Putin wants Ukraine Natural Gas ? Water restarted to CRIMEA ?

[ronwagn + 6,290]

4 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Actually this dilemma happened a few years back when Canadian oil did not find enough buyers and had to sold at massive discounts. People tried to blame it on lack of pipelines but the reality is that it is lack of demand for tar sands. Tar sands need to be mixed with light condensate to blend it into heavy oil. If you look at the production of Venezuela and Canada from 2010, it is clearly visible how Canada substituted venezuela rather than add to it. Canada has too much oil sands but they can't export it to anyone else. It is not that Canada is dumb to not have a refinery themselves for export. Considering that Canadian oil sands were sold for decades, it would only make sense that Canada would have already developed refineries if it was feasible

We have the light oil to blend, but if we can get it from a stable Venezuela that is nearby it is easier to deliver. We need a stable South America and not let China get control of things there. 

I would think that the best use might be asphalt or burning it and producing electricity. Maybe natural gas is cheaper and it is cleaner. What do you think?

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, ronwagn said:

We have the light oil to blend, but if we can get it from a stable Venezuela that is nearby it is easier to deliver. We need a stable South America and not let China get control of things there. 

I would think that the best use might be asphalt or burning it and producing electricity. Maybe natural gas is cheaper and it is cleaner. What do you think?

Venezuelan tar sands are of higher quality than Canadian ones and has lower viscosity and lower impurities. It is also politically beneficial for USA to have friendly Venezuela. But that is long past. Currently USA openly states that Maduro is illegitimate and hosts Venezuelan exile govt of Guaido and also confiscated Citgo. Maduro had to take the support of China and Russia to secure revenues and arm his population to provide resistance against invasion. Maduro gives free oil to Cuba to get Cuban support in stabilising Venezuela. Maduro was even desperately campaigning in GCC countries for support by campaigning against Israel. In this circumstance, it is highly unlikely that Maduro will agree to get friendly to USA. He will still hedge China and Russia against USA for his own safety. Had USA not gone this far against Maduro, there was a chance of reconciliation.

The best use for using excess tar sands will be to use it as asphalt or even burn it to get electricity. But the biggest problem with tar sands is that it is a gooey substance which is difficult to transport without blending. It is even more difficult than transporting coal as its sticky nature makes it difficult to offload. Moreover with abundant natural gas from new oilfields, it is much cheaper to use gas instead.

[surrept33 + 609]

1 hour ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Maduro was even desperately campaigning in GCC countries for support by campaigning against Israel. In this circumstance, it is highly unlikely that Maduro will agree to get friendly to USA. He will still hedge China and Russia against USA for his own safety. Had USA not gone this far against Maduro, there was a chance of reconciliation.

That's prehistory. Completely different world after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Strange bedfellows, but it looks like the US + EU + Iran + Venezuela are on one side, Russia + Saudi + UAE are another. So far at least.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/world/americas/venezuela-american-prisoner-release.html

 

Venezuela Releases Imprisoned Americans After Talks With U.S.

Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere.

 

The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years.

The released men are Gustavo Cárdenas, an executive at the American branch of Venezuela’s state oil company who was detained in 2017, and Jorge Alberto Fernández, according to a U.S. official and an American businessman who was briefed on the situation. Mr. Fernández, a Cuban American, was a tourist who was accused of terrorism for bringing a drone into Venezuela in February 2021, according to his lawyer.

At least eight other U.S. nationals remain jailed in Caracas on charges ranging from embezzlement to terrorism.

The purpose of the American officials’ visit to Venezuela was to discuss “energy security” and the status of imprisoned Americans, the White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a news conference.

Mr. Maduro said he received the American delegation at the presidential palace and called the meeting “respectful, cordial, very diplomatic.” The talks, he said, would continue. He also said he would restart talks with the country’s opposition.

The Venezuelan government wants to resume oil sales to the United States to take advantage of high oil prices and to replace the revenues from trade channels it built through the Russian financial system that have been frozen by Western nations to punish Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to officials and oil businessmen in the country.

Selling directly to the United States would also allow Mr. Maduro to reap full profits from the highest oil prices in more than a decade, instead of selling the crude at deep discount to a network of middlemen used to bypass the U.S. ban, they said.

Before that ban, Venezuela exported most of its oil to the United States, whose Gulf refineries were built to process the country’s heavy crude.

Edited March 9, 2022 by surrept33

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

1 hour ago, surrept33 said:

That's prehistory. Completely different world after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Strange bedfellows, but it looks like the US + EU + Iran + Venezuela are on one side, Russia + Saudi + UAE are another. So far at least.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/world/americas/venezuela-american-prisoner-release.html

 

Venezuela Releases Imprisoned Americans After Talks With U.S.

Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere.

 

The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years.

The released men are Gustavo Cárdenas, an executive at the American branch of Venezuela’s state oil company who was detained in 2017, and Jorge Alberto Fernández, according to a U.S. official and an American businessman who was briefed on the situation. Mr. Fernández, a Cuban American, was a tourist who was accused of terrorism for bringing a drone into Venezuela in February 2021, according to his lawyer.

At least eight other U.S. nationals remain jailed in Caracas on charges ranging from embezzlement to terrorism.

The purpose of the American officials’ visit to Venezuela was to discuss “energy security” and the status of imprisoned Americans, the White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a news conference.

Mr. Maduro said he received the American delegation at the presidential palace and called the meeting “respectful, cordial, very diplomatic.” The talks, he said, would continue. He also said he would restart talks with the country’s opposition.

The Venezuelan government wants to resume oil sales to the United States to take advantage of high oil prices and to replace the revenues from trade channels it built through the Russian financial system that have been frozen by Western nations to punish Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to officials and oil businessmen in the country.

Selling directly to the United States would also allow Mr. Maduro to reap full profits from the highest oil prices in more than a decade, instead of selling the crude at deep discount to a network of middlemen used to bypass the U.S. ban, they said.

Before that ban, Venezuela exported most of its oil to the United States, whose Gulf refineries were built to process the country’s heavy crude.

Venezuela is willing to trade with USA but that does not mean it is willing to side with USA in security matters. Same goes with Iran. Trade and security are very different aspects. Venezuela and Iran know not to trust USA due to repeated cycles of sanctions and waivers. They have also seen how stable Russia & China are in terms of trade relations as well as security cooperation. The biggest question in the minds of Iranians and Venezuelans will be about when USA will reimpose sanctions or attempt another insurrection. Iran just signed a long term contract with China for oil sales and will continue selling oil even after lifting of sanctions. Same will be the case with Venezuela. Releasing a few prisoners mean nothing as it is just a small gesture. Overthinking about it is futile

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Russia fights by around 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

For the first week, she used only about 50-60,000.

The equipment used in this operation is rather quite old - the T-72B and BWP-2 are at least 30-35 years old.

At the same time, Russia is building humanitarian corridors.

In my opinion, the strategic goals are 2- to close Ukraine's path to NATO definitively without annexing further territories. Two - triggering a wave of several million emigrants to the European Union as a means of putting pressure on the Union in order to lift sanctions.

By Russian standards, they are not fighting too brutally - according to UN data, about 500 civilians have died so far. By comparison, 500,000 civilians died in Syria.

In my opinion, sooner or later the West will have to accept the NATO border on the Bug. This corresponds to the traditional border of the Russian sphere of influence.

[Starschy + 211]

Fact is that Russia gaining Momentum. Not in the Nord instead of the more important South part.

The Russian attack shows the Troops in the Nord and North east part the central Point is above Dnjepro. This lead to a weakness in the South.

 

At this time Ukraine lost 3 Ports Mariupol, Berdiansk, Kherson. Some Ports in Mykolaijev, and those 3 large ones are in great danger up to the nex 14 days. Illyschewsk, Yuzhny and Odessa. The last 3 are the largest one.

All Ports from Dnjeper River from Kherson upwards can no longer sent their Ships to the Black Sea. There are more or less only small maintenance Jobs for those Ports and Boat Companies.

The Ukraine Ports handle 150 Million Tonnes of Cargo.  We're discussing 60% of all Exports and 50% of all Imports. For the Summer no more Grain Exports by Ukraine only by Russian Ports or Russian handled Ukraine Ports. The same with Ukraine Coals and Sunflower Oil.

The next thing which may be under Russian controll is the Oil/Gas Pipeline coming from Dnjepro to Romania / Bulgaria. That one may be under Russian control inside Ukraine in the next 2-3 days.

Next step is the attack to Dnjepro to Center of the Ukraine Industrie. Multiple Power Stations.

 

[El Gato + 251]

1 hour ago, Starschy said:

Fact is that Russia gaining Momentum. Not in the Nord instead of the more important South part.

The Russian attack shows the Troops in the Nord and North east part the central Point is above Dnjepro. This lead to a weakness in the South.

 

At this time Ukraine lost 3 Ports Mariupol, Berdiansk, Kherson. Some Ports in Mykolaijev, and those 3 large ones are in great danger up to the nex 14 days. Illyschewsk, Yuzhny and Odessa. The last 3 are the largest one.

All Ports from Dnjeper River from Kherson upwards can no longer sent their Ships to the Black Sea. There are more or less only small maintenance Jobs for those Ports and Boat Companies.

The Ukraine Ports handle 150 Million Tonnes of Cargo.  We're discussing 60% of all Exports and 50% of all Imports. For the Summer no more Grain Exports by Ukraine only by Russian Ports or Russian handled Ukraine Ports. The same with Ukraine Coals and Sunflower Oil.

The next thing which may be under Russian controll is the Oil/Gas Pipeline coming from Dnjepro to Romania / Bulgaria. That one may be under Russian control inside Ukraine in the next 2-3 days.

Next step is the attack to Dnjepro to Center of the Ukraine Industrie. Multiple Power Stations.

 

Last I checked Mariupol was was still in Ukrainian hands. Any confirmation? Odessa has has a minefield off of it that the Russian navy drove a merchant ship into and sank.

 

1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

Russia fights by around 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

For the first week, she used only about 50-60,000.

The equipment used in this operation is rather quite old - the T-72B and BWP-2 are at least 30-35 years old.

At the same time, Russia is building humanitarian corridors.

In my opinion, the strategic goals are 2- to close Ukraine's path to NATO definitively without annexing further territories. Two - triggering a wave of several million emigrants to the European Union as a means of putting pressure on the Union in order to lift sanctions.

By Russian standards, they are not fighting too brutally - according to UN data, about 500 civilians have died so far. By comparison, 500,000 civilians died in Syria.

In my opinion, sooner or later the West will have to accept the NATO border on the Bug. This corresponds to the traditional border of the Russian sphere of influence.

IF, and it's still an if, Putin takes over Ukraine, The Baltic states, Poland and Moldova will be in the crosshairs next

[nsdp + 449]

On 2/28/2022 at 1:36 AM, surrept33 said:

I'm guessing Putin will be heavily motivated to stop this war and negotiate with the Urankians. Hopefully there will be peace.

Here is a translation of a interview of noted economist Sergey Guriev who sat on the board of Sberbank for years:

 

“The war costs the Russians dearly. And it will cost even more.” What will happen to the ruble? And what about the Russian economy as a whole? Answered by Sergey Guriev

 

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/02/28/voyna-stoit-rossiyanam-dorogo-i-budet-stoit-esche-dorozhe

— The EU, the US and Canada announced the freezing of the reserves of the Central Bank. It seems that this scared everyone more than the disconnection from SWIFT. How hard will it hit us?

- This is very important news, absolutely unexpected, no one knew that this was possible. The presence of reserves has been one of the key pillars of macroeconomic stability - what will happen tomorrow in the foreign exchange market is difficult to predict. Just because it never happened.

We are entering a situation in which it is difficult to predict how the ruble will behave. Maybe tomorrow there will be no auction. Maybe there will be panic. But this is a huge blow to the ruble. This can be said with absolute certainty.

 

- Does it depend on the country in which the Central Bank reserves are actually stored now?

— Yes, it does. Now some say: it's okay, the Central Bank still has gold and yuan, they can definitely be sold. It's also a non-obvious moment. Because American sanctions are a very serious mechanism, and Chinese banks will not necessarily want to help the Russian Central Bank, because America can impose serious punishment on them for this. It's happened before, it's not a theory. For example, with the French bank BNP Paribas, which violated US sanctions and was forced to pay a multi-billion dollar fine. I can't imagine that Chinese banks would be willing to help Russia at that cost.

 

The situation is completely unclear. Will it be possible to sell gold tens, as [Mikhail] Bulgakov would say? It is not entirely clear who would want to buy this gold [from the Central Bank's reserves] at the risk of falling under US sanctions. America may prohibit Chinese banks from buying Russian gold and exchanging the yuan that the Central Bank has for dollars. And the Russian Central Bank, of course, needs dollars and euros, because most of the imports of the Russian economy are still Europe. To buy pills, technology, food, you need dollars, not yuan.

Whether Chinese banks can help Russia cope with the shortage of dollars or euros is completely unclear. I wouldn't bet on it. I think that, most likely, Chinese banks will say: “Sorry, we are great friends and we think that you are great fellows, but because of American sanctions we will not be able to cooperate with you.”

 

 

Is a scenario realistic in which Russians will begin to withdraw dollar savings?

Yes, absolutely real. This is how they will be removed. You will be told: "You have dollars, but you do not have the right to withdraw them, you can convert them into rubles at the rate set by the state." Such a scenario is quite possible.

The scenario when import will be sharply reduced is real. It turns out that Russian citizens do not have enough dollars, or the dollar is very expensive, and Russians cannot afford to buy medicines, because they cannot afford them. 

— Are there any examples of such sanctions working?

- It works, of course. I will give you an example of Iran. Iran wanted to build its own nuclear bomb, sanctions were imposed, Iran went to negotiations and made a deal  - negotiations. And until the arrival of Donald Trump, this deal was supported.

Most likely, such harsh sanctions will lead to the fact that Vladimir Putin will have to start negotiations on the withdrawal of troops from Ukraine. And the discontent of the citizens will push him to this. I would not put my money on the fact that tomorrow grateful citizens will come out with posters: “Thank you, Vladimir Vladimirovich, for the ruble is much cheaper than last week. We support the war against the brotherly people." There will be no such rallies tomorrow. Sooner or later he will have to negotiate. 

- If Putin goes to negotiations and withdraws troops, what will happen to the Russian economy?

- The main question is which sanctions will be lifted. But I can't tell you anything good. Because the very precedent that happened suggests that something is possible in Russia that was not expected before. In this sense, I am not sure that all sanctions will be lifted, and most importantly, I am not sure that there will be a sharp influx of investments, because Western investors will think: “I am now investing in Russia, and then Vladimir Putin will come up with something new, and I will lose everything. 

- Are there options for tightening existing sanctions?

— I can tell you a lot of things, but I won’t, so that it doesn’t seem that I am suggesting some ideas to people who are imposing sanctions against Russia. I can say one thing: an embargo on the export of Russian oil may be introduced. If you had asked me two days ago, I would have said: this is impossible. Now we see that everything is possible. 

- When can this happen and what will replace it?

“It will be replaced by the expansion of shale oil production in America. Vladimir Putin will try to sell Russian oil to China and simply get a lower price for it. But I don't think it will be needed. I think that there are already so many sanctions today that Vladimir Putin has many incentives to negotiate. Although I wouldn't predict anything. 

- Another serious sanction is a ban on the export of high technologies to Russia. What will it lead to?

- Russia will not have prospects for technological development. Everything Russia wants to do in the technology field depends on cooperation with other countries. Russia is not alone in this. China also cannot do anything on its own. And America. iPhones are not made only in America. There is a simple fact: the most advanced microchips are made in Taiwan. Taiwan has joined the sanctions. This means that the development of technology in Russia will stop.

- What did Putin count on when starting the war, knowing that we are so dependent on other countries?

- It is difficult to judge, but I probably thought that the West would not dare to impose such serious sanctions. Secondly, he believed that the war would be over very quickly, and everyone would be confronted with this fact. Why impose sanctions if everything is already over? But it happened differently. Western leaders felt cheated, Western society - which is very important - saw that 1939 had come again, they know that 1940, 1941, 1945 are coming after 1939, and no one wants a new European war. And Western society demanded drastic measures from their governments. 

Is the West risking something by imposing such sanctions? Russia can stop gas supplies?

- The West is ready for this, it is discussing it quite seriously. The West knows that it depends on gas less than Russia depends on gas supplies. 

 

That is why today Vladimir Putin did not say that he would stop gas supplies and the Europeans would burn wood. He  said : we have nuclear weapons. This is what everyone is afraid of. That is why Western soldiers will not fight on Ukrainian soil. However, we must remember the statement of the French Foreign Minister [Jean-Yves] Le Drian, who said: "Do not forget that NATO is also a nuclear alliance." But the price of life in the West is very high, no one wants a nuclear war. Everyone hopes that economic measures will be enough. 

Do you think they will be enough?

- I think yes. I gave you the example of Iran. Of course, it is quite possible that Vladimir Putin will continue the war. But there is another important factor - the Ukrainian people continue to resist. Without his heroic defense of his country, economic sanctions would not have been enough.

 

Several things you youngsters need to learn from History. Sanctions broke the back of both Southern Rhodesia and South Africa. Despite vast mineral wealth gold , diamonds, coal and the majority of food stuffs in sub Saharan Africa neither has really recovered. local corruption hasn't helped but sanctions broke both economies. What is different in Russia?

Second, we still have technology sanctions in place on Serbia.  IBM at 3nm is no.1 in the world all goes to US govt and select NATO partners. TSMC(5 and 6nm a generation behind IBM) makes wafers only for Ryzen and Zen in Taiwan.  Wafer Infinity fabric made in Austin TX.   I have a new 5800 thayt says assembled in USA. Ten years ago that was Thailand. Apple is 3rd and niche designs  Intel is 4rd with fabs in the US and assembly in US and Israel.  Russia has fabs using the 130nm and 90 nm  Global foundries was allowed to sell them 10 years ago.  Anything newer , Russia is 100% dependent on buying from the west or PRC..  Japan's Riken has 14 nm which puts them 5th behind Intel. IBM  is perfectly capable of making all mother boards  and other items needed by US. MIcron makes the memory.  The electronics for your car and consumer goods are 28nm or larger. and can be bought generically.   PRC supercomputer chips are 65 nm.

Third, sanctions can be tightened through the International Maritime Organziation by closing the BlackSea, Baltic Sea, and the Sea of Japan. That leaves Russia with Murmansk and  overland routes through Iran and China PRC.  If Iran wants to resume oil sales  that door is closed.

Go to Johannesburg and Pretoria to see the results.

Edited March 10, 2022 by nsdp
forgot Murmansk

[nsdp + 449]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:28 PM, Starschy said:

Fact is that Russia gaining Momentum. Not in the Nord instead of the more important South part.

The Russian attack shows the Troops in the Nord and North east part the central Point is above Dnjepro. This lead to a weakness in the South.

 

At this time Ukraine lost 3 Ports Mariupol, Berdiansk, Kherson. Some Ports in Mykolaijev, and those 3 large ones are in great danger up to the nex 14 days. Illyschewsk, Yuzhny and Odessa. The last 3 are the largest one.

All Ports from Dnjeper River from Kherson upwards can no longer sent their Ships to the Black Sea. There are more or less only small maintenance Jobs for those Ports and Boat Companies.

The Ukraine Ports handle 150 Million Tonnes of Cargo.  We're discussing 60% of all Exports and 50% of all Imports. For the Summer no more Grain Exports by Ukraine only by Russian Ports or Russian handled Ukraine Ports. The same with Ukraine Coals and Sunflower Oil.

The next thing which may be under Russian controll is the Oil/Gas Pipeline coming from Dnjepro to Romania / Bulgaria. That one may be under Russian control inside Ukraine in the next 2-3 days.

Next step is the attack to Dnjepro to Center of the Ukraine Industrie. Multiple Power Stations.

 

Let me know what you are smoking. I have glaucoma and need stronger weed.

[nsdp + 449]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:28 PM, Starschy said:

Fact is that Russia gaining Momentum. Not in the Nord instead of the more important South part.

The Russian attack shows the Troops in the Nord and North east part the central Point is above Dnjepro. This lead to a weakness in the South.

 

At this time Ukraine lost 3 Ports Mariupol, Berdiansk, Kherson. Some Ports in Mykolaijev, and those 3 large ones are in great danger up to the nex 14 days. Illyschewsk, Yuzhny and Odessa. The last 3 are the largest one.

All Ports from Dnjeper River from Kherson upwards can no longer sent their Ships to the Black Sea. There are more or less only small maintenance Jobs for those Ports and Boat Companies.

The Ukraine Ports handle 150 Million Tonnes of Cargo.  We're discussing 60% of all Exports and 50% of all Imports. For the Summer no more Grain Exports by Ukraine only by Russian Ports or Russian handled Ukraine Ports. The same with Ukraine Coals and Sunflower Oil.

The next thing which may be under Russian controll is the Oil/Gas Pipeline coming from Dnjepro to Romania / Bulgaria. That one may be under Russian control inside Ukraine in the next 2-3 days.

Next step is the attack to Dnjepro to Center of the Ukraine Industrie. Multiple Power Stations.

 

All those ports are not much good if the Dardanelles are closed.   How much is Put+Put going to pay Turkey for the economic damage.

Those ports aren't going to do much good if Put=Put has to give back Donbass,Crimea etc. Put an end to the ethnic issues the way it was done for the Germans and Japanese at the  end of WWII.  We won't be as obtuse as the Soviet  Union who sent 1 million Japanese in Manchuria to the gulags. The Sudenten and Silesian  Germans were loaded up in Army trucks and sent to Munich and Frankfort and put out.  The Japanese in Southern  Manchuria, Korea, Marianas, Sakhlin and Taiwan were loaded on ships and moved to Japan.   Crimea and Donbass belong to the Kazars historically; Turkey has the next best claim.  So Russians living there have a weaker claim than anybody else.  They came in after the Kulak purge in the 1920's.

[nsdp + 449]

On 3/8/2022 at 8:19 PM, surrept33 said:

That's prehistory. Completely different world after Russia invaded Ukraine.

Strange bedfellows, but it looks like the US + EU + Iran + Venezuela are on one side, Russia + Saudi + UAE are another. So far at least.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/08/world/americas/venezuela-american-prisoner-release.html

 

Venezuela Releases Imprisoned Americans After Talks With U.S.

Venezuela’s authoritarian government on Tuesday released at least two imprisoned Americans, an American official and Venezuelan human rights defenders said, a potential turning point in the Biden administration’s relationship with Russia’s staunchest ally in the Western Hemisphere.

 

The release followed a rare trip by a high-level U.S. delegation to Venezuela over the weekend to meet with President Nicolás Maduro, part of a broader Biden administration agenda in autocratic countries that may be rethinking their ties with President Vladimir V. Putin in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The talks with Venezuela, which has enormous proven oil reserves, assumed new urgency after President Biden announced Tuesday that the United States would ban Russian oil and gas imports because of the invasion. That move is expected to further tighten the availability of crude oil on the global market, and could raise gas prices at a moment when inflation has climbed at its fastest pace in 40 years.

The released men are Gustavo Cárdenas, an executive at the American branch of Venezuela’s state oil company who was detained in 2017, and Jorge Alberto Fernández, according to a U.S. official and an American businessman who was briefed on the situation. Mr. Fernández, a Cuban American, was a tourist who was accused of terrorism for bringing a drone into Venezuela in February 2021, according to his lawyer.

At least eight other U.S. nationals remain jailed in Caracas on charges ranging from embezzlement to terrorism.

The purpose of the American officials’ visit to Venezuela was to discuss “energy security” and the status of imprisoned Americans, the White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a news conference.

Mr. Maduro said he received the American delegation at the presidential palace and called the meeting “respectful, cordial, very diplomatic.” The talks, he said, would continue. He also said he would restart talks with the country’s opposition.

The Venezuelan government wants to resume oil sales to the United States to take advantage of high oil prices and to replace the revenues from trade channels it built through the Russian financial system that have been frozen by Western nations to punish Russian aggression against Ukraine, according to officials and oil businessmen in the country.

Selling directly to the United States would also allow Mr. Maduro to reap full profits from the highest oil prices in more than a decade, instead of selling the crude at deep discount to a network of middlemen used to bypass the U.S. ban, they said.

Before that ban, Venezuela exported most of its oil to the United States, whose Gulf refineries were built to process the country’s heavy crude.

Mr. Fernandez is no tourist.  He worked as a CIA Agent in Central America and Mexico from the early 1980's to when the Enrique Camerana murder case blew up in 1985.  Fernandez is tied to  former Mexican  President Luis Echeveria who owned the house where  Camerena was tortured and killed and allegedly present at some point. . I  got mixed up in that mess because some fool at the Federal Public Defender's Office thought I was fluent in Spanish because I studied two semesters at La  Esquela de Minas in QUERETERO and while at Std. Oil (Ind) was part of the negotiating team with President Carlos Perez's regime.  In 1978 Venezuela nationalized American oil assets.  He agreed  to compensate Amoco if Amoco compensated him. Then he did it again in 1993 after he was reelected president. Accion Democratico(now Popular Will) which was Trump's pet was Perez's party.  I suspect that AD over the years from 1953-1999 stole more money than Chaves and Maduro have simply because they had 46 years compared to 22 years.  they are all crooks.   Mexico has red Interpol warrants for Mr. Fernandez. He is safer in a Venezuelan jail than a Mexican jail.
 

 

 

 

Edited March 11, 2022 by nsdp
fix syntax

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

..

Edited March 11, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

16 hours ago, nsdp said:

All those ports are not much good if the Dardanelles are closed.   How much is Put+Put going to pay Turkey for the economic damage.

Those ports aren't going to do much good if Put=Put has to give back Donbass,Crimea etc. Put an end to the ethnic issues the way it was done for the Germans and Japanese at the  end of WWII.  We won't be as obtuse as the Soviet  Union who sent 1 million Japanese in Manchuria to the gulags. The Sudenten and Silesian  Germans were loaded up in Army trucks and sent to Munich and Frankfort and put out.  The Japanese in Southern  Manchuria, Korea, Marianas, Sakhlin and Taiwan were loaded on ships and moved to Japan.   Crimea and Donbass belong to the Kazars historically; Turkey has the next best claim.  So Russians living there have a weaker claim than anybody else.  They came in after the Kulak purge in the 1920's.

Russians have a better claim than Turkey. The oldest one is Greece, followed by Italy (Genoa) Turkey is not closing the Straits, don't get your hopes up. Note no sanctions from Turkey so far.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

A very balanced interview (on onet.pl) with a Polish former footballer playing in Russia and Ukraine for many years called Mariusz Lewandowski

“While playing in Szachtar, and later in Sevastopol, I saw that the people who live there feel Ukrainian, but they identify with Russia much more than they identify with the West.

This country has long been divided, people from different regions do not like each other.

Lviv and Kyiv want to get as close to Europe as possible, but the people of Donbas did not want to integrate with it, they wanted to live the same life as in previous years.

Crimea, Kharkiv, Mariupol, Zaporizhia - that was the Russian part of Ukraine.

Donetsk, Luhansk and Mariupol counties are like our Upper Silesia.

A very large part of the country's income comes from these areas. People living there often said that they work all over Ukraine, and they get little of it, because it is parceled out for the whole country. I know a married couple that broke up precisely for political reasons - my wife left for Spain because she followed the Ukrainians, my husband stayed in Donetsk because he identifies with the Russians ”.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Western Ukrainian nationalism is not great idea but it is an element of hatred towards Russia, Poland and other nations.

I know it from people from Ukraine working in Poland. I talk to them that those who live in eastern Ukraine  do not want to talk to those from western Ukraine and vice versa. 

My brother  was recently in Odessa last year and he had the same observations.

They all spoke Russian there not Ukrainian. They even spoke rubles for money not hryvna. Its Ukraine but ..

[Jay McKinsey + 1,489]

10 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Western Ukrainian nationalism is not great idea but it is an element of hatred towards Russia, Poland and other nations.

I know it from people from Ukraine working in Poland. I talk to them that those who live in eastern Ukraine  do not want to talk to those from western Ukraine and vice versa. 

My brother  was recently in Odessa last year and he had the same observations.

They all spoke Russian there not Ukrainian. They even spoke rubles for money not hryvna. Its Ukraine but ..

Russia has a very open immigration policy. No one is stopping them from moving.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

he Second Donbas War on February 24, 2022 has become a geopolitical fact that cannot be ignored indifferently. From a normative point of view, there is no doubt who is the aggressor and who is the victim of the violation of territorial integrity. The poker stakes Russia has raised is extremely high, and we have no idea how determined the leadership in the Kremlin is and how far it is ready to go to achieve its strategic goals. This is the logic of an empire, known since ancient times, although officially denied by the US or the EU. However, this does not change the nature of everything, although it is worth remembering that they do not necessarily think like us, and our rationalism does not have to be similarly understood. The key to understanding these Others is to verify the facts and learn how to interpret them,

Key questions

From the beginning of the war, the author has been troubled by two key problems:

1. Why did the Russians attack Ukraine (just?) Right now?
2. What are Russia's actual war goals against Ukraine?

Unfortunately, these are currently open rhetorical questions, and we are doomed - on the basis of partial information and information loops - to hypotheses, partial conclusions and historical analogies. The Russo-Ukrainian war is part of the overall picture of the reconfiguration of the world order since Pax Americana is being questioned by an increasing number of international entities, including China. Taking advantage of this weakening and dysfunction of the West, Russia is also trying to win its "piece of the cake".

It can be assumed that it is ultimately the construction of the Eurasian Union in the post-Soviet area and the unification of the Russophonic population within the Federation itself. In 2020-2022, it managed to strengthen its influence in Belarus (after the defeat of the revolution on August 9), in the Caucasus (Second Karabakh War) and Central Asia (the fall of the 'January Uprising' in Kazakhstan) at a relatively low cost. From this point of view, Ukraine remains an important point of reference, where the further fate of the neo-imperium will be decided. In the event of a military defeat, the former will share the fate of the First Czechoslovak Republic, and the next targets will be Moldova, Georgia and Azerbaijan. In turn, an alternative to Russia's failures may be the palace coup or even the popular revolution that took place on the basis of the war of 1904-1905.

Ideas for Ukraine

It must be made clear that after the victory of the Euromaidan, the leadership in the Kremlin does not consume Ukraine. And it is not about neutralization or the so-called denazification, but with specific historical analogies. "If Ukraine, even independent ," Konstantin Zatulin wrote in 2005, " will not have special allied relations with Russia, its newly minted statehood will rest on the anti-Russian foundation and transform it into a second Poland - that is, a cultural and historical project alien to Russia (...), which we will have to deal with. Otherwise, he will take care of us ” [1] .

It is in the quoted article that the notion of Novorossiya is even mentioned, while in the Russian public space there are three historiosophical and (geo) political myths in the Russian public space: 1) the concept of dividing Ukraine into two (Ukrainian and Russian), 2) the idea of the Third Rome ( of the triune Russian Orthodox people, understood as superetnos) and 3) Ukraine and the Ukrainians have always been the co-hosts ("younger brothers") of the Russian and Soviet empires. It is not up to the author to decide whether the said "truths" are true or falsified, but it is worth noting their existence, as it influences the Russian way of thinking about contemporary politics. And Russia thinks primarily in terms of Realpolitik , Great Spaces and classical geopolitics. Whether we like it or not!

Winter wars - analogies and differences

"When it comes to the motives of the West ," Sergey Karaganov recalled in 2006, " they are not all clear, but some are easy to guess." It is a desire to link the collapsing and unstable Ukraine more closely to the Western system. The goal is to create one more - apart from Poland - pro-American political bridgehead in Europe. The more so because the Polish bridgehead is functioning badly. Warsaw found itself almost isolated in Greater Europe. On the other hand, traditionalists in Warsaw itself dream of regaining the domination over Ukraine, which they lost several centuries ago " [2]. Apart from the controversy of the above-mentioned provision, from almost the beginning of the 21st century, Russia did not hide its fears about Ukraine - behind them stands the "Polish complex", and more broadly, the myth of the First Republic, understood as an alternative civilization model. In the opinion of the mentioned author, Kyiv therefore has a fairly simple alternative: 1) "fraternal" partnership with Russia, or 2) in the long run, the fate of a dysfunctional state torn by "bloodshed" and the divided nation syndrome.

This way of thinking has not changed, as evidenced by the Second Winter War. The author of this article deliberately used the above-mentioned phrase, because the historical analogies to the Finnish-Soviet conflict of 1939-1940 are obvious. This is also a temptation to consider further: just like in the case of Finland, the development of the military situation on the front shows that the implementation of the Russian attack plan in relation to the original strategic and political assumptions ended in a complete failure. The mirage of one's own power was overestimated, the determination and scale of the general armed resistance and the degree of modernization of the Ukrainian armed forces were underestimated, and the reaction of the US and the EU was underestimated.

So the same mistakes were made as in 1939. The original Blitzkrieg, is slowly becoming a war of nerves for exhaustion and destruction - where Ukrainians have a clear propaganda advantage, prevail in cyberspace and have greater situational awareness on the real battlefield. The difference between the winter wars of 1939-1940 and of 2022, however, is that the defender cannot count on military assistance from NATO. The "red lines" have been clearly outlined - and the first attempts to bring the pact into the war have so far been unsuccessful: 1) information about the Polish permission to land and arm and supply Ukrainian aircraft has been denied, and 2) a moratorium on the creation of a closed air zone over part of Ukraine was rejected, despite the fact that some politicians demanded limited military intervention.

Sequence with no exit

The armed resistance of Ukraine arouses sincere admiration and recognition in the US and EU countries. The West gives her generous humanitarian and military aid. In the case of continued effective resistance of the regular army, it can even be predicted that heavy equipment will become the subject of supplies: first post-Soviet planes, then tanks, armored vehicles and artillery sets may be next in line.

The message from NATO is quite clear: there will be no military intervention, but Russia has to pay the "right" price for its aggression against "pro-Western" Ukraine. Exactly as was the case with Finland. Thus, the Ukrainians may win battles, take strategic initiative on the front, but in the end they seem to be doomed to a "lost peace" anyway. Why? Well, the Russian invasion of February 22, 2022 is a "point of no return" for the Kremlin and President Vladimir Putin himself.

In the autumn, six months earlier, the Russian diplomacy presented a detailed concept of reconstructing the European collective security order, taking into account the project of "finlandising" Ukraine. It was completely unrealistic, although it should provoke a certain diplomatic contraction on the part of the West, which could then play for the time, or apply a political strategy: do ut des. No one was expecting quick results, but the Kremlin appears to have raised deliberately despite bluffing. However, when the "ultimatum" was rejected, Russia was driven into a "corner" for the first time and was not allowed to go out facedown, even by simulating talks. She therefore resorted to the argument of force, “simulating” preparations for aggression against Ukraine in order to force specific political concessions from the West and the state authorities in Kiev. When this also turned out to be a "blank" argument, the real war began. As mentioned, it is part of a larger whole, an element of a global game.

Novorossiya, people's republics, a federation?

The Russian Federation, pressed to the "wall", attacked Ukraine and, despite its involvement in the war of destruction, is not willing to end it soon. This decision was also not taken on the spur of the moment, but after a carefully balanced cool calculation, simulation of potential threats and international responses.

The disclosed premises show that President Vladimir Putin is quite determined to win this war unquestionably and ruthlessly, because the stakes are already too high. In the opinion of the author of the article, the Russians are already well aware of the threat of implementing the "Afghan scenario", so they have no choice but to undertake further military actions aimed at reaching the Dnieper line, conquering Odessa and penetrating the land corridor to Transnistria and the capture of Kiev.

All this is done under the slogans of the liberation of the Russophones from the rule of the "Nazi regime". The acquisition of Odessa and Kharkiv, and thus the capture of the Kharkiv-Donetsk-Odessa triangle, brings to mind the Novorossiya phantasm of 2014-2015. The unsuccessful attempt to establish the Kherson People's Republic suggests the possibility of creating similar "political organisms" within the administrative boundaries of the oblasts located on the left bank of the Dnieper. Under the slogan of "national self-determination" from the said "people's republics" can therefore be called either "Novorossiya 2.0" or what has already been called the Federative Republic of Ukraine.

Pure Realpolitik

In the current geopolitical configuration, Russia will not risk being directly incorporated into the "matrix", as was the case with Crimea in 2014, due to the excessive costs of a long-term confrontation with the West. The USA and the EU, especially France and Germany, in the face of the accomplished facts and the vision of cessation of hostilities, will tacitly express their lack of interest, although they will officially deny territorial changes. This will be the price for maintaining the independence of a truncated and neutral Ukrainian state. If the "regime" of President Volodymyr Zelensky did not want to accept this fact and sign the "appropriate" ceasefire, the team headed by Vytor Yanukovych and Mykola Azarov is always in reserve , a local variation of the PKWN.

This is how the second partition of Ukraine will take place! Therefore - in the opinion of the author of this article - in the event of the defeat of the Ukrainian regular armed forces by Russia, one must seriously reckon with the division of Ukraine into two states: a Ukrainian-language buffer and a Russophonic para-state entity with the capital in Kharkiv (?), Politically and militarily connected with Moscow, just like Transnistria, North Ossetia or Abkhazia. Only that the scale of this "project" would be incomparably greater.

From the Kremlin's perspective, the long-term geostrategic benefits seem to outweigh the disadvantages of the present moment. After all, the "weakening" Euro-Atlantic world needs Russia anyway as part of the Greater West concept to tame China's growing power. This one also has its reasons to be afraid of the growing power of the Middle Kingdom, although this is not displayed at present. This is the "back door" of the current - momentary, as Moscow and some Western capitals presume - of the post-strategic confrontation with Ukraine in the background. Pure Realpolitik .

Dr. Robert Potocki

[1] Konstantin Zatulin, Fight for Ukraine: what next? , "Russia in Global Politics," May 2005, p. 69.

[2] Sergey Karaganov, Looking for a way to deal with instability , "Russia in Global Politics", December 2006, pp. 119-120.

https://myslpolska.info/2022/03/08/potocki-rosyjsko-ukrainski-protokol-rozbieznosci/?fbclid=IwAR3Up5PTljNNHmqWKJr3UoqlFNnaEFJkvPepgXxaaPs70qDs3OaDeXK3p4Q

[Tomasz + 1,608]

During the eight years of war, two scenarios were most convenient for Russia: The "Croatian scenario", that is, the seizure of (already) rebellious republics by force.

Moscow repeatedly tried to push through the first variant in the first years of the conflict. There were many obstacles. The mood in Donbas itself was far from a desire to return to Ukraine, most of the so-called The distraction (that is, the mass movement, volunteers) was so militant that it was necessary to start imprisoning commanders who not only refused to sit still, but also sabotaged the orders to "not respond with fire". This had a very negative impact on the morale of the army and the level of the commanding staff (many veterans went civil, and the sent officers-tourists were often of poor quality).

 
Similar moods of the 'Russian spring' in Russia itself, which forced the Kremlin to support the uprising, were systematically silenced with information about the Minsk agreements. I have met journalists from Russia who were firmly convinced that the people of Donbass very, very much want to return to Ukraine in accordance with these agreements. And so for several years the average eater of Russian bread heard about Minsk and the flourishing republics. Even now we hear enough opinions that the Donbass is to blame for itself and why the inhabitants of Saratov or Irkutsk should suffer the consequences of not their choice.

The economic situation in Donbass should also be mentioned, and this has been getting worse over the years. Until recently, a city bustling with life, developing and having beautiful prospects, suddenly became a ghost. A terrible place where it is hard to live, and to think about some kind of entrepreneurship is almost impossible. In addition, both republics behaved almost to the very end not as fraternal, twin states, but as neighbors that were not very fond of each other. It can only be recalled that the Donetsk special forces assisted in the "voluntary abdication" of the president of the Luhansk Republic.

The idea of Novorossiya, the confederation of Russian oblasts of Ukraine, quickly collapsed. Donbass had nothing to offer, and attempts to promote such a promotion, such as free treatment for the inhabitants of the "other side", only outraged those who lived in Donetsk or Makiivka.

The late president of the DPR, Alexander Zakharchenko, who was constantly showing Moscow his independence to such an extent that, probably at the urging of Prilepin, one day proclaimed the creation of Malorossia, was not among the supporters of reintegration. According to his intentions, it was to be a federal state covering the territory of Ukraine with him as president. The Ukrainians themselves were to be called Malorossians. The fantastic and unrealistic declaration was to be signed by perhaps 16 "influential Ukrainian local government officials" and the parliament of the LPR. It is not known who these activists were, because the document was anonymous, while the Lugansk authorities announced almost immediately that they did not know anything about it.

 
Zakharchenko was killed in the attack, and Denis Puszylin was appointed his successor. Ie. he won in what for some reason was called elections. Russia gained full control of Donbass, including its army.

However, the biggest problem in the operation for pushing Donbas into the arms of Ukraine was the position of itself. And it was not that Kyiv did not implement the Minsk agreements, because no one did. The decisions signed in the Belarusian capital were in fact beneficial only to Moscow, and absolutely not to Donbass or Ukraine. Not so long ago, Lukashenko during an interview told about how Putin proposed to Poroshenko to get along somehow and that he would take away his inconvenient "younger brothers". Poroshenko, however, had no such plans. During the eight years of the war, Kyiv did not try to convince the inhabitants of the republics to their arguments, nor did it suffer much because of the current state of affairs. On the contrary - all the parties involved fueled the hostilities from time to time (to a small and local extent, so that they would not end, but also turn into something bigger.

From the moment of the Russian invasion / intervention (he called it - we are dealing with a new stage of the war that has been going on since 2014), rumors have been whispering somewhere that Russia has only just overtaken the Ukrainian attack. Some evidence has even been shown recently. The main question: what for?

If Ukraine decided to launch a full offensive (because it would not have succeeded in pieces, definitely not), it would necessarily have to conduct the war in urban conditions - it would not be possible to conquer Donbas without capturing Donetsk, Luhansk, Gorlovka, etc. Such a war would mean a huge number of victims civilians, which would be constantly shown by Russian television. The Kremlin would have been given a free hand in its actions and it would have been completely different than it is now. Russia could legitimately say that it protects civilians from aggression and "genocide", it could enter Ukraine and do what it is doing now, and would most likely be greeted with these unfortunate flowers. It was very easy to present the Kiev authorities as bloodthirsty madmen (to present for the inhabitants of Ukraine and Russia). Of course, Kyiv was well aware of this, and that is why it did not undertake such actions, as they would undoubtedly be of benefit to Moscow.

 
Meanwhile, what did we get? Putin organizes a theater in the form of a Security Council meeting, after which he delivers a major speech in which he acknowledges the statehood of Donbas. In Moscow, the leaders of the republics materialize and sign trade and military agreements. Donbas is euphoric, believing that now the Russian army will enter the Donbass, the shelling will end (which was troublesome near the front, but did not affect the lives of average people to a large extent) and Ukraine would be scared and negotiated - now with Putin.

Meanwhile, after perhaps two days, the message of Pushilin (recorded a few days earlier) appears, in which he exclaims (reading, by the way) that the situation is hopeless, Ukraine is bombing the cities, it is about to start plundering and murdering, the population must be quickly evacuated. In cities, sirens, panic, panic and even more panic. And what was happening at the front when Puszylin was recording his speech? Nothing special. Minor local fire exchange. On the day the speech was made public? Nothing fancy, another slight tightening, of which there have already been dozens.

Russia supports the evacuation, although for 8 years no one came up with the idea of taking civilians (even by force) from the frontier areas. In such Zajcewo or Aleksandrówka, the trenches literally run through gardens, right next to inhabited houses. But now everyone has to evacuate - immediately! After only 2-3 days, the entire operation was canceled, although once the situation after the Russian invasion became much worse.

For 8 years, the Donbas authorities have promised that there will be no compulsory conscription. In fact, no major training in territorial defense was conducted, no shelters were taken care of, and the inhabitants were not informed of anything they should know about living in the country on the front. Suddenly, along with the evacuation, the borders for men are closed and they are taken to the army en masse. At the same time, promising that they would serve in the rear and that no one would go to any front. Well, now in Ukrainian captivity there are those who have been promised something by the people's authorities. And it is good, if at least in captivity and not covered with earth under the bushes.

 
Russia attacked Ukraine suddenly and, it seems, unexpectedly for itself. Donbass was unprepared for such actions. Judging by the testimony of the Russian prisoners of war, they themselves found out about the war when they were crossing the borders. However, it was definitely not an attack in defense of Donbas and its people. The Kremlin treats them as an object and does not give a damn about their fate. Some kind of trade agreement with Russia, which would give the republics a chance that the republics would at least a little breathe from the benefits of the "people's-party model of economy" was signed just before the start of the military operation. The Kremlin's early support can be summed up in one sentence: take what's left, so you don't die too quickly.

Somewhere, the phrase that Russia fights for Donbas is still echoing, and it is not. Donbass is just a pretext and it is marginal, even accidental, side-by-side. Even the idea of integrating Donbass with Russia has disappeared somewhere, on the contrary - one can get the impression that if Malorossia was to be the sovereign principality of Zakharchenko, the new enlarged Donbass will be a private company of Pushlin (and its company). Only a new narrative coming from Russia may appear soon, a narrative that puts the republics in the first place - because there will be nothing else for the Kremlin.

If it does not, or rather does not, completely subjugate Ukraine, or create new ghost states from its territory, then recognition of Donbas and Crimea (plus, for example, Russian as a second language in Ukraine, etc.) with face. And then the narrative will take on the smoothness that is what we meant

David Hudziec

Donetsk

https://myslpolska.info/2022/03/11/niechciany-donbas/

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

On 3/8/2022 at 5:01 PM, ronwagn said:

We have the light oil to blend, but if we can get it from a stable Venezuela that is nearby it is easier to deliver. We need a stable South America and not let China get control of things there. 

I would think that the best use might be asphalt or burning it and producing electricity. Maybe natural gas is cheaper and it is cleaner. What do you think?

There's new solvent extraction technology in the market. Let's see where that goes. 

[nsdp + 449]

On 3/9/2022 at 4:13 PM, Tomasz said:

Russia fights by around 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

For the first week, she used only about 50-60,000.

The equipment used in this operation is rather quite old - the T-72B and BWP-2 are at least 30-35 years old.

At the same time, Russia is building humanitarian corridors.

In my opinion, the strategic goals are 2- to close Ukraine's path to NATO definitively without annexing further territories. Two - triggering a wave of several million emigrants to the European Union as a means of putting pressure on the Union in order to lift sanctions.

By Russian standards, they are not fighting too brutally - according to UN data, about 500 civilians have died so far. By comparison, 500,000 civilians died in Syria.

In my opinion, sooner or later the West will have to accept the NATO border on the Bug. This corresponds to the traditional border of the Russian sphere of influence.

By satellite body count confirmed by funeral services,  Russia has lost as many KIA in two weeks (5000+/-) as they lost in the first 3 years of Afghanistan. Moscow admits Russia  498 of its soldiers killed, 1,597 wounded in Ukraine . Using the low ball numbers that is 12,500/year or 1 out 12 killed and 40,000 plus wounded. 52,000 casualties per year  That is 1 out of 3 soldiers deployed minimum on an annual basis.  Sounds like the Russo-Finish War 1939-40.  No army has ever survived that rate of casualties when 1/2 the troops are conscrripts.  US's worst year in Vietnam was only 1 out ten KIA or wounded/missing.  I see an exponential increase in desertions coming.

[KeyboardWarrior + 527]

2 hours ago, nsdp said:

ussia fights by around 150,000 soldiers in Ukraine.

For the first week, she used only about 50-60,000.

The equipment used in this operation is rather quite old - the T-72B and BWP-2 are at least 30-35 years old.

At the same time, Russia is building humanitarian corridors.

In my opinion, the strategic goals are 2- to close Ukraine's path to NATO definitively without annexing further territories. Two - triggering a wave of several million emigrants to the European Union as a means of putting pressure on the Union in order to lift sanctions.

By Russian standards, they are not fighting too brutally - according to UN data, about 500 civilians have died so far. By comparison, 500,000 civilians died in Syria.

In my opinion, sooner or later the West will have to accept the NATO border on the Bug. This corresponds to the traditional border of the Russian sphere of influence.

does this clown really think that Russia's display is going to remove the sanctions? 

[Boat + 1,315]

On 3/8/2022 at 10:12 PM, kshithij Sharma said:

Venezuela is willing to trade with USA but that does not mean it is willing to side with USA in security matters. Same goes with Iran. Trade and security are very different aspects. Venezuela and Iran know not to trust USA due to repeated cycles of sanctions and waivers. They have also seen how stable Russia & China are in terms of trade relations as well as security cooperation. The biggest question in the minds of Iranians and Venezuelans will be about when USA will reimpose sanctions or attempt another insurrection. Iran just signed a long term contract with China for oil sales and will continue selling oil even after lifting of sanctions. Same will be the case with Venezuela. Releasing a few prisoners mean nothing as it is just a small gesture. Overthinking about it is futile

So Iraq plans to pump. We may have to wait a couple months to see how this shakes out country by country. Then see the reactions and maybe you’ll see more changes in policy. Politics is a moving reality. Don’t forget those US frackers, I predict they keep growing slow and steady. They fight manpower and various supply chain issues but there is money to be made and they will chase it.

[kshithij Sharma + 78]

7 hours ago, Boat said:

So Iraq plans to pump. We may have to wait a couple months to see how this shakes out country by country. Then see the reactions and maybe you’ll see more changes in policy. Politics is a moving reality. Don’t forget those US frackers, I predict they keep growing slow and steady. They fight manpower and various supply chain issues but there is money to be made and they will chase it.

Iraq has always been telling about its grand plans to pump huge amount of oil which never happened. Iraq won't be pumping anything more in near term. Libya is already having one faction controlled by Russia which will sabotage oil production to favour Russia. Iran is already in Russia's camp due to Russia and China helping it tide over sanctions. Iran has paused the JCPOA negotiations to help Russia. Iran also recently fired missiles at USA consulate area as warning: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/multiple-rockets-fall-erbil-northern-iraq-state-media-2022-03-12/

USA frackers can increase oil production but that will deplete USA reserves. USA already is running low on reserves with an estimated 55GBL left and annual extraction of 4.6GBL (12.6Mbd). If USA increases oil production by 4-5Mbd, its reserves will deplete much sooner and will amount to digging its own grave. USA intends to make others produce more oil while itself conserving its oil for future. Unfortunately, very few countries seem to be willing to let themselves become pawns for USA's selfish interests. Only Brazil, Norway are willing to pump more oil as of now and their production capacity is limited to accommodate only minor increase.

[Boat + 1,315]

7 minutes ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Iraq has always been telling about its grand plans to pump huge amount of oil which never happened. Iraq won't be pumping anything more in near term. Libya is already having one faction controlled by Russia which will sabotage oil production to favour Russia. Iran is already in Russia's camp due to Russia and China helping it tide over sanctions. Iran has paused the JCPOA negotiations to help Russia. Iran also recently fired missiles at USA consulate area as warning: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/multiple-rockets-fall-erbil-northern-iraq-state-media-2022-03-12/

USA frackers can increase oil production but that will deplete USA reserves. USA already is running low on reserves with an estimated 55GBL left and annual extraction of 4.6GBL (12.6Mbd). If USA increases oil production by 4-5Mbd, its reserves will deplete much sooner and will amount to digging its own grave. USA intends to make others produce more oil while itself conserving its oil for future. Unfortunately, very few countries seem to be willing to let themselves become pawns for USA's selfish interests. Only Brazil, Norway are willing to pump more oil as of now and their production capacity is limited to accommodate only minor increase.

We pump what we consume. You make that political. The reason we don’t export is there hasn't been enough money in it after shipping costs. Todays prices are temporary but I bet those Texas frackers will take some of Putins market share. See how that narrative was different? Don’t forget in just a few years oil will start oil dropping demand at a pretty good clip due to electric cars. Your recovery is going to be difficult. 
just a few years ago Iraq was paying over $20 per barrel for security. I think that’s better now but still very high compared to the US for example. By working inside an OPEC system their production gains have been slower also. We’ll see if they use this opportunity to jump on Putins market share. Getting the theme here?

Edited March 14, 2022 by Boat

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,129]

6 hours ago, kshithij Sharma said:

Iraq has always been telling a

USA frackers can increase oil production but that will deplete USA reserves. USA already is running low on reserves with an estimated 55GBL left and annual extraction of 4.6GBL (12.6Mbd). If USA increases oil production by 4-5Mbd, its reserves will deplete

So, you are saying USA's reserves have increased.  Good to know.  Its up to 55 GBL.   Give you a hint, for the last 50 years the USA's reserves were at 30GBL... now they are 55GBL.... I suppose they will stay there for the next 50 years as well... hrmmm.   "Reserves" mean nothing unless an international oil company is pumping from a foreign nations reserves where their headquarters is not located.  Even then, this "reserves" hold very little bearing to reality.

For instance the Natural Gas reserves of Iran/Qatar/Turkmenistan/Russia/USA are so vast, no one knows how big they actually are other than, pure guesses at best and laughable at worst.  Same goes for USA's/Russia/China's/Australian coal reserves.  So vast no one knows how big they are.  There are gigantic coal reserves under ~1/10 of the USA's land area as an example, yet almost none of it has ever had a core drill through it to even know how much is there.  Only reason anyone knows it is there is drilling for oil/gas and coal comes up the bore hole. Lets not even get started with how much NG is on the north slope of the arctic all before we even discuss pretty much unexplored Africa or Interior of Brazil, Canada/Russia.