Monday 9/13 - "High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year" by Irina Slav

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"What On Earth Is Going On In Commodities?"- Morgan Stanley Explains

...Take the current situation: global coal consumption peaked back in 2013, yet the price of thermal coal is currently close to its all-time high, having more than doubled in the last few months to ~US$180/tonne. The same has happened to liquefied natural gas (LNG), which has rallied from ~US$7 to ~US$20/mmbtu over the last few months – also an all-time high. European natural gas prices have risen in tandem, which in turn has driven a sharp spike in electricity prices: day-ahead prices across continental Europe have gone from ~€50 to ~€150/MWh – you guessed it, an all-time high. As a knock-on effect, aluminum prices have soared, from US$2,000/tonne at the start of the year to US$2,900/tonne today...

...This is unusual, especially because the global economy has yet to recovery fully from the COVID-19 crisis. So what is going on? A common set of factors ties these rallies together. As often happens, the story starts in China....

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With the high NatGas prices during this season, we all know that every small producer will be selling all they can. NatGas Inventory levels should rise rapidly if some of these outfits are quick on their feet.

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Washington's Attack On Oil And Gas May Backfire

By Irina Slav - Sep 20, 2021, 3:00 PM CDT

That the Biden administration and the Democratic-majority Congress have set their sights on the oil and gas industry as the ultimate culprit behind a changing climate was clear even before last year’s elections. Now, it seems, Washington is doubling down on its promise to crack down on oil and gas in any way possible. But the move may backfire badly.

Last week, the House Oversight Committee wrote to the executives of the biggest oil companies operating in the United States along with the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to inform them that it is now investigating these companies for disinformation on climate change. The letter also called on the executives to appear in Congress next month to testify on the issue.

“We are deeply concerned that the fossil fuel industry has reaped massive profits for decades while contributing to climate change that is devastating American communities, costing taxpayers billions of dollars, and ravaging the natural world,” the committee wrote.

“We are also concerned that to protect those profits, the industry has reportedly led a coordinated effort to spread disinformation to mislead the public and prevent crucial action to address climate change.”

The letter cites a number of news reports from outlets such as The Guardian, Mother Jones, the New York Times, and Inside Climate News, largely summarizing the information in these reports and stating quite plainly that it is going after Big Oil for spreading disinformation and hiding facts about climate change.

Now, a House Committee hearing is certainly not the end of the world for any of the companies summoned, although the authors of the letter note that their main target is Exxon. However, the news about the summons comes soon after it became clear that the new Democrat plan to decarbonize the grid has excluded natural gas as a clean energy source. In fact, the plan will penalize electricity suppliers that use natural gas to generate power while rewarding those who generate it from renewable sources.

That is not all, however.

Last week, a group of progressive Democrats introduced a bill that seeks to ban U.S. banks from funding fossil fuel projects from 2030 onwards. Called the Fossil Free Finance Act, the legislation would mandate the Federal Reserve to require all banks with more than $50 billion in assets and all non-bank systemically important financial institutions to reduce their financing of polluting industries by 50 percent by 2030 and by 100 percent by 2050. Fossil fuel financing, under the bill, should end by 2030.

“For too long, our federal government has looked the other way while our nation’s largest banks bankroll the dirtiest fossil fuel projects, exacerbating the climate crisis and setting us up for a massive, climate-induced economic collapse. That must change,” said Rep. Ayanna Pressley, one of the sponsors of the bill.

Now, these are all bills and plans that may never see the light of day as actual laws. Given the Democrats’ own internal divisions along energy lines, it is highly unlikely that the last bill will ever become law. However, the direction that Congress is headed with regard to energy may, based on the latest events in Europe, be a bit unwise.

What we are currently seeing in much of Europe, notably the UK, is a large-scale case of putting the cart before the horse. The UK is currently in the throes of a major energy crisis as gas prices have tripled since the start of the year and the country’s wind capacity has been underperforming recently, causing an electricity crunch that has sent electricity bills much higher than anyone is comfortable with. Earlier this month, the UK was even forced to reopen a coal power plant to supplant its gas-fired generation and whatever wind and biomass could generate.

In other words, the U.S. has the chance to see how not to do the energy transition and learn from it. Instead, its legislative majority is doubling down on its plans for rapid decarbonization that could affect the local oil and gas industry severely, leaving the world’s top consumer more dependent on energy imports. Given the size of U.S. oil and gas reserves, this would be ironic at best and ridiculous at worst.

Right now, both the Biden administration and Democrats in Congress are prioritizing the fast electrification of the U.S. economy while at the same time decarbonizing the electric grid. This will likely include the shutting down of coal and gas-fired power generation capacity, just like it did in the UK. It will also mean a massive increase in wind and solar generating capacity. All it would take to compromise all this capacity would be a few days of low winds or a heatwave.

The current situation in Europe is a great lesson in how not to do it when it comes to decarbonization. Yet, for a lesson to be useful, someone needs to pay attention to it.

By Irina Slav for

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Edited by Tom Nolan
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Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) and its partners vowed to ramp up gas production at the Oseberg and Troll fields, by 1bcm per year each, to produce more natural gas for the undersupplied European market.

Energy crisis: Soaring gas prices may not be temporary and more suppliers could go bust, Ofgem chief warns

Edited by Rob Plant
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Citi: Very Cold Winter Could Send LNG Prices To $100/MMBtu

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 23, 2021, 10:00 AM CDT

The price of liquefied natural gas (LNG) could jump to as high as $100 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) if particularly frigid winter weather combines with the tight markets that have sent natural gas prices surging, Citigroup said on Thursday.

“Global natural gas prices could continue to go parabolic in the coming weeks and months,” Citi analysts wrote in a note carried by Bloomberg.

“Strong demand and a lack of supply response have sharply tightened the market. Any surprise demand surge or supply disruptions could propel price further upward,” the investment bank notes.

LNG prices for November delivery to Asia are currently at around $25/MMBtua record high for this time of the year. In Europe, the surge in gas prices by 280 percent so far this year has also pushed the European benchmark at the TTF hub to some $25/MMBtu.

In its note, Citi more than doubled its base cases for the average prices for Asia’s JKM price of LNG and for the TTF European benchmark in the fourth quarter.

The new base case for Asia’s gas price is now $28.80/MMBtu for the fourth quarter, up from the previous $13.90/MMBtu. Citi’s new base case for the European benchmark price is $27.70/MMBtu, up from $12.90/MMBtu.

The U.S. natural gas benchmark, the Henry Hub, will average $6/MMBtu in the fourth quarter, according to Citi’s new base case, compared to $3.90/MMBtu in the previous base case.

Citi’s new estimates for Q4 are slightly higher than the current prices of gas and LNG in all three regions.

However, in case of a severely cold winter, prices could spike and LNG cargoes could trade for $100/MMBtu at times, according to the bank.

Citi, like other analysts and OPEC, believes that the surge in natural gas prices will boost demand for other fuels as utilities would look to switch to alternatives. The ripple effect of this gas-to-other fuels-switch is likely to be wider than initial forecasts had it, according to Citi.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

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An Unstoppable Natural Gas Rally

By Editorial Dept - Sep 24, 2021, 1:30 PM CDT


1. Oil Supply Disruptions Set To Ease

- With September seeing crude supply disruptions across continents, the upcoming months should bring most of that idled capacity back, also boosted by the end of field maintenance in Kazakhstan and Canada.

- Russia’s condensate supply was derailed by an August explosion at Gazprom’s condensate treatment plant, whilst Nigerian exports were hindered by oil spills and pipeline attacks.

- Shell, the main producer in the US Gulf of Mexico, indicated that repairing the West Delta-143 platform will take at least several months, shaving off some 250,000 b/d of production over Q4 2021.

- More than 16% of US Gulf of Mexico production is still shut-in, equivalent to almost 300,000 b/d as the pace of restoring output has weakened substantially this week.

2. Gas Prices Continue Their Insane Run....


- Europe’s benchmark TTF pricing has netted another all-time high this week, with front-month ICE prices reaching €75 per MWh ($25 per mmBtu) this Monday, before dipping closer to the €70 per MWh threshold.

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New Grid Standards Set To Prevent A Texas Freeze Repeat

By Charles Kennedy - Sep 24, 2021, 10:30 AM CDT

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission and the North American Electric Reliability Corp have devised and issued a set of new grid reliability standards to avoid a repeat of the Texas Freeze that left millions without power and heating amid a cold spell and saddled thousands with massive electricity bills.

"I cannot, and will not allow this to become yet another report that serves no purpose other than to gather dust on the shelf," said Rich Glick, chairman of the FERC, as quoted by Reuters.

Among the new requirements is one that should see utilities identify and take steps to protect cold-weather critical components of the grid, build new units, or retrofit existing ones to be able to withstand extreme weather, and prepare plans for handling freeze-related outages.

The Texas Freeze, which was the result of a Polar vortex that froze swathes of the U.S. but hit the Lone Star State the hardest, caused power outages because power plants simply froze as their operators had not weatherized them. It also caused a shortage of electricity because many gas wells that supply the commodity to the plants also froze. The cold spell resulted in the biggest drop in U.S. oil production, too, at 40 percent of the nation's total.

As a result of all these outages and shortages, at one point as many as 2 million Texans were without power, gas prices hit record highs on the wholesale market, and ERCOT resorted to rolling blackouts.

The new standards by the FERC and NERC are supposed to help prevent this from happening again. FERC does not have jurisdiction over ERCOT—the Texas grid operator—but NERC does have jurisdiction when it comes to reliability matters.

Texas is working to prevent another Freeze, too, which many blamed on the fact that the Texas grid is isolated from the national grid, which made it extra vulnerable to the effects of extreme weather.

By Charles Kennedy for

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Gazprom: We're Not Withholding Gas To Europe

By Charles Kennedy - Sep 24, 2021, 11:00 AM CDT

Russian gas giant Gazprom dismisses speculation and accusations that it is not supplying enough natural gas via pipeline to Europe, a senior official at Gazprom Export says.

So far in 2021, Gazprom’s gas deliveries to Europe have reached historic highs, Sergey Komlev, Head of the Contract Structuring and Pricing Directorate at Gazprom Export, wrote in an article for Gazprom’s corporate magazine, as carried by Russian news agency TASS.

Germany, Turkey, and Italy—some of Gazprom’s largest customers—all boosted imports of Russian gas in the first half of 2021, the manager said.

Gazprom’s exports to European countries rose by 23.2 percent between January and July, Komlev added.

“These figures prove the absurdity of accusing Gazprom of supply shortage,” the executive noted.

Europe is grappling with soaring natural gas and electricity prices ahead of the winter heating season due to tight gas supplies, very low gas inventories, and low wind power generation amid still weather.

More than 40 members of the European Parliament from all political groups have reportedly urged the European Commission to launch an investigation into Gazprom over alleged market manipulation that could have contributed to the record-high natural gas prices in Europe. 

During the summer, even with the strong rebound in European natural gas demand and surging prices, Gazprom did not book additional entry capacity to Europe via Ukraine.

Analysts say that this could have been an opportunistic move from the Russian giant to drive up Europe’s gas prices further and take advantage of the very high prices. Other analysts think that Gazprom’s effective reduction in supplies would force Europe to recognize that gas customers on the continent need the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany bypassing Ukraine.

Earlier this month, Gazprom said it had completed the construction of Nord Stream 2, although gas flows on the Russia-led pipeline cannot begin until Germany grants an operating license to the project.

Germany’s federal networks regulator BNA said last week it would decide no later than January 8, 2022, whether it will certify Nord Stream 2 and issue an operating license for the pipeline.

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50-Fold Jump In Power Rates Hits UK Metal, Mining Sector

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 24, 2021, 1:30 PM CDT

Soaring power prices amid Europe’s gas crunch will have a lasting impact on the bottom lines of mining and metal companies as prices in their long-term electricity supply contracts will increase, an executive at a Swedish metals producer told Bloomberg on Friday.

“Contracts will have to be renewed sooner or later. However they are written, you will eventually get hurt because of the situation in the market,” Mats Gustavsson, vice president for energy at Sweden’s metals producer Boliden, told Bloomberg in an interview.

“If you are exposed to the market, the operational expenses have of course increased,” Gustavsson said.

As companies mining and processing metals are looking to cut their carbon footprint, they electrify some processes and use more electricity. However, soaring electricity prices will hike their operating costs, diminishing profit margins.

The price spikes and volatility are here to stay, according to Boliden’s Gustavsson, who says that metal producers may have to contend with higher power prices for longer.

The metals sector is the latest in the heavy industry to suffer from the surging natural gas and power prices in Europe. The price spikes have already started to hit industrial activities, threatening to deal a blow to the post-COVID recovery in Europe.

Giant European firms, from chemicals and mining to the food sector, say sky-high gas and electricity prices are hitting their profit margins and forcing some of them to curtail operations.

Some factories have shut down because of record natural gas prices. More idling of industrial activity across Europe is likely in the coming weeks, analysts say. 

Earlier this week, British Steel, the second-largest steel producer in the UK, warned that electricity prices are “spiralling out of control,” and a 50-fold jump in quoted power rates makes production unprofitable at certain times in the UK, the Financial Times reported.  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

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Europe Must Act To Avert An Energy Crisis This Winter

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Sep 26, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT

With natural gas storage levels at a 10-year low just ahead of the winter heating season, Europe is facing hard choices from its limited range of options to alleviate the gas crisis.  Governments across Europe have pledged to protect the most vulnerable consumers, as soaring gas and electricity prices are hot potatoes that no ruling party or coalition wants to encounter. But the energy price spike is here, and it could worsen as we enter the heating season in the northern hemisphere between November and March.  

European governments have already announced moves to protect consumers from energy price spikes, including through the energy price cap that has been and will continue to be in place in the UK and a temporary tax cut on power prices in Spain. 

Protecting select consumer groups from price hikes, however, would put more pressure on other gas and power consumers, including industry, Reuters columnist John Kemp notes. If European countries let gas and energy prices rise moderately from already record levels, this would trigger demand destruction, easing the very tight gas market, Kemp argues. 

However, many European leaders are unwilling to let consumers (voters) feel the heat of soaring energy bills this winter. 

Moreover, demand destruction has already started. But it’s not coming from household energy consumption—it comes from electricity producers and from heavy industry. 

Utilities are using more coal and other fuels—where possible—to generate electricity at the expense of natural gas. Increased use of coal-fired power in the electricity mix is in direct conflict with the ambitions of the European Union (EU) and the UK to reach net-zero emissions by 2050.  

Sweden, one of the EU members with the greenest electricity mix in the bloc—with hydroelectric, nuclear, and wind power dominant—has seen the Karlshamn fuel oil power plant running in recent weeks due to the record power prices, although there are no shortages of electricity in the country.

The UK, which has pledged to phase out coal-fired power generation by October 2024, had to fire up earlier this month an old coal plant that was on standby in order to meet its electricity demand. 

So far this month, the share of coal in Britain’s electricity mix—albeit below 3 percent—has been more than double compared to the below-1-percent share in September 2020. 

UK power company Drax could have its last two coal-fired plants in the country operating beyond the 2022 deadline that it had set for closure if the government asks it to keep them operational amid the energy crisis, Drax’s CEO Will Gardiner told the Financial Times this week.

Related: Bearish Hedge Fund Manager: ‘Nothing Can Save Oil’

Demand destruction in the industry is also underway. Industries across Europe are scaling back operations due to record natural gas and power prices, threatening to deal a blow to the post-COVID recovery. 

Fertilizer and ammonia production in Europe has been curtailed as “downstream European gas markets suffered further financial pain with new record spot gas highs” this week, Ben Samuel at Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) noted on Thursday. 

CF Industries, a manufacturer of hydrogen and nitrogen products, said last week that it was halting operations at both its Billingham and Ince manufacturing complexes in the UK due to high natural gas prices. 

The Billingham plant makes carbon dioxide (CO2)—an essential supply to the food sector. So, the UK government secured a short-term deal with the company, which produces 60 percent of the UK’s CO2, to ensure the continued supply to businesses. 

“Industrial shutdowns will reduce demand, helping limit further upside to prices. Switching from gas to coal in the European power mix also cuts gas demand, but this can then be counter-balanced by increased emissions prices that prompt switching back to gas,” ICIS’s Alex Froley wrote this week. 

The gas crunch and price spike showed once again that Europe—and everyone pushing for ‘no more fossil fuels ASAP’—should consider market realities before indulging in ‘100-percent renewables’ fantasies. 

The International Energy Agency (IEA)—which has suggested that a net-zero by 2050 world wouldn’t need new oil and gas investment after 2021—said this week, commenting on the surging gas and power price:

“The links between electricity and gas markets are not going to go away anytime soon. Gas remains an important tool for balancing electricity markets in many regions today.”  

By Tsvetana Paraskova for

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Sunday, Sep 26, 2021 - 02:00 PM  - Zero Hedge - by Tyler Durden

By Ryan Fitzmaurice, Senior Commodity Strategist, Elwin de Groot, Head of Macro Strategy and Hugo Erken, Head RR Economic Scenarios & Projections at Rabobank

“Everything is energy and that's all there is to it. Match the frequency of the reality you want and you cannot help but get that reality […]” — Albert Einstein

“Jumpin’ Jack Flash, it’s a gas, gas, gas” — Rolling Stones


  • US and European natural gas prices have jumped to multi-year highs; to the extent that comparisons with the 1970’s oil crises are perhaps not as far-fetched as some would think
  • In this piece we look at the causes behind this development and explain that structural shifts in the market probably better fit the story than the “just a market fad” explanation
  • Various other markets – outside energy – such as fertilizers and ethanol production could be affected by structurally higher gas prices, adding to the host of supply-chain disruptions that businesses are dealing with
  • Moreover, if sustained – and this is obviously very weather/geopolitics-dependent – US and particularly European households could be in a for an expensive winter, as inventory levels are at multi-year lows
  • More than in the past, governments may be keen to soften the blow to households, although this would obviously have implications for budgets



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U.S. Arrests Senior Russian LNG Executive For Tax Fraud

By Irina Slav - Sep 24, 2021, 9:00 AM CDT

The U.S. Department of Justice has arrested the chief financial officer of Novatek, Russia’s largest private gas company and biggest LNG exporter, on charges of tax fraud.

In a statement, the DoJ said that Mark Gyetvay had engaged in a scheme to defraud the United States by hiding his ownership of sizeable offshore assets—a sum of about $93 million—and had also failed to file tax returns and pay taxes “on millions of dollars of income.”

According to the DoJ, Gyetvay engaged in the concealment practice after he became the chief financial officer of Novatek, upon which he was allegedly presented with “lucrative stock options and/or stock-based compensation”.


Gyetvay then proceeded to set up two Swiss bank accounts, according to the DoJ allegations, where he put these assets and then removed himself as the owner of the accounts by transferring ownership to his then-wife, who was a Russian citizen.

In addition to this asset concealment, Gyetvay also “allegedly did not timely file his U.S. tax returns, nor did he file all of the required Reports of Foreign Bank and Financial Accounts (FBARs) forms certain U.S. taxpayers are required to file annually that disclose their control over assets maintained in foreign bank accounts.”

On top of that, according to the allegations, some of the taxes that Gyetvay did file were false. He also allegedly submitted a false offshore compliance form with the U.S. tax authorities, saying that his former failure to submit the forms relevant to holdings in foreign banks had not been wilful.

According to a report in the Financial Times, Mark Gyetvay, who helped expand Novatek into the LNG export major it is today, is one of the most popular business executives in Russia and internationally in the oil and gas industry. If found guilty, he faces decades in prison.

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U.S. Shale Is Finally Ready To Drill

By Irina Slav - Sep 24, 2021, 6:00 PM CDT

U.S. shale producers have behaved in an exemplary way in the past year. It wasn’t something the industry wanted to do. It was something it was forced to do by the pandemic and by its shareholders, who after years of waiting for windfalls put their foot down and demanded higher returns.  But it just might be time for a change.

U.S. shale must by now be used to the price shocks. Even so, the pandemic-driven destruction of demand for crude must have hurt. On top of that pain, the large public shale producers had many unhappy shareholders to deal with. They dealt with them by cutting spending, slashing production, and focusing on cash flow generation.

They largely did it with some help from OPEC+, which cut an unprecedented 7.7 million bpd from its combined production, and some non-OPEC producers that stepped in to shoulder part of the burden. Since then, demand has recovered, and so have prices. All eyes have been on U.S. shale for months now, expecting drillers to start ramping up drilling in a major way. So far, the industry has defied expectations. But it seems this won’t continue for much longer.

U.S. crude oil production is set to rise by 800,000 bpd next year, the Financial Times reported this week. This is hardly surprising given that U.S. oil prices are around $70 per barrel now, making most shale wells profitable again, the report notes. But there is one interesting thing that is different this time. According to an IHS Markit analyst, it would be private independent drillers that will lead the charge this time.

As interesting as this forecast is, it is hardly surprising. Even before the pandemic struck, disgruntled shareholders were the talk of the town in shale oil. Years of burning cash to boost production just so the United States could become the largest oil producer in the world never made sense with shareholders who bought into Pioneer Natural Resources, Devon Energy, and Continental Resources. They bought into these companies and their public peers for the dividends.

So when these dividends did not come in the size shareholders expected, disgruntlement grew. It also coincided with the growing popularity of the energy transition narrative sparking worry that shale oil bets were becoming increasingly unsafe in a changing energy world. So the public shale drillers had one option left: begin to deliver.

They have been doing this for a while now. As Reuters recently reported, the large shale players have been boosting dividends and adding to them things like variable distributions and share buybacks to keep shareholders on board while also taking active steps to reduce their debt load - a major cause for worry among shale investors.

So, public shale drillers have been pampering shareholders after years of disappointments and even now continue to be at risk of a backlash if they start drilling more. This, however, they will need to do soon as the inventory of drilled but uncompleted wells shrinks amid the return of demand. Shale drillers, therefore, would need to raise spending to keep their output at current levels.

Meanwhile, small private drillers have hung on by the skin of their teeth until the worst of the pandemic crisis blew over. Now that this is behind them, their hands are untied to ramp up production as much as they like. Private drillers have no shareholders to report to. Their only concern is the market. If there is enough demand to push prices to a profitable level, then these companies will drill and pump more oil. And the outlook for demand is quite rosy.

No wonder then that, according to IHS Markit’s Raoul LeBlanc, those private shale oil independents are set to account for more than half of the expected increase in U.S. crude oil production next year. That’s up from 20 percent in any other year, the FT quoted LeBlanc as noting.

“The privates are not on board with this whole capital discipline thing. For them, this is their window,” the IHS Markit analyst told the FT. “They’re thinking, ‘here’s my chance and I’m going to take advantage of it’ because they see it as maybe their last, best chance.”

In January, when prices were on the rebound and WTI was trading at around $50, one Wood Mac analyst called it a siren song - the price recovery that was expected to switch U.S. shale producers to a growth mode again and pressure prices. This did not happen because of the majors’ newfound capital discipline. Yet small producers are a lot more flexible since they don’t have shareholders to keep happy. And they could become a downside risk for prices before too long.

A lot of shale oil became profitable at prices around $50. At $20 over that, most shale oil is profitable. No one could possibly blame private independents for grabbing the chance to monetize their oil assets, not with the long-term forecasts - although these are rather wishes than forecasts - about the end of the oil era.

By Irina Slav of

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On 9/21/2021 at 2:47 AM, Tom Nolan said:

Is Gazprom About To Lose Its Natural Gas Export Monopoly?

By Vanand Meliksetian - Sep 20, 2021, 2:00 PM CDT

Yeap. Because its benefficial both for Gazprom. Rosneft and russian state at the some time. So done deal. 10 bilion cubic meters from Rosneft to Western Europe through NS II.

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