Texas Power Outage Danger Until June 18th. Texans told to conserve energy!

[notsonice + 1,255]

7 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

It cannot make money for the society as a whole. Only for those who can benefit from the changes in government policy. Choosing to ignore basic economic forces involves a huge social cost to the larger community. Cheap energy is about to disappear, and that will impact the poor people the most.

 

and the reality electricity is getting cheaper over time when adjusted for inflation. In the last 5 years it dropped 5 percent.

 

Inflation Adjusted Electricity Prices (1979-2020)

Category: Electricity per kWh

Year	Average Electricity Prices by Year*	Average Annual CPI for Electricity**	Electricity Prices Adjusted for Inflation in 2020 Dollars
1979	$0.050	65.600	$0.164
1980	$0.060	75.800	$0.170
1981	$0.069	87.200	$0.170
1982	$0.076	95.800	$0.170
1983	$0.078	98.900	$0.169
1984	$0.082	105.300	$0.167
1985	$0.081	108.900	$0.160
1986	$0.077	110.400	$0.150
1987	$0.079	110.000	$0.154
1988	$0.080	111.500	$0.154
1989	$0.082	114.700	$0.153
1990	$0.084	117.400	$0.154
1991	$0.087	121.800	$0.153
1992	$0.088	124.200	$0.152
1993	$0.092	126.700	$0.156
1994	$0.092	126.700	$0.156
1995	$0.094	129.600	$0.156
1996	$0.094	131.800	$0.153
1997	$0.094	132.500	$0.152
1998	$0.087	127.400	$0.147
1999	$0.086	126.500	$0.146
2000	$0.087	128.500	$0.145
2001	$0.092	137.800	$0.143
2002	$0.091	136.200	$0.143
2003	$0.093	139.500	$0.143
2004	$0.094	142.100	$0.142
2005	$0.100	150.800	$0.142
2006	$0.112	169.200	$0.142
2007	$0.117	175.825	$0.143
2008	$0.123	187.146	$0.141
2009	$0.127	192.712	$0.141
2010	$0.128	193.095	$0.142
2011	$0.130	196.737	$0.142
2012	$0.130	196.630	$0.142
2013	$0.132	200.750	$0.141
2014	$0.137	208.020	$0.141
2015	$0.138	209.191	$0.142
2016	$0.135	206.983	$0.140
2017	$0.138	211.437	$0.140
2018	$0.136	212.932	$0.137
2019	$0.136	213.362	$0.137
2020	$0.135	214.615	$0.135

*Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 12-Month Average Electricity per kWh in U.S. city average, average price, not seasonally adjusted. CPI Average Price Data.

**Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 12-Month Average Electricity in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted. CPI-All Urban Consumers.

[turbguy + 1,544]

Hey!

I hear that the FBI was responsible for the excessive forced outages in Texas!

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

23 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Hey!

I hear that the FBI was responsible for the excessive forced outages in Texas!

Bitcoin..

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

10 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status 

None of those are rolling blackouts. Just plain old power outages for whatever reason, but not a shortage of electricity.

What is a CAISO Rotating Outage?

CAISO rotating outages (Stage 3 CAISO Emergencies) become necessary when the state's electricity demand outpaces available supply in real time or are unavoidable. CAISO will typically order the state's investor-owned utilities, including SCE, to reduce electrical load by turning off service immediately. 

A rotating outage typically lasts one hour. We manage and rotate the outage across groups of customers throughout the service territory to protect the integrity of our electric system, while limiting the inconvenience to any one customer or community.

System Status: Normal

https://www.sce.com/outage-center/outage-information/rotating-outages/rotating-group-number

Edited June 19, 2021 by Jay McKinsey

[nsdp + 449]

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.png?uniquenessFactor=1624071324728

On 6/15/2021 at 11:04 PM, ronwagn said:

Not enough wind for the turbines?

Hot air generates high pressure and kills the wind,  that is not the problem. You can't fix powerplants with chewing gum and bailing wire; most are repeats from February and April. . Several plants derated because their cooling water lakes are too hot and the heat exchangers  won't pull enough vacuum on the condenser..  Very typical summer wind profile. Peak at midnight and bottom at 1300-1600 and up trend as the sun goes down. Solar peaked at 7000mw when   wind bottomed.  They could get another 3000mw of wind if the Panhandle Loop wasn't congested.  http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.html

http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.png?uniquenessFactor=1624071324728

Edited June 19, 2021 by nsdp
add chart

[turbguy + 1,544]

29 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status 

Did you happen to note the number of customers affected by each of those distribution system outages?   It ranges from 0 to about 60...

Edited June 19, 2021 by turbguy

[turbguy + 1,544]

35 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Several plants derated because their cooling water lakes are too hot and the heat exchangers  won't pull enough vacuum on the condenser..

I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. 

Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect.  It's predictable.

Similar with a CT.  High air inlet temps causes derates.   Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean).

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 minute ago, turbguy said:

I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. 

Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect.  It's predictable.

Similar with a CT.  High air inlet temps causes derates.   Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean).

My first tech job was writing software for inlet water fogging equipment.

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 6/16/2021 at 5:26 AM, Eric Gagen said:

June is traditionally the start of the cooling season in Texas, and the first major heat wave often comes by mid June.  My 'back of the envelope' guess is that they didn't get their maintenance done as fast as they had projected, and are sweeping that under the rug to avoid another political inquisition.   

I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them.

In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences."

Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:
https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/

[BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762]

On 6/16/2021 at 9:59 AM, Dan Clemmensen said:

All true. In addition, to migigate peak summer loads, add solar (+battery) The advantage of solar is that it is most productive when the sun shines, which is also when you need the electricity.

And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold?

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

27 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold?

For now, I plan to use whatever generators I have available from my 15% capacity reserve, starting with the most efficient and working down from there. I plan to pay for this reserve capacity by billing all my customers at a  fixed percentage of their usage every month. Oh, wait, I'm not the one in charge of planning, so I guess you will need to ask ERCOT instead. Note that is still less expensive for all of us to install and use solar (+ battery) in the summer.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

52 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold?

My answer is three fold:

• Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold
• It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards)
• natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home.  That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly.  

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

Just checked in on Ron's power outage link. It must suck to live downwind of Disneyland.

[turbguy + 1,544]

1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them.

In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences."

Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:
https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/

It's impossible to hide the fact that a generator has begun a derate or suddenly goes off-line. 

The billing systems alone will disclose that.

The generator operator MUST report the facts of that occurrence to the national (or state) GADS database (Generating Availability Data System).

GADS is a mandatory industry program for conventional generating units that are 20 MW and larger.

Edited June 19, 2021 by turbguy

[nsdp + 449]

20 hours ago, turbguy said:

I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. 

Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect.  It's predictable.

Similar with a CT.  High air inlet temps causes derates.   Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean).

Clean water Act Amendments of 1991 dropped allowable out flow temps from cooling ponds etc into waters of the US BY 5 Degrees F(its now against the law to fry your fish before you catch them) so we no longer have legitimate performance curves. Since day time temps have been 6 degrees F above normal this last week it is a real guessing game in Texas.   CT's are easy. Use the ISO curve for air temps an density.  Anything above 660mw is stream condenser That catches the 11 largest units.  There are smaller steam units like Greens Bayou that are on because they are the biggest block of available reactive  for downtown Houston.

Hard to find real numbers because we have finally got a class action larger than the LoVaca Gas Gathering lawsuit from the 1970's.

 

 

[Dan Clemmensen + 1,011]

2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

My answer is three fold:

• Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold
• It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards)
• natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home.  That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly.  

 

By that measure, heat pumps are more than 100% efficient. They provide more heat than the BTU value of the NG that was used to produce the electricity that they use. They are called "heat pumps" for a reason: they concentrate the low-temperature heat in the outside air to produce high-temperature heat in the inside air. A ground-source heat pump is even more efficient than an air-source heat pump.

[nsdp + 449]

3 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold?

Well if you have ever looked at wind production curves?  Wind peaks in Jan and Feb at night.

[nsdp + 449]

3 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said:

I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them.

In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences."

Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:
https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/

Let's just say the US Supreme Court killed Abbotts plans before he was even in law school. FERC v. Mississippi. 456 U.S. 742 (1982)

"Insofar as § 210 authorizes the FERC to exempt qualified power facilities from state laws and regulations, it does nothing more than preempt conflicting state enactments in the traditional way. Because of the substantial interstate effect of such activity, Congress may preempt the States completely in the regulation of retail sales by electric and gas utilities and of transactions between such utilities and cogenerators.

"Congress may require a state administrative body to consider proposed federal regulations as a condition to its continued involvement in a preemptible field, it may require the use of certain procedural minima during that body's deliberations on the subject."

Edited June 20, 2021 by nsdp
quotayion mark missing

[nsdp + 449]

2 hours ago, turbguy said:

It's impossible to hide the fact that a generator has begun a derate or suddenly goes off-line. 

The billing systems alone will disclose that.

The generator operator MUST report the facts of that occurrence to the national (or state) GADS database (Generating Availability Data System).

GADS is a mandatory industry program for conventional generating units that are 20 MW and larger.

Yes they must report but that doesn't  prevent them from filing "alternative facts" like gov. Abbott's claim that the February outages were renewables fault.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

My answer is three fold:

• Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold
• It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards)
• natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home.  That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly.  

 

If you installed a natural gas powered heat pump you would get 3X-->5X the heat and AC as well.  Of course at this point go electric and install a solar loop for the AC side of things. 

Still waiting for a residential heat pump that also has a loop tap for the hot water tank.  Maybe one exists.  Have to admit Have not looked for a normal heat pump  in 5 years. 

[turbguy + 1,544]

3 hours ago, nsdp said:

Yes they must report but that doesn't  prevent them from filing "alternative facts" like gov. Abbott's claim that the February outages were renewables fault.

Yup, you gotta trust the GADS reporting.  My use of it always used a grain of salt, but it was accurate in about 90+% of reports.  Typically, that reporting is performed at the secretarial level interviewing plant personnel.

Sometimes it requires a "deep dive" into sequence-of-event recordings to uncover the root cause. 

Who'da  thunk that fussing with changing resin on the secondary side of TMI2 would cascade into a meltdown? THAT was a GADS conundrum.

But once you are off-line, why bother lying?  Certainly plant management wants the truth. 

If it's operator error, or you had a boiler tube leak, or lost a feedpump, or suffered a Main Transformer fault, who really cares about lying?  What does it get you?

UNLESS there is some Enron-style manipulation...

Edited June 20, 2021 by turbguy

[Boat + 1,324]

One thing we don’t discuss much is growing demand in Texas. In the last decade consumption is up 20%. So a huge market is growing very fast. One of the reasons electricity is fairly cheap in Texas is it’s decision to run a lower margin of safety capacity over consumption. For the most part that strategy has been successful except for 2 large storms 10 years apart. 
This new heat wave consumption seems more preventable that could easily be solved by more solar and accompanying transmission lines at very competitive prices. But baseline consumption from growth and population probably needs further addition in nat gas. 
Since Texas has great wind at a cheap price they can afford expansion in battery storage also.

Personally I blame Gov Abbot and politics for Texas grid problems. Up the capacity a few percent using home grown wind, solar and nat gas and of course pay attention to massive growth in market.

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 6/15/2021 at 10:44 PM, turbguy said:

If you can generate power using zero fuel, zero water, zero treatment chemistry, and infinitesimal operating emissions, that would be too good to be true, eh?

Zero fuel doesn't justify a capex that yields 3% returns 

[turbguy + 1,544]

46 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

Zero fuel doesn't justify a capex that yields 3% returns 

If the full extent of externalities of fossil fuels were properly recognized, capex would mean sh*t.

Remember that "some things are not for sale".

I can name PLENTY!

That said, fossil fuels ain't going away for quite a while.

Edited June 20, 2021 by turbguy