Europe gas market -how it started how its going

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

11 minutes ago, Eric Gagen said:

European governments and societies in general don't have a lot of resources - financial or natural compared to countries like the US, Australia or Russia.  What they do have is dedicated towards maintaining standards of education, income and healthcare.  When it comes to energy policy the cheapest supplier in terms of immediate cash consequences almost always wins.  They simply can't afford to experiment.

Grid scale batteries ARE an experiment.  It's only within the last 1-2 years that their advantages have been big enough to make them worth installing outside of tinkering around with the mechanics of having them installed in a grid.  Australia is wealthy enough to experiment with solutions like that but Europe as a general rule is not.  Also, to be fair, the Europeans generally have better access to pumped storage which is even cheaper and more effective than batteries where the geography and weather is right. 

 

As @Andrei Moutchkine noted, storing gas for seasonal demand works the same for LNG supply or pipeline supply.  Generally speaking Europe has sufficient supply space - they just didn't buy enough gas to fill it up with.  

Well, the pipelines are at least instant-on once the contract details/financials are cleared. The enticing spot market prices for US LNG are a bit of a loss leader. Because the market for idle tankers is anything but spot (if at all present) You've also have to book a slot on a liquefaction train using novel liquefy-or-pay provisions.

In light of this, behold this beautiful artifact.

https://www.gem.wiki/Marshal_Vasilevskiy_FSRU_Terminal

which officially exists to ensure the energy security of the Kaliningrad enclave, or some such

https://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2019/january/article472626/

which was not really seriously endangered. This thing has been tremendously useful to troll the Poles and the Balts, consistently being the only large LNG tanker around available on short notice and best rate. If only not for Gazprom name on it...

It is not really just a tanker, but a floating regasification plant, which can inject the gas anywhere, not just at specialized LNG terminal. There are only two of those around, with the sister ship being strangely moored in Klaipeda

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FSRU_Independence

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Klaipėda_LNG_FSRU

so named as the enabler of Lithuanian independence from the Russian pipeline gas (or, according to latest definition, "some diversification"

Namesake

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aleksandr_Vasilevsky

"the world's largest LNG bunkering vessel KN Kairos" is just a regular LNG tanker that does its own thing. Now, if the ownership structures of the project were remotely sane, they'd at least switch places. Hardly makes any sense to use a fancy FSRU as nothing but a storage tank for LNG.

Good to know that our OMV is profiteering from the Baltic quest for energy independence somehow, too. Officially, Austria got the lowest gas reserves of all

The only proper gas storage the same it is always been since Soviets and is in Latvia

https://skultelng.lv/en/underground_gas_storage/

Should the Polish bankroll an actual appearance of a Qatari Q-Max tanker on their shores (which they do once in a while to demonstrate progress in their LNG ploys), they all end up in these enterprising Belgian mitts on the way back

https://www.fluxys.com/en/products-services/activities/lng

They currently make a lot more sense as LNG storage, not ferrying LNG around, because they've got a smaller re-liquefaction plant for the evaporate, while using heavy marine diesel for fuel. (which is progressively frowned upon)

Unfortunately, I am not really in touch with what exactly kind of infrastructures FSRUs might be docking with, but its got to be straight-to-pipeline variety I reckon.

 

 

 

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

On 17.01.2022 at 19:54, Selva said:

I don't know exactly what you mean by American standard, but your posts are not in accordance with our rules, not only because of posting in Russian (I guess you are using VPN because no other members have the same problem), as I warned you earlier.

All your posts are mostly provocations and insults to the American people, just as you claim for the posts of other members of this forum. Here you can read our rules, in order to adhere to them and avoid deleting posts.

Thank you!

1. The "American Standard" is a failure to meet the standard if it does not please the U.S. "Double Standard/Gothenburg Ethics (as oxymoron as your "Posttruth").
In other words, biased treatment and unfair evaluation of events is a discriminatory approach that deliberately portrays events in a negative light for one object and in a positive light for another.
The truth is always the same! - "The posttruth" is a devaluation of fact. "The standard" (the standard, the model, the norm) does not imply duality... in normal people.
But you can - you can "exceptional" and do what you want:«If the rules of the game do not allow a gentleman to win, then gentlemen change the rules».
"I know that some of our actions in recent years have undermined the rule-based order, and have made others wonder, are we still committed to it?", -  US Secretary of State Anthony Linkin attended the United Nations Security Council meeting on 7 May 2021. 🤑
2. I already told you that I write in English, and your stupid algorithm, poorly trained machine, stubbornly translates my texts into Russian. In the end and it "true eyes hurt" *Rusk. proverb))).
3. I do not use VPN and Proxy.
4. You by ignorance(?) have mistaken my "symmetrical response" to "provocations" with the very provocations" of opponents, I shall call them that!
5. The truth doesn't insult, you can't offend with the truth, it can be accepted or rejected - but it is insulted by the statement that the land is in the form of a geoid, SARS-Kov-2 exists, the People’s Republic of China has global economic, and the Russian Federation military-technical advantage (qualitative and quantitative, relative to nuclear potential) ... Not possible. In fact, critical analysis of emotion is not appropriate.
They should either be extinguished and their shit out. Search for counter-arguments in verified, verified, objectively trustworthy sources and quote in the stones (with references to the original source).
Don’t "lynch" the truth.
PS If you delete this answer as well as delete it, the next one will be even longer. )))

 

I appreciate the advice, but I’m familiar with the rules.

Edited January 18, 2022 by Andrew Neopalimy

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Andrew Neopalimy said:

1. The "American Standard" is a failure to meet the standard if it does not please the U.S. "Double Standard/Gothenburg Ethics (as oxymoron as your "Posttruth").
In other words, biased treatment and unfair evaluation of events is a discriminatory approach that deliberately portrays events in a negative light for one object and in a positive light for another.
The truth is always the same! - "The posttruth" is a devaluation of fact. "The standard" (the standard, the model, the norm) does not imply duality... in normal people.
But you can - you can "exceptional" and do what you want:«If the rules of the game do not allow a gentleman to win, then gentlemen change the rules».
"I know that some of our actions in recent years have undermined the rule-based order, and have made others wonder, are we still committed to it?", -  US Secretary of State Anthony Linkin attended the United Nations Security Council meeting on 7 May 2021. 🤑
2. I already told you that I write in English, and your stupid algorithm, poorly trained machine, stubbornly translates my texts into Russian. In the end and it "true eyes hurt" *Rusk. proverb))).
3. I do not use VPN and Proxy.
4. You by ignorance(?) have mistaken my "symmetrical response" to "provocations" with the very provocations" of opponents, I shall call them that!
5. The truth cannot be insulted, it can be accepted or rejected - but it is insulted by the statement that the land is in the form of a geoid, SARS-Kov-2 exists, the People’s Republic of China has global economic, and the Russian Federation military-technical (qualitative and quantitative, relative to nuclear potential) advantage ... Not possible. In fact, critical analysis of emotion is not appropriate.
They should either be extinguished and their shit out. Search for counter-arguments in verified, verified, objectively trustworthy sources and quote in the stones (with references to the original source).
Don’t "lynch" the truth.
PS If you delete this answer as well as delete it, the next one will be even longer. )))

 

I appreciate the advice, but I’m familiar with the rules.

You can likely add an order of preference to interface languages of your browser by hand. Here is how to do it in Mozilla:

https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/use-firefox-another-language

Also defines the languages to spell-check for a given locale. The auto-translation is somewhat mysterious. Possibly a translation plug-in you installed? Try setting a ru-en locale.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

21 hours ago, Selva said:

I don't know exactly what you mean by American standard, but your posts are not in accordance with our rules, not only because of posting in Russian (I guess you are using VPN because no other members have the same problem), as I warned you earlier. All your posts are mostly provocations and insults to the American people, just as you claim for the posts of other members of this forum. Here you can read our rules, in order to adhere to them and avoid deleting posts.

Thank you!

 

Ah, you must be an admin of godlike powers?

There seems to be a bug when trying to edit the "cover photo" in the profile, which I assume refers to the really wide bitmap on top of the page? (I get an non-specific error right away in most browsers, and an actual error number on an old explorer when I try to invoke that point)

I think this used to work, cause the really cool kinds like Tomasz got a custom one.

[Selva + 252]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ah, you must be an admin of godlike powers?

There seems to be a bug when trying to edit the "cover photo" in the profile, which I assume refers to the really wide bitmap on top of the page? (I get an non-specific error right away in most browsers, and an actual error number on an old explorer when I try to invoke that point)

I think this used to work, cause the really cool kinds like Tomasz got a custom one.

Thank you for letting me know about this problem with setting up the profile photo . We never had it before. Let me check with our tech team, and I I'll get back to you.  

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

You can likely add an order of preference to interface languages of your browser by hand. Here is how to do it in Mozilla:

https://support.mozilla.org/en-US/kb/use-firefox-another-language

Also defines the languages to spell-check for a given locale. The auto-translation is somewhat mysterious. Possibly a translation plug-in you installed? Try setting a ru-en locale.

Thank you for your support, but that’s not the point.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

The value of gas exports exceeded the revenues from the export of oil products for the first time since 2008

The value of natural gas exports from Russia in the fourth quarter of 2021 reached $20.8 billion, which is 1.6 times more than in the third quarter ($13.1 billion). The sharp rise in prices for gas supplied abroad led to the fact that the value of gas exports exceeded the income from the export of petroleum products. This happened for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008.

The price of exported oil products in the fourth quarter exceeded the figure of the previous quarter by 1%, amounting to $18.5 billion, Interfax analyzed the data of the Central Bank of Russia's balance of payments assessment for last year. For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2008, the price of gas exports was exceeded by revenues from oil exports, when, due to a drop in demand and prices for energy carriers during the onset of the global economic crisis, the value of exports of petroleum products decreased by 42% compared to the previous quarter, to $15.3 billion. The price of gas exported for the quarter at the beginning of the winter season increased by 10%, to $17.8 billion.

As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

Today, January 18, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Gazprom is manipulating gas prices in the European Union. In confirmation of this, he cited the words of the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Fatih Birol, who accused Russia of the energy crisis in Europe. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Gazprom is not to blame for the high gas prices on the European market.

In December 2021, gas prices began to rise against the background of Gazprom's refusal to reserve the capacities of the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline. Bloomberg sources said that the company's decision is due to the exhaustion of limits, due to which buyers need to pay them at the prevailing market price. At the end of the month, the price of gas in Europe exceeded $2,150.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5172256?from=top_main_5

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Is it worth launching Nord Stream 2?

Yuri Barsukov about the location of the gas pipeline in the new coordinate system

The current aggravation of political relations between Russia and the West and the ongoing exchange of threatening statements have overshadowed the progress of the Nord Stream 2 project. Six months ago, it seemed that this gas pipeline and the problems associated with it were hardly the most important aspect in relations between Russia and Germany, and the EU as a whole. Now, the discussion, and sometimes even an absentee skirmish between officials, is mainly held in military terms, and not in economic or legal terms.

One of the reasons for the decrease in tension around Nord Stream 2, in my opinion, is that putting it into operation without a general improvement in relations will not change much.

Simplifying, we can say that neither Gazprom nor Germany are interested in the immediate launch of the pipeline, since by itself it is not capable of quickly influencing the situation on the European gas market.

The German authorities could expect that after the start of pumping, Gazprom will increase gas supplies, which will cause prices to drop. But these expectations can only be based on some kind of political agreement, because the monopoly has neither a legal obligation nor an economic expediency to increase supplies.

Gazprom can even now supply more gas through already operating gas pipelines - for example, Yamal-Europe has been idle for the second month. But from an economic point of view, this makes no sense: by increasing supplies by a few percent, you can drop the price of gas on the spot market (to which the prices of most long-term contracts are tied) by tens of percent and, having earned hundreds of millions of dollars due to volume growth, lose billions due to for price reductions.

Considering the entire portfolio of Gazprom contracts, the effect is very significant: if the average export price of Gazprom in 2022 is $400 per 1,000 cubic meters instead of the planned $296 per 1,000 cubic meters, this will more than pay off the entire cost of Nord Stream 2 (€9.5 billion). Gas at European hubs now costs about $900 per 1,000 cubic meters.

I would venture to suggest that in the current state of the market, which is unlikely to change radically in the coming months, Gazprom would make minimal use of Nord Stream 2, even if it had the opportunity.

While it looks like the pipe will not work for a long time, but this does not mean that it is useless. A technically ready-to-operate gas pipeline drastically reduces Gazprom's risks in the event that problems arise with other supply routes, primarily through Ukraine. Nord Stream 2 will also be a strong argument in negotiations on the future of transit through the country after 2024.

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5171298

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I recommend the above 2 articles to reconsider whether Russia is at great loss and whether it really wants in  anno domini 2021 and 2022 and cares so much about opening NS II as soon as possible.

Just to add, in the first half of January, Russia produced 1.52 billion m3 of NG per day - this is a result very similar to the production capacity estimated at 1.5 billion m3 per day.

Russia currently probably doesnt have much of spare capacity.

Russia NG production is going north to Yamal and Arctica.

Central Siberia is going exhausted.

That's single most important and reasonable reason to launch NS II.

Edited January 19, 2022 by Tomasz

[Piotr Berman + 82]

Tomasz: As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

It seems that even if Russia gives up its entire NG export, it still has trade surplus, and if it gives up NG export only to countries that would join putative "super sanctions" that USA is developing for the eventuality of a was termed "invasion on Ukraine", Russia would still have current account surplus.  Adding sanctions on the trade in Russian bonds is hilarious in this context.

In the meantime, Western societies seem to have low tolerance for inflation driven by world commodities.  Because I know only few languages, I can only witness the loss of popularity of governments in USA and UK, and the strange maneuvers aim to preserve the popularity of the current government.  The latest styles itself as the "United Right Wing" and "Defender of poor people", so it devised a plan to fight inflation with "inflation shield", basically reduction of sales taxes, while simultaneously raising taxes to preserve programs to "defend poor people".  So far, the crash in popularity seems delayed with those maneuvers, but it is hard to tell (like in Turkey, polling companies are divided into those that consistently predict a loss of the government in the next elections, and those that consistently predict a victory.

UK enjoys the highest electricity prices in Europe, which may divert attention of the population from hilarious revelries in the office of Prime Minister.  Because PM is resourceful, especially in PR terms, I suspect that he will regain the popularity with.a show of shared sacrifice, from now on, his staff will buy cheep booze only, and refrain from overconsumption when Her Majesty happens to be sad (e.g. funeral of her husband, humiliating conviction of her son, death of favorite dogs etc.).  And they will never damage garden furniture again.

USA is NG exporter, but the improvements in export have few winners, and a lot of people who pay more to heat their dwellings, and to drive, and electricity increases too, and the chain reaction drives inflation and makes folks grumpy, and another spectacular failure abroad can kill all hopes of the current government to be reelected.  In a current exchange of threats (a.k.a. dialog) between USA and Russia, USA can "inflict a price" and Russia can inflict a serious humiliation.  Inflicting a price never won an election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

In long time, the situation will calm down and prices will drop significantly.

The difference will be in the interpretation of new price environment.

Before 2019 $ 500 per 1,000 m3 was an unacceptable price for natural gas in Europe.

In the era of the green madness of the next decade, European countries will be satisfied by paying only $ 500 for 1,000 m3.

Gazprom will open 100% of both pipelines to China and will send 88 billion with two pipes and a further tens of billion as LNG via Novatek.

Gas for Europe will be only not for everyone interested.

Gazprom due to limited spare capacity IMHO will resign from some contracts - it will forgive new contracts with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

The profit from these contracts was small, and the constant screams from this countries were terrible.

It will simply not conclude new contracts and let these countries buy themselves on the free global market for natural gas

After all, they do not have to buy from Gazprom and Gazprom is not obliged to sell them.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

Do you even believe that drivel you post?  Give you a BIG hint, USA exports more gas than it imports and has done so for going on 5 years now and before that the imports of gas were less than 10% for a whopping 10 years and another 10 years of 5% of demand all of which came from Canada as it was closer to the demand point not because the USA did not have the NG... 

🤡

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

DECREE 
OF THE PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION
The award of state awards 
Russian Federation

For special work services to the State and people, to award the title of Hero of Labor of the Russian Federation Miller Alexey Borisovich - Chairman of the Board, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors of PAO "Gazprom", City of Saint Petersburg.

http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202201200008?index=0&rangeSize=1

-January 31 chapter of "Gazproma" will be 60 years old.

In 2000-2001 he worked as Deputy Minister of Energy of the Russian Federation. Since 2001 - Chairman of the Board of PAO "Gazprom" and since 2002 - Deputy Chairman of the Board of Directors "Gazprom".

 

 

Edited January 21, 2022 by Andrew Neopalimy

[ronwagn + 6,290]

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/02/igor-sechin-new-arctic-oil-discoveries-are-worlds-biggest 

Russia can do well economically by selling its oil and gas for 100 years or more. Eliminating its potential customers and turning them into enemies is not a bright idea. Putin is more interested in power than in helping his own people. RCW

[ronwagn + 6,290]

On 1/19/2022 at 3:19 PM, Tomasz said:

In long time, the situation will calm down and prices will drop significantly.

The difference will be in the interpretation of new price environment.

Before 2019 $ 500 per 1,000 m3 was an unacceptable price for natural gas in Europe.

In the era of the green madness of the next decade, European countries will be satisfied by paying only $ 500 for 1,000 m3.

Gazprom will open 100% of both pipelines to China and will send 88 billion with two pipes and a further tens of billion as LNG via Novatek.

Gas for Europe will be only not for everyone interested.

Gazprom due to limited spare capacity IMHO will resign from some contracts - it will forgive new contracts with Poland, the Baltic states and Ukraine.

The profit from these contracts was small, and the constant screams from this countries were terrible.

It will simply not conclude new contracts and let these countries buy themselves on the free global market for natural gas

After all, they do not have to buy from Gazprom and Gazprom is not obliged to sell them.

Good plan for Europe, bad for Russia in the long run.

[Starschy + 211]

Crisis Meeting in Switzerland about electric Power issues. France stopped 10 Nuclear Power stations and Price spikes hit the biggest Swiss Power provider very hard. Question was should we ask for temporary Government support probably a few hundred millions. All those meetings between Christmas and New Year and very quiet.

They found a solution inside their Stock members which provided additional capital. (large Institutions)

First solution is to increase Hydro Power inside Switzerland

Second is to increase Solar and Wind and third is to build 2-3 Gas Power Stations in the near future.

Edited January 22, 2022 by Starschy

[NickW + 2,714]

16 hours ago, ronwagn said:

https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/industry-and-energy/2021/02/igor-sechin-new-arctic-oil-discoveries-are-worlds-biggest 

Russia can do well economically by selling its oil and gas for 100 years or more. Eliminating its potential customers and turning them into enemies is not a bright idea. Putin is more interested in power than in helping his own people. RCW

I don't think so. If you look at Russia its basically done the opposite to the West (1990-2010)

In that period the west effectively sacrificed its youth to preserve the wealth of the elderly. As a result the productive generation of today  see little purpose in being productive because the entire system is rigged against them (astronomical house prices, ever rising taxes to support the boomer population, state pension age keeps going up etc etc ) 

Russia, with various devaluations etc in the 1990's / 2000's to deflate away the debt gave its youth a clean balance sheet (hence Russias very low public debt compared to the west). This impoverished many older people but at least gave the Russia of tomorrow a good chance in moving forward. 

[ronwagn + 6,290]

Anyone who is young in Russia and wants to stay there for life is going to face living in a dictatorship with no real voice in governmental affairs. They will live a much poorer life materially and live in a very cold climate. Few will choose that over other options. The population of Russians is not growing much for those very reasons. 

Western Europe is crowded by comparison, but is drawing legal and illegal immigrants from all over the world. Russia has a very small economy by comparison to France, Germany, or Britain. It will remain that way without attracting investment and people. Investment is pulling out of Russia right now, because of its volatility. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

8 hours ago, NickW said:

I don't think so. If you look at Russia its basically done the opposite to the West (1990-2010)

In that period the west effectively sacrificed its youth to preserve the wealth of the elderly. As a result the productive generation of today  see little purpose in being productive because the entire system is rigged against them (astronomical house prices, ever rising taxes to support the boomer population, state pension age keeps going up etc etc ) 

Russia, with various devaluations etc in the 1990's / 2000's to deflate away the debt gave its youth a clean balance sheet (hence Russias very low public debt compared to the west). This impoverished many older people but at least gave the Russia of tomorrow a good chance in moving forward. 

The departing Commies also gave everybody quite a dowry in the form of free housing. Check out

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_home_ownership_rate

Former Warsaw Treaty countries are in the lead. Russia's is 89%

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

17 minutes ago, ronwagn said:

Anyone who is young in Russia and wants to stay there for life is going to face living in a dictatorship with no real voice in governmental affairs. They will live a much poorer life materially and live in a very cold climate. Few will choose that over other options. The population of Russians is not growing much for those very reasons. 

Western Europe is crowded by comparison, but is drawing legal and illegal immigrants from all over the world. Russia has a very small economy by comparison to France, Germany, or Britain. It will remain that way without attracting investment and people. Investment is pulling out of Russia right now, because of its volatility. 

Your understanding of dictatorship is brutally primitive. It is not really about having an individual dictator. Individuals do expire. Do you see a Putin Jr. anywhere.? You, yourself, live in a totalitarian society much more oppressive than Russia will ever be and have no voice in government affairs. Your government works for somebody else. There is nothing special about your particular method of dropping a piece of paper into a ballot box, except being more broken than most. Your own population is also not growing, discounting immigration. More and more will chose Russia over the God-awful police state USA once they become familiarized with the real situation. I am so glad I don't live there myself anymore.

Russia is the 2nd or 3rd most attractive emigration destination in the world after the USA and maybe Germany in some years. OK, I checked #2 for 2021

https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/immigration-by-country

Everybody from the former USSR wants to go there. Especially the Ukrainians, whose country you destroyed. Those people are much easier to integrate, because they already know the language and share the same culture to a significant extent.

Russia never had much any a way of foreign investment. The GDP growth for 2021 was 4.5%. Manufacturing growth was 7%. Without foreign investment. We don't need your dollars. You, yourself, are progressively turning them into a toxic asset. Soon enough, another Evil Empire will bite the dust. Just like USSR, where nobody believed it was gonna happen till it was too late. The difference  is that Russians turned out to be very self-sufficient people who managed to survive while not getting paid a cent for months to years. Never relied on government much. You, on the other hand, will start to die out and kill each other whenever your local grocery store runs out of TP. That much we've already seen. You've got to stock up on ammo, Ron, quick. You've got to protect your TP.

Next time, do check the actual stats before echoing propagandist boilerplates with no base in reality? 

 

[Boat + 1,324]

On 1/18/2022 at 11:29 PM, Piotr Berman said:

Tomasz: As a result, in the fourth quarter of 2021, natural gas exports accounted for 14% of Russia's export earnings ($148.7 billion). According to the results of all 2021, the price of exported gas increased by 2.1 times compared to 2020 ($54.2 billion against $25.7). Aggregate exports grew by 47% ($489.8 billion against $333.4 billion), exports of crude oil - by 52%, oil products - by 51%.

It seems that even if Russia gives up its entire NG export, it still has trade surplus, and if it gives up NG export only to countries that would join putative "super sanctions" that USA is developing for the eventuality of a was termed "invasion on Ukraine", Russia would still have current account surplus.  Adding sanctions on the trade in Russian bonds is hilarious in this context.

In the meantime, Western societies seem to have low tolerance for inflation driven by world commodities.  Because I know only few languages, I can only witness the loss of popularity of governments in USA and UK, and the strange maneuvers aim to preserve the popularity of the current government.  The latest styles itself as the "United Right Wing" and "Defender of poor people", so it devised a plan to fight inflation with "inflation shield", basically reduction of sales taxes, while simultaneously raising taxes to preserve programs to "defend poor people".  So far, the crash in popularity seems delayed with those maneuvers, but it is hard to tell (like in Turkey, polling companies are divided into those that consistently predict a loss of the government in the next elections, and those that consistently predict a victory.

UK enjoys the highest electricity prices in Europe, which may divert attention of the population from hilarious revelries in the office of Prime Minister.  Because PM is resourceful, especially in PR terms, I suspect that he will regain the popularity with.a show of shared sacrifice, from now on, his staff will buy cheep booze only, and refrain from overconsumption when Her Majesty happens to be sad (e.g. funeral of her husband, humiliating conviction of her son, death of favorite dogs etc.).  And they will never damage garden furniture again.

USA is NG exporter, but the improvements in export have few winners, and a lot of people who pay more to heat their dwellings, and to drive, and electricity increases too, and the chain reaction drives inflation and makes folks grumpy, and another spectacular failure abroad can kill all hopes of the current government to be reelected.  In a current exchange of threats (a.k.a. dialog) between USA and Russia, USA can "inflict a price" and Russia can inflict a serious humiliation.  Inflicting a price never won an election.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As an American I don’t win if Russia does well or not. Your framing of reality may all be true but who cares. The US has 3 states with larger GDP than Russia and I don’t care what happens their state. Canada and Australia have a bigger GDP than Russia and mostly I don’t care what happens there. 
Russia is relevant at the moment because of 100,000 troops and a silly leader who is trying to jump the pecking order of importance on the global stage. He claimed his military power with the hypersonic missiles. An important irreplaceable power. Did I get that right? He claimed Russia as a world economic powerhouse. So if Putin is comfortable, what happened. The Ukraine seems like little threat to me. How can Russia be more threatened by border countries wanting to join NATO. Missiles fly 1,000’s of miles, planes fly over 1,000 miles. Subs, drones etc, The modern battlefield is not a border anymore. Any Area by either combatant can be hit at any time. Loading up with troops does what. Nobody can protect a troop or thousands of troops. Are you guys that dumb not to know this? Why wouldn’t you question Putin troop strategy. Oh yea, you can’t. Why? Is it Biden’s fault. Lol

[Boat + 1,324]

Just now, Boat said:

As an American I don’t win if Russia does well or not. Your framing of reality may all be true but who cares. The US has 3 states with larger GDP than Russia and I don’t care what happens their state. Canada and Australia have a bigger GDP than Russia and mostly I don’t care what happens there. 
Russia is relevant at the moment because of 100,000 troops and a silly leader who is trying to jump the pecking order of importance on the global stage. He claimed his military power with the hypersonic missiles. An important irreplaceable power. Did I get that right? He claimed Russia as a world economic powerhouse. So if Putin is comfortable, what happened. The Ukraine seems like little threat to me. How can Russia be more threatened by border countries wanting to join NATO. Missiles fly 1,000’s of miles, planes fly over 1,000 miles. Subs, drones etc, The modern battlefield is not a border anymore. Any Area by either combatant can be hit at any time. Loading up with troops does what. Nobody can protect a troop or thousands of troops. Are you guys that dumb not to know this? Why wouldn’t you question Putin troop strategy. Oh yea, you can’t. Why? Is it Biden’s fault. Lol

Btw, the OPEC+ Russia attempt to kill the American fracker didn’t work. Cutting nat gas and not replacing oil taken off the market by Covid demand has been profitable for Putin.  That won’t last to long in the grand scheme of things. Fracking is back to growing and higher prices helps them as well. The last of the good years. Around 2025 there will be several more electric car factories. Guessing around 2026 we’ll see peak oil. Then the drop in demand will begin. Putin is doing a great job keeping Russian debt down. 
The US and many other FF producers will still have a large market but who will be willing to step out of an oversupplied market. It is possible high prices may not happen for a long time. 
These new electric cars and AC will drive renewable demand. My opinion says nat gas is good for base power for now. I mean how many batteries can you buy and install. I think the possible length of storms outlasts these piles of batteries.

[Andrew Neopalimy + 14]

Transit of Russian gas to Poland through Ukraine has been suspended since January 19
There is no information about the resumption of transit yet

KIEV, 24 January. /TASS/. The transit of Russian natural gas to Poland through Ukraine has not been carried out since January 19. This is evidenced by operational data of the company "GTS Operator of Ukraine".

It is noted that the transit of gas to Poland through the GIS "Drozdovichi" on January 17 amounted to 3.766 million cubic meters. m, January 18 - 241 thousand cubic meters. m, and from January 19, zero level is fixed.

In December 2019, Moscow and Kiev agreed to extend the transit of Russian gas through Ukrainian territory for the period from 2020 to 2024, with the possibility of extending the agreement for another 10 years. The contract provides for the transit of 65 billion cubic meters. m of gas in 2020 and 40 bcm. m annually from 2021 to 2024. The transit arrangement implies a "pump or pay" principle, where transit fees are charged for the amount of booked capacity, even if actual pumping is less.

https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13508059

REFERENCE

Since the beginning of January 2022, the volume of transit through the gas measuring station (GIS) Drozdovichi has fluctuated widely - from 2.839 million m3 (January 14, 2022) to 10.673 million m3 (January 3, 2022), demonstrating an unstable downward trend.
On January 17, 2022, gas transit to Poland through the GIS Drozdovichi on January 17 amounted to 3.766 million m3, on January 18 - 241 thousand m3, and from January 19 to January 22 (the latest available data from the OGTSU) the zero level is recorded.

In general, on January 22, 2022, the GTS of Ukraine received 44.55 million m3 of gas, of which 19.87 million m3 was received through the Sudzha GIS (entrance to Ukraine of the gas pipeline Urengoy - Pomary - Uzhgorod) and 24.68 million m3 - through the Sohranivka GIS (entry to Ukraine IHL Soyuz).
Incl. through GIS Germanovichi in Poland, there was zero gas flow at the entrance to the GTS of Ukraine.
At the exit from the GTS of Ukraine, the volume amounted to 47.958 million m3, incl. through well logging Uzhgorod (to Slovakia) 27.285 million m3, well logging Beregovo (to Hungary) 3.408 million m3, well logging Orlovka (Romania) - 4.027 million m3, to Moldova - 13.238 million m3.

In total, in 2021, gas transit to Poland through the Ukrainian GTS amounted to 3.8 bcm, which is 1% more than in 2020.
In general, the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine amounted to 41.6 billion m3, which is higher than the contractual volumes under Gazprom's long-term transit contract (40 billion m3/year or 109.5 million m3/day).
Additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS were booked by Gazprom at monthly and daily auctions, gaining a total of 44.4 billion m3 of transit capacity, i.e. 2.8 billion m3 of additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS remained unused.
From October 2021, Gazprom refuses to book monthly additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS, and additional capacities remain unclaimed at quarterly auctions.
Additional capacities of the Ukrainian GTS for February 2022 were also not booked by Gazprom. 

[Craig W 0]

Does anyone know if, in a practical time frame, it would be possible to do a "Berlin Sea Lift" of US LNG to Europe this winter? At full market prices, of course.

[Eric Gagen + 713]

Just now, Craig W said:

Does anyone know if, in a practical time frame, it would be possible to do a "Berlin Sea Lift" of US LNG to Europe this winter? At full market prices, of course.

There aren’t enough LNG ships in the world  and regassification terminals in Europe to do that.  It is enough to make a major dent in the situation though.  It would not be enough to ‘save’ European industry over the winter but it would probably be enough to prevent anyone from freezing to death.