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GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You keep confusing the future and the past. We have the actual numbers for the past. The past is a zero sum market.

 And if demand shifts between products according to price changes that is the absolute definition of product substitution. This is basic economics.

The shift in demand can happen even if demand for both products increases, Jay. That is where you and your mistaken links are missing the point. You are trying to suggest that this is a zero-sum game where the producers compete over a larger piece of the pie, whereas in reality the pie itself may grow or decline, and both producers experience an increase or decrease in demand for their product. 

That is the same mistake that trade commentators make about the impact of tariffs on trade, looking only at a static production model and forgetting the impact of trade policy on the growth or decline of overall production.

A common error which is basic to the type of empty propaganda which you seem to be attracted to.

Edited by Ecocharger

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3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

California Q1 sales of Tesla Model Y 22K, Model 3 21K, Mitsubishi Mirage 418. https://www.cncda.org/wp-content/uploads/Cal-Covering-1Q-22-002.pdf

Again, you need to look at the overall market for vehicles to gain any sense of  relative achievement for the EV sector. That EV sector remains at less than 1%, and will continue to be there as long as overall vehicle markets continue to grow and increase the amount of ICE vehicles sold. 

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6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The shift in demand can happen even if demand for both products increases, Jay. That is where you and your mistaken links are missing the point. You are trying to suggest that this is a zero-sum game where the producers compete over a larger piece of the pie, whereas in reality the pie itself may grow or decline, and both producers experience an increase or decrease in demand for their product. 

That is the same mistake that trade commentators make about the impact of tariffs on trade, looking only at a static production model and forgetting the impact of trade policy on the growth or decline of overall production.

A common error which is basic to the type of empty propaganda which you seem to be attracted to.

You keep forgetting that we have the actual numbers. The ICE market is not growing but EVs are.

In the US: New-vehicle sales last quarter came in at 3.3 million, according to the latest Kelley Blue Book counts, a drop from 3.9 million in the first quarter of 2021. Sales in the quarter were down 15.7% year over year

EV sales grew 76% year over year in Q1, in line with our January prediction for EV growth to outpace industry growth in 2022. EV share jumped from 2.5% of sales in Q1 2021 to 5.2% in Q1 2022.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig

And globally:

Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) — including fully electric and hybrid vehicles — doubled on the year in 2021 to a record 6.6mn and have remained strong this year thanks to sustained policy support, the IEA said today, 23 May.

Of global car sales in 2021, nearly 10pc were EVs, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2334319-ev-sales-doubled-in-2021-but-growth-must-continue-iea

The only growth in the car market was due to EVs.

image.thumb.png.864b5ce604808b54190cc4f7d7751173.png

 

And please remember cars don't last forever. Old cars are retired at about 5% per year.

 

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2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

You keep forgetting that we have the actual numbers. The ICE market is not growing but EVs are.

In the US: New-vehicle sales last quarter came in at 3.3 million, according to the latest Kelley Blue Book counts, a drop from 3.9 million in the first quarter of 2021. Sales in the quarter were down 15.7% year over year

EV sales grew 76% year over year in Q1, in line with our January prediction for EV growth to outpace industry growth in 2022. EV share jumped from 2.5% of sales in Q1 2021 to 5.2% in Q1 2022.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig

And globally:

Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) — including fully electric and hybrid vehicles — doubled on the year in 2021 to a record 6.6mn and have remained strong this year thanks to sustained policy support, the IEA said today, 23 May.

Of global car sales in 2021, nearly 10pc were EVs, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2334319-ev-sales-doubled-in-2021-but-growth-must-continue-iea

The only growth in the car market was due to EVs.

image.thumb.png.864b5ce604808b54190cc4f7d7751173.png

 

And please remember cars don't last forever. Old cars are retired at about 5% per year.

 

Again, these are only partial market numbers, and represent EV sales of less than 1% of the vehicle market. You are only looking at a portion of the market and using percentages, which is higher for those products emerging from a tiny base.

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(edited)

The ESG revolution is running aground, as the realities of the energy space overwhelm the hysterical propaganda of the ESG acolytes.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/ESG-Crusade-On-Backburner-As-World-Grapples-With-Energy-Crisis.html

"...with energy security concerns front and center and governments prioritizing energy supply in the biggest energy market shock in decades, demand for oil and gas is set to rise in the short term, while chronic underinvestment would plague supply in the medium term. "

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 

You keep forgetting that we have the actual numbers. The ICE market is not growing but EVs are.

In the US: New-vehicle sales last quarter came in at 3.3 million, according to the latest Kelley Blue Book counts, a drop from 3.9 million in the first quarter of 2021. Sales in the quarter were down 15.7% year over year

EV sales grew 76% year over year in Q1, in line with our January prediction for EV growth to outpace industry growth in 2022. EV share jumped from 2.5% of sales in Q1 2021 to 5.2% in Q1 2022.

https://www.coxautoinc.com/market-insig

And globally:

Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) — including fully electric and hybrid vehicles — doubled on the year in 2021 to a record 6.6mn and have remained strong this year thanks to sustained policy support, the IEA said today, 23 May.

Of global car sales in 2021, nearly 10pc were EVs, https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2334319-ev-sales-doubled-in-2021-but-growth-must-continue-iea

The only growth in the car market was due to EVs.

image.thumb.png.864b5ce604808b54190cc4f7d7751173.png

 

And please remember cars don't last forever. Old cars are retired at about 5% per year.

 

5% of what? Certainly not 5% of the vehicle market, Jay. That is preposterous.

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(edited)

8 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

5% of what? Certainly not 5% of the vehicle market, Jay. That is preposterous.

I updated my calculation and the retirement rate is actually 6.4% of the vehicle market in the US.

In 2020 the total number of registered light duty vehicles ,which includes pickups, in the US actually decreased, that means your total market didn't grow, it shrunk:

The total decrease from 2019 to 2020 of light duty vehicles which includes pickups was 700K.

image.png.9886547a632884b9142593366f597d82.png

https://www.bts.gov/content/number-us-aircraft-vehicles-vessels-and-other-conveyances

In 2019 LDV new sales were 17.4M.

In 2020 LDV new sales were 16.8M 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0

That means the number of vehicles retired in 2020 was 17.5M which is a retirement rate of 6.9%.

 

I was curious so I went ahead and calculated the retirement rate for four years from 2017 to 2020 which is the most recent data on total registered LDV. Average retirement rate of 6.4% per year.

image.png.5e89892e8fa38b9ff398566a770e6140.png

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Again, these are only partial market numbers, and represent EV sales of less than 1% of the vehicle market. You are only looking at a portion of the market and using percentages, which is higher for those products emerging from a tiny base.

Used  cars only come from one place and that is the new car market. The total market only increases if the new car market is larger than the retirement rate.

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2022/05/25/john-kerry-hobnobs-chinese-officials-davos/

 

John Kerry Hobnobs with Chinese Officials at Davos

  US climate envoy John Kerry (L) attends next to China's special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua during a session at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos on May 24, 2022. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images
JOHN HAYWARD
25 May 202221
3:51

Chinese state media on Thursday was delighted to report the Biden administration’s “climate envoy,” John Kerry, met with Chinese representatives at the World Economic Forum (WEF) to discuss “room for cooperation on climate change amid bilateral tensions.”

China — the world’s worst polluter by far, with a seemingly bottomless appetite for burning dirty coal to fuel its industrial engine — lectured Kerry about “the U.S.’ inconsistency in global climate cooperation and tendency to politicize the issue,” according to the state-run Global Times.

The Chinese Communist paper’s account of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland, between Kerry and China’s “special climate envoy” Xie Zhenhua reads like a satire of opportunistic China using climate change as a club to bludgeon its Western competitors, while the Chinese litter the developing world with coal-fired power plants:

“It isn’t just about words anymore – it is about action. Action, now, is critical.” These words by Xie were a call to arms to all people, and especially global leaders, to radically transform the way the global economy functions if “we’re to avoid climate catastrophe,” according to an article published on the website of the World Economic Forum.

Kerry and Xie have been working closely on finding climate solutions, with Kerry noting that “For at least the next 8 years, we must radically change our economic system and our reliance on fossil fuels if we’re to stay aligned to Paris Agreement targets. This is the real battle of our time,” said the article.

Xie stressed that China will take actions in three aspects: policy formulation, energy transformation and forest carbon sinks, which include promoting the green and low-carbon energy transformation, strengthening forest carbon sinks, and responding to the “Trillion Tree Campaign” launched by the WEF by striving to plant 70 billion trees in 10 years.

The Associated Press

A coal-fired power plant on the Yangtze River in Nantong in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on Dec. 12, 2018. (Chinatopix via AP)

China might be willing to plant some trees, but it most certainly is not greening or transforming its rapacious energy consumption. The Chinese are building more coal power plants than the rest of the world combined and running an all-out campaign to “produce as much coal as possible” to fuel them, to quote China’s National Development and Reform Commission. China plans to increase coal production by 300 million tons this year, having been spooked by a severe energy crisis in late 2021.

The Global Times ignored China’s record to insist Xie’s visit to Davos demonstrated “China’s sincere attitude toward climate cooperation,” while the U.S. allegedly has an “erratic approach to international cooperation on climate issues” that has “damaged its international credibility,” especially after the Trump administration withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. 

Of course, the Global Times did not mention that one of former President Donald Trump’s chief complaints about the Paris agreement was that it allowed China to pollute heavily for a decade to come — which it is doing — while imposing steep and immediate costs on the United States.

“In contrast to some European countries, the U.S. has again failed to get bills addressing climate change into the legislative process. Given its domestic political situation, maintaining a consistent strategy or finding a smooth path to legislation is hardly guaranteed,” the Global Times complained.

“China-U.S. cooperation on climate change cannot be divorced from the overall situation of China-U.S. relations. The U.S. should work with China to meet each other halfway and take positive actions to bring China-U.S. relations back on track,” the editorial pontificated, suggesting Beijing thinks it has a good chance of squeezing concessions from the Biden administration.

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(edited)

On 5/24/2022 at 9:21 PM, Ron Wagner said:

Great, I hope they do well and and there is enough electricity to keep them running. Just don't expect wind and solar to be up to the job anytime soon. I also hope that they are affordable vehicles, which I doubt we will seeing anytime soon. 

there is enough electricity to keep them running. Just don't expect wind and solar to be up to the job anytime soon.???

thanks for the lead in 

 

the following stats show that Wind and Solar are doing the job now with enough to spare. Please note  coal electricity production in the US down again.

 

So lets look at the real numbers

EV's expected to be added to the US market 2022....say 1 Million (that would be around 6.6 percent of the new vehicle market (15 million annual selling in the US) would need 5 GWH added capacity

 

.35 kwh per mile

14,263 miles per year or 4992 KWH per year per car (lets call it 5000 KWH)

for a million new cars added we need an additional 5.0 GWH

Now lets shoot for the EV market increase to  2 million cars sold in 2022 or 13.2 percent of the market

2 million????     10.0 GWH per year

Latest stats on US wind and solar and coal production

Year to date 2022 compared to 2021 (first 3 months)

Wind electricity production up 22.9 %

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Wind Utility Scale Facilities 2022   119,586               2021    97,266  

 

 

up 22.3 GWH

 

Solar electricity production up  31.8%

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Estimated Total Solar All Facilities 2022      41,069        2021      31,169  

 

up 9.9  GWH

 

so far wind and solar are up 32.2 GWH in 3 months or at an annual rate increase from 2021 to 2022 at 148.8 GWH

looks like wind and solar have covered a 2 million EV cars added to the US in 2022 14.8 times

 

so where does the excess production lead to..........that is right the reduction in the need for coal

 

 

Coal electricity production down 5.3%

(Thousand Megawatthours)

 

Coal Utility Scale Facilities 2022   219,035                 2021     231,368

 

down 12.3 GWH

 

or on an annual rate down 49.2 GWH

Edited by notsonice

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On 4/23/2021 at 3:04 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

The country and our economy is going to go through the roof with all the new investment. Thermal solar towers were indeed a mistake that occurred before the exponential cost decline of solar panels. No more will be built and when their contract runs out they will be shut down and replaced with standard panels. Technological advancement usually has a few dead ends along the way to success. Anyway if this is what you are going to try and hang your hat on, expect to be picking it up off of the ground because Ivanpah and Crescent Dunes have nothing to do with the future.

Such mistakes also happen in the fossil industry. A good example is the Inland Empire Energy Center which is being demolished after just a few years in operation because its turbines were a dead end design. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ge-power/general-electric-to-scrap-california-power-plant-20-years-early-idUSKCN1TM2MV

Don't forget to tap your heels three times - man with two economic degrees.

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On 5/25/2022 at 12:49 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

I updated my calculation and the retirement rate is actually 6.4% of the vehicle market in the US.

In 2020 the total number of registered light duty vehicles ,which includes pickups, in the US actually decreased, that means your total market didn't grow, it shrunk:

The total decrease from 2019 to 2020 of light duty vehicles which includes pickups was 700K.

image.png.9886547a632884b9142593366f597d82.png

https://www.bts.gov/content/number-us-aircraft-vehicles-vessels-and-other-conveyances

In 2019 LDV new sales were 17.4M.

In 2020 LDV new sales were 16.8M 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TOTALSA#0

That means the number of vehicles retired in 2020 was 17.5M which is a retirement rate of 6.9%.

 

I was curious so I went ahead and calculated the retirement rate for four years from 2017 to 2020 which is the most recent data on total registered LDV. Average retirement rate of 6.4% per year.

image.png.5e89892e8fa38b9ff398566a770e6140.png

 

Jay, you are being ridiculous again.

The used vehicle market is more than three times the size of the new market, and that means that EVs are still less than 1% of the vehicle market.

You are just recycling the same nonsense.

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13 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.breitbart.com/environment/2022/05/25/john-kerry-hobnobs-chinese-officials-davos/

 

John Kerry Hobnobs with Chinese Officials at Davos

  US climate envoy John Kerry (L) attends next to China's special climate envoy Xie Zhenhua during a session at the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos on May 24, 2022. (Photo by Fabrice COFFRINI / AFP) (Photo by FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images)FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP via Getty Images

JOHN HAYWARD
25 May 202221
3:51

Chinese state media on Thursday was delighted to report the Biden administration’s “climate envoy,” John Kerry, met with Chinese representatives at the World Economic Forum (WEF) to discuss “room for cooperation on climate change amid bilateral tensions.”

China — the world’s worst polluter by far, with a seemingly bottomless appetite for burning dirty coal to fuel its industrial engine — lectured Kerry about “the U.S.’ inconsistency in global climate cooperation and tendency to politicize the issue,” according to the state-run Global Times.

The Chinese Communist paper’s account of the meeting in Davos, Switzerland, between Kerry and China’s “special climate envoy” Xie Zhenhua reads like a satire of opportunistic China using climate change as a club to bludgeon its Western competitors, while the Chinese litter the developing world with coal-fired power plants:

“It isn’t just about words anymore – it is about action. Action, now, is critical.” These words by Xie were a call to arms to all people, and especially global leaders, to radically transform the way the global economy functions if “we’re to avoid climate catastrophe,” according to an article published on the website of the World Economic Forum.

Kerry and Xie have been working closely on finding climate solutions, with Kerry noting that “For at least the next 8 years, we must radically change our economic system and our reliance on fossil fuels if we’re to stay aligned to Paris Agreement targets. This is the real battle of our time,” said the article.

Xie stressed that China will take actions in three aspects: policy formulation, energy transformation and forest carbon sinks, which include promoting the green and low-carbon energy transformation, strengthening forest carbon sinks, and responding to the “Trillion Tree Campaign” launched by the WEF by striving to plant 70 billion trees in 10 years.

The Associated Press

A coal-fired power plant on the Yangtze River in Nantong in eastern China’s Jiangsu province on Dec. 12, 2018. (Chinatopix via AP)

China might be willing to plant some trees, but it most certainly is not greening or transforming its rapacious energy consumption. The Chinese are building more coal power plants than the rest of the world combined and running an all-out campaign to “produce as much coal as possible” to fuel them, to quote China’s National Development and Reform Commission. China plans to increase coal production by 300 million tons this year, having been spooked by a severe energy crisis in late 2021.

The Global Times ignored China’s record to insist Xie’s visit to Davos demonstrated “China’s sincere attitude toward climate cooperation,” while the U.S. allegedly has an “erratic approach to international cooperation on climate issues” that has “damaged its international credibility,” especially after the Trump administration withdrew from the Paris climate agreement. 

Of course, the Global Times did not mention that one of former President Donald Trump’s chief complaints about the Paris agreement was that it allowed China to pollute heavily for a decade to come — which it is doing — while imposing steep and immediate costs on the United States.

“In contrast to some European countries, the U.S. has again failed to get bills addressing climate change into the legislative process. Given its domestic political situation, maintaining a consistent strategy or finding a smooth path to legislation is hardly guaranteed,” the Global Times complained.

“China-U.S. cooperation on climate change cannot be divorced from the overall situation of China-U.S. relations. The U.S. should work with China to meet each other halfway and take positive actions to bring China-U.S. relations back on track,” the editorial pontificated, suggesting Beijing thinks it has a good chance of squeezing concessions from the Biden administration.

This shows the political posturing which constitutes climate policy. All talk and no action, which is probably a good thing for humanity.

The ill-conceived and ill-advised "climate agenda" is better acknowledged in the current system of avoidance rather than in actual implementation, which would be  a disaster for everyone.

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11 hours ago, notsonice said:

there is enough electricity to keep them running. Just don't expect wind and solar to be up to the job anytime soon.???

thanks for the lead in 

 

the following stats show that Wind and Solar are doing the job now with enough to spare. Please note  coal electricity production in the US down again.

 

So lets look at the real numbers

EV's expected to be added to the US market 2022....say 1 Million (that would be around 6.6 percent of the new vehicle market (15 million annual selling in the US) would need 5 GWH added capacity

 

.35 kwh per mile

14,263 miles per year or 4992 KWH per year per car (lets call it 5000 KWH)

for a million new cars added we need an additional 5.0 GWH

Now lets shoot for the EV market increase to  2 million cars sold in 2022 or 13.2 percent of the market

2 million????     10.0 GWH per year

Latest stats on US wind and solar and coal production

Year to date 2022 compared to 2021 (first 3 months)

Wind electricity production up 22.9 %

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Wind Utility Scale Facilities 2022   119,586               2021    97,266  

 

 

up 22.3 GWH

 

Solar electricity production up  31.8%

(Thousand Megawatthours)

Estimated Total Solar All Facilities 2022      41,069        2021      31,169  

 

up 9.9  GWH

 

so far wind and solar are up 32.2 GWH in 3 months or at an annual rate increase from 2021 to 2022 at 148.8 GWH

looks like wind and solar have covered a 2 million EV cars added to the US in 2022 14.8 times

 

so where does the excess production lead to..........that is right the reduction in the need for coal

 

 

Coal electricity production down 5.3%

(Thousand Megawatthours)

 

Coal Utility Scale Facilities 2022   219,035                 2021     231,368

 

down 12.3 GWH

 

or on an annual rate down 49.2 GWH

Coal generated electricity increasing world wide by huge amounts.

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1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you are being ridiculous again.

The used vehicle market is more than three times the size of the new market, and that means that EVs are still less than 1% of the vehicle market.

You are just recycling the same nonsense.

EVs are now 6% of the US new market so that puts them at over 1% of the total market if the used market is three times the size. If only you could do math.

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5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EVs are now 6% of the US new market so that puts them at over 1% of the total market if the used market is three times the size. If only you could do math.

You also have to include SUV and larger truck markets, new and used, which takes your numbers below 1%.

You are math challenged, as well as economically challenged, it would seem.

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(edited)

31 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

You also have to include SUV and larger truck markets, new and used, which takes your numbers below 1%.

You are math challenged, as well as economically challenged, it would seem.

No, those markets are included, both new and used. You remain clueless. EVs are over 1% of the total market.

A real economist actually looks up the real numbers like I do instead of just making baseless claims like you do.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

This is what happens when misguided politicians declare war on 85% of the economy's energy supply, huge roadblocks to the functioning of basic supplies and essential products.

The result is a disastrous reduction in the standard of living for every American.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Why-You-Should-Care-About-The-Price-Of-Diesel.html

"The price of gasoline is considered one of the most important indicators for everything from the health of the national economy to the President's approval, but diesel plays a more important role.

Diesel, the fuel that drives the national economy, is used as the primary fuel in trucking, shipping, mining, manufacturing, and farming.

The current shortage on the east coast of the U.S. and around the world is a worrying development that could have huge consequences for the global economy."

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

26 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

No, those markets are included, both new and used. You remain clueless. EVs are over 1% of the total market.

A real economist actually looks up the real numbers like I do instead of just making baseless claims like you do.

That is not what the numbers show, Jay. You better read your own data, friend.

Your numbers do not include used vehicles as a percentage of markets.

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

That is not what the numbers show, Jay. 

What numbers? You haven't shown any numbers. By all means show us your numbers.

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(edited)

6 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

What numbers? You haven't shown any numbers. By all means show us your numbers.

Read my post above....your numbers do not show used vehicle sales as a percentage of markets.

You are off on another tangent, stick to the topic. 

Edited by Ecocharger
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(edited)

8 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

What numbers? You haven't shown any numbers. By all means show us your numbers.

Ford's U.S. sales decline 33% in August as chip shortage devastates auto industry

 

Chip shortage tanks GM's third-quarter sales

PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 1 2021 10:36 AM EDTUPDATED FRI, OCT 1 2021 4:37 PM EDT
 
Michael Wayland
@MIKEWAYLAND
KEY POINTS
  • GM on Friday said it sold about 447,000 vehicles from July through September, down 32.8% from a year earlier.
  • The decline was slightly wider than industry analysts' expectations of 28.9% and 31.5%.
  • GM continues to maintain its financial guidance for the year, including adjusted earnings between $11.5 billion and $13.5 billion, or $5.40 to $6.40 a share.

283856134_5278254465528657_292389416662959369_n.jpg

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Read my post above....your numbers do not show used vehicle sales as a percentage of markets.

You are off on another tangent, stick to the topic. 

You are such a buffoon. You are the one who said that used vehicle sales are three times that of new vehicles and you are correct. At that ratio 6% of the new car market works out to 1.5% of total market including new and used. Adding in the used EV sales would just increase the percentage.

 

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