WTI needs to stay above 70.x, for rally to continue.

Wti now 70.

At 76 I said we go to 62.5 then 52, well it didnt hot those targets, but it did go down and did hit 67. So almost 1000 basis points.

At 67 I did say we would hit 70, and so it did, 

It would hit somewhere between 70 and 76. But why not go right through 70, if there is a supply problem, why not just go to 75 again, if indeed the situation is as bad as it was 2 weeks ago? This is the paradox. Fundamentalists, Good luck answering that one. So basically its simple if the situation is as bad then up, otherwise look out below. Since there are a lot of big bulls, they will try very hard to make it go up . Very volatile session coming up later. Any negative news will be fodder for the bulls.

 

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Well WTI dropped 100 basis from 70, I guess the Sauds must be reading my analysis, and bounced of 69. If she goes below 69. Then watch out.

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So its quite clear from one of the charts that we could fall below 69 later, how far lower after that, that is depends on what panic that will bring. 

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Fundamental reason for possible big drop in oil.

Lower oil demand in the United States and China caused by an economic slowdown from their trade dispute would likely weigh heavily on markets.

The only news that showed maybe why it bounced of from 69, was that Sauds said they will pump a 100,000 barrels less next month. Right, but its a little too late for that, If US slaps a 500 Bill tariff on China, guess what that will do to their economy and to their demand for oil? Can you say, nosedive?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/20/reuters-america-update-3-oil-prices-fall-on-trade-worries.html

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Fundamental reason for possible big drop in oil.

Lower oil demand in the United States and China caused by an economic slowdown from their trade dispute would likely weigh heavily on markets.

The only news that showed maybe why it bounced of from 69, was that Sauds said they will pump a 100,000 barrels less next month. Right, but its a little too late for that, If US slaps a 500 Bill tariff on China, guess what that will do to their economy and to their demand for oil? Can you say, nosedive?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/20/reuters-america-update-3-oil-prices-fall-on-trade-worries.html

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Well NYMEX and CME just opened up. Traders will be watching prices closely, for any indication, of an imminent selloff. For now most traders still think we oil heads a lot higher, they may not be able to see, what is right in front of their noses. But the day is still young.

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Fundamental reason for possible big drop in oil.

Lower oil demand in the United States and China caused by an economic slowdown from their trade dispute would likely weigh heavily on markets.

The only news that showed maybe why it bounced of from 69, was that Sauds said they will pump a 100,000 barrels less next month. Right, but its a little too late for that, If US slaps a 500 Bill tariff on China, guess what that will do to their economy and to their demand for oil? Can you say, nosedive?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/20/reuters-america-update-3-oil-prices-fall-on-trade-worries.html

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Fundamental reasons why oil should go down.

So here in David Letterman style is the top 10

1] Third week oil is down.

2] Bulls are saying average down.

3] The Sauds increased production to 7.6 bpd.

4] US crude output rose the 11 bpd.

5] Jump in inventories.

6] Since sanctions, some countries increased production

7] US  may change lighten up the sanctions

8] Shale pumps out a lot more oil.

9] New countries set to produce.

10] LIbiya opens up 1 more site.

 

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