How cheap Chinese tires might explain Russia's 'stalled' 40-mile-long military convoy in Ukraine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

7 minutes ago, SUZNV said:

If Ukraine can get out of this war, then they have a president with real patriot people, less corrupted elites and careered politicians but real democracy, become neutral like the Swiss with lots of sympathy from Western people, foreign aids and FDI,  with lots of natural resources and good engineers. It is the recipe to success. Ukraine people won't take freedom & democracy for granted. 

Ze is not very popular anymore, to say the least. The reality of his presidency turned out to be quite different from the TV show. There is nothing democratic about his regime, either.

[NickW + 2,714]

On 3/7/2022 at 4:25 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

In hindsight, USSR performed a lot better in Afghanistan than USA/NATO.

Lets apply the logic spanner to the nuts of that one

Casualty count

USSR (10 year occupation) -  14453 deaths. 53753 wounded

Allied forces (20 year presence ) 3576 deaths. 22773 wounded

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

30 minutes ago, NickW said:

Lets apply the logic spanner to the nuts of that one

Casualty count

USSR (10 year occupation) -  14453 deaths. 53753 wounded

Allied forces (20 year presence ) 3576 deaths. 22773 wounded

 

USSR controlled the entire country. "Allied forces" - diplomatic quarters of Kabul and a few of its own fortified bases. USSR also had to fight the "Allied forces" by proxy.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

18 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Ze is not very popular anymore, to say the least. The reality of his presidency turned out to be quite different from the TV show. There is nothing democratic about his regime, either.

Not during in the heat of a war, both in popular and democracy. But the elites would have moved their assets and themselves elsewhere and they got no support lefts when coming back. To have a clown became president instead of careered politicians, I think Ukraine has a strong democracy foundation. A country in divided time, it will need strong leader, even a dictator to lay foundation of democracy so the country can move ahead, as long as that dictator laying the foundation of democracy after his regime and not a kingdom. Lee Kwan Yew and Park Chung Hee are my favorite examples. And most of Eastern Europe countries are my counter examples, for the exception of Poland and Czech.

People in dictatorship regime tend to expect democracy will quickly make their life better right when the dictatorship regime is going away but it is not that simple, as the people themselves tend to be corrupted during the dictatorship as well until the economy collapse and no fat left. It need a patriot leader for momentum. 

The creation of democracy and maintaining it is not something money can buy, they will need strong people in tough time to create and strong culture (tradition or religion)  in good time to keep and after the war, as long as they can keep the president, I think Ukraine has every element to get it in right direction. At the end of the war, people will not complain for everything as it is a blessing already  for just staying alive and they have nothing much to keep but to hope for the future. Ukrainian will not depend on  both EU or Russia or China but themselves to start a new. 

Edited March 12, 2022 by SUZNV

[surrept33 + 612]

great interview by a russia expert Steven Kotkin:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

unpaywalled: https://archive.ph/e5hda

what he says about Zelensky:

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

 

 

 

With Ukraine, we have the assumption that it could be a successful version of Afghanistan, and it wasn’t. It turned out that the Ukrainian people are brave; they are willing to resist and die for their country. Evidently, Putin didn’t believe that. But it turned out that “the television President,” Zelensky, who had a twenty-five-per-cent approval rating before the war—which was fully deserved, because he couldn’t govern—now it turns out that he has a ninety-one-per-cent approval rating. It turned out that he’s got cojones. He’s unbelievably brave. Moreover, having a TV-production company run a country is not a good idea in peacetime, but in wartime, when information war is one of your goals, it’s a fabulous thing to have in place.

The biggest surprise for Putin, of course, was the West. All the nonsense about how the West is decadent, the West is over, the West is in decline, how it’s a multipolar world and the rise of China, et cetera: all of that turned out to be bunk. The courage of the Ukrainian people and the bravery and smarts of the Ukrainian government, and its President, Zelensky, galvanized the West to remember who it was. And that shocked Putin! That’s the miscalculation.

 

 

[nsdp + 449]

It was Field Marshall Claude Auchinleck.  He relieved Neil Ritchie and stopped Rommel at The First Battle of El Alamein (1–27 July 1942) . Montgomery showed up late August after Gott was killed in an airplane crash and the second Battle of El Alamein started the 27-28th of October.  The Auk's problem was that he was an Indian Army  officer brought in to command Norway because of his mountain experience(which was screwed up by  Churchill who  did another Dardenells) and treated by with disdain by Churchill, British, and Dominion officers even though the Indian Army was 1/2 of the total Empire army troops deployed in WWII.  Without the Indian army, Britain would have been run out of all of Africa including Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia ,the Middle East(Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iran) and Japan would have likely captured India and Pakistan. Patton's criticisms of Montgomery  and Bradley's for that matter were well justified for plodding in Tunisia(letting Rommel escape for 1200 miles), Sicily (letting Vettinghoff escape), Italy(late showing up to connect with 5th army at Salerno), Normandy, Arnhem and the Rhine crossing.  Monty was outstanding when it came to killing Allied paratroopers at Arnhem(1st Br) and Wessel (6th Br and 17th US highest airborne casualties in WWII more than Arnhem)). He was saved from the ignominy of letting the Russian Army occupy Denmark by Canadian paratroopers who beat the Russians to Lubeck. . Richard O'Conner was the only Royal Army field commander worth his salt(Operation Compass). Alexander saved the Brits bacon at Dunkirk.  But he and Alan Brook were promoted too high to judge as field commanders.  Bill Slim of the Indian Army  was a much  better field commander than  Montgomery.

Edited April 4, 2022 by nsdp
typo

[specinho + 475]

On 3/12/2022 at 5:00 AM, SUZNV said:

If Ukraine can get out of this war, then they have a president with real patriot people, less corrupted elites and careered politicians but real democracy, become neutral like the Swiss with lots of sympathy from Western people, foreign aids and FDI,  with lots of natural resources and good engineers. It is the recipe to success. Ukraine people won't take freedom & democracy for granted. 

heard from surrept33 the approval rate for the current president was 25% because he does not know how to manage a country. Your statement might intend to mean that he steps down and when someone else takes over? Hmm........... better put it point blank that you mean the new president or the Monty successor might think he has your support............... and go on TV everyday to the bits of annoying.........

On 3/12/2022 at 11:36 PM, SUZNV said:

Not during in the heat of a war, both in popular and democracy. But the elites would have moved their assets and themselves elsewhere and they got no support lefts when coming back. To have a clown became president instead of careered politicians, I think Ukraine has a strong democracy foundation. A country in divided time, it will need strong leader, even a dictator to lay foundation of democracy so the country can move ahead, as long as that dictator laying the foundation of democracy after his regime and not a kingdom. Lee Kwan Yew and Park Chung Hee are my favorite examples. And most of Eastern Europe countries are my counter examples, for the exception of Poland and Czech.

 

The creation of democracy and maintaining it is not something money can buy, they will need strong people in tough time to create and strong culture (tradition or religion)  in good time to keep and after the war, as long as they can keep the president, I think Ukraine has every element to get it in right direction. At the end of the war, people will not complain for everything as it is a blessing already  for just staying alive and they have nothing much to keep but to hope for the future. Ukrainian will not depend on  both EU or Russia or China but themselves to start a new. 

not too sure if I understand it wrongly, were you trying to say Z of Ukraine is a clown and praise Russia a dictator who is creating a way for democracy like Lee kwan Yew etc were?

that's right. Thanks to the clown, ukraine will have a rather long road of recovery on itselves..... But....... what makes him so unabashedly still using media daily to inform how he is betrayed by the west? The democratic few who put him there might have enjoy his jokes immensely.........

[specinho + 475]

On 3/13/2022 at 12:15 AM, surrept33 said:

great interview by a russia expert Steven Kotkin:

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

unpaywalled: https://archive.ph/e5hda

what he says about Zelensky:

The Weakness of the Despot

An expert on Stalin discusses Putin, Russia, and the West.

 

 

 

With Ukraine, we have the assumption that it could be a successful version of Afghanistan, and it wasn’t. It turned out that the Ukrainian people are brave; they are willing to resist and die for their country. Evidently, Putin didn’t believe that. But it turned out that “the television President,” Zelensky, who had a twenty-five-per-cent approval rating before the war—which was fully deserved, because he couldn’t govern—now it turns out that he has a ninety-one-per-cent approval rating. It turned out that he’s got cojones. He’s unbelievably brave. Moreover, having a TV-production company run a country is not a good idea in peacetime, but in wartime, when information war is one of your goals, it’s a fabulous thing to have in place.

The biggest surprise for Putin, of course, was the West. All the nonsense about how the West is decadent, the West is over, the West is in decline, how it’s a multipolar world and the rise of China, et cetera: all of that turned out to be bunk. The courage of the Ukrainian people and the bravery and smarts of the Ukrainian government, and its President, Zelensky, galvanized the West to remember who it was. And that shocked Putin! That’s the miscalculation.

 

 

real cute........ 25% of approving rate........ and during war.............@#$%^........ but who was voting? The internet was down and people were busy fleeing .............

Not wonder he is on the news everyday. Not even the drone team who does the surveillance says a word before he does. He owns the company and creates the info...

Let's not give him a double signal, praising him while calling him a clown........ He is in  cloud 9 and can not see very clearly already....... Let's put him back on the ground and end the war please.....

[SUZNV + 1,197]

3 hours ago, specinho said:

heard from surrept33 the approval rate for the current president was 25% because he does not know how to manage a country. Your statement might intend to mean that he steps down and when someone else takes over? Hmm........... better put it point blank that you mean the new president or the Monty successor might think he has your support............... and go on TV everyday to the bits of annoying.........

 

not too sure if I understand it wrongly, were you trying to say Z of Ukraine is a clown and praise Russia a dictator who is creating a way for democracy like Lee kwan Yew etc were?

 

 

that's right. Thanks to the clown, ukraine will have a rather long road of recovery on itselves..... But....... what makes him so unabashedly still using media daily to inform how he is betrayed by the west? The democratic few who put him there might have enjoy his jokes immensely.........

 

What I mean is sometime clown (in the sense of comedian) is more a material to be president than careered politicians. I would bet most of EU and US  gov secretly hope Z to run away as no country would have back up plan for their president to abandon the country and Ukraine may have lost in few days, as they could tell their voters it was too late to do anything and move on, business as usual instead of facing the pressure of do something everyday in the last 5 weeks.  

It is normal to have low approval rate in a messed up time, when the country is divided, no fat left and you have to clean the mess of the previous administrations before can apply change gradually and efficiently while most of the voters are expecting their life would be improved immediately (assumed that the poll is accurate and not some domestic or foreign opponent propaganda).  

I assess dictatorship or democracy case by case depends on the consequences and motivation of each regime/leader. We can have Hitler, Mugabe came to power in the democracy system yet both of them turned to dictatorship and we can have dictators like Park Chung Hee or Lee Kwang Yew laid the foundation for democracy. Democracy only fair in the sense a majority  voters make the choice and everyone would pay the consequence instead of everyone pay the consequence without any chance to make a choice and the decision in the hands of a few. I don't do generalization.

Edited April 7, 2022 by SUZNV

[TailingsPond + 1,013]

3 hours ago, specinho said:

real cute........ 25% of approving rate........ and during war.............[91%]........ but who was voting? The internet was down and people were busy fleeing .............

 

That is a good point.  Polls are error prone at the best of times.   When you have an enormous sampling bias (people who are safe) the results are garbage. 

It should read: "Our polls found that 91% of wealthy people in a position of safety are happy with the current administration."

[specinho + 475]

On 4/8/2022 at 6:09 AM, SUZNV said:

What I mean is sometime clown (in the sense of comedian) is more a material to be president than careered politicians. I would bet most of EU and US  gov secretly hope Z to run away as no country would have back up plan for their president to abandon the country and Ukraine may have lost in few days, as they could tell their voters it was too late to do anything and move on, business as usual instead of facing the pressure of do something everyday in the last 5 weeks.  

It is normal to have low approval rate in a messed up time, when the country is divided, no fat left and you have to clean the mess of the previous administrations before can apply change gradually and efficiently while most of the voters are expecting their life would be improved immediately (assumed that the poll is accurate and not some domestic or foreign opponent propaganda).  

I assess dictatorship or democracy case by case depends on the consequences and motivation of each regime/leader. We can have Hitler, Mugabe came to power in the democracy system yet both of them turned to dictatorship and we can have dictators like Park Chung Hee or Lee Kwang Yew laid the foundation for democracy. Democracy only fair in the sense a majority  voters make the choice and everyone would pay the consequence instead of everyone pay the consequence without any chance to make a choice and the decision in the hands of a few. I don't do generalization.

Thank you for pointing out the solution on how this war could be ended........... As a circus show would draw the curtain for sure, the clown you meant needs to say thank you, good night and leave the arena to mark the end of his show, or something like that, right?

We must not give him signal of ambiguity so that he knows the solution is just what you have said.

1. Zelensky begins by admitting his decision to join EU and NATO has triggered the war and caused the loss of eastern states of Ukraine.

2. He would like to take responsibility about the damages incurred in the country by moving behind the backdrop. He makes a suggestions to let someone else take the place as the president.

3. He thanks the public and the rich for the support. He apologizes for the outcomes but never regrets he has made the decision.

4. he says good night to everyone and waves good bye as the curtain closing in to blind the scene..............

 

Imran Khan is a good leader. He has done much within 3 years of his appointment. But Pakistan has grown so strong as a small country in the region that nuclear capability is regarded as a potential threat.

Opposition leader is a businessman with an old family tradition of being prime minister every generation, plus with interesting negative news........ Hope it is not the Indian surgeon who proposed  insurance that tends to squeeze every dime from the poor out of sere number of poor in India and businesspersons from this group that cause the stirr??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shehbaz_Sharif

What a world....... @.@  

Edited April 10, 2022 by specinho

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

On 3/11/2022 at 8:40 AM, SUZNV said:

In this globalization world, a leader who is not running while facing a stronger enemy is good enough to be a hero.  Personally I don't think Ukraine can hold this long if Zelenskyy took the refugee deal for him and his family. This kind patriot politician is very rare nowadays. If he can survive this war, he should consider to publish a book telling about this war and he can achieve Financial Independent and Retire Early.

Lithuanian President said EU leaders agree on letting Ukraine candidate status, along side with Turkey. I got this news from Vietnam news website and only found on  Lithuanian President twitter 

https://twitter.com/GitanasNauseda/status/1502103582337871874

and India today

https://www.indiatoday.in/world/russia-ukraine-war/story/eu-leaders-ukraine-membership-lithuanian-president-says-1924027-2022-03-11

Don't know why there is no big mainstream in Western World announce this yet.

Biden and the Democratic party leadership needs the cover of war right now. Any bridge of peace will not gain traction.

Both the Russian collusion investigations and Biden's laptop are taking on very sinister turns. Without this war these events would spin out of control, even the US press and social media giants are implicated. 

 

[nsdp + 449]

On 4/7/2022 at 1:42 PM, specinho said:

real cute........ 25% of approving rate........ and during war.............@#$%^........ but who was voting? The internet was down and people were busy fleeing .............

Not wonder he is on the news everyday. Not even the drone team who does the surveillance says a word before he does. He owns the company and creates the info...

 

Let's not give him a double signal, praising him while calling him a clown........ He is in  cloud 9 and can not see very clearly already....... Let's put him back on the ground and end the war please.....

Not Z's war to stop short of capitulation.   He like Churchill in 1940 has risen to the occasion.   Let's wait to see if he flops like Churchill did beginning with robbing OConor of troops to finish off the Italians in Libya and sending them to  the  follies in Greece/Crete in 1941

Edited April 11, 2022 by nsdp
corrct island

[specinho + 475]

On 4/11/2022 at 11:53 AM, nsdp said:

Not Z's war to stop short of capitulation.   He like Churchill in 1940 has risen to the occasion.   Let's wait to see if he flops like Churchill did beginning with robbing OConor of troops to finish off the Italians in Libya and sending them to  the  follies in Greece/Crete in 1941

Not at all similar........ Churchill was a militant throughout his career....... His insights had been valuable. And, he did not trigger the war........

Z........ a successor of Monty......... is fondly called 'a clown' by a few supporters............. with daddy a professor in computer, or something........ His announcement and provocation cause the war. It would be right if he takes responsibility over the losses and moves behind the scene to end the war. With active seismic activity roaming around the globe, and Ukraine is at high risk of receiving impact, the longer he stays there, the more likely he is going to be falling in to a crevice..... than Crete

Ripple effects from the war will not cease even after the war ended with Z  letting someone else take over the presidential seat, if it is not charred already....... Where are we heading??

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Let me explain to you plainly because it seems you dont really understand whats going on in Ukraine.

Ukraine is not at all any people demogracy but classic oligarchy. I would say its really classic example of oligarchy.

So only the most powerful oligarchs really rule in Ukraine.

And these oligarchs sometimes hired themselves as an employee to manage the country and to negotiate various settlements how to rule the country between them Mr. Zelensky as a nominal president of this country.

This doesnt not really change the fact that he's not in real charge in Ukraine.

This is because oligarchs have been really ruling Ukraine for last 30 years and this is a huge tragedy for Ukraine. Its because oligarchy is probably the worst kind of goverment for any country development you could imagine.

They decide about everything and sometime clash with each other

If they dont agree at all there might be a clash or even revolution. So we had Maidan I and Maidan II and various minor  internal crises you well not informed.

In much less severe way you could say the some about Russia. The big difference is that althougt Russia is also an oligarchy in Russia Kremlin and Putin is the real power not the oligarchs themselves and thats the main difference.

Edited April 12, 2022 by Tomasz

[SUZNV + 1,197]

18 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Let me explain to you plainly because it seems you dont really understand whats going on in Ukraine.

Ukraine is not at all any people demogracy but classic oligarchy. I would say its really classic example of oligarchy.

So only the most powerful oligarchs really rule in Ukraine.

And these oligarchs sometimes hired themselves as an employee to manage the country and to negotiate various settlements how to rule the country between them Mr. Zelensky as a nominal president of this country.

This doesnt not really change the fact that he's not in real charge in Ukraine.

This is because oligarchs have been really ruling Ukraine for last 30 years and this is a huge tragedy for Ukraine. Its because oligarchy is probably the worst kind of goverment for any country development you could imagine.

They decide about everything and sometime clash with each other

If they dont agree at all there might be a clash or even revolution. So we had Maidan I and Maidan II and various minor  internal crises you well not informed.

In much less severe way you could say the some about Russia. The big difference is that althougt Russia is also an oligarchy in Russia Kremlin and Putin is the real power not the oligarchs themselves and thats the main difference.

I don't judge the book by its cover. Why would Ukraine common citizens be risking their lives &enduring hardship for an oligarchy regime? I believe the oligarchs were fighting each other and as a result Russia got back Crimea. The People of Ukraine are the judge of their system and are fighting for their future. Their opinions and actions matter. Our opinions and Western/Russia's mainstream don't matter. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 4/10/2022 at 12:00 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Biden and the Democratic party leadership needs the cover of war right now. Any bridge of peace will not gain traction.

Both the Russian collusion investigations and Biden's laptop are taking on very sinister turns. Without this war these events would spin out of control, even the US press and social media giants are implicated. 

 

I agree. I think they didn't expect the war would be this long but now it seems they seize this opportunity to pull Putin down and time in their side. This is the Vietnam war in the reverse where Russian has to do both the spending and fighting and each Western country pumping techs, weapon and money. I don't see the end of this war anytime soon.

Edited April 13, 2022 by SUZNV

[surrept33 + 612]

20 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Let me explain to you plainly because it seems you dont really understand whats going on in Ukraine.

Ukraine is not at all any people demogracy but classic oligarchy. I would say its really classic example of oligarchy.

So only the most powerful oligarchs really rule in Ukraine.

And these oligarchs sometimes hired themselves as an employee to manage the country and to negotiate various settlements how to rule the country between them Mr. Zelensky as a nominal president of this country.

This doesnt not really change the fact that he's not in real charge in Ukraine.

This is because oligarchs have been really ruling Ukraine for last 30 years and this is a huge tragedy for Ukraine. Its because oligarchy is probably the worst kind of goverment for any country development you could imagine.

They decide about everything and sometime clash with each other

If they dont agree at all there might be a clash or even revolution. So we had Maidan I and Maidan II and various minor  internal crises you well not informed.

In much less severe way you could say the some about Russia. The big difference is that althougt Russia is also an oligarchy in Russia Kremlin and Putin is the real power not the oligarchs themselves and thats the main difference.

I think your description is right about Ukraine historically, but it does not reflect where Ukraine is trending towards. This is a movement away from Russia in the 90s-style oligarch sense towards the European norms and reforms required to join the EU. A move towards stronger democracy and away from corruption promoted by the post-soviet elite and towards transparency. 

After all, the largest win for Zelensky since he took power was the Anti-Oligarch Law in 2021:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-zelenskiy-anti-oligarch-law/31548053.html

Intended to curb the corrupting influence of oligarchs and strengthen the rule of law and civil institutions. 

Russia underestimated the strength of the Ukrainian government and people because they expected the government to fold after 3 days. They expected the Ukrainian government lose control of the country because people were not truly invested in reforming the country. The US had a team in place to extract Zelensky on day 1, they chose to stay and defend their country from regressing to Russian domination. 

Economists' freedom index ranks Ukraine's democracy around the same as Mexico..... certainly not perfect, but it's no Russia, which has progressed into a kleptocratic mafia state with a big boss: Putin.

States where there is a big boss are only as good as the decision making process of the big boss. That's the fundamental advantage of democracy vs autocracy. Putin may have made some good moves curbing the power of oligarchs initially, and he sure did benefit in oil prices in the 2000s, but especially since the 2011-2012 protests, he's made increasingly irrational decisions and increased his power at the cost of everyday Russian people. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by surrept33

[surrept33 + 612]

Putin jailed 100 fsb agents responsible for pre-war intelligence on Ukraine apparently for their intelligence errors:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/putin-purges-more-than-100-fsb-agents-in-apparent-retaliation-amid-ukraine-invasion-quagmire

The leader of the unit was sent to Lefortovo Prison, a notorious prison used by the kgb. 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 4/10/2022 at 11:00 AM, specinho said:

Thank you for pointing out the solution on how this war could be ended........... As a circus show would draw the curtain for sure, the clown you meant needs to say thank you, good night and leave the arena to mark the end of his show, or something like that, right?

We must not give him signal of ambiguity so that he knows the solution is just what you have said.

1. Zelensky begins by admitting his decision to join EU and NATO has triggered the war and caused the loss of eastern states of Ukraine.

2. He would like to take responsibility about the damages incurred in the country by moving behind the backdrop. He makes a suggestions to let someone else take the place as the president.

3. He thanks the public and the rich for the support. He apologizes for the outcomes but never regrets he has made the decision.

4. he says good night to everyone and waves good bye as the curtain closing in to blind the scene..............

 

Imran Khan is a good leader. He has done much within 3 years of his appointment. But Pakistan has grown so strong as a small country in the region that nuclear capability is regarded as a potential threat.

Opposition leader is a businessman with an old family tradition of being prime minister every generation, plus with interesting negative news........ Hope it is not the Indian surgeon who proposed  insurance that tends to squeeze every dime from the poor out of sere number of poor in India and businesspersons from this group that cause the stirr??

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shehbaz_Sharif

What a world....... @.@  

I don't see the problem of wanting to join EU or NATO for protection or economical gain. Many Eastern Europe countries did that and as a sovereign country, that should not be the excuse for someone to invade. Russia has the nuclear itself and NATO wouldn't dare to join the war in Ukraine proved that Ukraine's wish to join EU or NATO post no real threat to Russia. All North Korea has is nuclear and the regime can survive for 3 generations let along Russia. 

In democracy countries, assumed that election is not rigged, each person, rich or poor, has only 1 vote and the result is the majority's choice. The tycoons/corporations can only manipulate to persuade more voting by using their tools: social and mainstream media and donate to their favorite candidate openly by law.  So if anyone hate the rich yet votes for the most popular in media or  the one receive the most donations from  tycoons/corporations, why would he/she complains for the consequence? That is how voting works. 

Normally the time for a good leader is when the country cannot sink any lower or any fat left. The first thing he has to do is to take his time to clean up the mess and gradually change the declining culture/mentality and if the world economy environment is good and they make good use of their geopolitics advantage. I don't know anything about Imran Khan or Pakistan lately but if I heard about a great leader who transform the country in 3 years, it is either his predecessor cleaned up the mess and bear all the hate or he is blowing up a new bubble by borrowing money from oversea for temporary gains. 3 years period is too short for anything.

Sadly in history, good leader tend to be proven in the desperate time or many years after his regime to be accurately judged. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by SUZNV

[nsdp + 449]

14 hours ago, SUZNV said:

I agree. I think they didn't expect the war would be this long but now it seems they seize this opportunity to pull Putin down and time in their side. This is the Vietnam war in the reverse where Russian has to do both the spending and fighting and each Western country pumping techs, weapon and money. I don't see the end of this war anytime soon.

So verry true. I WILL LET YOU PROVIDE THE VIETNAMESE WORD FOR FOREIGN DEVILS.  That is truly what the Vietnamese not Mandarins  thought of us and what I am sure what the majority of Ukrainians think of Putin and his Oligarchy.

[SUZNV + 1,197]

6 hours ago, nsdp said:

So verry true. I WILL LET YOU PROVIDE THE VIETNAMESE WORD FOR FOREIGN DEVILS.  That is truly what the Vietnamese not Mandarins  thought of us and what I am sure what the majority of Ukrainians think of Putin and his Oligarchy.

More than thousands year next to China made Vietnamese have a strong identity against foreign occupation and that can be motivated well in any war.

Current Vietnam regime uses that angle to say we "saved" you from the foreign occupations (started with France, then the US, then border war with China), put it in  half of the History education program. to justify their Totalitarian Authority, in the themes the foreigners ate their cakes (French did, but at least we got the modern education, medicine).  This is the mainstream and the thought of NVA and Vietcong supporters and they fought as tough as they can.

But the South Vietnam supporters thought of it as a ideology civil war, arguing that the War existed  before Diem was killed and then US army directly started involving in the war. This involvement solidified the theme foreign occupation from North Vietnam Army and Vietcong propaganda and undermined their will to fight for the civil war (Vietnam has a long period of North vs South civil war before, 1627-1775).  But even without US came in, South Vietnam would have lost no matter what. How do you explain capitalism and communism to everyone in a defensive position and no way to make the war end. Diem also had a weakness that can be exploited: Catholic is not a popular religion in Vietnam and it introduced mostly by the French, which was considered "Foreign Devils". 

You would be surprised that some North Vietnamese veterans think the South saved the North to become North Korea, even the South lost, as it is impossible to persuade South Vietnamese to fully commit to Communism. They woke from the propaganda when they occupied south Vietnam and realized they were deceived.

The pro Democracy faction, consists of many Important North Vietnamese Party members, lost in 1990 and "Doi moi" instead. The Vietcong have nationalists pro Democracy as well but they were weaken as 70% Vietcong was destroyed in 1968 total uprising which make the North Vietnam faction has more influence after the war. 

Because of the South Vietnam have larger population, and remittent from Western Countries,   and many North Vietnamese moving South for more opportunities, Vietnamese Communism allows more level of freedom compares to Chinese Communism. One big example is no firewall like in China. This allows pro America,  pro Russia, pro Communism, pro Democracy to freely discuss about ideologies, as long as they don't organize any party against current regime. And not much capital flight control... yet. 

Because of the weight of history against China, more and more lean to pro America. Most of Vietnamese understand the basic of geopolitics of Vietnam.

However pro America faction does not necessary mean pro Democracy. The Ho's "startup" against France occupation,  the failed Democracy of former Soviet countries, the rise of China economy, the growing of public sectors in Western Countries, and the lockdown in Western Countries early 2020 and regulations after that make many of them perceive that Democracy is not a get rich quick scheme. If their prospect of economics is positive, why fix things not broken yet.  

The  Vietnamese mainstream theme is China will surpass US and many economics policies in Vietnam imitate China so everything is positive in the long run. I am curious when China economics bubble collapse, which direction will Vietnam gov detour to avoid the same collapse, this time no more footstep to follow. 

Secondly if Vietnam gov observe the inefficiency of Russian weapons in Ukraine war in modern warfare, which their main defense based on, I expect they will cooperate more with Israel and maybe Japan to modernize their military, which server the purpose of defense against China. I have a feeling Vietnam gov  is in front of making big decision at the  threshold of a new era, for better or worse in next decades.

 It seems Vietnam missed the best chances for democracy in 1945 and 1990 when the country was reset, people have nothing to lose and no potential of oligarchy. Now have to go ahead with the Stockholm Syndrome. This is why I have high hope for Ukraine aftermath if the current regime survive.

 

[specinho + 475]

On 4/14/2022 at 1:38 AM, SUZNV said:

I don't see the problem of wanting to join EU or NATO for protection or economical gain. Many Eastern Europe countries did that and as a sovereign country, that should not be the excuse for someone to invade. Russia has the nuclear itself and NATO wouldn't dare to join the war in Ukraine proved that Ukraine's wish to join EU or NATO post no real threat to Russia. All North Korea has is nuclear and the regime can survive for 3 generations let along Russia. 

In democracy countries, assumed that election is not rigged, each person, rich or poor, has only 1 vote and the result is the majority's choice. The tycoons/corporations can only manipulate to persuade more voting by using their tools: social and mainstream media and donate to their favorite candidate openly by law.  So if anyone hate the rich yet votes for the most popular in media or  the one receive the most donations from  tycoons/corporations, why would he/she complains for the consequence? That is how voting works. 

Normally the time for a good leader is when the country cannot sink any lower or any fat left. The first thing he has to do is to take his time to clean up the mess and gradually change the declining culture/mentality and if the world economy environment is good and they make good use of their geopolitics advantage. I don't know anything about Imran Khan or Pakistan lately but if I heard about a great leader who transform the country in 3 years, it is either his predecessor cleaned up the mess and bear all the hate or he is blowing up a new bubble by borrowing money from oversea for temporary gains. 3 years period is too short for anything.

Sadly in history, good leader tend to be proven in the desperate time or many years after his regime to be accurately judged. 

1. your first paragraph indicates you are supporting Ze's atrocity.......... Your suggestion to let Russia change hand indicates your intention to conquer Russia. For nuclear weapons and natural resources that you could have purchased with your bountiful reserves, you would rather create so much problems for others.

On another side you are extremely smart. You do not go to war and conquer the land yourself but let them fight and you reap control in between. Even if you unite all under EU, many problems would emerge out of diversity that proven out of hands. Do you realize your greed would cause massive problems rolling for the world, not just to the citizens of countries involved? For the glory of one day or a week, you create problems that could last for decades or century. You must reconsider your plan. Let Ze retreat to the background.

Japan, Germany rebounced from WWII to lead the world with good quality products and master economy of the world. Despite problems emerge after a few decades of prosperity, they nevertheless, have shown good changes to the world. Contrary to your plan, starting from the wrong idea, leading to wrong strategy and begetting wrong result. What positive outcome(s) begotten from your action, if you care to ask?

2. did you try to mentioned in the second paragraph that you do not know about glitches and election? You do not know voting in modern society is no longer democratic with so much power wrestling on stage?

3. making wrong assumption that leads to the wrong outcome has been  your greatest issue. Declining culture/mentality takes abrupt corrective measure, not gradual change, if  you know the root causes of an issue and how to do it.

a) When Ze does not even have the basic right characteristics/ ethic to be a nobleman, nothing else he does would come out right. Never try to convince people to believe he could clean up the mess. He is the mess.

b) a good and capable leader can transform the world in a day or a few months with positive outcomes if one knows how. Generalization judging from those around you would only make you miss the quality mark by much.........

You must retreat from your current position/stand if you are leading the change that you believe required. For your intention has not been right, strategy skewed, hence, the outcome will not be either.

 

[SUZNV + 1,197]

7 hours ago, specinho said:

1. your first paragraph indicates you are supporting Ze's atrocity.......... Your suggestion to let Russia change hand indicates your intention to conquer Russia. For nuclear weapons and natural resources that you could have purchased with your bountiful reserves, you would rather create so much problems for others.

On another side you are extremely smart. You do not go to war and conquer the land yourself but let them fight and you reap control in between. Even if you unite all under EU, many problems would emerge out of diversity that proven out of hands. Do you realize your greed would cause massive problems rolling for the world, not just to the citizens of countries involved? For the glory of one day or a week, you create problems that could last for decades or century. You must reconsider your plan. Let Ze retreat to the background.

Japan, Germany rebounced from WWII to lead the world with good quality products and master economy of the world. Despite problems emerge after a few decades of prosperity, they nevertheless, have shown good changes to the world. Contrary to your plan, starting from the wrong idea, leading to wrong strategy and begetting wrong result. What positive outcome(s) begotten from your action, if you care to ask?

2. did you try to mentioned in the second paragraph that you do not know about glitches and election? You do not know voting in modern society is no longer democratic with so much power wrestling on stage?

3. making wrong assumption that leads to the wrong outcome has been  your greatest issue. Declining culture/mentality takes abrupt corrective measure, not gradual change, if  you know the root causes of an issue and how to do it.

a) When Ze does not even have the basic right characteristics/ ethic to be a nobleman, nothing else he does would come out right. Never try to convince people to believe he could clean up the mess. He is the mess.

b) a good and capable leader can transform the world in a day or a few months with positive outcomes if one knows how. Generalization judging from those around you would only make you miss the quality mark by much.........

You must retreat from your current position/stand if you are leading the change that you believe required. For your intention has not been right, strategy skewed, hence, the outcome will not be either.

 

1

a) Logic fallacy: Putin and Russia is two separate entities. Proof? Russia and Russians exists before Putin and maybe after, with or without Putin.

b)  What do you mean by "You" in your statement? USA or myself? If you have a deep knowledge of history of Europe and even the World, we are in the longest peaceful time since the end of WW2 with US emerged as top super power, starting as a former British colony. The world has never been this booming in economy, technology, population and living standard, whether you like it or not, US protect the trading route and ensure the peaceful Europe and relatively the World. Point to me a better most powerful country in history that give the world that in the entire history.

c) What atrocity are you talking about with Zelensky? Assume that he has, how do you compare his with Putin's?

d) After WW2, it is US helped Germany and Japan to rebuild the economy, outsources jobs and sharing technologies because they are US allies in the Cold War. And after that Taiwan, Korea, China etc.... Since WW2 until now, most US allies can save a lots in defense and guarding sea trading route which lead to the greatest globalization. Did US ask any country pay tribute for the protection? Do you think France, England would let Germany united into one country without the US after that many big  wars between them? In exchange of what? Complaining from the world politicians blame US for their failures in governing their own countries when things go wrong to make their citizens feeling proud that they dare to bash the US?

2&3 Please, enlighten me with a better system, another role model for the Western Countries to follow? Pakistan? India? Russia? China? Precisely which leader are you singing for and his government system.  Countless economies boomed for decades, let along 3 years, and then their economies collapsed with chaos. Venezuela, Argentina, Siri Lanka etc. How long does it take for Lee Kwan Yew to lay the foundation Singapore? Any country can  shine within 3 years maybe simply the sank too low for a starting point. Just like Vietnam before 1990. 

Stop projecting your personal opinions on others subjectively. Give evidences, solutions, or at least examples to prove your point. I make it super easy for you to just answer my questions. That is how civilized debate works otherwise we are getting nowhere so we should stop wasting each other time, "for the greater good". 

Edited April 15, 2022 by SUZNV
typo

[SUZNV + 1,197]

I am curious about Pakistan prime minister so I do some digging trend in the recent years because it is kind of impossible to have a strong economy in the global pandemic time and as I expected:

Pakistan inflation rate:

Pakistan currency vs USD: (lose value 7.7% since 2022)

External debt (million USD):

 

Pakistan can inflate internal debt away with high inflation rate, but with external debts is now 35% of GDP while the USD is heading stronger because of the devaluing of Japan and EU currency, while Fed is increasing the rate and tighten their balance sheet,  Imran Khan did no miracle to his successor, even when he benefited  with debt decrease because of renting out Gwadar Port to China. His policy is no different than any other country does: during pandemic time: take more foreign debt and devaluing Pakistan currency. It is not sustainable. and heading to trouble ahead. 

Don't take things at personal level, I rarely praise for any incumbent head of the country. Look in the bright side maybe it is not too bad when he lost the election.  Most of the incumbent leaders are in disadvantage position for election this year. Trudeau was smart  to push for early election last year. 

 

Edited April 15, 2022 by SUZNV