Poland signs 20-year deal on U.S. LNG supplies

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

Well, it turns out that the Poles are eager to do business with the USA and import fresh LNG supplies instead of buying gas by pipeline from Russia.  

The agreement defines basic terms and conditions of the contract which equals about 2.7 bcm following regasification. neftegaz.ru U.S.-based Venture Global LNG signed a 20-year deal for the delivery of 2 mtpa of liquefied natural gas from its Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines LNG facilities to Polish Oil & Gas Company (PGNiG).

Note also that, in the same vein, Qatar intends to supply gas directly to Ukraine.  I had previously predicted both these developments here on Oilprice.com.  It is the border States to Russia that are most concerned about being swallowed up by Putin's visions of a New Russian Empire. Thus the disentangle themselves from contracts with Russia, shut down their economic links, and create new ones with the United States - the one country with the raw power to ensure their freedom. 

[John Foote + 1,135]

As a hedge I see LNG, but I don't see how it can compete with piped gas when available. US, or Qatar, or whomever.

Being highly dependent on Russian gas is a two way straight, Russia becomes/is highly dependent on the coin. When interests are best served by making money, war tends to not happen as much. I suspect Putin wouldn't have fared much better than his predecessors, but he took power as oil prices drastically increased. So he had something the previous folks didn't have, money.

The Russians would do far better treating eastern European countries do as wealth makers. One advantage of relatively small western militaries is the Russians can't be threatened by them. The Russians historically view eastern European countries as buffer states. The invasions have come from the West, not the East. Small comfort if you are a Eastern European country who get slammed both way.

I am no fan of Russia, I'm appalled by the lack of response with Russia appropriating pieces of Georgia. I bet the Ukraine wish they kept their nukes, but the time they were friends of Russia, not the West, and it's unfortunately the pro-western government was truly corrupt. But Russians aren't the strong military we think they are. If the US is willing to, it can spank them back. But of course any direct confrontation risks escalations that could end us all. 

 

Edited September 23, 2018 by John Foote
mispelleings

[Epic + 390]

Someone will have to correct me if I am wrong, but it sure seems to me like Poland is one of America's best allies, and yet America seems to ignore them most of the time.  It makes me feel kind of bad for the Poles.  They sure seem like great people over there.  

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

1 hour ago, Epic said:

Someone will have to correct me if I am wrong, but it sure seems to me like Poland is one of America's best allies, and yet America seems to ignore them most of the time.  It makes me feel kind of bad for the Poles.  They sure seem like great people over there.  

My sentiments exactly, Epic.  Donald made a lot of waves some months back when he threatened to close bases in Germany and move them to Poland.  Or expand existing Poland bases ( I don't recall the details).  The Poles were even offering great cost sharing and savings and, most importantly, a great desire to welcome the U.S. with open arms and show appreciation that played right into Trump's ego.  Haven't heard much since those days, but let's hope the U.S. is doing things to increase our partnership with Poland.

[DanilKa + 443]

says 20-30% cheaper than Russian gas here https://ria.ru/economy/20181017/1530833099.html?inj=1

Different subjects but suitable words by Foreign Minister... Miller & Co are bunch of f. morons, blew lucrative European market and keep loosing market share.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

I am from Poland- I dont want to be rude but thats  literally bullshit lng may be actually cheaper than russian pipe gas. You can read polish sites but not articles - you should read a lot of comments where people generally agree with me.

Sorry quite good information for final users in Poland imho would be if lng was after all full costs included only 30% more expensive. More expensive not cheaper.

Thats why any other country in Central Europe like Czech Republik, Slovakia Hungary or Bulgaria is not interested in lng. They all wait for NS2 or Turkish Stream. 

Mr Wozniak is also well-known for having strange ideas. He is politician not some from energy industry who spent last 20 years on fight with Gazprom. Final result was that in 2010 thanks to polish negotiators incompetence and war with Gazprom  we spent a couple of billions $ on more expensive russian gas because of very tough situation before winter season and lack of gas. Orlen additionaly lost about  5 bilions $ on Mozejki rafinery.

What we also know?

For the time being we have longterm contract with Qatar -unoficial price is 16% of brent price  plus 0.5 per mbbtu. So now about 480 $-probably the most expensive gas delivered to Europe.

Apart from that as you probably know from newspapers unfortunaltely now we have in Poland a rather populist goverment which try to make Poland a lot more authoritarian state. If you really want to help dont cooperate with them for the time being untill they loose power in next elections. One reason for that maybe be a fact that in recent times US foreign policy is less  popular in Poland and not  just because of Trump but also Iraq, Libya, Syria and support for radical forces in Ukraine. You should read also about Us Senate 447 law about jewish property in Poland or recent visit of president Duda which was rather a humililiation for lot of polish people. So a very close relation between USA and Poland is nowadays seen in quite a lot less enthusiastic way in comparison lets say with 10 or 20 years ago- polish society is more pragmatic and there is more and more often significant amount of criticism especially ofor no major reaction from Washington for current polish internal situation.

I would like to add that Gazprom this year will export about 205 bilions meters of gas. In 2013 they exported 138. So they are actually  increasing not loosing market share.

 

 

Edited October 18, 2018 by Tomasz