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Oil Stocks, Market Direction, Bitcoin, Minerals, Gold, Silver - Technical Trading <--- Chris Vermeulen & Gareth Soloway weigh in

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As Bitcoin's weekend rally erased its losses for the year, right now, "is a bad point to get into Bitcoin," says Gareth Soloway, president and CFO of InTheMoneyStocks.com In order to have a legitimate break to the upside, "bitcoin needs to hold at the $50,000 level," the expert technical analyst tells our Daniela Cambone. Soloway cautions investors seeking to invest into the cryptocurrency by asserting that, "you don't want to buy into resistance." Cryptos have had a massive run, he tells our Cambone when discussing rising altcoins, however, "it would be nice to see consolidation at this point." "Gold faces downside in the near-term," and the economy slowing aggressively in the second half of 2022 will only help the precious metal, he predicts. The Reddit meme traders are, "trying to recreate the magic," he says, as GameStop and AMC have been identified with bullish trends. Soloway concludes that the coming digital yuan will be the reserve currency of the world, "as the dollar is here to stay in the short-term, but will have issues long-term competing."

Bitcoin Still Heading to $20,000, So Don’t Get Excited About the Rally Warns Expert   [VIDEO interview]   https://youtu.be/_XG2qXfU5-s

 

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/volatility-retreats-as-stocks-commodities-rally-950369

Volatility Retreats As Stocks & Commodities Rally

Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.

z29oro.jpg?func=cover&q=70&width=700

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is a real-time index. It is derived from the prices of SPX index options with near-term expiration dates that are utilized to generate a 30-day forward projection of volatility. The VIX allows us to gauge market sentiment or the degree of fear among market participants. As the Volatility Index VIX goes up, fear increases, and as it goes down, fear dissipates.

Commodities and equities are both showing renewed strength on the heels of global interest rate increases. Inflation shows no sign of abating as energy, metals, food products, and housing continues their upward bias.

During the last 18-months, the VIX has been trading between its upper resistance of 36.00 and its lower support of 16.00. As the Volatility Index VIX falls, fear subsides, and money flows back into stocks.

VIX – Volatility S&P 500 Index – CBOE – Daily Chart

 

vix.png?func=cover&q=70&width=700

SPY Rallies +10%

The SPY has enjoyed a sharp rally back up after touching its Fibonacci 1.618% support based on its 2020 Covid price drop. Money has been flowing back into stocks as investors seem to be adapting to the current geopolitical environment and the change in global central bank lending rate policy.

Resistance on the SPY is the early January high near 475, while support remains solidly in place at 414. March marks the 2nd anniversary of the 2020 Covid low that SPY made at 218.26 on March 23, 2020.

SPY – SPDR S&P 500 ETF TRUST – ARCA – Daily Chart

 

chart-description-automatically-generate

 

Berkshire Hathaway Record High $538,949!

Berkshire Hathaway is up +20.01% year to date compared to the S&P 500 -4.68%. Berkshire’s Warren Buffet has also been on a shopping spree, and investors seem to be comforted that he is buying stocks again. Buffet reached a deal to buy insurer Alleghany (y) for $11.6 billion and purchased nearly a 15% stake in Occidental Petroleum (OXY), worth $8 billion.

These acquisitions seem to be well-timed as insurers and banks tend to benefit from rising interest rates, and Occidental generates the bulk of its cash flow from the production of crude oil.

As technical traders, we look exclusively at the price action to provide specific clues as to the current trend or a potential change in trend. With that said, Berkshire is a classic example of not fighting the market. As Berkshire continues to make new highs, its’ trend is up!

BRK.A – Berkshire Hathaway Inc. – NYSE – Daily Chart

 

chart-histogram-description-automaticall

 

Commodity Demand Remains Strong

Inflation continues to run at 40-year highs, and it appears that it will take more than one FED rate hike to subdue prices. Since price is King, we definitely want to ride this trend and not fight it. It is always nice to buy on a pullback, but the energy markets at this point appear to be rising exponentially. The XOP ETF gave us some nice buying opportunities earlier at the Fibonacci 0.618% $71.78 and the 0.93% $93.13 of the COVID 2020 range high-low.

Remember, the trend is your friend, as many a trader has gone broke trying to pick or sell a top before its time! Well-established uptrends like the XOP are perfect examples of how utilizing a trailing stop can keep a trader from getting out of the market too soon but still offer protection in case of a sudden trend reversal.

XOP – SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Explore & Product – ARCA – Daily Chart

 

chart-description-automatically-generate

 

Knowledge, Wisdom, and Application Are Needed

It is important to understand that we are not saying the market has topped and is headed lower. This article is to shed light on some interesting analyses of which you should be aware. As technical traders, we follow price only, and when a new trend has been confirmed, we will change our positions accordingly. We provide our ETF trades to our subscribers, and somewhat surprisingly, we entered five new trades last week, four of which have now hit their first profit target levels.

Our models continually track price action in a multitude of markets, asset classes, and global money flow. As our models generate new information about trends or a change in trends, we will communicate these signals expeditiously to our subscribers and to those on our trading newsletter email list

 

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Uh... Bitcoin will act like Gold the longer it is used. Dude says Gold will be going up(I agree).  Only reason bitcoin dropped is because China put a chink into the mining operations for a short period.  For Bitcoin to drop to 20k from 47k, China would have to completely shut off bitcoin mining.  

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4 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Uh... Bitcoin will act like Gold the longer it is used. Dude says Gold will be going up(I agree).  Only reason bitcoin dropped is because China put a chink into the mining operations for a short period.  For Bitcoin to drop to 20k from 47k, China would have to completely shut off bitcoin mining.  

They already did, causing the miners to move over the border to Kazakhstan.

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You should buy some rouble or phisical gold for russian comoddities.

We start with NG on 1 Aprill 2022 - you can with rouble phisical gold maybe bitcoin. Or you are cut off from Gazprom deliveries.

Next stage is oil for rouble or gold. High time after sanctions on russian central bank.

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On 3/29/2022 at 3:32 PM, Tomasz said:

You should buy some rouble or phisical gold for russian comoddities.

We start with NG on 1 Aprill 2022 - you can with rouble phisical gold maybe bitcoin. Or you are cut off from Gazprom deliveries.

Next stage is oil for rouble or gold. High time after sanctions on russian central bank.

Tomasz, You called it correctly.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ruble-regains-100-its-loss-after-russia-invaded-ukraine-why

The Ruble Regains 100% Of Its Loss After Russia Invaded Ukraine

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inflation-image.png?func=cover&q=70&widt

The highest level of inflation in recent history occurred between 1979 and 1981.

During these years inflation levels were at double digits with 1980 having the highest inflation level in recent history at 13.58%.

If the forecasts by the Federal Reserve bank of Cleveland are correct and inflation for the first quarter of 2022 is above 9%, that would be the highest level of inflation in 43 years.

https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-analysis-a-dire-prediction-by-the-federal-reserve-bank-of-cleveland-for-the-first-quarter-of-2022-953346

 

 

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https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/can-tracking-global-money-flow-provide-clues-to-stay-in-the-black-953279

According to The Bank of International Settlements, the global foreign currency exchange (FX) daily transactional turnover averages $6.6 trillion.

Recently money has been re-allocating to different assets as global investors seek returns. The FX markets have also benefited from capital in-flows.

Looking at the last 2-years, beginning from the Covid lows put in on March 2020, we see the SPY went from a -30% loss to early January, where the SPY touched +50%.

Interestingly, the AUDJPY (Australian dollar vs. Japanese yen) went from -15% to more than +20% or a total change of 35% during the same timeframe.

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March 31st - KITCO NEWS Youtube - Gareth called it correctly...

Bitcoin price about to see huge moves; Oil, stocks won't 'be pretty' - Gareth Soloway's update

https://youtu.be/HnZZ-uNstXQ

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https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/vitol-warns-oil-markets-are-underpricing-supply-risks-commodity-traders-brace-higher-prices

World's Largest Oil Trader Warns Energy Markets Are Under-Pricing Supply Risks

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Sunday, Apr 03, 2022 - 05:05 PM

Thanks to a lucky confluence of circumstances, President Joe Biden has so far been able to delude the American people into believing that his latest feeble attempt to drive energy prices lower (without abandoning the green agenda that has led to structural deficiencies in the American oil and gas industry that will require concentrated investment over time to correct) has actually helped to drive prices lower at the pump.

Unfortunately for him, a growing chorus of energy-market analysts are warning the public that the SPR release is essentially a band-aid on a bullet wound. Just the other day, Goldman Sachs warned that the unprecedented SPR release of 180 mb over the next six months to fight the "Putin price hike at the pump" has, in reality, done nothing to resolve structural issues, prompting the bank's energy analysts to raise their near-term forecast for 2H22 Brent to $115/bbl from $110/bbl.

Fresh off making a record $4 billion profit in 2021 (per Reuters), analysts at Vitol, the world's largest energy trader, are warning of more imminent upside ahead in oil prices.

Their reasoning? Lockdowns in Shanghai and Washington's efforts to lead a 'Marshall plan for energy' to try and wean Europe off their dependence on Russian oil doesn't change the fact that flows of Russian crude and oil products may be down by between 1 and 3 million barrels a day through the third quarter, while OPEC+ has refused to bolster its output.

"Oil feels cheaper than most would’ve predicted," Mike Muller, Vitol Group’s head of Asia, said Sunday on a podcast produced by Dubai-based consultant and publisher Gulf Intelligence. "Oil prices could be higher given the risk of disruption of supplies from Russia. But people are still lost figuring out those numbers."

Other factors that have weighed on energy prices this past month include (according to Bloomberg)...

The Lockdown in Shanghai....

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More on trading of oil, gas, bitcoin and crypto, stocks, gold, silver.

On Monday April 11th at the world's largest Crypto conference (Miami) Gareth Soloway gives some trading sights to Kitco News...

Gareth Soloway: Bitcoin just hit a short-term floor of $40k, here's what's next

https://youtu.be/dcuiSFB3oUc

 

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Which-Oil-Giant-Stands-To-Lose-The-Most-In-The-Exodus-From-Russia.html

Which Oil Giant Stands To Lose The Most In The Exodus From Russia?

By David Messler - Apr 12, 2022, 7:00 PM CDT

  • The war in Ukraine has sparked an exodus from Russia, and some of the biggest oil companies in the world are writing down billions of dollars in assets.
  • Big Oil, particularly BP, has been hit hard, and the next quarterly financial reports may drive stock prices even lower.
  • Oilfield service companies have not escaped the fallout, either, though more diverse exposure globally may help them mitigate the financial impact.

[David goes over different companies.]

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A Global Liquidity Crisis with Massive Food Shortages Is Coming Warns Jim Rickards

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZwjMAs4WbQ

In part one of Jim Rickards' discussion with our Daniela Cambone, the NYT best-selling author said "the coexistence of economic sanctions and kinetic warfare is nothing new." The rising tensions between the United States and Russia did not brew overnight, Rickards continues. Ukraine should be a "buffer state and should be neutral," Rickards says, emphasizing that economic sanctions not only punish Russian citizens, but also punish American citizens. Rickards implies that there will be massive food shortages as Russia occupies Ukraine, saying, "the impact is already here, and it's going to get a lot worse." The Chinese yuan and Russian ruble will not replace the dollar as the world reserve currency, he concludes.

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Jim Rickards: Russia and Ukraine Explained In this interview, Jim Rickards provides his latest analysis on the Russia-Ukraine situation. Jim goes back through the history of this conflict, and gives his explanation of what 'winning' this war will look like.  He discusses the coming GLOBAL LIQUIDITY CRISIS and REFERS TO THE CRASH THAT DID NOT HAPPEN IN THE LATE 1990'S.  

Rickards talks about how the entire Ukraine-Russia conflict could have been avoided if not for the United States.

Jim Rickards: Russia and Ukraine Explained

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qHVcCyDmzgA

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"It's A Shitshow Of Illiquidity Everywhere" - Market Mayhem Strikes Ahead Of Long Weekend

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Apr 14, 2022 - 03:01 PM

One quick glance across your screens today and you would think WW3 actually started or Biden died or some such epochal event... but no. Instead, amid some modest softness in retail sales and surging sentiment, the magnitude of movements in bond yields, bitcoin, big-tech & bank stocks, and the dollar appears to have been driven more by positioning and panic than any fundamentals. As one trader - who has traded for more than one business cycle - put it so eloquently to us on MSG:

"It's a shitshow of illiquidity everywhere... [insert expletive of choice]... and The Fed hasn't even started actually yanking the rug out yet!!!"

Even the much more 'well spoken' Mohamed El-Erian doesn't know what to make of the volume...

Per this one-week volatility in yields on 2- and 10-year US government bonds: It’s getting harder to make sense of what normally would be deemed such outsized daily moves.

Oh and don't forget, democracy itself is/was at stake after Elon Musk's offer for TWTR - that alone probably explains the mayhem </sarcasm>...

2022-04-14_12-23-51.jpg?itok=yWMSuE4P

So let's take a look at the market mayhem...

Stocks puked (led by big-tech) - don't forget that today saw $2.1 trillion opex...

2022-04-14_12-59-04.jpg?itok=pSDCQ9CH

An ugly week too for Nasdaq (down 3%) and S&P (Small Caps managed to rise 0.5% on the week)...

2022-04-14_13-00-03.jpg?itok=On7trTjP

On the week, big-tech was battered along with banks while Energy and Materials outperformed...

2022-04-14_12-17-33.jpg?itok=ERw472q3

Source: Bloomberg

Value and Growth pumped and dumped all over each other all week...

2022-04-14_12-12-19.jpg?itok=Hcwml9Eb

Source: Bloomberg

And "Most Shorted" stocks swung wildly (Except today)...

2022-04-14_12-22-53.jpg?itok=igk6SjZ5

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were a total bloodbath today leaving 30Y yields up 20bps on the week (while 2Y managed to hold -5bps)...

2022-04-14_12-15-38.jpg?itok=uEL192lm

Source: Bloomberg

For context, 10Y yields spiked a massive 19bps off early morning highs today!!!

2022-04-14_12-02-40.jpg?itok=nKyPNwx5

Source: Bloomberg

All of which extended the massive steepening we have seen in the last two weeks...

2022-04-14_12-20-35.jpg?itok=PKaVRbIj

Source: Bloomberg

Note that rate-hike expectations remain flat (around 9 more hikes in 2022), but the subsequent rate-cut expectations are shifting hawkishly...

2022-04-14_12-56-40.jpg?itok=2QoqTbCC

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar exploded higher...

2022-04-14_12-04-10.jpg?itok=0C9sEn3f

Source: Bloomberg

Euro puked to two-year lows, dips under $1.08

2022-04-14_12-08-50.jpg?itok=xC3R41yG

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was battered back below $40,000...

2022-04-14_12-09-55.jpg?itok=AMwuzaRA

Source: Bloomberg

The energy complex re-exploded this week with oil prices erasing all of the Biden SPR cunning plan move and surging higher...

2022-04-14_12-34-18.jpg?itok=N93NSK7U

And NatGas soaring even more...

2022-04-14_12-27-17.jpg?itok=fh5dE9Uf

For some context, that means US NatGas is now trading at $124 per barrel oil equivalent - more expensive than UK gas currently...

2022-04-14_12-31-23.jpg?itok=7l6YhEAu

Source: Bloomberg

Gold surged up to one month highs...

2022-04-14_12-50-38.jpg?itok=mHu2Qh9u

Ags also returned to their meltup this week as Putin seemed to hint at more pain to come. Corn soared to multi-year highs...

2022-04-14_12-51-34.jpg?itok=ZzZ1Zz18

Finally, Happy Easter, and let's hope this analog breaks down soon...

2022-04-14_11-34-16.jpg?itok=j-BONRrD

Source: Bloomberg

Can an approval rating go negative?

2022-04-13_17-32-50_0.jpg?itok=Z8FjzVpv

Source: Bloomberg

We're gonna need someone/something else to blame!

 
 

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Just now, Tom Nolan said:

And NatGas soaring even more...

2022-04-14_12-27-17.jpg?itok=fh5dE9Uf

For some context, that means US NatGas is now trading at $124 per barrel oil equivalent - more expensive than UK gas currently...

2022-04-14_12-31-23.jpg?itok=7l6YhEAu

And NatGas soaring even more...

2022-04-14_12-27-17.jpg?itok=fh5dE9Uf

For some context, that means US NatGas is now trading at $124 per barrel oil equivalent - more expensive than UK gas currently...

2022-04-14_12-31-23.jpg?itok=7l6YhEAu

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/27265-natural-gas-trading-picks-up-considerably-amid-high-volatility-by-charles-kennedy-and-is-us-natgas-futures-dramatically-overbought-at-the-635-range/

 

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Commodity Chaos Is Threatening The Global Economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Commodity-Chaos-Is-Threatening-The-Global-Economy.html

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 14, 2022, 5:00 PM CDT

  • Global supply of key food and energy commodities is starting to impact the global economy. 
  • Rising core inflation and hawkish Central Bank policy could further impact economic growth.
  • The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020.

Businesses and consumers are already feeling the impact of the rally in commodity prices of everything from crude oil to grains and metals. The year’s highly volatile commodity markets, roiled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are complicating real-world economic growth prospects and are raising food and energy prices for consumers globally.  The surge in commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, wheat, soybeans, and industrial and precious metals, have already hit consumer prices globally, with inflation at a 40-year high. This has prompted the Fed to start raising interest rates to tame inflation, with more rate hikes expected in the coming months.  

Commodity Inventories “Critically Low” 

Globally, the supply of commodities of all kinds is lower than the demand. 

“Inventories across energy, agricultural and metals are critically low everywhere,” Tracey Allen, commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, told Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal. JPMorgan sees commodity prices staying elevated through the end of next year.  

The supply of commodities could head even lower if the Russian war in Ukraine disrupts more materially exports of energy products out of Russia and/or wheat and corn exports out of Ukraine, the so-called “breadbasket of Europe”, as it is one of the world’s top exporters of corn, wheat, and vegetable oils. Reduced exports of Ukrainian agricultural commodities could raise food insecurity in many countries in South Asia, Western Asia, and Africa, IHS Markit said last month. 

Related: Yergin: Europe Gears Up To Sanctions Russian Energy Supplies
Over the past three years, Russia and Ukraine combined accounted for around 30 percent and 20 percent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively, the UN said last week when it noted that the war resulted in a fresh all-time high in global food prices. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6 percent from February, when it had already reached its highest level since its inception in 1990, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. The FAO Food Price Index tracks monthly changes in the prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities. Last month’s prices were 33.6 percent higher overall compared to March last year. 

“The prospect of continued supply disruptions from Ukraine this year together with US and South American weather concerns as well as the mentioned rise in the cost of fuel and fertilizers will likely lead to another year of tightening supply,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a weekly commodity market update last week. 

The commodities sector overall saw the best quarter ever in Q1 2022, Hansen noted. 

“During the first quarter, war and sanctions turbocharged an already strong performing sector, resulting in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index registering a 24% gain, its best quarter in living memory, thereby almost eclipsing the 2021 gain of 26.5%, the best annual performance since 2000,” he said. 

Speculators Pull Out Of Oil & Gas Markets 

“The war in Ukraine and increasingly tough sanctions against Russia have uprooted multiple supply channels from crude oil and gas to key industrial metals as well as food commodities such as wheat, corn, and edible oils,” Hansen says. 

The market turmoil in commodities, the extreme volatility, and the futures exchanges raising initial margins significantly after Putin’s war in Ukraine began have led to an exodus of speculators from oil futures. The lower liquidity in the paper oil market exacerbated the volatility to the point of some traders saying in March that “the market is untradeable.” 

The high margin requirements raised the liquidity needs of commodity trading firms, which trade physical barrels around the world. Via futures contracts in commodities, trading houses hedge against risks. Without commodity derivatives, many traders would not be able to move physical volumes of oil.    

Related: How Egypt Could Become A Critical Energy Hub

“We need a fully-functioning commodities futures market and what we’ve observed is a decrease in open interest. Assuming the situation does not normalise, there will be consequences of this inefficient futures market into physical,” Christophe Salmon, CFO at Trafigura, said at the FT Commodities Global Summit last month.

The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020, pushing 62 percent higher than its average during the last business cycle, Jim Glassman, Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial Banking at JPMorgan, said this week.

Even if peace is reached in Ukraine, markets are likely to price in political risks for commodities such as oil, wheat, corn, nickel, and palladium, according to the economist.  

“Futures markets anticipate oil prices to remain elevated for years,” Glassman noted. 

Consumers are already feeling the pinch from high energy prices because oil price spikes almost immediately lead to higher prices at the pump.

“For every $42 rise in the price of a barrel of crude oil, the average household will spend an extra $500 annually on gasoline,” JP Morgan’s Glassman says. 

Businesses dependent on raw materials and transportation could find the coming months challenging. If the rising cost of commodities and oil starts to spill over into core inflation, this could compel the Fed to plan more interest rate hikes, which could cool the economy, the economist noted. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

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2 minutes ago, Tom Nolan said:

Commodity Chaos Is Threatening The Global Economy

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Commodity-Chaos-Is-Threatening-The-Global-Economy.html

By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 14, 2022, 5:00 PM CDT

  • Global supply of key food and energy commodities is starting to impact the global economy. 
  • Rising core inflation and hawkish Central Bank policy could further impact economic growth.
  • The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020.

Businesses and consumers are already feeling the impact of the rally in commodity prices of everything from crude oil to grains and metals. The year’s highly volatile commodity markets, roiled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are complicating real-world economic growth prospects and are raising food and energy prices for consumers globally.  The surge in commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, wheat, soybeans, and industrial and precious metals, have already hit consumer prices globally, with inflation at a 40-year high. This has prompted the Fed to start raising interest rates to tame inflation, with more rate hikes expected in the coming months.  

Commodity Inventories “Critically Low” 

Globally, the supply of commodities of all kinds is lower than the demand. 

“Inventories across energy, agricultural and metals are critically low everywhere,” Tracey Allen, commodities strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co, told Ryan Dezember of The Wall Street Journal. JPMorgan sees commodity prices staying elevated through the end of next year.  

The supply of commodities could head even lower if the Russian war in Ukraine disrupts more materially exports of energy products out of Russia and/or wheat and corn exports out of Ukraine, the so-called “breadbasket of Europe”, as it is one of the world’s top exporters of corn, wheat, and vegetable oils. Reduced exports of Ukrainian agricultural commodities could raise food insecurity in many countries in South Asia, Western Asia, and Africa, IHS Markit said last month. 

Related: Yergin: Europe Gears Up To Sanctions Russian Energy Supplies
Over the past three years, Russia and Ukraine combined accounted for around 30 percent and 20 percent of global wheat and maize exports, respectively, the UN said last week when it noted that the war resulted in a fresh all-time high in global food prices. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 159.3 points in March, up 12.6 percent from February, when it had already reached its highest level since its inception in 1990, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said. The FAO Food Price Index tracks monthly changes in the prices of a basket of commonly traded food commodities. Last month’s prices were 33.6 percent higher overall compared to March last year. 

“The prospect of continued supply disruptions from Ukraine this year together with US and South American weather concerns as well as the mentioned rise in the cost of fuel and fertilizers will likely lead to another year of tightening supply,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said in a weekly commodity market update last week. 

The commodities sector overall saw the best quarter ever in Q1 2022, Hansen noted. 

“During the first quarter, war and sanctions turbocharged an already strong performing sector, resulting in the Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index registering a 24% gain, its best quarter in living memory, thereby almost eclipsing the 2021 gain of 26.5%, the best annual performance since 2000,” he said. 

Speculators Pull Out Of Oil & Gas Markets 

“The war in Ukraine and increasingly tough sanctions against Russia have uprooted multiple supply channels from crude oil and gas to key industrial metals as well as food commodities such as wheat, corn, and edible oils,” Hansen says. 

The market turmoil in commodities, the extreme volatility, and the futures exchanges raising initial margins significantly after Putin’s war in Ukraine began have led to an exodus of speculators from oil futures. The lower liquidity in the paper oil market exacerbated the volatility to the point of some traders saying in March that “the market is untradeable.” 

The high margin requirements raised the liquidity needs of commodity trading firms, which trade physical barrels around the world. Via futures contracts in commodities, trading houses hedge against risks. Without commodity derivatives, many traders would not be able to move physical volumes of oil.    

Related: How Egypt Could Become A Critical Energy Hub

“We need a fully-functioning commodities futures market and what we’ve observed is a decrease in open interest. Assuming the situation does not normalise, there will be consequences of this inefficient futures market into physical,” Christophe Salmon, CFO at Trafigura, said at the FT Commodities Global Summit last month.

The Global Price Index of All Commodities has more than doubled since its pandemic low in Q2 2020, pushing 62 percent higher than its average during the last business cycle, Jim Glassman, Managing Director and Head Economist for Commercial Banking at JPMorgan, said this week.

Even if peace is reached in Ukraine, markets are likely to price in political risks for commodities such as oil, wheat, corn, nickel, and palladium, according to the economist.  

“Futures markets anticipate oil prices to remain elevated for years,” Glassman noted. 

Consumers are already feeling the pinch from high energy prices because oil price spikes almost immediately lead to higher prices at the pump.

“For every $42 rise in the price of a barrel of crude oil, the average household will spend an extra $500 annually on gasoline,” JP Morgan’s Glassman says. 

Businesses dependent on raw materials and transportation could find the coming months challenging. If the rising cost of commodities and oil starts to spill over into core inflation, this could compel the Fed to plan more interest rate hikes, which could cool the economy, the economist noted. 

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

I have said this repeatedly in the past.  I will say it again.

It is my contention (the short version)…

EUROPE and its coming destruction.

The first step is to destroy Europe.  It is by design. That WILL OCCUR…Europe will be in shambles during the coming years.   The U.N. is a dynamic tool of the World Economic Forum.  This Ukraine-Russia crisis emphasized by the United States is designed to facilitate the destruction of Europe.

In the beginning, the U.S. will appear to benefit especially as its currency remains dominant with no threat as a result of trading partners such as Germany and Russia who might exchange mutual currencies.

The Ukraine-Russia crisis needs to occur now, prior to the destruction of European currencies when The Federal Reserve raises rates.  This crisis destroys any viable energy source within economic reason putting the population under tremendous financial hardship.

People should realize that The European Parliament is impotent.  Nation Members of EU Parliament have no real powers…look it up and understand their structure.  It was by design.   And also grasp that tied to the EURO currency there have been negative interest rates but also mandates that Pension Funds must own these type of bonds. (the imminent destruction of pension funds)   The insane Energy Policies of Europe have not been ordained by rational thinking, but by deceptive influence from powerful interests.

Anyone can put 2 + 2 together to forecast the coming decade.  What will happen to European currency and the economy when The Federal Reserve raises interest rates?  What will happen to prices when the European energy sector is in shambles?

The famous quote of the 4th Industrial Revolution of the World Economic Forum for predictions of the year 2030 is  “You will own nothing and be happy”.

The global policies from the Covid-19 Pandemic were not about trying to help people’s health, but they were about deceptively installing control factors upon the populace.  The installed control factors are already there.

Eventually, there will be Central Bank currencies which will be tied to a person's Digital ID.  All their money will be tied to this Digital ID.  Just like ESG for corporations, the Digital IDs will have a "social score".  If an individual gets out of line from the official narrative, their score will go down.  Their money can be turned off, just like what happened in Canada recently with thousands of personal bank accounts locked.

There is much more to this agenda.  If you read the documents at the World Economic Forum, they tell you the plans.

It is… 3-D Chess not the 2-D Chess of Ukraine-Russia - What is actually coming during this decade…

https://community.oilprice.com/topic/28061-putin’s-war-set-to-cost-europe-twice-as-much-as-covid-in-2020-via-oilpricecom-zerohedge-by-michael-kern/#comment-183994

 

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"The West Needs WWIII" - Martin Armstrong Warns "There's No Return To Normal Here"

Tyler Durden's Photo
by Tyler Durden
Thursday, Apr 14, 2022 - 09:00 PM

Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,

Legendary financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong thinks the New World Order’s so-called “Great Reset” plan for humanity now needs war to try and make it work. 

Martin-Armstrong-4.12.22-Pic-300x263.png

It could happen in the next few weeks. 

Armstrong explains, “What they are trying to do is deliberately poke the bear..."

"They are increasing the pressure on just about everything under the sun.  The West needs World War III.  They just need it.  The real problem here is they went to negative interest rates in 2014 in Europe.  They have been unable to stimulate the economy, and Keynesian economics have completely failed...

I would say this is mismanagement of government on a global scale.  The problem is that central banks have no control over the economy. 

Add to this, this type of inflation is substantially different than a speculative boom.  This inflation is based upon shortages.  These morons with covid... with lockdowns, ended up destroying the supply chains...

Things that are there, I buy extra of because next time it might be gone.  So, everybody is increasing their hoarding...

So, what we have with Europe, with its negative interest rates, they have wiped out all the pension funds.  They need 8% to break even, not negative rates.  There is not a pension fund in Europe that is solvent at this stage of the game. . . . The European government is collapsing.  If they end up defaulting, you are going to have millions of people down there with pitch forks storming the parliament.  So, to avoid that, they need war...

The Biden Administration has deliberately destroyed the world economy.”

If there is war in Europe, the “U.S. dollar will get stronger initially and not weaker” according to Armstrong.  Armstrong also says,

“This is all deliberate.  There is no return to normal here.  Unfortunately, this is where we are headed.”

Armstrong contends, war in Europe could break out in a couple of weeks, and the EU and NATO are pushing this.  Armstrong says,

“They want Russia to do something. . . . This thing with Russia is the same thing all over again.  Unfortunately, we are headed for war.”

Armstrong also talks in detail about the following subjects:  Digital currency and why the Deep State is pushing so hard for it; gold, silver, food and just about everything going way up in price because of shortages.

Armstrong recommends that people “stockpile two years of food.”  Armstrong has other tips for what the common man needs to stock up on; Armstrong also says President Trump is the only President he knew that cared about U.S. soldiers dying in combat.  This is why Trump wanted to bring the troops home, and the Deep State warmongers hated him for it. 

Armstrong also gives his predictions on who wins the midterm election this coming November.  Will it matter which party comes out on top?

In closing, Armstrong says,

“We are not getting back to normal.  The system is crumbling from within, and it’s just like the fall of Rome, basically."

  (There is much more in the nearly 1 hour interview.)

Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with Martin Armstrong cycle expert and author of the popular book “Manipulating the World Economy,” for 4.12.22.

[VIDEO INTERVIEW]

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ 

Glenn Greenwald is a pretty famous "mainstream" dude...

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2022/04/no_author/western-dissent-from-us-nato-policy-on-ukraine-is-small-yet-the-censorship-campaign-is-extreme/

Western Dissent from US/NATO Policy on Ukraine Is Small, Yet the Censorship Campaign Is Extreme

 

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(edited)

I like to watch training about cryptocurrency because it's an actual topic, and I inform myself and, at the same time, benefit from pieces of advice. But now we can see a major decline in bitcoin, and it doesn't make sense to invest in it. You'd rather lose as much as you win. Honestly, I thought to try, but something else caught my attention, plus it's not so risky. I'm talking about companies that specialize in precious metals, like gold. I wasn't 100% sure, so I read some reviews on https://goldtrends.net/augusta-precious-metals-review/ . Actually, it helped me a lot, and it was easier to choose the corporation.

Edited by KenziMac

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https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Why-Are-Big-Oil-Execs-Dumping-Millions-Of-Dollars-Worth-Of-Stock.html

Why Are Big Oil Execs Dumping Millions Of Dollars Worth Of Stock?

By Irina Slav - Apr 24, 2022, 6:00 PM CDT

  • Big Oil executives are reportedly dumping tens of millions of dollars worth of company shares.
  • Some speculate that an oil price decline may be on the horizon.
  • "Historically, oil executives are really good at getting maximum value from selling stock at the right time.” 

Senator Elizabeth Warren and her fellow Big Oil critics may have finally got some literal proof that the oil industry benefits directly from the imbalance of supply and demand: Big Oil executives are selling shares in their companies worth millions.

According to calculations made by Bloomberg, the chief executive of Hess Corp. alone sold stock worth $85 million in the first quarter in several deals, while the head of Marathon Oil sold $34.3 million. For the industry overall, more executives sold than bought shares in their companies, according to figures from Verify Data, cited by Bloomberg.

Perhaps this will add fuel to Senator Warren's crusade against Big Oil. The senator is accusing Big Oil of holding back production growth to keep prices at the pump high and line their own pockets. Earlier this year, Sen. Warren was among the sponsors of a bill proposing a windfall tax for Big Oil companies because of the profits they made from the increase in international prices.

Lawmakers didn't stop there, either. Earlier this month, the House Energy and Commerce Committee summoned the chief executives of a dozen Big Oil companies in a hearing titled "Gouged at the Gas Station: Big Oil and America's Pain at the Pump."

Big Oil explained that it is not producers that set retail fuel prices across filling stations and returned the ball to the legislators' court by attributing the higher oil prices to restrictive energy policies on the part of the Biden administration and the war in Ukraine. Shortages of various sorts were also cited as reasons for the oil price rally that is giving Democrats a headache.

Yet the news of Big Oil executives selling millions of dollars worth of shares might be considered good news by congressional Democrats and the White House. According to Bloomberg, the selling could signify that a price decline is on the horizon.

According to the report on the stock sales, executives often step up sales of their own stock when they expect the price of this stock to decline. The most immediate cause for a decline in oil stocks is typically a decline in oil prices. The question is where this decline would come from.

The war in Ukraine does not look like it will be over soon, and the European Union is discussing an oil embargo against Russia under pressure from the Ukrainian government. Currently, the bloc is conducting an impact assessment of such an embargo in a bid to win over the hesitant members, the biggest among which is Germany—a large oil and an even larger gas importer from Russia.

It would be safe to say that any oil embargo is unlikely to be introduced in the next couple of weeks, so that's one tailwind for oil prices that will make an appearance later in the year, if at all.

However, in the meantime, Russian oil output is falling because of the sanctions. What this means for global markets is that less oil is going to those who need it, except the two biggest and most populous Asian economies, which are gobbling up cheap Russian crude.

"Historically, oil executives are really good at getting maximum value from selling stock at the right time," Ben Silverman, head of research at VerityData, told Bloomberg in an interview. "The message is that the cycle here isn't going to be a long one."

A message there may well be, but the question remains: how will oil prices fall? U.S. producers remain cautious about their production growth plans; Brazil has big ambitions, but these take time to materialize; the UK is warming up to the idea of more local oil production, but it will not be in any quantities big enough to move international prices.

The Iran deal remains stuck—the latest update was about the Iranian side rejecting a sanction relief proposal made by the U.S. side. The cherry on top of the price cake was how the Saudi Crown Prince literally yelled at Biden's national security adviser this week and told him that Washington could forget about the Saudis boosting oil output to lower prices.

So, no Iranian oil is coming. No OPEC oil is coming either. U.S. output is rising but slowly and will add less than 1 million bpd this year. Smaller producers could ramp up, but it remains to be seen whether they can ramp up as fast as the Saudis and the Emiratis potentially could. The answer is most likely no.

In other words, typically, Big Oil executives selling their own stock might mean that the end of the price rally is near. In this case, however, there may well be other reasons for the sales, such as the Fed's rate hike plans, which are getting increasingly aggressive amid continuing inflation pressure. Aggressive monetary policy leads to higher borrowing costs, and higher borrowing costs are bad news for any business and for its stock.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Moody’s Forecasts Record Oil And Gas Profits, Free Cash Flow

By Charles Kennedy - Apr 25, 2022, 4:30 PM CDT

Moody’s Investor Service has upgraded its outlook for the global energy industry from “neutral” to “positive”, forecasting “record profit and free cash flow” for exploration and production companies in 2022, thanks to a combination of strong commodity prices and spending discipline. 

The ratings agency expects oil and gas supply constraints to keep prices high for twelve to eighteen months. 

Beyond that, Moody’s said the “pace of improvement” with regard to earnings will start to slow by next year.

It’s not only exploration and production companies that are expected to show earnings boosts this year, either. 

Moody’s says the bulk of integrated oil and gas companies will see impressive boosts, specifically pointing out increased refining earnings for this year. 

Oilfield services companies are likewise expected to benefit on the balance sheet, but Moody’s says the smaller North American onshore service companies will enjoy the biggest earnings growth. 

Also on Monday, Reuters reported strong first-quarter earnings expectations for U.S. oil refiners thanks to improved margins that have benefitted from tight supply caused by Russia’s war with Ukraine. 

Citing IBES data from Refinitive, Reuters reports that a total of seven independent refiners in the United States are expected to post earnings-per-share of 61 cents. That is a dramatic comeback for refiners that posted losses per share exceeding $1.30 in the first quarter of last year. 

The heating oil crack spread, according to Retuers, has now hit close to $41 per barrel (as of end-March), while profit margins for diesel and jet fuel have been at multi-year highs since the beginning of this year–and still rising. 

Global refining capacity has been declining since the pandemic, forcing refinery closures that sustain that downward trend, while at the same time, rising fuel demand is making margins for refiners very attractive. 

By Charles Kennedy for Oilprice.com

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The Oil And Gas Industry Is Booming Despite Net-Zero Ambitions

By Irina Slav - Apr 25, 2022, 7:00 PM CDT

  • Oil and natural gas investments are on the rise despite the global push toward renewable energy.
  • The global transition to green energy will need the help of fossil fuels to meet soaring energy demand. 
  • “We need fossil energy as part of this transition. This is a long transition. This is not overnight.”

Both the European Union and the United States are firmly on the path to a net-zero economy. This much has been made clear by officials from both sides of the Atlantic despite the EU’s hunt for more gas and the Biden administration’s calls for more oil production.

Yet before net-zero is achieved—if it is ever achieved—both the EU and the US will need more fossil fuels, including coal. And this means that despite calls for more renewables from both governments and the renewable energy industry, despite the active demonization of the fossil fuel industry, investments in more oil, gas, and coal production are likely to rise—at least in the short term.

A recent report from Reclaim Finance, an anti-fossil fuel campaign organization, for instance, named and shamed asset managers investing in oil, gas, and coal. According to the report, 30 of the world’s leading asset managers had $82 billion invested in companies developing new coal supply, and $468 billion in 12 major oil and gas companies.

“Is the asset management industry changing its investment practices in line with climate science, reducing investments in coal, oil, or gas expansion? Unfortunately, the answer is an emphatic ‘no,’” said one of Reclaim Finance’s campaigners, Lara Cuvelier.

“Let’s be clear: drilling a new oil well or opening a new coal mine is not a normal thing to do in a widespread climate catastrophe,” the campaigner added.

Related: EU In Talks With Alternative Suppliers As It Considers A Russian Oil Ban

Unfortunately for Reclaim Finance and all other climate campaigners, drilling a new oil well or opening a new coal mine is the normal thing to do when demand for energy exceeds the available supply. And this is exactly what companies are doing in some parts of the world where climate campaigning is not such a force to be reckoned with. Even in Europe, some countries are reconsidering their climate plans, notably the UK and Germany.

The UK earlier this year reconsidered its intention to gradually suspend all oil and gas drilling in the North Sea amid an energy crunch that began last autumn, caused the price of energy to soar, and pushed millions of households into energy poverty. The change of stance from the government naturally caused protests from environmentalists.

In Germany, plans to gradually move toward a 100-percent net-zero energy system were revisited in light of potential gas shortages amid the war in Ukraine. The German government’s response to that potential danger was to plan on speedily building several import terminals for liquefied natural gas to replace Russian gas. The biggest economy in Europe and the EU, in other words, is replacing one source of fossil fuels with another, rather than replacing fossil fuels with renewables.

In the United States, a similar shift is underway. Despite the decidedly green, pro-transition agenda with which President Joe Biden came into power, now that same president is calling on all oil producers willing to lend an ear to pump more because retail fuel prices are high and there are elections to be won—or lost—in November.

The administration in the face of the president himself, the Energy Secretary, and the White House Press Secretary has repeatedly said that the transition agenda and the current calls for more oil production are not at odds because the latter is just a temporary measure until, presumably, renewables come into their own. Temporary or not, greater production will require greater investment.

“We need fossil energy as part of this transition. This is a long transition. This is not overnight,” said Keo Lukefahr, the head of energy derivatives and renewables trading at Motiva, as quoted by Bloomberg.

Not only is the transition not going to happen overnight, but it will also take a lot of effort. And investments. Last month, for instance, a CRU analyst warned the mining industry needed to invest some $100 billion in new copper mines if it was to avoid a supply deficit that could reach 4.7 million tons by 2030. All other transition metals and minerals are in potentially short supply based on demand projections. 

The situation at the moment is this: the world needs more energy than it is getting. People, for the most part, do not really care where their electricity comes from as long as it is there. And they tend to become rather unhappy when the prices of everything rise because fuels used to transport goods from one place to another are so expensive because the oil supply is tight.

It is obvious that nobody, not even the most renewable-happy EU member, can build enough wind and solar farms to eliminate the need for additional oil and gas supplies. Investment in oil and gas production, therefore, will increase despite the grim warnings of climate campaigners.

Some argue that the increase will only be needed for the medium term, but energy companies tend to plan ahead for long periods of time. If there is no point in making such a long-term commitment to additional production, they will probably not make it. If they have made this commitment, maybe they expect that demand for fossil fuels will remain steady for more than the next three or four years.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Record Insider Selling Could Signal An Oil Price Peak

By Alex Kimani - Apr 26, 2022, 9:00 AM CDT

  • More U.S. energy executives have been selling rather than buying stock at the fastest pace since 2012.
  • U.S. oil and gas executives sold shares worth $1.35 billion during the quarter, with a record number of company heads dumping their holdings.
  • Net-Insider selling is a bearish signal for oil markets.

Over the past few years, American companies have been repurchasing their own shares at a record clip, helping to fuel a raging bull market. After a brief pullback in 2020, buybacks hit a record $881.7 billion in 2021, good for a 69.6% Y/Y increase and nearly 10% higher than the previous record $806.4 billion set in 2018.

That trend shows no signs of reversing even in the current downmarket, with firms in the S&P 500 outlining buyback plans valued at $238 billion through the first two months of 2022, according to data from Goldman Sachs. The S&P is down 10.4% year-to-date compared to a 45% climb by the 21-member S&P 500 Energy Index in what is shaping up as a bear market for stocks. Companies tend to buy their own shares more when they believe they are significantly undervalued.

It is, therefore, somewhat ironic that insider selling has become rampant in one of the few bright spots in the market: the energy sector.

According to VerityData via Rigzone, more U.S. energy executives have been selling rather than buying stock in their companies at the fastest pace since 2012. Insider selling is typically viewed as being bearish for stocks because executives have better knowledge of their industry's cycles than most retail investors and are able to time their actions to harvest the most profit.

Insider Selling

According to Bloomberg calculations based on regulatory filings, Hess Corp.'s (NYSE:HES) chief executive officer John Hess sold stock worth $85 million in the first quarter, marking his largest quarterly sale since 2011. Hess is one of the largest operators in the Bakken Shale, with 800,000 net acres and net production forecast to average between 330,000 and 340,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day in 2022, excluding Libya.  Related: Bearish Momentum Grows, But Traders Remain Bullish On Crude

Interestingly, Hess is one of the companies that have been vocal in opposing a proposed carbon tax that could raise fuel prices and eventually hurt demand, but more of that later.

Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE:MRO) CEO Lee Tillman sold shares worth $34.3 million during the first quarter. 

Meanwhile, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX) CEO Mike Wirth sold $12.3 million in the quarter, the bulk of which appear to be from share options granted in 2013 that were due to expire next year. Chevron Corp. had the highest selling volume since 2008, and Marathon the most sales since at least 2004.

Overall, U.S. oil and gas executives sold shares worth $1.35 billion during the quarter, with a record number of company heads dumping their holdings.

"Historically, oil executives are really good at getting maximum value from selling stock at the right time. The message is that the cycle here isn't going to be a long one," Ben Silverman, head of research at VerityData, has told Rigzone in an interview. 

Earlier this month, Congressional Democrats accused oil bosses of "profiteering" from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has caused crude and U.S. natural gas prices to hit the highest levels since 2008. They have responded by saying they play no part in setting global oil and gas prices and pointed out that current low production volumes responsible for sky-high prices are largely in response to pressure to act on climate change.

At the House Energy and Commerce Committee on April 6, Lori Trahan, a Democrat from Massachusetts, accused executives of "profiting personally" from stock sales, and highlighted selling by Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources Co.(NYSE:PXD).

Carbon Tax

In other news, the WSJ has reported that the American Petroleum Institute has drafted a proposal urging Congress to adopt a carbon tax, although members of the biggest U.S. oil industry trade group want to delay action until after the midterm elections, fearing it could alienate Republican lawmakers.

The API proposal calls for assessing gasoline wholesalers, power plants and others a tax starting at $35-$50/ton for carbon dioxide generated by the fossil fuel they sell or use, with adjustments for inflation and other factors. The draft says a carbon tax is "the most impactful and transparent way to achieve meaningful progress on the dual goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions while simultaneously ensuring continued economic growth."

Some API members, including Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) and Equinor (NYSE:EQNR), reportedly want fast action, while U.S. Big Oil companies, including Hess, Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), and  Phillips 66 (NYSE:PSX) have said that a delay is needed to help the industry avoid political blowback because a carbon tax has become unpopular among both conservatives and liberals.

Currently,  69 countries have adopted a carbon price ranging from $1 to $139 per metric ton, but the U.S. has never had a nationwide system.  California, which nearly a decade ago introduced a carbon pricing system aimed at raising the cost of fossil fuel, recently saw gasoline prices top $6/gallon, leading to Gov. Gavin Newsom to propose giving consumers $400 tax rebates for each car they own. 

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

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