we would hit "salt domes" and go several hundred feet and lose all mud and pressure. But under the domes is good probability of striking oil soon. This happened many times when I worked on rigs all throughout the Permian until mid 80's when Reagans "windfall profits tax" pretty much killed the oil industry for many years. I can say that 10 years in the oil business I learned alot. I even worked at the Midland refinery for very short time, so yes I do undersand as they pretty much do the same as 40+ yrs ago.

[Eric Gagen + 712]

46 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

I can tell you I have/had back in 70's worked on pipelines that went to the SPR and the salt caves where we extracted and left empty the caves was by luck, not planned. Late 70's when I was rough-necking we would hit "salt domes" and go several hundred feet and lose all mud and pressure. But under the domes is good probability of striking oil soon. This happened many times when I worked on rigs all throughout the Permian until mid 80's when Reagans "windfall profits tax" pretty much killed the oil industry for many years. I can say that 10 years in the oil business I learned alot. I even worked at the Midland refinery for very short time, so yes I do undersand as they pretty much do the same as 40+ yrs ago.

Yeah definately having the domes was a case of good luck.  I haven’t worked the SPR but I did get to go visit the LOOP facility which is a very large privately owned salt dome facility near Houma LA with a similar setup.  I was visiting to inspect the facility to bid on some work but we didn’t get the contracts.  

[notsonice + 656]

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

What about the fact that wind and solar are either diminished or not produced at all during the night, in most cases. Battery or other backup is not yet much of a factor. 

winds at night not producing ......hmmmmm it really looks like winds in December are best at Midnight and at its worst at midday...from the chart below...........the bigger problem is the variation from day to day as the chart below is for the whole 48 states real production. I will try to find a chart for July when it really matters the most

https://www.eia.gov/electricity/gridmonitor/expanded-view/electric_overview/US48/US48/GenerationByEnergySource-4/edit

 

peak in wind production is 1 to 3 in the morning in July every day and low point is 5 pm ....go figure

 

Edited January 21 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 918]

5 hours ago, notsonice said:

what are you babbling about now? ....the grid is under-utilized from 9 PM to 7 AM and the grid is under utilized at peak time (9 AM to 7 PM) except in July and August. Grid handles peak demand of 650 and drops to a low of 420 in July ....... coupled with most utilities are installing smart meters ....so you will get a lower price for electrical use during the night...... The grid is more than capable of handling EV charging for the foreseeable future. Get back to us in 10 years with your fantasy that ...... the neighborhood grid needs an upgrade in most locations.......

 

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, U.S. Hourly Electric Grid Monitor
Note: Data shown represent the average aggregate U.S. hourly load (Eastern Standard Time) by day of the week for the months indicated between 2015 and 2019.

No, your numbers do not add up.

There is overload with universal overnight charging.

The whole grid capacity needs to upgrade for most neighborhoods.

Edited January 21 by Ecocharger

[notsonice + 656]

1 minute ago, Ecocharger said:

No, your numbers do not add up.

There is overload with universal overnight charging.

do you think in 10 years EVs will be the only vehicles on the road??..... as I said get back to me in 10 years and tell me if the existing grid is not sufficient for 2032.......Now if you want to talk about 2042.......my crystal ball is not good for 20 years

[QuarterCenturyVet + 309]

1 hour ago, notsonice said:

do you think in 10 years EVs will be the only vehicles on the road??..... as I said get back to me in 10 years and tell me if the existing grid is not sufficient for 2032.......Now if you want to talk about 2042.......my crystal ball is not good for 20 years

You don't have a crystal ball for tomorrow, let alone next year, 10 years, 20 years, or 50 years.

The way you climate doom gargling goons speak; hydrocarbons are the devil and should be outlawed immediately so your investments in renewables and EVs will make you rich. After languishing in the current system as middling employees or low level management, you need something to change so you don't end up needing your kids (if you have any) or government (lol) to take care of your elderly decline. 

It's not going to happen, by the way. Prolific and energy dense electric generation systems will be the only types that will rise to prominence. Nuclear, hydroelectric, and soon, geothermal will dominate the generation landscape with NG to bridge the gap. 

You can't seriously think that having to build at least 300% of needed generation capacity of wind and solar with corresponding battery backup will be economical.

For instance:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31032&src=email#tab2

EVs will exacerbate the renewable grid issues, not help solve it. 

https://labs.utdallas.edu/essl/projects/large-scale-vehicle-charging-problem/

[Boat + 1,263]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

Your correct in the physical sense but we know Wall Street runs on bs and emotion. Just Biden mentioning the SPR will send reporters flying to their computers to post the “huge” news. 
like the excitement of exports from the US. Hell they come from imports to the US. A big bother about nothing. 
The world of news is about viewership. Sensationalism drives clicks. 
Let me report. So the US drops around 2.8 mbpd when COVID struck. Today it’s roughly down 800 mbpd. Production has done a good job matching the growing demand in the US. I expect more slow and measured demand and a continued rise in production. Production will not ramp up to affect US exports from US production though. 
The stockpile of drilled but uncompleted wells continues to drop and has been dropping for some time. 100 wells a month get fracked above what are drilled. When drilling catches up with production demand it will be interesting to see if the industry replenishes the duct count. 

[Boat + 1,263]

1 hour ago, QuarterCenturyVet said:

You don't have a crystal ball for tomorrow, let alone next year, 10 years, 20 years, or 50 years.

The way you climate doom gargling goons speak; hydrocarbons are the devil and should be outlawed immediately so your investments in renewables and EVs will make you rich. After languishing in the current system as middling employees or low level management, you need something to change so you don't end up needing your kids (if you have any) or government (lol) to take care of your elderly decline. 

It's not going to happen, by the way. Prolific and energy dense electric generation systems will be the only types that will rise to prominence. Nuclear, hydroelectric, and soon, geothermal will dominate the generation landscape with NG to bridge the gap. 

You can't seriously think that having to build at least 300% of needed generation capacity of wind and solar with corresponding battery backup will be economical.

For instance:

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=31032&src=email#tab2

EVs will exacerbate the renewable grid issues, not help solve it. 

https://labs.utdallas.edu/essl/projects/large-scale-vehicle-charging-problem/

1/4 vet. You brought out the bs meter. Replacing FF would be great but only if the alternative is cost effective. There is no outlawing. Only a redneck would lie about such a thing. And why? 
Nuke might still be a huge chunk of the answer. Wind, solar and batteries seem to have the lead for AC demand, it’s a perfect fit. But one thing for sure. You ain’t smart enough to speak for the woke. For a fee I could filter your news for you. Your obviously having problems. PS, no money invested in renewables. 
As far as batteries for storage go, we don’t yet know how much the price will drop short term. But midterm (4-5) years, tech seems good enough prices should be halved. 100%. That should be the point that FF will disappear when powering air conditioning. 
I have posted several times since the Texas storm that Wind, solar and batteries are not a complete plan for a several day storm. Pass the word to other slower southern boys that talk that smack. You don’t get to form my narritave.

Your grid issues will certainly be exacerbated. Those EV’s and grid batteries will save billions in electrical costs and eliminate nat gas peaker plants. We’re gonna need a few million batteries before getting to excited about that. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 779]

On 1/21/2022 at 8:49 PM, ronwagn said:

Yes it will be malign influence if Russia insists on being a bad actor rather than a good neighbor. He is harming his own people in the process. 

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Edited January 23 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Ecocharger + 918]

20 hours ago, notsonice said:

do you think in 10 years EVs will be the only vehicles on the road??..... as I said get back to me in 10 years and tell me if the existing grid is not sufficient for 2032.......Now if you want to talk about 2042.......my crystal ball is not good for 20 years

The government plan is 100% EV, which means that local grids cannot support universal overnight charging without a massive rebuild.

[Ecocharger + 918]

17 hours ago, Boat said:

Your correct in the physical sense but we know Wall Street runs on bs and emotion. Just Biden mentioning the SPR will send reporters flying to their computers to post the “huge” news. 
like the excitement of exports from the US. Hell they come from imports to the US. A big bother about nothing. 
The world of news is about viewership. Sensationalism drives clicks. 
Let me report. So the US drops around 2.8 mbpd when COVID struck. Today it’s roughly down 800 mbpd. Production has done a good job matching the growing demand in the US. I expect more slow and measured demand and a continued rise in production. Production will not ramp up to affect US exports from US production though. 
The stockpile of drilled but uncompleted wells continues to drop and has been dropping for some time. 100 wells a month get fracked above what are drilled. When drilling catches up with production demand it will be interesting to see if the industry replenishes the duct count. 

When barrels are shuffled from one inventory into another inventory, nothing is changed in terms of net production, and no new product is on the market...no surprise that the oil market ignored the recent announcements and still went up in spades.

[Eric Gagen + 712]

28 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The government plan is 100% EV, which means that local grids cannot support universal overnight charging without a massive rebuild.

Sure but that rebuild is spread out over the next 30 years or so.  Even then only certain parts of some regions need that level of work.  Most recent construction in sunbelt states already has the distribution Infrastructure to support more or less universal EV charging, because it’s sized for peak air conditioning loads in summer, and nearly all the Southeast has already been updated to this standard for the same reason.  
 

The areas with the greatest need for real grid and distribution Infrastructure are in areas where the distribution system is already inadequate, like most of the northeast, and Pacific Northwest.  San Francisco and the greater Bay Area is a poster child for this problem.  It’s grid got built with the idea of being incredibly robust - - - for the purpose of making sure every home could use electric lights.  It’s already struggling to deal with day to day things  - most homes in the area already had to be upgraded once to run refrigerators.  Whatever upgrades and changes will need to be made to allow EV charging are approaching the point of being mandatory just to keep the current loads on the grid up and running.  

[Boat + 1,263]

16 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, the best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Just like the wackos think Trump won the election. One man’s propaganda is another man’s truth. Like your one country taking on a NATO 20 countries is not silly and foolish. What you need to do is stop it. First,think.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 779]

6 hours ago, Boat said:

Just like the wackos think Trump won the election. One man’s propaganda is another man’s truth. Like your one country taking on a NATO 20 countries is not silly and foolish. What you need to do is stop it. First,think.

Trump likely did win. Never seen so much ballot stuffing in my life, even in Ukraine. No relevance to the topic at hand though. Trump's administration was likely the most hostile to Russian interests to date.

There is such a thing as actual truth, not subject to moral relativisation. As in facts. I prefer to deal in those.

Whole 30 countries, even. Do you feel sufficient comfort in numbers now that North Macedonia is also on your side? IMHO, is being with a moral majority not much of an achievement. Russia has a history of being invaded by collective forces of the West once every hundred years or so. Every time, there is something wrong with our values. Not the right type of Christianity, Bolshevism bad. Anything will do to obfuscate the real needs - loot. Western civilization cannot survive without looting others. You live far beyond your actual means, always did.

We are going to win this time also, no matter what. It is simply much more comfortable to fight for a righteous cause you believe in, rather than simply joining the crowd which got the higher GDP. Because they are obviously the ones who are going to win, right?

Edited January 23 by Andrei Moutchkine

[surrept33 + 595]

22 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The "malign Russian influence" quip was supposed to be a joke, imitating  your Goebbels media. You haven't noticed?

The malign influence is all yours. Russia is the last, the best hope of the real free world. You are a creature of inverted world where good is evil and white is black, talking in tongues of Newspeak. It matters not if you are evil on purpose or merely mindlessly parroting some, but you need to stop doing this. First, think.

Lol, sounds like what a soviet propaganda minister would say.

It's interesting how Russian propaganda has increasingly reverted back to pre-1990 propaganda (including blaming things the soviets did on Goebbels) in places like Lithuania and Poland:

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/lithuanian-freedom-fighters-in-russian-propaganda-why-does-the-kremlin-care.d?id=79412987 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre#Those_adopting_pre-1990_views

Quote

In 2021, however, the Russian Ministry of Culture downgraded the memorial complex at Katyn on its Register of Sites of Cultural Heritage from a place of federal to one of only regional importance.^[137] Such decisions, says the preface to the site, are made in consultation with the regional authorities, i.e. the Smolensk Region administration. More important, the Ministry altered the descriptive text to say, once more, that the "Polish officers were shot by the Hitlerites in 1941".^[138]

 

Edited January 23 by surrept33

[TailingsPond + 98]

On 1/21/2022 at 2:31 PM, Eric Gagen said:

That's not by accident - it's on purpose. Most of the SPR storage is along the gulf coast near Houston, and the Louisiana Gulf Coast refining complex.  The refineries there are particularly well suited for using sour crude - specifically Mayan Mexican sour, Canadian tar sands, or Venezuelan heavy.  The real issue is what I originally stated - the SPR isn't big enough to manipulate oil markets in general.  It simply can't be done.

Some may be on purpose...

One of the last big sell-offs from the reserve angered several refineries because the oil was so bad. I can't find a link now but I believe the government paid a settlement for the damage to the refineries' catalysts.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/exxon-and-others-say-u-s-government-sold-toxic-crude-oil-1.1243545

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 779]

2 hours ago, surrept33 said:

Lol, sounds like what a soviet propaganda minister would say.

It's interesting how Russian propaganda has increasingly reverted back to pre-1990 propaganda (including blaming things the soviets did on Goebbels) in places like Lithuania and Poland:

https://www.delfi.lt/en/politics/lithuanian-freedom-fighters-in-russian-propaganda-why-does-the-kremlin-care.d?id=79412987 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katyn_massacre#Those_adopting_pre-1990_views

 

Finally! I always knew it wasn't it wasn't the Soviets at Katyn. This story has specifically been pushed by the actual Nazis while they were still around. If you really insist on discussing why that is so, you may start here.

https://forum.axishistory.com/viewtopic.php?t=41962

This discusses an odd fact - most of the dead were found shot by 0.32 ACP bullets branded GEKO (a German company) Why would NKVD use an exotic foreign firearm never seen in USSR before or since? It exactly corresponds to Walther PPKs the Nazis issued to Gestapo and units of Ukrainian auxiliary police, because the terms of Versailles treaty severely limited the numbers of 9mm firearms they could make.

Now, I would much prefer to not get into that. It is a long story you really know nothing about, beyond the usual Goebbels propaganda boilerplates. Wasn't whataboutism supposed to be a Russian/Soviet thing?

USSR never had a propaganda minister. It had some amount of direct censorship, usually performed by the local party cell. The only organization with any direct reach to the Western customers was Radio Moscow, which was as large as a single floor at the State Committee (lesser ministry) of Radio and Television, which was mostly dedicated to technological aspects of broadcast. Thus, I am pretty sure you ever encountered any real Soviet propaganda, only a strawman version of it presented by your own Ministry of Truth. The Soviets sucked at any kind of soft power. Modern Russia is orders of magnitude better. It's got RT, which is top notch. Small fry budget-wise compared to any of your news organizations. Get a lot of free labor out of American celebrities, like Larry King or Gov. Jesse Ventura. Why do they volunteer to work for a presumed enemy, you reckon?