hemanthaa@mail.com

Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

Recommended Posts

On 8/10/2022 at 9:08 PM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Japan is comparatively rather small. It is plainly obvious that you would've attacked USSR with nukes and genocided everyone the earliest moment you thought you could get away with it. I am still taken aback what bloodthirsty, soulless monsters your leadership really were. Still likely are. USSR, on the other hand, just wanted to survive. It was always the one on the defense. Quite the opposite of how your Goebbels propaganda renders it now. I used to drink the American Kool Aid for a while myself, but I grew out of it. It is plainly obvious we've been had. So, let's replay, shall we? We have lost no Cold War, we quit it. Your turn now.

If the US would have had those nukes 3 years earlier the Germans wouldn’t have killed all those Russians. 5 years earlier there would not have been a WWII. Like Putin the world breeds land hungry war machines. The US so far, kicks their ass. It’s tech dude, lack of fear your religion teaches, all that glory. It’s bs. Best tech wins. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

55 minutes ago, Boat said:

If the US would have had those nukes 3 years earlier the Germans wouldn’t have killed all those Russians. 5 years earlier there would not have been a WWII. Like Putin the world breeds land hungry war machines. The US so far, kicks their ass. It’s tech dude, lack of fear your religion teaches, all that glory. It’s bs. Best tech wins. 

The US does not have a tech advantage on Russia. Very often, quite the opposite. It is the sheer numbers that are on your side. The US has always gone to war while also having a significant numerical advantage, no exceptions. So, please don't pretend to be the high-tech option? I think your secret weapon is having more of everything, not better.

Which religion, the Orthodoxy? The Orthodox are the Christian version of Shiite. They dwell on suffering and martyrdom, it makes them stronger. So, you better hope it doesn't get very popular in Russia again. (Which I don't think it does yet)

There was no practical feasibility in having nukes earlier. First, all the German physics guys had to be flushed by the Nazis and join your nuclear program instead.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

  • Like 1
  • Upvote 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2022 at 1:43 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

What if it won't harm Russia? Wouldn't the Europeans look stupid? Already do so to me, becoming a tool of American security policy instead of their own.

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

And to me Russia looks like tool of Chinese security policy. Who the real winner getting loads of cheap energy? But that is not really the discussion. 

I personally believe we need a stronger EU that can say NO to Russia, China and for that matter the US. More and more are starting to share this view in Europe. Chinas intentions are obvious to most Europeans. Russia has been exposed for what it is. 

It is time that Europe takes responsbillity for Europes security and interest in nearby areas like ME, Africa. US can with China and we can cooperate in Africa and ME. 

As I said - it is far too early to guess on the outcome, but what is clear to me is that Europeans now as a whole understand that the next 20 years wont be as easy as previous years. This makes policy changes much easier. 

Also - Russia cant stop the wind blowing or the sun shining. And they cant stop people insulating their houses better, driving slower etc. 

No, Russia and China have a mutually synergetic existence. And so could Europe, if only it had the power to give the boot to Uncle Sam. Who wouldn't mind if all of Eurasia goes to heck.

Russia has been exposed for what? I don't see how interethnic strife, left in a wake of Soviet breakdown, applies to the relationship with the West. There has never been an Empire which broke down entirely peacefully, and you haven't exactly been helping, by sponsoring "color revolutions" all around Russia. What does this expose you for?

If this is what Europeans understand, they are sheep programmed by the media. Russia is not the enemy.

Oil and gas are not only used for energy, but as a feedstock to make everything. The development level of society is very closely correlated with per capita energy use. Which is declining everywhere in the "collective West", except for the countries which are net exporters. Norway, Australia, USA. The only Asia Pacific country in decline is Japan. Everybody else is propelled by Chinese steamroller, which grows exponentially. Russia is already ahead of Germany on this metric. So, you go ahead and destroy your productivity and quality of life. I remember the fully sustainable lifestyle of USSR, where everything was reusable and made out of natural materials only. You'll quit the moment you have to hand-wash your child's soiled diapers.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/13/2022 at 4:31 AM, Andrei Moutchkine said:

The US does not have a tech advantage on Russia. Very often, quite the opposite. It is the sheer numbers that are on your side. The US has always gone to war while also having a significant numerical advantage, no exceptions. So, please don't pretend to be the high-tech option? I think your secret weapon is having more of everything, not better.

Which religion, the Orthodoxy? The Orthodox are the Christian version of Shiite. They dwell on suffering and martyrdom, it makes them stronger. So, you better hope it doesn't get very popular in Russia again. (Which I don't think it does yet)

There was no practical feasibility in having nukes earlier. First, all the German physics guys had to be flushed by the Nazis and join your nuclear program instead.

Really. Is that why we have seen Russian pilots with Garmin satnavs ducktaped to the dashboards in their cockpits. 

Or Russian reactive armour AKA blocks of rubber or egg boxes. 

Or the indigenous Lada Granta 2022

It's 2022 But The Lada Granta Classic Is Built Without Airbags And ABS (motor1.com)

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, NickW said:

Really. Is that why we have seen Russian pilots with Garmin satnavs ducktaped to the dashboards in their cockpits. 

Or Russian reactive armour AKA blocks of rubber or egg boxes. 

Or the indigenous Lada Granta 2022

It's 2022 But The Lada Granta Classic Is Built Without Airbags And ABS (motor1.com)

They have multiple failover navigation systems.

"Blocks of rubber" was a Ukrainian fake, showing a cannibalized tank. "Egg boxes" are actually regulation spacers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHt0Q6eSI4

AFAIK, is the only missing part in the new Lada the airbag. Everything else has found a replacement in China, Turkey or Iran, and then some. They are also going to be cheaper. Emissions downgraded to Euro 2. You are going to be paying for the Green transition alone, Russians have been absolved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

They have multiple failover navigation systems.

"Blocks of rubber" was a Ukrainian fake, showing a cannibalized tank. "Egg boxes" are actually regulation spacers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrHt0Q6eSI4

AFAIK, is the only missing part in the new Lada the airbag. Everything else has found a replacement in China, Turkey or Iran, and then some. They are also going to be cheaper. Emissions downgraded to Euro 2. You are going to be paying for the Green transition alone, Russians have been absolved.

So why use a Garmin GPS then?

--------------

Nothing to do with global warming. Euro grades are really about local air pollution. 

You are going to be paying with more asthma, COPD, lung cancer etc. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

11 hours ago, NickW said:

So why use a Garmin GPS then?

--------------

Nothing to do with global warming. Euro grades are really about local air pollution. 

You are going to be paying with more asthma, COPD, lung cancer etc. 

He must've liked the interface? It certainly is not regulation. I also prefer TomTom to any built-in car navigation or smartphone.

Here is a story of some aviation enthusiast flying an Il-76 with an Azeri cockpit crew. They've got a dedicated navigator with his own cabin with a view, and he's got like five navigation systems, one of which is an off-the-shelf consumer item, too. The regulation ones can be quite clunky

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yInZQ3z8H1s

It is mostly about NOx, allegedly causing acid rain. It is harmless to people. Here is the full spec.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_emission_standards#Emission_standards_for_passenger_cars

Euro 6 is certainly ridiculous, requiring an additional liquid to fill for a diesel engine (an urea solution)

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Sorry SOME of Europeans wanted policy like gain with sanctions and no pain for Europe. 

 Such sanctions over Ukraine like imposed was an overreaction in my opinion. 

You first froze 300 bilions hard earned russian dollars and sent ton of weapons for Ukraine. 

How Russia earned thesr money?  Buy sending commodities to Europe. 

You wanted simply to crash russian economy and People live in Russia with that.

Im not really sure but russian oficial narrative is that Russia was even not able to use money earned on NG sent to Europe Even after 24th February. 

And you thought it will be gain over Russia with no pain. 

Sorry maybe with Venezuela North Korea or Syria but not with Russia.

Freezing at once 300 bilions dollars and trying simple to cancel Russia economically and even culturally from world map even if Russia really did invade sovereign Ukraine for me is a casus belli for things much more serious than just only partly embargo on gaś to Europe. 

Next time really you should think first than react. 

For me it was overreaction for challenging western hegemony that is slowly ending because of Asia especially China. 

Invading Ukraine is still Invading sovereign country yes. But Ukraine is neither In NATO or EU. 

European Union nów from russian perspective probably looks like simple economy part of NATO. 

With all consequences for everything in probably very long time. 

And sorry a lot of People are asking for whom Such sanctions will be more devastating in long term. 

Europe is also really a very big looser in 2022. 

 

Edited by Tomasz
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Its simply.  You can cancel Russia or want something from them. Even if they really invade Ukraine. 

But sorry not these 2 things at the SOME time during this Winter in Europe. 

Edited by Tomasz
  • Upvote 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

But Lets Come back strictly to NG

SO that will be like that

USA will send more and more LNG to Europe

As a result HH and Europe price much Come much closer to themselves Than now in long term

SO US LNG producers will have huge profits but whole US economy I think a very high NG price in comparison with era before LNG exports

SO they will be finally SOME lobby and one Day US Senate will Say sorry guys in Europe but we need to take care of our economy first and limit exports to rather have cheap NG at home

And What then? 

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

More optimistic scenario is like that

Oil and NG will Flow to Europe in SOME kind of agreement

Term oil embargo probably mighty be extented because of hard reality 

Discout of russian oil will be somewhat a lot lower Than at maximum

Sanctions will stay in place.  But not many countries are really strongly interested in enforcing all of them because of their own National interests they will leak.  How much we will See. 

Mostly because sane People know Than European countries doesnt really want to destroy Russia.  Maybe Poles and Baltics. 

What West really wants is SOME kind of sober more competent Yeltsin.  Main problem is I dont think Russians want even much more competent Yeltsin as junior partner of West after all this cancel thing this year. 

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My gas stocks are doing great, the companies are getting even healthier, and the dividends keep rolling in. I love it when stupid voters vote in greedy, power grabbing politicians. 

"Hi. I'm from the government and I am here to help you. Face the other way and bend over. 😀 😀 😀

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, Michael Sanches said:

My gas stocks are doing great, the companies are getting even healthier, and the dividends keep rolling in. I love it when stupid voters vote in greedy, power grabbing politicians. 

"Hi. I'm from the government and I am here to help you. Face the other way and bend over. 😀 😀 😀

My oil and gas stocks are doing great, but in Russia. I get nothing out of it, because they severed the connection between ADRs / GDRs and principals. Unclear, who exactly were they going to punish, but their own investors? From now on, I'll try to get a ruble account and invest directly. The dividend yields approaching 10% are unprecedented elsewhere, but in Russian energy stocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

Well to be honest listen to Anas Alhaji. He said that OPEC will help Russia.  Not only not play against but try to help. 

The Second thought is he think Putin has rather very strong hand in Energy area against Europe. 

Then he said everybody is happy making big money over Europe now.  Even Iran and Venezuela are really  quite happy now 

And he is superbulish on oil in short to middle term

 

Edited by Tomasz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

Well to be honest listen to Anas Alhaji. He said that OPEC will help Russia.  Not only not play against but try to help. 

The Second thought is he think Putin has rather very strong hand in Energy area against Europe. 

Then he said everybody is happy making big money over Europe now.  Even Iran and Venezuela are really  quite happy now 

And he is superbulish on oil in short to middle term

 

OPEC is not as much helping Russia, but themselves. They are obviously interested in oil prices being high. Thanks to Russia/OPEC+ did OPEC turn into a functional organization. It was more about some Arab issues than oil before.

Another obvious one. Russia is the most affordable supplier of energy to Europe. Because, geography. Legislating against geography is a form of legislation against the laws of nature and bound to fail.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

On 8/12/2022 at 6:08 PM, Starschy said:

The Unemployment rate in EU is 6% and above in many Countries. Those numbers will increase and I think next February it looks way different.

.

Actually in the UK you cannot get staff to fill the vacancies, i guess a legacy of Brexit.

Those who are unemployed have no intention of working a day in their lives as they are lazy layabouts living off state benefits!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Actually in the UK you cannot get staff to fill the vacancies, i guess a legacy of Brexit.

Those who are unemployed have no intention of working a day in their lives as they are lazy layabouts living off state benefits!

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead :)

Does that include Tomasz? You can keep him!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Poland and all the Latverias will gladly leave the EU and form the Little British Empire with you instead :)

Ahhh democracy. Demonised by many, abhorred by some, but ultimately the destroyer of the Soviet Union.

You have one of your own to thank for that Andrei, Gorbachev.

Genuinely, what is the average Russian's historical opinion of Gorbachev now? Is he considered a traitor, a pawn of the West or a revisionist?

I would imagine he is considered a leader that weakened the position of Russia globally but I am as I say genuinely interested on how he is now perceived.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

(edited)

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Ahhh democracy. Demonised by many, abhorred by some, but ultimately the destroyer of the Soviet Union.

You have one of your own to thank for that Andrei, Gorbachev.

Genuinely, what is the average Russian's historical opinion of Gorbachev now? Is he considered a traitor, a pawn of the West or a revisionist?

I would imagine he is considered a leader that weakened the position of Russia globally but I am as I say genuinely interested on how he is now perceived.

He is considered either a traitor, or an idiot. Personally, I lean towards the second option. You are forgetting Yeltsin. He's the one who actually broke USSR up, just because he wanted to lose Gorby as his boss.

The Soviet setup was not undemocratic, but only the Party members could meaningfully vote, and the elections were open ballot. The setup you see in China today is a copy of Stalin-era USSR.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

Does that include Tomasz? You can keep him!

Gladly! Can we also have your Scottish separatists?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
You are posting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.