notsonice + 1,255 DM June 15, 2023 (edited) Informed Comment China's Solar Power Installations Skyrocket by 36.6%, may install 100 Gigs of New Solar this Year Ann Arbor (Informed Comment) – In the first four months of 2023, China's solar power installations increased by an incredible 36.6 percent... . 3 weeks ago Coal......terminal decline one solar panel at a time Edited June 15, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 15, 2023 1 minute ago, notsonice said: HA HA HA and you once again post no facts...... try this one Bloomberg.com China Nearing Inflection Point for Solar Power and EVs Ahead of 2030 Target Nation's transition is nearing a crucial stage where fossil fuel use falls into long-term decline. 2 weeks ago Some people need eye glasses. Sad. Coal is ramping up. Faster than expected. Oil is soaring, Chinese oil imports are ramping up to an all-time high. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Boosts-Crude-Oil-Import-Quotas-By-20-From-Last-Year.html "China’s crude oil imports in 2023 have already broken all previous records. In April this year China’s imports hit 13.0 million barrels a day (mbd), the highest ever in its history and in May crude imports were the third-highest level on record." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 15, 2023 (edited) Coal oversupplied due to lack of demand...pay attention to China...... price of coal on the world markets is plumetting due to lack of demand............... highlights With lower industrial demand and less severe summers in China and ...."Power demand is much lesser than the domestic supply China recession plus surge in renewables....equals Coal in terminal decline in China Peak Coal happened in 2013/14...... the only hope for the losers who love coal is a one off dead cat bounce...... All downhill for Coal ....one solar panel at a time Prices suffer amid excess supply Following weak Asian demand for around 10 weeks now, thermal coal prices have fallen to levels not seen so far this year. Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed the FOB Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR at $60/mt June 5, an year-to-date low. Similarly, the Newcastle 5,500 kcal/kg NAR with 23% ash was assessed at $88/mt June 5, lowest so far this year. On the other hand, South African thermal coal prices continued to plummet as Europe-based end-users purchased alternative origins of supply, despite Richard's Bay coal being heavily discounted. Platts assessed the FOB Richards Bay 5,500 kcal/kg NAR at $89.15/mt June 5, down from $264.25/mt during the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, market participants in Europe have also been looking to tap the Asian market, particularly China, to resell their coal amid decent thermal coal stockpile at European ports and lower coal demand due to strong natural gas storage levels and renewable energy generation, S&P Global reported May 24. According to sources, Europe has overstocked about 20 million mt of coal but lower-than-expected winter demand due to less severe temperatures led to more stockpiles. "I think only for now the circumstances are such that sellers want to sell to China as it is the only big market which can absorb the volumes and that too without the hassles of going through tenders unlike other big markets like Japan, South Korea or Taiwan," an Indonesia-based trader said. Domestic China coal values dwindle Analysts at S&P Global said imported coal is under pressure amid weaker Chinese domestic coal price and buyers are not willing to lift their bids as they have ample stocks at power plants. With lower industrial demand and less severe summers in China, domestic coal prices have also taken a beating, raising competition with global seaborne coal. According to sources, domestic 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal was heard to have been priced at Yuan 750/mt-Yuan 780/mt levels ($105/mt-$110/mt), down from Yuan 850/mt-Yuan 880/mt levels two to three weeks ago. A similar grade coal from Russia Pacific would cost anywhere between $118-$120/mt currently. "Power demand is much lesser than the domestic supply. Moreover, because of imported coal, stockpiles at ports are also very high so even if domestic coal supply dwindles a bit, there are enough stocks to meet the near-term demand," an Indonesia-based miner said. Edited June 15, 2023 by notsonice Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
specinho + 470 June 15, 2023 55 minutes ago, notsonice said: “From a coal perspective, it has been a disaster,” said Andy Blumenfeld, an analyst who tracks the industry at McCloskey by OPIS. “The decline is happening faster than anyone anticipated.” Breaking news! Breaking news! Cutting tree trunks, burning them to form coal for things and replanting them have been enabling wood and coal burning to be called renewable energy... i. e. can be reproduced... 'o' '-' This method is in fact on a rising trend... e.g. a) green steel production Brazil ( eucalyptus --> coal --> steel mill --> replant eucalyptus), b) household winter energy from wood burning, c) coal station in Germany using reforestable, fast growing wood etc... UK, Australia, Europe coal plants closure in exchange of other places flourishing?...😯 🤔 The image attached shows that if parent crabs can not walk straight, baby crabs likely follow. To right the public, top government officers must be re-educated... 😯🤭 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 15, 2023 (edited) Demand for oil and natural gas and coal is ramping up to record levels, and that trend will intensify with the increasiing need for affordable and available energy sources. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Heatwaves-Are-Sending-Demand-For-Fossil-Fuels-Soaring.html "Heatwaves this summer are leading to increased reliance on oil, gas, and coal as countries struggle to meet peak energy demands. Europe and Asia are experiencing higher temperatures, posing risks of drought, environmental damage, and energy shortages. Despite renewable energy growth, countries like the UK and India are resorting to coal and gas due to the limitations of green energy infrastructure." Edited June 15, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 15, 2023 11 hours ago, notsonice said: Coal oversupplied due to lack of demand...pay attention to China...... price of coal on the world markets is plumetting due to lack of demand............... highlights With lower industrial demand and less severe summers in China and ...."Power demand is much lesser than the domestic supply China recession plus surge in renewables....equals Coal in terminal decline in China Peak Coal happened in 2013/14...... the only hope for the losers who love coal is a one off dead cat bounce...... All downhill for Coal ....one solar panel at a time Prices suffer amid excess supply Following weak Asian demand for around 10 weeks now, thermal coal prices have fallen to levels not seen so far this year. Platts, part of S&P Global, assessed the FOB Kalimantan 4,200 kcal/kg GAR at $60/mt June 5, an year-to-date low. Similarly, the Newcastle 5,500 kcal/kg NAR with 23% ash was assessed at $88/mt June 5, lowest so far this year. On the other hand, South African thermal coal prices continued to plummet as Europe-based end-users purchased alternative origins of supply, despite Richard's Bay coal being heavily discounted. Platts assessed the FOB Richards Bay 5,500 kcal/kg NAR at $89.15/mt June 5, down from $264.25/mt during the same period a year ago. Meanwhile, market participants in Europe have also been looking to tap the Asian market, particularly China, to resell their coal amid decent thermal coal stockpile at European ports and lower coal demand due to strong natural gas storage levels and renewable energy generation, S&P Global reported May 24. According to sources, Europe has overstocked about 20 million mt of coal but lower-than-expected winter demand due to less severe temperatures led to more stockpiles. "I think only for now the circumstances are such that sellers want to sell to China as it is the only big market which can absorb the volumes and that too without the hassles of going through tenders unlike other big markets like Japan, South Korea or Taiwan," an Indonesia-based trader said. Domestic China coal values dwindle Analysts at S&P Global said imported coal is under pressure amid weaker Chinese domestic coal price and buyers are not willing to lift their bids as they have ample stocks at power plants. With lower industrial demand and less severe summers in China, domestic coal prices have also taken a beating, raising competition with global seaborne coal. According to sources, domestic 5,500 kcal/kg NAR coal was heard to have been priced at Yuan 750/mt-Yuan 780/mt levels ($105/mt-$110/mt), down from Yuan 850/mt-Yuan 880/mt levels two to three weeks ago. A similar grade coal from Russia Pacific would cost anywhere between $118-$120/mt currently. "Power demand is much lesser than the domestic supply. Moreover, because of imported coal, stockpiles at ports are also very high so even if domestic coal supply dwindles a bit, there are enough stocks to meet the near-term demand," an Indonesia-based miner said. Coal is still king. Coal is ramping up. Faster than expected. Oil is soaring, Chinese oil imports are ramping up to an all-time high. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Boosts-Crude-Oil-Import-Quotas-By-20-From-Last-Year.html "China’s crude oil imports in 2023 have already broken all previous records. In April this year China’s imports hit 13.0 million barrels a day (mbd), the highest ever in its history and in May crude imports were the third-highest level on record." Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 June 15, 2023 (edited) 43 minutes ago, Ecocharger said: Coal is still king. Coal is ramping up. Faster than expected. Oil is soaring, Chinese oil imports are ramping up to an all-time high. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/China-Boosts-Crude-Oil-Import-Quotas-By-20-From-Last-Year.html "China’s crude oil imports in 2023 have already broken all previous records. In April this year China’s imports hit 13.0 million barrels a day (mbd), the highest ever in its history and in May crude imports were the third-highest level on record." It would seem China paid close attention to the EU power debacle, interesting selling green technology to the western world while at the same time there own top power generation would be coal and nuclear..Imagine that. China building 24 nuclear power units, ranking No.1 in world: industry report Since 2022, China has approved 10 new nuclear power units, put three new commercial units into operation and started construction on six new units, read a report titled China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2023 released by the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA).China now has 54 commercial nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 56.82 million kW, ranking third in the world, the report said, noting that China's nuclear power units have maintained safe and stable operation for a long time, and the construction of new units has steadily advanced. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289882.shtml#:~:text=In 2022%2C China's nuclear power,the world%2C the report revealed. Edited June 15, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 16, 2023 (edited) Some rationality is coming back into the investment markets, the wild climate panic created by the Green activists is now fading. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Is-The-ESG-Investing-Boom-Already-Over.html "After peaking at $17.1 trillion in 2020, ESG assets in the United States dropped sharply to just $8.4 trillion in 2022. Oil and gas companies are pushing back against activist proposals in their boardrooms. Last week, CEO Darren Woods urged regulators to stop focusing on certain energy sources." Edited June 16, 2023 by Ecocharger 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 16, 2023 On 6/15/2023 at 1:31 AM, specinho said: Breaking news! Breaking news! Cutting tree trunks, burning them to form coal for things and replanting them have been enabling wood and coal burning to be called renewable energy... i. e. can be reproduced... 'o' '-' This method is in fact on a rising trend... e.g. a) green steel production Brazil ( eucalyptus --> coal --> steel mill --> replant eucalyptus), b) household winter energy from wood burning, c) coal station in Germany using reforestable, fast growing wood etc... UK, Australia, Europe coal plants closure in exchange of other places flourishing?...😯 🤔 The image attached shows that if parent crabs can not walk straight, baby crabs likely follow. To right the public, top government officers must be re-educated... 😯🤭 coal burning to be called renewable energy???? Keep posting stupid comments....it defines you 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 16, 2023 On 6/15/2023 at 1:31 AM, specinho said: Breaking news! Breaking news! Cutting tree trunks, burning them to form coal for things and replanting them have been enabling wood and coal burning to be called renewable energy... i. e. can be reproduced... 'o' '-' This method is in fact on a rising trend... e.g. a) green steel production Brazil ( eucalyptus --> coal --> steel mill --> replant eucalyptus), b) household winter energy from wood burning, c) coal station in Germany using reforestable, fast growing wood etc... UK, Australia, Europe coal plants closure in exchange of other places flourishing?...😯 🤔 The image attached shows that if parent crabs can not walk straight, baby crabs likely follow. To right the public, top government officers must be re-educated... 😯🤭 coal burning to be called renewable energy???? Keep posting stupid comments....it defines you Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP June 16, 2023 14 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Despite renewable energy growth, countries like the UK and India are resorting to coal and gas due to the limitations of green energy infrastructure." India maybe, UK with coal nah! The UK doesnt have the infrastructure anymore with coal to do this even if they wanted to. There are 2 active coal fired power stations left operational with a combined capacity of 2.52GW, the UK on average used 29.6GW daily Gas is already the dominant form of powergen in the UK 11.93GW last year or 40.2% thats why our energy bills went through the roof with the Ukraine war and the short term shortage and panic that followed. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_active_coal-fired_power_stations_in_the_United_Kingdom#References Over the last 12 months the UK on average has generated 350MW per day or 1.2% from coal of the UK's powergen needs. That is an indisputable fact. Renewables on the other hand on average have generated 10.4GW or 35.2% of the UK's powergen needs. NG still is the predominant powergen for the UK. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 16, 2023 (edited) Coal is toast....China Boom ended a few years ago please note when stockpiles are building up it is a sign that demand is falling down Chinas coal power plants are reducing output at the same time renewables are increasing...... headlines on China in the past few days Nasdaq Coal stocks at China power plants hit record high 187 mln metric tons Coal stocks at Chinese power plants have reached record high levels, a spokesperson for national planner the National Development and Reform... . 6 hours ago Reuters China's May daily coal output dips on high stocks, weak demand China's daily coal output fell in May from April, data showed on Thursday, as miners lowered production to ease inventory pressure amid... . 1 day ago Business Insider China's economy is imploding. That's a problem for US, Wall Street. Wall Street's dream of a big Chinese boom, post-COVID reopening, has officially gone bust. . 1 day ago Financial Times Chinese economic data fuels gloom over recovery China's central bank has cut its main policy rate for the first time in 10 months as new data reinforced concerns over a stalling post-Covid... . 1 day ago Bloomberg.com China Holds Urgent Meetings on Economy With Business Leaders Senior Chinese officials are soliciting advice from business leaders and economists on how to revitalize the economy in a flurry of meetings... . 1 day ago CNN China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam China's central bank on Tuesday made a surprise cut to one of its key lending rates in a bid to shore up sputtering growth in the world's... . 2 days ago Reuters China cuts medium-term lending rates as economy sputters China's central bank cut the borrowing cost of its medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, in line with... . 8 hours ago Edited June 16, 2023 by notsonice 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rob Plant + 2,756 RP June 16, 2023 (edited) 13 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said: It would seem China paid close attention to the EU power debacle, interesting selling green technology to the western world while at the same time there own top power generation would be coal and nuclear..Imagine that. China building 24 nuclear power units, ranking No.1 in world: industry report Since 2022, China has approved 10 new nuclear power units, put three new commercial units into operation and started construction on six new units, read a report titled China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2023 released by the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA).China now has 54 commercial nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 56.82 million kW, ranking third in the world, the report said, noting that China's nuclear power units have maintained safe and stable operation for a long time, and the construction of new units has steadily advanced. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289882.shtml#:~:text=In 2022%2C China's nuclear power,the world%2C the report revealed. EWO China's nuclear made up only 5% of their powergen in 2022 the exact same as solar, 4% less than wind and 14% less than hydro. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1235176/china-distribution-of-electricity-production-by-source/ Edited June 16, 2023 by Rob Plant 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 16, 2023 (edited) 8 hours ago, notsonice said: Coal is toast....China Boom ended a few years ago please note when stockpiles are building up it is a sign that demand is falling down Chinas coal power plants are reducing output at the same time renewables are increasing...... headlines on China in the past few days Nasdaq Coal stocks at China power plants hit record high 187 mln metric tons Coal stocks at Chinese power plants have reached record high levels, a spokesperson for national planner the National Development and Reform... . 6 hours ago Reuters China's May daily coal output dips on high stocks, weak demand China's daily coal output fell in May from April, data showed on Thursday, as miners lowered production to ease inventory pressure amid... . 1 day ago Business Insider China's economy is imploding. That's a problem for US, Wall Street. Wall Street's dream of a big Chinese boom, post-COVID reopening, has officially gone bust. . 1 day ago Financial Times Chinese economic data fuels gloom over recovery China's central bank has cut its main policy rate for the first time in 10 months as new data reinforced concerns over a stalling post-Covid... . 1 day ago Bloomberg.com China Holds Urgent Meetings on Economy With Business Leaders Senior Chinese officials are soliciting advice from business leaders and economists on how to revitalize the economy in a flurry of meetings... . 1 day ago CNN China makes surprise rate cut as economic recovery loses steam China's central bank on Tuesday made a surprise cut to one of its key lending rates in a bid to shore up sputtering growth in the world's... . 2 days ago Reuters China cuts medium-term lending rates as economy sputters China's central bank cut the borrowing cost of its medium-term policy loans for the first time in 10 months on Thursday, in line with... . 8 hours ago Your analysis, as usual, is nonsense. Chinese demand for coal has increased this year. Chinese coal imports have soared 89% this quarter, and steel demand has declined, therefore temporary demand for steel manufacture coking coal. Total Chinese demand for coal has actually increased, just not as fast as the supply increase. Short-term blips on the trail. https://energyandcleanair.org/record-rise-in-chinas-coal-production-and-imports/ "In the first four months of the year, China’s coal imports increased no less than 89% year-on-year. The increase continued in April with a 73% increase year-on-year. This seems paradoxical because domestic coal supply has increased sharply recently, growing 10.5% in 2022 and 5.5% in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, total coal consumption increased by 4.3% in 2022 and 3.6% in the first quarter of 2023. Thermal power generation, the main user of imported coal, increased 1.4% year-on-year in 2022 and 1.7% in the first quarter of 2023. Various explanations have been offered: increase in coal consumption, resumption of imports from Australia, resumption of exports from Indonesia and restocking demand. We will use data to examine each one of these factors. As noted above, coal consumption and thermal power generation did increase in the first quarter of 2023. However, total seaborne coal deliveries, including deliveries of both domestic and imported coal, increased 7%, according to shipment tracking data from Kpler. This indicates increased demand, but cannot account for the brunt of the 89% increase in imports." Edited June 16, 2023 by Ecocharger Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 June 16, 2023 3 hours ago, Ecocharger said: Your analysis, as usual, is nonsense. Chinese demand for coal has increased this year. Chinese coal imports have soared 89% this quarter, and steel demand has declined, therefore temporary demand for steel manufacture coking coal. Total Chinese demand for coal has actually increased, just not as fast as the supply increase. Short-term blips on the trail. https://energyandcleanair.org/record-rise-in-chinas-coal-production-and-imports/ "In the first four months of the year, China’s coal imports increased no less than 89% year-on-year. The increase continued in April with a 73% increase year-on-year. This seems paradoxical because domestic coal supply has increased sharply recently, growing 10.5% in 2022 and 5.5% in the first quarter of 2023. At the same time, total coal consumption increased by 4.3% in 2022 and 3.6% in the first quarter of 2023. Thermal power generation, the main user of imported coal, increased 1.4% year-on-year in 2022 and 1.7% in the first quarter of 2023. Various explanations have been offered: increase in coal consumption, resumption of imports from Australia, resumption of exports from Indonesia and restocking demand. We will use data to examine each one of these factors. As noted above, coal consumption and thermal power generation did increase in the first quarter of 2023. However, total seaborne coal deliveries, including deliveries of both domestic and imported coal, increased 7%, according to shipment tracking data from Kpler. This indicates increased demand, but cannot account for the brunt of the 89% increase in imports." The more China (and others) increase output from renewable sources, the less coal will be consumed. Watch what happens... 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190 June 16, 2023 9 minutes ago, turbguy said: The more China (and others) increase output from renewable sources, the less coal will be consumed. Watch what happens... The question is if any of those "other sources" are actually installed and producing power enabling coal to be turned off. Unless you have NG, the coal is not going to be turned off. Unless you have equivalent in pumped hydro storage the coal is not going to be turned off. All you have is excess power potential whenever the sun shines and the wind blows and zero infrastructure can be turned on and off whenever the sun shines and the wind blows. Solar is more useful than wind by and large as it is fairly well predictable and meets daily maximums in power... so in actuality, solar does not displace coal, it can displace NG. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 June 17, 2023 (edited) On 6/16/2023 at 2:49 PM, footeab@yahoo.com said: The question is if any of those "other sources" are actually installed and producing power enabling coal to be turned off. Unless you have NG, the coal is not going to be turned off. Unless you have equivalent in pumped hydro storage the coal is not going to be turned off. All you have is excess power potential whenever the sun shines and the wind blows and zero infrastructure can be turned on and off whenever the sun shines and the wind blows. Solar is more useful than wind by and large as it is fairly well predictable and meets daily maximums in power... so in actuality, solar does not displace coal, it can displace NG. "Turned off"? Not exactly... There are these things in Coal Fired steam plants known as "valves". You can use them to throttle the flow of the cycle working fluid through the heat engine. Less fluid flow, less work available from the heat engine (lower power generation). Less fluid flow, lower heat input required into the furnace. Lower heat input, less coal flow pushed into the firebox. Simple, no? Edited June 18, 2023 by turbguy 2 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190 June 18, 2023 2 hours ago, turbguy said: "Turned off"? Not exactly... There are these things in Coal Fired steam plants known as "valves". You can use them to throttle the flow of the cycle working fluid through the heat engine. Less fluid flow, less work available from the heat engine (lower power generation). Less fluid flow, lower heat input required into the furnace. Lower heat input, less coal flow pushed into the firebox. Simple, no? Wow Valves, oh please do tell me more! Does the efficiency remain the same or do you just dump it all out the smoke stack? Oh please tell me, tell me! Oh please your majesty please do tell! No where else on earth where government mandates are not present has coal been throttled while pretending that wind/solar are providing the power when in reality it is just being dumped while coal is still running... The only difference is whose bank accounts get the money for "making the power"... Coal runs on time lines like Nuclear other than it needs cleaning regularly stopping the generation. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
specinho + 470 June 18, 2023 On 6/16/2023 at 4:12 PM, notsonice said: coal burning to be called renewable energy???? Keep posting stupid comments....it defines you Thank you. We have to be stupid, or assumed to be one, before we become or are regarded as wise.🤭😉 Your mind is closed. Renewable is defined as energy that can be reproduced again and again, for example wood. Those jokers have overcome the fear of sulphuric acid or such from wood burning... Or have methods to make it clean and safe. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,544 June 18, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said: Wow Valves, oh please do tell me more! Does the efficiency remain the same or do you just dump it all out the smoke stack? Oh please tell me, tell me! Oh please your majesty please do tell! No where else on earth where government mandates are not present has coal been throttled while pretending that wind/solar are providing the power when in reality it is just being dumped while coal is still running... The only difference is whose bank accounts get the money for "making the power"... Coal runs on time lines like Nuclear other than it needs cleaning regularly stopping the generation. Here's some evidence shown below. Do you think coal plants get "turned on and off", or are they load-cycled to match the demand unmet by other sources? Typically, thermal efficiency suffers if a fossil generating plant isn't operating "pedal to the metal". It's hard to compete in a market if you have to buy and transport fuel, collect and dispose of operational wastes, move and use prodigious amount of water, when your competitors have figured out a way around all of that expense. And those competitors use less heads per MWh to boot! Yes, coal (and all other sources) are load-cycled. The only source that "flat lines" is nuc. Edited June 18, 2023 by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
notsonice + 1,255 DM June 19, 2023 Coal and Oil....terminal decline... Peak Coal and Peak oil already happened..... China is in a bad bad deep recession which will last for years until they can figure out what to do with 65 million empty apartments. The only bright spot in China is the building of Solar and Wind Farms and Pumped storage and Nuclear.....No need for more coal.......Coal prices are crashing fast with the lack of demand....Oil prices.....$70 Brent by August 1 Enjoy the transition to renewables and EVs Wall Street Turns Bearish As China's Economic Recovery Stalls By Alex Kimani - Jun 18, 2023, 6:00 PM CDT Despite relaxed Covid-19 measures, China's economic recovery has been less impressive than anticipated, with a weak industrial recovery and lower-than-expected demand for oil impacting global prices. Beijing is considering a package of stimulus measures to boost the economy, with Wall Street responding with growing bearishness about the oil price outlook due to increased supply and recession fears. The oil markets are experiencing significant volatility as they balance bullish and bearish factors, including higher U.S. crude production and the potential resumption of oil exports from Iran.in Our Community Last December, Beijing announced the most sweeping changes to its strict Covid-19 guidelines, including relaxing testing requirements and travel restrictions. As the world’s largest importer of crude, most commodity experts were optimistic that the country's economy would recover quickly and give a healthy boost to oil demand, with some even touting a swift return to $100 oil. Unfortunately, China’s recovery has been less than impressive, and the initial excitement in the oil markets has been tamped down by a harsher reality. China’s industrial recovery has not been up to par and has fared worse than consumer-facing sectors. The transport sector has also been unimpressive with trucking activity failing to pick up as expected. Jet fuel demand has been disappointing with international flights from China only at 39% of pre-pandemic levels. Immediately after the Covid rules were relaxed, Chinese refiners went on a crude oil buying spree betting on a quick return to downstream demand. But that has failed to materialize leading to onshore inventories climbing to a two-year high. The current economic outlook is not good, either. Bloomberg has reported that China’s credit demand weakened in May as the economy’s recovery lost steam. Aggregate financing fell to 1.6 trillion yuan ($224 billion) in May, considerably lower than the median estimate of 1.9 trillion yuan. Aggregate financing, a broad measure of credit, was 1.6 trillion yuan ($224 billion) in May, the People’s Bank of China said Tuesday, lower than the median estimate of 1.9 trillion yuan. Other economic data points also point to a slowing economy: inflation remained close to zero, exports contracted for the first time in three months, manufacturing activity also contracted and a rebound in home sales slowed. Meanwhile, private investment in the first four months of the year came to a halt despite a rapid expansion in money supply. Beijing is now considering deploying a broad package of stimulus measures in a bid to boost the economy. Last week, PBOC Governor Yi Gang hinted at more flexibility in monetary policy, including “counter-cyclical adjustments” that will support the economy, with some analysts saying this signals more easing. Wall Street Growing Bearish On Oil Whether these measures will work as intended and help boost the sputtering economy remains to be seen. Unfortunately, Wall Street is growing increasingly bearish about the oil price outlook. Last week, Goldman Sachs' oil ultrabull Jeff Currie once again lowered his Brent forecast for December, this time to $86 a barrel from $95 and $100 before that. Currie cited increasing supply from Russia, Iran and Venezuela; growing recession fears and persistent headwinds to higher prices from higher interest rates for his growing bearishness. Analysts at Citi are also quite bearish, recently saying the Saudi cuts are unlikely to sustain a gain into the high $80s or low $90s thanks to lackluster demand and stronger non-OPEC supply by year-end. However, the oil markets have received some reprieve after the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate hikes. At 9:50 a.m. EST, WTI was trading up 1.2% at $69.34, for a $1.02 gain on the day while Brent crude was trading up 1.57% at $74.36, for a $1.16 gain on the day. The gains have been rather muted after the Fed signaled another half percentage point increase in interest rates by the end of this year. China’s disappointing economic outlook is also giving the bulls a pause. Overall, oil markets have become highly volatile in the current week as traders try to make sense of a mix of both bullish and bearish drivers. Oil prices rallied mid-week after the latest EIA report showed crude refining has hit the highest level since August 2019 in anticipation of strong summer demand. However, the same report revealed that U.S. crude production has hit the highest levels since April 2020 while crude exports have declined. However, crude oil inventories at the WTI pricing hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, rose for the seventh consecutive week and are currently close to the five-year average. The w/w crude oil balance shows unusually large swings in exports and imports. However, the most bearish piece of news came outside the U.S. market with reports that Iran might soon officially resume oil exports with nuclear talks with the U.S. progressing at a faster-than-expected clip. "Oil prices are caught in a clash between two opposing forces, bearish asset allocators who point to monetary contraction and bullish oil speculators expecting lower inventories in 2H23. The bearish allocators will maintain the upper hand for now, as oil prices struggle to rally until the Fed eases money supply," Bank of America Global Research's Francisco Blanch said in a note. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,324 RG June 19, 2023 On 6/15/2023 at 2:02 PM, Eyes Wide Open said: It would seem China paid close attention to the EU power debacle, interesting selling green technology to the western world while at the same time there own top power generation would be coal and nuclear..Imagine that. China building 24 nuclear power units, ranking No.1 in world: industry report Since 2022, China has approved 10 new nuclear power units, put three new commercial units into operation and started construction on six new units, read a report titled China Nuclear Energy Development Report 2023 released by the China Nuclear Energy Association (CNEA).China now has 54 commercial nuclear power units with a total installed capacity of 56.82 million kW, ranking third in the world, the report said, noting that China's nuclear power units have maintained safe and stable operation for a long time, and the construction of new units has steadily advanced. https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202304/1289882.shtml#:~:text=In 2022%2C China's nuclear power,the world%2C the report revealed. China is not only the worlds top solar producer but is #1 in installed solar. Add the nukes to the equation and you can deduct why we think there is little future for coal over time. A few of us knew of this trend for over a decade. Others, we’ll let’s face it, are not Sherlock Holmes. Al Gore tried to wake you 30 years ago. You hated Al for that. But he was right and now your seeing the electric transion swing into reality. It’s still early days but momention to scale is undeniable. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,324 RG June 19, 2023 On 6/9/2023 at 8:08 PM, Ron Wagner said: There are still twice as many natural gas vehicles on the road and they are larger. This fact is not made public in the mass media. It does not fit their game plan. Not know? A few years ago we discussed nat gas trash trucks and electric busses. This is not new news. Even electric vans from Amazon is not a new thing anymore. Nat gas the largest electricity producer in the world and growing. Because of the intense infrastructure that it takes it can only grow so fast. Just like renewables. The infrastructure can only grow so fast. All of it is labor intensive. Your wrong and always have been about oil and gas not being left.Buffet owns billions in Fossile Fuel industry as does Bloomberg and even George Soros. They are not green. They don’t talk about the health of babies, grandparents like I do. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 19, 2023 On 6/16/2023 at 4:34 PM, turbguy said: The more China (and others) increase output from renewable sources, the less coal will be consumed. Watch what happens... You are dodging the point above, which is that Chinese demand for coal has increased, contrary to the inane squawking from the Green goblin above. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ecocharger + 1,474 DL June 19, 2023 13 hours ago, turbguy said: Here's some evidence shown below. Do you think coal plants get "turned on and off", or are they load-cycled to match the demand unmet by other sources? Typically, thermal efficiency suffers if a fossil generating plant isn't operating "pedal to the metal". It's hard to compete in a market if you have to buy and transport fuel, collect and dispose of operational wastes, move and use prodigious amount of water, when your competitors have figured out a way around all of that expense. And those competitors use less heads per MWh to boot! Yes, coal (and all other sources) are load-cycled. The only source that "flat lines" is nuc. Again you are dodging the point, which is that Chinese demand for coal has increased, contrary to the off-topic irrelevancies you are emitting. That is intellectual pollution. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
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