notsonice + 1,262 DM June 18, 2021 7 hours ago, Ecocharger said: It cannot make money for the society as a whole. Only for those who can benefit from the changes in government policy. Choosing to ignore basic economic forces involves a huge social cost to the larger community. Cheap energy is about to disappear, and that will impact the poor people the most. and the reality electricity is getting cheaper over time when adjusted for inflation. In the last 5 years it dropped 5 percent. Inflation Adjusted Electricity Prices (1979-2020) Category: Electricity per kWh Year Average Electricity Prices by Year* Average Annual CPI for Electricity** Electricity Prices Adjusted for Inflation in 2020 Dollars 1979 $0.050 65.600 $0.164 1980 $0.060 75.800 $0.170 1981 $0.069 87.200 $0.170 1982 $0.076 95.800 $0.170 1983 $0.078 98.900 $0.169 1984 $0.082 105.300 $0.167 1985 $0.081 108.900 $0.160 1986 $0.077 110.400 $0.150 1987 $0.079 110.000 $0.154 1988 $0.080 111.500 $0.154 1989 $0.082 114.700 $0.153 1990 $0.084 117.400 $0.154 1991 $0.087 121.800 $0.153 1992 $0.088 124.200 $0.152 1993 $0.092 126.700 $0.156 1994 $0.092 126.700 $0.156 1995 $0.094 129.600 $0.156 1996 $0.094 131.800 $0.153 1997 $0.094 132.500 $0.152 1998 $0.087 127.400 $0.147 1999 $0.086 126.500 $0.146 2000 $0.087 128.500 $0.145 2001 $0.092 137.800 $0.143 2002 $0.091 136.200 $0.143 2003 $0.093 139.500 $0.143 2004 $0.094 142.100 $0.142 2005 $0.100 150.800 $0.142 2006 $0.112 169.200 $0.142 2007 $0.117 175.825 $0.143 2008 $0.123 187.146 $0.141 2009 $0.127 192.712 $0.141 2010 $0.128 193.095 $0.142 2011 $0.130 196.737 $0.142 2012 $0.130 196.630 $0.142 2013 $0.132 200.750 $0.141 2014 $0.137 208.020 $0.141 2015 $0.138 209.191 $0.142 2016 $0.135 206.983 $0.140 2017 $0.138 211.437 $0.140 2018 $0.136 212.932 $0.137 2019 $0.136 213.362 $0.137 2020 $0.135 214.615 $0.135 *Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 12-Month Average Electricity per kWh in U.S. city average, average price, not seasonally adjusted. CPI Average Price Data. **Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics: 12-Month Average Electricity in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted. CPI-All Urban Consumers. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 19, 2021 Hey! I hear that the FBI was responsible for the excessive forced outages in Texas! 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eyes Wide Open + 3,555 June 19, 2021 23 minutes ago, turbguy said: Hey! I hear that the FBI was responsible for the excessive forced outages in Texas! Bitcoin.. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ronwagn + 6,290 June 19, 2021 Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 19, 2021 (edited) 10 minutes ago, ronwagn said: Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status None of those are rolling blackouts. Just plain old power outages for whatever reason, but not a shortage of electricity. What is a CAISO Rotating Outage? CAISO rotating outages (Stage 3 CAISO Emergencies) become necessary when the state's electricity demand outpaces available supply in real time or are unavoidable. CAISO will typically order the state's investor-owned utilities, including SCE, to reduce electrical load by turning off service immediately. A rotating outage typically lasts one hour. We manage and rotate the outage across groups of customers throughout the service territory to protect the integrity of our electric system, while limiting the inconvenience to any one customer or community. System Status: Normal https://www.sce.com/outage-center/outage-information/rotating-outages/rotating-group-number Edited June 19, 2021 by Jay McKinsey 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh June 19, 2021 (edited) http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.png?uniquenessFactor=1624071324728 On 6/15/2021 at 11:04 PM, ronwagn said: Not enough wind for the turbines? Hot air generates high pressure and kills the wind, that is not the problem. You can't fix powerplants with chewing gum and bailing wire; most are repeats from February and April. . Several plants derated because their cooling water lakes are too hot and the heat exchangers won't pull enough vacuum on the condenser.. Very typical summer wind profile. Peak at midnight and bottom at 1300-1600 and up trend as the sun goes down. Solar peaked at 7000mw when wind bottomed. They could get another 3000mw of wind if the Panhandle Loop wasn't congested. http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.html http://www.ercot.com/content/cdr/html/CURRENT_DAYCOP_HSL.png?uniquenessFactor=1624071324728 Edited June 19, 2021 by nsdp add chart 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 19, 2021 (edited) 29 minutes ago, ronwagn said: Here is a map of current outages in Southern California https://www.sce.com/outage-center/check-outage-status Did you happen to note the number of customers affected by each of those distribution system outages? It ranges from 0 to about 60... Edited June 19, 2021 by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 19, 2021 35 minutes ago, nsdp said: Several plants derated because their cooling water lakes are too hot and the heat exchangers won't pull enough vacuum on the condenser.. I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect. It's predictable. Similar with a CT. High air inlet temps causes derates. Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean). 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 19, 2021 1 minute ago, turbguy said: I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect. It's predictable. Similar with a CT. High air inlet temps causes derates. Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean). My first tech job was writing software for inlet water fogging equipment. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762 SF June 19, 2021 On 6/16/2021 at 5:26 AM, Eric Gagen said: June is traditionally the start of the cooling season in Texas, and the first major heat wave often comes by mid June. My 'back of the envelope' guess is that they didn't get their maintenance done as fast as they had projected, and are sweeping that under the rug to avoid another political inquisition. I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them. In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences." Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/ 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BenFranklin'sSpectacles + 762 SF June 19, 2021 On 6/16/2021 at 9:59 AM, Dan Clemmensen said: All true. In addition, to migigate peak summer loads, add solar (+battery) The advantage of solar is that it is most productive when the sun shines, which is also when you need the electricity. And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Clemmensen + 1,011 June 19, 2021 27 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said: And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold? For now, I plan to use whatever generators I have available from my 15% capacity reserve, starting with the most efficient and working down from there. I plan to pay for this reserve capacity by billing all my customers at a fixed percentage of their usage every month. Oh, wait, I'm not the one in charge of planning, so I guess you will need to ask ERCOT instead. Note that is still less expensive for all of us to install and use solar (+ battery) in the summer. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eric Gagen + 713 June 19, 2021 52 minutes ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said: And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold? My answer is three fold: Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards) natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home. That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly. 1 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jay McKinsey + 1,490 June 19, 2021 Just checked in on Ron's power outage link. It must suck to live downwind of Disneyland. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 19, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said: I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them. In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences." Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/ It's impossible to hide the fact that a generator has begun a derate or suddenly goes off-line. The billing systems alone will disclose that. The generator operator MUST report the facts of that occurrence to the national (or state) GADS database (Generating Availability Data System). GADS is a mandatory industry program for conventional generating units that are 20 MW and larger. Edited June 19, 2021 by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh June 20, 2021 20 hours ago, turbguy said: I don't dispute that poor vacuum (via high cooling water temp) can derate a unit. Reported seasonal capacity should be adjusted for that effect. It's predictable. Similar with a CT. High air inlet temps causes derates. Some CT's might have inlet water fogging, which can make a big difference (as long as the water is clean). Clean water Act Amendments of 1991 dropped allowable out flow temps from cooling ponds etc into waters of the US BY 5 Degrees F(its now against the law to fry your fish before you catch them) so we no longer have legitimate performance curves. Since day time temps have been 6 degrees F above normal this last week it is a real guessing game in Texas. CT's are easy. Use the ISO curve for air temps an density. Anything above 660mw is stream condenser That catches the 11 largest units. There are smaller steam units like Greens Bayou that are on because they are the biggest block of available reactive for downtown Houston. Hard to find real numbers because we have finally got a class action larger than the LoVaca Gas Gathering lawsuit from the 1970's. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Dan Clemmensen + 1,011 June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, Eric Gagen said: My answer is three fold: Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards) natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home. That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly. By that measure, heat pumps are more than 100% efficient. They provide more heat than the BTU value of the NG that was used to produce the electricity that they use. They are called "heat pumps" for a reason: they concentrate the low-temperature heat in the outside air to produce high-temperature heat in the inside air. A ground-source heat pump is even more efficient than an air-source heat pump. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh June 20, 2021 3 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said: And what, pray tell, do you plan to do when it's cold? Well if you have ever looked at wind production curves? Wind peaks in Jan and Feb at night. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh June 20, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, BenFranklin'sSpectacles said: I suppose they could be trying to avoid an inquisition, but that implies regulators hold the power in this relationship. I would argue that it's the regulators who need dispatchable power generators because the entire economy collapses without them. In recent years, dispatchable power has suffered from subsidized renewables; I imagine they're not happy about it. If there was any intent behind these events (I doubt there is, but let's suppose for the sake of argument...) I'd bet that intent is a shot across the regulatory bow: "You need dispatchable power. Protect us - or suffer the consequences." Unsurprisingly, protecting dispatchable power is precisely what regulators are doing in response to outages. Note the section of this article discussing several days of on-site fuel storage and designating "critical" facilities:https://www.powermag.com/texas-governor-enacts-grid-reliability-measures-including-power-plant-weatherization-ercot-reforms/ Let's just say the US Supreme Court killed Abbotts plans before he was even in law school. FERC v. Mississippi. 456 U.S. 742 (1982) "Insofar as § 210 authorizes the FERC to exempt qualified power facilities from state laws and regulations, it does nothing more than preempt conflicting state enactments in the traditional way. Because of the substantial interstate effect of such activity, Congress may preempt the States completely in the regulation of retail sales by electric and gas utilities and of transactions between such utilities and cogenerators. "Congress may require a state administrative body to consider proposed federal regulations as a condition to its continued involvement in a preemptible field, it may require the use of certain procedural minima during that body's deliberations on the subject." Edited June 20, 2021 by nsdp quotayion mark missing Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nsdp + 449 eh June 20, 2021 2 hours ago, turbguy said: It's impossible to hide the fact that a generator has begun a derate or suddenly goes off-line. The billing systems alone will disclose that. The generator operator MUST report the facts of that occurrence to the national (or state) GADS database (Generating Availability Data System). GADS is a mandatory industry program for conventional generating units that are 20 MW and larger. Yes they must report but that doesn't prevent them from filing "alternative facts" like gov. Abbott's claim that the February outages were renewables fault. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
footeab@yahoo.com + 2,194 June 20, 2021 4 hours ago, Eric Gagen said: My answer is three fold: Don't live somewhere that gets outrageously cold It's often quite sunny during the coldest days (not during the snowstorm of course, but afterwards) natural gas furnaces are one of THE most efficient heating mechanisms in the world - modern ones are ~95% efficient at converting the heating value of the natural gas into heat in your home. That's pretty impressive, and I for one do not encourage anyone to toss that benefit out lightly. If you installed a natural gas powered heat pump you would get 3X-->5X the heat and AC as well. Of course at this point go electric and install a solar loop for the AC side of things. Still waiting for a residential heat pump that also has a loop tap for the hot water tank. Maybe one exists. Have to admit Have not looked for a normal heat pump in 5 years. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 20, 2021 (edited) 3 hours ago, nsdp said: Yes they must report but that doesn't prevent them from filing "alternative facts" like gov. Abbott's claim that the February outages were renewables fault. Yup, you gotta trust the GADS reporting. My use of it always used a grain of salt, but it was accurate in about 90+% of reports. Typically, that reporting is performed at the secretarial level interviewing plant personnel. Sometimes it requires a "deep dive" into sequence-of-event recordings to uncover the root cause. Who'da thunk that fussing with changing resin on the secondary side of TMI2 would cascade into a meltdown? THAT was a GADS conundrum. But once you are off-line, why bother lying? Certainly plant management wants the truth. If it's operator error, or you had a boiler tube leak, or lost a feedpump, or suffered a Main Transformer fault, who really cares about lying? What does it get you? UNLESS there is some Enron-style manipulation... Edited June 20, 2021 by turbguy Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Boat + 1,324 RG June 20, 2021 One thing we don’t discuss much is growing demand in Texas. In the last decade consumption is up 20%. So a huge market is growing very fast. One of the reasons electricity is fairly cheap in Texas is it’s decision to run a lower margin of safety capacity over consumption. For the most part that strategy has been successful except for 2 large storms 10 years apart. This new heat wave consumption seems more preventable that could easily be solved by more solar and accompanying transmission lines at very competitive prices. But baseline consumption from growth and population probably needs further addition in nat gas. Since Texas has great wind at a cheap price they can afford expansion in battery storage also. Personally I blame Gov Abbot and politics for Texas grid problems. Up the capacity a few percent using home grown wind, solar and nat gas and of course pay attention to massive growth in market. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
KeyboardWarrior + 527 June 20, 2021 On 6/15/2021 at 10:44 PM, turbguy said: If you can generate power using zero fuel, zero water, zero treatment chemistry, and infinitesimal operating emissions, that would be too good to be true, eh? Zero fuel doesn't justify a capex that yields 3% returns Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
turbguy + 1,547 June 20, 2021 (edited) 46 minutes ago, KeyboardWarrior said: Zero fuel doesn't justify a capex that yields 3% returns If the full extent of externalities of fossil fuels were properly recognized, capex would mean sh*t. Remember that "some things are not for sale". I can name PLENTY! That said, fossil fuels ain't going away for quite a while. Edited June 20, 2021 by turbguy 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites