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3-D Chess not the 2-D Chess of Ukraine-Russia - What is actually coming during this decade…

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(edited)

Russia is in progress for sure. 

The only Focus of Kyiev is wrong.

Ukraine lost 3 Ports Kherson, Berdiansk and in a few days Mariupol. Myklayev and Zaporizhia river Ports are at this time some fights. That means no more goods for Kiew. (Ukraine controls only Odessa Port at the Black sea)

Polish and Hungary Railways have different Track size compared to Ukraine.

No more Ports at the sea of Azov.

Ukraine lost 6 Nuclear Power stations in Zaporizhia

Major rule: The party which controls the Dnjepr controls Ukraine.

The smallest part of the Dnjepr River is in Zaporizhia.

 

Edited by Starschy

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8 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Why should they "dare"? Missing a point there, Jay. You froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank, the Russian Central Bank froze the Russian assets of your investors, including trillions worth of stock. So, there is no way, for example, for BP to drop their ~20% share of Rosneft like they announced. Given the prices for oil, don't think they are complaining too much. One force majeure overruling another.

Stop thinking like such an American. There are limits to power exerted by cut pieces of paper, and absolutely no legal basis to any of this activity. You feel like going to court over it? When the exchange reopens, it will probably be ruble-only for now, Russian ruble-based accounts continue to work unimpeded worldwide, probably via the Chinese CIPS. The great dollar-bypass manifesting itself on retail level for the first time? Should that be so, you pretty much destroyed SWIFT over nothing much. Because the sanctioned Russian banks already have correspondence accounts with non-sanctioned ones. Dare to switch off all the Russian banks now?

You froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank???? what??? the US got Putins gold stockpile????? Yet Putin is buying more gold......Now gold is always priced in Dollars....so does this mean Putin is ditching the Ruble for Gold and make a getaway  to flee Russia. As we all know the Ruble is worthless now because of him.???????

Russia’s Central Bank Is Scrambling To Buy Gold As Ruble Collapses

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 28, 2022, 11:30 AM CST

Russia’s central bank said on Sunday that it would start buying gold on the domestic market again, in the latest move to try to stabilize the financial markets and its reserves after Western sanctions targeted its banking system.

The central bank of Russia came under Western sanctions over the weekend, after the EU, the U.S., and allies decided to remove some Russian banks from the international SWIFT banking system and imposed restrictions on the Russian central bank in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally. Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions,” the European Commission said on Saturday.

 

Scrambling to contain a massive collapse in the Russian ruble and a bank run that already started in the weekend, the central bank of Russia now resumes buying gold after a two-year pause. Russia, which has the fifth-largest gold reserves in the world, stopped buying gold at the start of the pandemic when gold prices soared with investors seeking safe havens when equity and oil markets were collapsing.

Russia’s renewed buying of gold is set to further support gold prices, which have already risen by 6 percent this year. Early on Monday, spot gold increased by 1.1 percent to $1,909.16 per ounce and were on track to post their best month since May 2021.

Gold prices are likely to surpass the $2,000 per troy ounce price in the coming months, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday. Goldman has a $2,150/ounce price target on gold.

“Gold’s unique role as the currency of last resort will likely be apparent if restrictions on Russia’s central bank accessing its offshore reserves leave it leveraging its large domestic gold stockpiles to continue foreign trade, most likely with China,” Goldman’s analysts said.

 

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1 hour ago, notsonice said:

You froze the assets of the Russian Central Bank???? what??? the US got Putins gold stockpile????? Yet Putin is buying more gold......Now gold is always priced in Dollars....so does this mean Putin is ditching the Ruble for Gold and make a getaway  to flee Russia. As we all know the Ruble is worthless now because of him.???????

Russia’s Central Bank Is Scrambling To Buy Gold As Ruble Collapses

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Feb 28, 2022, 11:30 AM CST

Russia’s central bank said on Sunday that it would start buying gold on the domestic market again, in the latest move to try to stabilize the financial markets and its reserves after Western sanctions targeted its banking system.

The central bank of Russia came under Western sanctions over the weekend, after the EU, the U.S., and allies decided to remove some Russian banks from the international SWIFT banking system and imposed restrictions on the Russian central bank in response to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

“This will ensure that these banks are disconnected from the international financial system and harm their ability to operate globally. Second, we commit to imposing restrictive measures that will prevent the Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions,” the European Commission said on Saturday.

 

Scrambling to contain a massive collapse in the Russian ruble and a bank run that already started in the weekend, the central bank of Russia now resumes buying gold after a two-year pause. Russia, which has the fifth-largest gold reserves in the world, stopped buying gold at the start of the pandemic when gold prices soared with investors seeking safe havens when equity and oil markets were collapsing.

Russia’s renewed buying of gold is set to further support gold prices, which have already risen by 6 percent this year. Early on Monday, spot gold increased by 1.1 percent to $1,909.16 per ounce and were on track to post their best month since May 2021.

Gold prices are likely to surpass the $2,000 per troy ounce price in the coming months, Goldman Sachs said on Sunday. Goldman has a $2,150/ounce price target on gold.

“Gold’s unique role as the currency of last resort will likely be apparent if restrictions on Russia’s central bank accessing its offshore reserves leave it leveraging its large domestic gold stockpiles to continue foreign trade, most likely with China,” Goldman’s analysts said.

 

Would you read the article before you post?

a) No, you haven't got "Putin's gold stockpile" It is in Russia. What you got is one giant gaping void where the gold should be in the Ford Knox, or whatnot. Keep dreaming.

b) They are buying up gold in domestic market. This means all the new gold mined in Russia (which is #2 in the world, behind China) now goes to the Central Bank. Again. They used to do that for a couple of years, then relaxed. No dollars, fool. Rubles they can conjure at will, being a central bank responsible for them. In Russia, Russian rules.

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1 hour ago, Starschy said:

Russia is in progress for sure. 

The only Focus of Kyiev is wrong.

Ukraine lost 3 Ports Kherson, Berdiansk and in a few days Mariupol. Myklayev and Zaporizhia river Ports are at this time some fights. That means no more goods for Kiew. (Ukraine controls only Odessa Port at the Black sea)

Polish and Hungary Railways have different Track size compared to Ukraine.

No more Ports at the sea of Azov.

Ukraine lost 6 Nuclear Power stations in Zaporizhia

Major rule: The party which controls the Dnjepr controls Ukraine.

The smallest part of the Dnjepr River is in Zaporizhia.

 

Ports are irrelevant, because the Russian Navy controls the sea from Day 1.

Taking over NPPs changes nothing. They still produce power.

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9 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Stock worth trillions of Rubbles is only a few tens of billions in real money. BPs stake in Rosnfet is only worth 14 billion USD. The legality of all this has long been settled. The courts won't even bother hearing the case. All the major western countries have announced freezing of Russia central bank assets.

Banks outside Russia aren't going to touch any transaction with Russia for fear of being sanctioned. It has happened many times before. We even fined the Bank of Moscow once for violating our sanctions and we will do it again.

Russia is running out of options to participate in the global financial system as it faces bank runs and a ruble crash. Over the weekend, all G-7 countries moved to freeze Russia’s foreign currency reserve assets.

A scoop on BP's stake, officially worth only $9 bln today.

Made $2.7+ bln for BP last year, which is 1/3 of their total profits. In the total period of ownership since 2013, made 65% of their total profits. Obviously the best thing to happen to BP in ages. If divested for real, BP would take a $25 bln write-off. Russian government is buying, of course. Russian peoples demand consolidation of formerly Soviet oil industries, supposedly.

They are already backpedaling of SWIFT, because it appears to be strengthening the ruble. Care to hypothesize why?

Awful timing for Uncle Sam. Your real inflation is probably south of 20%, not 8% they officially admit. You badly, badly need minor currencies like rubles now to bleed off your inflation to them, like you always do.

 

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1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

A scoop on BP's stake, officially worth only $9 bln today.

Made $2.7+ bln for BP last year, which is 1/3 of their total profits. In the total period of ownership since 2013, made 65% of their total profits. Obviously the best thing to happen to BP in ages. If divested for real, BP would take a $25 bln write-off. Russian government is buying, of course. Russian peoples demand consolidation of formerly Soviet oil industries, supposedly.

They are already backpedaling of SWIFT, because it appears to be strengthening the ruble. Care to hypothesize why?

Awful timing for Uncle Sam. Your real inflation is probably south of 20%, not 8% they officially admit. You badly, badly need minor currencies like rubles now to bleed off your inflation to them, like you always do.

 

BP said they would write off the $25 billion this quarter if needed.

You like to make claims without evidence. How about a link to your claimed SWIFT backpedaling?

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Just now, Jay McKinsey said:

BP said they would write off the $25 billion this quarter if needed.

You like to make claims without evidence. How about a link to your claimed SWIFT backpedaling?

What can I say, good riddance. Russian government is buying at current market if they really are selling. If not, it is officially a frozen asset.

Don't care to prove this one, the source is on YouTube and is in Russian. One way or another, this is the end of SWIFT, the torch passes to Chinese CIPS / Russian SPFS regionally. Obviously, there won't be official press releases about this.

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1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What can I say, good riddance. Russian government is buying at current market if they really are selling. If not, it is officially a frozen asset.

Don't care to prove this one, the source is on YouTube and is in Russian. One way or another, this is the end of SWIFT, the torch passes to Chinese CIPS / Russian SPFS regionally. Obviously, there won't be official press releases about this.

Of course you don't care to prove your claim. Pathetic.

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1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Of course you don't care to prove your claim. Pathetic.

How is your spoken Russian comprehension, Jay?

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1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

How is your spoken Russian comprehension, Jay?

Your evidence is some lone Russian youtube video made by Putin's propaganda machine? Pathetic. SWIFT sanctions are advancing just as said when they were first announced. Seven banks are being disconnected right now with more to follow.

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3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Your evidence is some lone Russian youtube video made by Putin's propaganda machine? Pathetic. SWIFT sanctions are advancing just as said when they were first announced. Seven banks are being disconnected right now with more to follow.

There is no "Putin propaganda machine" like yours. It is a private source I follow. I don't owe you anything, leave it or take it. They were not going to turn off all the Russian banks anyway, only the largest and best known ones, if you read the fine print. So, the sanctioned banks will simply get correspondence accounts with the non-sanctioned ones, and it is business as usual. Otherwise, you are going to have to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles or yuan.

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Just now, Andrei Moutchkine said:

There is no "Putin propaganda machine" like yours. It is a private source I follow. I don't owe you anything, leave it or take it. They were not going to turn off all the Russian banks anyway, only the largest and best known ones, if you read the fine print. So, the sanctioned banks will simply get correspondence accounts with the non-sanctioned ones, and it is business as usual. Otherwise, you are going to have to pay for Russian oil and gas in rubles or yuan.

You asked me to comment on it. Or did you forget that already? 

Unsurprisingly you have it backwards. They were going to shut down the smaller banks and leave the largest best known ones untouched for now and that is what they have done. Sberbank and Gazprombank have been spared for now.

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(edited)

9 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You asked me to comment on it. Or did you forget that already? 

Unsurprisingly you have it backwards. They were going to shut down the smaller banks and leave the largest best known ones untouched for now and that is what they have done. Sberbank and Gazprombank have been spared for now.

No, they weren't. That's backpedaling right there. Sberbank, VTB and Alpha Bank were named initially and those are the largest banks. Incidentally, the couple of oligarchs who own Alpha, are some of the most vocal opponents of Putin's already. The best present you can make him is expropriating and sanctioning Russian billionaires. They already hate the guy with abandon, but now some may actually switch and become the best patriots. Because it is hard to shake the impression the West simply wants their assets.

Are VTB and Alpha still sanctioned? Gazprombank is no longer related to Gazprom.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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(edited)

35 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

No, they weren't. That's backpedaling right there. Sberbank, VTB and Alpha Bank were named initially and those are the largest banks. Incidentally, the couple of oligarchs who own Alpha, are some of the most vocal opponents of Putin's already. The best present you can make him is expropriating and sanctioning Russian billionaires. They already hate the guy with abandon, but now some may actually switch and become the best patriots. Because it is hard to shake the impression the West simply wants their assets.

Are VTB and Alpha still sanctioned? Gazprombank is no longer related to Gazprom.

You are confusing the SWIFT removals and the general bank sanctions. Sberbank has been heavily sanctioned but not removed from SWIFT. VTB got both. Alpha has a very minor sanction and not removed from SWIFT.  Is there anything else I can google for you? /sarcasm

No banks were named for SWIFT removal until today.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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China's Russian coal purchases stall as buyers struggle to secure financing

 

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chinese traders are scaling back imports of Russian coal as they struggle to secure financing from state banks worried about potential sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, in early signs of supply disruption from the world's third-largest coal seller.

Coal prices from other exporters Indonesia, Australia and South Africa have jumped this week, with benchmark Newcastle coal hitting a record $274.50 a tonne on Monday, a 15% rise, in the wake of Russia's launch of what it said was a "special military operation" in Ukraine on Thursday.

A related graphic: Key global coal prices: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/movandlonpa/GlobalCoalPricesMar2022.png

China is Russia's largest coal buyer, taking in more than 50 million tonnes of coal worth $7.4 billion last year via rail and sea from Russia's Far East. Russia accounted for roughly 15% of China's total imports and was its second largest supplier behind Indonesia.

"Most banks have stopped issuing letters of credit after the SWIFT sanctions. As almost all contracts are dollar-denominated, we have no other way to make the payment," said a China-based trader dealing in Russian coal.

A related graphic: Russia coal exports by destination: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/jnvwebxravw/RussiaCoalExports2021.png

Other traders are in discussions with Russian exporters about paying with the Chinese currency for the first time.

"We're waiting for their response, but trades have been put on hold for now," said a second trader, who imports Russian coal regularly via rail into northeast China.

The United States and its allies on Saturday moved to block certain Russian banks' access to the SWIFT international payment system that facilitates the bulk of international financial flows.

While some buyers could eventually resort to using China's onshore clearing and settlement system, known as CIPS, overall purchases by China have been muted since last week after Beijing cut the domestic price cap that makes coal imports largely uneconomical.

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28 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You are confusing the SWIFT removals and the general bank sanctions. Sberbank has been heavily sanctioned but not removed from SWIFT. VTB got both. Alpha has a very minor sanction and not removed from SWIFT.  Is there anything else I can google for you? /sarcasm

No banks were named for SWIFT removal until today.

Thanks. You have good OSINT skills, so why don't I put you to some good use? Google is not authoritative for stuff that changes so fast.

Britain loses one of its best banks today (VTB) Back home it goes. So, they woke up and spared their toadies at AlphaGroup? They'll do anything for you, except overthrow Putin. That does not work. Sberbank does not give a damn about SWIFT. They are the 3rd largest wireless acquiring network worldwide (behind American JPM and FIN, but not by much) So, the whole thing is progressively falling into the range of non-significance and shooting yourself in a foot. What about Tinkoff Bank?

 

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Russia's rich, powerless oligarchs:


Russia’s wealth is even more concentrated in the hands of a few people today than it was when Putin took power. The 500 Russians with a net worth of more than $100mn control 40 per cent of the country’s household wealth, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group last year. That means Russia’s super-rich are three times wealthier than their average counterparts globally.

But those vast riches do not bring political power.

And even if Russia’s oligarchs were to demand changes from Putin, they would still be unable to change his mind, one of the people briefed on the meeting said. “Imagine they go to complain to Putin,” said a diplomat from a European country where several Russian oligarchs own large assets. “They say, ‘Can you please revise your policy? I lost $4bn of my $5bn’. Putin says, ‘Do you want to keep the $1bn?’”

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5cd2c951-6b23-4e07-a72d-4731f7a71b58

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5 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

China's Russian coal purchases stall as buyers struggle to secure financing

 

BEIJING/SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Chinese traders are scaling back imports of Russian coal as they struggle to secure financing from state banks worried about potential sanctions after Russia invaded Ukraine, in early signs of supply disruption from the world's third-largest coal seller.

Coal prices from other exporters Indonesia, Australia and South Africa have jumped this week, with benchmark Newcastle coal hitting a record $274.50 a tonne on Monday, a 15% rise, in the wake of Russia's launch of what it said was a "special military operation" in Ukraine on Thursday.

A related graphic: Key global coal prices: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/movandlonpa/GlobalCoalPricesMar2022.png

China is Russia's largest coal buyer, taking in more than 50 million tonnes of coal worth $7.4 billion last year via rail and sea from Russia's Far East. Russia accounted for roughly 15% of China's total imports and was its second largest supplier behind Indonesia.

"Most banks have stopped issuing letters of credit after the SWIFT sanctions. As almost all contracts are dollar-denominated, we have no other way to make the payment," said a China-based trader dealing in Russian coal.

A related graphic: Russia coal exports by destination: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/jnvwebxravw/RussiaCoalExports2021.png

Other traders are in discussions with Russian exporters about paying with the Chinese currency for the first time.

"We're waiting for their response, but trades have been put on hold for now," said a second trader, who imports Russian coal regularly via rail into northeast China.

The United States and its allies on Saturday moved to block certain Russian banks' access to the SWIFT international payment system that facilitates the bulk of international financial flows.

While some buyers could eventually resort to using China's onshore clearing and settlement system, known as CIPS, overall purchases by China have been muted since last week after Beijing cut the domestic price cap that makes coal imports largely uneconomical.

This got to be BS. The Chinese are buying all the coal they can mine right now and asking for more. Also, mining like crazy themselves.

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2 minutes ago, surrept33 said:

Russia's rich, powerless oligarchs:


Russia’s wealth is even more concentrated in the hands of a few people today than it was when Putin took power. The 500 Russians with a net worth of more than $100mn control 40 per cent of the country’s household wealth, according to a study by the Boston Consulting Group last year. That means Russia’s super-rich are three times wealthier than their average counterparts globally.

But those vast riches do not bring political power.

And even if Russia’s oligarchs were to demand changes from Putin, they would still be unable to change his mind, one of the people briefed on the meeting said. “Imagine they go to complain to Putin,” said a diplomat from a European country where several Russian oligarchs own large assets. “They say, ‘Can you please revise your policy? I lost $4bn of my $5bn’. Putin says, ‘Do you want to keep the $1bn?’”

 

https://www.ft.com/content/5cd2c951-6b23-4e07-a72d-4731f7a71b58

They found out just now? There is no such thing as a "Kremlin-near oligarch"  to be sanctioned. Putin is bad for big private business. The plan that those guys will raise up and take him out for you is beyond naïve though. Moreover, this is the Maidan scenario which is not ever happening again not only in Russia, but anywhere else in ex-USSR. Also, an oligarch without political power is no oligarch, but a regular gazillionaire. By definition of oligarch.

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7 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

This got to be BS. The Chinese are buying all the coal they can mine right now and asking for more. Also, mining like crazy themselves.

Ah conservatives, the most common attribute that ties all of you together is your affinity for old data.

China, the world’s biggest coal importer, has recorded a weak start to 2022, with February imports of 11.65 million tonnes marginally higher than January’s 11.27 million, but the combined total for the first two months of the year is the lowest Refinitiv has assessed.

Imports in the first two months of 22.92 million tonnes are 46.2% below the 42.58 million recorded in the first two months of last year, according to Refinitiv.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asias-coal-imports-decline-but-ukraine-crisis-will-keep-prices-up/

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13 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ah conservatives, the most common attribute that ties all of you together is your affinity for old data.

China, the world’s biggest coal importer, has recorded a weak start to 2022, with February imports of 11.65 million tonnes marginally higher than January’s 11.27 million, but the combined total for the first two months of the year is the lowest Refinitiv has assessed.

Imports in the first two months of 22.92 million tonnes are 46.2% below the 42.58 million recorded in the first two months of last year, according to Refinitiv.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asias-coal-imports-decline-but-ukraine-crisis-will-keep-prices-up/

Nobody ever called me a conservative before. More like too lazy to double-check again. That's what I have you for :)

Ultimately, the whole Chinese coal thing is a fluke. They were supposed to be ahead of anybody else on the way to carbon-free heaven already. Sometimes, even a Party decree fails to deliver (though it usually does not)

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25 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Ah conservatives, the most common attribute that ties all of you together is your affinity for old data.

China, the world’s biggest coal importer, has recorded a weak start to 2022, with February imports of 11.65 million tonnes marginally higher than January’s 11.27 million, but the combined total for the first two months of the year is the lowest Refinitiv has assessed.

Imports in the first two months of 22.92 million tonnes are 46.2% below the 42.58 million recorded in the first two months of last year, according to Refinitiv.https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/asias-coal-imports-decline-but-ukraine-crisis-will-keep-prices-up/

Where is Echo with his Mongolian coal to save China? Ironic if China had to tell Australia. Oops I did it again. Can we buy some coal?

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Economic brain drain:

Quote

 

Senior EU officials tell me the EU is considering offering qualified Russian 🇷🇺 citizens EU 🇪🇺 passports - to accelerate Russian economic brain drain

This is just one of many innovative measures being considered to complement economic sanctions now in place 🇪🇺🇺🇦

 

https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1498621080721932289

 

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13 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Nobody ever called me a conservative before. More like too lazy to double-check again. That's what I have you for :)

Ultimately, the whole Chinese coal thing is a fluke. They were supposed to be ahead of anybody else on the way to carbon-free heaven already. Sometimes, even a Party decree fails to deliver (though it usually does not)

Most countries lie about stuff. It’s human nature. There is hype about green but little movement on going green.  Musk is behind on a couple of car factories but doubling the size of the one in China. He has at least 4 battery factories lined up to be rolling at mass production by 2024. There may be more, I kinda track loosely. We may get surprised but I don’t see massive rapid development in any green area in the 1-2 year short term. But steady as she goes as far as historically growing rapidly. Further cost cutting by efficiency gains and tech gains is happening and will happen, just not fast enough for the right. Lol

I want to know the price impact of these new battery cells and giga presses squeezing out those huge parts. Claims of faster/shorter production lines. Claims of cheaper batteries with more density, lighter weight, more power and much cheaper to boot. At the end of 1-2 years Musk should be rolling. By then the competition strengths and weaknesses should be clearer. 

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Would you read the article before you post?

a) No, you haven't got "Putin's gold stockpile" It is in Russia. What you got is one giant gaping void where the gold should be in the Ford Knox, or whatnot. Keep dreaming.

b) They are buying up gold in domestic market. This means all the new gold mined in Russia (which is #2 in the world, behind China) now goes to the Central Bank. Again. They used to do that for a couple of years, then relaxed. No dollars, fool. Rubles they can conjure at will, being a central bank responsible for them. In Russia, Russian rules.

ha ha ha just pimping you  out . Of Course we do not have Putins gold pile...nor do your aveage Russian. (they could never afford gold)

Yep he is buying up gold and swapping them for devalued Rubles. Flooding the market with more worthless rubles actually hurts the Ruble. He should be doing the opposite and buying Rubles and selling gold domestically............Which would you want when you go to the bank in a time of war ....Gold or Rubles??? it is a no brainer. 

Russian rules what???? A stock market that is closed ... A currency in a free fall ....No more airlines (did you see that all the leased aircraft are getting pulled out???) enjoy 

Edited by notsonice

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