Tomasz

Ukrainian Maidan after 8 years

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Commemorary post from yesterday:
 
Wolfgang Ischinger Munich Conference
Quote


 
"Ukraine lost Crimea & Donbass, Russia lost Ukraine, Europe lost Russia, and the world lost stability."

 

 
 Dimitry Trenin
Quote

"Because seeing Ukraine turn into a U.S.-controlled unsinkable aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s border just a few hundred miles from Moscow is no more acceptable to Kremlin than that other unsinkable aircraft carrier, Cuba, was to the WH . So Putin has finally come to believe that force is the only language the West really understands. Hence, Russia’s foreign policy is increasingly reaching for military instruments when it comes to relations with the US&NATO

Artiom Lukin

Quote

 

"Speaking at the Bloomberg New Economy Forum, Hillary Clinton admits there was an expectation in Washington Russia would have no choice but to become the West's junior partner due to the fear China could take over the Russian Far East.  I wonder if there are people in Washington who still believe this theory. Probably not. Hillary's admission is testament to how the arrogance of preponderant power clouds the judgement of otherwise sophisticated elite who got their education at supposedly world's best schools.As the US is losing its relative power vis-a-vis China, there may be an incentive for the US political class to get less arrogant -- and more intelligent"

 

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41% of Ukrainians Agree They and Russians Are One People

These are the results of a recent poll from Rating Group.

41% agree with Putin’s position, 55% disagree. Not bad, considering there’s now been a generation’s worth of state proukrainian narratives.

But possibly the most startling result (and certainly one that I didn’t expect is there there’s essentially zero difference across age groups. 44% of 18-29 y/o’s agree to 42% of 60+ y/o’s, despite declining numbers of self-identifying Russians in younger age groups.

Otherwise, the regional and political party breakdowns are not surprising. Solid majorities in the South and East, amongst adherents of the UOC-MP (russian ortodox church), and the expected opposition parties (Opposition Bloc, Party of Shariy, etc.) consider Ukrainians and Russians to be one people.

Even so, the fact that even in Western Ukraine, 22% agree with this, as do 10% of Greek-Catholics, 12% of nationalist Svoboda supporters, and 10% of European Solidarity voters, was mildly interesting; it is curious and significant that such people even exist.

 

poll-2021-russians-ukrainians-one-people-2011 (2).png

Edited by Tomasz

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Share of Russians Willing to Move Abroad Hits Decade High – Poll

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/09/share-of-russians-willing-to-move-abroad-hits-decade-high-poll-a74164

Perhaps there is a real question lurking under the surface of a manufactured one.

So now we come back to hard reality - 4 milion living abroad out of 150 milions.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009483/emigration-and-immigration-russia/

Some 4 milion Ukrainian are currently leaving in Russia.  

A little problem is that- 4/150 of Russian leave abroad worldwide and at the some time 4/37 Ukrainians live only just in Rusia.

Now you see a little difference?

 

 

Edited by Tomasz

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4 hours ago, Tomasz said:

So now we come back to hard reality - 4 milion living abroad out of 150 milions.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009483/emigration-and-immigration-russia/

Some 4 milion Ukrainian are currently leaving in Russia.  

A little problem is that- 4/150 of Russian leave abroad worldwide and at the some time 4/37 Ukrainians live only just in Rusia.

Now you see a little difference?

 

 

The number I'm getting is closer to 145 million.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/russia-population

Half of 145 million is 72.5 million - somewhat more than the population of the UK.

The question isn't how many have already left, its how many want out.

Russia and the US were allies when the Nazis were invading the Soviet Union. China is a lot bigger than Germany was. China isn't quite as adventurous, at least not yet. Its also a lot longer distance from Beijing to Moscow than it is from Berlin to Moscow. The more provocative Russia is, the less sympathy American voters will have if Russia ends up needing international help. Flimsy rationalizations for territorial grabs work both ways.

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(edited)

On 11/21/2021 at 3:26 PM, Tomasz said:

So now we come back to hard reality - 4 milion living abroad out of 150 milions.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1009483/emigration-and-immigration-russia/

Some 4 milion Ukrainian are currently leaving in Russia.  

A little problem is that- 4/150 of Russian leave abroad worldwide and at the some time 4/37 Ukrainians live only just in Rusia.

Now you see a little difference?

 

 

Russians are not stupid enough to let the government find out their innermost thoughts and desires. They have seen enough examples of how free speakers are punished. 

We must arm Ukraine and Taiwan to the point where the bear will not cross the line. 

Ukrainians know how they were treated by Stalin. See https://www.history.com/news/ukrainian-famine-stalin

and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

GolodomorKharkiv.jpg

Edited by ronwagn
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(edited)

12 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

Share of Russians Willing to Move Abroad Hits Decade High – Poll

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2021/06/09/share-of-russians-willing-to-move-abroad-hits-decade-high-poll-a74164

Perhaps there is a real question lurking under the surface of a manufactured one.

8% is not tremendously high. Neither is Levada all that independent (classified as foreign agent by the Russian state) Moscow Times is a Dutch newspaper catering to foreign visitors to Russia before online.

What real question?

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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(edited)

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Russians are not stupid enough to let the government find out their innermost thoughts and desires. They have seen enough examples of how free speakers are punished. 

We must arm Ukraine and Russia to the point where the bear will not cross the line. 

Ukrainians know how they were treated by Stalin. See https://www.history.com/news/ukrainian-famine-stalin

and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor

GolodomorKharkiv.jpg

"Free speakers" are surely punished a lot less than In US. No net censorship whatsoever on RUnet, for example, and nobody getting "de-platformed" No fear of getting cancelled by the cancel culture, no matter what you say.

Ukraine is beyond broke, you will have to do it free of charge. Which is not going to happen. Maybe you should be worried about Russia pulling ahead in arms race and arm yourself first?

Holodomor is a very real Goebbels propaganda narrative, based on what Nazis would do themselves. It is simply stupid. Commies don't have enemy nations or ethnicities, only enemies of class. Anything else would violate their scripture. Russia/Soviet Union used to experience a major famine every dozen years or so. The 1932-33 one was the last of those, so the Bolsheviks were the ones who stopped it, not started. A lot of areas affected by the famine were not in Ukraine, but in Russia proper and in Kazakhstan (affected worst of all)

The Bolsheviks were the actually the unfortunate fathers of Ukrainian political nation as something separate from the rest of Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainization#1923–1931:_Early_years_of_Soviet_Ukraine

Which has everything to do with the onset of famine, when up to 80% of local administration consisted out of "professional Ukrainians" with no other obvious qualifications. (Same as you can observe now) So, you have nobody but Ukrainians to blame for starving other Ukrainians.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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6 hours ago, Meredith Poor said:

The number I'm getting is closer to 145 million.

https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/russia-population

Half of 145 million is 72.5 million - somewhat more than the population of the UK.

The question isn't how many have already left, its how many want out.

Russia and the US were allies when the Nazis were invading the Soviet Union. China is a lot bigger than Germany was. China isn't quite as adventurous, at least not yet. Its also a lot longer distance from Beijing to Moscow than it is from Berlin to Moscow. The more provocative Russia is, the less sympathy American voters will have if Russia ends up needing international help. Flimsy rationalizations for territorial grabs work both ways.

The richer Russia gets, the less "want out" Same as everywhere. Many who already left are actually returning now. Russia is 2nd or 3rd most common IMMIGRATION destination itself, behind USA and possibly Germany only. The actual population is likely closer to 155 mil, counting the illegals.

Russia certainly is in no need of "international help" Especially not from the Americans. The Chinese are considered a very low level threat. Unlike you.

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7 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The Chinese are considered a very low level threat. Unlike you.

With an emphasis on "considered".

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1 hour ago, Meredith Poor said:

With an emphasis on "considered".

Comes from a significant experience in kicking their asses. Russia has no  living peers in continental scale land warfare left.

Your activities involving "force projections", ruling the seas and lots of Newspeak are different. I like the more recent approach Russian military takes to mysterious Yankee activities. Does the activity make more sense if you imagine the Yankees wearing underpants over their regular outfits? If yes, the Yankees are acting in their superhero capacity. Bonus points if you can assign them to Marvel vs DC :)

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18 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Russians are not stupid enough to let the government find out their innermost thoughts and desires. They have seen enough examples of how free speakers are punished. 

We must arm Ukraine and Russia to the point where the bear will not cross the line. 

Ukrainians know how they were treated by Stalin.------

Authorities making a naturally caused food crisis worse were not unique to USSR in those years: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bengal_famine_of_1943, and the Irish could add some comments too.  Concerning punishments for "free speakers", Russia these years is a very reluctant "punisher", with some red lines like organizing demonstrations without even attempting to secure a permit -- something that is not tolerated in the West either.  You can easily read opposition newspapers or watch opposition channel on the web.  Importantly, whatever indicator of freedom of speech and political activity, Ukraine is much worse than Russia.

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"... Ukraine turn into a U.S.-controlled unsinkable aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s border"

"Ukraine is beyond broke"

Sinkability of Ukraine is open to further study, if it really goes broke, it may sink.  So far, USA uses Ukraine as fly-over area, e.g. Trump, or Pentagon under his putative control, was fond of flying B-52's over Ukraine along Russian border.  In the same time, while not entirely broke, Ukraine is kept of fairly thin diet by USA and EU, some loans and lots of demands whenever they are about to be extended, and did not hear about new loans, subsidies are meager and direct investments are sparse.  If you look at money flows, Ukraine is by no means a darling for the West.

 

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13 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The richer Russia gets, the less "want out" Same as everywhere. Many who already left are actually returning now. Russia is 2nd or 3rd most common IMMIGRATION destination itself, behind USA and possibly Germany only. The actual population is likely closer to 155 mil, counting the illegals.

Russia certainly is in no need of "international help" Especially not from the Americans. The Chinese are considered a very low level threat. Unlike you.

We are of no threat to Russia whatsoever. China and America are both concerned about Russian nuclear threats as Russia is from China also. If Russia had no nuclear the Chinese would have taken over during their last attack to the north. 

Russia and America should be allies again. It would be better for Russia, Europe, and America. 

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Ukraine is not a democracy but an oligarchy.

Most of the most powerful oligarchs even have now some small armed troops.

The peak of oligarchy for me was a movie with the speech of Zeleński, who at the beginning of the pandemic, called on the most powerful oligarchs to fight the pandemic on their own at their spehere of infuence.

In the history of the world, there was time when individual magnates managed their latifundiain this way but in the civilized world this method of management ended a few centuries ago.

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2 minutes ago, Piotr Berman said:

"... Ukraine turn into a U.S.-controlled unsinkable aircraft carrier parked on Russia’s border"

"Ukraine is beyond broke"

Sinkability of Ukraine is open to further study, if it really goes broke, it may sink.  So far, USA uses Ukraine as fly-over area, e.g. Trump, or Pentagon under his putative control, was fond of flying B-52's over Ukraine along Russian border.  In the same time, while not entirely broke, Ukraine is kept of fairly thin diet by USA and EU, some loans and lots of demands whenever they are about to be extended, and did not hear about new loans, subsidies are meager and direct investments are sparse.  If you look at money flows, Ukraine is by no means a darling for the West.

 

I see it as a free country that Russia would like to take over again. The Byelorussian people would like to be free also, but Putin is backing their dictator. 

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

We are of no threat to Russia whatsoever. China and America are both concerned about Russian nuclear threats as Russia is from China also. If Russia had no nuclear the Chinese would have taken over during their last attack to the north.

Yes, you have your puppets for day-to-day harassment.

The "last attack to the north" was over Damanskiy/Zhenbao island on river Amur. The place is just 8 km^2 large and Russia eventually just let the Chinese have it. The whole attack obviously had the same symbolic significance as their all-out attack on Vietnam. They needed to show to their than-new American friends that Commies can attack other Commies and help the uncle Kissinger persuade everybody back home.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I see it as a free country that Russia would like to take over again. The Byelorussian people would like to be free also, but Putin is backing their dictator. 

Who's a free country now, Ukraine? You got to be kidding! It used to be sorta freer than Russia on the account of being way more corrupt with their bribes very reasonably sized, but none of this applies after 2014 anymore. It is simply a horrible place now, thanks to the USA/Western meddling.

Putin cannot stand the guy same as anybody else, but was cornered, as the protests against Lukashenko started to turn violent and acquire the anti-Russian "color revolution" traits familiar from Ukrainian Maidan.

You cannot meaningfully be entirely free of a much larger country who is also an overwhelming component in your trade. Its like demanding Mexico and Canada cut off the US for being such jerks. Trying to manipulate the locals into doing so on your behalf is principally dishonest.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

continental scale land warfare

Presumably this means Kursk-style battles. Is that really how 21st century warfare is going to play out?

What, precisely, do you think that the US and/or Western Europe wants from Russia? What have American and European leaders and diplomats asked for, either politely or emphatically?

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2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Who's a free country now, Ukraine? You got to be kidding! It used to be sorta freer than Russia on the account of being way more corrupt and bribes very reasonably sized, but none of this applies after 2014 anymore. It is just a horrible place now, thanks to the USA/Western meddling.

Putin cannot stand the guy same as anybody else, but was cornered, as the protests against Lukashenko started to turn violent and acquire the anti-Russian "color revolution" traits familiar from Ukrainian Maidan.

You cannot meaningfully be entirely free of a much larger country who is also an overwhelming component in your trade. Its like demanding Mexico and Canada cut off the US for being such jerks. Trying to manipulate the locals into doing so on your behalf is principally dishonest.

How would the United States manipulate the locals? We are thousands of miles away. You Russians have thousands of operatives trying to undermine the legitimate governments of such countries. I think it is the free choice of the people of those countries which are being crushed. No?

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(edited)

Some commentators around the world are as happy as children that Russia is becoming (in their opinion) a client of Beijing and will be less and less important in geopolitics.

Meanwhile, from the point of view of the Russian authorities, this is an ideal situation. They themselves are not able to maintain their position as a superpower in the long run, but they are served it on a plate for the next 100 years.

Let me just remind you about some nuances. Let someone think about what and where the DPRK, Venezuela or Syria would be if it were not for who is behind them.

And would the regimes in these countries really fare better if they were not puppets? You can ask such a Saddam, Gaddafi or hundreds of others who had no one to stand behind. And come on with those Siberia. Has China taken the DPRK over these 70 years of the Moon Mountains for its riches, or has Russia annexed the Bay of Pigs?

This is not the 19th century. For Russia, the protector will not be as obvious and overwhelming as it is for some third-order satrapy from Africa. Not this league. So there is no fear that they face greater political pauperization than in Australia, Germany or Canada in relation to the USA.

Yes, Russia is quietly enjoying the US-China conflict, even according to the old rule "where two fight, third use". - It does not have to be this way and most likely it will not be that after defeating the USA, China will start with Russia. This could only happen if the US suffered a crushing defeat.

There is no indication of this, any "fears" are based on the fact that China's potential will catch up with the US or slightly overtake it. Even if it were more than "insignificantly", it is still a long way from a situation where China simultaneously wrestles with other (after all) powers. - Russia has no problem, even no dilemma and no choice, because it has only one path - towards China, because only this solution gives them a "free hand", does not criticize the internal (political) situation, actions towards neighbors, etc.

There are a lot of things here. reasons and enormous convenience for Russia in cooperation with China. It is incomparably more difficult with the USA and Western Europe and, in total, much less benefits.

At least in trade, it slowly turns out that China has everything to sell and that China will buy everything that Russia has to offer. Contrary to EU-Russia or US-Russia trade.

And similarly for China, maybe they have a more comfortable situation, they need Russia less, but at least "for company", to have a neighbor "who will always understand", "always help", "always advise", it's better than making another enemy by which, at your own request, surround yourself with them. Get rid of many advantages such as the northern-trade route, the most efficient link of the "New Silk Road" in the form of Russian and Belarusian railways, etc.

In my opinion, China is not a threat to Russia its much greater "hope" and there is a potential for long-term harmonious cooperation in the current political conditions for both countries. I mean the harmonious complementation of trade (raw materials for goods), political - there is no shadow of fear to accuse yourself of some "human rights violations", "lack of democracy", etc.

Yes, there may be some small neighborly "disagreements", maybe even something like small flies such as France-Germany or Canada-USA, because not even Germany-Poland, where the situation and differences are much greater (less harmony in cooperation, more conflicts of interest).

Edited by Tomasz
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3 minutes ago, Meredith Poor said:

Presumably this means Kursk-style battles. Is that really how 21st century warfare is going to play out?

What, precisely, do you think that the US and/or Western Europe wants from Russia? What have American and European leaders and diplomats asked for, either politely or emphatically?

Possibly, possibly not. But you wouldn't know, because no NATO force including yours has any organizational structures beyond a single brigade. However many different generals and admirals you put into one room, they'll just squabble and throw hussy fits. They don't take orders from each other, regardless how many stars who's got.

You want the same you always wanted - loot. The Western civilization is not self sufficient without looting others. What your leaders and diplomats say to cover up your real motivations is immaterial. We are not the right type of Christian? Oh, wait. that was the IVth and the Northern Crusades. Never mind, than. Something else allegedly wrong with our values? Who cares... We are through listening to your moralizing.

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14 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

"Free speakers" are surely punished a lot less than In US. No net censorship whatsoever on RUnet, for example, and nobody getting "de-platformed" No fear of getting cancelled by the cancel culture, no matter what you say.

Ukraine is beyond broke, you will have to do it free of charge. Which is not going to happen. Maybe you should be worried about Russia pulling ahead in arms race and arm yourself first?

Holodomor is a very real Goebbels propaganda narrative, based on what Nazis would do themselves. It is simply stupid. Commies don't have enemy nations or ethnicities, only enemies of class. Anything else would violate their scripture. Russia/Soviet Union used to experience a major famine every dozen years or so. The 1932-33 one was the last of those, so the Bolsheviks were the ones who stopped it, not started. A lot of areas affected by the famine were not in Ukraine, but in Russia proper and in Kazakhstan (affected worst of all)

The Bolsheviks were the actually the unfortunate fathers of Ukrainian political nation as something separate from the rest of Russia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainization#1923–1931:_Early_years_of_Soviet_Ukraine

Which has everything to do with the onset of famine, when up to 80% of local administration consisted out of "professional Ukrainians" with no other obvious qualifications. (Same as you can observe now) So, you have nobody but Ukrainians to blame for starving other Ukrainians.

The Russians took all of the crops of the Ukranians and the household goods of the farmers too. Millions died of starvation just as the Chinese did under Mao. Communism at work. 

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8 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

How would the United States manipulate the locals? We are thousands of miles away. You Russians have thousands of operatives trying to undermine the legitimate governments of such countries. I think it is the free choice of the people of those countries which are being crushed. No?

Some Americans can fly (though not very well)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ut2-cSVyOy0

Recognize this guy? How about Vicki "Fuck the EU" Nuland's infamous cookie run on Maidan? If we've got operatives like that, they are at least clandestine.

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1 minute ago, ronwagn said:

The Russians took all of the crops of the Ukranians and the household goods of the farmers too. Millions died of starvation just as the Chinese did under Mao. Communism at work. 

You probably mean the

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dekulakization

However misguided, it was not specifically targeting ethnic Ukrainians, but simply the richer farmers anywhere. What Russians? Lenin was like the only Russian guy in the first Politbiro, the rest were some kind of minority (with Jewish the largest fraction, followed by Poles) Stalin was a Georgian. I am telling you, all the attempts to cast the early history of USSR as some kind of ethnic strife is Nazi propaganda based on psychoanalyzing themselves. It is simply stupid from a point of view of anybody familiar with actual Communism.

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