WTI now at $70+ headed for $50s

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

gold now at 1195, basically headed down for 1133 to 1174 range for now, most likely lower range will be hit.

[dudeabides + 3]

I've been on the sidelines for several months now as an observer, figured I'd come in now and pay you guys a visit.

Greetings,

Steve Paz (dudeabides)

[dudeabides + 3]

JJ wrote: <<<At this point even if oil goes to $200, many people don't care, since they have solar panels, electric vehicles, wood burning stoves etc. This fact alone has brought down the demand for now and for the future>>>

JJ, whatever you're smoking...I'll pass.

[Claude + 7]

1 hour ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Oil shot up, well i was wrong in it going to 66.  for now going now for 70s. guess something happened.

It's mostly Hurricane Florence on the Atlantic. When the storm finally goes away, prices tend to fall back again. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/oil-markets-us-sanctions-on-iran-global-oil-supply-in-focus.html

[ATK + 355]

2 hours ago, Top Oil Trader said:

ATK how you doing? Great. Ok if we look at wti about 67.5. Be ready for a big move down soon, maybe today. I watch the charts to much some time i feel my brain (whats left of it is about ready to explode. Why do i say wti will soon fall again? Charts.

I'm doing great today, my calls are up %230

 Genscape who I trust more than any other analyst group (even more than API) was expecting a crude draw this week. Tropical storm gordon although not as strong as expected did have an impact on supply as well where analyst estimate about a decrease of 100k barrels a day 

Additionally, the spread between WTI crude and Brent was the highest it's been in awhile ($10 spread). Why is this important? Because it makes WTI crude much more appealing price wise as opposed to Brent, the effect being that Korea and Japan have significantly increased their imports from the US since the start of September. 200k of barrels a day to Korea and 100k to Japan is what's being estimated. India has also went on to say that it would not being ordering from Iran come October and will likely replace that oil (some) with WTI crude. 

Also, Canada is continuing NAFTA talks today and any kind of progress/deal being made would be good for crude prices. US met with EU as well over trade and could also benefit crude.

 Finally, OPEC is expected to increase their production by a million barrels a day, however, many analyst believe that OPEC dosent have the spare production capacity to keep up with demand in this tightened oil market.

So with all that being said, I had the opposite opinion of you this week and saw oil rising 

 

Oh on top of that the short term outlook report by EIA bumped WTI price range up by $10 to $85 a barrel by December 

FA FTW

Edit: your response is the reason I snap at you, "why do I say wti will fall? Because charts"

So sure of yourself yet you lack the understanding of fundementals that drive this market.

And by the way, you aren't right all of sudden because you changed your mind an hour or two ago

I'm sure you won't give any kind of response to this comment like you always do and move on to your next guess

Edited September 11, 2018 by ATK

[jonathan yoakum + 13]

48 minutes ago, Claude said:

It's mostly Hurricane Florence on the Atlantic. When the storm finally goes away, prices tend to fall back again. 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/11/oil-markets-us-sanctions-on-iran-global-oil-supply-in-focus.html

That's because CNBC is run by the super wealthy and fronted by morons with nice haircuts.

Hurricanes do not increase oil prices.

Today was simply a nice healthy move up after tanking since the last $70

It does not mean anything beyond this session 

[oilfutures + 39]

@ATK 

This guy FA's! Well done!

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

so todays move in oil gave me a very bullish signal for possibly a couple of days. It would be very hard for it to go down very soon. At least this is a warning to people recently short. However longer term we still should see WTI in the 50s.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

ATK good job with options. 

[oilfutures + 39]

Is ATK the new JJ, lol?

Already at about $70 on EIA.   Nice call ATK - where we headed next?

[Manfred Kruger + 40]

I wrote the following paragraph back in July on another oil price bearish discussion:

"WTI Crude is in a clear uptrend with higher highs and higher lows. Technically the objective is still $78 to 80/bbl. Backwardation, crack spreads and Brent premiums are also supportive. The fly in the ointment is the high level of spec bulls that may require a correction to shake out the weak longs. A close below $65 may signal a deeper correction. Fundamentally, depleting global inventories and turbulent geopolitics also point to further upside although the Saudis and Russians could temporarily limit the upside. Bottom line, in my opinion we go higher after a correction."

I still stand by those comments.

[Jesse Man + 17]

No one can guess oil prices right.

[catch22 + 244]

On 9/11/2018 at 2:33 AM, Top Oil Trader said:

Well down we go looks like 68.4 was the high. Very bearish signal here, now 65 is now possible.

wrong again - were now at 70... really JJ - these wild guesses dont help anyone...

From what i see - your simply reacting to the market rather than doing a proper analysis.

And as far as proper analysis goes - i really dont think anyone has any idea on what oil is doing at the moment - its simply up and down like a yoyo with the market sentiment and nothing else... its a loosers game for anyone dumb enough to gamble right now...the only winners will be those that win on pure luck like a roulette wheel - and of course they will say they knew it to be true based on their "analysis" and the loosers simply stay quiet like a drunken gambler stumbing home in the dark with his pockets empty never to speak a word of it again... stay away from oil trading until the market volatility settles down- thats my 2c...

Edited September 11, 2018 by catch22

[Tomasz + 1,608]

Read last EIA STEO  - its quite bullish in my opinion. Thats the reason for upward movement today.

[catch22 + 244]

Fundamentally i agree that fundamentals point upwards, however at any moment when donald trump chooses to open his mouth about china tarrifs (some are exepecting this tomorrow btw), anyone with a long position will be instantly crushed... Its just too risky at this point in time...

[ATK + 355]

34 minutes ago, Jesse Man said:

No one can guess oil prices right.

Exactly, I trade options and at most I go two weeks out, there are way to many short term factors, and honestly if these Iran sanctions weren't a thing it would be a much different story long term

[ATK + 355]

26 minutes ago, catch22 said:

Fundamentally i agree that fundamentals point upwards, however at any moment when donald trump chooses to open his mouth about china tarrifs (some are exepecting this tomorrow btw), anyone with a long position will be instantly crushed... Its just too risky at this point in time...

The things is China only imports 6% of its crude from the US so I think the trade war demand argument gets a little overblown

[jonathan yoakum + 13]

I dont get why any trader (true trader that pays the bills off trade profits) would ever marry a price point? Even arguing price ranges with other traders can be a hidden mental trap. When the books are open and capital is flowing all you need are key levels up/down and an extremely patient demeanor. The rest is nonsense, technical and fundamental alike.

 

Never ever marry a price. And always walk away from the market with a need to clear that thick head before coming back.

 

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

My target of 50s is the eventual target, i do mention many times it will be a bumpy road. And almost on a daily basis you could be short in the am and long in the pm if you are looking to capture $1 moves. And of course to do that you cant base your decisions on the eventual price of oil down the road. So Longer term target is 50s. Shorter term it depends how soon you can catch on, to how the price is moving. On the euro i watch all the time frames to make a decision and it does take time, in wti im simply looking at a 4 hr chart to gauge the probable direction, but if you look at a 30 min chart you could see that the 4hr is about to change. Maybe tomorrow I will try and spend lots of time on each wti time frame to see where we are headed for the day. I will consider this a challenge.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

NN, i am up almost 23 hours a day looking at eur charts, its with my last energy that i take a fast look at WTI. I will try starting tommorrow before us open to spend a lot of time on each time frame and make better forecasts. NN you are on.

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Ok took time of to look at WTI, took about 60 min to get all the files and parameters i use, and adjust it for WTI. Indeed the price  crossed 70. So what it is showing me was that this up move to 70 is a desperate last attempt to try and put some  life in   WTI or crude, before it drops. iwould say it should fall tomorrow, and hit 66 sometime this week.

This is based on very detailed analysis much more time was spent this time.

I will visit this chart again before us open.

 

[Chinedu 0]

what is actually making the oil price going up

[Top Oil Trader + 469]

Basically we have two forces that cause prices to go down or up. Basically OPEC want to keep prices up, but not high enough to choke consumers, they do that by limiting supply. However for a long while now their is a rush for consumers not to be dependent on oil, by using ev and solar power, the consumers would be happy if a barrel of oil drops to $1. There are so many countries producing oil now like the US and Canada and Russia, Shale production etc, all causing pressure to the prices of oil. Eventually we will have so much supply oil will be very cheap. Lets remember they discovered about 30 Trill barrels of oil in the artic. But since Opec produces the bulk of oil, everytime supply increases from non-opec countries, opec simply reduces supply and prices stabilize. War and sanctions cause prices to fluctuate. This is kind of the gist of it.

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

20 minutes ago, Top Oil Trader said:

Basically we have two forces that cause prices to go down or up. Basically OPEC want to keep prices up, but not high enough to choke consumers, they do that by limiting supply. However for a long while now their is a rush for consumers not to be dependent on oil, by using ev and solar power, the consumers would be happy if a barrel of oil drops to $1. There are so many countries producing oil now like the US and Canada and Russia, Shale production etc, all causing pressure to the prices of oil. Eventually we will have so much supply oil will be very cheap. Lets remember they discovered about 30 Trill barrels of oil in the artic. But since Opec produces the bulk of oil, everytime supply increases from non-opec countries, opec simply reduces supply and prices stabilize. War and sanctions cause prices to fluctuate. This is kind of the gist of it.

Not really.  That is more of a "trader's" way of obscuring that the price of oil on the spot market and the futures exchange is set by traders competing with each other and attempting to "best" each other, essentially a computer game of nerves where feints and bluffs go on, in what the traders view as a zero-sum game.  The components recited by JJ, above, will have a long-term effect, one that spells out over a time frame of several years - and is constantly being bumped off the equilibrium it seeks by new discoveries of oil deposits, new alliances of nations and political groups, the odd war here and there (including destruction of petroleum assets, as in Kuwait by Saddam, setting fire to a thousand wells), and changing population trends, home construction and residency trends, family formation, food production, and substitution technologies being developed and entering the stream of commerce. 

In the shorter time frame, anything less than about four years, the price of oil is determined by the last trader's trade.  That, in turn, is controlled by only two factors, both psychological:  greed, and fear.  And that is why oil is so volatile.  Greed and fear as this duopoly, tussling in a rink, each sweating the other, reflexively grabbing and letting go each others' genitalia in that great wrestling match called the Trader's Pit. 

[Jan van Eck + 7,558]

10 hours ago, Jesse Man said:

No one can guess oil prices right.

Not in the short term.  That is the territory of greed and fear, nothing more. 

Longer term, product substitution in the developed, Western world tends to be a damper, being offset by rising populations and demand in the undeveloped world.  What stops it from going crazy is that the undeveloped world has little if any money to pay for the stuff.  For example, by no means exhaustive, I point out that over 500 million people in India do the Squat and poop outdoors, in fields, along the railroad tracks,  alongside rural roads, everywhere.  They don't even dig a pit in the ground and put a plank over it  (a latrine).  You have this country where some 65% of the (rural)  population is literally pooping just about anywhere, out in the open. 

Now, think about the implications of that for a moment.  Where you have this society that cannot afford the construction of a latrine pit, to say nothing of indoor flush toilets - are these future consumers of large quantities of refined oil products?  Gasoline?  Kerosine? Industrial lubricants?  Jet fuel?  They are off behind some bush doing their poop.  These are not customers for autos and gasoline. They are not even customers for privacy, dignity, or rail tickets.  500 million of them.