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COVID restrictions and number of COVID deaths

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This is Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s assessment of global excess mortality from COVID-19 from the beginning until May 3, 2021. (h/t Ron Unz)

You can read about the methodology here.

All in all, this sadly comports with the “millions” prediction I made in February 24, 2020. While at the end of last year I thought we would top out at 10 million, the spread of more infectious variants and vaccine distribution snafus means that we will almost certainly exceed that cumulatively by the end of this year. I also think it likely that even these excess mortality estimates substantially undercount India and Indonesia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa (though the latter is insulated by its very low median age). Remember that statistics are often substandard outside the industrialized world, and more speculative than real in much of Sub-Saharan Africa.

Here are the top 20 countries by Corona mortality from March 2020 to this May:

Country Total COVID-19 deaths Reported COVID-19 deaths
United States of America 905,289 574,043
India 654,395 221,181
Mexico 617,127 217,694
Brazil 595,903 408,680
Russian Federation 593,610 109,334
United Kingdom 209,661 150,519
Italy 175,832 121,257
Iran 174,177 72,906
Egypt 170,041 13,529
South Africa 160,452 54,390
Poland 149,855 68,237
Peru 147,765 62,739
Ukraine 138,507 46,737
France 132,680 105,506
Spain 123,786 85,365
Germany 120,729 83,256
Indonesia 115,743 45,938
Japan 108,320 10,390
Romania 87,649 28,382
Kazakhstan 81,696 5,620

And here are the top per capita “performers” (deaths per 100,000):

Country Total COVID-19 death rate Reported COVID-19 death rate
Azerbaijan 648.8 44.6
Bosnia and Herzegovina 587.2 262.1
Bulgaria 544.5 238.7
Albania 525.7 88.0
Mexico 493.9 174.2
North Macedonia 467.9 230.0
Belarus 459.6 27.1
Romania 455.6 147.5
Kazakhstan 444.2 30.6
Peru 434.7 184.6
Slovakia 427.6 216.6
Russian Federation 404.6 74.5
Lithuania 395.1 141.7
Poland 389.9 177.5
Czechia 386.8 276.0
Hungary 386.7 288.2
Republic of Moldova 377.6 158.4
Montenegro 338.1 242.0
Ukraine 314.5 106.1
Latvia 312.6 111.9

In the end, there seems to have been very little difference in outcomes amongst the East Europeans, despite significant policy differences (e.g. Belarus never had a lockdown, Lukashenko being an outspoken floomer, while Ukraine had the strongest lockdowns). Russia, which didn’t have real lockdowns after the first one, is around the same ballpark as Poland, and Ukraine is catching up fast. If you’re not serious about suppressing Corona and then keeping it that way through centralized quarantines and technological means, then it’s best not to bother with lockdowns at all to at least keep the GDP pumped. This is why I refrained from endorsing the second round of lockdowns.

Anyhow, by and large, vaccines are now accessible to anybody who wants them. So I can’t say I actually care about deaths at this point, if elderly anti-vaxxers want to croak, then good on them for reducing the pensions burden.

Amusingly, the world leader in Corona deaths seems to be Azerbaijan. These are the Chads would marched through the streets of Baku, demanding “end the lockdown, start the war.” Azerbaijan had a good year, its territory expanded.

Serbia is conspicuous by its absence. Vucic has handled things extremely well. Its politicians might be more rational than in most of Europe.





Edited by Tomasz

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