Tomasz

Europe gas market -how it started how its going

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2 minutes ago, Boat said:

Tomas. That’s kinda old news. Europe put themselves in harms way by trusting Putin. They should have focused on energy independence before going green. Putin is just making some of those countries pay for leaving the USSR. Those countries knew Putin might retaliate. He is a bum like Trump so I expect the worst. But whatever happens happens. Maybe millions will freeze and he will be the new Stalin or Pol Pot. Now that he has bared his teeth you cannot give in to the little fellow. He won’t get nicer. I say cut trade with Russia from every Allie East and west. Those who disagree can be cut from trade also. It would be very painful but better than earths destruction. 
 

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

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When the USSR collapsed why did all those countries leave. It doesn't seem they were happy with management. 

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2 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

Sorry, no time for hr long videos. We’re 30 trillion in debt mainly on military spending. From the Muslims to the Russians and on to the Chinese. Much of that debt is our own fault but I don’t remember getting money from any country. Maybe Kuwait helped with the cost of their war. 

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I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

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(edited)

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/08/why-scholz-wont-say-hed-kill-ns2-00006847

Why Scholz won’t say he’d kill NS2

Scholz is in a weak coalition including the Greens. It could easily fall apart. RCW

 

By ALEXANDER WARD, ANDREW DESIDERIO and QUINT FORGEY 

 

02/08/2022 04:09 PM EST

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a news conference.
Edited by ronwagn
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2 hours ago, Tomasz said:

I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

Russia has already lost many billions of dollars since their first invasion of Ukraine. The ruble has never recovered. 

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(edited)

4 hours ago, Boat said:

That is why this life and death struggle over going green is so ridiculous. By 2035 the projection is a 35% gain in world BTU. 50% or double the use of btu by 2050. Even if electric transportation happens and all air conditioning is run off of renewables and batteries the market is so huge and growing there is no way all this bs about stopping FF is going to happen. 
The worlds population has at least 2 billion to go. The only enemy to FF demand is Mother Nature herself. For you climate deniers it’s clear sailing. The rest of us see our children and our childrens children getting killed by the billion.

Which is why even though I am buying a Ford lightning and we will set up our next house with solar and batteries I still make my living in oil and gas.  The increase in living standards for billions of people (mostly in Africa and the Indian subcontinent) will drive massive demand increases in the next few decades. Both ends of the market are growing simultaneously.

Edited by Eric Gagen
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According to the Federal Customs Service (FCS), Gazprom's revenues from pipeline gas exports more than doubled in 2021 to $ 55.507 billion, with an annual average price of $ 272.8.

In December, the price of exported gas increased by 15.8% compared to November, to USD 517.8 per thousand cubic meters.

The physical volume of gas exports in 2021 increased by 0.5% compared to 2020, to 203.5 billion cubic meters.

At the same time, the export volume in December increased by 12.4% m / m -

The company's revenues from gas exports increased by 15.8% monthly - to USD 8.34 billion, and in annual terms - almost 2.2 times.

The price in December was $ 517.8, up from $ 156.6 in December 2020. The average price for the year was $ 272.8.

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On 2/8/2022 at 8:25 PM, Tomasz said:

I personally do not see any point in attacking Ukraine by armed forces.

What is this nativity scene for?

To put it brutally.

First-  Putin is now quite sure that after such an armed demonstration no normal investor will dare to invest in Ukraine any serious money for at least a few years if there may be a military bust.

Second the Ukrainian oligarchs themselves see this and Im waiting for the data on how many cash they have removed in the first quarter of 2022 from ukrainian economy. It will be huge number.

To put it brutally, Ukraine will die economically at such very high oil prices, coal gas price before Russia loos much weight in economic means.

I may be wrong but Putin loses his aggression but wins the pipeline in exchange. The Ukraine has a lot of nat gas if my memory serves me. Nat gas produced by anyone will be a popular investment. Remember how bleak it looked for the world after WWII? Humans are resourceful. The Ukraine will be fine. 

The entire world has a tough battle on its hands. Mother Nature costs trillions and growing. Throwing in the two billion more people will benefit the smart and tech nimble but billions will find it tough financially. 
 

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I just wanted to post that going green and to an electric society is inevitable and the right thing to do. Doing it through forced mandates is a plan not thought through. As tech improves going green will happen if it’s cheaper. Electric cars will sell much faster as they get better and cheaper. Batteries will get cheaper and solar will become more efficient while nat gas may never go back to that $2.50 price we enjoyed for years. But I don’t like the idea of not investing in competition with an eye on national security. 
Much of the world is at the political influence mercy of OPEC+ for their energy. This is one thing China, Japan, Europe, India, S Korea etc can agree on. That’s a lot of brain power to put on greener solutions. At the end of the day it’s brains and tech that can limit FF in areas over time. But as each BTU is replaced let cost and efficiency be the reason. Not some ideology that drives up cost.

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The output of Russian gas was at its highest level in the last five years, while oil production was at a four-year low, CDU TEK reported at the start of February.

Russia’s gas output was up 1.1% year on year in January at 69.4 bcm, after output grew at almost all the main gas producing companies.

Gazprom increased production 1% y/y to 47.4 bcm. Novatek’s standalone production slightly decreased 0.7% y/y. Yamal LNG’s gas production grew 8.1% y/y, Terneftegas’s 5.9% y/y and Arcticgas’s 0.2% y/y, while Nortgas showed a decline of 11.9% y/y. Novatek’s consolidated production was down 2.3% y/y. Rosneft’s gas production increased 7.1% y/y. At Surgutneftegas, production fell 2.8% y/y, while at Lukoil it was down 4.0% y/y, according to CDU TEK’s figures.

“In January, OPEC+ production grew an additional 400,000 barrels per day monthly, while Russia’s quota increased [by] 100,000 bpd monthly. The data on the production of gas condensate in January in the country is not available yet. If we assume it at 111,500 tonnes per day (December’s level), then the production of oil in January could have been some 10.1mn bpd, which would be in line with Russia’s OPEC+ quota of 10.1mn bpd,” VTB Capital (VTBC) said in a note. “However, we suppose that Russian oil companies are unlikely to be able to reach their quotas in accordance with the increasing OPEC+ schedule and deliver production of 10.4mn bpd of crude oil by May in the framework of their earlier articulated capex plans.”

VTBC estimates that crude production will only recover to the OPEC+ target by the end of the year (10.2mn bpd in 2022F on average, up 6% y/y), but that will have little effect on the companies’ valuations.

Gazprom was producing at 1.57bn cubic metres per day in January, which analysts say is close to its maximum capacity, as the state-owned gas giant struggles to meet both domestic demand and also fulfil its export obligations. As bne IntelliNews has reported, the V-shaped market of the last two years has pushed Russia’s ability to produce gas close to the maximum and without tapping the new fields in Yamal Russia’s ability to export more gas is limited. However, there is significant unused production and export potential from the Yamal fields, but without the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline in operation that gas cannot be exported and there only few interconnectors linking the Nord Stream 2’s northern route to the central route that runs to western customers via Ukraine’s pipeline network.

Gazprom cited the increased gas demand for gas in Russia as driving up production, which was the key driver for the growth. In export, Gazprom delivered about 10.5 bcm to Europe, down 43% y/y (but still slightly higher than the historical record low of January 2009), according to VTBC.

“The company continued to fulfil its contract obligations to European customers, and is likely to increase deliveries later this year as the majority of contracts are take-or-pay and have limited flexibility in terms of gas delivery fluctuations over certain time periods (e.g. a quarter), as we have already seen from the growing gas exports in the first two days of February,” VTBC said.

CDU TEK also published Russia’s oil and gas production statistics for January 2022. Russian liquids production was up 0.9% month on month to 46.5mn tonnes in absolute terms. In daily terms, it also increased 0.9% m/m to 10.96mn bpd.

Among integrated oil companies, Bashneft showed the highest m/m growth in liquids daily output of 8.7%, followed by Surgutneftegas, with 2%. Rosneft increased daily production 0.5% m/m. Tatneft’s daily output was flat m/m. Lukoil’s and Gazprom Neft’s daily production figures were down a slight 0.1% m/m and 0.3% m/m respectively. Non-integrated companies increased liquids production 1.1% m/m in daily terms to 3.03mn bpd.

On February 2, the participants of the OPEC+ ministerial conference approved an increase in oil production in March by the planned 400,000 bpd, according to the OPEC website.  

As a result, Russian producers would increase oil production 100,000 bpd in March 2022, according to Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. However, by the end of January, OPEC+ participants were unable to produce oil in line with their new quotas, as some countries have been experiencing problems with increasing production, reports VTBC.  

“This is in line with the existing schedule for raising OPEC+ production. We note that the baseline agreement envisages Russian crude oil production growing 100,000 bpd every month until April 2022. However, in our view, Russian oil companies are unlikely to be able to reach their quotas in accordance with the increasing OPEC+ schedule and deliver production of 10.4mn bpd of crude oil by May under the guided capex plans. We estimate that crude production will only recover to the OPEC+ target by the end of the year (10.2mn bpd in 2022F on average, up 6% y/y),” VTBC said in a note.  

 

 

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According to the data of the Federal Customs Service (FTS) of the Russian Federation, trade between Russia and the EU in 2021 increased by 46.6% year-on-year and amounted to USD 282.047 billion.
Together with exports from Russia to the EU, it increased by 65.4% to USD 188.115 billion, imports to Russia from the EU increased by 19.4% to USD 93.933 billion.
The EU's share of total foreign trade turnover of the Russian Federation increased to 35.9% from 33.8% a year earlier

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I see France is now planning to build 17 new reactors. Won't resolve any short or medium term issues but at least Macron has put some long term planning in place that will diversify Europes power supply away from gas. 

Its classic EUSSR nonsense politics. 

Anti nuclear Italy and Germany heavily reliant on imports on French nuclear electricity😄

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On 2/9/2022 at 6:08 AM, ronwagn said:

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/national-security-daily/2022/02/08/why-scholz-wont-say-hed-kill-ns2-00006847

Why Scholz won’t say he’d kill NS2

Scholz is in a weak coalition including the Greens. It could easily fall apart. RCW

 

By ALEXANDER WARD, ANDREW DESIDERIO and QUINT FORGEY 

 

02/08/2022 04:09 PM EST

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a news conference.

Politico iswrong even the coalition fails Scholz would then have conservativer one with the CDU

like Merkel for years and German Companies need those NS II. It could give a large Crash to Nato. If the German freeze the support.

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On 2/11/2022 at 4:41 PM, Starschy said:

Politico iswrong even the coalition fails Scholz would then have conservativer one with the CDU

like Merkel for years and German Companies need those NS II. It could give a large Crash to Nato. If the German freeze the support.

That is a very short sighted view, Germany has many options to avoid being dependent on Russian blackmail. 

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On 2/8/2022 at 7:02 PM, Tomasz said:

One simple question.

You live in USA or in Europe?

If you live in USA you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3 to realize you global policy.

Huge mess started by Maidan 2014

Watch this says it all

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4&t=1s

 you dont have a right to force us to pay over 1.000 $ per m3??? and you are a stockholder in Putins Gazprom.....Why are you not bitching at Putin for all his maneuvering to raise the price of oil and gas by his actions on the Ukrainian border....No one is forcing you to buy US gas........You can go without or switch to producing your own if you do not like the world price...In other words you are dependent on  importing gas and you are upset when the price goes up?? Crazy..........how do you think it was in the US in 1973?????? with the Arab oil embargo????

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Thursday, 5:28 a.m. SMS from a journalist friend: "In the morning, Russia invaded Ukraine ...". I rub my eyes in the forest hotel and check the internet. Indeed, President Putin's speech, the order for a "special military operation", outbursts, fights in Ukraine, a Russian attack on military infrastructure ... At the end of the day, President Zelensky gives a tragic balance of the day: 137 Ukrainian soldiers died. Russia does not disclose its losses. Fortunately, there are only a few civilian casualties.

Later, a phone rang asking for an assessment of the situation. It is difficult to comment with such a deficit of information. However, today we can say one thing for sure: war, war, and the gas flows in an even wider stream.

On Thursday morning, Gazprom issued a statement that " gas normally flows through Ukraine and satisfies customer orders" . And it must be added: not only does it flow, but it flows in a much wider stream. Through the largest collection point - Veľké Kapušany, in Slovakia, gas transmission has almost doubled . On Wednesday, 35 million m3 (372 GWh) was sent there, and on Thursday, 60 million m3 (631 MWh) were sent. Apparently, customers in Europe wanted to increase their inventories for the end of winter. The demand for gas in Europe has dropped significantly due to high prices. In the third quarter of 2021, consumption decreased by 10% y / y. So Europe doesn't need too much gas.

But demand is in demand, and price games are going their way. In America, the gas war went unnoticed, with prices down by one percent on Thursday. What is different in Europe. This is where the money flowed in from the markets, which reacted to the conflict with price drops. The prices of European gas on TTF (Title Transfer Facility - Dutch gas hub), which have been rising for two days now, skyrocketed: from 89 to 124 EUR / MWh. But during the day the trend was down, the markets rated the risk as not big enough to break price records (EUR 167 as of December 21). On the Polish TGE exchange, which is a passive echo of European exchanges rather than the local exchange, prices jumped from 392 to (TGEgasDA) to PLN 561 / MWh - by 43%.

But Europe needs gas strategically and in the long term. It is necessary as a stable source that complements unstable, intermittent wind or solar sources. The entire EU energy transformation without gas will be in ruins. And this is the flagship program of Brussels, huge money was spent on it, the most powerful interest groups were involved.

So the gas has to flow. War, not war, it must . We know such situations from poor third world countries, where around fights, war, explosions, and well-guarded (and usually not attacked by combatants) wells quietly extract black gold.

The German Energiewende or the European "energy transformation" are, of course, renewable sources. It goes without saying that Europe does not have its own energy resources. Obvious. However, in today's climate convention - energy transformation means gas, gas and gas again. There is no other option to secure a stable energy supply. That is why Germany is investing in gas by shutting down the coal and nuclear energy sectors. This is an official government strategy, and the need for new gas capacity is estimated at between 20 and 30 thousand megawatts. This is as much as Poland currently has stable coal-fired energy capacities.

Therefore, the reaction of the West to the war in Ukraine is restrained in energy matters. Russia's financing has been hit, although it has not been cut off from SWIFT. America will not finance this "nuclear option." Why? President Biden made it clear: “The sanctions we have imposed on Russian banks have greater ramifications than the blocking of SWIFT. It always remains an option, but at present it is not a move that Europe would agree to. '

And energy resources? His economic security adviser, Daleep Singh, explained: “We consciously limited our sanctions to have an impact on the Russian economy, but also to minimize costs for the US and our allies. To be clear: our sanctions are not meant to cause any disruptions in the export of energy resources from Russia ”. I guess clear?

Looking a bit ahead, I believe that gas supplies from Russia will be a stable element of Europe's energy security. If the war in Ukraine ends with Russia's victory, gas transmission through this country may increase several times. From today's 40 billion a year to which Russia was committed to the more than 100 billion that was once sent. This actually equates to the new Nord Stream 2 pipeline. And, in fact, it is not needed today. But with billions of dollars of Western energy companies involved, today's hiatus of the regulatory procedure will simply take longer than it seemed before Thursday. I think maybe a year, and maybe three years. It was the same with the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, which also waited a long time and there were also conflicts, for example in Georgia. In my opinion, after the end of this war, the procedure will resume and will end with the gas flowing through NS2 at full steam, as Nord Stream 1 is already flowing today.

Although maybe… not in full swing. There will be a huge excess of transmission capacity. Huge. And since Europe does not need too much gas, our section of Yamal will be empty. Sorry, come back, we will use it to import Russian gas from Germany.

Andrzej Szczęśniak

PS God, take care of Ukraine.

For: chemia.pl

photo: Moscow Times

https://myslpolska.info/2022/02/26/wojna-wojna-a-gaz-musi-plynac/

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