GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

On 2/4/2023 at 6:49 PM, Polyphia said:

Still wrong--I was just replying to a portion of your original post. I know they are legal, and I never wrote anything about Biden & Co. or the windfall tax.

And out comes my 6 year-old nephew again--telling me to shut up is unbecoming and immature. If you used your problem-solving skills, you could have ended this already. Post that you were wrong, or.....just stop posting about this thread--either way, it will be over. Why don't you respond to notsonice's recent posts? They are much more interesting than the content in this thread.

If buybacks are legal and will remain legal then it is not necessary to raise the issue of something that happened 40 years ago, irrelevant to the discussion. I never asked you to belabor this pointless point, that was your own choice.

The current issue is the proposal to levy windfall profits taxes on oil, a mindless policy already pursued in Europe and attractive to the dead head liberals running the White House at the present time.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Polyphia + 82]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

If buybacks are legal and will remain legal then it is not necessary to raise the issue of something that happened 40 years ago, irrelevant to the discussion. I never asked you to belabor this pointless point, that was your own choice.

The current issue is the proposal to levy windfall profits taxes on oil, a mindless policy already pursued in Europe and attractive to the dead head liberals running the White House at the present time.

Wrong again--keep dragging out this scintillating conversation.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

On 2/3/2023 at 6:46 PM, notsonice said:

 

The unemployment rate in the United States is at 3.4%--the lowest rate since 1969...wow attaboy Sleepy Joe and Price of energy is crashing at the same time.....$2.50 gas coming to a station near you soon

 

Enjoy the read

Oil Prices Crash After Perky Jobs Data

By Julianne Geiger - Feb 03, 2023, 12:19 PM CST

Crude oil prices fell on Friday afternoon following reports of strong U.S. jobs data, with WTI crashing by more than 2.5% to $73.88

The U.S. January jobs report indicates that the jobs market is stronger than expected, with employers adding 517,000 in January. This compares to economists that had expected employers had added 185,000 jobs in January.

The unemployment rate in the United States is at 3.4%--the lowest rate since 1969, despite the round of tech layoffs.

 

The Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes are not slowing hiring as some would have expected, with fears lingering that this could still lead to a recession. Still, wage growth seemed to slow.

With the ever-looming recession still looming, traders were slow to respond to Friday’s job data. WTI rose $0.55 per barrel to $76.43 (+0.72%) following the report, while Brent rose $0.46 to $82.63 (+0.56%). But prices quickly took a turn for the worse, with WTI falling $2 per barrel by 1:13 pm ET to $73.88 (-2.64%) per barrel. Brent had fallen by nearly the same amount to $80.21 (-2.39%) per barrel.

Both the WTI and Brent benchmarks are set for a sharp weekly decline.

Both benchmarks have slumped about $7 per barrel so far this week, despite signs that China’s crude oil demand could be recovering and the EU’s ban on Russian crude oil product imports, which goes into effect this Sunday.

Oil prices had already fallen earlier in the week as the United States Energy Information Administration data showed major builds in crude oil and crude products inventories, OPEC stuck to its guns and decided there wouldn’t be any changes to its output strategies at this time, and the Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate—and promised to continue those increases.

Goldman Sachs reckon oil will hit $100 in Q2 of this year

Goldman Sachs Warns Of An Imminent Oil Supply Shortage

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-An-Imminent-Oil-Supply-Shortage.html

We'll see, theyre usually wrong though.

[notsonice + 1,243]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Goldman Sachs reckon oil will hit $100 in Q2 of this year

Goldman Sachs Warns Of An Imminent Oil Supply Shortage

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Goldman-Sachs-Warns-Of-An-Imminent-Oil-Supply-Shortage.html

We'll see, theyre usually wrong though.

Goldman Sachs called end of year brent 2022 at $130 in July of 2022...they were so far off the mark...they have outed themselves as one never to count for predicitons

and yes they are usually wrong....

My bet is they were long oil at over $100 through to 2024 and lost their shirts

Only thing keeping Brent at $80 and WTI at $75 is Sleepy Joes buy at $72 to refill the SPR

Sleepy Joe needs a million barrels a day to refill in one year.....which sets a real floor

without this big demand ....2023 worldwide demand is flat to plus 1 million BPD increase over 2022....not what I would call a driver to $100 brent in the 2nd quarter....China Recession in property has years to fix itself...Demand increases out of China in 2023??? good luck

Too many companies/countries trying to cash in on 2022 prices in 2023 .........and too much production coming on stream in 2023...

Lucky to see Brent even maintaining $80 ..$75 Brent is in the cards 50/50 chance for near term...50/50 for flat prices and slim chance for a move up by the end of this quarter

1st quarter already a real crash in prices.........a floor still has not even been made at $80 to have GS calling for $100???? what a joke

EV's ramping up in 2023/24 a real challenge against any new demand in Gasoline. long term

Time will tell....however time is not on the side of Oil

 

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

9 hours ago, Polyphia said:

Wrong again--keep dragging out this scintillating conversation.

You deserve the credit for dragging it out to forty years ago. Congratulations.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Goldman Sachs called end of year brent 2022 at $130 in July of 2022...they were so far off the mark...they have outed themselves as one never to count for predicitons

and yes they are usually wrong....

My bet is they were long oil at over $100 through to 2024 and lost their shirts

Only thing keeping Brent at $80 and WTI at $75 is Sleepy Joes buy at $72 to refill the SPR

Sleepy Joe needs a million barrels a day to refill in one year.....which sets a real floor

without this big demand ....2023 worldwide demand is flat to plus 1 million BPD increase over 2022....not what I would call a driver to $100 brent in the 2nd quarter....China Recession in property has years to fix itself...Demand increases out of China in 2023??? good luck

Too many companies/countries trying to cash in on 2022 prices in 2023 .........and too much production coming on stream in 2023...

Lucky to see Brent even maintaining $80 ..$75 Brent is in the cards 50/50 chance for near term...50/50 for flat prices and slim chance for a move up by the end of this quarter

1st quarter already a real crash in prices.........a floor still has not even been made at $80 to have GS calling for $100???? what a joke

EV's ramping up in 2023/24 a real challenge against any new demand in Gasoline. long term

Time will tell....however time is not on the side of Oil

 

 

 

The liberals are wrong all over the map on these issues. The economy is slowing by many measures, short term jobs is not the most forward indicator of growth. If growth continues and pulls out of the current slowdown, oil prices will be sustained in a rising trend.

Oil production will actually increase going forward, and oil majors have been increasing production, contrary to the complaints from Biden & Co.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-White-House-Is-Wrong-About-Oil-Major-Share-Buybacks.html

"A White House spokesperson has accused oil majors of plowing profits back into the pockets of executives instead of boosting production.

Oil majors have been boosting production while also buying back shares, with Chevron reporting record U.S. oil and natural gas production in 2022.

U.S. oil production rose last year to the second-highest level on record and stands a good chance of setting a new record high this year."

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

2 hours ago, notsonice said:

Goldman Sachs called end of year brent 2022 at $130 in July of 2022...they were so far off the mark...they have outed themselves as one never to count for predicitons

and yes they are usually wrong....

My bet is they were long oil at over $100 through to 2024 and lost their shirts

Only thing keeping Brent at $80 and WTI at $75 is Sleepy Joes buy at $72 to refill the SPR

Sleepy Joe needs a million barrels a day to refill in one year.....which sets a real floor

without this big demand ....2023 worldwide demand is flat to plus 1 million BPD increase over 2022....not what I would call a driver to $100 brent in the 2nd quarter....China Recession in property has years to fix itself...Demand increases out of China in 2023??? good luck

Too many companies/countries trying to cash in on 2022 prices in 2023 .........and too much production coming on stream in 2023...

Lucky to see Brent even maintaining $80 ..$75 Brent is in the cards 50/50 chance for near term...50/50 for flat prices and slim chance for a move up by the end of this quarter

1st quarter already a real crash in prices.........a floor still has not even been made at $80 to have GS calling for $100???? what a joke

EV's ramping up in 2023/24 a real challenge against any new demand in Gasoline. long term

Time will tell....however time is not on the side of Oil

 

 

 

Recession may just be setting in. Every market can get soft in a recession, although there is a base demand for oil and natural gas.

https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/JLKJK1ZP

"2023 US salary budgets are expected to increase by just 4%—roughly half the 2022 rate of inflation."

This means that real wages will decline, setting the stage for widespread recession.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Polyphia + 82]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

You deserve the credit for dragging it out to forty years ago. Congratulations.

Still wrong--let's see how long you can keep this long-dead conversation going. Past history indicates there is no end in sight.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

48 minutes ago, Polyphia said:

Still wrong--let's see how long you can keep this long-dead conversation going. Past history indicates there is no end in sight.

It generally takes at least 2 to have an argument, which is both of you pair.

Why not be the bigger person and just stop! The rest of us are losing the will to live now!

[notsonice + 1,243]

3 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

The liberals are wrong all over the map on these issues. The economy is slowing by many measures, short term jobs is not the most forward indicator of growth. If growth continues and pulls out of the current slowdown, oil prices will be sustained in a rising trend.

Oil production will actually increase going forward, and oil majors have been increasing production, contrary to the complaints from Biden & Co.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-The-White-House-Is-Wrong-About-Oil-Major-Share-Buybacks.html

"A White House spokesperson has accused oil majors of plowing profits back into the pockets of executives instead of boosting production.

Oil majors have been boosting production while also buying back shares, with Chevron reporting record U.S. oil and natural gas production in 2022.

U.S. oil production rose last year to the second-highest level on record and stands a good chance of setting a new record high this year."

 

oil production rose in the us last year....yes yet worldwide consumption is flat and inventories are making big jumps...pay attention

and prices are down....You must be a Trump U grad.....the School where idiots got a worthless piece of paper and they were taught nothing.

 

 

 The economy is slowing by many measures???? yet you post no facts as usual

Economy in the US is not slowing right now  past 2 quarters are showing nice growth......Hiring shows no signs of slowing at all

Industrial and commercial construction is off the charts...pay attention

You are just repeating what the losers in the GOP babble

 

until the Fed really starts sucking money out of the world economy......Good luck as they printed 6 trillion recently ...the are unable to grab it back

 

there is a reason that the economy keeps adding jobs.........The Fed is trying to cause a rise in unemployment and it is not working their way.

 

short term jobs??? you call over 2 years of monthly jobs growth short term????? lol

Enjoy Sleepy Joes job creating machine....it was funded by the Feds printing of 6 Trillion dollars in the great Quantitive Easing that started in 2019 (remember the job creating  machine did not exist under Trump in 2020...as he was unable to tell people to wear a mask.....what a mistake....and what an idiot)

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by notsonice

[notsonice + 1,243]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Recession may just be setting in. Every market can get soft in a recession, although there is a base demand for oil and natural gas.

https://www.ibm.com/downloads/cas/JLKJK1ZP

"2023 US salary budgets are expected to increase by just 4%—roughly half the 2022 rate of inflation."

This means that real wages will decline, setting the stage for widespread recession.

expected 2023 rate of inflation??? less than a few points ..........pay attention to the major commodities indexes

 

looks like a lot of deflationary pressures are building with the fall of commodity prices across the board since July 2022......enjoy the boom in the economy

The GOP idiots mumbling recession are ignoring the major Commodities indexs which all have falling since their July 2022 highs and the indexes are showing no signs of rising at all now

did you notice gasoline is under $3 ?????? more money in everyones pockets again......recent sales in stores are great

widespread recession....dude you are a sock puppet for the idiot leaders in the GOP

Roaring 20's 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

2 hours ago, Polyphia said:

Still wrong--let's see how long you can keep this long-dead conversation going. Past history indicates there is no end in sight.

There is no need to drag it out, you obviously were the one to go back forty years. That was the problem.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

33 minutes ago, notsonice said:

expected 2023 rate of inflation??? less than a few points ..........pay attention to the major commodities indexes

 

looks like a lot of deflationary pressures are building with the fall of commodity prices across the board since July 2022......enjoy the boom in the economy

The GOP idiots mumbling recession are ignoring the major Commodities indexs which all have falling since their July 2022 highs and the indexes are showing no signs of rising at all now

did you notice gasoline is under $3 ?????? more money in everyones pockets again......recent sales in stores are great

widespread recession....dude you are a sock puppet for the idiot leaders in the GOP

Roaring 20's 

 

Real incomes are falling, with that you get a recession. 

You ignored the information on that.

[notsonice + 1,243]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Real incomes are falling, with that you get a recession. 

You ignored the information on that.

 

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Real incomes are falling, with that you get a recession. 

You ignored the information on that.

and the cause of real incomes that fell in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2022......your pals in the Oil business in 2022...Putin is your boss not mine

so sad you think that Oil is not to blame for the inflation last year..

Sleepy Joe has shut Putin down with the SPR releases and commodities have dropped back to pre Putin and his Oil pals 2022 invasion.

Now Inflation is poof again.....

Enjoy the Biden Boom and real wage increases

 

and for you comrade

last 2 quarters............in the US..... increases in real wages for the past six months

 

PS your recession BS babble is just that babble.......like everything else you post here.....

 

 

Edited February 6, 2023 by notsonice

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

1 hour ago, notsonice said:

 

and the cause of real incomes that fell in the 1st and 2nd quarter of 2022......your pals in the Oil business in 2022...Putin is your boss not mine

so sad you think that Oil is not to blame for the inflation last year..

Sleepy Joe has shut Putin down with the SPR releases and commodities have dropped back to pre Putin and his Oil pals 2022 invasion.

Now Inflation is poof again.....

Enjoy the Biden Boom and real wage increases

 

and for you comrade

last 2 quarters............in the US..... increases in real wages for the past six months

 

PS your recession BS babble is just that babble.......like everything else you post here.....

 

 

Take a course in Economics before you babble.

Inflation measures are about more than oil. 

Declining real incomes spells recession. Again, take the that Econ 101 course.

Edited February 6, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Polyphia + 82]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Take a course in Economics before you babble.

Inflation measures are about more than oil. 

Declining real incomes spells recession. Again, take the that Econ 101 course.

A large chunk of inflation is due to the impacts (both direct and indirect) of the cost of fuel.

Real average hourly wages have increased (overall) for the last 6 months of 2022:  .06% (July), .02% (August). -.01% (September), -.01% (October), .03% (November), .04% (December).

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

1 hour ago, Polyphia said:

A large chunk of inflation is due to the impacts (both direct and indirect) of the cost of fuel.

Real average hourly wages have increased (overall) for the last 6 months of 2022:  .06% (July), .02% (August). -.01% (September), -.01% (October), .03% (November), .04% (December).

And real incomes will decline in 2023. So that means weak economy, weak consumer demand.

Bad timing for the Prez coming into the next election.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

Looks like China may come back into the oil markets, assuming that China avoids a major recession.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Will-OPEC-Abandon-Its-Output-Cuts-Amid-Soaring-Chinese-Demand.html

"IEA Director Birol: In case of a strong rebound in Chinese demand, OPEC+ may have to reconsider its output policy.

China’s reopening is putting upward pressure on global oil demand, and half of this year’s demand growth is set to come from the Chinese growth in consumption.

IEA: Russia’s oil revenues alone are estimated to have dropped by 30% – or by around $8 billion – year-on-year in January."

Edited February 7, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Polyphia + 82]

4 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

And real incomes will decline in 2023. 

According to...

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

2 minutes ago, Polyphia said:

According to...

Check my post above...you really are Sleepy.

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

42 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Problems will remain, your blurb here only addresses new additions, not the total picture.

You seem to have this same tunnel vision in all of your blurbs, Jay. Not helpful to understand the overall picture.

Here is an overall evaluation, and it highlights the crucial role of  natural gas.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0117

"During the cold and wind event of Christmas 2022, temperatures dropped to the low teens across most of Texas, and electricity demand surged to over 73,000 megawatts (MW)—near the wintertime record set in February 2021. (A megawatt can be consumed by roughly 200 homes in Texas during peak-demand hours.)

As the temperature fell and demand soared, 10,000 MW of thermal power plant capacity and 6,000 MW of renewable generating capacity was offline due to the conditions (Chart 2). Additionally, Texas natural gas production is estimated to have fallen by almost 20 percent on Dec. 23 from the week before, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance."

Edited February 7, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

36 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

Problems will remain, your blurb here only addresses new additions, not the total picture.

You seem to have this same tunnel vision in all of your blurbs, Jay. Not helpful to understand the overall picture.

Here is an overall evaluation, and it highlights the crucial role of  natural gas.

https://www.dallasfed.org/research/economics/2023/0117

"During the cold and wind event of Christmas 2022, temperatures dropped to the low teens across most of Texas, and electricity demand surged to over 73,000 megawatts (MW)—near the wintertime record set in February 2021. (A megawatt can be consumed by roughly 200 homes in Texas during peak-demand hours.)

As the temperature fell and demand soared, 10,000 MW of thermal power plant capacity and 6,000 MW of renewable generating capacity was offline due to the conditions (Chart 2). Additionally, Texas natural gas production is estimated to have fallen by almost 20 percent on Dec. 23 from the week before, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance."

Yes the crucial role of failing at a rate 60% higher than renewables.

"10,000 MW of thermal power plant capacity and 6,000 MW of renewable generating capacity was offline due to the conditions"

Edited February 7, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,446]

10 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Yes the crucial role of failing at a rate 60% higher than renewables.

"10,000 MW of thermal power plant capacity and 6,000 MW of renewable generating capacity was offline due to the conditions"

Failing due to renewables reliance...the same old story, Jay.

[Polyphia + 82]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

Failing due to renewables reliance...the same old story, Jay.

I think if you look at the amount of power capacity that was offline due to the conditions and how that compares to the proportion of electricity provided by each source, it is close to a wash--both types of power plants failed at about the same rate. 

And no, the failures were not due to renewables. The failures were due to the "upgrades" in the winterization being performative (dog and pony show). I believe a federal report indicated that the upgrades left the system in only a marginally better place compared to last winter. Some estimates indicated that truly protective winterization processes would have added about 5 to 10 dollars to each household's monthly electric bill.