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Ron Wagner

Putin and Xi Bet on the Global South

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https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-and-xis-bet-on-the-global-south-11657897521?page=1

IMHO South America and Central America have a long and good (though not perfect) history with America and Europe. The same would be true, to a lesser extent, with Africa. I do not see China or Russia having the same advantage. I do think we need to put a lot more emphasis on our trade relationships with both areas.  What do you think? RCW

 

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July 15, 2022 11:05 am ET
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In a recent appearance before a Kremlin-friendly financial conference, Russian leader Vladimir Putin was typically direct and self-assured. Not only is his economy surviving Western sanctions, he declared, but the U.S. and its allies are missing a significant shift in the international alignment revealed by the world’s reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.

“They do not seem to notice that new powerful centers have formed on the planet,” the Russian leader said. “We are talking about revolutionary changes in the entire system of international relations. These changes are fundamental and pivotal.”

In many ways, that proclamation captures a giant global bet at the heart of Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He’s well aware that he’s lost a lot of ground, probably permanently, in traditional East-West relations because of the brutal Ukraine invasion. But he is gambling that he can make up for that by building a new diplomatic, economic and security network along a North-South axis.

His key ally in this enterprise is, of course, China, which has been working along this same North-South axis for years, showering trade and investment on Asia, Latin America and Africa, often in nations long seen as diplomatic backwaters. These nations aren’t big economic or diplomatic players, but many of them are rapidly growing markets positioned on strategic trade routes, and a number possess the critical minerals needed in the transformation to clean-energy technologies.

?width=700&height=467

China’s Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin (center) meet with their BRICS allies in Brasilia, November 2019. From left, leaders Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Narenda Modi of India and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.PHOTO: KYODO NEWS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Taken together, these efforts amount to an attempt by Russia and China to rewire global power flows in ways that will work to their advantage—and to the West’s disadvantage—for years to come. Success in this effort is far from assured, but it could represent one of the most significant long-term results of the Ukraine crisis.


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Mr. Putin has some reason to feel good about his plan so far. On the economic front, he is making significant oil sales to India and exploring potential natural-gas sales to Pakistan to start making up for lost Western markets. On the diplomatic front, 35 countries—representing almost 50% of the world population—abstained or voted no on a March United Nations resolution condemning the Ukraine invasion, while 58 nations, including Mexico, Egypt, Singapore, Indonesia and Qatar, abstained from a later vote to expel Russia from the UN’s Human Rights Council.

On the 100th day of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr. Putin received a visit from Macky Sall, president of Senegal and current head of the African Union, who pleaded for more Russian grain and fertilizer. More recently, Mr. Putin received a warm reception from the presidents of China, India, Brazil and South Africa at a virtual summit meeting of the so-called Bric countries. That group, which includes four of the world’s 10 most populous nations, pointedly avoided any condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was shunned by Western nations at a meeting of top diplomats from the Group of 20 industrialized nations but found that his Brazilian, Indian and Argentine counterparts were willing to meet with him.

“I don’t think there’s a formal realignment, but I think the efforts to keep a lot of countries uncommitted are proving quite successful,” says Robert Gates, former U.S. secretary of defense and director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The field is open for maneuvering partly because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability.

For their part, the Biden administration and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have focused more on how well Western unity has held up in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Certainly that effort has been a significant success. NATO has been revitalized, while the European Union seems newly relevant and has invited Ukraine to join. Western resolve to punish Moscow economically and to help Ukraine militarily has been broad and robust. Similarly, U.S. efforts to draw in Japan, South Korea and Australia to counter both Russia and China have borne fruit.

Yet China and Russia are calculating that this focus on Western cohesion represents old, Cold War-era thinking that simply isn’t as relevant as it used to be. That bet includes some wishful thinking, but it also reflects new realities.

In part, the field is open for Russian and Chinese maneuvering because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability. To some extent, the U.S. neglected swaths of the globe as it focused its energies and its budgets on the war on terror for the last two decades and, more recently, on the Trump administration’s trade battles with China.

 

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On 7/20/2022 at 6:26 AM, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-and-xis-bet-on-the-global-south-11657897521?page=1

IMHO South America and Central America have a long and good (though not perfect) history with America and Europe. The same would be true, to a lesser extent, with Africa. I do not see China or Russia having the same advantage. I do think we need to put a lot more emphasis on our trade relationships with both areas.  What do you think? RCW

 

im-584455im-584455?width=10&height=5

JEFFREY SMITH

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By Gerald F. Seib
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July 15, 2022 11:05 am ET
 
SAVE
 
PRINT
TEXT
177
Listen to article
Length(14 minutes)
Queue

In a recent appearance before a Kremlin-friendly financial conference, Russian leader Vladimir Putin was typically direct and self-assured. Not only is his economy surviving Western sanctions, he declared, but the U.S. and its allies are missing a significant shift in the international alignment revealed by the world’s reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.

“They do not seem to notice that new powerful centers have formed on the planet,” the Russian leader said. “We are talking about revolutionary changes in the entire system of international relations. These changes are fundamental and pivotal.”

In many ways, that proclamation captures a giant global bet at the heart of Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He’s well aware that he’s lost a lot of ground, probably permanently, in traditional East-West relations because of the brutal Ukraine invasion. But he is gambling that he can make up for that by building a new diplomatic, economic and security network along a North-South axis.

His key ally in this enterprise is, of course, China, which has been working along this same North-South axis for years, showering trade and investment on Asia, Latin America and Africa, often in nations long seen as diplomatic backwaters. These nations aren’t big economic or diplomatic players, but many of them are rapidly growing markets positioned on strategic trade routes, and a number possess the critical minerals needed in the transformation to clean-energy technologies.

?width=700&height=467

China’s Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin (center) meet with their BRICS allies in Brasilia, November 2019. From left, leaders Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Narenda Modi of India and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.PHOTO: KYODO NEWS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Taken together, these efforts amount to an attempt by Russia and China to rewire global power flows in ways that will work to their advantage—and to the West’s disadvantage—for years to come. Success in this effort is far from assured, but it could represent one of the most significant long-term results of the Ukraine crisis.


NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP

Grapevine

A weekly look at our most colorful, thought-provoking and original feature stories on the business of life.

PREVIEW
 
SUBSCRIBED

Mr. Putin has some reason to feel good about his plan so far. On the economic front, he is making significant oil sales to India and exploring potential natural-gas sales to Pakistan to start making up for lost Western markets. On the diplomatic front, 35 countries—representing almost 50% of the world population—abstained or voted no on a March United Nations resolution condemning the Ukraine invasion, while 58 nations, including Mexico, Egypt, Singapore, Indonesia and Qatar, abstained from a later vote to expel Russia from the UN’s Human Rights Council.

On the 100th day of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr. Putin received a visit from Macky Sall, president of Senegal and current head of the African Union, who pleaded for more Russian grain and fertilizer. More recently, Mr. Putin received a warm reception from the presidents of China, India, Brazil and South Africa at a virtual summit meeting of the so-called Bric countries. That group, which includes four of the world’s 10 most populous nations, pointedly avoided any condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was shunned by Western nations at a meeting of top diplomats from the Group of 20 industrialized nations but found that his Brazilian, Indian and Argentine counterparts were willing to meet with him.

“I don’t think there’s a formal realignment, but I think the efforts to keep a lot of countries uncommitted are proving quite successful,” says Robert Gates, former U.S. secretary of defense and director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The field is open for maneuvering partly because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability.

For their part, the Biden administration and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have focused more on how well Western unity has held up in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Certainly that effort has been a significant success. NATO has been revitalized, while the European Union seems newly relevant and has invited Ukraine to join. Western resolve to punish Moscow economically and to help Ukraine militarily has been broad and robust. Similarly, U.S. efforts to draw in Japan, South Korea and Australia to counter both Russia and China have borne fruit.

Yet China and Russia are calculating that this focus on Western cohesion represents old, Cold War-era thinking that simply isn’t as relevant as it used to be. That bet includes some wishful thinking, but it also reflects new realities.

In part, the field is open for Russian and Chinese maneuvering because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability. To some extent, the U.S. neglected swaths of the globe as it focused its energies and its budgets on the war on terror for the last two decades and, more recently, on the Trump administration’s trade battles with China.

 

USSR was instrumental to ending the European colonialism, so Russia still gets amazing street cred in Africa for old times sake. South America is into Commies in general. You are very confused, Ron. USA is universally loathed in the "developing" world. It is Russia and China who enjoy a tremendous advantage there.

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On 7/20/2022 at 6:26 AM, Ron Wagner said:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-and-xis-bet-on-the-global-south-11657897521?page=1

IMHO South America and Central America have a long and good (though not perfect) history with America and Europe. The same would be true, to a lesser extent, with Africa. I do not see China or Russia having the same advantage. I do think we need to put a lot more emphasis on our trade relationships with both areas.  What do you think? RCW

 

im-584455im-584455?width=10&height=5

JEFFREY SMITH

SHARE
  • FACEBOOK
  • TWITTER
  • LINKEDIN
  • COPY FREE LINK
  • EMAIL
By Gerald F. Seib
Follow
 
July 15, 2022 11:05 am ET
 
SAVE
 
PRINT
TEXT
177
Listen to article
Length(14 minutes)
Queue

In a recent appearance before a Kremlin-friendly financial conference, Russian leader Vladimir Putin was typically direct and self-assured. Not only is his economy surviving Western sanctions, he declared, but the U.S. and its allies are missing a significant shift in the international alignment revealed by the world’s reaction to his invasion of Ukraine.

“They do not seem to notice that new powerful centers have formed on the planet,” the Russian leader said. “We are talking about revolutionary changes in the entire system of international relations. These changes are fundamental and pivotal.”

In many ways, that proclamation captures a giant global bet at the heart of Mr. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. He’s well aware that he’s lost a lot of ground, probably permanently, in traditional East-West relations because of the brutal Ukraine invasion. But he is gambling that he can make up for that by building a new diplomatic, economic and security network along a North-South axis.

His key ally in this enterprise is, of course, China, which has been working along this same North-South axis for years, showering trade and investment on Asia, Latin America and Africa, often in nations long seen as diplomatic backwaters. These nations aren’t big economic or diplomatic players, but many of them are rapidly growing markets positioned on strategic trade routes, and a number possess the critical minerals needed in the transformation to clean-energy technologies.

?width=700&height=467

China’s Xi Jinping and Mr. Putin (center) meet with their BRICS allies in Brasilia, November 2019. From left, leaders Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, Narenda Modi of India and Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil.PHOTO: KYODO NEWS VIA GETTY IMAGES

Taken together, these efforts amount to an attempt by Russia and China to rewire global power flows in ways that will work to their advantage—and to the West’s disadvantage—for years to come. Success in this effort is far from assured, but it could represent one of the most significant long-term results of the Ukraine crisis.


NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP

Grapevine

A weekly look at our most colorful, thought-provoking and original feature stories on the business of life.

PREVIEW
 
SUBSCRIBED

Mr. Putin has some reason to feel good about his plan so far. On the economic front, he is making significant oil sales to India and exploring potential natural-gas sales to Pakistan to start making up for lost Western markets. On the diplomatic front, 35 countries—representing almost 50% of the world population—abstained or voted no on a March United Nations resolution condemning the Ukraine invasion, while 58 nations, including Mexico, Egypt, Singapore, Indonesia and Qatar, abstained from a later vote to expel Russia from the UN’s Human Rights Council.

On the 100th day of Russia’s war in Ukraine, Mr. Putin received a visit from Macky Sall, president of Senegal and current head of the African Union, who pleaded for more Russian grain and fertilizer. More recently, Mr. Putin received a warm reception from the presidents of China, India, Brazil and South Africa at a virtual summit meeting of the so-called Bric countries. That group, which includes four of the world’s 10 most populous nations, pointedly avoided any condemnation of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Just last week, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was shunned by Western nations at a meeting of top diplomats from the Group of 20 industrialized nations but found that his Brazilian, Indian and Argentine counterparts were willing to meet with him.

“I don’t think there’s a formal realignment, but I think the efforts to keep a lot of countries uncommitted are proving quite successful,” says Robert Gates, former U.S. secretary of defense and director of the Central Intelligence Agency.

The field is open for maneuvering partly because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability.

For their part, the Biden administration and its North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies have focused more on how well Western unity has held up in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Certainly that effort has been a significant success. NATO has been revitalized, while the European Union seems newly relevant and has invited Ukraine to join. Western resolve to punish Moscow economically and to help Ukraine militarily has been broad and robust. Similarly, U.S. efforts to draw in Japan, South Korea and Australia to counter both Russia and China have borne fruit.

Yet China and Russia are calculating that this focus on Western cohesion represents old, Cold War-era thinking that simply isn’t as relevant as it used to be. That bet includes some wishful thinking, but it also reflects new realities.

In part, the field is open for Russian and Chinese maneuvering because of a combination of recent American indifference and a perception of unreliability. To some extent, the U.S. neglected swaths of the globe as it focused its energies and its budgets on the war on terror for the last two decades and, more recently, on the Trump administration’s trade battles with China.

 

Xiaomi Bolivia uses a Commie animal for a mascot.

https://twitter.com/ovargas52/status/1462794677028016135

https://www.facebook.com/xiaomimisantacruzbolivia/photos/-con-cuál-xiaomi-acaban-el-año-people-/761423240892549/

Probably abusing the honest injun reputation the Soviet export business had?

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On 7/20/2022 at 7:27 AM, Ron Wagner said:

Don't think The Epoch Times got any credibility on China.

Can you? In case you didn't notice, it is your economy which is really cratering, not the Chinese.

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