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"A Very Predictable Global Energy Crisis" by Irina Slav --- MUST READ

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EXCERPT:  It is, in fact, entirely accurate and fair to explain the high energy prices as a result of clean energy transition policies. It was these policies that discouraged investment in new oil, gas, and coal production. It was also these policies that led to the shutdowns of coal and nuclear plants that reduced generating capacity that simply cannot be replaced by wind or solar on a MW for MW basis because wind and solar do not generate power continuously. And it is these policies, in Europe, China, North America, and elsewhere that, unless revised to reflect reality a bit better, will condemn billions of people to blackouts, energy shortages, and higher electricity bills.

A Very Predictable Global Energy Crisis

By Irina Slav - Oct 06, 2021, 7:00 PM CDT

  • When gas prices in Europe started rising faster and faster last month as the continent prepared for winter and found out it was not the only one, gas suddenly became important
  • Italian Energy Exec: "It could get very ugly unless we act quickly to try to fill every inch of storage,"
  • It is, in fact, entirely accurate and fair to explain the high energy prices as a result of clean energy transition policies

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/A-Very-Predictable-Global-Energy-Crisis.html

Gas prices in Europe are breaking record after record. The UK is facing supply shortages reminiscent of the late 1970s winter of discontent. Chinese factories are shutting down because of power shortages, and the outlook is grim. In fact, it may be the first crisis of many.

When gas prices in Europe started rising faster and faster last month as the continent prepared for winter and found out it was not the only one, gas suddenly became important. That's after being excluded from the list of low-carbon energy sources and after the EU's green transition chief Frans Timmermans said gas had no place in the transition. It now appears Timmermans and his fellow Brussels bureaucrats could not have been more wrong.

For years Europe has been retiring coal plants and building solar and wind farms as it strived to become the greenest continent on earth and lead the energy transition on the premise that emissions of carbon dioxide are the planet's single biggest problem because they lead to unfavorable climate changes. This has been coupled with investment declines in oil and gas production, as this only made sense. Now, the EU has got the first bill for its low-carbon feast.

"It could get very ugly unless we act quickly to try to fill every inch of storage," Marco Alvera, chief executive of Italian energy infrastructure company Snam, told Bloomberg last month. "You can survive a week without electricity, but you can't survive without gas."

This last sentence is important. The green transition plans of the EU—and all other countries with a green agenda, really—tend to assume that the only way to a cleaner energy future is through total electrification. And they are saying it will be cheap and easy, or, in the now immortalized words of UK's Prime Minister Boris Johnson quoting the opposite of Kermit the Frog, "It is easy to be green." Johnson also said it was possible for the UK to go 100-percent green (plus nuclear) by 2035.

China's ruling elite must have also thought that going green would be easy as they imposed stricter emission rules on industrial producers and utilities. And then had to issue a "Whatever it takes" order to make sure utilities would have enough fossil fuel supplies for the winter to avoid outages. The order, it appears, was too late, and factories are already shutting down as coal supply remains tight and will remain tight for the observable future.

Years of underinvestment as coal turned into humankind's greatest mistake are now bearing fruit, and this fruit is a polluting one. But it was bound to happen. Once you demonize a commodity that has played an essential role in the progress of civilization for more than a century and start pouring billions into ensuring this demonization leads to the demise of that commodity, success is only a matter of time. But in the meantime, it might be a good idea to ensure you have an alternative—and this is the really important part—that can perform on par with the demonized commodity.

The energy crunch has shown in what some would say is an unequivocal way that wind and solar power do not perform on par with coal, oil, or gas. They can't. They depend on the weather. But wind and solar were what the EU, China, and the United States rushed into to replace fossil fuels, and now we are all paying the first installment on that rushed renewables purchase.

"It is a cautionary message about how complex the energy transition is going to be," Daniel Yergin told Bloomberg this week, referring to the energy crunch. Bloomberg, by the way, has been at the forefront of the energy transition coverage, producing a lot of praise for increasingly cheap wind and solar. Apparently, however, they are still not cheap enough or rather, not reliable enough to become cheap enough. But nobody is talking about this.

"It is inaccurate and unfair to explain these high energy prices as a result of clean energy transition policies. This is wrong," said the International Energy Agency's Fatih Birol, echoing a sentiment shared by all green governments. The reason for the sentiment has never been explained, but it might come down to the fact that so much money has been spent on the energy transition already and so much more is slated to be spent, that it would be embarrassing to admit the approach to the transition was sub-optimal.

It is, in fact, entirely accurate and fair to explain the high energy prices as a result of clean energy transition policies. It was these policies that discouraged investment in new oil, gas, and coal production. It was also these policies that led to the shutdowns of coal and nuclear plants that reduced generating capacity that simply cannot be replaced by wind or solar on a MW for MW basis because wind and solar do not generate power continuously. And it is these policies, in Europe, China, North America, and elsewhere that, unless revised to reflect reality a bit better, will condemn billions of people to blackouts, energy shortages, and higher electricity bills.

By Irina Slav For Oilprice.com

 

 

 

Edited by Tom Nolan
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5 hours ago, Tom Nolan said:

It is, in fact, entirely accurate and fair to explain the high energy prices as a result of clean energy transition policies

I would also agree that it is fair. Instead of allowing the market to develop normally with perhaps minor emissions reduction goals, politicians world wide have gone loopy over renewables which have repeatedly been shown to disabilise power grids and distort investment. Even that wouldn't be so bad if they had accepted the harsh reality (harsh for activists, that is) that renewables have to be backed-up with conventional power, end of story. Batteries can be used to buffer output, give the conventional plants time to come on line and so on, but the conventional plants are still needed big time. 

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Putin's official conference of the subject of the gas crunch. "Meeting on development of the energy industry"

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66866

Got some interesting numbers. Big point you are missing is the European Commissions insistence on sport market pricing for gas instead of long term contracts.

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57 minutes ago, markslawson said:

I would also agree that it is fair. Instead of allowing the market to develop normally with perhaps minor emissions reduction goals, politicians world wide have gone loopy over renewables which have repeatedly been shown to disabilise power grids and distort investment. Even that wouldn't be so bad if they had accepted the harsh reality (harsh for activists, that is) that renewables have to be backed-up with conventional power, end of story. Batteries can be used to buffer output, give the conventional plants time to come on line and so on, but the conventional plants are still needed big time. 

That train of thought will spill over into the German auto industry, while EV's are taking the EU by storm there is very little thought given as to how VW will have to retool/retrain their production lines. In the end the labor force will get hurt and Germany will experience its own Make Germany Great Again..To this day the phrase a "Seamless Transition" triggers me.

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18 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

That train of thought will spill over into the German auto industry, while EV's are taking the EU by storm there is very little thought given as to how VW will have to retool/retrain their production lines. In the end the labor force will get hurt and Germany will experience its own Make Germany Great Again..To this day the phrase a "Seamless Transition" triggers me.

No problem. Every major new VW model already comes with an entirely new plant, which they can replicate. The residual "labor force" is just for show anyway, the plants allow for near 100% automation.

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(edited)

42 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

No problem. Every major new VW model already comes with an entirely new plant, which they can replicate. The residual "labor force" is just for show anyway, the plants allow for near 100% automation.

Morgan Stanley estimates that the global auto supply chain employs "in the range of 11 million people." Jonas pointed to recent statements by VW Group CEO Herbert Diess, who said it takes 30 percent less labor to produce an electric vehicle than a similarly priced car that has the traditional internal combustion engine. This would result in a headcount cut of more than 3 million workers from the global auto industry.

But that number could increase, Jonas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/morgan-stanley-electric-vehicles-will-cost-millions-of-auto-jobs.html

 

The run up to Germany’s federal election this coming Sunday has been characterised by an unprecedented wave of strikes, protests and demonstrations.

The SGP’s election appeal states: “No social problem can be resolved without expropriating the banks and major corporations and placing them under the democratic control of the working class. Their profits and wealth must be confiscated and the trillions given to them over the past year must be returned. The world economy must be restructured on the basis of a scientific and rational plan.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/09/24/germ-s24.html

 

 

Edited by Eyes Wide Open
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24 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Morgan Stanley estimates that the global auto supply chain employs "in the range of 11 million people." Jonas pointed to recent statements by VW Group CEO Herbert Diess, who said it takes 30 percent less labor to produce an electric vehicle than a similarly priced car that has the traditional internal combustion engine. This would result in a headcount cut of more than 3 million workers from the global auto industry.

But that number could increase, Jonas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/morgan-stanley-electric-vehicles-will-cost-millions-of-auto-jobs.html

 

The run up to Germany’s federal election this coming Sunday has been characterised by an unprecedented wave of strikes, protests and demonstrations.

The SGP’s election appeal states: “No social problem can be resolved without expropriating the banks and major corporations and placing them under the democratic control of the working class. Their profits and wealth must be confiscated and the trillions given to them over the past year must be returned. The world economy must be restructured on the basis of a scientific and rational plan.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/09/24/germ-s24.html

 

 

Yes, the electrical cars are significantly easier to build. Silicon Valley would be able to built conventional cars, only laptops on wheels :)

SGP is about as likely to go full on socialist and expropriate anyone as Democratic Party in US.

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29 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Morgan Stanley estimates that the global auto supply chain employs "in the range of 11 million people." Jonas pointed to recent statements by VW Group CEO Herbert Diess, who said it takes 30 percent less labor to produce an electric vehicle than a similarly priced car that has the traditional internal combustion engine. This would result in a headcount cut of more than 3 million workers from the global auto industry.

But that number could increase, Jonas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/morgan-stanley-electric-vehicles-will-cost-millions-of-auto-jobs.html

 

The run up to Germany’s federal election this coming Sunday has been characterised by an unprecedented wave of strikes, protests and demonstrations.

The SGP’s election appeal states: “No social problem can be resolved without expropriating the banks and major corporations and placing them under the democratic control of the working class. Their profits and wealth must be confiscated and the trillions given to them over the past year must be returned. The world economy must be restructured on the basis of a scientific and rational plan.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/09/24/germ-s24.html

 

 

Oops, confusion with SDP SGP is a party with roundoff-level support

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Equality_Party_(Germany)

Even

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Left_(Germany)

The officially designed ex-GDR Commies, barely made it this time.

 

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On 10/10/2021 at 8:14 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Morgan Stanley estimates that the global auto supply chain employs "in the range of 11 million people." Jonas pointed to recent statements by VW Group CEO Herbert Diess, who said it takes 30 percent less labor to produce an electric vehicle than a similarly priced car that has the traditional internal combustion engine. This would result in a headcount cut of more than 3 million workers from the global auto industry.

But that number could increase, Jonas said.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/15/morgan-stanley-electric-vehicles-will-cost-millions-of-auto-jobs.html

 

The run up to Germany’s federal election this coming Sunday has been characterised by an unprecedented wave of strikes, protests and demonstrations.

The SGP’s election appeal states: “No social problem can be resolved without expropriating the banks and major corporations and placing them under the democratic control of the working class. Their profits and wealth must be confiscated and the trillions given to them over the past year must be returned. The world economy must be restructured on the basis of a scientific and rational plan.”

https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2021/09/24/germ-s24.html

 

 

Abraham Lincoln said " Sometimes you have to laugh so you don't cry".

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On 10/10/2021 at 8:41 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Yes, the electrical cars are significantly easier to build. Silicon Valley would be able to built conventional cars, only laptops on wheels :)

SGP is about as likely to go full on socialist and expropriate anyone as Democratic Party in US.

The Democratic's aim is to go full socialist. There are 80 members of the progressive caucus led by the quad most notably Ocasio Cortez. That is twice as many as the forty Republicans in the Conservative Caucus! That means that the rest of the Republicans do not commit to conservatism! 

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On 10/10/2021 at 8:41 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Yes, the electrical cars are significantly easier to build. Silicon Valley would be able to built conventional cars, only laptops on wheels :)

SGP is about as likely to go full on socialist and expropriate anyone as Democratic Party in US.

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/expropriate

Definition of expropriate

As when taxes expropriate money from someone to the government. Quantitative easing expropriates the value of those who hold money. Spending more than the government taxes is also expropriation. ronwagn

transitive verb

1: to deprive of possession or proprietary rights
2: to transfer (the property of another) to one's own possession
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10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

The Democratic's aim is to go full socialist. There are 80 members of the progressive caucus led by the quad most notably Ocasio Cortez. That is twice as many as the forty Republicans in the Conservative Caucus! That means that the rest of the Republicans do not commit to conservatism! 

Ocasio Cortez works for Carlos Slim, working towards the "Greater Lebanon" thing. As far as the US domestic policy goes, she is just a yes woman. Will support whatever makes her more popular, but remain sitting on however many chairs possible at once.

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10 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/expropriate

Definition of expropriate

As when taxes expropriate money from someone to the government. Quantitative easing expropriates the value of those who hold money. Spending more than the government taxes is also expropriation. ronwagn

transitive verb

1: to deprive of possession or proprietary rights
2: to transfer (the property of another) to one's own possession

Somewhere in Hungary, did a gas trader go missing

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missing_trader_fraud

Only not missing, but rerouted. And it is not illegal if there is no detectable circle. Good thing Hungary got the largest VAT EU-wide, 27%, thinks the trader filing for VAT reimbursement to Brussels. There is no loop because you cannot really reverse the segment between Hungary and Ukraine. Ukraine will be kept warm by the virtual gas from Hungary (quit methane, oil and coal, go vacuum, the most environmental fuel in the Universe)

All that Russia needs to save the day now is to start a buyback program for its own gas, the more expensive, the better. To be cleared by imaginary EU and USD obtained in exchange for imaginary RUB. To the negative infinity and beyond! Towards the monetary policy of the projective Riemann plane! Expropriate the expropriators!

The discovery of imaginary money that they gave IG Nobel for to Enron Corp now needs to get a proper Nobel in econ. Nothing mathematically wrong with complex numbers. In fact, does the electrical meter charge you plentifully along the real currency axis for imaginary valued volt-amperes (reactance)  Why shouldn't there be imaginary gas Russia ships among imaginary North Stream to imaginary Danzig entry port? Somebody in Russia stopped playing chess so much and opened a math textbook? It is about time. Somebody in UK, can of of SPAM goes pop on the empty supermarket shelf. What do you know, it wasn't really made out of commodity pork belly traded on CBOT? Absolutely nobody in the City of London is at fault. They are properly hedged every each possible way against exposure to volatility in pork belly futures. Finally, they have achieved the panultimate goal of risk management profession. The port belly is finally dead! Not volatile at all! Yet, it is alive? Lets see if Schroedinger cat will eat it? You can have it any way you want it, except kosher, halal and medium rare.

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4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ocasio Cortez works for Carlos Slim, working towards the "Greater Lebanon" thing. As far as the US domestic policy goes, she is just a yes woman. Will support whatever makes her more popular, but remain sitting on however many chairs possible at once.

Is Carlos Slim a leftist? I believe he is supporting the New York Times. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlos_Slim#Reactions

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