Europe gas market -how it started how its going

[nsdp + 449]

12 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

As far as I know it's true.  It's 1 part 'stupid stunt' but  my bet is that due to how bizarre the natural gas market in Europe is right now they actually got the gas cheaper shipped from the US than other sources due to the speed at which prices have changed.  That tanker load they got from the US probably got bought under a contract when prices were lower, and now gets sold at a premium, but still less than the current market price if they were to try and make a new deal.

Once you have the gas liquified, you might as well sail it close to the place that needs it - it doesn't really cost that much more to go the extra distance from Spain to Poland, and my guess would be that there isn't a good way to move gas from Spain to Poland anyway - all the pipelines in Europe run from supply in the East (Russia) or North (Norway), to demand in the South and West.  A 'swap' of LNG might work,  but it's an unnecessary complication - just unload one shipload one time, and it runs into the issue that you take gas bought under one set of contract conditions (cheap) for gas bought under current conditions (expensive) . 

This all  assumes that as tight as LNG markets are right now that Novatek didn't have any better deals for their LNG, and they probably do!  

That has been 28 tankers loaded since 15 Dec. and other 16 redirected.  With the two new terminals at Lake Charles and the Texas side of the Sabine river, the US can load 7 tankers at once.  We still have problems getting  the casing head gas out of the Permian.

The Rotterdam swap  has problems with Russia cutting back on volumes shipped through the Ukraine and Germany can't reverse flows

[ronwagn + 6,290]

21 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Meanwhile, YouTube throws out official LDNR government channels and the three Ukrainian opposition channels, which Ze ordered off the air with no due procedure whatsoever last year. Only radically pro-government media left in the country, under threat of prosecution for treason. Of course, it must be Russia who is preparing a "false flag"

Don't feel bad, President Trump got thrown off Twitter and Facebook before the last election while they banned all comments about Joe Biden, Hunter, Chinese prostitutes, 31 million dollars received from China by the family.  Mark Zuckerberg financed a lot of the cheating that went on in urban areas all around the country.

As Stalin said: I don't care who is voting, I care about who counts the votes. 

Conservatives are facing the full fury of the deep state, the demoncrats, the media, Silicon Valley, the educational establishment, the corporations that support China and who make money off the cheap labor of illegal immigrants. They ally with the LGBTQ, as well. 

God willing, things will change next November. We will be trying to hold better elections. 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ronwagn
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[ronwagn + 6,290]

1 hour ago, nsdp said:

That has been 28 tankers loaded since 15 Dec. and other 16 redirected.  With the two new terminals at Lake Charles and the Texas side of the Sabine river, the US can load 7 tankers at once.  We still have problems getting  the casing head gas out of the Permian.

The Rotterdam swap  has problems with Russia cutting back on volumes shipped through the Ukraine and Germany can't reverse flows

Please explain casing head gas problems. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

6 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

It's not so much the number of European pipeline companies as it is the regulatory structure.  The US has a bunch of pipeline companies, but doesn't have similar problems (usually) because they are all under a well organized regulatory structure which treats them as common carriers, similar to telephone companies or railroads.  It's not perfect, but it works.  

The lack of ability to reverse pipelines in Europe isn't uncommon - most pipelines can't do it, because the potential benefit is so low most of the time, and the need is usually something which is easy to anticipate years in advance.  The various European states should/could have seen a need for alternate paths for natural gas imports, and did some work to prepare for it,  but put more effort into alternative non-gas options.  They made an error, which will take a while to correct. 

LNG can be shipped by rail, truck, or small ships that can travel the rivers of Europe. There are multiple sizes of tanks and systems to hold them. They could be supplied from many companies who produce them. Where there is the will there is a way. I don't know if it is cost effective, but IMHO it should be done and would be helpful. The European Union has the money and should use it now. 

https://cryostar.com/datas-pdf/booklet/en/Equipment-and-Solutions-LNG-NG-STARVAPTM-REGASIFICATION-APPLICATION.pdf

 

Edited February 6, 2022 by ronwagn
reference

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

23 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Don't feel bad, President Trump got thrown off Twitter and Facebook before the last election while they banned all comments about Joe Biden, Hunter, Chinese prostitutes, 31 million dollars received from China by the family.  Mark Zuckerberg financed a lot of the cheating that went on in urban areas all around the country.

As Stalin said: I don't care who is voting, I care about who counts the votes. 

Conservatives are facing the full fury of the deep state, the demoncrats, the media, Silicon Valley, the educational establishment, the corporations that support China and who make money off the cheap labor of illegal immigrants. They ally with the LGBTQ, as well. 

God willing, things will change next November. We will be trying to hold better elections. 

But it is Russia that is a fascist dictatorship? Despite having no net censorship whatsoever?

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

LNG can be shipped by rail, truck, or small ships that can travel the rivers of Europe. There are multiple sizes of tanks and systems to hold them. They could be supplied from many companies who produce them. Where there is the will there is a way. I don't know if it is cost effective, but IMHO it should be done and would be helpful. The European Union has the money and should use it now. 

Alternatively, they can simply stop abusing Gazprom.

[ronwagn + 6,290]

2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

But it is Russia that is a fascist dictatorship? Despite having no net censorship whatsoever?

Since when has Russia stopped murdering reporters and stopping any meaningful candidate. Navalny is only one of a long parade of opposition leaders extinguished. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

8 hours ago, Starschy said:

lt was the incompetent EU Commission with all those for and reverse flows. When you have dozens of companies from Spain to Lettland of course the system is not working.

The Russian have three Companies Gazprom for Gas, Rosneft for Oil and Lukoil for fine distribution. Novatec are not that important for Russian small customer.

All three really do everything, with exception of Gazprom, who's got a monopoly on pipeline gas exports out of Russia. (but not Azerbaijan, where Lukoil plays) The corresponding oil pipeline monopoly is the Transneft.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Since when has Russia stopped murdering reporters and stopping any meaningful candidate. Navalny is only one of a long parade of opposition leaders extinguished. 

1) Since early 2000s? See Russia there?

https://cpj.org/data/killed/2021/?status=Killed&motiveConfirmed[]=Confirmed&type[]=Journalist&start_year=2021&end_year=2021&group_by=location

USA is a more common guest on these lists than Russia.

2) What "Russia?"  You mean the government? They haven't killed any. In case you didn't know, were all the previous cases investigated, prosecuted and somebody is doing time for them.

3) Your Goebbels propaganda press has a very low standard of who is a journalist is. Pretty much anybody Russian who gets himself whacked turn into a famous journalist and/or opposition leader overnight. A journalist is somebody who is at least a member of some kind of press association or guild, BTW. Those are not very hard to procure and get you free stuff.

4) Navalny is not an "opposition leader," but an agent of destruction paid for by foreign powers. He has no constructive program whatsoever and is simply against everything that government does, no matter what it is. Also is against any other opposition leaders (denies the existence of any other opposition whatsoever), BTW. His organization lives by the  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Führerprinzip. If you thought Putin was authoritarian, wait till you see this guy.

5) He is a convicted criminal, doing time for violating probation from a case that is clearly embezzlement, and not anything political. Does USA allow convicted felons on probation to run for political office? Neither does Russia. When he still was eligible to ran, he came in second (in 2013 mayoral election in Moscow) Don't you think that it is not quite presidential-grade candidacy yet? (Was likely his swan song, will never get remotely as much again, running for whatever office. Sorry, your toy broke)

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

29 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Since when has Russia stopped murdering reporters and stopping any meaningful candidate. Navalny is only one of a long parade of opposition leaders extinguished. 

I love that one

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/23/world/europe/russia-ekho-moskvy-tatyana-felgenhauer.html

Turns out the woman was telepathically communicating with a fan, so he had to kill her so she stops seducing him. Interestingly, the fan was from Israel, so they couldn't cry for antisemitism.

And this one

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44296672.

Duh

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-44307611

Just a show. With real pig blood, though?

See, appallingly low standards to frame the Russian government.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

19 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

It's not so much the number of European pipeline companies as it is the regulatory structure.  The US has a bunch of pipeline companies, but doesn't have similar problems (usually) because they are all under a well organized regulatory structure which treats them as common carriers, similar to telephone companies or railroads.  It's not perfect, but it works.  

The lack of ability to reverse pipelines in Europe isn't uncommon - most pipelines can't do it, because the potential benefit is so low most of the time, and the need is usually something which is easy to anticipate years in advance.  The various European states should/could have seen a need for alternate paths for natural gas imports, and did some work to prepare for it,  but put more effort into alternative non-gas options.  They made an error, which will take a while to correct. 

They are still not really any significant reasons to reverse the pipelines out of Russia or Norway. Because it is kinda obvious which way the gas goes. I was amazed to find out that the pipeline through Poland is actually reversible on one end. Those through Ukraine cannot do that, though. All the reversing there is virtual. (Which would not be so bad if Ukraine did not have to pay the TTF hub spot price + transit fees as if the gas came from the Netherlands.  This despite being up to 70% self-sufficient. This is touted as a major success in shaking the Russian yoke locally, but is really a blatant scheme to enrich some local oligarchs and their Western friends)

Edited February 6, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

20 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Croatia!

http://www.gasprocessingnews.com/news/croatia,-poland-plan-lng-terminal-link-to-boost-energy-security.aspx

Poland got EU funding to supply Croatia with LNG.

Croatia got EU funding to supply Poland with LNG.

A win-win, except neither has really got any LNG

Much like the EU policy of relying on interconnectors rather than building / diversifying new production capacity. 

[Eric Gagen + 713]

8 hours ago, ronwagn said:

LNG can be shipped by rail, truck, or small ships that can travel the rivers of Europe. There are multiple sizes of tanks and systems to hold them. They could be supplied from many companies who produce them. Where there is the will there is a way. I don't know if it is cost effective, but IMHO it should be done and would be helpful. The European Union has the money and should use it now. 

https://cryostar.com/datas-pdf/booklet/en/Equipment-and-Solutions-LNG-NG-STARVAPTM-REGASIFICATION-APPLICATION.pdf

 

What could be done isn't the same as what can be done.  None of the potentially useful infrastructure you are proposing exists in quantities meaningful enough to have an impact.  Given a couple of years it could be constructed, but that doesn't help right now,  and would guarantee extremely high prices due to the cost of transporting large quantities of LNG in such extremely expensive penny packets.  For the extreme expense, you might as well just go all solar, or convert everything to run on fuel oil and not bother with natural gas at all.  

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

What could be done isn't the same as what can be done.  None of the potentially useful infrastructure you are proposing exists in quantities meaningful enough to have an impact.  Given a couple of years it could be constructed, but that doesn't help right now,  and would guarantee extremely high prices due to the cost of transporting large quantities of LNG in such extremely expensive penny packets.  For the extreme expense, you might as well just go all solar, or convert everything to run on fuel oil and not bother with natural gas at all.  

In the same vein that Admiral of the Fleet, jackie Fisher said naval wars are fought dressed as you are this situation needs to be addressed with resources that are to hand not fanciful ideas about what could be done.

In terms of Europe

• Extending life of coal plant
• Extending life of nuclear plant (perhaps run at 50% output beyond design life if safe to do so)
• Big focus on end use efficiency 
• Convert some smaller gas plants to fuel distillate
• Speed up planning pipeline for small modular units - solar, onshore wind, biogas, small hydro, waste to energy

[Eric Gagen + 713]

6 minutes ago, NickW said:

In the same vein that Admiral of the Fleet, jackie Fisher said naval wars are fought dressed as you are this situation needs to be addressed with resources that are to hand not fanciful ideas about what could be done.

In terms of Europe

• Extending life of coal plant
• Extending life of nuclear plant (perhaps run at 50% output beyond design life if safe to do so)
• Big focus on end use efficiency 
• Convert some smaller gas plants to fuel distillate
• Speed up planning pipeline for small modular units - solar, onshore wind, biogas, small hydro, waste to energy

Yep - you 'fight with what you have' and try to plan ahead for the next generation.

At least during this specific winter, there are probably a couple of other ideas that could be checked out:

Idle/reduce output on highly energy intensive industries (aluminum smelting, fertilizer production) where the inputs can be saved or reduced for use elsewhere - I understand this has been done to some degree based on the cost of energy inputs, but has anyone looked at it from a systemic perspective?  My guess is only haphazardly

building/facility closure/shutdowns - thinking about things like having hotels close unused capacity and turn of the heat, cut of heat to museums, and other 'public attractions'  which are not critical to the public.  Maybe this has been done, and maybe it hasn't.  Maybe the savings are too small to be worth the trouble, or maybe it's simply to impractical, but has anyone assessed it yet? 

Edited February 6, 2022 by Eric Gagen

[NickW + 2,714]

2 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Yep - you 'fight with what you have' and try to plan ahead for the next generation.

At least during this specific winter, there are probably a couple of other ideas that could be checked out:

Idle/reduce output on highly energy intensive industries (aluminum smelting, fertilizer production) where the inputs can be saved or reduced for use elsewhere - I understand this has been done to some degree based on the cost of energy inputs, but has anyone looked at it from a systemic perspective?  My guess is only haphazardly

building/facility closure/shutdowns - thinking about things like having hotels close unused capacity and turn of the heat, cut of heat to museums, and other 'public attractions'  which are not critical to the public.  Maybe this has been done, and maybe it hasn't.  Maybe the savings are too small to be worth the trouble, or maybe it's simply to impractical, but has anyone assessed it yet? 

Any saving is worthwhile because they are cumulative with countless other efforts. 

We have cranked our thermostat down to 16 deg C. Run a dehumidifer to deal with any moisture. Our daily gas usage in a 4 bed house 4-5m3 ( 43-54kwh). We use 9-12 kwh of electric. 

Only adjustment - wearing an extra layer and 2 pairs of socks. 

Im amazed at the number of people running 'indoor furnaces' at 23-24 deg C. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

8 hours ago, Eric Gagen said:

What could be done isn't the same as what can be done.  None of the potentially useful infrastructure you are proposing exists in quantities meaningful enough to have an impact.  Given a couple of years it could be constructed, but that doesn't help right now,  and would guarantee extremely high prices due to the cost of transporting large quantities of LNG in such extremely expensive penny packets.  For the extreme expense, you might as well just go all solar, or convert everything to run on fuel oil and not bother with natural gas at all.  

https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/gie-small-scale-lng-map/ It is being done in many areas including the Rhine River. It is something that is not at all "fanciful" and is in progress. All the technology is available and the equipment just needs to be ordered for new facilities. Nothing unusual about that. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

47 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/gie-small-scale-lng-map/ It is being done in many areas including the Rhine River. It is something that is not at all "fanciful" and is in progress. All the technology is available and the equipment just needs to be ordered for new facilities. Nothing unusual about that. 

Printed in appropriately small-scale font I can't make out a thing.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

51 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

https://www.gie.eu/publications/maps/gie-small-scale-lng-map/ It is being done in many areas including the Rhine River. It is something that is not at all "fanciful" and is in progress. All the technology is available and the equipment just needs to be ordered for new facilities. Nothing unusual about that. 

Yes as I said - this is a set of ideas that can have a meaningful impact in a couple of years.  Ordering and producing stuff takes time.  It’s not a technology problem - it’s a procurement and construction problem. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/02/06/pipeline-politics-ex-german-chancellor-gerhard-schroder-nominated-to-board-of-russian-state-owned-gas-company/

Pipeline Politics: Ex German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder Nominated to Board of Russian State-Owned Gas Company

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[ronwagn + 6,290]

21 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

Yes as I said - this is a set of ideas that can have a meaningful impact in a couple of years.  Ordering and producing stuff takes time.  It’s not a technology problem - it’s a procurement and construction problem. 

Well, we will see how your ideas work out and how LNG does in the future. The maps show that it is making good progress so far. 

Conserving energy is, of course, a good idea and should be attempted through any means possible. For some reason the insulation jobs seem to not get done in the poor peoples homes who really need them. 

Wind and solar project prices are through the roof. 

31 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Printed in appropriately small-scale font I can't make out a thing.

They want you to buy the maps. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

39 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

They want you to buy the maps. 

Clever! I nominate you for their board!

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://www.theepochtimes.com/ford-curbing-vehicle-production-citing-shortage-of-chips_4258763.html?utm_source=ai_recommender

[ronwagn + 6,290]

55 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Clever! I nominate you for their board!

I think Hunter might already have that one lined up. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

22 hours ago, ronwagn said:

God willing, things will change next November. We will be trying to hold better elections. 

Ron, until the Campaign Finance Bill is REMOVED(limiting personal contributions), elections means nearly nothing in the USA as no one running for office can obtain funding without kowtowing to the DNC/RNC chairman unless you are personally fabulously rich or famous.  Said DNC/RNC/Libertarian chairman are massively indebted to the banks... so when the banks tell them to jump, they only ask, "How high?".  Likewise it is a guarantee those who do NOT KOWTOW will never be put in positions of power in Washington.  Look at all the good politicians(yes there are a few)... they are ALL shuffled off to useless 'jobs' without power or more importantly OVERSIGHT committees of the corrupt practices.  None of them EVER make it to whip status or into the DNC/RNC hierarchy.  If said good politicians do not get elected, do they get cushy jobs in the "think tanks?" So they can then get hired into positions of power in the Fed Government Bureaucracy?--> No. 

AT minimum we MUST pass a law making it ILLEGAL for ANY political organization to obtain a loan of ANY kind. 

Look who owns ~35% of EVERY major corporation in the USA... Black Rock, Vanguard, Prudential, Federal Pension plans, and banks(none of whom can die so power is corrupted inside said institution as it always is and is now incestuous)...  Not one single corporation can make one SINGLE step without kissing the feet of their unelected oligarchy who hide in "trusts" which never die and they tell the CEO's etc what to do.  Far as I am concerned, Trusts should live for 30years and then die.  Its not like the private businesses can do much either, as they MUST buy and sell to said major corporations and if cut off they go out of business instantly.  I mean good grief man look what the Bill and Malinda gates Foundation just got done doing in the last year or so.  Beyond disgusting. 

Take off the blinders Ron.  I hate to say it, but Thomas Jefferson is right.

"And what country can preserve its liberties if their rulers are not warned from time to time that their people preserve the spirit of resistance? Let them take arms. The remedy is to set them right as to facts, pardon and pacify them. What signify a few lives lost in a century or two? " "The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants. It is its natural manure.” "