Tomasz

Europe gas market -how it started how its going

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The volume of gas production in Russia in January 2022 increased by 1.1% compared to the same period in 2021 and amounted to 69.4 billion cubic meters. m, according to the operational report of the CDU TEK.

 

CDU TEK does not publish data on Gazprom separately. They are included as "calculated" in the production volume of "other subsoil users", which in January 2022 produced 49.9 billion cubic meters. m of gas.

 

The largest independent gas company, NOVATEK, produced 6.71 billion cubic meters in the first month of this year. m. Since the beginning of the year, PSA operators have produced 2.83 billion cubic meters. m.

 

Of the vertically integrated oil companies, the largest volumes of "blue fuel" in January 2022 were produced by NK Rosneft - 3.61 billion cubic meters. m, Gazprom Neft - 3 billion cubic meters. m, "LUKOIL" - 1.68 billion cubic meters. m, Surgutneftegaz - 756.19 million cubic meters. m, "RussNeft" - 184.85 million cubic meters. m, Tatneft - 77.95 million cubic meters. m, Slavneft - 70.91 million cubic meters. m, "Bashneft" - 67.77 million cubic meters. m..

 

The CDU TEK still takes into account the production of Bashneft separately, despite the fact that since 2016 the company has been part of PJSC NK Rosneft.

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On 2/1/2022 at 10:56 PM, Tomasz said:

Increase of "Gazprom" in the number of requests for pumping gas through the territory of Ukraine almost 1.7 times - the expected phenomenon, "blue fuel" will go to Europe and will be directed at current consumption, and not on adding underground gas storage (UGS).

Such an opinion was expressed in an interview with the Prime agency, the leading expert of the Foundation for National Energy Security (ФНЭБ) Igor Юшков.

He pointed out that the increase in pumping is able to reduce spot gas prices, but this will be a rather psychological reaction of the market. "The market will" digest "this news within 1-2 days, after which the prices will return to the previous levels" - said the expert.

According to Shkov, in January the weather in Europe was warm, and there they tried to collect the maximum amount of gas from the UGS to consume cheaper fuel. "But the underground storage facilities are exhausted, and the Europeans are already dealing with the limitations of the episode selection. This means that the less gas in the underground storage facilities, the less gas you can get from there, the pressure drops," he explained. "Therefore, Europe will inevitably increase imports. The less gas in the UGS - the more there will be heavy imports. So, as you can see, they also turn to Gazprom and increase the volume of supplies. "
The expert suggested that the Europeans would send 100% of the gas to the current consumption, because the selection of UGS fuel continues and there are in fact no temporary "windows" for its extraction.
"The heating season is in full swing, and everything that is missing from the UGS, compensated by imports. And the further, the closer to the end of the heating season, the more imported gas will control the gas that is taken from the warehouse" - he noted and added that in as they run out of storage, as the demand for gas grows, perhaps "Gazprom" will increase consumption by Poland.
"If there is a demand - and other gas pipelines will already burden, it will be natural," said Oshkov. "Europeans are very lucky with the weather. If the temperature was slightly lower, the UGS should be empty by the end of January".
According to experts, the increase in gas injection volume could positively affect spot gas prices. "Markets look at it positively, they will say - these are additional quantities, okay, there will be no deficit. The price may drop a bit, - he explained." But it will rather be a psychological reaction of the market. "this message and it will come back to previous results".

Gas prices in Europe, after the jump on January 24, continue to corrective decline, already falling below USD 900 per thousand cubic meters on the first day of February and losing 12% compared to yesterday's calculated price, data from the London ICE exchange show.
Gazprom's production in January increased by 1% compared to the same period last year, to 47.4 billion cubic meters of gas, the company reports.
 

Thankfully, at least in the UK we have had a very mild winter so far. I think the UK is Europes (Not inc Russia) 2nd biggest consumer of gas. I'm sure if it had been a severe winter it would have been rolling power cuts by now. I worry that this may just result in kicking the can down the road....

Our house - 4 bed we are using 5-6m3 a day. Bills still going to rocket though. 

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On 2/1/2022 at 4:28 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not very informative.

I am genuinely trying to find whether there is any merit to current reports of allegedly aggravated Russian aggression, but haven't been able to find any. Appears to be 100% made up. Which is amazing, given that the regular level of reporting on this was completely made up already.

Preparations of all kinds that have been ongoing, including in Belarus closer to Kiev. Recent increase in numbers of troops. You are playing stupid Andrei. 

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3 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Preparations of all kinds that have been ongoing, including in Belarus closer to Kiev. Recent increase in numbers of troops. You are playing stupid Andrei. 

You are supposed to have at least 3x the number of troops to go on offensive. Russia's got 1/2 as many as Ukraine.

Are you playing stupid? Name me one reason to invade Ukraine now? Why didn't they do it back in 2014 already? Would've been much easier.

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7 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/02/03/poland-buys-shipment-u-s-liquefied-natural-gas-send-ukraine/

Poland Buys Shipment of U.S. Liquefied Natural Gas to Send to Ukraine

143 Poland

If true, another stupid political stunt done at a loss. It makes no business sense to actually cart American LNG to Poland. The proper way to do it is to unload on the Atlantic coast of Spain or Portugal and swap that LNG for Novatek's, which is much closer. This is what PGNiG does on a slow news day, anyway.

The Baltic Pipe is even stupider than this. What it carves out of allocation of Norwegian gas from Germany further downstream, Germany has to compensate by Gazprom's gas yet again. Norway's production levels remain flat.

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2 hours ago, ronwagn said:

Preparations of all kinds that have been ongoing, including in Belarus closer to Kiev. Recent increase in numbers of troops. You are playing stupid Andrei. 

The Ukrainian Rada just decided to take a break til mid-February. Do you reckon they are going to be digging trenches? In the Maldives?

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13 hours ago, NickW said:

Thankfully, at least in the UK we have had a very mild winter so far. I think the UK is Europes (Not inc Russia) 2nd biggest consumer of gas. I'm sure if it had been a severe winter it would have been rolling power cuts by now. I worry that this may just result in kicking the can down the road....

Our house - 4 bed we are using 5-6m3 a day. Bills still going to rocket though. 

If you were in the US, based on our typical residential retail natural gas prices your monthly bill would come up to ~ $65 which is under 50 pounds a month - to small to budget for if you have a home of that size.  What’s it going to cost you? 

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5 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

If you were in the US, based on our typical residential retail natural gas prices your monthly bill would come up to ~ $65 which is under 50 pounds a month - to small to budget for if you have a home of that size.  What’s it going to cost you? 

Currently we are paying 3.83p / kwh. Our annual usage is about 11700kwh. So at current prices £448 a year plus about £75 standing charge. There is talk of the rate going up to 8.38p/kwh so more than doubling in price. 

Electric we use 2700 kwh a year currently at 19.3p/kwh so £521 plus £75 SC. Talk of the rate going up to 37p / kwh

We could be looking at our annual bill going from around £1060 to £2100. In isolation its not too much but national insurance is going up (another £1000 out of our pockets), tax allowances frozen, pay freezes, council tax going up, food prices rocketing.....

This year I am externally insulating some walls and putting 3 triple glazed windows in. Id like to put in another 2300w of solar as payback would be about 4 years if prices go to 37p/kwh. It wouldn't be on a feed in tariff so any not used goes to heating water offsetting the gas bill (although we also have solar thermal). 

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12 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You are supposed to have at least 3x the number of troops to go on offensive. Russia's got 1/2 as many as Ukraine.

Are you playing stupid? Name me one reason to invade Ukraine now? Why didn't they do it back in 2014 already? Would've been much easier.

In 2014 we know for sure Mr Putin cancelled the full invasion even all Military have opted for invasion. Ukraine is not able to fight a war. After three weeks Money is running out.

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2 hours ago, NickW said:

Currently we are paying 3.83p / kwh. Our annual usage is about 11700kwh. So at current prices £448 a year plus about £75 standing charge. There is talk of the rate going up to 8.38p/kwh so more than doubling in price. 

Electric we use 2700 kwh a year currently at 19.3p/kwh so £521 plus £75 SC. Talk of the rate going up to 37p / kwh

We could be looking at our annual bill going from around £1060 to £2100. In isolation its not too much but national insurance is going up (another £1000 out of our pockets), tax allowances frozen, pay freezes, council tax going up, food prices rocketing.....

This year I am externally insulating some walls and putting 3 triple glazed windows in. Id like to put in another 2300w of solar as payback would be about 4 years if prices go to 37p/kwh. It wouldn't be on a feed in tariff so any not used goes to heating water offsetting the gas bill (although we also have solar thermal). 

If that standing/minimum charge is per year, that’s not a bad price.  My calculation included the minimum charge as part of the monthly.  Our electric here is ~ $0.10/KWH (8 pence/kwh) and the minimum fee is waived once you exceed it.  This is MUCH lower than your current or proposed prices.  At the 37 pence/kWh rate I could buy a diesel generator and make my own power more cheaply.

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25 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

If that standing/minimum charge is per year, that’s not a bad price.  My calculation included the minimum charge as part of the monthly.  Our electric here is ~ $0.10/KWH (8 pence/kwh) and the minimum fee is waived once you exceed it.  This is MUCH lower than your current or proposed prices.  At the 37 pence/kWh rate I could buy a diesel generator and make my own power more cheaply.

Id also like to put a small mutlifuel stove in but Mrs doesn't want it. My feeling is this energy situation is going to play out for the whole decade. A well insulated house with PV, solar thermal and a stove nice insurance against disruption. Even a 4KW stove is enough to keep one room warm in the event of extended power cuts.

. I have 3 deep cycle batteries (and an inverter) from my yacht so can use them as a back up if necessary (they are at home over winter) to run the boiler for a few hours each day. 

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(edited)

28 minutes ago, NickW said:

Id also like to put a small mutlifuel stove in but Mrs doesn't want it. My feeling is this energy situation is going to play out for the whole decade. A well insulated house with PV, solar thermal and a stove nice insurance against disruption. Even a 4KW stove is enough to keep one room warm in the event of extended power cuts.

. I have 3 deep cycle batteries (and an inverter) from my yacht so can use them as a back up if necessary (they are at home over winter) to run the boiler for a few hours each day. 

Heating isn't the primary use for electricity here -  air conditioning is, and you must have electricity to make it work.  To the degree that we need heating, we use natural gas directly for that, but it's not the critical need - energy usage for heating is somewhere in the range of 10% of the usage required for cooling.    Heat and Electricity are separate and non interchangeable things in the market I am in.  

Edited by Eric Gagen
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On 2/4/2022 at 8:14 AM, ronwagn said:

Preparations of all kinds that have been ongoing, including in Belarus closer to Kiev. Recent increase in numbers of troops. You are playing stupid Andrei. 

Meanwhile, YouTube throws out official LDNR government channels and the three Ukrainian opposition channels, which Ze ordered off the air with no due procedure whatsoever last year. Only radically pro-government media left in the country, under threat of prosecution for treason. Of course, it must be Russia who is preparing a "false flag"

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(edited)

Russia does not apply the 2003 Iraqi variant to Ukraine, but has imposed energy sanctions on Ukraine. There are no coal supplies from Russia and Kazakhstan, reverse gas supplies are slowly being decommissioned, and Belarus is not selling Ukraine any spare electricity capacity.

 If Ukraine really wants to be independent from Russia, it should be independent in its entirety and not profit in any way from the transit of Russian gas, coal and oil.

If there are not enough funds in ukrainian  budget, then well those in the West who sponsored Maidan in 2014 should help her financially.

Russia cannot and absolutely should not help anti-Russian Ukraine in any way.

You have to be consistent, if you want to have Ukraine in the western sphere of influence, you have to pay money.

It will surely no longer function in such a way that Russia will de facto sponsor anti-Russian Ukraine in the Western sphere of influence.

Edited by Tomasz

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On 2/4/2022 at 1:29 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

If true, another stupid political stunt done at a loss. It makes no business sense to actually cart American LNG to Poland. The proper way to do it is to unload on the Atlantic coast of Spain or Portugal and swap that LNG for Novatek's, which is much closer. This is what PGNiG does on a slow news day, anyway.

The Baltic Pipe is even stupider than this. What it carves out of allocation of Norwegian gas from Germany further downstream, Germany has to compensate by Gazprom's gas yet again. Norway's production levels remain flat.

As far as I know it's true.  It's 1 part 'stupid stunt' but  my bet is that due to how bizarre the natural gas market in Europe is right now they actually got the gas cheaper shipped from the US than other sources due to the speed at which prices have changed.  That tanker load they got from the US probably got bought under a contract when prices were lower, and now gets sold at a premium, but still less than the current market price if they were to try and make a new deal.

Once you have the gas liquified, you might as well sail it close to the place that needs it - it doesn't really cost that much more to go the extra distance from Spain to Poland, and my guess would be that there isn't a good way to move gas from Spain to Poland anyway - all the pipelines in Europe run from supply in the East (Russia) or North (Norway), to demand in the South and West.  A 'swap' of LNG might work,  but it's an unnecessary complication - just unload one shipload one time, and it runs into the issue that you take gas bought under one set of contract conditions (cheap) for gas bought under current conditions (expensive) . 

This all  assumes that as tight as LNG markets are right now that Novatek didn't have any better deals for their LNG, and they probably do!  

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12 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

 

Once you have the gas liquified, you might as well sail it close to the place that needs it - it doesn't really cost that much more to go the extra distance from Spain to Poland, and my guess would be that there isn't a good way to move gas from Spain to Poland anyway - all the pipelines in Europe run from supply in the East (Russia) or North (Norway), to demand in the South and West. 

Thats not true. There are enough pipelines to send Gas from France, Spain, Italy or Turkey to Poland. Poland itself has a smaller LNG station. LNG prices are far higher as pipeline imports.

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(edited)

47 minutes ago, Starschy said:

Thats not true. There are enough pipelines to send Gas from France, Spain, Italy or Turkey to Poland. Poland itself has a smaller LNG station. LNG prices are far higher as pipeline imports.

yes, the pipelines are there, but you have to look at the planned and expected directions of flow.  As long as there is ANY gas flowing in one direction you can't send any the opposite direction.  Most pipelines are set up specifically for one directional flow - the meters, compressor stations, etc. only work going one way.  It is possible to set up pipelines for 2 direction flow, or to reverse them,  but it's not a quick process.  Depending on how the original pipeline was set up it make take months or years to do it. There are some pipelines which are set up to be able to go both directions, but they only use one at a time.  There are several like this in the US (the area I know best) which are set up to go from gas fields to consumers and storage facilities in the summer, then they reverse part of the lines and go from storage and gas fields to consumers in the winter. 

 

Edited by Eric Gagen
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1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

As far as I know it's true.  It's 1 part 'stupid stunt' but  my bet is that due to how bizarre the natural gas market in Europe is right now they actually got the gas cheaper shipped from the US than other sources due to the speed at which prices have changed.  That tanker load they got from the US probably got bought under a contract when prices were lower, and now gets sold at a premium, but still less than the current market price if they were to try and make a new deal.

Once you have the gas liquified, you might as well sail it close to the place that needs it - it doesn't really cost that much more to go the extra distance from Spain to Poland, and my guess would be that there isn't a good way to move gas from Spain to Poland anyway - all the pipelines in Europe run from supply in the East (Russia) or North (Norway), to demand in the South and West.  A 'swap' of LNG might work,  but it's an unnecessary complication - just unload one shipload one time, and it runs into the issue that you take gas bought under one set of contract conditions (cheap) for gas bought under current conditions (expensive) . 

This all  assumes that as tight as LNG markets are right now that Novatek didn't have any better deals for their LNG, and they probably do!  

I think I did already show you the counterstunt to this?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5771740/mmsi:273437230/imo:9778313/vessel:MARSHAL_VASILEVSKIY

The usually cheapest / the only large tanker on the region available for hire on short notice is Gazprom's FSRU Marshal Vasilevskiy, which is supposed to be ensuring energy security of Kaliningrad exclave. Who nobody is really threatening :)

Seems to be in Fluxys' Zeebrugge facility right now

https://www.fluxys.com/en/company/zeebrugge-lng

A known drop-off point for Novatek. Qatari Q-Max tankers usually get no further than this. (Or get stuck there on the way back after participation in the Polish stunt. Their onboard reliquification plant makes them more valuable as storage then transport right now)

Most Qatari LNG this far North is indirect Novatek swap for customers in Asia. Qatar is at near-war with Egypt and their tankers get treated iike crap at Suez.

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59 minutes ago, Starschy said:

Thats not true. There are enough pipelines to send Gas from France, Spain, Italy or Turkey to Poland. Poland itself has a smaller LNG station. LNG prices are far higher as pipeline imports.

Croatia!

http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/news/croatia,-poland-plan-lng-terminal-link-to-boost-energy-security.aspx

Poland got EU funding to supply Croatia with LNG.

Croatia got EU funding to supply Poland with LNG.

A win-win, except neither has really got any LNG :)

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18 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I think I did already show you the counterstunt to this?

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:5771740/mmsi:273437230/imo:9778313/vessel:MARSHAL_VASILEVSKIY

The usually cheapest / the only large tanker on the region available for hire on short notice is Gazprom's FSRU Marshal Vasilevskiy, which is supposed to be ensuring energy security of Kaliningrad exclave. Who nobody is really threatening :)

Seems to be in Fluxys' Zeebrugge facility right now

https://www.fluxys.com/en/company/zeebrugge-lng

A known drop-off point for Novatek. Qatari Q-Max tankers usually get no further than this. (Or get stuck there on the way back after participation in the Polish stunt. Their onboard reliquification plant makes them more valuable as storage then transport right now)

Most Qatari LNG this far North is indirect Novatek swap for customers in Asia. Qatar is at near-war with Egypt and their tankers get treated iike crap at Suez.

My point wasn't about how possible it was - merely that it wasn't done in this particular case, partly for political points and partly because the markets in Europe are so weird right now that the 'normal' expectations of what the most economical options don't necessarily apply for that transaction.  

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lt was the incompetent EU Commission with all those for and reverse flows. When you have dozens of companies from Spain to Lettland of course the system is not working.

The Russian have three Companies Gazprom for Gas, Rosneft for Oil and Lukoil for fine distribution. Novatec are not that important for Russian small customer.

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1 hour ago, Starschy said:

lt was the incompetent EU Commission with all those for and reverse flows. When you have dozens of companies from Spain to Lettland of course the system is not working.

The Russian have three Companies Gazprom for Gas, Rosneft for Oil and Lukoil for fine distribution. Novatec are not that important for Russian small customer.

It's not so much the number of European pipeline companies as it is the regulatory structure.  The US has a bunch of pipeline companies, but doesn't have similar problems (usually) because they are all under a well organized regulatory structure which treats them as common carriers, similar to telephone companies or railroads.  It's not perfect, but it works.  

The lack of ability to reverse pipelines in Europe isn't uncommon - most pipelines can't do it, because the potential benefit is so low most of the time, and the need is usually something which is easy to anticipate years in advance.  The various European states should/could have seen a need for alternate paths for natural gas imports, and did some work to prepare for it,  but put more effort into alternative non-gas options.  They made an error, which will take a while to correct. 

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The gas deal smells like Sakhalin

Gazprom's supplies to China under the new contract may be provided by the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field

Gazprom secured the signing of a large export contract with CNPC for gas supplies to China from the Far East - for 10 billion cubic meters. gas per year for 25 years. Neither the Russian nor the Chinese side gave any details of the agreement, not even its alleged resource base. This mystery can be explained by the fact that gas may be supplied from the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field on the Sakhalin shelf, which is subject to US sanctions, analysts believe.

Russian and Chinese leaders Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping announced on February 4 that they had signed a contract to supply pipeline gas to China via the Far East route. Its volume is 10 billion cubic meters, the deadline for completion is 25 years. The parties have not yet disclosed the date of entry into force of the contract, delivery costs and other project parameters. The price parameters of the contract have been mentioned since 2017, when Gazprom and CNPC concluded an agreement on the main terms of supply: it contained technical parameters such as the place of delivery, gas quality, etc.

The new long-term contract strengthens Russia's position on the Chinese gas market and allows Gazprom to diversify its portfolio in the face of geopolitical tensions with Europe.

The demand for gas in China increased by over 12% in 2021, to 370 billion cubic meters. As expected by the domestic company Sinopec, in 2022 it will increase by another 6.7% to 395 billion cubic meters. According to the forecasts of the Chinese National Energy Administration, gas consumption in China by 2025 will amount to 430-450 billion cubic meters.

Gazprom's Chinese portfolio already has a 30-year contract for the supply of 38 billion cubic meters. of gas annually via the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, deliveries began in December 2019. The Russian Federation and China are also working on a project for the transit of the Power of Siberia-2 gas pipeline through Mongolia with a capacity of 50 billion cubic meters. annually. While the parties only signed a report on the results of the project feasibility study, there is no binding supply contract. The deputy prime minister of Mongolia, Sainbuyangiin Amarsaikhan, informed that the gas pipeline may be launched in 2027-2028, construction is scheduled to start in 2024.

Thus, by the end of the decade, the volume of Russian gas supplies to China may reach 100 billion cubic meters. For comparison, in the last six years, Gazprom has delivered on average about 155 billion cubic meters to the EU countries. gas annually, and the total volume of exports to countries outside the CIS (including China and Turkey) in 2021 amounted to 185 billion cubic meters of gas.

The parties have never disclosed the cost parameters of the first contract for the supply of gas to China via the Siberian Power. It is only known that the Chinese CNPC has to pay for at least 85% of the supply volume, and the gas price under the contract is tied to the price of petroleum products with a nine-month delay. In 2020, Gazprom's revenues from gas sales to China amounted to 44.3 billion rubles, which, given the volume of 4.1 billion m3 of gas, gives an average price of around USD 150.2 per 1,000 sq m. m3. At the current oil price of $ 90 per barrel, the Chinese contract price could be around $ 325 per 1,000 cubic meters.

The raw material base for gas supplies from the Far East will probably be the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field, the largest in the region, which has been subject to US sector sanctions since 2015. For this reason, the start of development work has been repeatedly delayed. According to recent statements by Gazprom, production in it should start in 2023, and reach the "shelf" of 21 billion cubic meters. is planned by the end of the decade. As the raw material base of the already launched Kirinskoye field is not enough to increase supplies by 10 billion cubic meters, the contract is to be supplied with gas from the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye offshore field, which is to be launched no earlier than 2024, Dmitry Aki

Sergey Kapitonov, a gas analyst at the Skolkovo Energy Center, agrees that the required level of gas supplies to China can only be achieved through the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field. In his opinion, this may explain the lack of information provided by the parties about the new agreement.

The analyst notes that "closing" the field of exports to China avoids an escalation of the risk of sanctions, as partners "can create a legal structure that can operate under such conditions."

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Rosneft and the Chinese CNPC have agreed to supply oil for 10 years

Rosneft has signed an agreement with China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for the supply of 100 million tons of oil through Kazakhstan over 10 years. The document was signed by the Russian and Chinese delegations who came to Beijing with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the occasion of the opening of the Games.

"The raw material will be processed at factories in northwest China to meet the country's demand for petroleum products," said Rosneft. The company noted that 445 million tons of oil have been delivered to China since 2005. In addition, contracts for low-carbon development, digitization and technological cooperation were signed during the visit.

After the announcement of the new contract, the shares of Rosneft on the Moscow Stock Exchange increased by + 5.18% to 598.4 rubles.

Vladimir Putin traveled to Beijing today, where he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Putin said Russia will provide China with 10 billion cubic meters of gas annually from the Far East under the new contract. Gazprom has signed a long-term contract with CNPC.

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