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(edited)

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

Do you recall which page or thread this was on? 

Offhand, no, but I could probably find them.

Here is what is causing the renewed demand for coal, the huge price increases expected for natural gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Goldman-Ukraine-Conflict-Could-Double-EU-Natural-Gas-Prices.html

"The latest escalations could mean sanctions on Russia would undoubtedly result in massive consequences for Europe of declining gas flows that would send energy prices through the roof and crush consumers who can barely afford to pay their energy bills already."

Edited by Ecocharger
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(edited)

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

China orders coalmines to raise production to address power crunch

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/08/china-orders-coalmines-to-raise-production-to-address-power-crunch

Extract from the NY Times

China is expanding mines to produce 220 million metric tons a year of extra coal, a nearly 6 percent rise from last year. China already digs up and burns more coal than the rest of the world combined. The effort is infused with patriotism.28 Oct 2021

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chinas-provinces-still-planning-over-100-gw-new-coal-projects-greenpeace-2021-08-25/

What the Chinese government wants the mines to supply, and what will actually be supplied aren't always the same thing. It also shouldn't be seen as a coincidence that the size of the ordered increase is exactly the same as the amount currently being imported to China by overseas sources (not counting North Korean and Mongolian imports)  

 

 

Chinese coal supply.png

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN

The truth of the matter is, that domestic production of Coal in China hit a peak around 2012 or 2013, and it has only been through tremendous efforts that they have been able to hold on to what they have got so far.  For 2020 it was between 3,850 and 3,900 million tons https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/coal-production https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-2020-coal-output-rises-to-highest-since-2015-undermining-climate-pledges-2021-01-17( a slight improvement from 2019, but still below the peak years) and in 2021 with the most strenuous efforts it may have touched 4,070 million https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/business/china-coal-production-record-intl-hnk/index.html although usually data this new gets revised in the next year or two as record keeping is completed.  

I have detailed the rise (and coming fall) of Chinese coal production here, with a LOT of sources in it:

part 1

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal

part 2

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal-now-what

It's particularly noteworthy that the very modest rise in coal production in China has only been accomplished with a tripling (or more) of coal prices in China.  If it were possible for the mines in China to make massive increases in production they would have.  Even the 'official' price of steam coal in China right now is 700 yuan - the chart below is import price at Zhengzhou docks.  

2IXJLK7GQ5MQXFZOLH4PW6V3C4.png

Edited by Eric Gagen
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Peak Oil???? did it already happen???? if no one is producing ICE vehicles in 2030 the oil business will shrivel up and disappear sooner than expected....

 

GM to spend nearly $7B on EV, battery plants in Michigan

By DAVID EGGERT and TOM KRISHERan hour ago
 

LANSING, Mich. (AP) — General Motors is making the largest investment in company history in its home state of Michigan, announcing plans to spend nearly $7 billion to convert a factory to make electric pickup trucks and to build a new battery cell plant.

The moves, announced Tuesday in the state capital of Lansing, will create up to 4,000 jobs and keep another 1,000 already employed at an underutilized assembly plant north of Detroit.

The automaker plans to spend up to $4 billion converting and expanding its Orion Township assembly factory to make electric pickups and $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion building a third U.S. battery cell plant with a joint-venture partner in Lansing.

GM CEO Mary Barra said the investment would make Michigan “the epicenter of the electric vehicle industry.”

The state’s economic development board on Tuesday approved $824 million in incentives and assistance for Detroit-based GM. The package was unveiled and authorized by the Michigan Strategic Fund Board. It includes a $600 million grant to GM and Ultium Cells, the venture between the carmaker and LG Energy Solution, and a $158 million tax break for Ultium. The board also approved $66.1 million to help a local electric utility and township upgrade infrastructure at the battery factory site.

Both factories are scheduled to start producing in about two years, as GM rolls the dice on whether Americans will be willing to convert from internal combustion engines to battery power.

The Orion plant will join GM’s “Factory Zero” facility in Detroit in building new electric Chevrolet Silverados and GMC Sierra pickups. When both plants are making trucks on three shifts, GM will have the ability to build 600,000 electric pickup trucks per year, Barra said.

Already the company is getting great interest in the trucks from consumers, she said, without giving any numbers of reservations.

The announcement is a critical win for Michigan, which lost out on Ford Motor Co.’s $11 billion investment in three battery plants and a new vehicle assembly plant that went to Kentucky and Tennessee.

GM President Mark Reuss said it made sense for GM to locate the battery factory near its large manufacturing footprint in Michigan. The company’s ability to quickly convert existing factories such as Orion to build solely electric vehicles is a competitive advantage over companies that need to costly build brand-new plants, he said.

“We’re going to take advantage of that from an assembly plant standpoint, and then we’re going to put the new cell plants in the proximity to supply that footprint,” Reuss said.

GM says it will build four battery cell factories in North America. The Lansing announcement is its third, but Reuss said more may be needed as the transition to electric vehicles continues. The location of the fourth plant has not been announced.

“We’ve said four for now, but the adoption rate is rapid,” Reuss said. The other battery plants are being built in Lordstown, Ohio, and Spring Hill, Tennessee.

In Michigan, officials realized the critical nature of winning the GM investment after losing out on Ford’s announcement last year.

Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, said the GM announcement shows what can happen when elected officials from both sides of the aisle work together. “We showed everyone that we can compete with transformational projects,” she said.

The announcements, which include another $510 million investment to maintain production at two other Lansing-area GM plants, will generate more than $35 billion in personal income during the next 20 years, Whitmer said.

“The economic well-being of our state isn’t a partisan matter. High quality jobs don’t have party affiliations,” Republican Senate Majority Leader Mike Shirkey said.

Without the GM investment, Michigan risked losing a big chunk of its manufacturing base as the nation and world are expected to shift away from the vehicles it now makes that are largely powered by internal combustion engines. The consulting firm LMC Automotive expects U.S. EV sales to grow from just over 400,000 last year to 2.2 million in 2025. Even then, they still will be only about 13% of total U.S. new vehicle sales.

Reuss said that as the transition to electric vehicles starts, some buyers will substitute EVs for internal combustion trucks, but that number is difficult to estimate. GM, he said, doesn’t see the transition moving as fast in heavy duty work trucks. But the company is ready for whatever consumers want to buy, with factories building both versions. “That’s the way we’re approaching it, very agile, very much a foot in both camps as we do this transition,” he said.

Members of the United Auto Workers union are worried that jobs making gas engines, transmissions and other internal combustion vehicle parts eventually could be lost, since electric vehicles have fewer moving parts and are easier to assemble.

GM, which has set a goal of building only electric passenger vehicles by 2035, said that together with Ultium it considered multiple states for the new battery factory. The company has pledged to have 30 electric vehicle models for sale globally by 2025.

___

Krisher reported from Detroit.

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(edited)

California utility PG&E proposes 1.6GW/6.4GWh of new battery storage across nine projects

January 25, 2022

 

 
edwards-sanborn-cpa-terragen.pngRendering of the Edwards Sanborn project in Kern County, California. The site includes separately utilised standalone battery storage and solar-plus-storage facilities Image: Terra-Gen / CPA.

Plans to procure energy from nine large-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) projects in California have been announced by Pacific Gas & Electric (PG&E), one of the state’s three main investor-owned utilities.

The proposals come as a result of an 11.5GW clean energy procurement electricity suppliers — called load-serving entities — in California were ordered to make by the regulatory Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in mid-2021

Investor-owned utilities and Community Choice Aggregator groups must contract for resources which will come online between 2023 and 2026. PG&E’s share of that is at least 2,302MW. 

Due to the urgent need to replace retiring fossil fuel and nuclear capacity and meet growing demand for electrification while keeping the grid reliable, CPUC allowed for 10% of procurements to include fossil fuel resources, if they represent efficiency improvements, upgrades or repowering of existing sites. 

In announcing the procurement order, CPUC said that allowing the inclusion of even that small proportion of fossil fuel generation had been a very difficult decision to make, not least of all with California pursuing 100% clean electricity by 2045 under its SB100 policy enacted in 2018. Nonetheless, given the urgency of the procurement, CPUC had pushed ahead.

PG&E, which has the retirement of the 2.5GW Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant in its service area to contend with in the short-term, offered details yesterday of the nine projects it has proposed to help it meet its obligations under the procurement. All were selected through a competitive solicitation process.

Each one of them will utilise lithium-ion BESS technology, and 15-year agreements for Resource Adequacy — the mechanism by which California load-serving entities must guarantee they can deliver energy to ensure reliable supplies — have been entered into between PG&E and project developers. 

As such, the projects will all use four-hour duration battery systems. All will be standalone battery storage systems, connected to the transmission network.

The utility said two more solicitations will be held to add the remaining capacity it requires. 

The projects

Project name Developer/Owner Output/Capacity Location Online date
Beaumont Energy Storage Terra-Gen 100MW/400MWh Beaumont, Riverside County August 2023
Edwards Sanborn Energy Storage Terra-Gen 169MW/676MWh Mojave, Kern County August 2023
Canyon Country Energy Storage Terra-Gen 80MW/320MWh Santa Clarita, LA County October 2023
MOSS350 Vistra 350MW/1400MWh Moss Landing, Monterey County August 2023
Inland Empire Energy Storage Strata Clean Energy 100MW/400MWh Rialto, San Bernadino County April 2024
Corby Energy Storage NextEra Energy 100MW/400MWh Vacaville, Solano County June 2024
Kola Energy Storage NextEra Energy 275MW/1,100MWh Tracy, Alameda County June 2024
Nighthawk Storage  Arevon Energy (affiliate) 300MW/1,200MWh Poway, San Diego County June 2024 (pending local approval)
Caballero Energy Storage Origis 99.7MW/398.8MWh Nipomo, San Luis Obispo County June 2024

A couple of those project names may be familiar to regular Energy-Storage.news readers: Edwards Sanborn shares a name and location with one of the largest — if not the largest — lithium-ion solar-plus-storage projects in construction globally, with the standalone BESS contracted for separately. 

The MOSS350 project at Moss Landing represents an expansion project for Vistra Energy’s Moss Landing Energy Storage Facility, which at present is the world’s largest standalone lithium-ion BESS (400MW/1,600MWh)

The new projects bring up PG&E’s total contracted battery storage pipeline to more than 3,330MW, to be deployed by the end of 2024. Around 1,100MW of that will come online this year and next year, including Elkhorn Battery, PG&E’s own 182.5MW/750MWh project at the Moss Landing site. 

The new projects will play into the wholesale market operated by California grid operator CAISO, providing energy and ancillary services as required. Resource Adequacy contracts ensure that a project’s owner or asset operator can guarantee that their system will be available to play into these services, as directed by the utility’s contract. 

Edited by notsonice
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Solar Tsunami: 2022

In 2019 the interconnection queue in the US was 139GWac and we were really excited about that much solar, but today it’s 639GWac — a 3X increase. Now that’s a solar tsunami.

January 25, 2022Christian Roselund

Lilyhero_resized3-1200x580.jpg

Image: Enel

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If you want to get an idea of where the solar market in the United States is headed, a good place to start is the process every developer has to go through to plug their project into the grid. Every grid operator has an interconnection queue and you can learn a lot about where the market is going by looking at this public data.

On January 1, 2019, John Weaver and I published the first “Solar Tsunami” article in pv magazine USA. At the time we were really excited about the 139 GWac of solar that we found in the queues of six of the nation’s seven big grid operators. Even if only a small portion of it would get built, it was so much solar!

Growing 3x in 3 Years

But 139 GWac is chicken scratch by comparison to what we found at the beginning of this year. In our latest analysis, we found no less than 639 GWac of large-scale solar projects in the queues of the seven wholesale power markets, plus TVA, the Bonneville Power Administration, and two of the nation’s largest investor-owned utilities (Florida Power & Light and Southern Company). If we limit that to the queues we tracked in 2019, it still shows a more than 3x increase.

thumbnail_ISO-bar-chart-V6-600x496.png

It’s important to keep in mind that this is not even all the solar projects being planned. The 639 GWac number does not include projects in the queues of dozens of other utilities across the South and Mountain West, or the smaller projects, like rooftop solar, that connect to the distribution grid. And these can add up; in California, distributed solar accounts for around 1/3 of the total capacity online.

But to understand these numbers, you have to also keep in mind that putting a project in the queue does not necessarily mean that it will ever get built. Also, there are plenty of speculative projects. ISO-New England estimates that only 30% of the capacity in its interconnection queue gets built; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in a very detailed 2021 report, estimates that only 16% of the solar projects in grid operator queues have been completed.

Looking only at projects that have gotten approval to connect to the grid gets you closer to what might actually see built in the near term—and this still shows very big numbers. Across the queues tracked in this article, 82GWac of solar projects had been granted interconnection approval.

By comparison, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates that 15.5GWac of solar came online in the United States in 2021, and predicts 21.5GW in 2022.

The capacity of projects with interconnection approval is also higher than the amount the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) expects over the next three years. In FERC’s latest update, the Commission found 53GWac of solar projects with a “high probability” of getting built—far more than any other resource.

FERC doesn’t share its methodology of how it determines which projects are most likely to get built. Our team is currently developing our own methodologies so that we can offer more specific numbers in the future.

FERC-Generation-Capacity-Tables-2022-Jan

To Texas, and the Midwest

Digging into the massive volume waiting to be built also tells the story of how solar is moving beyond California to conquer the entire United States. While we don’t yet have final data, 2021 looks like the first year when Texas installed more solar than California. Even more is coming. The 25GWac of solar projects in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) grid that hold interconnection agreements exceeds the California Independent System Operator’s (CAISO) 21 GW.

And the story goes beyond Texas. The Midwest and Mid-Atlantic are the new hot spots for solar development; the Midcontinent System Operator (MISO) and PJM Interconnection together have more than 26GW of solar projects with interconnection agreements.

Looking at all the active projects in the queue shows an even bigger geographical shift. PJM, the nation’s largest wholesale market, has the largest capacity in its queue and nearly 2x the capacity in ERCOT. And after these two and CAISO, MISO is in third place with 87GW. 

It is important to not infer too much into the numbers of active projects, as speculative projects affect the overall size of queues, and there will be different amounts from queue to queue. Regardless, the sheer volume of projects—with nearly 2,000 active solar projects in PJM’s queue—suggests that these regions could be the next to take off in a big way.

Batteries, Batteries, and More Batteries
The second major trend documented by these queues is the explosion of the battery storage market, and in particular solar + storage. As happened with solar, California is in the lead. Not only does CAISO represent more than 1/3 of the 329GWac of battery projects (including those paired with solar*) that we found in various queues, but more importantly CAISO dominates projects with interconnection agreements. Of the 27GW of battery projects with interconnection agreements, 21 GW were in CAISO’s queue.

The only other region showing large-scale near-term battery deployment is Texas, with 4GWac of projects with interconnection agreements in ERCOT. For the other grid operators there may be many battery projects but few are ready to build; of the 78GW of battery projects in the PJM queue, only 203MW were approved for interconnection. 

The biggest factor to consider here is that it takes time to move through the interconnection process. Many of these battery projects are likely simply too new to show up in the list of projects with approvals. There is also the matter that grid operators are struggling with the large numbers of solar, wind, and battery projects that are being proposed. MISO has already had to make major changes to its queue process to deal with this volume, and other grid operators are also considering doing so.

Another trend that we’re seeing is solar being paired with batteries, but this varies widely by queue. In CAISO, more than 90% of the solar projects in the queue include battery storage, whereas in ISO-New England it is around one quarter and in PJM it is 16%.

Over time, as penetrations of solar increase and policies catch up, we expect to see solar increasingly paired with energy storage, as the peanut butter and chocolate combination of the energy transition. But if California is any indication, as the market evolves there will also be many standalone energy storage projects; in California’s queue there were 270.

That’s all for the January 2022 edition of Solar Tsunami. Stay tuned, as we will be publishing another look at the queues in April, featuring expanded research to bring in more data from more queues.

Jason O’Leary, of pv-intel.com, contributed to this article with data collection, sorting, and graphics creation.

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5 hours ago, notsonice said:

GM to spend nearly $7B on EV, battery plants in Michigan LANSING, Mich. (AP) — General Motors is making the largest investment in company history in its home state of Michigan, announcing plans to spend nearly $7 billion to convert a factory to make electric pickup trucks and to build a new battery cell plant.

If this is true, this will be the 2nd actual Lithium battery cell plant in the USA not named TESLA.  Everything else is nothing but assembly buildings making supposed "headlines" which you keep posting...  So good news for GM.  Ford is a joke, make the vehicles, but import the batteries completely...

Where oh where will the Lithium/Nickel/Cobalt actually be coming from is the real question. 

__________________________________________________________________________

Can Australia keep its gargantuan increase in hard rock Lithium mining going?  Is Australia going to start telling the world how high to jump?  They effectively mine more than the rest of the world combined and are looking to INCREASE this lead massively. 

New Caledonia is completely shut down(processing) and instead is selling raw Nickel ore to China to process and the Phillipines is partially shut down.  Both due to finally increasing environmental regulations with more in the regulatory works coming soon. 

Indonesia in 2022, last I heard was going to BAN the export of Nickel... Due to environmental horror of no regulations.  More than likely they will go the New Caledonia route or just ignore the regulations, not sure which way they will go. 

In case you guys can't figure that out, that is the #1 and #2 nickel exporters in the world and New Caledonia#4(France) does not process any, but rather dumps the processing onto China and gets a pitiful low price for its ore now.    Prices in Nickel MUST go up massively as the cheap, no environmental regulation nickel producing countries are stopping the flow of said ore. 

Leaves Canada, Australia, and Russia, though Brazil/Cuba I believe are coming online. 

Cobalt: Hrmm, can Canada open new gargantuan mines instead of everyone going to the DRC and begging, or supporting one warring faction over the other?  Hrmm...

I'll bet everyone gives up on NMC and just goes with Lithium Iron Phosphate as to make them work ~well enough all you have to do is add insulation around the batteries and a heater to operate in below freezing conditions.

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(edited)

On 1/22/2022 at 11:18 PM, TailingsPond said:

Outside some branches of math you can't prove a truth.  You can, however, disprove lies.

Trump will pay for his lies; even the supreme court judges he appointed voted against his attempt to hide the truth. 

What is he hiding?

You are extremely uninformed, extremely ignorant, or deliberately blind. 

https://biblehub.com/isaiah/5-20.htm

New International Version
Woe to those who call evil good and good evil, who put darkness for light and light for darkness, who put bitter for sweet and sweet for bitter.

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/biden-family-recieved-31-million-dollars-individuals-linked-chinese-intelligence-joe-vp/?

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/huge-breaking-news-wisconsin-assembly-votes-withdraw-10-electors-joe-biden-2020-election-video/

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2022/01/breaking-georgia-officials-tampered-deleted-hours-ballot-box-video-released-investigators/

 

Edited by ronwagn
reference
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11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Offhand, no, but I could probably find them.

Here is what is causing the renewed demand for coal, the huge price increases expected for natural gas.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Goldman-Ukraine-Conflict-Could-Double-EU-Natural-Gas-Prices.html

"The latest escalations could mean sanctions on Russia would undoubtedly result in massive consequences for Europe of declining gas flows that would send energy prices through the roof and crush consumers who can barely afford to pay their energy bills already."

One good way to learn that Russia is their enemy and they need to rely on their multiple sources of energy including fossil fuels until they can build out their renewable dreams. 

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11 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

What the Chinese government wants the mines to supply, and what will actually be supplied aren't always the same thing. It also shouldn't be seen as a coincidence that the size of the ordered increase is exactly the same as the amount currently being imported to China by overseas sources (not counting North Korean and Mongolian imports)  

 

 

Chinese coal supply.png

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN

The truth of the matter is, that domestic production of Coal in China hit a peak around 2012 or 2013, and it has only been through tremendous efforts that they have been able to hold on to what they have got so far.  For 2020 it was between 3,850 and 3,900 million tons https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/coal-production https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-2020-coal-output-rises-to-highest-since-2015-undermining-climate-pledges-2021-01-17( a slight improvement from 2019, but still below the peak years) and in 2021 with the most strenuous efforts it may have touched 4,070 million https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/business/china-coal-production-record-intl-hnk/index.html although usually data this new gets revised in the next year or two as record keeping is completed.  

I have detailed the rise (and coming fall) of Chinese coal production here, with a LOT of sources in it:

part 1

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal

part 2

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal-now-what

It's particularly noteworthy that the very modest rise in coal production in China has only been accomplished with a tripling (or more) of coal prices in China.  If it were possible for the mines in China to make massive increases in production they would have.  Even the 'official' price of steam coal in China right now is 700 yuan - the chart below is import price at Zhengzhou docks.  

2IXJLK7GQ5MQXFZOLH4PW6V3C4.png

Great information. They have been relying on the rest of the world to supply them fossil fuels of all kind while neglecting any real effort to build renewables. Plus their hydroelectric sources are old and crumbling. Not able to really handle their rainy seasons to prevent floods. 

The Chinese people are smart, and are seeing through the CCP and their Emperor for LIfe. 

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On 1/24/2022 at 6:59 AM, Eric Gagen said:

I almost included something about self driving cars in my response to @Ecocharger but I figured I would stick to solutions that work only with currently available technologies.  I also left out curbside charging, since the worst/most crowded urban areas often don’t even have enough of that sort of parking for it to be a reasonable solution.  

Modern coal plants are acceptable until renewables are built out. We do not want to go through Europe scale power shortages. We should, in fact, keep them operable in case of extreme weather or attacks on infrastructure. Redundancy is a must IMHO.

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Great information. They have been relying on the rest of the world to supply them fossil fuels of all kind while neglecting any real effort to build renewables. Plus their hydroelectric sources are old and crumbling. Not able to really handle their rainy seasons to prevent floods. 

The Chinese people are smart, and are seeing through the CCP and their Emperor for LIfe. 

Uh, Ron???  China has been building modern mega hydropower dams like they are going out of style and they still have a lot more to go.  When you own the Tibet Plateau... 5000m drop from all the rivers creeks is a HELL of a lot of power and its not like a good portion of southern and Central China is not also great for hydropower.  China roughly has as much Hydropower as the REST OF THE WORLD combined because of said Tibet Plateau and they are only roughly~50% finished building said dams.  This aspect alone will make them a superpower once all those dams are completed as long as they can keep hold of said plateau of course as it is projected that they will generate roughly 600-->700GW with a capacity factor of roughly 50%.  To put that in perspective, that would be 50% of the Eastern USA Grid annual power needs for .... FREE every year.  One reason EU is also doing so well with intermittent wind/solar, they have 2.5X as much hydropower as the USA in annual produced hydropower.  EU has 2nd most hydropower in the world, but no more left to build out.  True, lots of hydro potential around the world left to go in the developing world, but most of that potential hydro outside of Brazil/Peru/Congo potential is very flood/drought prone so while a big name plate capacity, in reality will be a pittance of said capacity in reality.  India is a great example of this.  Cyclone season. 

The Chinese dams which are crumbling are all the small ancient dams around central China; in that aspect you are 100% correct.

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(edited)

46 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Uh, Ron???  China has been building modern mega hydropower dams like they are going out of style and they still have a lot more to go.  When you own the Tibet Plateau... 5000m drop from all the rivers creeks is a HELL of a lot of power and its not like a good portion of southern and Central China is not also great for hydropower.  China roughly has as much Hydropower as the REST OF THE WORLD combined because of said Tibet Plateau and they are only roughly~50% finished building said dams.  This aspect alone will make them a superpower once all those dams are completed as long as they can keep hold of said plateau of course as it is projected that they will generate roughly 600-->700GW with a capacity factor of roughly 50%.  To put that in perspective, that would be 50% of the Eastern USA Grid annual power needs for .... FREE every year.  One reason EU is also doing so well with intermittent wind/solar, they have 2.5X as much hydropower as the USA in annual produced hydropower.  EU has 2nd most hydropower in the world, but no more left to build out.  True, lots of hydro potential around the world left to go in the developing world, but most of that potential hydro outside of Brazil/Peru/Congo potential is very flood/drought prone so while a big name plate capacity, in reality will be a pittance of said capacity in reality.  India is a great example of this.  Cyclone season. 

The Chinese dams which are crumbling are all the small ancient dams around central China; in that aspect you are 100% correct.

What would concern me is the quality of the build of some of these damns as China's record on concrete isnt great.

Also the Tibetan Plateau is next to the Xianshuihe fault system which again is concerning.

The Xianshuihe fault system is a major active sinistral (left-lateral) strike-slip fault zone in southwestern China, at the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau. It has been responsible for many major earthquakes, and is one of the most seismically active fault zones in this part of China.

 

The 2010 Yushu earthquake struck on April 14 and registered a magnitude of 6.9 Mw[3][6] (USGS, EMSC) or 7.1 Ms[2][7] (CEA, CENC). It had a maximum felt intensity of IX (Violent) on the Mercalli intensity scale.[3] It originated in Yushu, Qinghai, China, at 7:49 am local time (23:49 April 13 UTC).[1][8] According to the Xinhua News Agency, 2,698 people were confirmed dead, 270 missing and 12,135 injured, 1,434 of them severely.[5] The epicenter was located in Rima village (日玛村/日麻村), Upper Laxiu township (上拉秀乡) of Yushu County,[9][10] in remote and rugged terrain, near the border of Tibet Autonomous Region, about 30 km from Gyêgu town or Jyekundo, the seat of Yushu County,[11] and about 240 km from Qamdo.[3] The epicenter was in a sparsely populated area on the Tibetan plateau that is regularly hit by earthquakes.[12]

Maybe not a great idea to build a damn here.

Edited by Rob Plant

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(edited)

5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Great information. They have been relying on the rest of the world to supply them fossil fuels of all kind while neglecting any real effort to build renewables. Plus their hydroelectric sources are old and crumbling. Not able to really handle their rainy seasons to prevent floods. 

The Chinese people are smart, and are seeing through the CCP and their Emperor for LIfe. 

China is THE world leader in placing renewables and hydro into production.  The 'problem' is that they are all getting rich enough to afford air conditioning, refrigerators and televisions, so power demand is going through the roof.  All the capacity additions from all the sources simply has been barely enough to keep up with increased demand.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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5 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Modern coal plants are acceptable until renewables are built out. We do not want to go through Europe scale power shortages. We should, in fact, keep them operable in case of extreme weather or attacks on infrastructure. Redundancy is a must IMHO.

If any place in the world purposely has any excess power plants lying around 'just in case' it would literally be the first time in history that has ever happened.  No grid ever created or operated has had more than the minimum amount of excess generating capacity required to prevent current and voltage instabilities.  It's too expensive and wasteful to operate otherwise.  

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20 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

What the Chinese government wants the mines to supply, and what will actually be supplied aren't always the same thing. It also shouldn't be seen as a coincidence that the size of the ordered increase is exactly the same as the amount currently being imported to China by overseas sources (not counting North Korean and Mongolian imports)  

 

 

Chinese coal supply.png

https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/country/CHN

The truth of the matter is, that domestic production of Coal in China hit a peak around 2012 or 2013, and it has only been through tremendous efforts that they have been able to hold on to what they have got so far.  For 2020 it was between 3,850 and 3,900 million tons https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/china/coal-production https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chinas-2020-coal-output-rises-to-highest-since-2015-undermining-climate-pledges-2021-01-17( a slight improvement from 2019, but still below the peak years) and in 2021 with the most strenuous efforts it may have touched 4,070 million https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/19/business/china-coal-production-record-intl-hnk/index.html although usually data this new gets revised in the next year or two as record keeping is completed.  

I have detailed the rise (and coming fall) of Chinese coal production here, with a LOT of sources in it:

part 1

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal

part 2

https://epgsolutionsco.com/articles-and-news-blog/f/china-is-running-out-of-coal-now-what

It's particularly noteworthy that the very modest rise in coal production in China has only been accomplished with a tripling (or more) of coal prices in China.  If it were possible for the mines in China to make massive increases in production they would have.  Even the 'official' price of steam coal in China right now is 700 yuan - the chart below is import price at Zhengzhou docks.  

2IXJLK7GQ5MQXFZOLH4PW6V3C4.png

There are new plans to increase coal production in China. 

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The age of cheap renewable energy is over, price increases in renewable inputs have already ratcheted up, and it will only get worse going forward.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-Era-of-Cheap-Renewables-Grinds-To-A-Halt.html

"Raw material shortages, notably in metals and minerals and polysilicon are impacting the renewable energy industry

The cost of solar panels, wind turbines, and EV batteries is climbing after years of declines

Solar panel prices had surged by more than 50 percent in the past 12 months alone. The price of wind turbines is up 13 percent and battery prices are rising for the first time ever"

Edited by Ecocharger

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48 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

There are new plans to increase coal production in China. 

Yes - they are making, have made, and continue to make plans to bring new mines on, improve old ones, etc.  Did you read the articles I posted or check the statistics?  All of that effort is to keep the rate of coal production stable as old mines are worked out.  it's not resulting in any considerable increase in production.  It's not as though they weren't trying in 2014,or 15,or 16,or 17 or 18, or 19 - it's just that production continued to decline in spite of all those efforts.  

Edited by Eric Gagen

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1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

Yes - they are making, have made, and continue to make plans to bring new mines on, improve old ones, etc.  Did you read the articles I posted or check the statistics?  All of that effort is to keep the rate of coal production stable as old mines are worked out.  it's not resulting in any considerable increase in production.  It's not as though they weren't trying in 2014,or 15,or 16,or 17 or 18, or 19 - it's just that production continued to decline in spite of all those efforts.  

They were planning to phase out the old "dirtier" technology mines and introduce new cleaner technology mines. But now the replacement rate will increase and eventually produce more coal in more productive mines. Output to increase.

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Biden & Co. are getting desperate in attempts to increase oil on the market, this new release simply shuffles barrels from one pocket into another pocket with NO new production of additional barrels...net result, zero. Could anything be more pathetic?

It is time for Biden & Co. to try listening to more expert voices of reason.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Releases-Another-134-Million-Barrels-From-SPR.html

"As with all exchanges, companies that receive SPR crude oil through the exchange agree to return the amount of crude oil received, as well as an additional amount, dependent upon the length of time in which they hold the oil,” the DoE said in late December.

Despite the SRP release effort, gas prices are not where the White House would want them to be. Over the past 12 months, prices at the pump have gained some 50 percent, per a recent CNBC report, and with inflation running hot, the chances of them declining in any substantial way anytime soon are quite slim.

Before the Biden administration resorted to the SPR release, the president tried calling on OPEC and its partners to boost production beyond what OPEC+ had already agreed to add to its combined total. The cartel refused, leaving the White House with few options besides a reserve release. Analysts warned at the time that the move would not have the desired effect for a variety of reasons."

Edited by Ecocharger

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4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

They were planning to phase out the old "dirtier" technology mines and introduce new cleaner technology mines. But now the replacement rate will increase and eventually produce more coal in more productive mines. Output to increase.

You need data to back that up, because so far it's just your word, and it doesn't match up with the past news items and performance of mines in China.  I mean it might be there - the Chinese government actually publishes an impressive amount of statistical data, forecasts, and plans - in english even! I just haven't seen it yet.  

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6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

China is THE world leader in placing renewables and hydro into production.  The 'problem' is that they are all getting rich enough to afford air conditioning, refrigerators and televisions, so power demand is going through the roof.  All the capacity additions from all the sources simply has been barely enough to keep up with increased demand.  

I was not talking about production. I am talking about what THEY use. 

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4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

I was not talking about production. I am talking about what THEY use. 

I was too - solar, hydro and wind constructed and deployed in China for domestic consumption in China.  They use all of it - it's just not enough because demand is growing so fast.  As a percentage of electricity generated in China it's not that big,  but compared to the amount of renewables deployed anywhere else it's staggering, and growing fast.  They just can't build it fast enough to keep up with demand.  This is the first time (and probably the last) we have seen a country of 1.4 billion transition from famine and starvation to 1st world status in the space of 40 years, and it's mind numbing how fast it's going.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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25 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

I was too - solar, hydro and wind for domestic consumption in China.  They use all of it - it's just not enough because demand is growing so fast.  As a percentage of electricity generated in China it's not that big,  but compared to the amount of renewables deployed anywhere else it's staggering, and growing fast.  They just can't build it fast enough to keep up with demand.  This is the first time (and probably the last) we have seen a country of 1.4 billion transition from famine and starvation to 1st world status in the space of 40 years, and it's mind numbing how fast it's going.  

Eric, you are not looking at the big picture in China. They show their best and hide their worst. Our media never covers their poverty either. 

https://www.pnas.org/content/111/19/6928

In conclusion, our results reveal that China’s income inequality has grown rapidly in the last three decades, to a very high level around 2010. The rapid rise in income inequality can be partly attributed to long-standing government development policies that effectively favor urban residents over rural residents and favor coastal, more developed regions over inland, less developed regions (13, 25, 32). Given the structural importance in generating China’s high income inequality, it seems plausible that income inequality can be reduced by changes in government policies, for example, reducing the rural-urban and regional disparities. We begin to observe early signs of change in this direction between 2010 and 2012 (2).

https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/china

The contribution of wind and solar is tiny. 

Edited by ronwagn
reference

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1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

You need data to back that up, because so far it's just your word, and it doesn't match up with the past news items and performance of mines in China.  I mean it might be there - the Chinese government actually publishes an impressive amount of statistical data, forecasts, and plans - in english even! I just haven't seen it yet.  

Output of coal is already increasing at a substantial rate. You have to keep watching, if you turn your head the Chinese rate of coal output increases again, and you cannot simply assume that this trend will change and go down. There are new mines planned to open.

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-oct-coal-output-rises-highest-since-march-2015-2021-11-15/

"The world's biggest producer and consumer of the dirty fossil fuel churned out 357.09 million tonnes of coal last month, up from 334.1 million tonnes in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday.

Output over the first 10 months of 2021 was 3.3 billion tonnes, up 4% year-on-year.

Since July, China has approved expansions at more than 153 coal mines, which could add 55 million tonnes of coal output in the fourth quarter, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) said last month.

The central government, striving to put an end to power shortages, has also forbidden local governments to shut coal mines without authorisation and urged a restart at closed mines as soon as they have rectified any problems. 

The increase comes as India, backed by China and other coal-dependent developing nations, brokered a last minute amendment at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow at the weekend to change the final wording of the agreement to "phase down" rather than "phase out" the use of coal. "

In other words, no "phase-out", that idea is DONE, and GONE.

Edited by Ecocharger
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