GREEN NEW DEAL = BLIZZARD OF LIES

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

6 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

No, Jay, the study shows that it is caused by the run-up in materials prices caused by the EV expansion.

Then how did Tesla make such a huge profit? 

No doubt the higher cost of inputs drove up the legacy automaker costs but the the point is that Tesla is so much more efficient at building EVs that they were able to turn a record profit under the same conditions. That is disruption!!

Edited July 27, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

8 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Then how did Tesla make such a huge profit? 

No doubt the higher cost of inputs drove up the legacy automaker costs but the the point is that Tesla is so much more efficient at building EVs that they were able to turn a record profit under the same conditions. That is disruption!!

I have not seen Tesla's books or accounting systems. How could I answer that?

Edited July 27, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

The EV industry is now facing a choking point for supplies, which could be a permanent drag and barrier to growth.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Battery-Conundrum-Commodity-Rally-Could-Reverse-Cost-Curve.html

There will be a "perpetual deficit" in supplies leading to a rapid increase in prices through this decade at least.

"In the longer term, we believe the lithium market is likely to be in a perpetual deficit,” Macquarie said.“As a result lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, moving to an incentive price by 2024.“Some new supply additions should temporarily lighten the market in 2026, however beyond 2027 the supply deficit should widen significantly.”Macquarie said this year’s deficit would be a modest 2900t, rising to 20,200t next year and then up 61,000t in 2023.Credit Suisse’s deficit estimate closely follow those of Macquarie’s, but it stretched its forecasts out into 2024 and 2025, when the lithium deficit is forecast to be 117,000t and 248,000t, respectively."

Edited July 27, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

15 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

I have not seen Tesla's books or accounting systems. How could I answer that?

But of course, you would need to do a full audit of Tesla's books but some article headline claiming dramatic costs for Japanese automakers causing huge losses and you believe it 100%.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

22 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

The EV industry is now facing a choking point for supplies, which could be a permanent drag and barrier to growth.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/The-EV-Battery-Conundrum-Commodity-Rally-Could-Reverse-Cost-Curve.html

There will be a "perpetual deficit" in supplies leading to a rapid increase in prices through this decade at least.

"In the longer term, we believe the lithium market is likely to be in a perpetual deficit,” Macquarie said.“As a result lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, moving to an incentive price by 2024.“Some new supply additions should temporarily lighten the market in 2026, however beyond 2027 the supply deficit should widen significantly.”Macquarie said this year’s deficit would be a modest 2900t, rising to 20,200t next year and then up 61,000t in 2023.Credit Suisse’s deficit estimate closely follow those of Macquarie’s, but it stretched its forecasts out into 2024 and 2025, when the lithium deficit is forecast to be 117,000t and 248,000t, respectively."

More of those multi year projections that you are always claiming to be invalid.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

16 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

But of course, you would need to do a full audit of Tesla's books but some article headline claiming dramatic costs for Japanese automakers causing huge losses and you believe it 100%.

It was straight from top. Do I trust such statements from the top Japanese car makers? Yes.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

10 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

More of those multi year projections that you are always claiming to be invalid.

These are cogently argued with actual real numbers.

"In the longer term, we believe the lithium market is likely to be in a perpetual deficit,” Macquarie said.“As a result lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, moving to an incentive price by 2024.“Some new supply additions should temporarily lighten the market in 2026, however beyond 2027 the supply deficit should widen significantly.”Macquarie said this year’s deficit would be a modest 2900t, rising to 20,200t next year and then up 61,000t in 2023.Credit Suisse’s deficit estimate closely follow those of Macquarie’s, but it stretched its forecasts out into 2024 and 2025, when the lithium deficit is forecast to be 117,000t and 248,000t, respectively."

 

Edited July 27, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

15 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

It was straight from top. Do I trust such statements from the top Japanese car makers? Yes.

Of course you do, they are telling you what you want to hear. 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

18 minutes ago, Ecocharger said:

These are cogently argued with actual real numbers.

"In the longer term, we believe the lithium market is likely to be in a perpetual deficit,” Macquarie said.“As a result lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, moving to an incentive price by 2024.“Some new supply additions should temporarily lighten the market in 2026, however beyond 2027 the supply deficit should widen significantly.”Macquarie said this year’s deficit would be a modest 2900t, rising to 20,200t next year and then up 61,000t in 2023.Credit Suisse’s deficit estimate closely follow those of Macquarie’s, but it stretched its forecasts out into 2024 and 2025, when the lithium deficit is forecast to be 117,000t and 248,000t, respectively."

 

Actual real numbers from the future! HaHaHa That's funny.

Edited July 27, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

12 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Oh come on Rob, you just acknowledged how much better it is in your every day life not to breath diesel fumes. Fossil fumes are a problem worldwide. When was the last time you saw or were affected by REE mining pollution? One vastly outweighs the other, can you tell me which one?

Jay it absolutely is and just to confirm where I stand in the whole renewables and EV debate.

I dont believe Co2 is the problem and I dont believe that climate change is caused by this.

However I do want a world without pollution and clean air to breathe that will save many lives and stop many respiratory problems. Ev's and renewables help to serve this purpose so I'm in favour but I do believe there is a place for clean FF powergen as well and there is a place for FF and a good "mix" of powergen sources. The REE mining is an issue that cant be ignored but hopefully we see a breakthrough in battery technology in the next 5 years that negates the need for these. The other issue is recycling wind towers/blades.

What is absolutely without question is all the investment is in renewables and not oil + gas, even major oil companies are rebranding to "energy" such as Equinor from Statoil and these companies have invested into renewables themselves https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/floating-wind.html. Most European oil + gas supply change companies have diversified into renewables, its diversify or die! Also what cannot be denied is that pretty much every major car manufacturer is going EV / hybrid, those that say otherwise are frankly in cloud cuckoo land. The numbers don't lie but even more you just have to look at the latest models out there now and those being worked on to see the EV revolution is here to stay and as battery technology improves so will EV's and so will the cost of ownership which is the key factor in this. Tesla have had it mostly all their own way but with all the major players now in the market competition between them will help drive prices down. Watch out for Chinese EV's being exported as they are super cheap!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

26 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Jay it absolutely is and just to confirm where I stand in the whole renewables and EV debate.

I dont believe Co2 is the problem and I dont believe that climate change is caused by this.

However I do want a world without pollution and clean air to breathe that will save many lives and stop many respiratory problems. Ev's and renewables help to serve this purpose so I'm in favour but I do believe there is a place for clean FF powergen as well and there is a place for FF and a good "mix" of powergen sources. The REE mining is an issue that cant be ignored but hopefully we see a breakthrough in battery technology in the next 5 years that negates the need for these. The other issue is recycling wind towers/blades.

What is absolutely without question is all the investment is in renewables and not oil + gas, even major oil companies are rebranding to "energy" such as Equinor from Statoil and these companies have invested into renewables themselves https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/floating-wind.html. Most European oil + gas supply change companies have diversified into renewables, its diversify or die! Also what cannot be denied is that pretty much every major car manufacturer is going EV / hybrid, those that say otherwise are frankly in cloud cuckoo land. The numbers don't lie but even more you just have to look at the latest models out there now and those being worked on to see the EV revolution is here to stay and as battery technology improves so will EV's and so will the cost of ownership which is the key factor in this. Tesla have had it mostly all their own way but with all the major players now in the market competition between them will help drive prices down. Watch out for Chinese EV's being exported as they are super cheap!

 REE isn't used in batteries. Their use in renewables is as permanent magnets in the more efficient motor/generator designs. Otherwise they are mainly used in all the electronics we use. If you are referring to Cobalt then you are in luck because all those cheap Chinese EV's will be using LFP without cobalt.  

I absolutely agree about the China EVs. I've been looking into them and a lot of them are stunning for the price! My favorite is BYD (part owned by Warren Buffet) with their new Blade Battery.

But the Ora Punk Cat is perhaps the coolest looking. What is going to be funny is I think it will outsell VWs new EVs in China.

Edited July 27, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

15 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

 REE isn't used in batteries. Their use in renewables is as permanent magnets in the more efficient motor/generator designs. Otherwise they are mainly used in all the electronics we use. If you are referring to Cobalt then you are in luck because all those cheap Chinese EV's will be using LFP without cobalt.  

I absolutely agree about the China EVs. I've been looking into them and a lot of them are stunning for the price! My favorite is BYD (part owned by Warren Buffet) with their new Blade Battery.

But the Ora Punk Cat is perhaps the coolest looking. What is going to be funny is I think it will outsell VWs new EVs in China.

Basically an electric VW beetle!

What I was amazed at until very recently almost all EV's styling was horrific and looked boring and frankly terrible. I'd love to see a Jaguar E type EV or an Aston Martin DB5 EV, why have crap styling???

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Oil is enjoying record high profits and earnings, no where to go but up and up.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Heres-Why-Analysts-Expect-Record-High-Earnings-For-ExxonMobil.html

"Surging prices for plastics are likely to help Exxon's petrochemicals division post record-high earnings this week when the company reports its earnings.Items like flooring, roofing and packaging all saw demand remain firm throughout the pandemic. This helped keep a bid under the price of the commodity while the "lockdown trade" pulled the rug out from under the bid of other items, like vacations and corporate real estate. Chemical ingredients like polyethylene and polyvinyl chloride used to make plastics have seen record-high prices this year. Limited supply and bottlenecked shipping are adding to the price momentum. 

Expectations for Exxon's upcoming earnings report are that the company will show "a radical financial transformation from last year," according to Bloomberg this week. With higher oil prices as an obvious tailwind, the supermajor is expected to have generated enough cash to pay its dividend for a second straight quarter, moving away from the habit of borrowing to fund the distribution.

Morgan Stanley has even said that the company has its "best dividend coverage in a decade".  

Matt Murphy, an analyst at Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. told Bloomberg: “Chemicals has certainly been a noteworthy area of continued improvement for the majors and Exxon in particular. It’s an area that hasn’t tended to get a ton of focus in the past, but it’s providing strong support for free cash flow across the group.”

Bloomberg analysts estimate Exxon's chemicals segment brought in about $1.94 billion in Q2."

Edited July 28, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:31 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

 REE isn't used in batteries. Their use in renewables is as permanent magnets in the more efficient motor/generator designs. Otherwise they are mainly used in all the electronics we use. If you are referring to Cobalt then you are in luck because all those cheap Chinese EV's will be using LFP without cobalt.  

I absolutely agree about the China EVs. I've been looking into them and a lot of them are stunning for the price! My favorite is BYD (part owned by Warren Buffet) with their new Blade Battery.

But the Ora Punk Cat is perhaps the coolest looking. What is going to be funny is I think it will outsell VWs new EVs in China.

Not funny....funky.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 7/27/2021 at 3:38 AM, Jay McKinsey said:

Actual real numbers from the future! HaHaHa That's funny.

Actual numbers provided by experts, who can see what is happening right now in the market.

Of course, if the world wakes up and realizes that renewables are not necessary, that would change.

"In the longer term, we believe the lithium market is likely to be in a perpetual deficit,” Macquarie said.“As a result lithium prices are expected to continue to rise, moving to an incentive price by 2024.“Some new supply additions should temporarily lighten the market in 2026, however beyond 2027 the supply deficit should widen significantly.”Macquarie said this year’s deficit would be a modest 2900t, rising to 20,200t next year and then up 61,000t in 2023.Credit Suisse’s deficit estimate closely follow those of Macquarie’s, but it stretched its forecasts out into 2024 and 2025, when the lithium deficit is forecast to be 117,000t and 248,000t, respectively."

 

 

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:08 AM, Rob Plant said:

Jay it absolutely is and just to confirm where I stand in the whole renewables and EV debate.

I dont believe Co2 is the problem and I dont believe that climate change is caused by this.

However I do want a world without pollution and clean air to breathe that will save many lives and stop many respiratory problems. Ev's and renewables help to serve this purpose so I'm in favour but I do believe there is a place for clean FF powergen as well and there is a place for FF and a good "mix" of powergen sources. The REE mining is an issue that cant be ignored but hopefully we see a breakthrough in battery technology in the next 5 years that negates the need for these. The other issue is recycling wind towers/blades.

 

We are in total agreement about this section of your remarks, but I think that renewables are just trendy, when the new science is better known, the panic over climate change will subside and things should return to normal, whatever that is.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Minnesota has officially become the first Midwestern state to adopt California's stricter emissions standards, as well as a zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate requiring the highest-volume automakers to sell electric cars.

As previously discussed by lawmakers, the new rules go into effect January 1, 2024, for 2025 models. However, automakers may respond sooner rather than later. A Transport Topics report said the selection of zero-emission vehicles available in Minnesota is expected to expand within the next 18 months.

 

Notice of official adoption of the rules was posted July 26 in the Minnesota State Register, according to the report. The finalizes a rule-making effort that started in 2019, and has faced a number of attempts to slow down or halt the process.

With it, Minnesota becomes the 15th Clean Cars state, following California's emissions rules

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

The UK's Health and Safety Executive has given the go-ahead for the country's first trial for blending hydrogen into a public natural gas network, operator Northern Gas Networks said July 26.

The HyDeploy project will deliver a blend of 20% hydrogen into the natural gas supply to Winlaton, Gateshead, supplying 668 houses, a school and several small businesses, for 10 months starting in August, Northern Gas Networks said in a statement.

"The project will provide more vital evidence about the possibilities of blending hydrogen into the natural gas network across the UK, as a stepping stone to decarbonizing heat with no disruption to customers," Northern Gas Networks Head of Programme Management and H21 Project Director Tim Harwood said.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

No lithium required.

Tomorrow the giant Chinese battery cell maker CATL will finally reveal its first sodium-ion battery (SIB).

SIBs are potentially much cheaper to produce than lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). Nonetheless, initially, with small-scale production the cost won’t be impressive, it will be roughly the same as current LFP (LiFePO4) cells that are more energy dense.

Estimated SIB costs per kWh

• Small-scale production (MWh levels): 500 yuan (65 euros) per kWh
• Large-scale production (GWh levels): 200-300 yuan (26-39 euros) per kWh

It’s currently estimated that it’ll take around 2-3 years to reach large-scale production (GWh level) and maximize energy density to reach 200 Wh/kg with kWh cost below 30 euros.

With CTP (cell-to-pack) technology and a GCTP (gravimetric cell-to-pack) ratio of 90 %, if the battery cells reach 200 Wh/kg, the pack density could reach 180 Wh/kg, which is more than most EV battery packs have today. Sodium-ion battery cells are extremely safe and won’t burn or explode even if punctured, this allows to build very simple and cheap battery packs.

Imagine a SIB that has 70 kWh, weighs 389 kg and costs 1.820 euros. It would allow to build electric cars much cheaper than their ICE (Internal Combustion Engine) counterparts.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

We are in total agreement about this section of your remarks, but I think that renewables are just trendy, when the new science is better known, the panic over climate change will subside and things should return to normal, whatever that is.

Your new science is really taking off.

There are some phrases that should stop you in your tracks. The warning of a future that holds "untold suffering" is one of them. That is exactly what scientists from around the world are cautioning will happen if we don't take the threat of climate change seriously. In a paper published Wednesday in the journal BioScience, more than 14,000 scientists from 153 countries signed their name to research that warns of an incoming climate emergency.

The paper, led by researchers from Oregon State University, uses 31 different planetary variables that tell us how Earth is holding up in the face of humanity's insistence on draining natural resources and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The list of checks includes surface temperature levels, rainforest health, and glacial ice levels, along with directly human-controlled factors like the health of the global economy and the availability of fossil fuel subsidies.

https://www.mic.com/p/14000-scientists-warn-of-untold-suffering-if-we-fail-to-act-on-climate-change-82642062

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

EPA to impose new limits on wastewater pollution from coal power plants

The Environmental Protection Agency announced Monday it intends to set more stringent standards on water pollution from coal power plants, reinstating regulations that the Trump administration had rolled back.

It's a stark reversal from the position of the former President's administration, which rolled back dozens of Obama-era environmental regulations. The new rule would affect around 100 coal-fired power plants, according to an EPA official.

The EPA announced it would begin the rule-making process to reduce coal-fired power plant pollution -- including toxic metals like mercury, arsenic and selenium

[turbguy + 1,544]

59 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

EPA to impose new limits on wastewater pollution from coal power plants

The EnvironmentaUghl Protection Agency announced Monday it intends to set more stringent standards on water pollution from coal power plants, reinstating regulations that the Trump administration had rolled back.

It's a stark reversal from the position of the former President's administration, which rolled back dozens of Obama-era environmental regulations. The new rule would affect around 100 coal-fired power plants, according to an EPA official.

The EPA announced it would begin the rule-making process to reduce coal-fired power plant pollution -- including toxic metals like mercury, arsenic and selenium

Ugh.

That's gonna impact bottom ash disposal...

Edited July 29, 2021 by turbguy

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Your new science is really taking off.

There are some phrases that should stop you in your tracks. The warning of a future that holds "untold suffering" is one of them. That is exactly what scientists from around the world are cautioning will happen if we don't take the threat of climate change seriously. In a paper published Wednesday in the journal BioScience, more than 14,000 scientists from 153 countries signed their name to research that warns of an incoming climate emergency.

The paper, led by researchers from Oregon State University, uses 31 different planetary variables that tell us how Earth is holding up in the face of humanity's insistence on draining natural resources and pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The list of checks includes surface temperature levels, rainforest health, and glacial ice levels, along with directly human-controlled factors like the health of the global economy and the availability of fossil fuel subsidies.

https://www.mic.com/p/14000-scientists-warn-of-untold-suffering-if-we-fail-to-act-on-climate-change-82642062

 

The usual discredited science, consisting of a pile of non sequiturs. Science shows how variables are related to each other, it is not a jumble of unrelated ideas.

What you are alluding to is not science, but propaganda. Useful to create political panic, but not rational thinking.

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

Norway is committed to long term oil development and is critical of the political humbug surrounding climate change.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Norway-Wont-Give-Up-On-Oil-Gas.html

"Norway has become yet another oil-producing country that has said it would not stop investing in oil and gas since the IEA suggested in a report in May that the world wouldn’t need new investment in fossil fuels ever if it wants to achieve net-zero in 2050.

The Norwegian Oil and Gas Association has also commented on the IEA report, saying that it “does not share the assumption that Opec members alone should account for more than half of oil and gas production for the world market in a 2050 perspective. If demand does not decline as rapidly as the IEA assumes in its scenario, and the supply side is simultaneously choked off, global energy provision could be threatened and lead to very high energy prices.”

Exploration activity and production offshore Norway were high in the first half of 2021, and many new oil and gas developments are being currently studied, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) said earlier this month. "

Edited July 29, 2021 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,474]

On 7/27/2021 at 4:50 AM, Rob Plant said:

Basically an electric VW beetle!

What I was amazed at until very recently almost all EV's styling was horrific and looked boring and frankly terrible. I'd love to see a Jaguar E type EV or an Aston Martin DB5 EV, why have crap styling???

Don't expect too much from the EV folks....style? What's that?