The Saudi crown prince is truly desperate, so for me it's all about figuring out what this means for the oil market right now. The latest arrest is of Mohammed Hussein Al-Amoudi a duel national (Saudi and Ethiopian) said to be the second richest Saudi, after Prince Al-Waleed bin Talal. https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20171123-saudi-arabia-arrests-second-richest-man-in-kingdom/ 

I think the first step here is understanding that this has nothing to with an anti-corruption drive. Yes, it's in part about subduing potential rivals because at the first sign of weakness, MBS could be sidelined. This isn't the West, and it isn't even the Wild West--the royal intrigue here is mind-boggling. But the second point is just is an important: MBS is desperate and this is a cash grab straight up. He's trying to fill coffers with Saudi billionaire money. What does this desperation mean for investors?

 

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Yeah, this is by far the most exciting story of the decade and I suspect that we're not really paying enough attention here, or are underestimating the power of all of this to affect markets. I'm not an expert on this but I've heard that these guys the crown prince is having arrested aren't really worth as much as they seem to be on paper. We've heard tons about the Vision 2030 plan, so it seems to me that if this fails, the crown prince won't survive. That pretty much underpins the desperation, I guess. So maybe we should expect more arrests. I mean, it's a pretty risky move because these guys he's arresting have investors who are going to suffer. He can say it's about anti-corruption, but surely no one's buying this? I like the cash grab theory.

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Prince Mohammed bin Salman (32) ascends to the throne! His goal is to strengthen position and in some time to weaken all potential rivals. I remind only four months ago he became a crown prince. It is clear that these moves have nothing to do with fight against corruption. This is a battle for the throne, and I not believe that will have big reflection on their foreign policy and big investors. Especially when we talking about their strongest and bigest allies.  Arabia is geostrategicly so important.  Especially if we know the relationship with Iran, for example. In that sense that Saudi Arabia is the shields for all those who "has problem"  with Iranian regime. And, if we on same side put money, oil, etc ... Everything will be like before, but the rules will write MBS!

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I don't think it's desperation, MBS is just trying to strengthen his position and raise funds for his Vision 2030 plan... just a change of guard, nothing else.

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I would be shocked if the true motives had much to do with fighting corruption...

I don't know if I'd say desperation. I'd say a calculated fear. The Aramco IPO, if it has any hope of listing in London or New York (which I doubt), has to at least feign transparency. Publicly cleaning its own corrupt house--whether or not for the right reasons--is just the first of many hoops the Kingdom will have to jump through.

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