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(edited)

1 hour ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I suppose in your world the entire new car market is well below 1% of the total vehicle market value.

Just add up the numbers, old boy, even though you lack a regular economics degree you should be able to handle that assignment.

Edited by Ecocharger

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2 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Just add up the numbers, old boy, even though you lack a regular economics degree you should be able to handle that assignment.

Oh yes I have added up the numbers and as I have told you many times 10% of the new car market is easily over 1% of the total vehicle market value. I do enjoy you making a fool out of yourself for all to see claiming otherwise.

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Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

Oh yes I have added up the numbers and as I have told you many times 10% of the new car market is easily over 1% of the total vehicle market value. I do enjoy you making a fool out of yourself for all to see claiming otherwise.

As I recall you avoided adding up the total vehicle market values, and I guess you are still refusing to do that.

Easily below 1% for EVs.

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3 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

As I recall you avoided adding up the total vehicle market values, and I guess you are still refusing to do that.

Easily below 1% for EVs.

I added up the total road vehicle market which is the relevant market. Contrary to your silly ideas, cruise ships and locomotives are not part of the same market.

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(edited)

15 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I added up the total road vehicle market which is the relevant market. Contrary to your silly ideas, cruise ships and locomotives are not part of the same market.

You looked at numbers, I want values...including trucks, buses, motorcycles, trains, anything that moves on rubber, like planes.

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

14 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You looked at numbers, I want values...including trucks, buses, motorcycles, trains, anything that moves on rubber, like planes.

 If you want to show some numbers for a nonsense market you can figure it out and show us. We will all have a good laugh. Meanwhile EV sales just keep skyrocketing and are well over 1% of the total road vehicle market value. 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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54 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Golf carts?

Yeah golf carts that are replacing your favorite ICE vehicles.

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(edited)

the death of big oil , one EV at a time....The Business Standard

 

The Business Standard

 

Reuters
22 June, 2022, 08:45 pm
Last modified: 22 June, 2022, 08:50 pm

Electric vehicles could take 33% of global sales by 2028-AlixPartners

EVs accounted for less than 8% of global sales last year, and just under 10% in the first quarter of 2022

 

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

Electric vehicle sales could reach 33% globally by 2028 and 54% by 2035, as demand accelerates in most major markets, consultant AlixPartners said on Wednesday.

EVs accounted for less than 8% of global sales last year, and just under 10% in the first quarter of 2022.

To support that demand, automakers and suppliers now expect to invest at least $526 billion on EVs and batteries from 2022-2026, the firm said at its annual Global Automotive Outlook briefing. That is more than double the five-year EV investment forecast of $234 billion from 2020-2024.

Those higher investments "have now made EV growth inevitable," according to Mark Wakefield, co-leader of the firm's automotive practice.

The industry still faces economic and supply chain challenges during the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to EVs, Wakefield added.

The transition will require "drastic changes to operating models -- not just plants and people, but the whole way of working," he said.

Some companies will benefit from separating their ICE and EV businesses, he added.

Raw materials for EVs also cost more than twice those for ICEs: $8,255 per vehicle vs $3,662 per vehicle, as of May 2022.

The ICE-to-EV transition will cost automakers and suppliers a cumulative $70 billion by 2030, according to Elmar Kades, co-leader of the automotive practice, including bankruptcies and restructuring.

AlixPartners sees supply constraints continuing into 2024, and expects total global vehicle sales to dip to 79 million units this year, before climbing to 95 million in 2024.

In the United States, total vehicle sales are expected to rise to 16 million in 2023 and peak at 17.5 million in 2024 before starting to decline in 2025-2026.

 

The Business Standard

Edited by notsonice
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10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Tesla prepares to upgrade Gigafactory Shanghai to produce 21,000 EVs per week

Tesla gigafactory Shanghai main hero

Tesla is preparing to partly shut down Gigafactory Shanghai for a few weeks in order to upgrade the factory to a production capacity of 21,000 electric vehicles per week.

After a forced shutdown due to COVID-19 restrictions in Shanghai and then supply chain issues limiting the production, Tesla is now preparing to do a voluntary shut down to at least part of the production in order to do some significant upgrades.

Bloomberg reported that the upgrade will start in July and run through early August, and the upgrade aims to bring the total production to over 21,000 vehicles per week:

Upgrade work at the factory south of Shanghai is expected to be complete by around Aug. 7, with output of the Model Y SUV then increased to 14,000 units a week, from about 11,000 pre-pandemic, and production of the Model 3 sedan at 7,700 units a week from 5,500 previously, the people said.

This would bring Tesla’s production capacity in Shanghai to over 1 million electric vehicles per year.

CEO Elon Musk recently noted that Gigafactory Shanghai is just now back to a full production capacity of about half a million vehicles per year after the citywide lockdown. But prior to the shutdown, Tesla was already planning to greatly expand Gigafactory Shanghai to the point where the expansion has been referred to as a whole new factory.

If the upgrade is successful, Tesla is expecting that Gigafactory Shanghai will become the world’s largest vehicle export hub. Many vehicles produced at Gigafactory Shanghai are exported to other Asian markets, Oceania, and Europe.

Sales of electric vehicles have plummeted in China.

The country is now reportedly considering more tax breaks for electric vehicles.

Extending EV tax exemptions could help bolster sales in the auto sector.

Join Our Community

China is reportedly mulling more tax breaks for electric vehicles, just months after it was widely thought that Beijing would be phasing out subsidies for EVs. 

The news came as Chinese state television "reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases in a bid to boost the auto sector," Bloomberg reported in a wrap up on Thursday. 

The government is reportedly considering extending exemptions by roughly 200 billion yuan ($30 billion), the report says. The consideration was discussed during a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, Bloomberg wrote. 

Recall, just 5 days ago we reported that Shanghai City was going to be subsidizing the purchase of pure electric vehicles with 10,000 yuan per unit incentives, beginning in June and ending at the end of 2022, the local government said.

"Consumers whose vehicles have been sold or scrapped will receive the subsidy if they purchase a new pure electric vehicle from dealers or stores registered in Shanghai," Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up last week. 

Related: 4 Nations That Could Help Solve The Global Fuel Crisis

Sales of electric vehicles have plummeted in China.
The country is now reportedly considering more tax breaks for electric vehicles.
Extending EV tax exemptions could help bolster sales in the auto sector.
Join Our Community

China is reportedly mulling more tax breaks for electric vehicles, just months after it was widely thought that Beijing would be phasing out subsidies for EVs. 

The news came as Chinese state television "reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases in a bid to boost the auto sector," Bloomberg reported in a wrap up on Thursday. 

The government is reportedly considering extending exemptions by roughly 200 billion yuan ($30 billion), the report says. The consideration was discussed during a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, Bloomberg wrote. 

Recall, just 5 days ago we reported that Shanghai City was going to be subsidizing the purchase of pure electric vehicles with 10,000 yuan per unit incentives, beginning in June and ending at the end of 2022, the local government said.

"Consumers whose vehicles have been sold or scrapped will receive the subsidy if they purchase a new pure electric vehicle from dealers or stores registered in Shanghai," Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up last week. 

"--->>>>>Also last week we had pointed out that Tesla's Shanghai plant was back up and running at full capacity, and that the extent of the electric vehicle market's success this year will continue to rely on whether or not Beijing embraces subsidies. 

The country has been mulling whether or not to extend EV subsidies after announcing last year that it was going to conclude them in 2023. Since then, Beijing has been re-thinking the idea amidst slowing demand for autos. About two weeks ago we reported that Chinese auto sales were down 17% year over year. <<<<<----"

By Zerohedge.com

Can't believe the Chinese figures as this story says the opposite as to Jay's figures? I think there is alot of shady numbers for any and all vehicle manufactures!!! They all want the investors to keep their bucks in the "companies" and lie to keep locked in. 

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1 hour ago, Old-Ruffneck said:

Sales of electric vehicles have plummeted in China.

The country is now reportedly considering more tax breaks for electric vehicles.

Extending EV tax exemptions could help bolster sales in the auto sector.

Join Our Community

China is reportedly mulling more tax breaks for electric vehicles, just months after it was widely thought that Beijing would be phasing out subsidies for EVs. 

The news came as Chinese state television "reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases in a bid to boost the auto sector," Bloomberg reported in a wrap up on Thursday. 

The government is reportedly considering extending exemptions by roughly 200 billion yuan ($30 billion), the report says. The consideration was discussed during a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, Bloomberg wrote. 

Recall, just 5 days ago we reported that Shanghai City was going to be subsidizing the purchase of pure electric vehicles with 10,000 yuan per unit incentives, beginning in June and ending at the end of 2022, the local government said.

"Consumers whose vehicles have been sold or scrapped will receive the subsidy if they purchase a new pure electric vehicle from dealers or stores registered in Shanghai," Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up last week. 

Related: 4 Nations That Could Help Solve The Global Fuel Crisis

Sales of electric vehicles have plummeted in China.
The country is now reportedly considering more tax breaks for electric vehicles.
Extending EV tax exemptions could help bolster sales in the auto sector.
Join Our Community

China is reportedly mulling more tax breaks for electric vehicles, just months after it was widely thought that Beijing would be phasing out subsidies for EVs. 

The news came as Chinese state television "reported that the government may extend tax exemptions on electric-car purchases in a bid to boost the auto sector," Bloomberg reported in a wrap up on Thursday. 

The government is reportedly considering extending exemptions by roughly 200 billion yuan ($30 billion), the report says. The consideration was discussed during a State Council meeting chaired by Premier Li Keqiang, Bloomberg wrote. 

Recall, just 5 days ago we reported that Shanghai City was going to be subsidizing the purchase of pure electric vehicles with 10,000 yuan per unit incentives, beginning in June and ending at the end of 2022, the local government said.

"Consumers whose vehicles have been sold or scrapped will receive the subsidy if they purchase a new pure electric vehicle from dealers or stores registered in Shanghai," Bloomberg wrote in a wrap up last week. 

"--->>>>>Also last week we had pointed out that Tesla's Shanghai plant was back up and running at full capacity, and that the extent of the electric vehicle market's success this year will continue to rely on whether or not Beijing embraces subsidies. 

The country has been mulling whether or not to extend EV subsidies after announcing last year that it was going to conclude them in 2023. Since then, Beijing has been re-thinking the idea amidst slowing demand for autos. About two weeks ago we reported that Chinese auto sales were down 17% year over year. <<<<<----"

By Zerohedge.com

Can't believe the Chinese figures as this story says the opposite as to Jay's figures? I think there is alot of shady numbers for any and all vehicle manufactures!!! They all want the investors to keep their bucks in the "companies" and lie to keep locked in. 

If you are referring to the article that was sourced from Zerohedge.com, the figures do not contradict what Jay posted. In the bullet point at the top of the article it states "Sales of electric vehicles have plummeted in China," and nowhere in the rest of the article do they back up this statement. The number they provide (17% drop in sales) is for the ENTIRE auto sector. The numbers that Jay sourced are that EV (and hybrids/plug-in hybrids) sales are up. So what that means is....sales of ICE vehicles are down significantly (at some rate that must be greater than 17%), and the hybrid/EV sales are actually making the percentage drop in sales less than it would be otherwise. In my opinion, whoever wrote the article was trying to mislead people, hoping that they would connect the first bullet point with the 17% drop in sales for all autos figure.

I am not sure who makes decisions about what articles to push out to the oilprice.com community, but they should know better than to use Zerohedge.com--it really is at the bottom of the barrel in terms of factual/reliable reporting.

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📢   📢   📢   party pooper..... party pooper........ party pooooopppppeeerrr........... 📢   📢

image.png.45f5e140121a7b9046e9bed00f52ae6e.png

we might be familiar with this type of EV, yes? and the cousin..........

image.png.8f3cb63082c4236554fb42bdc2cf8a8e.png

we have been rather focus on individual EV which could be problematic e.g. charging power surge and disruption to old grid; messy construction of new grid; limitation of lithium and batteries; limitation on steel. Aluminum is used instead as car body (the crushed test is..................😣); EV software hacked and safety affected etc.....

We dispute over the percentage and importance of enlarging market status of individual EV, neglecting all possible problems discussed, emerged etc........

Wondering if the creators/ engineers of those two cousins of antique EV are still around? Why haven't they make a sound?  :(

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(edited)

17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 If you want to show some numbers for a nonsense market you can figure it out and show us. We will all have a good laugh. Meanwhile EV sales just keep skyrocketing and are well over 1% of the total road vehicle market value. 

The only thing that counts is value, real money on the table. So we want to look at market value, which puts EVs well below the 1% barrier, and not of general interest to anyone.

And for the overall transportation sector, EVs are a miniscule contribution to the transport of people and goods.

A fraction of a fraction of 1%.

Edited by Ecocharger

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17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yeah golf carts that are replacing your favorite ICE vehicles.

For trips around the back yard and the golf course.

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10 hours ago, notsonice said:

the death of big oil , one EV at a time....The Business Standard

 

The Business Standard

 

Reuters
22 June, 2022, 08:45 pm
Last modified: 22 June, 2022, 08:50 pm

Electric vehicles could take 33% of global sales by 2028-AlixPartners

EVs accounted for less than 8% of global sales last year, and just under 10% in the first quarter of 2022

 

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

A charging port is seen on a Mercedes Benz EQC 400 4Matic electric vehicle at the Canadian International AutoShow in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, February 13, 2019. REUTERS/Mark Blinch/File Photo

Electric vehicle sales could reach 33% globally by 2028 and 54% by 2035, as demand accelerates in most major markets, consultant AlixPartners said on Wednesday.

EVs accounted for less than 8% of global sales last year, and just under 10% in the first quarter of 2022.

To support that demand, automakers and suppliers now expect to invest at least $526 billion on EVs and batteries from 2022-2026, the firm said at its annual Global Automotive Outlook briefing. That is more than double the five-year EV investment forecast of $234 billion from 2020-2024.

Those higher investments "have now made EV growth inevitable," according to Mark Wakefield, co-leader of the firm's automotive practice.

The industry still faces economic and supply chain challenges during the transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to EVs, Wakefield added.

The transition will require "drastic changes to operating models -- not just plants and people, but the whole way of working," he said.

Some companies will benefit from separating their ICE and EV businesses, he added.

Raw materials for EVs also cost more than twice those for ICEs: $8,255 per vehicle vs $3,662 per vehicle, as of May 2022.

The ICE-to-EV transition will cost automakers and suppliers a cumulative $70 billion by 2030, according to Elmar Kades, co-leader of the automotive practice, including bankruptcies and restructuring.

AlixPartners sees supply constraints continuing into 2024, and expects total global vehicle sales to dip to 79 million units this year, before climbing to 95 million in 2024.

In the United States, total vehicle sales are expected to rise to 16 million in 2023 and peak at 17.5 million in 2024 before starting to decline in 2025-2026.

 

The Business Standard

With lithium prices skyrocketing, only the rich will be able to afford EVs in the near future. So do not expect any EV breakthrough.

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(edited)

56 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The only thing that counts is value, real money on the table. So we want to look at market value, which puts EVs well below the 1% barrier, and not of general interest to anyone.

The relevant market is road vehicles and EVs account for well over 1% of that value and increasing every day. According to your purporte analysis the entire automobile market is "not of general interest to anyone". Please keep making a fool of yourself for all to see. EV sales just keep skyrocketing.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

46 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

With lithium prices skyrocketing, only the rich will be able to afford EVs in the near future. So do not expect any EV breakthrough.

A claim right up there with the one you made a few posts back about EV sales plummeting which I summarily showed to be false.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

On 6/25/2022 at 7:57 AM, notsonice said:

The average UK gasoline price has been around £1.90 per liter this week, or the equivalent of more than $8.80 per U.S. gallon.

"A total of 45 percent of UK adults have cut back on non-essential journeys in a vehicle amid soaring fuel prices...

Thanks for making the case for EV's and Hyrbids..................

your gas powered clunkers are dragging down the standards of living across the UK......

Thanks to your pal Putin and your best friends in Saudi Arabia you now are paying ransom at the pump to your real masters....

Putin and the Saudis hate EVs and so do their low IQ, fossil fuel loving, fans

The above is undeniably the truth in the UK

A large proportion of taxis are now EV because it costs the self employed Uber taxi driver very little to go 300 miles compared to an ICE vehicle. Once the juice gets low they take a break and recharge and off they go again.

The uptake on hybrids and EV's is certainly not slowing down, if anything the demand for EV's is skyrocketing even more due to fuel costs.

The issue EV manufacturers have is they cannot cope with current demand. If you ordered one today you will be waiting 12 months for delivery.

Edited by Rob Plant
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On 6/26/2022 at 5:04 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

The relevant market is road vehicles and EVs account for well over 1% of that value and increasing every day. According to your purporte analysis the entire automobile market is "not of general interest to anyone". Please keep making a fool of yourself for all to see. EV sales just keep skyrocketing.

No, the relevant variable is transportation of goods and people. On that basis EVs are not even a pin-prick in the value of transportation services, and that will continue.

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(edited)

The Green Revolution is now officially over and done

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/germany-pushes-for-g-7-reversal-on-fossil-fuels-in-climate-blow-1.1783650

 "...G-7 shift from a commitment initiated last year and firmed up in May would be a u-turn in global efforts to fight climate change. It would make it harder to rally the rest of the world around more stringent targets and direct investments toward cleaner sources of energy. 

It would also go against International Energy Agency advice that no new oil and gas projects should be developed if the world is to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. 

G-7 ministers, in making their commitment to end direct international financing of fossil fuels by the end of 2022, acknowledged for the first time that fossil fuel subsidies were incompatible with the Paris Agreement. The group also reaffirmed a commitment to end “inefficient” fossil fuel subsidies by 2025."

Edited by Ecocharger
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On 6/26/2022 at 5:41 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

A claim right up there with the one you made a few posts back about EV sales plummeting which I summarily showed to be false.

EVs will run into a brick wall with the skyrocketing cost of inputs such as lithium and cobalt.

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, the relevant variable is transportation of goods and people. On that basis EVs are not even a pin-prick in the value of transportation services, and that will continue.

Well then according to you all road vehicles amount to only a pin prick. Oh you keep forgetting to add rockets and aircraft carriers and submarines to your dumb proposition. Oh wait, aircraft carriers are EVs and so are submarines and the Mars rovers. 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

EVs will run into a brick wall with the skyrocketing cost of inputs such as lithium and cobalt.

Reality says you are incompetent with data analysis as usual.

Cobalt is decreasing in price and it never even exceeded its 2018 high.

image.png.12022ad06a207b8ff1553b8a5c1b305d.png

Oh and let's look at Nickel. Wow, it is way down.

image.png.599608c5492a94b23946ac0c7afef5e0.png

Lithium peaked three months ago. 

image.png.3f11916cab14673c1196947f01877540.png

The price of copper is crashingL

image.png.8eab03088ea0f053cdc4028fa00bf9cf.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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On 6/24/2022 at 7:31 AM, Polyphia said:

Damnant quod non intelligunt.

The voters will judge that in November. The EV revolution is limited by fossil fuel producers worldwide and by the costs involved in switching. It will be a slow and difficult road and none of us will be alive to see it near completion worldwide. 

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On 6/26/2022 at 1:11 PM, specinho said:

📢   📢   📢   party pooper..... party pooper........ party pooooopppppeeerrr........... 📢   📢

 

image.png.45f5e140121a7b9046e9bed00f52ae6e.png

we might be familiar with this type of EV, yes? and the cousin..........

 

 

 

image.png.8f3cb63082c4236554fb42bdc2cf8a8e.png

we have been rather focus on individual EV which could be problematic e.g. charging power surge and disruption to old grid; messy construction of new grid; limitation of lithium and batteries; limitation on steel. Aluminum is used instead as car body (the crushed test is..................😣); EV software hacked and safety affected etc.....

We dispute over the percentage and importance of enlarging market status of individual EV, neglecting all possible problems discussed, emerged etc........

Wondering if the creators/ engineers of those two cousins of antique EV are still around? Why haven't they make a sound?  :(

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_streetcar_conspiracy

I rode these as a child. They covered greater Los Angeles. They now have new versions that run in a few areas but seem to have low use comparatively. 

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On 6/26/2022 at 3:52 PM, Ecocharger said:

The only thing that counts is value, real money on the table. So we want to look at market value, which puts EVs well below the 1% barrier, and not of general interest to anyone.

And for the overall transportation sector, EVs are a miniscule contribution to the transport of people and goods.

A fraction of a fraction of 1%.

Waiting for Tesla semi’s is like waiting for the rise of Mongolian coal. The semi is 1 1/2 years late and it seems yet another year to go. 1 ice semi replacement is equal to 17 ice cars taken off the road. 1 semi is the equivalent of $200,000 in fuel savings. Charging systems are improving so fast it’s difficult to guess what they will be but AI will ensure a human won’t be involved. The world is changing. 

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