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4 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You clueless buffoon. That meeting happened two days ago. It most certainly doesn't explain today's bump up in oil prices. Yesterday, one day after the meeting, gasoline prices were way down.

31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting

No 23/2022
Vienna, Austria
03 Aug 2022

 The 31st OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting was held via videoconference on 3 August 2022.

The Meeting noted the dynamic and rapidly evolving oil market fundamentals, necessitating continuous assessment of market conditions.

The Meeting noted that the severely limited availability of excess capacity necessitates utilizing it with great caution in response to severe supply disruptions.

The Meeting noted that chronic underinvestment in the oil sector has reduced excess capacities along the value chain (upstream/midstream/downstream).

The Meeting highlighted with particular concern that insufficient investment into the upstream sector will impact the availability of adequate supply in a timely manner to meet growing demand beyond 2023 from non-participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, some OPEC Member Countries and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries. 

It noted that preliminary data for OECD commercial oil stocks level stood at 2,712 mb in June 2022, which was 163 mb lower than the same time last year, and 236 mb below the 2015-2019 average, and that emergency oil stocks have reached their lowest levels in more than 30 years.

The Meeting also noted that Declaration of Cooperation conformity has averaged 130% since May 2020, supported by voluntary contributions of some participating countries. 

Emphasizing the value and importance of maintaining consensus as essential to the cohesion of OPEC and participating non-OPEC oil-producing countries, and in view of the latest oil market fundamentals, the Participating Countries decided to:

  1. Reaffirm the decision of the 10th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 and further endorsed in subsequent meetings including the 19th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on the 18 July 2021.
     
  2. Adjust upward the production level for OPEC and non-OPEC Participating Countries by 0.1 mb/d for the month of September 2022 as per the attached table. This adjustment does not affect the baselines decided on the above-mentioned Meeting on 18 July 2021.
     
  3. Reiterate the critical importance of adhering to full conformity and to the compensation mechanism. Compensation plans should be submitted in accordance with the statement of the 15th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting.
     
  4. Hold the 32nd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 5 September 2022.

Read your own material, dummy. Oil markets remain tight and demand is still robust. The numbers may not reflect the reality.

That is the explanation for the rebound today. The markets cannot be fooled indefinitely.

Read this,

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/very-crooked-numbers-biden-admin-accused-fabricating-gas-demand-data-hammer-price-oil

Edited by Ecocharger

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(edited)

8 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Read your own material, dummy. Oil markets remain tight and demand is still robust. The numbers may not reflect the reality.

That is the explanation for the rebound today. The markets cannot be fooled indefinitely.

Your big rebound in prices today is already gone because it was a dead cat bounce. Oil is now down from yesterday's close:

image.thumb.png.6384da13850779d09c9fbdb33c64571c.png

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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On 8/4/2022 at 11:57 AM, Ecocharger said:

We saw 9.25 in July, that sounds good for a Biden recession number. We will see how seriously the Biden recession impacts overall consumer spending, but recessions do not last very long if monetary policy corrects the inflation problem in a short time frame.

Does monetary policy mean replacing Putin? 

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18 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

If you never heard of a dead cat bounce then you aren't an economist.

In finance, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock.[1] Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height",[2] the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly applied to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline. This may also be known as a Sucker Rally.[3]

A "dead cat bounce" price pattern may be used as a part of the technical analysis method of stock trading. Technical analysis describes a dead cat bounce as a continuation pattern in which a reversal of the current decline occurs followed by a significant price recovery. The price fails to continue upward and instead falls again downwards and surpasses the previous low.[14] 

 

Will Alex Jones have a dead cat bounce from the 49 million judgement against him.  Rather a big fall from a high perch. Other noted rather large falls from the Capital riot. One guy got 5 years and another 7 years. Trump used to be god around here. Now just a dead cat hoping for movement. 

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19 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Some suggestions here that the numbers may have been "adjusted" to serve a political purpose.

Certainly oil markets are tight and sales appear to be robust, so how do the numbers reflect something else?

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/very-crooked-numbers-biden-admin-accused-fabricating-gas-demand-data-hammer-price-oil

I think they lopped about 530,000 b/d off the gasoline demand numbers and tacked them on to the job report numbers to make them look good (you know, so the administration can argue that we are not in a recession). I can't wait for Zerohedge to report on that. I mean seriously--what an opportunity for them to kill two conspiracy birds with one stone.

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(edited)

On 8/5/2022 at 1:30 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

Your big rebound in prices today is already gone because it was a dead cat bounce. Oil is now down from yesterday's close:

image.thumb.png.6384da13850779d09c9fbdb33c64571c.png

 

No, there is a real disconnect between series of numbers on gasoline demand, some showing an increase in demand and others (let's call these the "Biden numbers") showing a decline.

The jury is still out.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whats-Really-Happening-With-Gasoline-Demand.html

"Different datasets were noted in the debates, such as GasBuddy’s, which reported a slight increase in demand last week, for example. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan noted the different methodologies of measuring demand and one very, perhaps the most, important difference in these methodologies.

The EIA uses what it calls implied demand or, per its report, “product supplied” by refiners to fuel retailers, while GasBuddy works with the amount of gasoline actually sold by fuel stations. Some accused the EIA of skewing the numbers. Others noted that the weekly numbers for demand are flawed and that errors have been made in the past, too, leading to the wrong estimate for July demand."

Edited by Ecocharger

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17 hours ago, Boat said:

Does monetary policy mean replacing Putin? 

That depends on whether or not  you have studied economics.

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10 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, there is a real disconnect between series of numbers on gasoline demand, some showing an increase in demand and others (let's call these the "Biden numbers") showing a decline.

The jury is still out.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Whats-Really-Happening-With-Gasoline-Demand.html

"Different datasets were noted in the debates, such as GasBuddy’s, which reported a slight increase in demand last week, for example. GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan noted the different methodologies of measuring demand and one very, perhaps the most, important difference in these methodologies.

The EIA uses what it calls implied demand or, per its report, “product supplied” by refiners to fuel retailers, while GasBuddy works with the amount of gasoline actually sold by fuel stations. Some accused the EIA of skewing the numbers. Others noted that the weekly numbers for demand are flawed and that errors have been made in the past, too, leading to the wrong estimate for July demand."

You stopped quoting the article just before the most important para:

"While the debates continue, one thing nobody is arguing about is that U.S. drivers are driving less, and even the 50-day straight price decline has not been enough to motivate them to start driving more – that during the season when everyone travels more, normally."

The jury is in and demand is down, the disagreement is just about how down it is. The EIA also reported an increase in demand last week from the previous week.

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enjoy the reality, Oil demand destruction is the rule of the day, just as EV production in the US is kicking into full gear
 
 
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Gas prices are 30% higher than last year - but fuel demand is cratering to pandemic levels of 2 years ago

prosen@insider.com (Phil Rosen) - Friday
 
 
 
A gas station in America. Karl Hendon/Getty Images
© Karl Hendon/Getty ImagesA gas station in America. Karl Hendon/Getty Images
  • The average gallon of gas in the US costs $4.113 today, compared to $4.800 one month ago. 
  • Prices have declined in recent weeks, however they remain 28.9% higher than one year ago's $3.190 rate. 
  • Fuel demand has dropped off dramatically, hitting levels not seen since the pandemic in July 2020, EIA data shows. 

US gas prices declined to $4.113 Friday, down from $4.800 a month ago. But prices remain 28.9% higher than last year, according to AAA data. 

Expensive pump prices in addition to soaring inflation has put pressure on Americans, and demand has shown signs of waning even through the typically-high demand summer driving season. 

Data from the Energy Information Administration revealed that gas demand dropped from 9.25 million barrels per day to 8.54 million barrels per day last week.

That's on par with demand levels at the end of July 2020 when the COVID-19 pandemic kept drivers off the road. 

The EIA also noted that domestic gasoline stockpiles increased marginally by 200,000 barrels to 225.3 million barrels. The trend could bring further relief at the pump across the US if supply continues to rise and demand moves the opposite way.

Prices at the pump have declined 10 cents over the last week, and crude oil prices have also declined below $90 a barrel for the first time since Russia invaded Ukraine.

OPEC+ announced Wednesday it would boost crude output modestly for September, although the slight increase will likely have minimal impact on oil prices. 

Meanwhile, four months ago gas prices had soared so high that demand destruction appeared to be setting in right as summer travel season was ramping up. In May, demand on a four-week rolling basis hit its lowest point for that time of year since 2013, excluding 2020. 

Then in June gas prices in the US hit a nationwide average of $5 per gallon for the first time in history. All 50 states were paying more than $4.40 on average, with some California cities paying above $7 or $8 per gallon. 

At the time, JPMorgan analysts had forecasted prices could shoot above $6 on average

Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citi said that the dip in crude points to weakening gasoline demand as recession fears increase in the US. 

"It means the market is no longer expecting tightness ahead, it's expecting things to loosen up," Morse told CNBC Thursday. "It's supply purely playing against demand."

Read the original article on Business Insider

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Dodgy Demand Data? The Oil Price Collapse Conspiracy

By Alex Kimani - Aug 07, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT

  • WTI oil prices have given up nearly all their gains since Russia invaded Ukraine, falling roughly 9.5% over the course of the week amid fears oil demand is collapsing.
  • Some oil pundits are now claiming that the Biden administration has been fabricating low gasoline demand data in order to drag prices lower.
  • While Gasbuddy claims there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand.

WTI crude oil prices fell to their lowest point since early February on Thursday, giving up virtually all gains since Russia invaded Ukraine. WTI crude for September delivery tumbled -1.5% to close at $89.26/bbl while Brent crude for October delivery fell -2.1% to $94.71/bbl. WTI crude has lost ~9.5% over the course of the week, marking the largest one-week percentage decline since April amid growing fears that oil demand will collapse when western nations descend into a full-blown recession.

While oil producers are certainly beginning to feel the heat, it’s refiners like Valero Energy (NYSE: VLO), Marathon Petroleum Corp.(NYSE: MPC), and Phillips 66 (NYSE: PSX) who have been hardest hit by the pullback thanks to a sharp decline in their refining margins aka crack spreads.

For months, refiners have been enjoying historically high refining margins, with the profit from making a barrel of gasoil, the building block of diesel and jet kerosene, hitting a record $68.69 in June at a typical Singapore refinery. The margin later settled in the high 30s a few weeks later, a level still nearly four times higher than the $11.83 at the end of last year, and some 550% above the profit margin at the same time in 2021.

But crack spreads have now gone into full reverse: according to Refinitv data, Asian gasoline margins plunged more than 102% in July to a discount of 14 cents a barrel to Brent crude, a far cry from a premium of $38.05 a barrel they reached in June. Asian refining margins have now crashed to just 88 cents a barrel over Dubai crude,  from a record $30.49 in June.

The effect: a sharp rise in inventories from the United States and Singapore to Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp.

Refiners are being forced to cut gasoline output to minimize losses and switch to producing more profitable fuels.

Indeed, Taiwan's Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (6505.T), Asia's top fuel exporter, is planning to reduce operating rates at its residue fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC) units by 5% in the coming weeks, with a Formosa spokesman telling Reuters that the company plans to sell more very low sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) due to higher margins for those products. 

The Big Conspiracy

The collapse in oil prices has been so epic and unexpected that some oil pundits are now accusing the Biden administration of fabricating low gas demand data in a bid to hammer oil prices.

To wit, in late June the EIA shut down reporting for several weeks, ostensibly due to a server malfunction. But as ForexLive has pointed out,  gasoline demand data has been consistently bad ever since the EIA returned: "Maybe there's an issue with reporting or maybe it's a conspiracy", ForexLive has declared.

Even Wall Street has begun questioning the EIA data.

Bank of America energy strategist Doug Legate has published a note titled the "fall of gasoline demand appears grossly exaggerated.’’

"For the week ending July 22nd, implied gasoline demand rebounded to 9.2 million b/d - a 1 million b/d increase vs the last two week average, and the second highest level of 2022," BofA wrote in the note to clients. Curiously, the EIA reported a steep drop in gasoline demand shortly thereafter, prompting Piper Sandler global energy strategist to label the data "crooked", saying the methodology left “significant room for error”. 

Related: What’s Really Happening With Gasoline Demand?

“We are supposed to believe that in July, in the middle of driving season we are only using 8.6 million barrels per day. That would be down half a million barrels a day from May of this year; that would be below the Covid low of 2020,” Sandler noted. “So we ask all the refiners, we ask all the retailers, we ask everybody that reported earnings this season. Every single one of them tells you that their sales are not down materially from even pre-covid days. Some report record high sales,” he added.

Piper Sandler’s allegations are buttressed by U.S. refining giant Valero. Asked about falling gasoline demand at the company’s earnings call last week, CEO Gary Simmons had this to say:

"I can tell you, through our wholesale channel there is really no indication of any demand destruction... In June, we actually set sales records. We read a lot about demand destruction and mobility data showing in that range of 3% to 5% demand destruction. Again, we're not seeing it in our system."

Further, alternate demand data from GasBuddy deviates considerably from EIA’s. GasBuddy tracks retail gasoline demand at the pumps in the U.S. According to GasBuddy, there was a 2% rise in gasoline demand last week, making it the strongest demand of the year. In sharp contrast, the EIA reported a 7.6% drop in demand for the same time period.

The Biden administration certainly is gunning for even lower fuel prices. In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, Amos Hochstein, the White House’s senior adviser for global energy security, said that gas and oil prices need to go even lower while U.S. producers and OPEC+ need to raise output.

But as Adam Button, chief currency analyst at Forexlive, notes, it’s the Biden administration calling the shots now, and “at the end of the day, traders have to trade what’s in front of them”.

 "Right now it's a crude chart that's breaking support after a major period of consolidation -- that's not good. The calls for a recession are growing louder crude demand has a long history of following global growth. There are supply factors that will eventually be bullish -- like the SPR releases ending in October -- but that's months away and OPEC is still adding some barrels,” he said.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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On 8/8/2022 at 1:23 AM, notsonice said:
enjoy the reality, Oil demand destruction is the rule of the day, just as EV production in the US is kicking into full gear
 

EV might have unsettling issues that make it not suitable to go full gear.....

For example

in a discussion board on Electric cars, offered by DEFLTx, someone highlighted the possible problems of existing design. I accidentally deleted my copy of all discussion contributed and can not access the content anymore, expired. This is a rough recall. hope it is still good enough.......

how existing EVs are charged:

AC grid - charger - DC inverter - batteries - AC converter - motor - DC inverter-accessories

Amidst invert and convert; step down and step up, much energy could be wasted. Things heated up as electricity or energy is piling up, waiting to flow to the targeted part, charging time is hence prolonged, efficiency reduced.

The large battery, meter in length, with small contact points , centimeters, or surface area makes it low in efficiency? Suggested improvision.

Besides that, they have several different plugs designed for different models. What if the charging station does not have the type of plug for the type of car in need of charging on emergency? What if facilities could be wasted due to not enough car models at particular places for that specific charging plug?

Raised another question, why there is not separate battery for motor and accessories? One is AC few hundred volts, one is DC ~12V. The staff replied manufacturing perspective. Not too sure if the staff meant convenience to make one large battery for both things.

I also presented my design of car upon answering question of desired EV. Not solving all the problems but most probably a much efficient and environmentally friendly original design.

Do not push in hast....... Or more problems could be waiting to be handled ahead.......

 

 

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On 8/7/2022 at 11:02 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

You stopped quoting the article just before the most important para:

"While the debates continue, one thing nobody is arguing about is that U.S. drivers are driving less, and even the 50-day straight price decline has not been enough to motivate them to start driving more – that during the season when everyone travels more, normally."

The jury is in and demand is down, the disagreement is just about how down it is. The EIA also reported an increase in demand last week from the previous week.

The Biden recession may kick in and drive down not only energy demand but drive down the economy in general. So that is the policy background for everything going down.

You do not have to study economics to see that, so I guess even Jay can understand it.

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8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Anyway back on topic

US Senate passes landmark $430bn climate change, tax and drug pricing bill to lower global warming emissions

https://news.sky.com/story/u-s-senate-passes-landmark-430bn-climate-change-tax-and-drug-pricing-bill-12668146

The progressive liberal mind is..opps and environmentalist is now becoming far to costly to sustain. One can expect a mass deportation from the US...I am quite sure the UK could use such great minds..The US can no longer afford such lunatics...

 

Ford raises price of electric F-150 Lightning by up to $8,500 due to ‘significant’ battery cost increases

 

  • Ford Motor is increasing the starting prices of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup due to “significant material cost increases and other factors.”
  • The starting prices for the 2023 F-150 Lightning will now range from about $47,000 to $97,000, up between $6,000 and $8,500, depending on the model
  • Ford is the latest automaker to increase pricing of its newest electric vehicles amid rising inflation and commodity costs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/ford-increasing-price-of-electric-f-150-lightning-.html

 

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6 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

The progressive liberal mind is..opps and environmentalist is now becoming far to costly to sustain. One can expect a mass deportation from the US...I am quite sure the UK could use such great minds..The US can no longer afford such lunatics...

 

Ford raises price of electric F-150 Lightning by up to $8,500 due to ‘significant’ battery cost increases

 

  • Ford Motor is increasing the starting prices of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup due to “significant material cost increases and other factors.”
  • The starting prices for the 2023 F-150 Lightning will now range from about $47,000 to $97,000, up between $6,000 and $8,500, depending on the model
  • Ford is the latest automaker to increase pricing of its newest electric vehicles amid rising inflation and commodity costs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/ford-increasing-price-of-electric-f-150-lightning-.html

 

Isn't that rich, guess I will keep my diesel burners 🙂  

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30 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

The progressive liberal mind is..opps and environmentalist is now becoming far to costly to sustain. One can expect a mass deportation from the US...I am quite sure the UK could use such great minds..The US can no longer afford such lunatics...

 

Ford raises price of electric F-150 Lightning by up to $8,500 due to ‘significant’ battery cost increases

 

  • Ford Motor is increasing the starting prices of its electric F-150 Lightning pickup due to “significant material cost increases and other factors.”
  • The starting prices for the 2023 F-150 Lightning will now range from about $47,000 to $97,000, up between $6,000 and $8,500, depending on the model
  • Ford is the latest automaker to increase pricing of its newest electric vehicles amid rising inflation and commodity costs.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/09/ford-increasing-price-of-electric-f-150-lightning-.html

 

You can’t get it right. Because you think right. You can’t be an environmentalist and support immigration. Immigration increases demand and demand increases pollution, resource depletion and climate change among various other problems. Less babies means less cars. Use a rubber. Show girls your teeth. These are ideas to save the planet. 😎

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(edited)

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/prices-waste-wood-product-soaring-183637120.html

 

Prices for a waste-wood product are soaring as Russia's war in Ukraine upends supplies and stokes a US export surge

 
 
Brian Evans
Mon, August 8, 2022 at 1:36 PM
 
 
The US is filling a void for wood pellets because of Russia's war in Ukraine upending supplies.
 
Getty Images
  • Russia's war in Ukraine is pushing the US to fill a void for waste-wood exports.

  • Prices have soared as a result for pellets, which are used in Western Europe as a coal alternative.

  • US exports of waste-wood are outpacing 2021 metrics so far this year.

Russia's war in Ukraine has upended supplies of essential waste wood exports to Western Europe and the US is filling the void.

A report from the Wall Street Journal said that wood-pellets originating from Belarus, Russia, and Ukraine are being held up and pushing prices higher. As a result, US exports of waste wood have soared to $170 a ton compared to $140 at the same time last year. So far this year, the US has moved 7.4 million metric tons of pellets abroad.

 

Western Europe uses waste-wood for energy production instead of coal, as burning pellets counts toward emission targets in Europe.

And companies are reaping the benefits of the constraints on supplies. Shares of Enviva Inc., based in Maryland, have seen a return of 114% since shortly before the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, compare to the 42% gain for the S&P 500 in the same period.

And more supply is needed to make up for the loss stemming from the war in Ukraine. Roughly 3 million tonnes needs to be replaced. Enviva told the WSJ that the company signed a slate of new deals with German customers for five, 10 and 15 years. Natural gas and oil have also soared in Europe in response to the war and resulting supply constraints.

Burning wood pellets is no cleaner than using coal for energy, environmentalists say, when accounting for total emissions.

Not much less than the price of corn aka maize. 

US Maize Price is at a current level of 222.30, down from 231.13 last month and down from 270.39 one year ago. This is a change of -3.82% from last month and -17.79% from one year ago.
RCW
 
 
 
Edited by Ron Wagner
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(edited)

1 hour ago, Boat said:

You can’t get it right. Because you think right. You can’t be an environmentalist and support immigration. Immigration increases demand and demand increases pollution, resource depletion and climate change among various other problems. Less babies means less cars. Use a rubber. Show girls your teeth. These are ideas to save the planet. 😎

Boat long ago you had a life lesson, you stated your in your appointed station in life you were given the autonomy to write vouchers.

A very brief commentary here. Your thought process was always under review. You may well reflect on that for a moment.

Edited by Eyes Wide Open

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Is It Cost Effective To Make Corn Stalk Pellets?

 Home > Related Topics > FAQs >
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10 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Anyway back on topic

US Senate passes landmark $430bn climate change, tax and drug pricing bill to lower global warming emissions

https://news.sky.com/story/u-s-senate-passes-landmark-430bn-climate-change-tax-and-drug-pricing-bill-12668146

This bill apparently includes a lot of sections that add more taxes and other expense to producing and processing oil and other fuels. It also includes billions of dollars of subsidies for electric vehicles. Therefore the poor and lower middle class will not be able to afford as much fuel or to buy even the cheapest electric vehicle without greatly straining their budgets. The upper middle class and wealthy will benefit until their lithium batteries fail. Used ICE vehicles will be on the road much longer. The smartest investment might be in rebuilt auto parts or new parts for older vehicles. 

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39 minutes ago, Ron Wagner said:

The smartest investment might be in rebuilt auto parts or new parts for older vehicles. 

Ron that has been underway for more than 2yrs, used cars are now running at 4 times value. The young middle class is being starved out existence..With all of the currents events the US is in great peril right now. 

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The Demoncrats are all in on their evil missions. We will know more on November 8. 

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In the UK energy prices have rocketed and are nowhere near the top yet.

The average bill next year for NG and electric will be an estimated £4266 per household and these estimates keep rising dramatically.

With inflation seemingly out of control also, mortgage rates will be too high for the average person to pay back. Reposessions will be rife and families will literally be on the street.

In 2 years time it will be a lot worse and civil unrest will be the norm especially from the poor of which there will be a lot more. With great depressions usually come great wars.

Welcome to the new free world!

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8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

In the UK energy prices have rocketed and are nowhere near the top yet.

The average bill next year for NG and electric will be an estimated £4266 per household and these estimates keep rising dramatically.

With inflation seemingly out of control also, mortgage rates will be too high for the average person to pay back. Reposessions will be rife and families will literally be on the street.

In 2 years time it will be a lot worse and civil unrest will be the norm especially from the poor of which there will be a lot more. With great depressions usually come great wars.

Welcome to the new free world!

The drastic reduction in standard of living for the average person is caused by the energy revolution.

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(edited)

Something funny  has happened to the oil demand data.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Dodgy-Demand-Data-The-Oil-Price-Collapse-Conspiracy.html

"The collapse in oil prices has been so epic and unexpected that some oil pundits are now accusing the Biden administration of fabricating low gas demand data in a bid to hammer oil prices.

To wit, in late June the EIA shut down reporting for several weeks, ostensibly due to a server malfunction. But as ForexLive has pointed out,  gasoline demand data has been consistently bad ever since the EIA returned: "Maybe there's an issue with reporting or maybe it's a conspiracy", ForexLive has declared.

Even Wall Street has begun questioning the EIA data.

Bank of America energy strategist Doug Legate has published a note titled the "fall of gasoline demand appears grossly exaggerated.’’

"For the week ending July 22nd, implied gasoline demand rebounded to 9.2 million b/d - a 1 million b/d increase vs the last two week average, and the second highest level of 2022," BofA wrote in the note to clients. Curiously, the EIA reported a steep drop in gasoline demand shortly thereafter, prompting Piper Sandler global energy strategist to label the data "crooked", saying the methodology left “significant room for error”. 

“We are supposed to believe that in July, in the middle of driving season we are only using 8.6 million barrels per day. That would be down half a million barrels a day from May of this year; that would be below the Covid low of 2020,” Sandler noted. “So we ask all the refiners, we ask all the retailers, we ask everybody that reported earnings this season. Every single one of them tells you that their sales are not down materially from even pre-covid days. Some report record high sales,” he added.

Piper Sandler’s allegations are buttressed by U.S. refining giant Valero. Asked about falling gasoline demand at the company’s earnings call last week, CEO Gary Simmons had this to say:

"I can tell you, through our wholesale channel there is really no indication of any demand destruction... In June, we actually set sales records. We read a lot about demand destruction and mobility data showing in that range of 3% to 5% demand destruction. Again, we're not seeing it in our system.""

Edited by Ecocharger

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