Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,552]

8 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Liz Truss is very right wing like Thatcher and she has appointed a very right wing cabinet. However before any comparisons can be made lets see what actions she takes before we judge. It is highly likely she will be in the job only 18 months as we will have a general election then and after Boris's numerous cock ups its not likely the Tories will get back in power.

Have a read Mr. Plant, a thought process of a village idiot. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-hugo-young

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

15 hours ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Have a read Mr. Plant, a thought process of a village idiot. 

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2013/apr/08/margaret-thatcher-hugo-young

Thatcher was a divisive figure, loathed and detested by many and adored by others in equal number.

What cannot be questioned is her strength as a leader and her steadfast will to follow through on her convictions.

A leader such as this is needed right now and time will tell if anyone is up to the job. I somehow doubt it.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

On 9/7/2022 at 3:15 AM, Rob Plant said:

In her defence its mainly because the majority of white men in the Tory parts are half wits, not because she's overly prioritising gender equality or diversity. UK politicians in the main are utterly useless.

We do have our own NG with new North Sea fields coming on stream this year so thats a big win, and we only buy LNG to sell to the EU.

We also have the largest wind farm in the world which is cheap energy. Lots of positives going forward compared to our near neighbours.

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

9 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

Yes thats true but I was speaking about the North Sea wind farms which as you say will likely be cheaper in the long run.

We just dont have the land mass you have in the US for much onshore wind so its the best we can do without being an eyesore for everyone.

Until the energy crisis all the investment was in renewables, now we are seeing investment back into oil & gas and also nuclear which is long overdue.

[notsonice + 1,243]

13 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You were doing quite well in your post until the last part.  Wind MAY be cheaper in the long run, (especially in the North Sea/Irish Sea if one can figure out how to STORE power even if it is giant NG filled salt caverns) but in the SHORT term, it is VASTLY more expensive.  In fact, it is far more expensive than onshore wind even with 2/3 cf.

if one can figure out how to STORE power ???

 

it is called taking the excess electricity from renewables and using it to create hydrogen gas......The electrolyzers are now under construction  in the UK, Europe Union, US , China ... all over the place and you will see many in production in 2023 and onwards...and yes the hyrdogen created will be cheaper than NG today in Europe.

 

Enjoy

Edited September 13, 2022 by notsonice

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

4 minutes ago, notsonice said:

if one can figure out how to STORE power ???

 

it is called taking the excess electricity from renewables and using it to create hydrogen gas......The electrolyzerss are now under construction both in the UK, Europe Union, US , China ... all over the place and you will see many in production in 2023 and onwards...and yes the hyrdogen created will be cheaper than NG today in Europe.

 

Enjoy

UK's hydrogen strategy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

 

[notsonice + 1,243]

2 minutes ago, Rob Plant said:

UK's hydrogen strategy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

 

nice......hope foot in the mouth reads it

[Boat + 1,323]

On 6/22/2022 at 7:18 AM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

For more on this, please read here:

 

That’s one way to spin it. Another is in spite of hardship claims the European economy is still growing including Germany. You boys put in a lot of time and effort wailing away why the bottom line is still fine. Even if Europe struggles a few months it’s not like Russia, Germany the UK and Europe after WWII. You whimps would have struggled back then. Look into a 5 year window most countries will be in better shape than Russia. 
Your proud of pollution like you are Russian tank commanders. A weird set of values indeed. The US has taken out militaries for less provocation. Enjoy your war, your pollution and feel free to join at the hip with China, Iran and N Korea. Y’all deserve each other. 

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

7 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

UK's hydrogen strategy

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1092555/hydrogen-strategy-update-to-the-market-july-2022.pdf

 

You mean UK's Fantasy dreams document

EDIT: My bad, UK's Fantasy dreams document with a heavy dose of Pork barrel spending. 

Edited September 13, 2022 by footeab@yahoo.com

[Starschy + 211]

The Paper is that bad not even worth reading. UK produced a Short - Cut with a few Key terms. Nothing compared to Germanie's Hydrogen papers.

They have real projects going.

https://www.dw.com/en/hydrogen-powered-trains-are-coming-to-germany/a-45525099

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Did you See what weapons Ukrainians mostly used last week? 

If you still dont understand why Europe now has 1 bilion euro margin call problem this Winter. 

Next time try some  some independent policy because its gonna be a really costly lesson which Europe will learn to mantain US hegemony.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

12 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

You mean UK's Fantasy dreams document

EDIT: My bad, UK's Fantasy dreams document with a heavy dose of Pork barrel spending. 

You mean like the largest offshore wind farms in the world are fantasy with the largest turbines in the world?

I believe those plans were ridiculed when proposed. Come back to me in 5 years time and lets see instead of saying they are fantasy when all youre doing is guessing. If you know the future why dont you win the lottery every week?

We will be mixing 15-20% hydrogen into the NG pipelines in a couple of years. The pipelines have already been lined to stop embrittlement and hydrogen loss (which has taken years to do). This will further reduce our reliance on NG and the exhorbitant cost whilst reducing our Co2 emissions at the same time. We certainly already have the wind power in place to do this with this set to expand enormously over the next few years so its just about building enough eloctrolyser capacity.

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

6 hours ago, Starschy said:

The Paper is that bad not even worth reading. UK produced a Short - Cut with a few Key terms. Nothing compared to Germanie's Hydrogen papers.

They have real projects going.

https://www.dw.com/en/hydrogen-powered-trains-are-coming-to-germany/a-45525099

 

You think that proposal is revolutionary? buying 14 hydrogen trains??? really??

They also appear to have no means of refuelling them currently so thats going to be a very expensive white elephant if they dont sort that out!

In Europe the trams have all been electrified for over a century (which I consider revolutionary at the time)

By the way how is that Russian front of over 1000KM you were bragging about a few weeks ago going? looks like theyre getting through thousands of body bags whilst desperately trying to retreat back to their homeland!

[Jeroen Goudswaard + 61]

20 hours ago, notsonice said:

if one can figure out how to STORE power ???

 

it is called taking the excess electricity from renewables and using it to create hydrogen gas......The electrolyzers are now under construction  in the UK, Europe Union, US , China ... all over the place and you will see many in production in 2023 and onwards...and yes the hyrdogen created will be cheaper than NG today in Europe.

 

Enjoy

Main issue is that electrolyzers cannot run as "on-off" switches if and when additional power is available. The economics would never add up; you have to earn back the investment. They are very expensive pieces of kit (a 200 MW electrolyzer is about $1bn; it's currently being built in Rotterdam), and we cannot afford having them doing nothing (or running on low capacity) because there is no power. Hydrogen has to come with dedicated generation capacity, be it renewable or nuclear. 

Edited September 14, 2022 by Jeroen Goudswaard

[notsonice + 1,243]

43 minutes ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

Main issue is that electrolyzers cannot run as "on-off" switches if and when additional power is available. The economics would never add up; you have to earn back the investment. They are very expensive pieces of kit (a 200 MW electrolyzer is about $1bn; it's currently being built in Rotterdam), and we cannot afford having them doing nothing (or running on low capacity) because there is no power. Hydrogen has to come with dedicated generation capacity, be it renewable or nuclear. 

Main issue is that electrolyzers cannot run as "on-off" switches if and when additional power is available????

where did you come up with this?

you ramp them up and down within minutes unlike a coal fired power plant....

 

I have worked with electolytic cells on an industrial basis for the past 25 years and yes not a problem with ramping up to full power from dead off within 15 minutes......you do step up power on a gradual basis over 15 minutes so you do not overwelm the power supply/electronics used in delivering power to the cells and the membranes and plates themselves. You do not flip the switch to full power from cold and you have to preheat cold electrolytic solutions up to 90 degrees celcius which is not a problem as you usual leave your tanks with a seperate heat circuit on at all times (you do not need heat in full production as the overpotential losses  results in the tanks maintaining 90 degrees by themselves) The power from renewables ramps up and down over time on a daily basis and is not an issue with ramp up ramp down.

 

As to the capital cost ...IE not using the electolysers 24/7 that is an issue as you will only get the cheap power off the grid usually at night or when with strong winds or with great sun. But anyone planning or using electorlytic cells to produce hydrogen are more than aware of the cyclical nature of cheap electricity. Same as building a solar farm. 

Hydrogen has to come with dedicated generation capacity, be it renewable or nuclear.???? is bullshit 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

5 hours ago, Tomasz said:

Did you See what weapons Ukrainians mostly used last week? 

If you still dont understand why Europe now has 1 bilion euro margin call problem this Winter. 

Next time try some  some independent policy because its gonna be a really costly lesson which Europe will learn to mantain US hegemony.

In Denmark energy consumption over winter is expected to drop by 20% due to low hanging fruits... 

Why are you so anti-Europe and pro Russia. I get in the short term Russia / Putin are winning financially. What about the longterm? 

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

2 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

We will be mixing 15-20% hydrogen into the NG pipelines in a couple of years. The pipelines have already been lined to stop embrittlement and hydrogen loss (which has taken years to do). This will further reduce our reliance on NG and the exhorbitant cost whilst reducing our Co2 emissions at the same time. We certainly already have the wind power in place to do this with this set to expand enormously over the next few years so its just about building enough eloctrolyser capacity.

This is exactly what @Tomasz and the Russians dont understand. This energy crisis is forcing the whole of Europe to implement longterm decisions that are long overdue. Hydrogen, Nuclear etc. Where is the longterm market for Russian gas outside China ?

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,187]

3 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You mean like the largest offshore wind farms in the world are fantasy with the largest turbines in the world?

I believe those plans were ridiculed when proposed. Come back to me in 5 years time and lets see instead of saying they are fantasy when all youre doing is guessing. If you know the future why dont you win the lottery every week?

We will be mixing 15-20% hydrogen into the NG pipelines in a couple of years. The pipelines have already been lined to stop embrittlement and hydrogen loss (which has taken years to do). This will further reduce our reliance on NG and the exhorbitant cost whilst reducing our Co2 emissions at the same time. We certainly already have the wind power in place to do this with this set to expand enormously over the next few years so its just about building enough eloctrolyser capacity.

Did I say anything about wind?  No... as said "document" is about Hydrogen fantasy matching an intermittent source of power and magic beans plans(none of which have any track record of even working(sole exception being ammonia) let alone economic realities) of turning infrastructure running on other energy sources to Hydrogen. 

Great reading skills..

[Rasmus Jorgensen + 1,169]

4 hours ago, Jeroen Goudswaard said:

Main issue is that electrolyzers cannot run as "on-off" switches if and when additional power is available. The economics would never add up; you have to earn back the investment. They are very expensive pieces of kit (a 200 MW electrolyzer is about $1bn; it's currently being built in Rotterdam), and we cannot afford having them doing nothing (or running on low capacity) because there is no power. Hydrogen has to come with dedicated generation capacity, be it renewable or nuclear. 

I have heard that tech is developing fast and something is being done on this. but otherwise - yes, this is a problem. However, don't underestimate the engeniering capabillity of western societies... especially when they under pressure. Just look at the how quickly we developed a covid vaccine. 

[Rob Plant + 2,747]

5 hours ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Did I say anything about wind?  No... as said "document" is about Hydrogen fantasy matching an intermittent source of power and magic beans plans(none of which have any track record of even working(sole exception being ammonia) let alone economic realities) of turning infrastructure running on other energy sources to Hydrogen. 

Great reading skills..

Wind and nuclear are going to power the electrolysers!

Talking of reading, try reading more it makes you more informed!

https://www.edfenergy.com/energy/nuclear-new-build-projects/sizewell-c/news-views/sizewell-c-and-hydrogen

https://www.rechargenews.com/transition/edf-plans-vast-hydrogen-production-at-uk-nuclear-plants/2-1-763048

 

[specinho + 457]

On 8/25/2022 at 2:28 PM, Rasmus Jorgensen said:

UK approves new nuclear propulsion regulations - Splash247

Lets be clear - high gas prices hurt in the short term, but necessity is the mother of innovation

@Tomasz - you should move to Russia. I am sure they would welcome a fan as big as you. 

From this Europeans perspective the World needs a strong EU to keep the US in check and the world also needs a united West to say NO to China. 

quote:" Lets be clear - high gas prices hurt in the short term, but necessity is the mother of innovation".....

There might  be some truth in comment that says EU is doing that onto themselves, for the sake of innovation, is it not?

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

You still dont understand- You are now de facto at war with Russia now. Sorry but watch television from last week.

So you dont get any gas this winter.

Its that simple. You may of course say you are not a war at all but de facto you are. 

Watch latest countr-offensive in Kharkov. It was not really such big success as you may think.

But just look carefully at weapons Ukrainians use. Its NATO weapons from start to the end. Its really that simple.

You dont really understand that maybe after this whole story Russia simply DONT WANT to sell you NG anynomore. 

As a result Asia will now have a lot of cheap NG from Russia after few years.

And Europe will get a lot more expensive LNG than Asia.

So basically you will become even much less price compepetive with Asia than even now because you will have a lot more expensive energy than now.

As a result USA will now sell Europe a lot of expensive LNG

USA will also reindustrialize once again at expense of Europe than will now deindustrialize starting from energy intensive industries. No not Russia will deindustrialize but Europe.

One russian expert said than Biden de facto now offered Europe something he called Reversed Marshall Plann.

I would rather say you commited IMHO something like energy suicide as European Union  for about next 5 to even 10 years.

Thats reality what yoi have done because Europe is so dependent on USA that Biden simply force to make this decision.

 

I can tell you also a quite less drastic version- you will need russia NG at least to 2030. Probably less even much less than now. But sorry its not as big problem as for Russia. Much less than for you.

Simply because this less amount of NG will be also a NG that is a LOT MORE EXPENSIVE than average lets say for last 20 years. So it will some kind of temporary even mid-term PERPETUM MOBILE for Russia untill all pipelines to Asia are finally built.

But not really for Europe. That seems after all this sanctions not really a problem of Russia but Europe problem.

 

PS

Except of Hungary of course so this is a real reason why you now want to punish Orban because he finnaly was the only one sane PM in european union.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Tomasz

[Tomasz + 1,608]

And also as for the war de facto proxy war Russia again  NATO

I have a rather simple question-  whether NATO has enough ammunition at all to win with Russia.

Because Ukraine really need A LOT OF AMMUNITION EVERY DAY. I I would also emphasize however that also the Soviet or post-Soviet ammunition. 

I'm not really making fun of myself, I really recommend that you explore this topic. It is worth starting with a certain RUSI report on this subject, unless the situation has radically changed since then.

The Russians are generally rather crap in this war, but if NATO was not prepared for a  of war like the former WW1 and WW2 wars in case of something such simple as ammunition really but really it does not reflect well either.

And an even better case is the other one.

Russia as a country a lot poorer than the entire NATO has weapons worse than NATO, which many get excited many people but, however is something that is not a terrible surprise.

It is rather a worse embarrassment for NATO  if you read this report carefully - it is a BRITISH RESPECTED INSTITUTE.

It turns out that Putin, who has allegedly gone completely crazy, and those not very wise Russian generals are still at least aware that they have great ammunition reserves as you can see.

And that in the production of ammunition, they may even compete with the entire NATO.

Moreover it really looks like the whole NATO- most powerful military alliance that IMHO was rathef full aware that the whole whole story with with Ukraine might end as didnt get enough ammunition.

And Russia is an economy not as small as the nominal GDP would indicate - I would definitely recommend it as a PPP 

But still is an economic and especially industrial dwarf to the People's Republic of China.

And even more so with the military alliance of Russia and China.

I advise you to seriously consider what this alliance has in terms of ammunition production.

Edited September 14, 2022 by Tomasz

[Jay McKinsey + 1,490]

30 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

And also as for the war de facto proxy war Russia again  NATO

I have a rather simple question-  whether NATO has enough ammunition at all to win with Russia.

Because Ukraine really need A LOT OF AMMUNITION EVERY DAY. I I would also emphasize however that also the Soviet or post-Soviet ammunition. 

I'm not really making fun of myself, I really recommend that you explore this topic. It is worth starting with a certain RUSI report on this subject, unless the situation has radically changed since then.

The Russians are generally rather crap in this war, but if NATO was not prepared for a  of war like the former WW1 and WW2 wars in case of something such simple as ammunition really but really it does not reflect well either.

And an even better case is the other one.

Russia as a country a lot poorer than the entire NATO has weapons worse than NATO, which many get excited many people but, however is something that is not a terrible surprise.

It is rather a worse embarrassment for NATO  if you read this report carefully - it is a BRITISH RESPECTED INSTITUTE.

It turns out that Putin, who has allegedly gone completely crazy, and those not very wise Russian generals are still at least aware that they have great ammunition reserves as you can see.

And that in the production of ammunition, they may even compete with the entire NATO.

Moreover it really looks like the whole NATO- most powerful military alliance that IMHO was rathef full aware that the whole whole story with with Ukraine might end as didnt get enough ammunition.

And Russia is an economy not as small as the nominal GDP would indicate - I would definitely recommend it as a PPP 

But still is an economic and especially industrial dwarf to the People's Republic of China.

And even more so with the military alliance of Russia and China.

I advise you to seriously consider what this alliance has in terms of ammunition production.

Another Russian Ammunition Warehouse Blows Up in Kherson

 

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Is Russia desperate now. Not really at all.  Read it carefully.

Even record breaking harvest from 1917 is there also. Yeap nearly 100 milion tons of wheat.

This commodity invetories worlwide is the best Putin can get probably now

https://twitter.com/chigrl/status/1570180939741036545

No aluminium nikel wheat at the same time worlwide? You simply must buy from Russia now.

 

Edited September 15, 2022 by Tomasz