Tomasz

Europe gas market -how it started how its going

Recommended Posts

Tomasz: As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

It seems that even if Russia gives up its entire NG export, it still has trade surplus, and if it gives up NG export only to countries that would join putative "super sanctions" that USA is developing for the eventuality of a was termed "invasion on Ukraine", Russia would still have current account surplus.  Adding sanctions on the trade in Russian bonds is hilarious in this context.

In the meantime, Western societies seem to have low tolerance for inflation driven by world commodities.  Because I know only few languages, I can only witness the loss of popularity of governments in USA and UK, and the strange maneuvers aim to preserve the popularity of the current government.  The latest styles itself as the "United Right Wing" and "Defender of poor people", so it devised a plan to fight inflation with "inflation shield", basically reduction of sales taxes, while simultaneously raising taxes to preserve programs to "defend poor people".  So far, the crash in popularity seems delayed with those maneuvers, but it is hard to tell (like in Turkey, polling companies are divided into those that consistently predict a loss of the government in the next elections, and those that consistently predict a victory.

UK enjoys the highest electricity prices in Europe, which may divert attention of the population from hilarious revelries in the office of Prime Minister.  Because PM is resourceful, especially in PR terms, I suspect that he will regain the popularity with.a show of shared sacrifice, from now on, his staff will buy cheep booze only, and refrain from overconsumption when Her Majesty happens to be sad (e.g. funeral of her husband, humiliating conviction of her son, death of favorite dogs etc.).  And they will never damage garden furniture again.

USA is NG exporter, but the improvements in export have few winners, and a lot of people who pay more to heat their dwellings, and to drive, and electricity increases too, and the chain reaction drives inflation and makes folks grumpy, and another spectacular failure abroad can kill all hopes of the current government to be reelected.  In a current exchange of threats (a.k.a. dialog) between USA and Russia, USA can "inflict a price" and Russia can inflict a serious humiliation.  Inflicting a price never won an election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In long time, the situation will calm down and prices will drop significantly.

The difference will be in the interpretation of new price environment.

Before 2019 $ 500 per 1,000 m3 was an unacceptable price for natural gas in Europe.

In the era of the green madness of the next decade, European countries will be satisfied by paying only $ 500 for 1,000 m3.

Gazprom will open 100% of both pipelines to China and will send 88 billion with two pipes and a further tens of billion as LNG via Novatek.

Gas for Europe will be only not for everyone interested.

Gazprom due to limited spare capacity IMHO will resign from some contracts - it will forgive new contracts with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

The profit from these contracts was small, and the constant screams from this countries were terrible.

It will simply not conclude new contracts and let these countries buy themselves on the free global market for natural gas

After all, they do not have to buy from Gazprom and Gazprom is not obliged to sell them.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you even believe that drivel you post?  Give you a BIG hint, USA exports more gas than it imports and has done so for going on 5 years now and before that the imports of gas were less than 10% for a whopping 10 years and another 10 years of 5% of demand all of which came from Canada as it was closer to the demand point not because the USA did not have the NG... 

🤡

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

DECREE 
OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The award of state awards 
Russian Federation

For special work services to the State and people, to award the title of Hero of Labor of the Russian Federation Miller Alexey Borisovich - Chairman of the Board, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of PAO "Gazprom", City of Saint Petersburg.

http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202201200008?index=0&rangeSize=1

-January 31 chapter of "Gazproma" will be 60 years old.

In 2000-2001 he worked as Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation. Since 2001 - Chairman of the Board of PAO "Gazprom" and since 2002 - Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors "Gazprom".

 

 

Edited by Andrew Neopalimy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/02/igor-sechin-new-arctic-oil-discoveries-are-worlds-biggest 

Russia can do well economically by selling its oil and gas for 100 years or more. Eliminating its potential customers and turning them into enemies is not a bright idea. Putin is more interested in power than in helping his own people. RCW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 1/19/2022 at 3:19 PM, Tomasz said:

In long time, the situation will calm down and prices will drop significantly.

The difference will be in the interpretation of new price environment.

Before 2019 $ 500 per 1,000 m3 was an unacceptable price for natural gas in Europe.

In the era of the green madness of the next decade, European countries will be satisfied by paying only $ 500 for 1,000 m3.

Gazprom will open 100% of both pipelines to China and will send 88 billion with two pipes and a further tens of billion as LNG via Novatek.

Gas for Europe will be only not for everyone interested.

Gazprom due to limited spare capacity IMHO will resign from some contracts - it will forgive new contracts with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

The profit from these contracts was small, and the constant screams from this countries were terrible.

It will simply not conclude new contracts and let these countries buy themselves on the free global market for natural gas

After all, they do not have to buy from Gazprom and Gazprom is not obliged to sell them.

Good plan for Europe, bad for Russia in the long run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Crisis Meeting in Switzerland about electric Power issues. France stopped 10 Nuclear Power stations and Price spikes hit the biggest Swiss Power provider very hard. Question was should we ask for temporary Government support probably a few hundred millions. All those meetings between Christmas and New Year and very quiet.

They found a solution inside their Stock members which provided additional capital. (large Institutions)

First solution is to increase Hydro Power inside Switzerland

Second is to increase Solar and Wind and third is to build 2-3 Gas Power Stations in the near future.

Edited by Starschy

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/02/igor-sechin-new-arctic-oil-discoveries-are-worlds-biggest 

Russia can do well economically by selling its oil and gas for 100 years or more. Eliminating its potential customers and turning them into enemies is not a bright idea. Putin is more interested in power than in helping his own people. RCW

I don't think so. If you look at Russia its basically done the opposite to the West (1990-2010)

In that period the west effectively sacrificed its youth to preserve the wealth of the elderly. As a result the productive generation of today  see little purpose in being productive because the entire system is rigged against them (astronomical house prices, ever rising taxes to support the boomer population, state pension age keeps going up etc etc ) 

Russia, with various devaluations etc in the 1990's / 2000's to deflate away the debt gave its youth a clean balance sheet (hence Russias very low public debt compared to the west). This impoverished many older people but at least gave the Russia of tomorrow a good chance in moving forward. 

  • Like 3
  • Upvote 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Anyone who is young in Russia and wants to stay there for life is going to face living in a dictatorship with no real voice in governmental affairs. They will live a much poorer life materially and live in a very cold climate. Few will choose that over other options. The population of Russians is not growing much for those very reasons. 

Western Europe is crowded by comparison, but is drawing legal and illegal immigrants from all over the world. Russia has a very small economy by comparison to France, Germany, or Britain. It will remain that way without attracting investment and people. Investment is pulling out of Russia right now, because of its volatility. 

  • Downvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, NickW said:

I don't think so. If you look at Russia its basically done the opposite to the West (1990-2010)

In that period the west effectively sacrificed its youth to preserve the wealth of the elderly. As a result the productive generation of today  see little purpose in being productive because the entire system is rigged against them (astronomical house prices, ever rising taxes to support the boomer population, state pension age keeps going up etc etc ) 

Russia, with various devaluations etc in the 1990's / 2000's to deflate away the debt gave its youth a clean balance sheet (hence Russias very low public debt compared to the west). This impoverished many older people but at least gave the Russia of tomorrow a good chance in moving forward. 

The departing Commies also gave everybody quite a dowry in the form of free housing. Check out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Former Warsaw Treaty countries are in the lead. Russia's is 89%

  • Like 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Anyone who is young in Russia and wants to stay there for life is going to face living in a dictatorship with no real voice in governmental affairs. They will live a much poorer life materially and live in a very cold climate. Few will choose that over other options. The population of Russians is not growing much for those very reasons. 

Western Europe is crowded by comparison, but is drawing legal and illegal immigrants from all over the world. Russia has a very small economy by comparison to France, Germany, or Britain. It will remain that way without attracting investment and people. Investment is pulling out of Russia right now, because of its volatility. 

Your understanding of dictatorship is brutally primitive. It is not really about having an individual dictator. Individuals do expire. Do you see a Putin Jr. anywhere.? You, yourself, live in a totalitarian society much more oppressive than Russia will ever be and have no voice in government affairs. Your government works for somebody else. There is nothing special about your particular method of dropping a piece of paper into a ballot box, except being more broken than most. Your own population is also not growing, discounting immigration. More and more will chose Russia over the God-awful police state USA once they become familiarized with the real situation. I am so glad I don't live there myself anymore.

Russia is the 2nd or 3rd most attractive emigration destination in the world after the USA and maybe Germany in some years. OK, I checked #2 for 2021

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/immigration-by-country

Everybody from the former USSR wants to go there. Especially the Ukrainians, whose country you destroyed. Those people are much easier to integrate, because they already know the language and share the same culture to a significant extent.

Russia never had much any a way of foreign investment. The GDP growth for 2021 was 4.5%. Manufacturing growth was 7%. Without foreign investment. We don't need your dollars. You, yourself, are progressively turning them into a toxic asset. Soon enough, another Evil Empire will bite the dust. Just like USSR, where nobody believed it was gonna happen till it was too late. The difference  is that Russians turned out to be very self-sufficient people who managed to survive while not getting paid a cent for months to years. Never relied on government much. You, on the other hand, will start to die out and kill each other whenever your local grocery store runs out of TP. That much we've already seen. You've got to stock up on ammo, Ron, quick. You've got to protect your TP.

Next time, do check the actual stats before echoing propagandist boilerplates with no base in reality? 

 

  • Like 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 1/18/2022 at 11:29 PM, Piotr Berman said:

Tomasz: As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

It seems that even if Russia gives up its entire NG export, it still has trade surplus, and if it gives up NG export only to countries that would join putative "super sanctions" that USA is developing for the eventuality of a was termed "invasion on Ukraine", Russia would still have current account surplus.  Adding sanctions on the trade in Russian bonds is hilarious in this context.

In the meantime, Western societies seem to have low tolerance for inflation driven by world commodities.  Because I know only few languages, I can only witness the loss of popularity of governments in USA and UK, and the strange maneuvers aim to preserve the popularity of the current government.  The latest styles itself as the "United Right Wing" and "Defender of poor people", so it devised a plan to fight inflation with "inflation shield", basically reduction of sales taxes, while simultaneously raising taxes to preserve programs to "defend poor people".  So far, the crash in popularity seems delayed with those maneuvers, but it is hard to tell (like in Turkey, polling companies are divided into those that consistently predict a loss of the government in the next elections, and those that consistently predict a victory.

UK enjoys the highest electricity prices in Europe, which may divert attention of the population from hilarious revelries in the office of Prime Minister.  Because PM is resourceful, especially in PR terms, I suspect that he will regain the popularity with.a show of shared sacrifice, from now on, his staff will buy cheep booze only, and refrain from overconsumption when Her Majesty happens to be sad (e.g. funeral of her husband, humiliating conviction of her son, death of favorite dogs etc.).  And they will never damage garden furniture again.

USA is NG exporter, but the improvements in export have few winners, and a lot of people who pay more to heat their dwellings, and to drive, and electricity increases too, and the chain reaction drives inflation and makes folks grumpy, and another spectacular failure abroad can kill all hopes of the current government to be reelected.  In a current exchange of threats (a.k.a. dialog) between USA and Russia, USA can "inflict a price" and Russia can inflict a serious humiliation.  Inflicting a price never won an election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As an American I don’t win if Russia does well or not. Your framing of reality may all be true but who cares. The US has 3 states with larger GDP than Russia and I don’t care what happens their state. Canada and Australia have a bigger GDP than Russia and mostly I don’t care what happens there. 
Russia is relevant at the moment because of 100,000 troops and a silly leader who is trying to jump the pecking order of importance on the global stage. He claimed his military power with the hypersonic missiles. An important irreplaceable power. Did I get that right? He claimed Russia as a world economic powerhouse. So if Putin is comfortable, what happened. The Ukraine seems like little threat to me. How can Russia be more threatened by border countries wanting to join NATO. Missiles fly 1,000’s of miles, planes fly over 1,000 miles. Subs, drones etc, The modern battlefield is not a border anymore. Any Area by either combatant can be hit at any time. Loading up with troops does what. Nobody can protect a troop or thousands of troops. Are you guys that dumb not to know this? Why wouldn’t you question Putin troop strategy. Oh yea, you can’t. Why? Is it Biden’s fault. Lol

  • Great Response! 1
  • Rolling Eye 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Boat said:

As an American I don’t win if Russia does well or not. Your framing of reality may all be true but who cares. The US has 3 states with larger GDP than Russia and I don’t care what happens their state. Canada and Australia have a bigger GDP than Russia and mostly I don’t care what happens there. 
Russia is relevant at the moment because of 100,000 troops and a silly leader who is trying to jump the pecking order of importance on the global stage. He claimed his military power with the hypersonic missiles. An important irreplaceable power. Did I get that right? He claimed Russia as a world economic powerhouse. So if Putin is comfortable, what happened. The Ukraine seems like little threat to me. How can Russia be more threatened by border countries wanting to join NATO. Missiles fly 1,000’s of miles, planes fly over 1,000 miles. Subs, drones etc, The modern battlefield is not a border anymore. Any Area by either combatant can be hit at any time. Loading up with troops does what. Nobody can protect a troop or thousands of troops. Are you guys that dumb not to know this? Why wouldn’t you question Putin troop strategy. Oh yea, you can’t. Why? Is it Biden’s fault. Lol

Btw, the OPEC+ Russia attempt to kill the American fracker didn’t work. Cutting nat gas and not replacing oil taken off the market by Covid demand has been profitable for Putin.  That won’t last to long in the grand scheme of things. Fracking is back to growing and higher prices helps them as well. The last of the good years. Around 2025 there will be several more electric car factories. Guessing around 2026 we’ll see peak oil. Then the drop in demand will begin. Putin is doing a great job keeping Russian debt down. 
The US and many other FF producers will still have a large market but who will be willing to step out of an oversupplied market. It is possible high prices may not happen for a long time. 
These new electric cars and AC will drive renewable demand. My opinion says nat gas is good for base power for now. I mean how many batteries can you buy and install. I think the possible length of storms outlasts these piles of batteries.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Transit of Russian gas to Poland through Ukraine has been suspended since January 19
There is no information about the resumption of transit yet

KIEV, 24 January. /TASS/. The transit of Russian natural gas to Poland through Ukraine has not been carried out since January 19. This is evidenced by operational data of the company "GTS Operator of Ukraine".

It is noted that the transit of gas to Poland through the GIS "Drozdovichi" on January 17 amounted to 3.766 million cubic meters. m, January 18 - 241 thousand cubic meters. m, and from January 19, zero level is fixed.

In December 2019, Moscow and Kiev agreed to extend the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory for the period from 2020 to 2024, with the possibility of extending the agreement for another 10 years. The contract provides for the transit of 65 billion cubic meters. m of gas in 2020 and 40 bcm. m annually from 2021 to 2024. The transit arrangement implies a "pump or pay" principle, where transit fees are charged for the amount of booked capacity, even if actual pumping is less.

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13508059

REFERENCE

Since the beginning of January 2022, the volume of transit through the gas measuring station (GIS) Drozdovichi has fluctuated widely - from 2.839 million m3 (January 14, 2022) to 10.673 million m3 (January 3, 2022), demonstrating an unstable downward trend.
On January 17, 2022, gas transit to Poland through the GIS Drozdovichi on January 17 amounted to 3.766 million m3, on January 18 - 241 thousand m3, and from January 19 to January 22 (the latest available data from the OGTSU) the zero level is recorded.

In general, on January 22, 2022, the GTS of Ukraine received 44.55 million m3 of gas, of which 19.87 million m3 was received through the Sudzha GIS (entrance to Ukraine of the gas pipeline Urengoy - Pomary - Uzhgorod) and 24.68 million m3 - through the Sohranivka GIS (entry to Ukraine IHL Soyuz).
Incl. through GIS Germanovichi in Poland, there was zero gas flow at the entrance to the GTS of Ukraine.
At the exit from the GTS of Ukraine, the volume amounted to 47.958 million m3, incl. through well logging Uzhgorod (to Slovakia) 27.285 million m3, well logging Beregovo (to Hungary) 3.408 million m3, well logging Orlovka (Romania) - 4.027 million m3, to Moldova - 13.238 million m3.

In total, in 2021, gas transit to Poland through the Ukrainian GTS amounted to 3.8 bcm, which is 1% more than in 2020.
In general, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine amounted to 41.6 billion m3, which is higher than the contractual volumes under Gazprom's long-term transit contract (40 billion m3/year or 109.5 million m3/day).
Additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS were booked by Gazprom at monthly and daily auctions, gaining a total of 44.4 billion m3 of transit capacity, i.e. 2.8 billion m3 of additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS remained unused.
From October 2021, Gazprom refuses to book monthly additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS, and additional capacities remain unclaimed at quarterly auctions.
Additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS for February 2022 were also not booked by Gazprom. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Does anyone know if, in a practical time frame, it would be possible to do a "Berlin Sea Lift" of US LNG to Europe this winter? At full market prices, of course.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just now, Craig W said:

Does anyone know if, in a practical time frame, it would be possible to do a "Berlin Sea Lift" of US LNG to Europe this winter? At full market prices, of course.

There aren’t enough LNG ships in the world  and regassification terminals in Europe to do that.  It is enough to make a major dent in the situation though.  It would not be enough to ‘save’ European industry over the winter but it would probably be enough to prevent anyone from freezing to death.  

  • Like 3
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

There aren’t enough LNG ships in the world  and regassification terminals in Europe to do that.  It is enough to make a major dent in the situation though.  It would not be enough to ‘save’ European industry over the winter but it would probably be enough to prevent anyone from freezing to death.  

I think the logical thing is to look at all the other worldwide sources of LNG and piped natural gas plus other fuel sources of which there are several. Coal, wind, solar, wood, wood pellets, oil, gasoline etc. There are many other ships that can deliver those too. Europe can buy from many sources. The stupidity of the greenies is that they are opposing fossil fuels right now in the midst of this crisis. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I think the logical thing is to look at all the other worldwide sources of LNG and piped natural gas plus other fuel sources of which there are several. Coal, wind, solar, wood, wood pellets, oil, gasoline etc. There are many other ships that can deliver those too. Europe can buy from many sources. The stupidity of the greenies is that they are opposing fossil fuels right now in the midst of this crisis. 

I think you just throw those statements out there without proof. I consider myself a greenie but do not want renewables replacing Coal for example unless they are cost competitive. I just want the health and environmental costs to be factored in when making the decision. With Putin as a supplier I would choose both nuclear and coal instead of imports as much as possible. Same with Iran. These countries have a history of being unstable, threatening and being ideology driven. Europe surprised the world with its fear of nuclear having more consideration than its fear of Putin causing mischief in land grabs and market manipulation. True that both have a steady bad reputation but nuclear gets you closer to energy independence. 
 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Which currency will become the reserve currency if the US goes through Redenomination? With the national debt at $29 trillion and increasing $1 trillion every 2 months, hyperinflation is around the corner.

Even the Thai Baht is rising compared to the dollar.

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Because of the Carpathian mountains, Russia has a strong interest in Ukraine.

We need to be careful about looking too weak. Germany could have ruled Europe if there was no WW2. One sllght miscalculation resulted in 60 million dead. Oopsie! Being right is small consolation if you are dead.

At this point, I see:

1. Russia can steamroll over any part or all of Ukraine.

2. Europe will not choose freezing over cooperation with Russia, if Russia gives a big enough lie.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, ronwagn said:

I think the logical thing is to look at all the other worldwide sources of LNG and piped natural gas plus other fuel sources of which there are several. Coal, wind, solar, wood, wood pellets, oil, gasoline etc. There are many other ships that can deliver those too. Europe can buy from many sources. The stupidity of the greenies is that they are opposing fossil fuels right now in the midst of this crisis. 

For Europe right now, any liquid or solid fuels like coal, wood, oil, etc. are of very limited utility - they don't have any spare facilities to burn them in.  In theory they could convert some of the natural gas plants to burn oil, but even at current prices natural gas is still cheaper than oil on an energy basis, so it would be horrifically expensive.  It would probably be cheaper just to idle heavy industries until you don't need to burn any significant amounts of oil for electricity.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Michael Sanches said:

Because of the Carpathian mountains, Russia has a strong interest in Ukraine.

We need to be careful about looking too weak. Germany could have ruled Europe if there was no WW2. One sllght miscalculation resulted in 60 million dead. Oopsie! Being right is small consolation if you are dead.

At this point, I see:

1. Russia can steamroll over any part or all of Ukraine.

2. Europe will not choose freezing over cooperation with Russia, if Russia gives a big enough lie.

What about Carpathian mountains? There is nothing there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What about Carpathian mountains? There is nothing there.

The mountains are there, and from a strategic perspective that makes them important. If you are Russia, and hold those mountains, then it's a source of security from invasion along the southwestern front of Europe. By contrast, if you are western and central Europe, if you hold them,  any potential threat or invasion of Russia is much simpler.  As a general sort of thing, whoever controls that region has the geostrategic initiative in central Europe as a whole, because your side has a lot more military options than the other side.  That's been the case since the rise of the Roman empire around 0 AD. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

21 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

There aren’t enough LNG ships in the world  and regassification terminals in Europe to do that.  It is enough to make a major dent in the situation though.  It would not be enough to ‘save’ European industry over the winter but it would probably be enough to prevent anyone from freezing to death.  

The possible way round this would be to suspend carbon trading and allow run coal plants to run flat out - that assumes of course enough coal is available on world markets. Not sure how much flex capacity the US and Canadian industries have. Also South Africa & Columbia. 

Also many CCGT plant will run on fuel distillate as a back up . Given oil prices are low compared to gas thats an option in some circumstances. 

Edited by NickW

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

The mountains are there, and from a strategic perspective that makes them important. If you are Russia, and hold those mountains, then it's a source of security from invasion along the southwestern front of Europe. By contrast, if you are western and central Europe, if you hold them,  any potential threat or invasion of Russia is much simpler.  As a general sort of thing, whoever controls that region has the geostrategic initiative in central Europe as a whole, because your side has a lot more military options than the other side.  That's been the case since the rise of the Roman empire around 0 AD. 

They are very shallow. So shallow, that you don't notice anything from the ground.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.