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Is Europe heading for winter of discontent with extensive gas shortages?

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(edited)

But continuing NG
Whats worse 1 trilion euro longterm or 12 % GDP at once?

https://www.ft.com/content/2f860359-7fa0-4b79-aa47-f5a55606ce33

Study puts cost of halting Russian gas supply at 12% of German GDP

Germany in this case means more or rest all of EU has a really big problem

 7th or 8th package of sanctions is needed before winter.

 

Edited by Tomasz
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19 minutes ago, Tomasz said:

But continuing NG
Whats worse 1 trilion euro longterm or 12 % GDP at once?

https://www.ft.com/content/2f860359-7fa0-4b79-aa47-f5a55606ce33

Study puts cost of halting Russian gas supply at 12% of German GDP

Germany in this case means more or rest all of EU has a really big problem

 7th or 8th package of sanctions is needed before winter.

 

It will cost Russia even more.

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12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It will cost Russia even more.

Don't count on it. EU inflation already exceeds Russian levels. Russian fuel prices are actually going down.

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4 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Don't count on it. EU inflation already exceeds Russian levels. Russian fuel prices are actually going down.

Of course Russian fuel prices are going down, they can't sell all that they produce. The price of natural gas in western Russia will go to zero as they quit selling to Europe. Russia will then have to shutdown all that natural gas production that flows to Europe. That will hurt worse.

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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Well but maybe 1 trilion euro in case of germany is good price to sustain US hegemony

You are not allowed to use russian oil and NG

You cant buy chinese Huawei

Or its time to became independent

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3 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Of course Russian fuel prices are going down, they can't sell all that they produce. The price of natural gas in western Russia will go to zero as they quit selling to Europe. Russia will then have to shutdown all that natural gas production that flows to Europe. That will hurt worse.

Most of Russian gas is consumed domestically. What is the point of selling in exchange for stupid coupons you cannot use to buy anything? That damage is already done, you cannot do much worse.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine
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1 minute ago, Tomasz said:

Well but maybe 1 trilion euro in case of germany is good price to sustain US hegemony

You are not allowed to use russian oil and NG

You cant buy chinese Huawei

Or its time to became independent

Our russian oil and NG imports were almost zero before the sanctions. Remember, we produce more oil and gas than Russia. Who needs Huawei? We have no shortage of high quality electronics. 

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3 minutes ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Most of Russian gas is consumed domestically. What is the point of selling in exchange for stupid coupons you cannot use to buy anything? That damage is already done, you cannot do much worse.

It will be a massive hit to Russian GDP and all their plans to massively grow their natural gas export business is up in flames.

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12 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It will be a massive hit to Russian GDP and all their plans to massively grow their natural gas export business is up in flames.

The global demand for gas keeps going up every year. Except in Europe, where it was stale for a few years already. The less Russian energy Europe buys, the less competitive it becomes, as simple as that. The entire oil&gas industry makes up for some 15% of Russian GDP only.

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22 minutes ago, Jay McKinsey said:

Our russian oil and NG imports were almost zero before the sanctions. Remember, we produce more oil and gas than Russia. Who needs Huawei? We have no shortage of high quality electronics. 

Nope. You depended on Russia for nearly all of your diesel and a good portion of the kerosene. Still do, through 3rd parties. Your own oil got no heavier fractions.

Everybody needs Huawei. It is indispensable for any cellular operator. No other vendor oversees the entire protocol stack.

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1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Nope. You depended on Russia for nearly all of your diesel and a good portion of the kerosene. Still do, through 3rd parties. Your own oil got no heavier fractions.

Everybody needs Huawei. It is indispensable for any cellular operator. No other vendor oversees the entire protocol stack.

HaHa, by entire protocol you mean the Chinese gov't data stealing stack. I live in Silicon Valley, home to Apple and Google Android, we own the stack. 

Utter nonsense about diesel. In 2021 we imported 3% of our diesel and of that 8% came from Russia which means a total of .2% of our diesel came from Russia. The only kerosene we have imported from Russia in all of history occurred  in 1998 and in 2005. You do realize that all this data is readily available from the EIA?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_eppk_im0_mbbl_a.htm

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_4.htm

Domestic production versus total imports:

image.png.acb3b90835b89080753bc54ea5078768.png

Russian fraction of total diesel imports:

image.png.8f7a9c6409adbc686b41aeeb4ef9add9.png

Russian fraction of total kerosene imoports:

image.png.9c6279aa521405929d4ab085d95adf7a.png

 

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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The big trouble is now starting. I think the Re-nationalization of the European Energy Companies started a few weeks ago.

- Switzerland with at least 15 Billion help for their Energy Companies. (Guarantees)

- Germany assistance for UNIPER Germany Multiple Billions and mid-term State hold Company

-France  EDF de France will be nationalized according news today. (Meaning 100% for the French State)

EDF is the largest Nuclear Power Provider in Europe besides Rosatom. Check Finra and the open Bonds from EDF Billions

Those 3 Countries are very interconnected. Switzerland is buying French Nuclear Power and is selling across Europe.

Uniper Germany holds Water Power, Wind Power, Nuclear and is buying and selling  large quantities of Gas and Oil. (Large Trading Team) And don't forget those dozens of Germany Gas Companies in larger Cities and Urban areas.

(As example Stadtwerke Köln/Cologne. over 14000 People work for them. 70% of households, small Companies and the City consumeusing Gas. Cologne around 1 Mio. People, Urban 3.5 Mio. that includes Bonn too and the Region is about 10.5 Mio. People) Large Companies are there. Cologne is a rich City no questions. Ford is producing for decades there. (16000 Workers, Bayer Leverkusen (13900, Germany Railways 7200, RWE Power and Axa both above 5000.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

HaHa, by entire protocol you mean the Chinese gov't data stealing stack. I live in Silicon Valley, home to Apple and Google Android, we own the stack. 

Utter nonsense about diesel. In 2021 we imported 3% of our diesel and of that 8% came from Russia which means a total of .2% of our diesel came from Russia. The only kerosene we have imported from Russia in all of history occurred  in 1998 and in 2005. You do realize that all this data is readily available from the EIA?

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_eppk_im0_mbbl_a.htm

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_4.htm

Domestic production versus total imports:

image.png.acb3b90835b89080753bc54ea5078768.png

Russian fraction of total diesel imports:

image.png.8f7a9c6409adbc686b41aeeb4ef9add9.png

Russian fraction of total kerosene imoports:

image.png.9c6279aa521405929d4ab085d95adf7a.png

 

 

Neither Apple nor Google own the protocol stack. They only deal with handsets, which uses a small fraction.

So, where else do you get your diesel and kerosene from, if there is none of it in your domestic oil?

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1 hour ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Neither Apple nor Google own the protocol stack. They only deal with handsets, which uses a small fraction.

So, where else do you get your diesel and kerosene from, if there is none of it in your domestic oil?

It seems you know as much about oil as you do software. 

Most of the diesel fuel consumed in the United States is produced in U.S. oil refineries

U.S. oil/petroleum refineries produce most of the diesel fuel the United States consumes. Most of the diesel fuel consumed in the United States is distillate fuel with a sulfur content of 15 parts per million or less, which is called ultra-low sulfur distillate/diesel or ULSD. ULSD is used as diesel fuel and as heating oil. Biomass-based diesel fuels also contribute to the supply of diesel fuel.

In 2021, U.S. refineries produced about 1.63 billion barrels (68.35 billion gallons) of ULSD, and total U.S. ULSD consumption for all uses was about 1.42 billion barrels (59.82 billion gallons). Even though ULSD production was higher than ULSD consumption, the United States imported about 0.10 billion barrels (4.31 billion gallons) of ULSD, of which about 45% were from Canada. Total ULSD imports were equal to about 7% of total U.S. ULSD consumption in 2021. The United States exported about 0.33 billion barrels (14.04 billion gallons) of ULSD in 2021. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/where-our-diesel-comes-from.php

Light crude oils have a high API gravity >35, they will produce more of the value products such as gasoline, kerosene and diesel. https://www.intertek.com/petroleum/crude-oil-types/

image.thumb.png.91f335e4cd6e12335040fa85d46be454.png

US oil is fantastic for making low sulfur diesel and kerosene.

The idea that a Chinese company owns the protocol stack instead of Silicon Valley is farcical. 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

It seems you know as much about oil as you do software. 

Most of the diesel fuel consumed in the United States is produced in U.S. oil refineries

U.S. oil/petroleum refineries produce most of the diesel fuel the United States consumes. Most of the diesel fuel consumed in the United States is distillate fuel with a sulfur content of 15 parts per million or less, which is called ultra-low sulfur distillate/diesel or ULSD. ULSD is used as diesel fuel and as heating oil. Biomass-based diesel fuels also contribute to the supply of diesel fuel.

In 2021, U.S. refineries produced about 1.63 billion barrels (68.35 billion gallons) of ULSD, and total U.S. ULSD consumption for all uses was about 1.42 billion barrels (59.82 billion gallons). Even though ULSD production was higher than ULSD consumption, the United States imported about 0.10 billion barrels (4.31 billion gallons) of ULSD, of which about 45% were from Canada. Total ULSD imports were equal to about 7% of total U.S. ULSD consumption in 2021. The United States exported about 0.33 billion barrels (14.04 billion gallons) of ULSD in 2021. https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/diesel-fuel/where-our-diesel-comes-from.php

Light crude oils have a high API gravity >35, they will produce more of the value products such as gasoline, kerosene and diesel. https://www.intertek.com/petroleum/crude-oil-types/

image.thumb.png.91f335e4cd6e12335040fa85d46be454.png

US oil is fantastic for making low sulfur diesel and kerosene.

The idea that a Chinese company owns the protocol stack instead of Silicon Valley is farcical. 

OK, you refine your own diesel. Where do you get the crude for it? All of US newfound oil riches are from fracking. Those are not at all WTI-grade, stop trying to weasel out of the argument?

Silly Valley owns jack. The closest you come is via Nokia/Ericsson (which have nothing to do with original companies, but are informal offshoots of Ma Bell's) Needless to say, are those not exactly Silicon Valley.

I actually do have a computer science degree from Berkeley and used to work in Silicon Valley myself, you know?

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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(edited)

3 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

OK, you refine your own diesel. Where do you get the crude for it? All of US newfound oil riches are from fracking. Those are not at all WTI-grade, stop trying to weasel out of the argument?

Silly Valley owns jack. The closest you come is via Nokia/Ericsson (which have nothing to do with original companies, but are informal offshoots of Ma Bell's) Needless to say, are those not exactly Silicon Valley.

I actually do have a computer science degree from Berkeley and used to work in Silicon Valley myself, you know?

You have got to be kidding! Almost all West Texas Intermediate is from fracking. Its home formation is the Permian Basin in West Texas, the epicenter of the fracking boom. The heavy oil we do import is mostly from Canada.

Tight oil (also known as shale oil, shale-hosted oil or light tight oil, abbreviated LTO) is light crude oil contained in petroleum-bearing formations of low permeability, often shale or tight sandstone.[1] Economic production from tight oil formations requires the same hydraulic fracturing and often uses the same horizontal well technology used in the production of shale gas.

The WTI oil grade is also known as Texas light sweet, although oil produced from any location can be considered WTI if the oil meets required qualifications. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate

 

There has been a trend, due to advancements in oil drilling and fracking, of West Texas Intermediate becoming cheaper than Brent Crude oil. Prior to this, Brent Crude tended to be cheaper than West Texas Crude.4

 This has been dubbed the American shale revolution, and the increased production led oil prices to fall from above $100 to below $50 from 2014 to 2015.https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp

 

 

What Is West Texas Intermediate (WTI)?

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a specific grade of crude oil and one of the main three benchmarks in oil pricing, along with Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is known as a light sweet oil because it contains between 0.24% and 0.34% sulfur, making it "sweet," and has a low density (specific gravity), making it "light."1

 

WTI is the underlying commodity of the New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) oil futures contract and is considered a high-quality oil that is easily refined.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a light, sweet crude oil that serves as one of the main global oil benchmarks.
  • It is sourced primarily from inland Texas and is one of the highest quality oils in the world, which is easy to refine.
  • WTI is the underlying commodity for the NYMEX's oil futures contract.
  • WTI is often compared to Brent crude, which is an oil benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil contracts based on oil extracted in the North Sea.

Understanding West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

WTI is the main oil benchmark for North America as it is sourced from the United States, primarily from the Permian Basin. The oil comes mainly from Texas. It then travels through pipelines where it is refined in the Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico. The main delivery point for physical exchange and price settlement for WTI is Cushing, Oklahoma.

 
Since the shale boom in the U.S., which resulted in a production increase of WTI, the price of WTI has gone down https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wti.asp 
 

Higher Permian production, constrained infrastructure increase spread between WTI oil hubs

graph of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate in two locations, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters

Increasing production of crude oil in the Permian Basin in western Texas, and parts of New Mexico, has outpaced pipeline infrastructure to move the crude to refineries, causing prices for crude in the Permian Basin (at Midland, Texas) to fall below similar crudes priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. While the price difference between Midland and Cushing has been increasing for almost a year, recent refinery outages in the region caused it to widen substantially. Several infrastructure projects that will allow more crude to flow from the Permian to the U.S. Gulf Coast are expected to come online soon, which should cause this price difference to narrow.

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) estimates that August Permian Basin oil production will be almost 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d), 0.3 million bbl/d more than a year ago. With increased production, any loss of refinery demand can increase downward pressure on crude oil prices in Midland. A series of recent outages at refineries located in or near the Permian, and along the U.S. Gulf Coast caused the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price at Midland to fall $17.50 per barrel below the price at Cushing, a record difference. The previous record was set in late 2012 at a time when production also exceeded pipeline takeaway capacity. In 2013, the price gap closed when Magellan Midstream Partners reversed and repurposed part of its Longhorn Pipeline to move crude from the Permian to Houston. Previously, this pipeline had moved refined petroleum products from Houston, Texas to El Paso, Texas.

In addition to the 225,000-bbl/d Longhorn Pipeline, the first expansions on the Sunoco Logistics Partners Permian Express pipelines and other portions of Sunoco's pipeline system also came online in 2013. However, the increase in crude oil production has now outgrown these expansions, and additional pipeline expansions are under construction. Magellan's 300,000-bbl/d BridgeTex Pipeline, which will move crude from west Texas to refining centers in Houston, Texas City, and Galveston, is expected to begin operating soon. Beginning in early 2015, the Cactus Pipeline, with an expected capacity of 200,000 bbl/d, will move Permian crude south to connect with an expanded Eagle Ford Pipeline that will deliver crude to Corpus Christi, Texas.

map of Permian Basin infrastructure changes, as explained in the article text
 
Yep, Silicon Valley owns the stack and no one here cares about Hwawei.

 

Edited by Jay McKinsey

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(edited)

2 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

You have got to be kidding! Almost all West Texas Intermediate is from fracking. Its home formation is the Permian Basin in West Texas, the epicenter of the fracking boom. The heavy oil we do import is mostly from Canada.

Tight oil (also known as shale oil, shale-hosted oil or light tight oil, abbreviated LTO) is light crude oil contained in petroleum-bearing formations of low permeability, often shale or tight sandstone.[1] Economic production from tight oil formations requires the same hydraulic fracturing and often uses the same horizontal well technology used in the production of shale gas.

The WTI oil grade is also known as Texas light sweet, although oil produced from any location can be considered WTI if the oil meets required qualifications. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/West_Texas_Intermediate

 

There has been a trend, due to advancements in oil drilling and fracking, of West Texas Intermediate becoming cheaper than Brent Crude oil. Prior to this, Brent Crude tended to be cheaper than West Texas Crude.4

This has been dubbed the American shale revolution, and the increased production led oil prices to fall from above $100 to below $50 from 2014 to 2015.https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/052615/what-difference-between-brent-crude-and-west-texas-intermediate.asp

 

 

What Is West Texas Intermediate (WTI)?

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is a specific grade of crude oil and one of the main three benchmarks in oil pricing, along with Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is known as a light sweet oil because it contains between 0.24% and 0.34% sulfur, making it "sweet," and has a low density (specific gravity), making it "light."1

 

WTI is the underlying commodity of the New York Mercantile Exchange's (NYMEX) oil futures contract and is considered a high-quality oil that is easily refined.

 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a light, sweet crude oil that serves as one of the main global oil benchmarks.
  • It is sourced primarily from inland Texas and is one of the highest quality oils in the world, which is easy to refine.
  • WTI is the underlying commodity for the NYMEX's oil futures contract.
  • WTI is often compared to Brent crude, which is an oil benchmark for two-thirds of the world's oil contracts based on oil extracted in the North Sea.

Understanding West Texas Intermediate (WTI)

WTI is the main oil benchmark for North America as it is sourced from the United States, primarily from the Permian Basin. The oil comes mainly from Texas. It then travels through pipelines where it is refined in the Midwest and the Gulf of Mexico. The main delivery point for physical exchange and price settlement for WTI is Cushing, Oklahoma.

 
Since the shale boom in the U.S., which resulted in a production increase of WTI, the price of WTI has gone down https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wti.asp 
 

Higher Permian production, constrained infrastructure increase spread between WTI oil hubs

graph of spot prices of West Texas Intermediate in two locations, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, Thomson Reuters

Increasing production of crude oil in the Permian Basin in western Texas, and parts of New Mexico, has outpaced pipeline infrastructure to move the crude to refineries, causing prices for crude in the Permian Basin (at Midland, Texas) to fall below similar crudes priced at Cushing, Oklahoma. While the price difference between Midland and Cushing has been increasing for almost a year, recent refinery outages in the region caused it to widen substantially. Several infrastructure projects that will allow more crude to flow from the Permian to the U.S. Gulf Coast are expected to come online soon, which should cause this price difference to narrow.

The latest U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) estimates that August Permian Basin oil production will be almost 1.7 million barrels per day (bbl/d), 0.3 million bbl/d more than a year ago. With increased production, any loss of refinery demand can increase downward pressure on crude oil prices in Midland. A series of recent outages at refineries located in or near the Permian, and along the U.S. Gulf Coast caused the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price at Midland to fall $17.50 per barrel below the price at Cushing, a record difference. The previous record was set in late 2012 at a time when production also exceeded pipeline takeaway capacity. In 2013, the price gap closed when Magellan Midstream Partners reversed and repurposed part of its Longhorn Pipeline to move crude from the Permian to Houston. Previously, this pipeline had moved refined petroleum products from Houston, Texas to El Paso, Texas.

In addition to the 225,000-bbl/d Longhorn Pipeline, the first expansions on the Sunoco Logistics Partners Permian Express pipelines and other portions of Sunoco's pipeline system also came online in 2013. However, the increase in crude oil production has now outgrown these expansions, and additional pipeline expansions are under construction. Magellan's 300,000-bbl/d BridgeTex Pipeline, which will move crude from west Texas to refining centers in Houston, Texas City, and Galveston, is expected to begin operating soon. Beginning in early 2015, the Cactus Pipeline, with an expected capacity of 200,000 bbl/d, will move Permian crude south to connect with an expanded Eagle Ford Pipeline that will deliver crude to Corpus Christi, Texas.

map of Permian Basin infrastructure changes, as explained in the article text
 
Yep, Silicon Valley owns the stack and no one here cares about Hwawei.

 

Not convinced. Most traded commodity has very little to do with actual oil markets, In fact, the best thing for anybody interested in actual principal commodity is avoiding commodity exchanges altogether. Always. The best they can get there is a break-even price.

AFAIK, are you originally set up to get most of your heavier crude from Venezuela. Don't think Canadian bitumen is really a thing.

Most of the protocol stack lives in the backend. Show me significant American companies producing cellular backend equipment? Here in Austria, all but one provider officially dropped Huawei after US pressure. All still use Huawei all over, though. I can see their MACs. So, it remains TBD whether a cellular network without Huawei is viable at all.

If you want a frontend example, have you got any of those LTE USB sticks to connect a laptop to a cellular network that is not Huawei-made? There appear to be none left anywhere in Europe. I currently use a 2nd-hand one branded for Kazakh operator called Megacom. Works like a charm.

Edited by Andrei Moutchkine

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(edited)

16 hours ago, Andrei Moutchkine said:

Not convinced. Most traded commodity has very little to do with actual oil markets, In fact, the best thing for anybody interested in actual principal commodity is avoiding commodity exchanges. Always. The best they can get there is a break-even price.

AFAIK, are you originally set up to get most of your heavier crude from Venezuela. Don't think Canadian bitumen is really a thing.

Most of the protocol stack lives in the backend. Show me significant American companies producing cellular backend equipment? Here in Austria, all but one provider officially dropped Huawei after US pressure. All still use Huawei all over. I can see their MACs. So, it remains TBD whether a cellular network without Huawei is viable at all.

In 2023, the EIA forecasts U.S. crude production to increase further 13.0 million b/d which translates to record- high production on an annual average basis. According to the EIA, most of the U.S. crude oil production is WTI type crude oil with API gravity between 40 and 45 degrees. This is significant for the WTI benchmark, as it underscores the similarity in quality between the new oil production and the WTI pricing reference. https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/whitepapers/growing-relevance-of-us-domestic-crude-oil-grades.html

This table shows production by API Category. WTI is defined as oil with an API of approximately 40-42 and you can see that is what we produce the most of. Some WTI contracts go as low as 37 and as high as 44.

image.thumb.png.4e2083c7facf53595248f0553801a8d3.png

https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/xls/api-history.xlsx

 

image.thumb.png.ae874c18c3f9f42105dbba3ab0fe2a5b.png

image.thumb.png.79adba9ef55a1dc9ea4c3acbf613a721.png

u.s.tight_oil_production.jpg

 

Here are our oil imports vs domestic production, 1/3 rd of our gross total oil is imported.

image.png.24eef95a74df94032104b4b0c7c27a87.png

Here are our imports of oil by country: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_epc0_im0_mbbl_a.htm

Last year 62% of imports from Canada, 10% Mexico, 5% Saudi, 3% Russia, etc.

We are a net exporter of both diesel and kerosene with no oil from Russia this past quarter:

image.png.aa9efc8c7056ab5ab1f093a334256269.png

Domestic Production

image.png.12ea45f743bdfc9325e0784017b43914.png

image.png.e8fadfb227f71c7995bc2bdab0451b5e.png

Imports

image.png.a29cdb0c6b4b3db4ebb4299fdb0c9fb7.png

Exports

image.png.d58c1be89386aaa48294ed488d5a698a.png

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_4.htm

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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So as of today we finally know that in Canada are 6 of 8 turbines for NS I 

Only just 2 left in Portovaya

So it's simple - no turbines no NG.

If you really like to put sanctions on yourselves you can continue this game. But winter is coming 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Tomasz said:

So as of today we finally know that in Canada are 6 of 8 turbines for NS I 

Only just 2 left in Portovaya

So it's simple - no turbines no NG.

If you really like to put sanctions on yourselves you can continue this game. But winter is coming 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think there is already a deal - the turbines are coming back.

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thanks to global warming.. This winter they might have hope......... that the cycle is on warming and not on global cooling........... 😈

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The great protest against the Russian terms of gas purchases did not work out. Only a few countries refused to buy gas for rubles.

 Who has cut themselves off and how is they doing? Who was driving these suicide actions?

Poland (PGNiG) decided to boycott payments in the "gas for rubles" system, as a result of this decision, gas from Russia stopped flowing to Poland on April 27. The same choice was made by Bulgaria (Bulgargaz), where deliveries stopped on exactly the same day. 

However, others did not follow us en masse. Only a few countries and commercial customers have cut off direct supplies of Russian gas. The quantities weren't that impressive either. On April 27, Russian gas stopped flowing to Poland (PGNiG - 9 bn / y according to GOST) and Bulgaria (Bulgargaz - 3.3 bn / y), and on May 21 to Finland (Gasum - 1.8). These companies are responsible for all imports to these countries. It is a bit different with companies from the west. On May 31, gas stopped flowing to GasTerra from the Netherlands (2 billion of the 12 billion imported by the Netherlands), and on June 1, Orsted Salg (2 billion) from Denmark. However, these countries have a completely different purchasing structure, in which this will not be felt at all. Therefore, their governments could safely prohibit them from switching to the new fee scheme. And the international Shell Energy Europe, buying 1.2 billion m 3/ y for Germany means little in the 40 billionth import of this country.

With the exception of the Polish contract, the others were microscopic in size or were about to end. Yet Gazprom has 54 contracts concluded in total. The "abandoned" ones are also included in them, as only their implementation was suspended by Gazprom due to the lack of payments. Their size is over 18 billion m 3 per year (out of 155 billion EU imports from Russia in 2021). However, much of this gas flows through intermediaries, which is why the Russians estimate the reduction in supplies at 5-10%. So the effect of this heroic act for Russia is imperceptible.

Only that in Poland, as we know perfectly well, the gas source has not changed, only an intermediary has arrived. The change was quite symbolic not only in Poland. Lithuania also announced long ago that it would not import any Russian gas. Except that it is different with the Baltic countries, one (Lithuania) says that neither, and the other (Estonia or Latvia) buys from Russia and delivers to its neighbors. Latvia, despite the declaration, has recently resumed gas purchases from Russia, the gas balance of the Baltic states and Finland connected with them was simply not closing. Even in the summer.

The example of Finland is also good. Discarding Russian gas for rubles, it has sharply increased purchases of ... Russian LNG. A completely different contract, although also a long-term one, but no rubles payments in liquefied gas transactions. Novatek supplies this gas from the Kriogaz terminal in Wysocka on the Baltic Sea, because it is the closest and cheapest. And everything is fine. This terminal can liquefy 600,000 tons of gas annually (almost one billion cubic meters ) , and the largest buyers in it are ... Lithuania and Finland.

On the other hand, large recipients (Germany, for example) could not afford it without dropping (according to Viktor Orbán's phrase) "a nuclear bomb on their own economy". The Germans, like them (langsam, langsam aber sicher ...) waited out the flood of raised and indignant voices at the Russian "blackmail". And they became an intermediary deciding whether to export Russian gas to its neighbors or not. Moreover, they later announced that they would take responsibility for the energy security of our region, which means that instead of playing our position between Germany and Russia, we will be played by Germany, supported by gas from Russia.

Who was the main culprit behind these suicidal decisions? Of course, they were undertaken by the governments of several countries neighboring with Russia. However, the driving force was Brussels, which staunchly opposed the recognition of the requirement to open a new account and convert euros or dollars to rubles. Her position was painfully principled. Payment in the currency of the contract was acceptable (after all, nothing changed), but the conversion to rubles was considered a breach of sanctions. This was held firmly in the European Commission, the highest-ranking Brussels bureaucrats, led by Ursula von der Leyen, reminded of it, and swore that gas for rubles was a breach of European sanctions. However, there was no legal basis for it, it was written in one of thousands of FAQ documents (answers to frequently asked questions). And the consequences could be terrible - the position of the Commission threatened to cut the EU immediately from supplies of 40% of imported gas - a key raw material for industry and energy. This would lead to an immediate energy and economic disaster.

No wonder then that serious players, seeing the unfolding industrial (gas consumption and production) and social crisis - horrendously growing bills for households, which cannot be refunded from taxpayers for too long - behaved rationally.

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On 7/6/2022 at 10:51 AM, Blackbag99 said:

Too expensive to mine, too expensive to move. Full stop end of story!

$396 per ton. Hmm 

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(edited)

1 hour ago, KeyboardWarrior said:

$396 per ton. Hmm 

$426 per ton, Too expensive to burn,

image.png.3e4b6a1f313cfcefe09b2025508cf11c.png

Edited by Jay McKinsey
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On 6/22/2022 at 8:18 AM, hemanthaa@mail.com said:

Europe import more coal

As the European gas shortages become more and more acute, the companies in the power sector are being allowed to use coal as a substitute in proportion to the scale of the challenge. The issue can only get worse in the cold winter months ahead, unless the bull is taken by the horns - without beating about the bush as if there was no such a crisis.

For more on this, please read here:

 

So much for the Greenies ending the use of fossil fuels! The EU and especially Germany under that bitch Merkel was warned; nobody seems to take the fact that history tends to repeat itself.

Come winter with little sun and frozen wind farms; they will be back to burning wood.

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