Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Sorry SOME of Europeans wanted policy like gain with sanctions and no pain for Europe. 

 Such sanctions over Ukraine like imposed was an overreaction in my opinion. 

You first froze 300 bilions hard earned russian dollars and sent ton of weapons for Ukraine. 

How Russia earned thesr money?  Buy sending commodities to Europe. 

You wanted simply to crash russian economy and People live in Russia with that.

Im not really sure but russian oficial narrative is that Russia was even not able to use money earned on NG sent to Europe Even after 24th February. 

And you thought it will be gain over Russia with no pain. 

Sorry maybe with Venezuela North Korea or Syria but not with Russia.

Freezing at once 300 bilions dollars and trying simple to cancel Russia economically and even culturally from world map even if Russia really did invade sovereign Ukraine for me is a casus belli for things much more serious than just only partly embargo on gaś to Europe. 

Next time really you should think first than react. 

For me it was overreaction for challenging western hegemony that is slowly ending because of Asia especially China. 

Invading Ukraine is still Invading sovereign country yes. But Ukraine is neither In NATO or EU. 

European Union nów from russian perspective probably looks like simple economy part of NATO. 

With all consequences for everything in probably very long time. 

And sorry a lot of People are asking for whom Such sanctions will be more devastating in long term. 

Europe is also really a very big looser in 2022. 

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Its simply.  You can cancel Russia or want something from them. Even if they really invade Ukraine. 

But sorry not these 2 things at the SOME time during this Winter in Europe. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

But Lets Come back strictly to NG

SO that will be like that

USA will send more and more LNG to Europe

As a result HH and Europe price much Come much closer to themselves Than now in long term

SO US LNG producers will have huge profits but whole US economy I think a very high NG price in comparison with era before LNG exports

SO they will be finally SOME lobby and one Day US Senate will Say sorry guys in Europe but we need to take care of our economy first and limit exports to rather have cheap NG at home

And What then? 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

More optimistic scenario is like that

Oil and NG will Flow to Europe in SOME kind of agreement

Term oil embargo probably mighty be extented because of hard reality 

Discout of russian oil will be somewhat a lot lower Than at maximum

Sanctions will stay in place.  But not many countries are really strongly interested in enforcing all of them because of their own National interests they will leak.  How much we will See. 

Mostly because sane People know Than European countries doesnt really want to destroy Russia.  Maybe Poles and Baltics. 

What West really wants is SOME kind of sober more competent Yeltsin.  Main problem is I dont think Russians want even much more competent Yeltsin as junior partner of West after all this cancel thing this year. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Tomasz

[Michael Sanches + 187]

My gas stocks are doing great, the companies are getting even healthier, and the dividends keep rolling in. I love it when stupid voters vote in greedy, power grabbing politicians. 

"Hi. I'm from the government and I am here to help you. Face the other way and bend over. 😀 😀 😀

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

48 minutes ago, Michael Sanches said:

My gas stocks are doing great, the companies are getting even healthier, and the dividends keep rolling in. I love it when stupid voters vote in greedy, power grabbing politicians. 

"Hi. I'm from the government and I am here to help you. Face the other way and bend over. 😀 😀 😀

My oil and gas stocks are doing great, but in Russia. I get nothing out of it, because they severed the connection between ADRs / GDRs and principals. Unclear, who exactly were they going to punish, but their own investors? From now on, I'll try to get a ruble account and invest directly. The dividend yields approaching 10% are unprecedented elsewhere, but in Russian energy stocks.

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Well to be honest listen to Anas Alhaji. He said that OPEC will help Russia.  Not only not play against but try to help. 

The Second thought is he think Putin has rather very strong hand in Energy area against Europe. 

Then he said everybody is happy making big money over Europe now.  Even Iran and Venezuela are really  quite happy now 

And he is superbulish on oil in short to middle term

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by Tomasz

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

34 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well to be honest listen to Anas Alhaji. He said that OPEC will help Russia.  Not only not play against but try to help. 

The Second thought is he think Putin has rather very strong hand in Energy area against Europe. 

Then he said everybody is happy making big money over Europe now.  Even Iran and Venezuela are really  quite happy now 

And he is superbulish on oil in short to middle term

 

OPEC is not as much helping Russia, but themselves. They are obviously interested in oil prices being high. Thanks to Russia/OPEC+ did OPEC turn into a functional organization. It was more about some Arab issues than oil before.

Another obvious one. Russia is the most affordable supplier of energy to Europe. Because, geography. Legislating against geography is a form of legislation against the laws of nature and bound to fail.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

On 8/12/2022 at 6:08 PM, Starschy said:

The Unemployment rate in EU is 6% and above in many Countries. Those numbers will increase and I think next February it looks way different.

.

Actually in the UK you cannot get staff to fill the vacancies, i guess a legacy of Brexit.

Those who are unemployed have no intention of working a day in their lives as they are lazy layabouts living off state benefits!

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Actually in the UK you cannot get staff to fill the vacancies, i guess a legacy of Brexit.

Those who are unemployed have no intention of working a day in their lives as they are lazy layabouts living off state benefits!

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

6 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead

Does that include Tomasz? You can keep him!

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

8 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead

Ahhh democracy. Demonised by many, abhorred by some, but ultimately the destroyer of the Soviet Union.

You have one of your own to thank for that Andrei, Gorbachev.

Genuinely, what is the average Russian's historical opinion of Gorbachev now? Is he considered a traitor, a pawn of the West or a revisionist?

I would imagine he is considered a leader that weakened the position of Russia globally but I am as I say genuinely interested on how he is now perceived.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ahhh democracy. Demonised by many, abhorred by some, but ultimately the destroyer of the Soviet Union.

You have one of your own to thank for that Andrei, Gorbachev.

Genuinely, what is the average Russian's historical opinion of Gorbachev now? Is he considered a traitor, a pawn of the West or a revisionist?

I would imagine he is considered a leader that weakened the position of Russia globally but I am as I say genuinely interested on how he is now perceived.

He is considered either a traitor, or an idiot. Personally, I lean towards the second option. You are forgetting Yeltsin. He's the one who actually broke USSR up, just because he wanted to lose Gorby as his boss.

The Soviet setup was not undemocratic, but only the Party members could meaningfully vote, and the elections were open ballot. The setup you see in China today is a copy of Stalin-era USSR.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

35 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Does that include Tomasz? You can keep him!

Gladly! Can we also have your Scottish separatists?

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

He must've liked the interface? It certainly is not regulation. I also prefer TomTom to any built-in car navigation or smartphone.

Here is a story of some aviation enthusiast flying an Il-76 with an Azeri cockpit crew. They've got a dedicated navigator with his own cabin with a view, and he's got like five navigation systems, one of which is an off-the-shelf consumer item, too. The regulation ones can be quite clunky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yInZQ3z8H1s

It is mostly about NOx, allegedly causing acid rain. It is harmless to people. Here is the full spec.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars

Euro 6 is certainly ridiculous, requiring an additional liquid to fill for a diesel engine (an urea solution)

I take it your dropped sciences aged 11?

 

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

10 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Gladly! Can we also have your Scottish separatists?

Absolutely! but they have to leave their whisky!!!

[NickW + 2,714]

11 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They have multiple failover navigation systems.

"Blocks of rubber" was a Ukrainian fake, showing a cannibalized tank. "Egg boxes" are actually regulation spacers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHt0Q6eSI4

AFAIK, is the only missing part in the new Lada the airbag. Everything else has found a replacement in China, Turkey or Iran, and then some. They are also going to be cheaper. Emissions downgraded to Euro 2. You are going to be paying for the Green transition alone, Russians have been absolved.

If Russian military tech is so great why is Russia pulling T62's out of Museums storage for use in Ukraine because most of their modern weapons have been chewed up in Ukraine, often by western weapons? 

Russian tank crews must love that.

Hey Ivan - feel the nostalgia. You can drive the same tank Granddad drove in the 60's 😂

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

4 minutes ago, NickW said:

I take it your dropped sciences aged 11?

 

Why? One cannot drop sciences in a Soviet school. I have a computer science degree from UC Berkeley.

[NickW + 2,714]

6 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Why? One cannot drop sciences in a Soviet school. I have a computer science degree from UC Berkeley.

Fair enough. They just teach crap then

Nitrogen Dioxide is poisonous, both a chronic and acute toxin

Nitrogen dioxide poisoning - Wikipedia

The other issue Euro 6 covers is particulate pollution. 

In both cases there is a broadly linear relationship between increasing exposure to NO2 and PM and negative health effects

Are you also going to claim Carbon Monoxide is harmless (another emission dealt with by Euro standards) ? 

Edited August 16, 2022 by NickW

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 hour ago, NickW said:

If Russian military tech is so great why is Russia pulling T62's out of Museums storage for use in Ukraine because most of their modern weapons have been chewed up in Ukraine, often by western weapons? 

Russian tank crews must love that.

Hey Ivan - feel the nostalgia. You can drive the same tank Granddad drove in the 60's 😂

They are making T-90M's like hot cakes.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2022_global_security_army_industry/russian_army_receives_new_batch_of_t-90m_tanks_brem-1m_recovery_tanks_despite_economic_sanctions.html

AFAIK, only two of those have been lost in Ukraine?

Those T-62s sighted in Kherson remain a mystery. The going hypothesis is that they are going to give them to some old fart reservists who don't understand the new stuff. Don't think they crossed the Dnepr to the actual frontline / the southern beachhead, though.

Edited August 16, 2022 by Andrei Moutchkine

[NickW + 2,714]

1 minute ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They are making T-90M's like hot cakes.

https://www.armyrecognition.com/defense_news_august_2022_global_security_army_industry/russian_army_receives_new_batch_of_t-90m_tanks_brem-1m_recovery_tanks_despite_economic_sanctions.html

AFAIK, only two of those have been lost in Ukraine?

Those T-62s sighted in Kherson remain a mystery. The going hypothesis is that they are going to give them to some old fart reservists who don't understand the new stuff. Don't think they crossed the Dnepr to the actual frontline / the southern beachhead.

Its been very helpful. Several are now in bits in UK and US defence research labs.

[Andrei Moutchkine + 828]

1 minute ago, NickW said:

Its been very helpful. Several are now in bits in UK and US defence research labs.

Doubt it. It is just a T-72 with the latest electronic bits. Which are identical to yours. For example, Thales Catherine Gen II thermal sights.

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

30 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

He is considered either a traitor, or an idiot. Personally, I lean towards the second option. You are forgetting Yeltsin. He's the one who actually broke USSR, because he wanted to lose Gorby as his boss.

The Soviet setup was not undemocratic, but only the Party members could meaningfully vote, and the elections were open ballot. The setup you see in China today is a copy of Stalin-era USSR.

I do generally agree with this, apart from it being democratic. Its hardly democratic when a 150 or so Party members vote for a leader of 140 million people. The Chinese definitely follow this system, but its a system that unless you vote the right way your political career is toast, so hardly democratic.

Yeltsin was a drunk and ridiculed in the West. He was like a drunk Boris Johnson!

[Tomasz + 1,608]

To be honest for example Yelsin Russia had two faces for West

Weak junior partner with Mr Yes Kozyriev as FM

But at the SOME time face of General Lebedz.  He was very popular general.  Once he was drunk and angry and said there is Such big mess that they still cant find missed about 20 nuclear boms in suitcase.  IT was about a time Al- Kaida started bombing US ships and embassies. Im not sure if this 100% True but. Thats a big problem. 

[Rob Plant + 2,608]

Just now, Tomasz said:

Once he was drunk

I rather think he was drunk more than once!🤣