WTI @ 67.50, charts show $62.50 next

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

dow now at 25,602, still strong chance for it to go down. I would only be worried if 25680 is taken out, since it could then shoot up 200 points. From looking at the dow, this is a beast, almost more volatile than oil.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So sometimes the key is to see if you can find a correlation between an instrument and another makes your life easier. So for now my correlation to oil is the dollar index. As i mentioned it was going down, and now I see it going back up. Which would mean oil goes  back down, after it makes an upward adjustment first maybe to 65 area. From here im looking for the magic 62.50. And then if we break that, oh boy, its the Sputnik 1 era, sorry its the fifties. Sputnik 1, a russian contraption was sent to space in the 50s, though Im not a  witness, this is what i was told. I will try and look at the dow closer to the open of the stock market. But it should go up first by about 70 points and then I see it heading down and trying to break 25,000. You know they say the higher the go the lower they fall, right? So it has to go up first to pull the rubber band all the way back and then woosh.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Speaking about oit if it can close below 65, would be good for the shorts.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

oil right now 2.30 pm est is at 65.20,  sometimes in next couple of days we may see 61.20 hit.

Edited August 16, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[marcin lehmann + 1]

22 hours ago, William Edwards said:

Alternatively, you might consider the drop to be simply the beginning of the speculative longs "giving up while the price is high". They become sellers with fewer buyers.

You are right. I'd exactly say thats if I see the oil price of 40$.

However, todays I just see current fluctuations as rebalancing the Market after recent histerical growth ... and before other specul.theories to change the trend. The oil is not like e.g. Bitcoin which behaves like a bubble pumped up by speculations with sudden "giving up" saying "no more, lets sell. We all understood it has no value" 

Here, all the speculations try to have some, even dummy, theory behind: shortages, Libya war, Iran sanctions, Marsian invaders to guesstimate the impact and future level. And between thats theories Market tends to equal supply-demand price which is, in my opinion, 60 on Brent (55 on WTI). Today I'd round an guesstimation of one of the hedge find saying the oil price within next two years will hit 150$. It's as probable as price of 65$ within 2-year horizon. No model can figure that out

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

marcin did you say model? Oh boy. do you know how many models they throw in the garbage, do you know how many hedgefunds close down because they thought they had the greatest model out there. Look at the model they used to short tesla at 70 now after a $300 up move these guys got to pack their bags and find another jobs, of course models are useless, the ones that are not are the ones that work. 1 out of a 100. No computer can figure out the market, the hfs traders are all stepping in front of volume an easy trick to beat other big players all the time. Right If i know you want to buy a painting so i buy for 10k before you get there, and they u have to buy it from me for 12k if you still want it. Models just sounds big, and yes there are some that work, indeed, but how many where scrapped before this one made it. Reminds me of the big sea turtles how lays 1000 eggs on the sand, and  only 1 makes it alive to the sea.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Still looks like the dow could fall, but there is a serious effort to prevent the fall artificially. And some big selloff is about to happen, since the move up looks suspicious.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

I guess when something is being supported as well as the stock market dont be a hero, this is why when I look at the dow it doesn't look tradeable, it running outside the chart system. However the market did go down 650 points form my entry and then quickly made that back again, very unusual.

Now from now 26,030 we should fall 200 points to 26400, but then we will see, if they support it  like before, then the selloff is over, it they let it go it's natural course, then we could see much lower prices. And if this will be the case, then the only time to short this for the kill, is when these players will step out of the way. Otherwise the plays have to be quick in and out for a couple hundred every time, which is not for me. And maybe this is what i have been seeing in the market subconsciously and the reason why i never  bothered looking at it.

Certainly when trading against large players you need to respect them.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

But at 25,626 taking a short with 25,800 as a stop, is very enticing, risk wise. The risk reward could be 28 to 1.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

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Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

17 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

WTI is now at 65.45 should hover there a bit and eventually drop to  58.

A drop to 58 will be a doozy.  You think this i going to happen soon?  I do, but I sure as heck can't see an entry point.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

entry point was 69

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Like i said many times i am not a day trader i try to go for the kill

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Catching a 100 point move for me is like no big deal, I can do that blindfolded, but I rarely see a day trader catch more than a 20 point move, and this is when they are lucky. 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Now trading oil here for a quick move is easy. you basically want to short as close to 66 as possible with 67 as a stop. And then get out 62, or 61 or if you want to risk it 50s

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

Hmm.  Decisions.  Decisions.  I've got inverse x2 & x3 positions on 3 indexes and the FAANGs, all of them around the current numbers in hopes of the indexes going down significantly, anytime within the next 2-6 months.  The problem I have is that I also think the oil price is going to go down significantly within the same general time frame, and all my play cash is on those index trades.  6 of one, 1/2 dozen of the other?  Who knows?  Maybe I should come back to the indexes later and go for the oil now......I'll have to think about this.

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

8 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Now trading oil here for a quick move is easy. you basically want to short as close to 66 as possible with 67 as a stop. And then get out 62, or 61 or if you want to risk it 50s

My adviser believes the indexes will take their successive dives within the next 2-4 months, so I could go back into those later.  The kind of timing and risk/reward on the oil trade is pretty solid now too.  Tough one for me to decide.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

So sometimes the key is to see if you can find a correlation between an instrument and another makes your life easier. So for now my correlation to oil is the dollar index. As i mentioned it was going down, and now I see it going back up. Which would mean oil goes  back down, after it makes an upward adjustment first maybe to 65 area. From here im looking for the magic 62.50. And then if we break that, oh boy, its the Sputnik 1 era, sorry its the fifties. Sputnik 1, a russian contraption was sent to space in the 50s, though Im not a  witness, this is what i was told. I will try and look at the dow closer to the open of the stock market. But it should go up first by about 70 points and then I see it heading down and trying to break 25,000. You know they say the higher the go the lower they fall, right? So it has to go up first to pull the rubber band all the way back and then woosh.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

repeat

Edited August 17, 2018 by Top Oil Trader

[Dan Warnick + 6,100]

7 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Dan everyone faces the same uncertainties, well.. My short on the dow is now well, it will be up about 400 points at least

Can't have everything, can we? Heh-heh.  6 of one, 1/2 dozen of the other.  I'm good with my current positions.  Just antsy...