"The Gasoline Car Is a Car With a Future"

...said OMV's CEO in an interview with CNBC. The question is how long is this future going to last? What's your answer?

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46 minutes ago, Marina Schwarz said:

...said OMV's CEO in an interview with CNBC. The question is how long is this future going to last? What's your answer?

 Two years !

 

Buying a gasoline car will soon be as hype as buying a horse carriage in 1920.

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The gasoline engine automobile has a long future. I suggest the reason is that there are a lot of them, and the infrastructure is out there to support them.  Further, and of considerable importance, the consumers who buy them are comfortable with the level of technology and like them.   If there is a sufficient number of buyers out there to pay for the product, then the product will be manufactured.  That is inexorable.  And there is this segment out there that likes the feel of the mechanical clutch and likes the sound(s) of the gasoline engine.

You get these guys who like the big American V-8 and then you have the snobs who really like the smooth V-12.  Those guys do not want a substitute good, such as a battery-operated car to get from A to B.  Indeed, the actual travelling in the car is an end to itself.  There are all these car fan groups and rally meets that the aficionados are part of; considering the amounts fo money involved, does anyone seriously think that just goes poof? 

You will see fall-off on an inter-generational level,  Conversely, take a look at these guys that spend thousands of hours restoring old WWII Jeeps and half-tracks before you even begin to look at Jay Leno's personal garage, complete with a working and plated, street-legal Stanley Steamer, and you realize that the Deusenbergs and Cords and Packards of America are going to be operational for a very long time to come. Will the bland and mundane auto disappear for the masses?  Only if the masses are impoverished and don't have any money for that in the future. 

If societies evolve into two-class structures as you had in say 1310, with a small rich and aristocratic class of landowners and everybody else a serf, then yes, the automobile and everything else will vanish.  The top 1% will keep whatever they choose.  But as long as the bottom 90% still have some disposable income, there will be gasoline autos for them. That historical pull is today far too strong.  

And that is before you get to the Outboard Motor, that darling of the fishing and water-skiing set!

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1 hour ago, Jan van Eck said:

The gasoline engine automobile has a long future. 

Yes it does. We are no where near the end of ICE no matter what Tesla investors would like to believe. They are dreaming if they think they will quickly upend the gasoline-driven automobile market. Wanting something to be so doesn't make it so.

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5 hours ago, Guillaume Albasini said:

 Two years !

 

Buying a gasoline car will soon be as hype as buying a horse carriage in 1920.

I think it will more a case of societal change, developing and new tech chipping away at gasoline consumption  or at least constraining it. I don't see any mass sudden drop out. Ironically some of these technologies* will likely lengthen the use of gasoline as the improved fuel economy will inprove their attractiveness to consumers compared to EV's. 

  • Stop / start tech on petrol cars generally*
  • Hybrids*
  • High Compression petrol engines (Mazda)*
  • Laser spark ignition*
  • Home working
  • Promotion of cycling (at least in Europe)
  • Electrification of rail
  • Plug in EV's*
  • EV's

 

We are a one car household. We currently have a Hybrid. When we replace it in 3 years time I suspect we will look at Plug in Hybrids. I like the look of the Hyundai Ioniq. 25K (Sterling) with a 9 kwh battery which will cover most of my wifes daily commute. 

 

 

 

 

 

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For the 6 billion persons that never had a car and their countries can't have them because either they don't have the charging infrastructure, or the electricity generation capacity it is. An LPG cylinder is portable power tank that you can use for cooking, moving your car, heating your home, and so on.

Supposing that Africa will consume as much oil per capita as italy by 2100 that's 133 million barrels per day,

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(edited)

This future will last around 7 years for new automobiles and 20 years for existing ones. Now that there is a viable alternative to the gasoline powered engine all oil importing countries will push for the ban of ICE cars. Even if they don't push for it it doesn't matter actually, because electric cars are superior and will be cheaper soon.

Edited by JunoTen

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12 hours ago, Sebastian Meana said:

For the 6 billion persons that never had a car and their countries can't have them because either they don't have the charging infrastructure, or the electricity generation capacity it is. An LPG cylinder is portable power tank that you can use for cooking, moving your car, heating your home, and so on.

Supposing that Africa will consume as much oil per capita as italy by 2100 that's 133 million barrels per day,

Per MJ LPG is freakin expensive. 

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On 6/20/2018 at 12:50 PM, NickW said:

I think it will more a case of societal change, developing and new tech chipping away at gasoline consumption  or at least constraining it. I don't see any mass sudden drop out. Ironically some of these technologies* will likely lengthen the use of gasoline as the improved fuel economy will inprove their attractiveness to consumers compared to EV's. 

  • Stop / start tech on petrol cars generally* 
  • Hybrids*
  • High Compression petrol engines (Mazda)*
  • Laser spark ignition*
  • Home working
  • Promotion of cycling (at least in Europe) 
  • Electrification of rail
  • Plug in EV's*
  • EV's

We are a one car household. We currently have a Hybrid. When we replace it in 3 years time I suspect we will look at Plug in Hybrids. I like the look of the Hyundai Ioniq. 25K (Sterling) with a 9 kwh battery which will cover most of my wifes daily commute.

 

On 6/20/2018 at 4:53 PM, JunoTen said:

This future will last around 7 years for new automobiles and 20 years for existing ones. Now that there is a viable alternative to the gasoline powered engine all oil importing countries will push for the ban of ICE cars. Even if they don't push for it it doesn't matter actually, because electric cars are superior and will be cheaper soon.

 

We have a couple thoughts going in this thread:

1) ICEs will be economical, at least for a while (a couple decades, maybe?), so people will keep buying them.

2) Electric cars will quickly displace ICEs because they're superior and will be cheaper soon.

These are both valid points, and I think they point to an underlying truth: EVs and ICEs are in competition.

First, I should point out that electrification is a spectrum.  The following electrification options already exist and are gaining market share:

  • Electric coolant pump
  • Electric steering
  • Electric oil pump
  • Belt starter/generator ("micro hybrid")
  • Lithium-ion starter battery for start-stop applications.  Typically paired with the belt starter/generator
  • Electrically assisted ICE ("mild hybrid")
  • Full hybrid, parallel or series (Toyota Prius and Chevy Volt respectively)
  • Full hybrid, plug-in, parallel or series
  • BEV with ICE range extender (BMW i3)
  • Full EV

Rather than saying EVs will replace ICEs, it's more accurate to say there's a menagerie of options that fit different scenarios.  The degree of electrification chosen depends on relative costs and the use case for a specific vehicle.  Thus, you could have an "electrified" future that still involves ICEs as prime movers. 

There's been plenty of discussion about falling EV costs, but ICEs are also making progress:

  • The electrification options above, which reduce fuel and maintenance costs in the remaining ICE
  • Advanced thermodynamic cycles (Adkinson in the Prius; Budack in new VW engines)
  • Cylinder coatings/treatments to reduce friction (Mercedes Nanoslide)
  • Lower viscosity, higher quality oils
  • Improved fuel injectors
  • Cylinder deactivation (GM Dynamic Skip Fire)
  • Engine Downsizing (3-cylinder engines, GM putting the first 4-cylinder in a full-size pickup)
  • The use of simulation to optimize the tar out of engines
  • Advanced control schemes (VW using multiple coolant loops in newer engines)
  • Novel engine configurations (Achates Power's Opposed Piston design - a derivative of WWII vintage German engines)
  • Transmissions with more gears (Ford 10-speed, ZF 8 & 9 speeds, etc)
  • Improved CVT's (Nissan XTRONIC)
  • Advanced valve control schemes (Fiat Multiair, various "variable valve control" schemes)
  • Use of turbochargers
  • Higher compression ratios (Mazda Skyactiv-G)
  • Advanced combustion control (Upcoming Mazda Skyactiv-X, which is to achieve the combustion holy grail: HCCI)
  • Higher octane fuel (already standard in Europe; could be phased in elsewhere if needed)
  • Long-life fluids (15k mile engine oil, lifetime transmission fluid, etc)
  • Lower maintenance cost through improved design

And so on.  The point is, legacy engine makers won't sit idly by.  This could be a technological arms race that rages over decades - and if EVs are the clear technological winner, we still have to wait 10-20 years for existing ICEs to die of old age.

What if EVs were clearly cheaper and superior today? You still have to build 100 million EVs/year - and that number is increasing as we lift people out of poverty.  You'd need dozens/hundreds of Musk's Gigafactories.  If we started mobilizing capital today, it could easily take a couple decades to install the mining/manufacturing base.  Then you have to wait for existing ICEs to die of old age.  So we're still talking about decades. 

Software moves fast, but anything involving infrastructure is like watching slugs joust. 

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On 6/21/2018 at 6:29 AM, NickW said:

Per MJ LPG is freakin expensive. 

Is around the same price as gasoline, for each mega-joule, isn't that bad, yes is expensive in comparison with coal, gas, and crude oil, but is cheap compared to other stuff and less lethal to the environment than burning wood. There had been few oil products that can be used for so many things for common people

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Just now, Sebastian Meana said:

Is around the same price as gasoline, for each mega-joule, isn't that bad, yes is expensive in comparison with coal, gas, and crude oil, but is cheap compared to other stuff and less lethal to the environment than burning wood. There had been few oil products that can be used for so many things for common people

Due to the tax on Gasoline.

In Europe LPG is one expensive way of heating your house. 

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African population growth,  the terrain,  and the lack of infrastructure guarantee a bright future for gasoline powered cars. 

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How long will ICEs last?  I'd say it depends on battery tech.  Using current battery technology, ICE vehicles are probably here to stay...indefinitely.  However, once (some might say 'if') battery tech improves substantially, then ICEs are history.  There are batteries currently in development that can give vehicles a 4,000 mile range on a single charge, recharge in 5 minutes over the air, are immune to flammability/explosions and have an infinite lifespan (via unlimited recharges).  If it ever becomes possible to economically mass produce a battery like that, the ICE will only have a place in a collector's garage or a museum. 

But this won't just disrupt the ICE market.  Such a battery would also make it so we no longer need a power grid because every house will be powered by its car's battery.  So who will own an EV? ...anyone who doesn't live under a bridge, that is who.  There will be no other choice because the new battery tech would eventually bankrupt the utility companies and then the bankruptcy court would force the companies to take down the powerlines in an attempt to recover costs by recycling the aluminum and steel lines.  If you plan on having electricity in your home, you'll need an EV.

As to when this will happen, well, that is anybody's guess.  ...maybe never.  

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