ronwagn

Europeans and Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewables.

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On 10/11/2021 at 2:03 PM, Starschy said:

In Yakutia everything must be in Place end of September for the next five Months.

Trucks are not safe enough in that Region.

Trucks are safe for at least 8 months, in summer and in winter.   When the snows starts to melt and ice gets cracking, perfectly safe winter roads change into traps that can swallow huge tracks, and with the onset of snow, you must wait until the ice on river crossing is sufficiently thick.  Of course, it is much cheaper to use river barges, but mines located far from rivers depend on winter trucking -- the same in northern Canada.  BTW, the season to use barges lasts 4 months or shorter, so those supplies should tidy you for at least 8 months.

 

 

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Meanwhile, the solar panels on my roof are saddling me with a whopping $15 a month "service fee" for my electric use which INCLUDES charging my Tesla. Feel free to keep lapping up the fossil fuel industry FUD about renewables. Myself, I'll continue to enjoy utilizing the free energy the sun pours down on me every day. I suspect if that stops, energy prices will be the least of my worries.

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I give you a hint how realistic those US and European plans are.

Two Gazprom Companies got the job till 2030 to add 24000 km Gaspipelines in inner Russia.

Who is using that Gas? Russia plans as example with two new Cities in Sibiria with 1 Mio. Residents. One of the City is outside Novosibirsk.

This year Gazprom Companies laid 1400 km Pipelines in Russia alone.

Hello, obviously all mathematical precision work leads to that solution. 

IEA means triple all renewable Energy projects. Thats not even remote possible. Those Workers are not in sight. Not to mention the Salaries.

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On 10/12/2021 at 2:34 PM, Wombat One said:

If only it were that simple. The whole reason that India and China have no coal stockpiled is because they thought the price would keep falling and somehow suppliers would still supply? Same is true for oil and gas. No country is willing to pay a fair price so there is a lack of investment. Then the price skyrockets and producers get greedy and over-invest, which crushes the price again.... and so the cycle repeats. But when you have major economic events such as the GFC and covid, this complicates the cycle and distorts it further, making investment decisions nigh impossible. My point is, it is similar for electricity grids. Power producers that rely on coal don't even bother to stockpile it, prefer "just-in-time" delivery, and fossil fuels become just as unreliable as renewable energy when poorly managed? Whether it is the queues for petrol in the UK, or the sky-high prices for coal and LNG around the planet right now, clearly nobody is interested in paying the cost of something simple to store like coal, let alone more expensive to store things like natural gas, or even electricity in batteries or as pumped hydro? That is a market failure and a failure of government IMHO. Governments set the rules. In China, they have just realised that electricity prices must rise so that power companies can actually make a profit. Otherwise, there is no incentive to keep the lights on. Governments around the world have been trying to suppress energy prices and have been sending both utilitiy companies and coal, oil, and gas companies to the wall. Very stupid of them and now everybody is paying the price. They ain't seen nothing yet.

The transmission regulator should set a requirement to keep X amount of fuel or back up fuel in stock at each power station. 

In the case of Gas - that can be fuel distillates which are normally stored as a back up. 

Coal is easy enough to pile up. Thats what the UK's power stationed used to do - stock up over summer. 

 

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On 9/21/2021 at 1:43 AM, Sebastian Meana said:

He may not be able to, but i can. You see, there are subsidies in the US at federal, state, and county levels, and nevermind that government is as good as making new subsidies as is it masking inflation and unemployment numbers, plus many fully renewable energy companies, declare itself as small companies or fully private ones in order to not show accountance, thing like the company revenue and the GWh generated.

Electrify2Renewables.024.jpeg?fit=1920%2

Electrify2Renewables.030.jpeg?fit=1920%2
https://i0.wp.com/electrifyingourworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Electrify2Renewables.031.jpeg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1
Electrify2Renewables.039.jpeg?fit=1920%2



Whatever lazard says, or whatever renewable energy portals say when they go full Soyface doesn't have any value.

Lazard is not an audit office, is a sell-side analysis company, they get paid to sell stocks.

Rosatom got a revenue of around 20U$D/MWh
South Texas Project NPP is around 29U$D/MWh
TVA has a revenue of 70U$D/MWh, and most traditional electric utilities are around 100U$D/MWh
Avangrid has a revenue of 540U$D/MWh
Orsted has a revenue of 390U$D/MWh
¿Where you think that money is coming from?, is either taxes or subsidies
just chek renewable energy credit auctions in new jersey at over 200U$D/MWh


𝐈'𝐦 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐢𝐦 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐛𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬
 

Finally, Haaland and Biden are going to follow the law and allow leasing on federal lands.  They fought that Judge's order in Louisiana and for all intents and purposes just gave him the finger and haven't put a competitive lease sale together this year and it looks like they'll just break the law as usual.

But yesterday, Biden and Haaland finally came through!  Oh wait, they aren't really leasing to increase our oil and gas supply to help eliminate high energy costs, here's the blind ambition of the Administration to head down the zero emissions path to the inevitable conclusion of unreliable, massive eco-trash land fills, and the expected and unrelenting blackouts.  

Biden administration plans wind farms along nearly the entire U.S. coastline

Interior Secretary Deb Haaland announced that her agency will formally begin the process of identifying federal waters to lease to wind developers by 2025.

 

 

 

 

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On 9/21/2021 at 1:43 AM, Sebastian Meana said:

He may not be able to, but i can. You see, there are subsidies in the US at federal, state, and county levels, and nevermind that government is as good as making new subsidies as is it masking inflation and unemployment numbers, plus many fully renewable energy companies, declare itself as small companies or fully private ones in order to not show accountance, thing like the company revenue and the GWh generated.

Electrify2Renewables.024.jpeg?fit=1920%2

Electrify2Renewables.030.jpeg?fit=1920%2
https://i0.wp.com/electrifyingourworld.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Electrify2Renewables.031.jpeg?resize=1024%2C576&ssl=1
Electrify2Renewables.039.jpeg?fit=1920%2

𝐈'𝐦 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐬𝐜𝐨𝐟𝐟𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐨𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐨𝐟 𝐫𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐰𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐫𝐠𝐲, 𝐢𝐦 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐨𝐛𝐯𝐢𝐨𝐮𝐬


 

The mention of Block Island made me check back to the status of the first (and only) US offshore wind turbines off Rhode Island.  Block Island went into operation 5 years ago.  In January, problems started to occur.  The latest around RI news came from a reporter who was trying to find out what happened at Block Island to shut down 4 of the turbines.  This is part of what he found:

 

For a while, warning flags were placed on the main swimming beaches on Block Island, where the cable was becoming exposed. Yikes.

More troubling, the reburying of the cable, which was supposed to happen in the spring, has been postponed because of engineering problems, and who knows what the final cost and solution might be.

The last estimate to rebury the cable was $30 million, to be passed on to electric customers, but that was released before the new problems were disclosed in the spring.

I can understand why Ørsted and the other wind company contenders jockeying for new development up and down the Eastern Seaboard might be worried about bad press for the Block Island system, given the growing opposition to wind farms from the fishing industry, consumer activists and coastal communities where cables are proposed to come ashore.

And that makes me surprised at the poor response I got from Ørsted when asking about Block Island.

 

 

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(edited)

one of the Main issues is Gas Storage

Germany 47 Storage Units in 33 Locations with a volume 24 Bio. m3 covers about 6 Months.

Uk = 5% of the German Volume max. meaning by far not enough. Annual volume 80 Bio m3 should be around 40 Bio. m3 for an adequate reserve.

 

Guardian: Uk Gas storage relying on luck

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/sep/24/how-uk-energy-policies-have-left-britain-exposed-to-winter-gas-price-hikes

Edited by Starschy
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The sad part is governments and radicals cause so much pain.

I have no doubt that our energy needs will all be met by renewables by 2200. Likewise, most cars will be EV's. We should let the market get us from here to there; it is the most efficient. I look forward to that day (for my descendants.)

It is sad that we have all these people who think they are gods who demand this route or that route.

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(edited)

Quote

According to preliminary data, Gazprom produced 378.1 billion cubic meters of gas in January–September of 2021, which is 17.3 per cent (or 55.7 billion cubic meters) more than in the same period of last year.

Gazprom ramped up its domestic supplies from the gas transmission system by 15.9 per cent (or by 23.9 billion cubic meters) over said period of 2021.

The Company increased its gas exports to the countries beyond the FSU to 145.8 billion cubic meters, which is the second-highest amount for nine months in the entire history of supplies (compared to 149.2 billion cubic meters in 2018). This is higher than the figure for the same period of 2020 by 15.3 per cent (or by 19.3 billion cubic meters).

Specifically, Gazprom increased gas supplies to Turkey (+138.3 per cent), Germany (+33.2 per cent), Italy (+14.2 per cent), Romania (+305.6 per cent), Serbia (+125.2 per cent), Poland (+11.2 per cent), Bulgaria (+52.5 per cent), Greece (+10.8 per cent), and Finland (+17.5 per cent).

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5009140

Quote

 

Gazprom's production in September reaches its maximum in 13 years

Gazprom produced 40.8 billion cubic meters in September. m of gas, which is 12% more than in September 2020, according to statistics, which was reviewed by Interfax . This is the maximum figure for the last 13 years (42.48 billion cubic meters was produced in 2008). The company's gas production in the first nine months of 2021 increased by about 17%, to 378 billion cubic meters. m.

In absolute terms, production increased by 55 billion cubic meters compared to last year. m. “According to our forecasts, the volume of gas production by the group in 2021 will increase by more than 55 billion cubic meters. m and will exceed the figure of 510 billion cubic meters. m - this is the maximum level over the past 10 years, "said Alexander Ivannikov, head of the financial and economic department of Gazprom, during a telephone conference with investors on 31 August.

Earlier it was reported that Gazprom in 2021 expects record gas production over the past decade, despite the accident at the plant in Novy Urengoy. The company does not expect significant growth in supplies to Europe.

 

my comment

In my opinion, there is an even worse option than the one in which, according to some, Gazprrom limits supplies to Europe.

A much worse option would be the one in which Gazprom, after 7 years of very low prices and sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry, as a result of which it has significantly limited investments in new deposits of this gas, simply does not hav spare capacity.

Did Europe really think Russia had so little self-respect to prioritise supplies to Europe over its own consumers, offering Europeans more gas in excess of contractual obligations at the time when it could not do so without jeopardising its own security with low storages?

You only get what you pay for, customers in thd far east have long term fixed price contracts so get the gas first, Russian consumers also get gas before Europe, that not rocket science, Europe have sanctioned the NS2 pipeline to stop it delivering gas, now they want gas

Russia also offers nuclear reactors with Rosatom for who ever buying , you can't Blame Russia for Europeans being stupid and doing renewable energy transition ( actually to imported fragile gas , the part most wind and solar boosters don't talk about )

Edited by Tomasz
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Quote

A much worse option would be the one in which Gazprom, after 7 years of very low prices and sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry, as a result of which it has significantly limited investments in new deposits of this gas, simply does not hav spare capacity.

This is the main reason behind this crazy price surge in TTF NG price index

And for high prices, I advise you if you want to blame somone do  it this in order -

-First printing the currency that soared into the cosmos

- Crazy German strategy of moving away from carbon and nuclear at the same time

-speculators and hedge funds who no longer know what assets to buy to put their free financial resources into market, since stocks, real estates and bonds are already inflated and crazy overbought so now its time for commodities

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15 hours ago, Tomasz said:

 

This is the main reason behind this crazy price surge in TTF NG price index

And for high prices, I advise you if you want to blame somone do  it this in order -

-First printing the currency that soared into the cosmos

- Crazy German strategy of moving away from carbon and nuclear at the same time

-speculators and hedge funds who no longer know what assets to buy to put their free financial resources into market, since stocks, real estates and bonds are already inflated and crazy overbought so now its time for commodities

Some speculators are not stupid and they KNOW what assets to buy.  However, we do not know if they created the wave or just took it for a ride.  In June, more than half of American LNG was sailing to Asia, and only quarter to Europe.  The prices back then were not super high.  And this is the only data I have found.  Qatar is another important supplier of LNG, Russia as well.  The persistently smaller supplies of LNG in Europe that started in late summer are not well explained, perhaps because they show a very different picture of "the blame" (sellers maximizing profit?  sounds like Sodoma and Gomorrha waiting to be smitten! does it?).

In Asia, shortages of electricity and/or inputs to chemical industry could cause sharp decrease in exports or similar consequences, thus the decided to avoid it "at all costs", practically, at a high cost.  Penny wise, pound foolish.  Once ships sail to Indo-Pacific, it is not easy to divert them, especially if the cargo is paid for, perhaps as large contracts to be delivered over months.  My conjecture is that once Europeans woke from their slumber, there was very little LNG left to purchase.  Speculators could have hold on some of those delivery contracts, but their hour of action probably came when the availability was decreased already.

Gazprom participated in the game too, and it is futile to speculate if they did it as dirty Commies or in the simple and laudable pursuit of profit, shareholder values etc.

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Another answer to the problem of massive swings in the supply and price of oil is to greatly increase renewable energy which can be supplied at continuous low cost, with the necessary investment in battery technology. The sun and wind do not have to be purchased, nor transported, and as a source are completely free from OPEC, Russia, and the ups and downs of US policy. Current oil and gasoline prices are clearly due to sharp cutbacks in oil production and capital spending by oil companies in 2020, caused by huge over-supply and the drop in demand that caused $30 oil for awhile last year. The free market and OPEC’s production declines are to blame, and the increasing use of electric cars will only serve to keep gasoline prices lower by reducing demand. Want lower gasoline prices? Then support electric vehicles, or buy one and make the price of gasoline irrelevant to your budget. Want to minimize your electric bill from spiking natural gas and coal costs? Putting solar panels on your roof will do that. My monthly electric bill averaged $12 per month last year, because of my solar panels, so fossil fuel prices don’t affect me so much. “Drill baby drill” isn’t the solution… that’s how we got here in the first place.

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(edited)

On 10/15/2021 at 8:34 AM, Michael Sanches said:

The sad part is governments and radicals cause so much pain.

I have no doubt that our energy needs will all be met by renewables by 2200. Likewise, most cars will be EV's. We should let the market get us from here to there; it is the most efficient. I look forward to that day (for my descendants.)

It is sad that we have all these people who think they are gods who demand this route or that route.

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

Edited by turbguy
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22 hours ago, turbguy said:

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

Did someone say "Green Dream"?

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On 9/14/2021 at 5:37 PM, notsonice said:

Americans are beginning to see the results of depending on renewables.????

 

what a load of babble, you do not post anything to back this up.....Reality Hurricane Ida shutdown 10 percent of the US oil and nat gas production causing a spike in prices in nat gas starting on Aug 26th from $4 to 0ver $5.30...... Dependable Nat Gas?????? Looks like we are all paying the price for being to reliant on Nat gas. Figure it out the cost of renewables did not go up , Nat gas did.

 

If the environmentalist would get out of the way of pipeline construction natural gas would be cheap. Offshore production is expensive, with all the gas we have in the lower 48 and in Canada there is no need to go offshore to find gas. Those offshore gas wells were developed pre-Shale fracking. We just need a way to get the gas to market. With 100's of thousand of miles of pipeline already existing why are the environmentalist getting in the way? Gas pipelines have been proven to be safe and since they're buried low on emissions. 

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On 10/16/2021 at 9:58 AM, Piotr Berman said:

Some speculators are not stupid and they KNOW what assets to buy.  However, we do not know if they created the wave or just took it for a ride.  In June, more than half of American LNG was sailing to Asia, and only quarter to Europe.  The prices back then were not super high.  And this is the only data I have found.  Qatar is another important supplier of LNG, Russia as well.  The persistently smaller supplies of LNG in Europe that started in late summer are not well explained, perhaps because they show a very different picture of "the blame" (sellers maximizing profit?  sounds like Sodoma and Gomorrha waiting to be smitten! does it?).

In Asia, shortages of electricity and/or inputs to chemical industry could cause sharp decrease in exports or similar consequences, thus the decided to avoid it "at all costs", practically, at a high cost.  Penny wise, pound foolish.  Once ships sail to Indo-Pacific, it is not easy to divert them, especially if the cargo is paid for, perhaps as large contracts to be delivered over months.  My conjecture is that once Europeans woke from their slumber, there was very little LNG left to purchase.  Speculators could have hold on some of those delivery contracts, but their hour of action probably came when the availability was decreased already.

Gazprom participated in the game too, and it is futile to speculate if they did it as dirty Commies or in the simple and laudable pursuit of profit, shareholder values etc.

Not many commies in Russia anymore, mainly fascists like everywhere else. The communists are a minority but helpful for tyrants. 

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On 10/15/2021 at 9:34 AM, Michael Sanches said:

The sad part is governments and radicals cause so much pain.

I have no doubt that our energy needs will all be met by renewables by 2200. Likewise, most cars will be EV's. We should let the market get us from here to there; it is the most efficient. I look forward to that day (for my descendants.)

It is sad that we have all these people who think they are gods who demand this route or that route.

Maybe most of our energy needs, or about 50% worldwide. 

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On 10/17/2021 at 2:14 AM, turbguy said:

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

Wow that some serious shit your smoking!

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On 10/17/2021 at 7:14 AM, turbguy said:

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

I am sure that China will start producing all these wonderful things for the West as soon as it sorts out it's coal supply issues!

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On 9/14/2021 at 4:13 PM, ronwagn said:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Protests-Break-Out-in-Europe-As-Electricity-Prices-Soar.html Europe is having problems with energy supply due to depending on Russian natural gas, and coal of their own to meet much of their need. Russia is going to ask a hefty price to come up with the money to pay for their new pipeline Nordstream 2. 

Many people are wondering how to cope with inflation and energy prices in America. Taxes are also going up in America and the corporate taxes always filter down to the average consumer. The left has many ideas on spending money, that we cannot afford, on building charging stations for EV's that will be built in the future, and will be sold with $7,500 rebates for those who might want them. EV's will require more electricity from whatever source and more power lines to deliver it. It will be the Greatest Show on Earth and have a HUGE price tag. 

Wow! You must really get a kick out of the hysteria from the "woke gain" flock of the Church of Warming who worship the government. If you really want to get them breathless use mathematics that is banned by their religion.

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On 10/16/2021 at 8:14 PM, turbguy said:

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

You might want to try some lithium.🤣

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(edited)

Is it the green movement moving Tesla stock or maybe engineering prowess. The richest man in the world keeps cashing in. Musk has such a tiny part of the car market and a minuscule part of the energy market yet investors keep buying stock. What do the rest see that many don’t. Can politics drive missing out on maybe the best investment in a generation? Or maybe some are afraid China will pull the plug on American companies if there is a conflict. 
The Tesla goal for 2030 is 20 million electric cars a year. This year they will produce around 900 thousand. Who bets Musk can pull it off.

Edited by Boat

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On 10/11/2021 at 9:20 PM, ronwagn said:

Are their icebreakers useful in those months, to deliver coal?

Hypothetically. The only place where they send a nuclear icebreaker to pick up coal is Svalbard/Spitzbergen, which is in shared custody with Norway, with both sides pretending they really are mining coal there.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/norway-close-its-last-arctic-coal-mine-2023-2021-09-30/

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On 10/17/2021 at 3:14 AM, turbguy said:

By 2200. roads themselves may be obsolete.

Replaced by lines of advanced solar "collectors".

By then, genetic science will have endowed common yeast with the ability to produce charge via genetics arising from genes copied from electric eels.  A company to be named Genetic Electric will market washing machine sized "reactors" into which all of your household grey and blackwater enter, and two wires (and overflow) leave.  Providing a significant portion (if not an excess) of your household electric requirements.

 

 

In 2220, there is a Japanese copy which makes it all look cute.

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On 10/11/2021 at 3:54 PM, turbguy said:

A 500 MW coal plant will need about one of those trucks EVERY HOUR at full load (+/-, depends on coal quality)..

It is comparable economics to a small river barge the Chinese use anyway. For all the attention the Chinese put to sea shipping, does their river shipping comparably sucks. I believe their best river ships are Soviet surplus still. There is also zilch regular navigation on the river Amur on the border, which only sees very light ice, if any.

If you want large, try this

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Penzhin_Tidal_Power_Plant_Project

Lowest price for watt of installed capacity of any project anywhere, bar none. Problem - nobody needs that much electricity yet. If only there was any sincerity to electrolytic hydrogen plots... Alas, there isn't.

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