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Oil drops on Reported Russian pullback from Ukraine

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You never know with Russia. 

Could be an agreement or could be a head fake. 

We will see 

A few thoughts:

1. The troops pulling back are in Russia's southwest border with Ukraine.  Recently several aircraft carries and battleships have arrived that could launch an amphibious attack there. Additionally, intelligence has reported fresh troops are still heading toward the border.

2. Putin moved tanks and armament along the border over the last three months.  The large number of troops have only been sent close to the border over the last week or two. There are no facilities to house these troops at the border.  They are living in the cold, the mud and tents .  That's usually only good for 2 or 3 weeks.  Fighting in the winter is harder on the attacker than on the resident troops.  Maybe Putin needs more time ? Wait for warmer weather ?

3. The Russian Parliament just passed legislation that Donbas oblasts of Luhansk and Donetsk are "Independent" . Putin hasn't said whether he will sign but this is the perfect pretext for Russia to go in.  Either they go in based on legislation or Separatist declare independence , Ukraine reacts and Putin goes in .

4. Could a desperate Ukraine give Russia the Donbas ? Would other pro Russia oblast then declare independence ? Could Russia win with no or very little fighting ? 

I hope some agreement comes about. But I just wouldn't bet on it yet.



Edited by bobo88

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