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GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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On 5/21/2022 at 12:16 AM, notsonice said:

private transportation will be unaffordable for the vast majority of people..........

ha ha ha

$4 gas in unaffordable for the vast majority of people and the still are not dependent on government funded public transportation

 

Keep babbling BS , you are the King of it.........

$4 gas is not the end, it will go up higher, and people will still be able to afford it.

European gasoline taxes have pushed up their price even higher than this, $4 is relatively cheap.

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12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It is basic economics.

No, it is common sense to point out the foolishness of assuming zero-sum games in energy markets and vehicle markets. 

Economics doesn't work that way.

I guess you didn't get your economics degree, Jay?

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(edited)

What is this? Another snow storm in Colorado, and another cold spell in the U.S. in late May?

I guess that those solar cycle models are in control.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/US-Natural-Gas-Prices-Fall-As-Colder-Weather-Approaches.html

"Natural gas futures fell to $8.076/MMBtu (-2.79%) as the Global Forecast System predicted that cold weather was in store next week for the Great Plains and the Eastern United States, and the week following in the Mountain West and East Coast."

Edited by Ecocharger
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(edited)

Major snowstorms have pelted Colorado this week, 20" of snow accumulation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2022/05/21/snow-colorado-outages/

A late winter storm dumped as much as 20 inches of snow in the Centennial State.

More than 100,000 customers are in the dark because of the heft of the wet snow, which weighed down trees — already green with leaves — and power lines. The greatest concentration of outages focused on the south and west sides of Denver in Jefferson and Denver counties, where nearly 80,000 customers were without electricity, according to PowerOutage.US."

Edited by Ecocharger
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7 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

$4 gas is not the end, it will go up higher, and people will still be able to afford it.

European gasoline taxes have pushed up their price even higher than this, $4 is relatively cheap.

Europeans can handle the higher gas prices, at least in part, because other things (such as, I don't know, healthcare) is so much cheaper than it is here. I don't think this type of analysis in a vacuum works.

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2 hours ago, Polyphia said:

Europeans can handle the higher gas prices, at least in part, because other things (such as, I don't know, healthcare) is so much cheaper than it is here. I don't think this type of analysis in a vacuum works.

You do understand million and millions of Europeans cannot afford to pay their heating bills. The UK citizens are revolting on a massive scale. And you speak to bandaids and health care? 

 

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34 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

You do understand million and millions of Europeans cannot afford to pay their heating bills. The UK citizens are revolting on a massive scale. And you speak to bandaids and health care? 

 

And it is natural gas that is responsible for unaffordable heating bills.

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(edited)

12 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Hope you say? No no little one, the  greatest story yet to be told is unwinding before our eye's.

Who and when will break these events Wide Open...now that will be priceless 

 

You're still stuck on Hillary?  Talk about holding out hope, that wasn't even the last election. 

I agree that people that try to "break these events wide open" are priceless entertainment.  How is pillow man doing? Back on the crack?

Eat crow.

Edited by TailingsPond

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11 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, it is common sense to point out the foolishness of assuming zero-sum games in energy markets and vehicle markets. 

Economics doesn't work that way.

I guess you didn't get your economics degree, Jay?

We know how much oil was consumed over the years and how many EVs were purchased and thus it is a rather straight forward calculation. This makes your conceptual zero-sum market argument irrelevant.

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And it is natural gas that is responsible for unaffordable heating bills.

Please enlighten us more on this reasoning you libtard commie. You are one clueless s.o.b. 

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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

We know how much oil was consumed over the years and how many EVs were purchased and thus it is a rather straight forward calculation. This makes your conceptual zero-sum market argument irrelevant.

Auto's, light and heavy trucking all have gaining mpg's so it's not as straight forward over the last 20 years commie. Still driving yer petrol car no less....... you are pathetic for a human.

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37 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Auto's, light and heavy trucking all have gaining mpg's so it's not as straight forward over the last 20 years commie. Still driving yer petrol car no less....... you are pathetic for a human.

Almost like they know burning gas is bad.

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(edited)

44 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Please enlighten us more on this reasoning you libtard commie. You are one clueless s.o.b. 

I know you don't have the brain power to handle this concept but natural gas is the main source for heating houses and the price of natural gas in Europe has tripled since 2019. . 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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I hope that the prosecutors hammer this home and that, if they lose, the decision is appealed somehow.

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On 5/20/2022 at 11:14 PM, notsonice said:

Elon is crashing.....Competition is cutting the costs of EVs ........Tesla will be gone in 5 years .....Bankruptcy 

I hope not. I would like him to succeed. The whole industry is facing supply and price constraints. The best plan for car buyers is to stick with the gigantic stock of used and low priced new ICE vehicles. That is, until EVs are affordable and make sense over the long term purchase. The overall cost of new vehicle use must include price, comparability, insurance, insurance, maintenance, resale value, repairability, lifespan, all taxes, etc. The consumers with higher incomes are the ones buying the expensive EVs right now. Not many though. 

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40 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Auto's, light and heavy trucking all have gaining mpg's so it's not as straight forward over the last 20 years commie. Still driving yer petrol car no less....... you are pathetic for a human.

We know the number of EVs and it is straight forward to determine how much petrol they replace.

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1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

We know the number of EVs and it is straight forward to determine how much petrol they replace.

Then tell us how much has been replaced. And why is it petrol barrels still gaining in numbers?

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3 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Then tell us how much has been replaced. And why is it petrol barrels still gaining in numbers?

My posting that information a few days ago is what started this discussion. Having reading problems?

EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

Electric vehicles displaced roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil last year, new analysis shows, an amount slated to grow as EV sales keep rising.

Why it matters: The new estimates from the research firm BloombergNEF help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

  • Total transportation fuel demand was 43.7 million barrels per day last year, the firm said.
  • The amount EVs have displaced doubled over the last six years, BloombergNEF said.

The intrigue: What kinds of EVs are doing the heaviest lifting right now is surprising (to me anyway!).

  • "Two- and three-wheeled EVs accounted for 67% of the oil demand avoided in 2021," the report notes, citing rapid adoption in Asia.
  • Buses were next at 16% and then followed by passenger vehicles at 13%, though BloombergNEF adds that they're the fastest-growing segment.

The big picture: BloombergNEF said last year's displaced oil demand amounts to roughly one-fifth of Russia's pre-invasion exports.

 

Oil consumption is still less than the all time high in 2019. Increases are just rebounds from the pandemic.

Fig6.png

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/ev-electric-vehicle-unicorn-crash-out-china-startup-gas-new-clean-energy-prices-auto-car-makers-carbon-emissions-biden-climate-change-tesla-11652970007?mod=hp_opin_pos_5#cxrecs_s

 

The Electric-Vehicle Unicorn Crash

Cheap credit and political subsidies led startups to let their ambitions get ahead of market realities.

 
 
By 
Allysia FinleyFollow
 
May 19, 2022 12:50 pm ET
 
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Evergrande Group's Hengchi electric vehicles are displayed at an auto show in Shanghai, China, April 19, 2021.

PHOTO: ALY SONG/REUTERS
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A parade of electric-vehicle startups have gone public in recent years and commanded multibillion-dollar valuations—Rivian, Nikola, Canoo, Lordstown, Fisker, Workhorse Group, Mullen Automotive and Lucid. Most had never sold a single car at their public debut. Fueled by cheap credit and political subsidies, their stocks surged, only to crash. Their ambitions were ahead of reality.

The same is true of Democrats who want to replace gasoline-powered cars with supposedly climate-friendly electric vehicles. Consider the problems now befalling China, the world leader in electric-vehicle production and exports. Beijing has set aggressive production quotas for car makers and provided generous subsidies for buyers. China’s annual electric-vehicle production capacity has ballooned to 5.7 million vehicles—for comparison, 434,879 electric vehicles were sold in the U.S. last year—and is expected to hit 15 million in a couple of years.

Yet concerns are mounting in China about oversupply of what the country calls new energy vehicles. “Reckless investments and disorderly efforts can be seen in the country’s NEV industry,” Lin Nianxiu, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, warned in March. “We have too many EV firms,” Xiao Yaqing, minister of industry and information technology, said in September.

Some 200 Chinese EV startups have launched in the chase for government subsidies. Many have struggled to scale up production, and some have gone bankrupt. Foreign auto makers, possibly excepting Tesla, are struggling to sell electric vehicles in a saturated Chinese market. China’s problem is twofold: too much investment chasing too little demand, and too many companies with too little profit. The U.S. is starting to see the same problems.


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Almost all EV startups went public by merging with SPACs, or special-purpose acquisition companies. That allowed them to avoid required financial disclosures and make exceedingly rosy business projections. The Federal Reserve encouraged risky investing by holding down short- and long-term interest rates. Easy money provided an enormous subsidy. But now the cost of capital is rising as the Fed tightens, and so are production costs as prices for lithium, nickel and cobalt surge. Rivian recently increased the price of its pickup truck by $12,000, to $79,500, to offset rising costs.

These so-called unicorns are rapidly burning through cash. Canoo, which is producing 12 vehicles a week, last week warned that “substantial doubt exists about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern” in the next year. Lordstown Motors, which recently sold a former General Motors plant it had bought in Ohio, issued a similar warning this week. The company says its ability to remain in business will depend on raising more capital and its stock price.

Difficulties raising capital and logistic snarls are causing unicorns to delay vehicle launches and slash production projections. As a result, their stock prices have plunged. Shares in Rivian, Canoo, Nikola, Mullen Automotive, Lordstown and Workhorse Group are trading 80% to 95% below their peaks.

Early investors are getting creamed. But their travails are good news for traditional auto makers, which are investing heavily in EV production to comply with government mandates. GM plans to produce only electric cars by 2035. Ford has bet big on its electric F-150 Lightning pickup, which is getting rave media reviews and boasts some 200,000 potential buyers on its wait list.

With a roughly $40,000 base price tag, the electric F-150 is only $10,000 more expensive than its gasoline-powered model. But it’s unclear whether Ford can make a profit selling the pickups at this price. Traditional makers are aiming to reduce costs of EVs—and thereby drum up demand—by scaling up production. Yet this may mean they lose money on each EV they sell for some time until there’s a battery technology breakthrough.

Auto makers also still face a significant risk that consumer demand won’t keep pace with supply. This is Detroit’s Big Three have been lobbying hard for President Biden’s Build Back Better plan. The bill would provide $12,500 tax credits for electric cars made at union auto plants in the U.S. and extend the current $7,500 credit through 2031 for nonunion plants.

Electric vehicles have some advantages. They are cheaper to maintain. Charging a car with electricity in most places costs less than fueling with gasoline. But electric cars are still on average 35% more expensive than gas-powered ones, and the price disparity is likely to increase as demand for critical minerals grows.

Most EVs today can’t go more than 250 miles on a charge (and less in cold weather). Drivers worry for good reason that they’ll run out of juice on the road. President Biden hopes to alleviate this so-called range anxiety by subsidizing a nationwide network of charging stations. This won’t solve the problem. Public charging stations are nowhere more ubiquitous than in California’s Bay Area. But a recent study found that less than three-quarters of charging stations worked. In many cases the plugs, screens or payment systems were broken, or connector cables weren’t long enough to reach the car’s port. Imagine if 25% of the nation’s gasoline stations weren’t working and drivers didn’t know until they got out of the car whether they’d be able to fill up.

Much still needs to be worked out before widespread adoption of EVs is feasible. Yet the Biden administration and states like California plan to use fuel-economy and emissions mandates to force auto makers to phase out conventional vehicles. What happens if electric cars don’t sell? Perhaps auto makers would lobby politicians for higher gasoline taxes to boost EV sales, as they are doing in Europe. More likely they’d discount electric cars and raise prices on gasoline-powered ones to compensate. The alternative would be bankruptcy.

Mr. Biden says he wants to beat China in the electric-vehicle race. Americans would be better off if government didn’t try to drive the market.

Ms. Finley is a member of the Journal’s editorial board.

 
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1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

My posting that information a few days ago is what started this discussion. Having reading problems?

EVs are shoving aside real volumes of oil

Electric vehicles displaced roughly 1.5 million barrels per day of oil last year, new analysis shows, an amount slated to grow as EV sales keep rising.

Why it matters: The new estimates from the research firm BloombergNEF help to show EVs are shedding their status as a niche climate technology.

  • Total transportation fuel demand was 43.7 million barrels per day last year, the firm said.
  • The amount EVs have displaced doubled over the last six years, BloombergNEF said.

The intrigue: What kinds of EVs are doing the heaviest lifting right now is surprising (to me anyway!).

  • "Two- and three-wheeled EVs accounted for 67% of the oil demand avoided in 2021," the report notes, citing rapid adoption in Asia.
  • Buses were next at 16% and then followed by passenger vehicles at 13%, though BloombergNEF adds that they're the fastest-growing segment.

The big picture: BloombergNEF said last year's displaced oil demand amounts to roughly one-fifth of Russia's pre-invasion exports.

 

Oil consumption is still less than the all time high in 2019. Increases are just rebounds from the pandemic.

Fig6.png

  • We estimate that 97.4 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in April 2022, an increase of 2.1 million b/d from April 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.6 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.2 million b/d increase from 2021. We revised down our forecast for 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels by 0.2 million b/d from the April STEO, primarily as a result of downward revisions to consumption growth in China and the United States. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d.
  • U.S. crude oil production in the forecast averages 11.9 million b/d in 2022, up 0.7 million b/d from 2021. We forecast that production will increase to more than 12.8 million b/d in 2023, surpassing the previous annual average record of 12.3 million b/d set in 2019.
  • Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) May 10th release..
  • Jay, ya can read yes??
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4 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And it is natural gas that is responsible for unaffordable heating bills.

Yes that is true, NG picked up the slack of Green Energy. Now that is a bit harsh that I do understand to. So interjecting Germany alone shut down 84 coal plants and 14 nuclear plants in hope of Green Dreams does come into play.

Odd the Germans being such lousy gamblers.

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5 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:
  • We estimate that 97.4 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels was consumed globally in April 2022, an increase of 2.1 million b/d from April 2021. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 99.6 million b/d for all of 2022, which is a 2.2 million b/d increase from 2021. We revised down our forecast for 2022 global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels by 0.2 million b/d from the April STEO, primarily as a result of downward revisions to consumption growth in China and the United States. We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will increase by 1.9 million b/d in 2023 to average 101.5 million b/d.
  • U.S. crude oil production in the forecast averages 11.9 million b/d in 2022, up 0.7 million b/d from 2021. We forecast that production will increase to more than 12.8 million b/d in 2023, surpassing the previous annual average record of 12.3 million b/d set in 2019.
  • Short-Term Energy Outlook - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) May 10th release..
  • Jay, ya can read yes??

Yes, As I said and anyone with eyes can see, the increase is a rebound from the pandemic and is still less than the pre pandemic high of 2019. 

The prediction of a new record in 2023 is just that a prediction that hasn't happened yet and more importantly it is for the US, not global. EVs are further ahead in the rest of the world, the US is a few years behind.

When global consumption surpasses the global record high of 2019 then you can talk about real increases. Ya can think yes??

 

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8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ya can think yes??

Sure can, and I think your Commie ass needs exported to Cuba or Russia. You post all these stats on EV's and don't even own one.  I at least have a Rav4 hybrid, (wifes car). You can copy/paste all you want, but it makes you none the less more intelligent than you want everyone to believe. 

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20 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Yes that is true, NG picked up the slack of Green Energy. Now that is a bit harsh that I do understand to. So interjecting Germany alone shut down 84 coal plants and 14 nuclear plants in hope of Green Dreams does come into play.

Odd the Germans being such lousy gamblers.

Those 84 coal plants have not been shut down yet. Try again. Their mistake was relying on natural gas that they had to get from Russia instead of building out more green energy and keeping the nukes open. I know you aren't interested in reality but last year even natural gas only accounted for 10% of their electricity production, same as solar. Wind plus solar made up 33% of their electricity,  

image.png.eba3565f84f56c1fff918b8e6ea463c7.png

However, they are now moving forward with the rapid development of renewables.

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(edited)

3 minutes ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Sure can, and I think your Commie ass needs exported to Cuba or Russia. You post all these stats on EV's and don't even own one.  I at least have a Rav4 hybrid, (wifes car). You can copy/paste all you want, but it makes you none the less more intelligent than you want everyone to believe. 

I accept your capitulation and the compliment. "but it makes you none the less more intelligent than you want everyone to believe" 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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