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Actually Oil price should go down because Russian Oil comes UAE and France will buy it so Russian Oil comes to market so oil price should go down https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russian-fuel-oil-exports-uaes-fujairah-set-spike-may-2022-05-13/ 

Russian fuel oil exports to UAE's Fujairah set to spike in May. this is still taking place. so oil should go down 

 
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Well you are right. From today russian Kommersant

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5480516?from=top_main_9

Quote

 

How much is a Russian barrel now The price of Urals rose in July, it is unknown how

According to Kommersant, the price of Urals oil in July could be much higher than previously thought. According to Argus, as of July 20, Urals' discount to Brent more than halved to $15 per barrel. Back in April, it exceeded $30 per barrel and has not been revised since then, since data on real transactions with Urals were not available. Other price agencies Platts and Reuters still estimate the discount in a fundamentally different way: at $30-40 per barrel. The closeness of the Urals market as a result of sanctions even more sharply raises the question of the representativeness of quotations, which are also used to calculate taxes.

The main grade of Russian oil Urals has risen sharply - the discount to the North Sea dated (Argus North Sea Dated) on July 20 fell to $15 per barrel from the previous $31-35 per barrel, follows from the data of the international agency Argus dated July 21 (a copy is available from Kommersant). ). Argus North Sea Dated is a benchmark for light North Sea oil, it includes the cost of Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll grades.

Since the imposition of sanctions, Urals has been trading at a significant discount to Brent.

This was due to the fact that many European buyers refused Russian oil for reputational reasons, and others because of the difficulties caused by sanctions in settlements, ship insurance and increased freight rates. In April, the world's largest traders Trafigura and Vitol refused to buy oil from Rosneft and Gazprom Neft, which fell under blocking EU sanctions.

The cost of physical shipments of oil is usually determined by quotations from price agencies, of which the most authoritative are Platts, Argus and Reuters. They publish quotes on the appropriate bases (shipping points) based on open data, tender results, as well as closed surveys of participants in transactions (employees of the trading divisions of oil companies and independent traders). Although the representativeness of the quotes formed in this way has repeatedly raised questions from regulators (for example, the European Commission conducted an investigation in 2013-2015), this system has been operating for decades and is recognized by the market.

However, deals with Urals have become almost completely closed as a result of sanctions - tenders are no longer held, the spot market for this grade has disappeared, European traders are not involved in operations, and Russian companies hardly talk about the terms of selling their oil to Asia.

As a result, Urals quotes are formed on the basis of the latest known data on the size of the discount to Brent and change in accordance with the dynamics of Brent.

In the case of Argus, this latest data is from April 4, when the discount was fixed at $34.85/bbl for Rotterdam CIF basis and $31.9/bbl for Augusta CIF. “But more recently, demand for Urals has picked up in Europe as well, which likely helped boost Russian oil prices, and traders have started to share information again,” Argus said in a July 21 report. Argus declined to comment.

Oil refining in July may recover to last year's levels

According to Kommersant's data, on July 25 Reuters estimated the differential between Urals and Brent at $32.5 per barrel. As of July 21, Platts estimated the Urals discount to Brent on the European market at $40.76 per barrel.

Quotations from Argus are especially important, since they are used by the Ministry of Finance to calculate key taxes - MET, AIT, export duty. Information on the average price of Urals oil is published by the Ministry of Economy: for example, in June it was $90.2 per barrel. Russian oil companies complained in March that Argus quotes do not reflect the real discounts Urals is being sold at, and companies are overpaying taxes. The government discussed the transition to domestic indicators, but the Ministry of Finance has not yet supported this. At the same time, the head of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, Elvira Nabiullina, said on July 22 that the regulator, together with the government, is working on an oil price index.

 

 

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That's wishful thinking. The Oil price will not go down significant. It may increased from Nov - till next March. As electricity is short. In Europe at least 20 Nuclear Power stations in France are down for maintenance.

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Im the only one to remember that according to IEA russian oil production for last couple of months should about 8 milion barrels per day

IMHO irony is that maybe Russia should now produced not 10,6-10,7 but yes 8 for now. You know just in September and October. Lets say before 7th November. Why not if Biden really want to lower russian oil production

Like with NG for Europe- cut not in 3 years time but this winter.

West weaponized $ and trade so Russia energy.

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(edited)

By the way Fatih Birol said today Russia is loosing gas war in Europe. Its his next bet after 8 milions barrels in June? Or the one that oil demand growth has no future in 20s after covid. Putin might be actually more worried if he said the opposite today.

Edited by Tomasz

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(edited)

You can keep my bet there will be no European Union oil embargo in current form- it will be weakened or extented in time. Not this Winter for sure if you dont a revolution in Europe.

Putin IMHO might always use an argument - if you ban my oil I will stop all NG Flow to Europe in middle of winter. Its still about 120 milion every Day or can be none. 

Edited by Tomasz

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On 8/26/2022 at 3:05 PM, Starschy said:

That's wishful thinking. The Oil price will not go down significant. It may increased from Nov - till next March. As electricity is short. In Europe at least 20 Nuclear Power stations in France are down for maintenance.

Why would electricity prices in Europe effect oil. There is zero replacement. No One and I mean no one can replace electricity with oil in the EU.

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What will be interesting is OPEC reduce their production limits. It is basically saying the world is over supplied "In their view"!

It is difficult to understand why you would pay a geopolitical premium if your closest producer thinks there is no shortage of oil. Probably not good for US oil exporters whatever way you look at it!

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(edited)

No way OPEC+ is reducing 2 Mio. Barrel per day - meaning no price reduction and optimisation of Margin. Till at least next March 2023.

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7021.htm

This is a complete disaster for the US Government. Opec is following the way of Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Another 10 Mio. Barrel from the US Reserve will not help till End of March 2023.

 

 

Edited by Starschy

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