venezuala oil crisis

(edited)

Venezuala's oil crisis is worst crisis in second decade of 21st century.million's of people live under poverty and unemployment .can OPEC help venezuala?....

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Edited by Nizza
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OPEC probably could but it has no incentive to do so.  

Venezuela is in a huge mess, not resolvable without massive outside intervention. To even begin to start to get a handle on the mess, the currency has to be abandoned and some other currency, most likely the US Dollar,substituted. That just might get some segments of the economy re-started.  But even that will go nowhere until Maduro is removed.  Maduro has no "exit strategy," he has no place to flee to, except possibly Cuba. Nobody wants him around, and if he stays in Caracas and simply resigns, he will predictably be arrested, put on some trial, and hung.  He knows that that is his fate.  So he clings to power with a troop of Palace Guards and their guns. 

Mass starvation is the next step in this landscape of suffering.  Those who cannot flee to Brasil are going to die of hunger.  I see the only realistic solution in the use of the US Army (and Navy for transport).  The Army has the depth of manpower and reserves to get a handle on a mess so gargantuan.  Will the US intervene?  Very unlikely. Not with Donald in charge.

You may get some frittering at the edges, such as Chinese or Russian engineers coming in to get the oilfield machinery working.  But that is not going to stop the slow-motion starvation marching across Venezuela. the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse are going to march across Venezuela, leaving War, Famine, Pestilence, and Death behind, a devastated country and people.  I see a grim future there. 

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OPEC could help, allowing Venezuela to rent to other producers the part of it's quota not used as I explained in a former post...

 

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OPEC has already helped Venezuela by raising the price of oil. It is not OPEC's responsibility if the Dictator and his cronies decide to steal most of the money.

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2 hours ago, Refman said:

OPEC has already helped Venezuela by raising the price of oil. It is not OPEC's responsibility if the Dictator and his cronies decide to steal most of the money.

As true as that may be, I think Venezuela's problems go WAAAYYYYY beyond oil prices. Oil prices could skyrocket to $90 per barrel, and Venezuela's production would still continue its endless swirl down the toilet.

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Oh I didn't mean to imply that current prices would fix their problems, only that OPEC already helped them by boosting prices. Oil could go to $150 and it wouldn't save Venezuela from it's current problems which stem from greed and corruption. I'm 50/50 on if the country lasts till the end of the year without completely falling apart.

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Venezuelan oil sands are difficult to process, and they require a lot of energy (money) to make in a good quality crude, they got high breakeven costs

most importantly PDVSA is badly managed, they can't keep selling gasoline and diesel at joke prices because they are loosing money, and with low prices with high costs resources the profits for subsidizing are minimal

PDVSA just didn't get that they needed new more efficient machinery to make oil cheaper, yeah sure, the cost of life and the minimum wage of their employes is important, but employees are not necessarily the biggest price in oil production, and since they wasted money in free gasoline and not in equipment, they are now fucked up

Is possible to save PDVSA? well possibly, yeah, but not necessarily, it would need a deep and heavy reset, with highly qualified workers and engineers and not simple chavists that are there because they looked cool to some idiots on the gobverment, and sacryfing full months (or years) of profits for a renewal of the machinery for an crude that's not so great.

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