Ukraine gas

[NickW + 2,714]

On 4/11/2022 at 7:48 PM, nsdp said:

With the destruction Ukraine has suffered in the last 7 weeks, I doubt that Ukraine will ever buy another GJ of NG from Russia again.  40% from other sources will be sufficient while they rebuild.  That gives Cypress and Lebanon sufficient time to build an under sea pipeline around Turkey to Greece and access through Bulgaria and Romania.

Putin has just cut off another source of income.  Plus losing customers down stream on his pipeline through Ukraine.  Real Genius

I was reading an article from the IEEE (Inst of Elec engineers) that said if Europe accepted a 14 deg C household temp next winter it would completely negate the need to import any Russian gas. 

14 Deg C is cool but doable and not freeze to death territory. We commonly have our thermo at 16 Deg C and find this quite acceptable

[Eric Gagen + 713]

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Are you suggesting Gazprom cant operate or increase production out of Sakhalin or the Chayanda field because they dont have the expertise?

This just isnt correct.

Chayanda has the ability on its own to supply 38bcm to China if they wish, no need for Western companies expertise whatsover.

"The full capacity of the 1,420 mm (56 in) pipeline would be up to 61 billion m³ (2.2 trillion cu ft) per annum of natural gas,^[5][19] of which 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum are supplied to China.^[20][21] The export to China starts with 5 billion m³ (180 billion cu ft) per annum in 2020, and is expected to increase gradually to 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum by 2025.^[22]

Wikipedia says Chayanda has a planned capacity of 25 bcm/yr not 38.  Have any data on that?  It also doesn’t indicate if the field has actually been developed yet, or if it’s still in the planning stages.  25 bcm/yr isn’t very close to 61 bcm/yr.  Enough to be an ‘anchor’ field for the pipeline but not to meet full capacity at all.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Eric Gagen said:

Wikipedia says Chayanda has a planned capacity of 25 bcm/yr not 38.  Have any data on that?  It also doesn’t indicate if the field has actually been developed yet, or if it’s still in the planning stages.  25 bcm/yr isn’t very close to 61 bcm/yr.  Enough to be an ‘anchor’ field for the pipeline but not to meet full capacity at all.

The  Kovykta  field is also to be connected to the pipeline. Both fields are being developed in conjunction with the pipeline.

Deliveries via Sila Sibiri have been scheduled to increase to the contracted level of 38 billion cubic metres per year after 2025 following the full commissioning of a gas processing plant in Russia’s Amur region, close to border with China.

Gazprom also has to bring online a pipeline link between Chayanda and the Kovykta gas field, which is its next development targe

There have been some concerns that the construction and commissioning of the Amur facility's remaining uncompleted trains could be jeopardised if sanctions could halt supplies of hi-tech processing equipment and technology to Russia.

The Amur processing facility aims to remove helium and other off-spec hydrocarbons from the mixture of gas that will arrive from both fields before being sent onwards to China.

According to localreports, Amur regional authorities have acknowledged the possibility of “temporary difficulties” at the plant and other related infrastructure projects due to sanctions, and said they will not insist on agreed commissioning deadlines.

https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/gazprom-restores-gas-flows-to-china-but-faces-antitrust-moves-in-germany/2-1-1196845

[Ron Wagner + 710]

On 4/12/2022 at 1:03 PM, Michael Sanches said:

India and China will buy all the oil and NG Russia has to sell.

Probably, but they may be shunned to some extent if they do. They also will probably get far lower prices than they would have and be happy to get what they can. They have made themselves an uncomfortable bed to sleep in. Bad karma sucks. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 4/11/2022 at 11:35 AM, Tomasz said:

It looks for me rather strange that you fight biggest war in Europe after 1945 and you still give oil to your enemy.

Dont you think so?

Russia can't stop sending oil and gas to Europe, all the West Russian pipelines run in that direction and there's no where else it can go in volume since Russia has no deep water ports able to handle supertankers.

If it doesn't go to Europe it stays in the ground and restarting frozen oil fields is problematic to say the least. Russia is still sending oil and gas to Europe via Ukraine because it has no choice.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 4/13/2022 at 1:41 AM, Rob Plant said:

Jay the Russia to China pipeline has been in the offing since 2014.

It will be in situ in 2-3 years which isnt that long

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-russia-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source-2022-02-04/

They still can't pipe oil or gas from western Russia to China or India, there's no working distribution system. Pipelines lock you into a preordained customer base, if those customers look elsewhere you have a bunch of useless infrastructure. According to Peter Zeihan it would take over 10 years to install pipelines, very expensive pipelines, to take West Russian oil/gas to East Asia.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

54 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

They still can't pipe oil or gas from western Russia to China or India, there's no working distribution system. Pipelines lock you into a preordained customer base, if those customers look elsewhere you have a bunch of useless infrastructure. According to Peter Zeihan it would take over 10 years to install pipelines, very expensive pipelines, to take West Russian oil/gas to East Asia.

There are two oil pipelines that connect western Russia. The ESPO at 700K bpd has been at max capacity for several years. It connects to China and the port at Vladivostock. The Atasu is 400K bpd, of which 200K is from Russia. The big energy agreement touted at the olympics is surprisingly small, just 10bcm of new gas and no new oil.

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/espo-crude-oil-pipeline.html

What oil and natural gas supply deals were signed during Putin’s visit to Beijing in February?

Chinese and Russian companies signed two agreements.

Gazprom signed a long-term agreement with CNPC for the supply of 10 bcm of natural gas per year through a new pipeline from Russia to China.[12] Natural gas will be sourced from the Russian Far East, probably Sakhalin-3. New gas sales reportedly will be settled in euros in an effort to diversify away from payments in US dollars.[13] Gazprom and CNPC did not mention the agreement’s duration or when deliveries will start. However, Reuters reported the agreement will run for 30 years with the first gas delivery in two to three years.[14]

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, agreed to deliver 200,000 bpd of crude oil to CNPC over 10 years through the Kazakhstan-China pipeline (Atasu).[15] The pipeline’s capacity is 400,000 bpd, of which only 20,000 bpd is used by Kazakhstan.[16] The new contract extends a supply agreement that expires in 2023.[17]

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/qa/qa-china-russia-energy-relations-will-new-oil-and-natural-gas-deals-help-russia-weather-economic

The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, commissioned in 2006 by Kazakhstan-China Pipeline Company, has a designed capacity of 400,000 b/d. The pipeline has previously been used to transport oil from Russia to mainland China. During 2014-16, 140,000 b/d of Russian crude was sent to mainland China, and also during 2017-21 as 200,000 b/d of Russian crude was sent to mainland China. 

Edited April 14, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Ron Wagner + 710]

1 hour ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

They still can't pipe oil or gas from western Russia to China or India, there's no working distribution system. Pipelines lock you into a preordained customer base, if those customers look elsewhere you have a bunch of useless infrastructure. According to Peter Zeihan it would take over 10 years to install pipelines, very expensive pipelines, to take West Russian oil/gas to East Asia.

China can buy oil and natural gas anywhere and they can afford it. They may decide that Russian oil is too expensive in political currency. The same applies to India. The difference is that China can afford the investment a lot more easily than India can. 

Regarding the timeline, those pipelines can be easily attacked by any group of rebels that may pop up. Oil can also be stolen as in Nigeria. If it takes a lot of time to complete the work then oil supply may have grown worldwide, along with renewable energy, electric cars, etc. Also coal may still be used heavily in both China and India. 

[Ron Wagner + 710]

On 4/12/2022 at 1:46 PM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Oddly enough that I do understand, to be frank that commentary would be a foundational principle for many US ethnicity jokes made many yrs ago. 

 

You are talking about intra-city fighting not barbaric bloody war. That takes decades to get going but here we are good buds with Japanese, Germans, and do the most business with China which is our main competitor and is seeking to replace us as hegemon while buying up prominent people and property worldwide. Their onslaught is the most impressive in history. We have allowed ourselves to sell out to our chief competitor. That means we need a major U-Turn!

I forgot to mention that we fought and died against Chinese forces in Korea and Vietnam and that North Korea is a puppet state that could not exist without China's support, and that includes their military assistance. 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Ron Wagner
addition

[nsdp + 449]

On 4/11/2022 at 4:59 PM, Starschy said:

Cypress and Lebanon are you crazy. The don't have money or other Resources to buy a pipeline. Lebanon has no money not even for heating.

No , you are crazy or uneducated or both. . You forget the development goals of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.  this would be a priority one project with a 50/50 split on costs.

Edited April 15, 2022 by nsdp
wrong bank.

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

On 4/14/2022 at 12:35 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

There are two oil pipelines that connect western Russia. The ESPO at 700K bpd has been at max capacity for several years. It connects to China and the port at Vladivostock. The Atasu is 400K bpd, of which 200K is from Russia. The big energy agreement touted at the olympics is surprisingly small, just 10bcm of new gas and no new oil.

https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/espo-crude-oil-pipeline.html

What oil and natural gas supply deals were signed during Putin’s visit to Beijing in February?

Chinese and Russian companies signed two agreements.

Gazprom signed a long-term agreement with CNPC for the supply of 10 bcm of natural gas per year through a new pipeline from Russia to China.[12] Natural gas will be sourced from the Russian Far East, probably Sakhalin-3. New gas sales reportedly will be settled in euros in an effort to diversify away from payments in US dollars.[13] Gazprom and CNPC did not mention the agreement’s duration or when deliveries will start. However, Reuters reported the agreement will run for 30 years with the first gas delivery in two to three years.[14]

Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil producer, agreed to deliver 200,000 bpd of crude oil to CNPC over 10 years through the Kazakhstan-China pipeline (Atasu).[15] The pipeline’s capacity is 400,000 bpd, of which only 20,000 bpd is used by Kazakhstan.[16] The new contract extends a supply agreement that expires in 2023.[17]

https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/research/qa/qa-china-russia-energy-relations-will-new-oil-and-natural-gas-deals-help-russia-weather-economic

The Atasu-Alashankou pipeline, commissioned in 2006 by Kazakhstan-China Pipeline Company, has a designed capacity of 400,000 b/d. The pipeline has previously been used to transport oil from Russia to mainland China. During 2014-16, 140,000 b/d of Russian crude was sent to mainland China, and also during 2017-21 as 200,000 b/d of Russian crude was sent to mainland China. 

Here's the pipeline vid, some go east but the main volumes go west and cannot be redirected without great cost, effort and time. From what he's saying it becomes a stranded asset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AZx6gajU1M

 

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

1 hour ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Here's the pipeline vid, some go east but the main volumes go west and cannot be redirected without great cost, effort and time. From what he's saying it becomes a stranded asset.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AZx6gajU1M

 

I agree that they can't shift all that Europe destined oil and gas to China and India for many years. But take Zeihan with a grain of salt, he says a lot of things that sound good but aren't correct. In the video you posted he claims that the Russian Black Sea oil port is shutdown because of insurance but it isn't. A storm caused it to decrease output but it is still operational https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/russia-targets-caspian-pipeline-with-unscheduled-inspections/2-1-1201953

In his most recent video about the Moskva sinking he talks at length about how the Russians can't reinforce the Black Sea because other forces are too far away. He is apparently clueless that Moskva's two sister ships and other combat vessels were sent to the Med before the war and are still there.

Edited April 16, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[Boat + 1,324]

On 4/14/2022 at 6:47 PM, Ron Wagner said:

You are talking about intra-city fighting not barbaric bloody war. That takes decades to get going but here we are good buds with Japanese, Germans, and do the most business with China which is our main competitor and is seeking to replace us as hegemon while buying up prominent people and property worldwide. Their onslaught is the most impressive in history. We have allowed ourselves to sell out to our chief competitor. That means we need a major U-Turn!

The best way to fight energy prices is to have distributed production. Make your own parts with printer. Use the sun and wind for energy. The idea is keep it local as much as possible. Green house gardening is growing, you know, all that green shyt some of us has been talking about for years. Except for the wars and Mother Nature storms, humans still fight away getting more efficient. Except for gov Abbot of Texas who blocks border shipping with searches. Lol they say truckers sit in line 12 hrs. He still won’t look at the workplace for the illegals but he will politic that border which drives up the price of transporation and creates disruption. 
Business that follow the law and hire only US citizens have a huge disadvantage. Abbot won’t talk about that. Fun and games in Texas. The idea of jail the employer who hires illegals just can’t happen in red Texas. 

[Boat + 1,324]

https://photos.app.goo.gl/jKFYzLc7U3WWt8Pn8

[Ron Wagner + 710]

7 hours ago, Boat said:

The best way to fight energy prices is to have distributed production. Make your own parts with printer. Use the sun and wind for energy. The idea is keep it local as much as possible. Green house gardening is growing, you know, all that green shyt some of us has been talking about for years. Except for the wars and Mother Nature storms, humans still fight away getting more efficient. Except for gov Abbot of Texas who blocks border shipping with searches. Lol they say truckers sit in line 12 hrs. He still won’t look at the workplace for the illegals but he will politic that border which drives up the price of transporation and creates disruption. 
Business that follow the law and hire only US citizens have a huge disadvantage. Abbot won’t talk about that. Fun and games in Texas. The idea of jail the employer who hires illegals just can’t happen in red Texas. 

I agree that employers of illegals should be punished. Certainly the illegals are here because of the companies that hire them. I think that is illegal but it is unenforced, especially in sanctuary cities and states. The United States Chamber of Commerce is the biggest supporter of immigration there is. They wouldn't admit it but their members greatly benefit from it while American citizens have real wages reduced because of it, and  have to support the illegals through billions of dollars in benefits and other costs. 

It is very curious to me though that you only criticize Republicans regarding the border which is wide open due to Biden and company. All the illegals that are here and established  are far harder to remove and send back to Mexico. They are illegal in name only because they were allowed in by Democrats who have been fighting border walls forever. I am a Mestizo and my grandmother, who raised me until I was five, was Spanish speaking from White Oaks, New Mexico where my mother was born. They then went to New Orleans and later to Detroit with my maternal grandfather. That is where I was born, so I am second generation partially Hispanic. My grandmother was probably an illegal originally from Juarez. There really was no fence or controlled border but the Mexicans and Mestizos were buried in the back of the graveyard in White Oaks, which I have visited twice. 

You will find that second and older generations of Hispanics do not approve of Biden and his unlimited and illegal immigration. The next election will show that. The average American does not want to pay taxes to support illegal aliens, most of whom are young men. 

[TailingsPond + 1,009]

On 4/14/2022 at 9:09 AM, NickW said:

I was reading an article from the IEEE (Inst of Elec engineers) that said if Europe accepted a 14 deg C household temp next winter it would completely negate the need to import any Russian gas. 

14 Deg C is cool but doable and not freeze to death territory. We commonly have our thermo at 16 Deg C and find this quite acceptable

14C will cause hypothermia in the elderly. 

Young people can wear a sweater and shiver a bit if needed.

Most women like to be warm.  Personally I much prefer being cold versus too hot

Edited April 16, 2022 by TailingsPond

[TailingsPond + 1,009]

2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

I agree that employers of illegals should be punished. Certainly the illegals are here because of the companies that hire them. I think that is illegal but it is unenforced, especially in sanctuary cities and states. The United States Chamber of Commerce is the biggest supporter of immigration there is. They wouldn't admit it but their members greatly benefit from it while American citizens have real wages reduced because of it, and  have to support the illegals through billions of dollars in benefits and other costs. 

It is very curious to me though that you only criticize Republicans regarding the border which is wide open due to Biden and company. All the illegals that are here and established  are far harder to remove and send back to Mexico. They are illegal in name only because they were allowed in by Democrats who have been fighting border walls forever. I am a Mestizo and my grandmother, who raised me until I was five, was Spanish speaking from White Oaks, New Mexico where my mother was born. They then went to New Orleans and later to Detroit with my maternal grandfather. That is where I was born, so I am second generation partially Hispanic. My grandmother was probably an illegal originally from Juarez. There really was no fence or controlled border but the Mexicans and Mestizos were buried in the back of the graveyard in White Oaks, which I have visited twice. 

You will find that second and older generations of Hispanics do not approve of Biden and his unlimited and illegal immigration. The next election will show that. The average American does not want to pay taxes to support illegal aliens, most of whom are young men. 

Just to be clear you support punishing Trump if his resorts hire illegal immigrants?

The border is wide open because of Biden?  "Build the wall" was a Trump election campaign issue which clearly predated Biden. Trump literally ran on the border problem, and failed to fix it, and you blame his successor?

Logic, try it sometime.

You are becoming 0R0 level stupid.

 

 

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by TailingsPond

[Boat + 1,324]

2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

I agree that employers of illegals should be punished. Certainly the illegals are here because of the companies that hire them. I think that is illegal but it is unenforced, especially in sanctuary cities and states. The United States Chamber of Commerce is the biggest supporter of immigration there is. They wouldn't admit it but their members greatly benefit from it while American citizens have real wages reduced because of it, and  have to support the illegals through billions of dollars in benefits and other costs. 

It is very curious to me though that you only criticize Republicans regarding the border which is wide open due to Biden and company. All the illegals that are here and established  are far harder to remove and send back to Mexico. They are illegal in name only because they were allowed in by Democrats who have been fighting border walls forever. I am a Mestizo and my grandmother, who raised me until I was five, was Spanish speaking from White Oaks, New Mexico where my mother was born. They then went to New Orleans and later to Detroit with my maternal grandfather. That is where I was born, so I am second generation partially Hispanic. My grandmother was probably an illegal originally from Juarez. There really was no fence or controlled border but the Mexicans and Mestizos were buried in the back of the graveyard in White Oaks, which I have visited twice. 

You will find that second and older generations of Hispanics do not approve of Biden and his unlimited and illegal immigration. The next election will show that. The average American does not want to pay taxes to support illegal aliens, most of whom are young men. 

First, I live in Texas and they gripe the most. At the same time Abbot continues to surround himself with the police suggesting they protect the public from the invaders. This is while several generations of brown people have lived in Texas. I think that’s racist and a shame. It something Putin would do. If you look at illegal immigration charts for the last 30 years you’ll see the numbers of illegals has not grown but actually have shrunk since GW was in office. Republicans loved illegal and legal immigration forever until Trump. Then they pretended there was a huge problem at the border even t though Obama stopped the rise in illegal immigration. Obama deported as many as got in. You claim Biden has opened up illegal immigration. Show that in numbers. This sounds like Mongolian coal that has yet to show up in a chart. From what I can find, most immigrants are not allowed in regardless of what Abbot or Trump says. 

[Boat + 1,324]

I can drive you to where you can find illegal immigrant help all around Houston. It’s $15 per hr and you have to furnish lunch. This idea Biden is any different than a Texan politician is ridiculous. I think it’s because of lawn care. They don’t want to lose it. What I don’t like is the magnet of jobs and then hunt them down like fugitives. I don’t want to be like Putin or the Chinese or like Abbot and Texas Republicans. We can do better. 

[Strangelovesurfing + 737]

17 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I agree that they can't shift all that Europe destined oil and gas to China and India for many years. But take Zeihan with a grain of salt, he says a lot of things that sound good but aren't correct. In the video you posted he claims that the Russian Black Sea oil port is shutdown because of insurance but it isn't. A storm caused it to decrease output but it is still operational https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/russia-targets-caspian-pipeline-with-unscheduled-inspections/2-1-1201953

In his most recent video about the Moskva sinking he talks at length about how the Russians can't reinforce the Black Sea because other forces are too far away. He is apparently clueless that Moskva's two sister ships and other combat vessels were sent to the Med before the war and are still there.

Expecting everything someone like Zeihan says to be exact is setting an exceedingly high bar. He did state years ago that 2022 is the final year Russia had to initiate a war of this scale, that's an exceptional prediction considering the zeitgeist that countries don't attack other countries over territory.

42 tril. of nat gas is a big fat target for someone who thinks it's all just Russian territory anyway.

Task and Purpose video I think is spot on - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZUMJ_T1YBI

Putin wants control of those natural gas fields in eastern Ukraine otherwise Russia has no cards vs Europe once battery vehicles take over. You know that's coming faster than people realize.

 

Edited April 16, 2022 by Strangelovesurfing

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

21 minutes ago, Strangelovesurfing said:

Expecting everything someone like Zeihan says to be exact is setting an exceedingly high bar. He did state years ago that 2022 is the final year Russia had to initiate a war of this scale, that's an exceptional prediction considering the zeitgeist that countries don't attack other countries over territory.

Putin wants control of those natural gas fields in eastern Ukraine otherwise Russia has no cards vs Europe once battery vehicles take over. You know that's coming faster than people realize.

Yes all renewables are coming faster than most realize including Zeihan. He is pretty clueless when it comes to renewables. He doesn't acknowledge off shore wind, HVDC power lines, batteries, hydrogen or electric cars. He focuses on how limited he thinks renewables are: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4ydu0fnn9Q

[nsdp + 449]

On 4/14/2022 at 5:02 AM, Rob Plant said:

Are you suggesting Gazprom cant operate or increase production out of Sakhalin or the Chayanda field because they dont have the expertise?

This just isnt correct.

Chayanda has the ability on its own to supply 38bcm to China if they wish, no need for Western companies expertise whatsover.

"The full capacity of the 1,420 mm (56 in) pipeline would be up to 61 billion m³ (2.2 trillion cu ft) per annum of natural gas,^[5][19] of which 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum are supplied to China.^[20][21] The export to China starts with 5 billion m³ (180 billion cu ft) per annum in 2020, and is expected to increase gradually to 38 billion m³ (1.3 trillion cu ft) per annum by 2025.^[22]

Tom how much do you know about retrograde condensate reservoirs?   Not a damned thing. https://glossary.oilfield.slb.com/en/Terms/r/retrograde_condensation.aspxHave you ever even had work expereince in a technology E&P position in an oil company or oil services  company?  I did all of the compliance filings for Whitney Canyon  for 5 years while working for Std. Oil (Ind).  We licensed the design of a nitrogen rejection plant  to remove and reinject  nitrogen produced from wells  to maintain reservoir pressure.   At Pruhdoe Bay you reject and CO2 into the gas cap to maintain pressure in the reservoir.

If you don't maintain the pressure  the gas/oil changes phase and  becomes trapped in the reservoir and becomes unrecoverable. This will give you a short description of the field and direct you to a 1991 paper on the geology.https://www.osti.gov/biblio/7024276-whitney-canyon-carter-creek-field-gas-production-from-carbonate-reservoirs-thrust-belt-structural-setting-western-wyoming-usa

I will give you a hint as to your lack of knowledge. Exxon did not even try to design the rejection plant  at Pruhdoe Bay.

Edited April 17, 2022 by nsdp
correct reservoir process.

[nsdp + 449]

20 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

I agree that they can't shift all that Europe destined oil and gas to China and India for many years. But take Zeihan with a grain of salt, he says a lot of things that sound good but aren't correct. In the video you posted he claims that the Russian Black Sea oil port is shutdown because of insurance but it isn't. A storm caused it to decrease output but it is still operational https://www.upstreamonline.com/production/russia-targets-caspian-pipeline-with-unscheduled-inspections/2-1-1201953

In his most recent video about the Moskva sinking he talks at length about how the Russians can't reinforce the Black Sea because other forces are too far away. He is apparently clueless that Moskva's two sister ships and other combat vessels were sent to the Med before the war and are still there.

Jay the Dardanelles and Bosporus  are closed by the Montreaux treaty to naval vessels  of all belligerents. Cargo vessels of non-belligerents destined for non-belligerent ports  only are permitted.   You could not send a row boat of Russian or Ukrainian or Syrian marines through the channel.  Lend Lease supplies could not be sent through the channel to the Black Sea even after Germany surrendered  because the US, UK and Commonwealth were still at war with Japan. Oil shipments out of the Black Sea are restricted because VLCC, ULCC, SuezMax , AfraMax and new Panamax ships will ground themselves. Tankers that would and could go through the old locks in Panama are about the biggest you can get through.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

19 minutes ago, nsdp said:

Jay the Dardanelles and Bosporus  are closed by the Montreaux treaty to naval vessels  of all belligerents. Cargo vessels of non-belligerents destined for non-belligerent ports  only are permitted.   You could not send a row boat of Russian or Ukrainian or Syrian marines through the channel.  Lend Lease supplies could not be sent through the channel to the Black Sea even after Germany surrendered  because the US, UK and Commonwealth were still at war with Japan. Oil shipments out of the Black Sea are restricted because VLCC, ULCC, SuezMax , AfraMax and new Panamax ships will ground themselves. Tankers that would and could go through the old locks in Panama are about the biggest you can get through.

No cargo ships have been blocked. Turkey can only block cargo ships of belligerents that Turkey itself is at war with:

SECTION I. MERCHANT VESSELS. Article 2. In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any formalities, except as provided in Article 3 below. No taxes or charges other than those authorised by Annex I to the present Convention shall be levied by the Turkish authorities on these vessels when passing in transit without calling at a port in the Straits. In order to facilitate the collection of these taxes or charges merchant vessels passing through the Straits shall communicate to the officials at the stations referred to in Article 3 their name, nationality, tonnage, destination and last port of call (provenance). Pilotage and towage remain optional. Article 3. All ships entering the Straits by the AXgean Sea or by the Black Sea shall stop at a sanitary station near the entrance to the Straits for the purposes of the sanitary control prescribed by Turkish law within the framework of international sanitary regulations. This control, in the case of ships possessing a clean bill of health or presenting a declaration of health testifying that they do not fall within the scope of the provisions of the second paragraph of the present Article, shall be carried out by day and by night with all possible speed, and the vessels in question shall not be required to make any other stop during their passage through the Straits. Vessels which have on board cases of plague, cholera, yellow fever, exanthematic typhus or smallpox, or which have had such cases on board during the previous seven days, and vessels which have left an infected port within less than five times twenty-four hours shall stop at the sanitary stations indicated in the preceding paragraph in order to embark such sanitary guards as the Turkish authorities may direct. No tax or charge shall be levied in respect of these sanitary guards and they shall be disembarked at a sanitary station on departure from the Straits. Article 4. In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits subject to the provisions of Articles 2 and 3. Pilotage and towage remain optional. Article 5. In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy. Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit shall be effected by the route which shall in each case be indicated by the Turkish authorities. Article 6. Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war, the provisions of Article 2 shall nevertheless continue to be applied except that vessels must enter the Straits by 

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/LON/Volume 173/v173.pdf#page=219

Edited April 17, 2022 by Jay McKinsey

[nsdp + 449]

1 minute ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Oil tankers are merchants not naval vessels. They have not been blocked. Turkey can only block merchant ships of belligerents that Turkey itself is at war with:

SECTION I. MERCHANT VESSELS. Article 2. In time of peace, merchant vessels shall enjoy complete freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits, by day and by night, under any flag and with any kind of cargo, without any formalities, except as provided in Article 3 below. No taxes or charges other than those authorised by Annex I to the present Convention shall be levied by the Turkish authorities on these vessels when passing in transit without calling at a port in the Straits. In order to facilitate the collection of these taxes or charges merchant vessels passing through the Straits shall communicate to the officials at the stations referred to in Article 3 their name, nationality, tonnage, destination and last port of call (provenance). Pilotage and towage remain optional. Article 3. All ships entering the Straits by the AXgean Sea or by the Black Sea shall stop at a sanitary station near the entrance to the Straits for the purposes of the sanitary control prescribed by Turkish law within the framework of international sanitary regulations. This control, in the case of ships possessing a clean bill of health or presenting a declaration of health testifying that they do not fall within the scope of the provisions of the second paragraph of the present Article, shall be carried out by day and by night with all possible speed, and the vessels in question shall not be required to make any other stop during their passage through the Straits. Vessels which have on board cases of plague, cholera, yellow fever, exanthematic typhus or smallpox, or which have had such cases on board during the previous seven days, and vessels which have left an infected port within less than five times twenty-four hours shall stop at the sanitary stations indicated in the preceding paragraph in order to embark such sanitary guards as the Turkish authorities may direct. No tax or charge shall be levied in respect of these sanitary guards and they shall be disembarked at a sanitary station on departure from the Straits. Article 4. In time of war, Turkey not being belligerent, merchant vessels, under any flag or with any kind of cargo, shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits subject to the provisions of Articles 2 and 3. Pilotage and towage remain optional. Article 5. In time of war, Turkey being belligerent, merchant vessels not belonging to a country at war with Turkey shall enjoy freedom of transit and navigation in the Straits on condition that they do not in any way assist the enemy. Such vessels shall enter the Straits by day and their transit shall be effected by the route which shall in each case be indicated by the Turkish authorities. Article 6. Should Turkey consider herself to be threatened with imminent danger of war, the provisions of Article 2 shall nevertheless continue to be applied except that vessels must enter the Straits by 

https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/LON/Volume 173/v173.pdf#page=219

Jay "Cargo vessels of non-belligerents destined for non-belligerent ports  only are permitted" is what I said. .   You cannot physically get a VLCC, ULCC(25 m), SuezMax(20.2m), Aframax (>22 m)or new Panamax (15 m) tanker though the straits because  of the shallow depth  which is less than the draft of the tanker. Legal rights are irrelevant. Archimedes and physics prevail here.  That is why the old Independence class(60,0000 tons) of carriers were the last carriers that could enter the Black Sea and that required sending the air wing to a base in Turkey or Greece to get to 36 ft/11.5 m draft. The old USNS  Enterprise (CVN-65) drew too much water and she was only 92,00 tons. She drew 40 ft/12.2m.  New Panamax are the smallest large crude vessels and they cannot exceed 15 m.