Jay McKinsey

Battery storage 30% cheaper than new gas peaker plants, Australian study finds

Recommended Posts

(edited)

46 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Large industrial and users get special low rates and should agree to being first to shut down heavy machinery when needed. Exceptions for some industries like food storage and medical. 

Yes.  That type of account is common throughout the industry, and is a means of shedding load, BEFORE an imbalance between generation and demand is reached.

Edited by turbguy
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Large industrial and users get special low rates and should agree to being first to shut down heavy machinery when needed. Exceptions for some industries like food storage and medical. 

Load subject to contracted demand management does not count against the projected max peak: the system is designed to shed this load when required. This will include al the usual suspects as it has for decades. It will also include a whole bunch of new stuff at the level of individual smart appliances and other small but ubiquitous stuff, including home heat pumps and AC. the other big new smart demand is the EVs. All of this fancy stuff means that demand management will be much finer-grained than it is today.

Food storage and medical will not generally have contracted for demand management. If load shedding starts to affect them, the system is operating beyond its worst-case demand projections, and the grid must now struggle to save itself by blacking out some load on an involuntary basis: the classic "rolling blackout" scenario.

Given smart loads everywhere, it would be possible to apply much more precise load shedding, down to the level of individual loads. A customer would contract for certain max demand at each of several priorities, and at different costs for each priority level. For example, In my house I could contact for (say) 0.5 kW "essential", and run the refrigerator, two light bulbs, and the router, "high-pri" would include hot water and heat pump. "medium-pri" would be the rest of the house, and low pri would be the EV. Or whatever.

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Load subject to contracted demand management does not count against the projected max peak: the system is designed to shed this load when required. This will include al the usual suspects as it has for decades. It will also include a whole bunch of new stuff at the level of individual smart appliances and other small but ubiquitous stuff, including home heat pumps and AC. the other big new smart demand is the EVs. All of this fancy stuff means that demand management will be much finer-grained than it is today.

Food storage and medical will not generally have contracted for demand management. If load shedding starts to affect them, the system is operating beyond its worst-case demand projections, and the grid must now struggle to save itself by blacking out some load on an involuntary basis: the classic "rolling blackout" scenario.

Given smart loads everywhere, it would be possible to apply much more precise load shedding, down to the level of individual loads. A customer would contract for certain max demand at each of several priorities, and at different costs for each priority level. For example, In my house I could contact for (say) 0.5 kW "essential", and run the refrigerator, two light bulbs, and the router, "high-pri" would include hot water and heat pump. "medium-pri" would be the rest of the house, and low pri would be the EV. Or whatever.

Smart metering already exists in many areas, and is relatively inexpensive.  The "load shed granularity" at the residential level can be controlled to individual meters.  Those can be back-fitted right now, with no need to change appliances or alter your internal circuitry.

Edited by turbguy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, turbguy said:

Smart metering already exists in many areas, and is relatively inexpensive.  The "load shed granularity" at the residential level can be controlled to individual meters.  Those can be back-fitted right now, with no need to change appliances or alter your internal circuitry.

But I want to automatically selectively load shed within my home. I don't want an all-or-nothing loss of electricity. I think this means that my individual loads must be sensitive to a signal from the meter (or somewhere), and this does require some sort of per-circuit or per-appliance control. I know I can ask the electric company to install something on an electric hot water heater that responds to a signal. That is a crude baby step.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

One thing about this is the authors should be shot at sunrise for cherry picking the data. I got my IBEW journeyman's card as a dispatcher and was certified by IEEE a a Power Generation and Transmission Protection specialist in 1975. The authors do not factor in any intelligent manner something called parallel path(linear programming-simplex mathematics developed by John von Neuman) nor do I see them calculating costs  for managing dynamic reactive power, (all inverters give you synthetic inertia)/grid inertia, phase angle/relaying, frequency and voltage control.  Voltage will control frequency  but not the other way around. I doubt any of the authors would recognize Maxwell's equations if they walked up, said.  "excuse me " and then bit them in the ass.

Inverters destabilize the grid when they reach a significant percentage of load. https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy21osti/73476.pdf

"This report is intended to provide a comprehensive analysis of the challenges in integrating inverter-based resources and offer recommendations on potential technology pathways to inform the academic community, industry, and government research organizations. Although the focus of this roadmap is on grid-forming inverter controls, their impact on grid stability, and evaluating crucial system interactions (e.g., protection), we recognize that the large interconnections in North America will comprise both electromechanical and inverter-based resources (in this roadmap, sometimes called a hybrid power system). More importantly, we further recognize that inverter-based resources will comprise both grid-forming resources and other forms of control, such as grid-following resources. "

The February 15th was a rerun of the February 1-4, 2011 winter storm. EPE is an example of the problems when DYNAMIC support for the grid is missing. 

"Because of the significant loss of its local generation (six out of seven operational units) and the resulting loss of dynamic reactive support, EPE was limited in the amount of generation that could be imported on its transmission system.

On 2/2 "2:02 AM, EPE purchased power from SPS; the Eddy DC tie was opened and ramped to 100 MW. "

5:07 am t 5:07 AM, the HVDC terminal at the Eddy DC Tie experienced a runback169 from 100 MW to 48 MW. https://www.ferc.gov/sites/default/files/2020-04/08-16-11-report.pdf p105-6 this due to loss of DYNAMIC reactive power. incident

The EPE is a classic example of synthetic inertia failure  associated with inverters because they have no inertial mass. LBNL explanation of low inertia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZtzgWsWImsBlackout like ERCOT Feb. 15 2021.  EPE fixed their problems.

Correct solution https://www.powermag.com/aes-uses-synchronous-condensers-for-grid-balancing/

 

 

 

 

Edited by nsdp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

But I want to automatically selectively load shed within my home. I don't want an all-or-nothing loss of electricity. I think this means that my individual loads must be sensitive to a signal from the meter (or somewhere), and this does require some sort of per-circuit or per-appliance control. I know I can ask the electric company to install something on an electric hot water heater that responds to a signal. That is a crude baby step.

IF you have an electric hot water heater.  If nat gas, no deal.

I agree that selective load sheds are desirable, but reflect on all the devices that must be altered or installed to perform what you want to do.

I guess a host of "smart outlets/plugs" could be an option for some devices, but typically not large hard-wired residential loads.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, turbguy said:

IF you have an electric hot water heater.  If nat gas, no deal.

I agree that selective load sheds are desirable, but reflect on all the devices that must be altered or installed to perform what you want to do.

I guess a host of "smart outlets/plugs" could be an option for some devices, but typically not large hard-wired residential loads.

No, it does not work with your natural gas appliances, but the need for fine control of natural gas usage is a truly exceptional situation. The only occurrence of this that I can recall happened in Texas in February 2021.

For fine-grained demand management of electricity I anticipate a gradual transition. Basically all big appliances now have a microcontroller of some sort because they are cheaper than the electromechanical controllers they replaced.  The incremental cost of an over-the-wire receiver is probably less than one dollar, and the incremental per-unit cost of the controller software is basically zero. The only extra functionality would be defining the protocol that continuously (say, once per second) broadcasts the current load-shedding level from the meter to the house wiring.  So, if an industry standards body published a trivially-simple spec for the protocol, we would eventually get there. Higher-end appliances would integrate with smart home systems to allow for (fairly worthless) fancy monitoring and reconfiguration.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

49 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

No, it does not work with your natural gas appliances, but the need for fine control of natural gas usage is a truly exceptional situation. The only occurrence of this that I can recall happened in Texas in February 2021.

For fine-grained demand management of electricity I anticipate a gradual transition. Basically all big appliances now have a microcontroller of some sort because they are cheaper than the electromechanical controllers they replaced.  The incremental cost of an over-the-wire receiver is probably less than one dollar, and the incremental per-unit cost of the controller software is basically zero. The only extra functionality would be defining the protocol that continuously (say, once per second) broadcasts the current load-shedding level from the meter to the house wiring.  So, if an industry standards body published a trivially-simple spec for the protocol, we would eventually get there. Higher-end appliances would integrate with smart home systems to allow for (fairly worthless) fancy monitoring and reconfiguration.

Actually, if these "smart appliances" could simply monitor frequency, they might not even need any communication,

Heavy load, if frequency drops by say 0.2 %, off.

Lighter loads, if frequency drops .3%, off.

or something similar.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Actually, if these "smart appliances" could simply monitor frequency, they might not even need any communication,

Heavy load, if frequency drops by say 0.2 %, off.

Lighter loads, if frequency drops .3%, off.

or something similar.

 

Here is where my ignorance shows up. I simply do not know the details of how the gird reacts to overload the way you do.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

16 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Here is where my ignorance shows up. I simply do not know the details of how the gird reacts to overload the way you do.

Seems that might take some deeper thought, but auto-load shedding based on granular underfrequency monitoring for household load should work.

It should be possible to even build that functionality into individual circuit-breakers in the home's panel.

Then you could just switch old breakers with upgraded breakers (like the way arc-detection breakers came into being) to install it. 

Easy-peasy??

Particularly with new construction!

Edited by turbguy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Seems that might take some deeper thought, but auto-load shedding based on granular underfrequency monitoring for household load should work.

It should be possible to even build that functionality into individual circuit-breakers in the home's panel.

Then you could just switch old breakers with upgraded breakers (like the way arc-detection breakers came into being) to install it. 

Easy-peasy??

If frequency is a (usually) reliable signal, then adding frequency-monitoring inside each appliance that already has a microcontrooler (i.e., most of them) is a very inexpensive option. These can implement algorithms to sample and make appropriate decisions e.g. about how long to stay off or when to turn off. For example, a microwave that has less than a minute on its timer might stay on until the end of the time, whille a microwave that has just noticed that the frequency has recovered might delay starting a new job for at least a few seconds. the hot water heater would shut off instantly, but would stay off for longer after recovery if the heater temperature was still above the "load-shedding" temperature setting.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sure when Elon builds them for next to nothing! 90% of the County is waste land…

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Here is an article which shows that renewable electricity is less reliable than gas generated electricity.

This pretty well decides the argument.

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Renewable-Energy/The-Ugly-Truth-About-Renewable-Power.html

And from Forbes,

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2021/04/20/why-renewables-cause-blackouts-and-increase-vulnerability-to-extreme-weather/?sh=7f0d46764e75

Edited by Ecocharger
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 4/29/2021 at 8:04 PM, Ecocharger said:

I'm not aware of any expert that thinks wind or solar are more reliable than natural gas-powered generators, so this is a false argument. Both of these articles incorrectly generalize from wind and solar to "renewables".  (As an aside, this is a false generalization, since geothermal and hydro both count as renewable and are more reliable than NG. Nuclear is also more reliable than NG.)

Wind and solar are variable. Solar is reliably variable in some seasons and some places. If you want a system with more than about 20% wind and solar, you need reliable mid-term and long-term storage. The best candidate for mid-and long-term storage is pumped hydro. Pumped hydro is more reliable than natural gas. With pumped hydro, you can design and implement a system that goes all the way to 100% renewable.

The main problem with pumped hydro is a very long implementation time. This is driven almost entirely by environmental regulations and permitting, which do not distinguish closed-loop pumped hydro from traditional hydro-electric dams.

  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

1 hour ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

The main problem with pumped hydro is a very long implementation time. This is driven almost entirely by environmental regulations and permitting, which do not distinguish closed-loop pumped hydro from traditional hydro-electric dams.

There are other gravity potential storage techniques that require less regulatory approval.

Electric cranes that stack blocks or a heavy locomotive on a hill.  

Unlike with water there are no fish to disrupt, and you can't leak or evaporate away your energy.   Even "borrowing" water from an ecosystem can have serious detrimental effects, generally thermal pollution / deoxygenation.

Edited by -trance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, -trance said:

There are other gravity potential storage techniques that require less regulatory approval.

Electric cranes that stack blocks or a heavy locomotive on a hill.  

Unlike with water there are no fish to disrupt, and you can't leak or evaporate away your energy.   Even "borrowing" water from an ecosystem can have serious detrimental effects, generally thermal pollution / deoxygenation.

A closed pumped hydro system does not need to interact with the ecosystem at all. You need to "borrow" that water only once, just like you need to "borrow" whatever mass is used in those other gravity systems. There were no fish in the upper and lower reservoirs to begin with because those reservoirs did not exist before the system was built, and the water won't evaporate if you put covers on the reservoirs.

For any gravity system (see this), you get a theoretical 1.36 Wh/kg for a 500m lift. That's 1.36 kWh/tonne. For water, a tonne is a cubic meter, so a pair of reservoirs that are each 1 sq. km in area will provide 1.36 GWh for each meter of depth.

For comparison, one bbl (of oil or whatever) is 159 liters. The total oil storage capacity at Cushing is 75.8 million bbl. If you split that tankage and put half at the top of your 500-meter mountain and half at the bottom, you can store 6 GL = 8.2 GWh of electricity.

A square km is 247 acres. Assume a 10 meter depth: we can store 1 GWh in each 25 acres. The US has more than 735 ash ponds of more than 50 acres each with an average depth of 40 feet: this would store more than 1500 GWh if these ponds were magically relocated to suitable locations.

  • Great Response! 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 5/2/2021 at 12:59 PM, -trance said:

There are other gravity potential storage techniques that require less regulatory approval.

Electric cranes that stack blocks or a heavy locomotive on a hill.  

Unlike with water there are no fish to disrupt, and you can't leak or evaporate away your energy.   Even "borrowing" water from an ecosystem can have serious detrimental effects, generally thermal pollution / deoxygenation.

Stacking blocks vs pumped hydro: let's assume your blocks are lead (density=11). Anything denser will cost too much. A water tank will need to have the same height and 11 times the area of your lead stack to store the same energy. The water tank would have a diameter 3.3 times the cylindrical lead stack.  I see no way the stack of lead is cost-competitive even before we look at the other system components.

The only place I can think of that may effectively store energy with weights is a skyscraper. Lift people up in the morning using solar energy, and recover the energy during the evening rush hour by lowering them back down.😀

  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

13 minutes ago, Dan Clemmensen said:

Stacking blocks vs pumped hydro: let's assume your blocks are lead (density=11). Anything denser will cost too much. A water tank will need to have the same height and 11 times the area of your lead stack to store the same energy. The water tank would have a diameter 3.3 times the cylindrical lead stack.  I see no way the stack of lead is cost-competitive even before we look at the other system components.

The only place I can think of that may effectively store energy with weights is a skyscraper. Lift people up in the morning using solar energy, and recover the energy during the evening rush hour by lowering them back down.😀

I only mentioned it because of the comment about regulatory hurdles related to water systems.

I agree pumped water is probably better, but water is essential for life and lead or rocks is not.

"Lifted human flesh" is awesome!

Edited by -trance

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.