Iran's oil production rises: the hope of reviving the JCPOA is alive!

[hemanthaa@mail.com + 64]

Iranian oil productions continue unabated despite the severe US-led sanctions. In spite of the rhetoric to the contrary, it’s a sign that the Iranians are hopeful of reviving the JCPOA in the coming months, as the status-quo is not sustainable in the long run.

More on that is here:

[Sebastian Meana + 278]

Well when they sanction a country and they cant use the US dollar or the Euro or any hard FIAT currency for trading good and services they will use something else, like a certain metal that is used as money since 4000 years ago, that is hard to extract has a yellow bright colour, is soft, and can be found along copper.

[Ward Smith + 6,615]

On 8/22/2021 at 4:57 AM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

Iranian oil productions continue unabated despite the severe US-led sanctions. In spite of the rhetoric to the contrary, it’s a sign that the Iranians are hopeful of reviving the JCPOA in the coming months, as the status-quo is not sustainable in the long run.

More on that is here:

That graph is clearly wrong. Perhaps the 1.936 belongs in 2019?

[hemanthaa@mail.com + 64]

No, it's right. In 2020, the production dropped in Iran, along with the rest of the world, due to the pandemic. Well, apart from the OPEC+, we have to rely on the secondary sources for the true scale of production  - for obvious reasons!

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

16 minutes ago, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

No, it's right. In 2020, the production dropped in Iran, along with the rest of the world, due to the pandemic. Well, apart from the OPEC+, we have to rely on the secondary sources for the true scale of production  - for obvious reasons!

The numbers may be correct but the graph most definitely is wrong in that case.

It shouldn't be an "S" curve graph, it should be a "V" shape 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

The numbers may be correct but the graph most definitely is wrong in that case.

It shouldn't be an "S" curve graph, it should be a "V" shape 

It’s not really a ‘graph’ in the mathematical sense it’s a ‘graph shaped infographic’

All that said I would hardly call 2.5 mmbopd ‘unabated’ for Iranian production.  They can and have it 4 million easily and might be able to sustain 5 of it weren’t for various sanctions and places that won’t buy and trade with them. 

[Rob Plant + 2,616]

4 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

It’s not really a ‘graph’ in the mathematical sense it’s a ‘graph shaped infographic’

pedantic

[Eric Gagen + 713]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

pedantic

Yes. It’s also that.  🤩
 

my original comment was meant to be sarcasm. 

Edited August 27, 2021 by Eric Gagen

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well this is a final result of 40 years of US sanctions on Iran

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran–China_25-year_Cooperation_Program

And this is a result of US policy after 1991 against Russia

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/18/op-ed-china-russia-cooperation-could-be-bidens-biggest-challenge.html

So we will probably have alliance of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and maybe Turkey.

Good luck with that because this is a block 10 times more powerful than former Eastern Block and this is a direct result of US diplomacy,

 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

5 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

So we will probably have alliance of Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran and maybe Turkey.

Good luck with that because this is a block 10 times more powerful than former Eastern Block and this is a direct result of US diplomacy,

 

Agree about US diplomacy, or lack there of. Russia, China and Pakistan in a loose 'alliance' makes sense to a degree. Iran and Turkey in the same bunch is problematic to say the least. Both Turkey and Iran believe they should lead the Islamic world. Hard to see how they stay allied when they both want to occupy a spot only one can occupy at a time.

The other thing is none of these countries outside Pakistan is anything close to a natural fit with the others you have listed. All the US has to do is stop with the detrimental diplomacy it's currently engaged in. The natural rivalries between these states will then come back to the surface and these alliances of opportunity will disintegrate.

The US has alliances based on a varying amount of common trust, values, economics and nostalgia. That's more of less the four legs that hold up the US alliance stool, IMO.  While the countries you have listed have economic interests together they don't share any other common ties other than antipathy toward the US. There is zero trust between any of these nations, a minimal amount of trust is necessary for any alliance between nations to work 

That's not a real alliance and it'll fall apart once the antipathy toward the US fades, and eventually it will. The US won't bumble and fumble forever.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

In my opinion, the USA has gone to its senses in recent years after all. USA closes unnecessary conflicts - Afghanistan and Iran and softens relations with Russia. It puts everything on a conflict with China and IMHO its only sensible policy.

Americans in general have very good diplomacy only after the collapse of the USSR they got neoliberal giddiness from their successes and exaggerated its sphere of infuences. Now I read Henry Kissinger Diplomacy  - fascinating lecture I must say.

By the way, some people wonder why Russia has good diplomacy despite its weak cards. In 1723, Tsar Peter I, the founder of the modern Russian empire, founded the Tsarist Diplomatic Academy which, despite the Bolshevik revolution, maintains institutional continuity to this day in the form of a university called MGiMO or sometimes the Russian Oxford.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moscow_State_Institute_of_International_Relations

 As for Turkey, Erdogan generally conducts an absurd economic policy - I advise you to look at the USDTRN rate (Turkish lira) for the last 10 years, say - no comment is required

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,131]

53 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

 As for Turkey, Erdogan generally conducts an absurd economic policy - I advise you to look at the USDTRN rate (Turkish lira) for the last 10 years, say - no comment is required

Happens when Turkey prints money faster than they can cut trees to print it on.