Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[NickW + 2,714]

30 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Eh? It really wouldn't, because the yen is so small. I think you want this

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EG.GDP.PUSE.KO.PP.KD?most_recent_value_desc=true

instead. "GDP per unit of energy use"

This shows Lesotho to be the most energy-efficient economy out there.

Dodgy reporting. Interesting to see where Russia is $5.4 of GDP (PPP) per Kg of oil. Compare that to Germany at $13.4 / kg

[NickW + 2,714]

15 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The Iraqi Lion of Babylon tank was a very crappy T72 knockoff, with no composite armor. Some 20 yeas behind yours. Their ammo was even worse. Steel core APFSDS only. 30 years behind you. You only dared to attack after 13 years of "softening" by suffocating sanctions.

Russia is 5th or 6th economy worldwide on PPP basis, competing with Germany.

There is nothing wrong with the Russian doctrine. They only look bad to you because they are fighting such a similar force. Either one would go through a NATO force like butter.

There is not going to be a guerilla war. Ukrainians are snapping out of their support for this vile regime rather quickly.

 

🤡

Since Russia started a civil war in Ukraine several western nations have been training Ukrainian troops in NATO type battle tactics. For example over 20,000 trained by the UK. Thats one of the main reasons the Ukrainians are holding their own despite Russias huge numerical superiority. Its why Russia got wooped in its attempt to take Kiev. 

This whole don't supply Ukraine too much to avoid confrontation simply doesn't work with Russia. I hope the US is training Ukrainian troops on how to use Patriot. Likewise in due course I hope Ukraine starts to get F16's. Will be interesting to see how Russia fares up against modern NATO weapons. 

You also seem to overlook NATO's enormous air superiority over Russia in a potential confrontation and thats before you consider the qualitative advantages of the F35, F15, Eurofighter, Rafale, F22 etc. Whatever some 8th grade Indian General says global sales to wealthier nations indicate where the quality reliable weapons are built. 

Likewise Id like to see the US donate some of its older M1 tanks. Id like to see the UK donate some Challenger 2's but tbh we haven't got that many, unfortunately. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

23 minutes ago, NickW said:

Dodgy reporting. Interesting to see where Russia is $5.4 of GDP (PPP) per Kg of oil. Compare that to Germany at $13.4 / kg

The effect of a zero base? Look at how steep their graph is. They probably were not using a single kg of oil before. More like

https://www.alamy.com/the-mamokae-village-at-the-foot-of-the-black-mountain-pass-in-lesotho-cow-dung-and-dried-bushes-are-stored-to-use-as-fuel-for-fires-as-the-villages-i-image186449512.html

Join the trend

https://www.ebay.com/itm/334130831180

https://www.etsy.com/market/cow_dung

Russia is closer to Iceland? ($3) 2+ million people living beyond the Polar Circle.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, NickW said:

 

🤡

Since Russia started a civil war in Ukraine several western nations have been training Ukrainian troops in NATO type battle tactics. For example over 20,000 trained by the UK. Thats one of the main reasons the Ukrainians are holding their own despite Russias huge numerical superiority. Its why Russia got wooped in its attempt to take Kiev. 

This whole don't supply Ukraine too much to avoid confrontation simply doesn't work with Russia. I hope the US is training Ukrainian troops on how to use Patriot. Likewise in due course I hope Ukraine starts to get F16's. Will be interesting to see how Russia fares up against modern NATO weapons. 

You also seem to overlook NATO's enormous air superiority over Russia in a potential confrontation and thats before you consider the qualitative advantages of the F35, F15, Eurofighter, Rafale, F22 etc. Whatever some 8th grade Indian General says global sales to wealthier nations indicate where the quality reliable weapons are built. 

Likewise Id like to see the US donate some of its older M1 tanks. Id like to see the UK donate some Challenger 2's but tbh we haven't got that many, unfortunately. 

Those "several Western nations" were the ones who overthrew the Ukrainian government and started that war in the first place. Don't pretend that you ever had any other use for Ukraine, but to use it to get to Russia.

Russian force in Ukraine is the numerically smaller one. It never exceeded 200,000 (of whom about 1/3 are former Ukrainian nationals, now with Donbass citizen militias) Ze claims to have a one million army. He's obviously full of it, but still...

The Kiev offensive o'40,000 was either a bluff or a decoy. You cannot really take a city of that size with this many troops. Took a million Nazis a couple of months during WWII. Russia didn't get whooped, but retreated orderly.

Your advantage in aircraft is a quantitative one. All the alleged Wunderwaffeln you sent to Ukraine so far turned out to be significantly oversold after some initial hype. I don't think the Patriot works at all. Older M1 tanks, as in without any ERA kits at all? You are on.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

Yet plenty of videos of drones taking out Russian T72's with 40mm grenades dropped on the turret. 

This just in. Allegedly, a T-72B surviving a Javelin hit

https://t.me/c/1558764025/3747

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

14 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Qatar itself would much rather do swaps with the Russians than physically deliver their own LNG. What do you do about that?

Centrica to buy LNG from Delfin Midstream - Offshore Energy (offshore-energy.biz)

You buy it FOB. This is all quite simple and well-established. It is about the infrastructure needed to do it. If that is not there you cant do it. 

 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

43 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

Centrica to buy LNG from Delfin Midstream - Offshore Energy (offshore-energy.biz)

You buy it FOB. This is all quite simple and well-established. It is about the infrastructure needed to do it. If that is not there you cant do it. 

 

UK is even buying some from Australia now, but normal business practice it isn't. The most meaningful thing to do with US LNG is to drop it off at the Atlantic coast of Spain or Portugal. LNG is a cryogenic liquid, which generates evaporative losses. Expensive to drive it around for too long.

Whatever happened with the firm intent to only pay spot, never any long-term contracts? Rhetorical question, I suppose.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

UK is even buying some from Australia now, but normal business practice it isn't. The most meaningful thing to do with US LNG is to drop it off at the Atlantic coast of Spain or Portugal. LNG is a cryogenic liquid, which generates evaporative losses. Expensive to drive it around for too long.

Whatever happened with the firm intent to only pay spot, never any long-term contracts? Rhetorical question, I suppose.

This import from Oz is extremely small and what is probably not known by many is that the UK exports of gas have risen 185% since the price rises and the Ukraine invasion. Why not import LPG and make money exporting it to other countries? You say this isnt normal business practice, I would disagree!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29

Key points of the above link:-

The UK has relatively little capacity to store gas compared with European counterparts, because of the closure of the Rough gas storage facility in 2017. The UK instead re-exports imported LNG, through pipelines to Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands. The UK has about a fifth of European capacity to turn LNG back into gas (PDF, 611KB) (regasification) at the three import terminals. Once gas is in the UK pipelines it can be moved around the UK or exported to other countries via interconnector pipelines. There has been a growing demand for LNG from European countries since 2021, and the EU has secured record levels of LNG imports and higher pipeline gas deliveries.

European countries have taken advantage of the discounted price of UK wholesale gas (NBP) compared with the European price (TTF). This gas is also being used to refill storage facilities ahead of the autumn and winter. This European demand for gas and the UK's regasification infrastructure has contributed to the UK's exports of gas increasing 185% from 2020 to 2021, reaching record levels of exports in April 2022.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Rob Plant

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, Rob Plant said:

This import from Oz is extremely small and what is probably not known by many is that the UK exports of gas have risen 185% since the price rises and the Ukraine invasion. Why not import LPG and make money exporting it to other countries? You say this isnt normal business practice, I would disagree!

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/trendsinukimportsandexportsoffuels/2022-06-29

Key points of the above link:-

The UK has relatively little capacity to store gas compared with European counterparts, because of the closure of the Rough gas storage facility in 2017. The UK instead re-exports imported LNG, through pipelines to Belgium, Ireland and the Netherlands. The UK has about a fifth of European capacity to turn LNG back into gas (PDF, 611KB) (regasification) at the three import terminals. Once gas is in the UK pipelines it can be moved around the UK or exported to other countries via interconnector pipelines. There has been a growing demand for LNG from European countries since 2021, and the EU has secured record levels of LNG imports and higher pipeline gas deliveries.

European countries have taken advantage of the discounted price of UK wholesale gas (NBP) compared with the European price (TTF). This gas is also being used to refill storage facilities ahead of the autumn and winter. This European demand for gas and the UK's regasification infrastructure has contributed to the UK's exports of gas increasing 185% from 2020 to 2021, reaching record levels of exports in April 2022.

I have no doubt in the abilities of your City folks to gamble away err hedge out all of your actual gas. I already mentioned that I believe gambling to be the one true vice of the British people, instead of spanking, like everybody thinks. If I remember correctly, you strongly disagreed with this assessment before, though. This time around, I actually think that you are coming out on top, because the EU is clinically insane.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

53 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I have no doubt in the abilities of your City folks to gamble away err hedge out all of your actual gas. I already mentioned that I believe gambling to be the one true vice of the British people, instead of spanking, like everybody thinks. If I remember correctly, you strongly disagreed with this assessment before, though. This time around, I actually think that you are coming out on top, because the EU is clinically insane.

No the British people do like a gamble especially on the football on a Saturday, but nothing like South East Asian people who literally will gamble on anything.

Anyway whats wrong with spanking?😉

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

9 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

No the British people do like a gamble especially on the football on a Saturday, but nothing like South East Asian people who literally will gamble on anything.

Anyway whats wrong with spanking?😉

Everybody likes spanking! It is not just a British vice.

[NickW + 2,714]

18 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Those "several Western nations" were the ones who overthrew the Ukrainian government and started that war in the first place. Don't pretend that you ever had any other use for Ukraine, but to use it to get to Russia.

Russian force in Ukraine is the numerically smaller one. It never exceeded 200,000 (of whom about 1/3 are former Ukrainian nationals, now with Donbass citizen militias) Ze claims to have a one million army. He's obviously full of it, but still...

The Kiev offensive o'40,000 was either a bluff or a decoy. You cannot really take a city of that size with this many troops. Took a million Nazis a couple of months during WWII. Russia didn't get whooped, but retreated orderly.

Your advantage in aircraft is a quantitative one. All the alleged Wunderwaffeln you sent to Ukraine so far turned out to be significantly oversold after some initial hype. I don't think the Patriot works at all. Older M1 tanks, as in without any ERA kits at all? You are on.

All part of the Russian fantasy about what happened. 

Yanokyvch refused to sign the agreement and FT association with the EU after the Ukrainian parliament had agreed the terms with the EU. I assume Yanovych's move was unconstitutional and he doesn't have absolute power. That led to to the Maidan revolution protests (with lots of govt brutality in response)  and he was removed by due process and left the country. 

There was no overthrow by western nations. The EU simply offered it terms which were less generous than the Russian bribes but politically the country wanted to seek a westwards move so politically opted for the EU association offer rather than follow Putlers sweetie trail. 

Following that the Russians stirred up anti Ukrainian feelings in the Crimea and Donetsk / Lugansk regions leading to the annexation in the first instance and civil war in the second. 

'-----------------------------------

Patriot doesn't work' - yeah sure  thats why its operated by at least 17 countries, most of whom are first world developed countries. Its worked very well in Iraq and Israel. It hasn't worked so well in Saudi Arabia, no doubt because the operators have been asleep / praying / molesting goats / on the phone to their boyfriends. 

'M1 without ERA' I'm sure there are several US defense companies that can retrofit ERA to older storage models. 

 

 

[NickW + 2,714]

4 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I have no doubt in the abilities of your City folks to gamble away err hedge out all of your actual gas. I already mentioned that I believe gambling to be the one true vice of the British people, instead of spanking, like everybody thinks. If I remember correctly, you strongly disagreed with this assessment before, though. This time around, I actually think that you are coming out on top, because the EU is clinically insane.

We won't be exporting as much LNG in a couple of weeks because Rough storage facility is going to reopen and we will be filling that with 3 bn m3 from the North Sea. The LNG imports will back fill and provide UK domestic production. Anything left over can go to Europe. 

[NickW + 2,714]

7 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

UK is even buying some from Australia now, but normal business practice it isn't. The most meaningful thing to do with US LNG is to drop it off at the Atlantic coast of Spain or Portugal. LNG is a cryogenic liquid, which generates evaporative losses. Expensive to drive it around for too long.

Whatever happened with the firm intent to only pay spot, never any long-term contracts? Rhetorical question, I suppose.

Most modern tankers just divert the evaporation off to the engines so it gets used and offsets the use of bunker fuel. 

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

I have no doubt in the abilities of your City folks to gamble away err hedge out all of your actual gas. I already mentioned that I believe gambling to be the one true vice of the British people, instead of spanking, like everybody thinks. If I remember correctly, you strongly disagreed with this assessment before, though. This time around, I actually think that you are coming out on top, because the EU is clinically insane.

We are not gambling it away. The UK has the biggest LNG terminals in Europe. This time of year they are normally operating at slow speed. However this year they are operating flat out as we are onboarding as much gas as we can (thank you USA and others). That gas is then exported to Europe down the interconnector. The interconnector is at capacity so the other export route is to convert to electricity and export that way. In recent months the UK has switched to being a major exporter of electricity. As I type net exports from the Uk are about 1.8GW. Most of the export is overnight when domestic demand is low. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, NickW said:

All part of the Russian fantasy about what happened. 

Yanokyvch refused to sign the agreement and FT association with the EU after the Ukrainian parliament had agreed the terms with the EU. I assume Yanovych's move was unconstitutional and he doesn't have absolute power. That led to to the Maidan revolution protests (with lots of govt brutality in response)  and he was removed by due process and left the country. 

There was no overthrow by western nations. The EU simply offered it terms which were less generous than the Russian bribes but politically the country wanted to seek a westwards move so politically opted for the EU association offer rather than follow Putlers sweetie trail. 

Following that the Russians stirred up anti Ukrainian feelings in the Crimea and Donetsk / Lugansk regions leading to the annexation in the first instance and civil war in the second. 

'-----------------------------------

Patriot doesn't work' - yeah sure  thats why its operated by at least 17 countries, most of whom are first world developed countries. Its worked very well in Iraq and Israel. It hasn't worked so well in Saudi Arabia, no doubt because the operators have been asleep / praying / molesting goats / on the phone to their boyfriends. 

'M1 without ERA' I'm sure there are several US defense companies that can retrofit ERA to older storage models. 

 

 

Yanukovych did not refuse anything, but asked for additional negotiation. It was his government that initiated that process to start with. His party, together with the communists, had the majority coalition in the parliament at the time. Anyhow, it is up to the executive branch to negotiate free trade deals, and the parliament only ratifies them. Same as much anywhere else?

I already posted proofs that he was not removed with any kind of due process. Impeaching a Ukrainian president takes 3/4 supermajority vote, for which there was no quorum. This was just one of many grave constitutional violations that happened.

The EU association was always a bum deal, yes. Of course, the West always offers "investment" and Russia offers "bribes" Care to show me any Ukrainian politicians openly sponsored by Kremlin? I showed you somebody officially sponsored by Western grants, though. How are those different from bribes paid to traitors of their nations?

Crimea already tried from split from Ukraine in 1991 and 1994, but was suppressed. No need to stir anything new. You are acting out of character, BTW. It is illegal to call the whole thing a civil war in Ukraine. Officially, it has always been a Russian invasion. However stupid this story looks now.

In the first approximation, Donetsk and Lugansk simply preferred their government the way it was before it was overthrown by force. Yanukovych is from Donetsk and had his strongest support base there.

What makes Maidan a "revolution" and not a riot? It is now known that the rioters started to shoot at the police first and the police started to shoot back. Yanukovych never gave any orders to do so.

I am not aware of the Patriot ever intercepting anything useful. The spec actually says that it doesn't see anything below 200m, if you read the small print. Which makes it officially useless against cruise missiles.

NATO is an investment club into American arms. That does not necessarily mean that the arms are any good. Expensive - always.

The thing is already over 70t even without the retrofits. There is not a single road or bridge in Western Europe rated for vehicles over 60t. Good luck deploying with those.

Edited August 18, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

14 minutes ago, NickW said:

Most modern tankers just divert the evaporation off to the engines so it gets used and offsets the use of bunker fuel. 

Only the very latest tankers can run on the methane they carry. Most run on conventional bunker fuel. It requires an entirely different type of engine. Roughly, the "multifuel" / gas engines are carburated, while conventional heavy fuel ones sorta direct injection. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_engine

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Only the very latest tankers can run on the methane they carry. Most run on conventional bunker fuel. It requires an entirely different type of engine. Roughly, the "multifuel" / gas engines are carburated, while conventional heavy fuel ones sorta direct injection. See

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gas_engine

Maybe Russia hasn't cracked this yet but in the rest of the world boil off is fed into either the steam turbine combustion chamber or the diesel engines. 

In some cases reliquification plant is used but in most cases boil off supplements the diesel or HFO used. 

[NickW + 2,714]

1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Yanukovych did not refuse anything, but asked for additional negotiation. It was his government that initiated that process to start with. His party, together with the communists, had a majority coalition in the parliament. Anyhow, it is up to the executive branch to negotiate free trade deals, and the parliament only ratifies them. Same as much anywhere else?

I already posted proofs that he was not removed with any kind of due process. Impeaching a Ukrainian president takes 3/4 supermajority vote, for which there was no quorum. This was just one of many grave constitutional violations that happened.

The EU association was always a bum deal, yes. Of course, the West always offers "investment" and Russia offers "bribes" Care to show me any Ukrainian politicians openly sponsored by Kremlin? I showed you somebody officially sponsored by Western grants, though. How are those different from bribes paid to traitors of their nations?

Crimea already tried from split from Ukraine in 1991 and 1994, but was suppressed. No need to stir anything new. You are acting out of character, BTW. It is illegal to call the whole thing a civil war in Ukraine. Officially, it has always been a Russian invasion. However stupid this story looks now.

In the first approximation, Donetsk and Lugansk simply preferred their government the way it was before it was overthrown by force. Yanukovych is from Donetsk and had his strongest support base there.

What makes Maidan a "revolution" and not a riot? It is now known that the rioters started to shoot at the police first and the police started to shoot back. Yanukovych never gave any orders to do so.

I am not aware of the Patriot ever intercepting anything useful. The spec actually says that it doesn't see anything below 200m, if you read the small print. Which makes it officially useless against cruise missiles.

NATO is an investment club into American arms. That does not necessarily mean that the arms are any good. Expensive - always.

The thing is already over 70t even without the retrofits. There is not a single road or bridge in Western Europe rated for vehicles over 60t. Good luck deploying with those.

Is Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Japan, Morocco, Israel, Kuwait, South Korea, Jordan, UAE & Qatar in NATO? 

As for the M1 they can ford rivers upto about 2 metres and as they were designed primarily to fight the soviets ont he German plain I would assume consideration was given to river crossing abilities. 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

18 hours ago, NickW said:

Maybe Russia hasn't cracked this yet but in the rest of the world boil off is fed into either the steam turbine combustion chamber or the diesel engines. 

In some cases reliquification plant is used but in most cases boil off supplements the diesel or HFO used. 

There are steam turbine powered LNG carriers? Show me? I don't think you understand what a steam turbine is. It doesn't really have a combustion chamber, because it is an external combustion cycle. Turbine engines of any kind are extremely rare on commercial vessels.

Only the Qatari Q-Maxes have onboard reliquification plants. It was a big design mistake.

All the "Russian" LNG carriers actually can burn methane, but they are brand new and way fancy, with icebreaker features. ("Russian" as in serving the Russian LNG projects)

Edited August 19, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

22 minutes ago, NickW said:

Is Saudi Arabia, Taiwan, Japan, Morocco, Israel, Kuwait, South Korea, Jordan, UAE & Qatar in NATO? 

As for the M1 they can ford rivers upto about 2 metres and as they were designed primarily to fight the soviets ont he German plain I would assume consideration was given to river crossing abilities. 

Those are either classified as NATO special friends or simply have more money than is good for them.

Any tank can ford up to 5 meters with a snorkel. In theory. Specifically, the M1 will likely cave in a random town street and drop into the sewers before it gets to the river bank.

[NickW + 2,714]

18 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Those are either classified as NATO special friends or simply have more money than is good for them.

Any tank can ford up to 5 meters with a snorkel. In theory. Specifically, the M1 will likely cave in a random town street and drop into the sewers before it gets to the river bank.

How are things going on day 180 (or whatever it is I have lost count) of this 2 week operation? 

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

How are things going on day 180 (or whatever it is I have lost count) of this 2 week operation? 

On topic, as ever. How do you know it was supposed to be a 2-week operation?

[NickW + 2,714]

7 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

On topic, as ever. How do you know it was supposed to be a 2-week operation?

Various declarations made by Putler and Co at the beginning of this invasion. 

Whats the cost so far on the Russian side - 60,000-80,000 casualties? 

[NickW + 2,714]

A couple of my distant cousins have resolved their winter fuel crisis. They fly out to NZ in November and come back in March (both have children there). Complete drain down of house heating 7 water  systems so no gas used at all. 

One said his predicted winter gas bill 2x the cost of the flight.

Not a bad idea really. Better to spend the money having a nice holiday in the sun than indirectly  funding Putlers war machine. 

Also frees up their usage of gas and leccy  for others less fortunate.