COVID restrictions and number of COVID deaths

[Tomasz + 1,608]

 

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This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz)

You can read about the methodology here.

All in all, this sadly comports with the “millions” prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year I thought we would top out at 10 million, the spread of more infectious variants and vaccine distribution snafus means that we will almost certainly exceed that cumulatively by the end of this year. I also think it likely that even these excess mortality estimates substantially undercount India and Indonesia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa (though the latter is insulated by its very low median age). Remember that statistics are often substandard outside the industrialized world, and more speculative than real in much of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Here are the top 20 countries by Corona mortality from March 2020 to this May:

Country	Total COVID-19 deaths	Reported COVID-19 deaths
United States of America	905,289	574,043
India	654,395	221,181
Mexico	617,127	217,694
Brazil	595,903	408,680
Russian Federation	593,610	109,334
United Kingdom	209,661	150,519
Italy	175,832	121,257
Iran	174,177	72,906
Egypt	170,041	13,529
South Africa	160,452	54,390
Poland	149,855	68,237
Peru	147,765	62,739
Ukraine	138,507	46,737
France	132,680	105,506
Spain	123,786	85,365
Germany	120,729	83,256
Indonesia	115,743	45,938
Japan	108,320	10,390
Romania	87,649	28,382
Kazakhstan	81,696	5,620

And here are the top per capita “performers” (deaths per 100,000):

Country	Total COVID-19 death rate	Reported COVID-19 death rate
Azerbaijan	648.8	44.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina	587.2	262.1
Bulgaria	544.5	238.7
Albania	525.7	88.0
Mexico	493.9	174.2
North Macedonia	467.9	230.0
Belarus	459.6	27.1
Romania	455.6	147.5
Kazakhstan	444.2	30.6
Peru	434.7	184.6
Slovakia	427.6	216.6
Russian Federation	404.6	74.5
Lithuania	395.1	141.7
Poland	389.9	177.5
Czechia	386.8	276.0
Hungary	386.7	288.2
Republic of Moldova	377.6	158.4
Montenegro	338.1	242.0
Ukraine	314.5	106.1
Latvia	312.6	111.9

In the end, there seems to have been very little difference in outcomes amongst the East Europeans, despite significant policy differences (e.g. Belarus never had a lockdown, Lukashenko being an outspoken floomer, while Ukraine had the strongest lockdowns). Russia, which didn’t have real lockdowns after the first one, is around the same ballpark as Poland, and Ukraine is catching up fast. If you’re not serious about suppressing Corona and then keeping it that way through centralized quarantines and technological means, then it’s best not to bother with lockdowns at all to at least keep the GDP pumped. This is why I refrained from endorsing the second round of lockdowns.

Anyhow, by and large, vaccines are now accessible to anybody who wants them. So I can’t say I actually care about deaths at this point, if elderly anti-vaxxers want to croak, then good on them for reducing the pensions burden.

Amusingly, the world leader in Corona deaths seems to be Azerbaijan. These are the Chads would marched through the streets of Baku, demanding “end the lockdown, start the war.” Azerbaijan had a good year, its territory expanded.

Serbia is conspicuous by its absence. Vucic has handled things extremely well. Its politicians might be more rational than in most of Europe.

https://www.unz.com/akarlin/

 

 

 

Edited May 10, 2021 by Tomasz

[Boat + 1,323]

Sugar, carbs, pollution, and lack of nutrition along with poor health care institutions feeding drugs to a hungry population set up many of these COVID deaths but yea, it’s a dangerous virus that exposes how humans take care of themselves. That’s a run on sentence. COVID also exposed the idiocy of political ideology that drives many of the above mentioned policies. Let’s label it Freedom and move on. 

Edited July 5, 2021 by Boat

[Boat + 1,323]

I read about a study. 400 hospitals and 95% of deaths came with patients with 1,2 or all three conditions. Obesity, hypertension and lipid metabolism/basically diabetes. So where is the political will to force these fat, lazy, no workout fools from collapsing our economy the next time COVID comes around. If your not getting good nutrition why not jack up your insurance rates. If you smoke or drink shouldn’t you pay your way? If your overweight why does your healthcare cost the same. These are the folks that drive up costs for healthcare for the rest of us. We’ll that and the emergency room healthcare plan. But that’s different issue.

[Boat + 1,323]

On 5/10/2021 at 5:08 PM, Tomasz said:

 

Great chart.

[-trance + 114]

On 7/13/2021 at 12:24 PM, Boat said:

So where is the political will to force these fat, lazy, no workout fools from collapsing our economy the next time COVID comes around. If your not getting good nutrition why not jack up your insurance rates. If you smoke or drink shouldn’t you pay your way? If your overweight why does your healthcare cost the same. These are the folks that drive up costs for healthcare for the rest of us. We’ll that and the emergency room healthcare plan. But that’s different issue.

Blaming the patient for their illness is a slippery slope.

The vast, vast majority of my medical bills have come from sports. Is bicycle racing healthy or a high-risk activity? Ever watch the Tour de France?

My family doctor likes me to exercise a lot.  My plastic surgeon wants me to ride less.

My right ring finger is probably worth a quarter million by now. Two surgeries by a hand expert, shit tons of x-rays and physiotherapy.  Pretty sure me eating cheeseburgers and dying on the couch would save the health care system money.

Edited July 14, 2021 by -trance

[Boat + 1,323]

19 minutes ago, -trance said:

Blaming the patient for their illness is a slippery slope.

The vast, vast majority of my medical bills have come from sports. Is bicycle racing healthy or a high-risk activity? Ever watch the Tour de France?

My family doctor likes me to exercise a lot.  My plastic surgeon wants me to ride less.

My right ring finger is probably worth a quarter million by now. Two surgeries by a hand expert, shit tons of x-rays and physiotherapy.  Pretty sure me eating cheeseburgers and dying on the couch would save the health care system money.

To be clear I am talking about higher insurance rates for the 40+ percentage of adults that are obese or have hypertension/blood pressure or diabetes. Like the alcoholic and drug abuser these people raise rates for those trying to do the right by eating health and exercising. 
Most of those who had COVID and died had at least one of those problems in a 400 hospital study. That’s the human cost. I was pointing out the financial costs. 

[-trance + 114]

The vast majority of people have some form of health condition.

Off the top of my head I can't think of anybody who doesn't take some form of medication.  Non-prescription counts.

Do you know that an antihistamine for allergies makes you as impaired as 0.05% blood alcohol level?  Are allergy sufferers in the same category as alcoholics for you?  The medication is not risk free.

People who suffer headaches and take too much NSAIDs can get heart and stomach issues.

Even things like birth control have risks.  Should women be forced to pay more if they take oral birth control?  After all they could just not have sex right?

In my peak racing years I was investigated for systolic-only hypertension. I had a resting heart rate of 48bpm and VO2max of 64mL/Kg/min so my cardio-respiratory fitness was excellent...