E-car Sales Collapse

[markslawson + 1,061]

The story below, which appeared in Clean Energy Wire, February 6, is typical of EV sales in general. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, buyers lose interest. However, it should be noted that the subsidies are still enough to boost battery electric vehicles as opposed to plug-in hybrids.

NEWS
 
06 Feb 2023, 13:20 Benjamin Wehrmann
E-car sales plummet in Germany following subsidy cut

Registrations of new electric vehicles collapsed in Germany following cuts in buyers’ premiums at the beginning of the year. Registrations for battery electric vehicles dropped about 83 percent to 18,100 in January from 104,300 in December, when many people rushed to receive the full subsidy, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA). The share of e-cars fell to 15 percent in January from more than 55 percent in December, while total car registrations dropped three percent, car industry association VDA said.

The government decided in mid-2022 to reduce support payments for new e-cars, arguing they had become increasingly attractive for buyers even without support payments. Last year, e-car buyers received up 6,000 euros from the state when buying a new vehicle, plus up to 3,000 euros from the car manufacturers themselves. At the start of this year, support for battery electric or fuel cell cars dropped to 3,000-4,500 euros.

The lower support rates are likely to dampen e-car sales throughout the year, VDA said. In total, it expects sales of about 510,000 battery electric vehicles in 2023, eight percent more than last year; and sales of about 250,000 plug-in hybrid cars, a drop of 30 percent compared to 2022. On balance, total EV sales will fall by eight percent this year, the lobby group estimated. Given the lower support payments, “it’s important to strengthen people’s trust in e-mobility in different ways” to keep e-car sales up, VDA head Hildegard Müller said. Customers still can’t rely on easy charging options anytime and everywhere, Müller argued, which should be remedied quickly to ensure EVs are attractive to buyers even without a premium.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

1 hour ago, markslawson said:

The story below, which appeared in Clean Energy Wire, February 6, is typical of EV sales in general. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, buyers lose interest. However, it should be noted that the subsidies are still enough to boost battery electric vehicles as opposed to plug-in hybrids.

NEWS
 
06 Feb 2023, 13:20 Benjamin Wehrmann
E-car sales plummet in Germany following subsidy cut

Registrations of new electric vehicles collapsed in Germany following cuts in buyers’ premiums at the beginning of the year. Registrations for battery electric vehicles dropped about 83 percent to 18,100 in January from 104,300 in December, when many people rushed to receive the full subsidy, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA). The share of e-cars fell to 15 percent in January from more than 55 percent in December, while total car registrations dropped three percent, car industry association VDA said.

The government decided in mid-2022 to reduce support payments for new e-cars, arguing they had become increasingly attractive for buyers even without support payments. Last year, e-car buyers received up 6,000 euros from the state when buying a new vehicle, plus up to 3,000 euros from the car manufacturers themselves. At the start of this year, support for battery electric or fuel cell cars dropped to 3,000-4,500 euros.

The lower support rates are likely to dampen e-car sales throughout the year, VDA said. In total, it expects sales of about 510,000 battery electric vehicles in 2023, eight percent more than last year; and sales of about 250,000 plug-in hybrid cars, a drop of 30 percent compared to 2022. On balance, total EV sales will fall by eight percent this year, the lobby group estimated. Given the lower support payments, “it’s important to strengthen people’s trust in e-mobility in different ways” to keep e-car sales up, VDA head Hildegard Müller said. Customers still can’t rely on easy charging options anytime and everywhere, Müller argued, which should be remedied quickly to ensure EVs are attractive to buyers even without a premium.

And then the sales climb back up to the same level and they cut more subsidies. It is almost as if they have a market plan that is working, hmmm...

Edited February 8, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[RichieRich216 + 454]

Is anyone on this site surprised !😂

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 hours ago, markslawson said:

The story below, which appeared in Clean Energy Wire, February 6, is typical of EV sales in general. Once the subsidies are withdrawn, buyers lose interest. However, it should be noted that the subsidies are still enough to boost battery electric vehicles as opposed to plug-in hybrids.

NEWS
 
06 Feb 2023, 13:20 Benjamin Wehrmann
E-car sales plummet in Germany following subsidy cut

Registrations of new electric vehicles collapsed in Germany following cuts in buyers’ premiums at the beginning of the year. Registrations for battery electric vehicles dropped about 83 percent to 18,100 in January from 104,300 in December, when many people rushed to receive the full subsidy, according to the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA). The share of e-cars fell to 15 percent in January from more than 55 percent in December, while total car registrations dropped three percent, car industry association VDA said.

The government decided in mid-2022 to reduce support payments for new e-cars, arguing they had become increasingly attractive for buyers even without support payments. Last year, e-car buyers received up 6,000 euros from the state when buying a new vehicle, plus up to 3,000 euros from the car manufacturers themselves. At the start of this year, support for battery electric or fuel cell cars dropped to 3,000-4,500 euros.

The lower support rates are likely to dampen e-car sales throughout the year, VDA said. In total, it expects sales of about 510,000 battery electric vehicles in 2023, eight percent more than last year; and sales of about 250,000 plug-in hybrid cars, a drop of 30 percent compared to 2022. On balance, total EV sales will fall by eight percent this year, the lobby group estimated. Given the lower support payments, “it’s important to strengthen people’s trust in e-mobility in different ways” to keep e-car sales up, VDA head Hildegard Müller said. Customers still can’t rely on easy charging options anytime and everywhere, Müller argued, which should be remedied quickly to ensure EVs are attractive to buyers even without a premium.

Sorry but the only thing dampening down EV/hybrid sales in Europe is lack of supply and having to wait over 12 months for a vehicle.

[markslawson + 1,061]

22 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

And then the sales climb back up to the same level and they cut more subsidies. It is almost as if they have a market plan that is working, hmmm...

Jay - never known it to work like that, but if you have some material supporting this I'be be interested. 

[markslawson + 1,061]

14 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Sorry but the only thing dampening down EV/hybrid sales in Europe is lack of supply and having to wait over 12 months for a vehicle.

That's not what the evidence shows but if you have some material supporting your statement I'd be most interested. Certainly there may be enthusiasts creating bottlenecks but there is no natural demand for EVs among consumers, as they has no edge over modern petrol-driven cars and some disadvantages (range). Hybrids are somewhat different but still don't have any market edge.   

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

1 hour ago, markslawson said:

Jay - never known it to work like that, but if you have some material supporting this I'be be interested. 

So your claim then is that German and China PEV sales have peaked since subsidies have peaked. (China also cut a large amount of EV subsidies on Jan. 1st)

This will be fun. Here is your evidence:

Jun 14, 2022 - 12:11 pm

UK government stops subsidising new electric cars

The British government is ending its subsidy programme for electric cars with immediate effect. The sudden move only affects newly purchased electric cars. Subsidies for electric vans, electric taxis and electric motorbikes are to continue. 

All existing applications for the grant will still be considered, as will grants not yet applied for electric cars bought in the two working days before the announcement (14.6.), according to the UK government. For newly purchased electric cars, however, the government subsidy programme ends with immediate effect.

The government has already scaled down the programme several times. Most recently, only electric cars up to a price of 32,000 pounds were subsidised with 1,500 pounds. The plug-in car grant was thus only available for a few vehicles on the market anyway. The repeated reduction to the equivalent of about 1,750 euros had already caused speculation about an imminent end.

The government justifies the step by saying that the successive cuts in the subsidy and the number of eligible models had had “hardly any impact on the rapidly increasing sales and the steadily growing model range”. In other words, customers did not necessarily make their purchase decision dependent on the subsidy, but simply took the (reduced) subsidy with them.

Therefore, the government wants to refocus the subsidy – “on the main barriers to the transition to electric vehicles, including public charging and support for the purchase of other road vehicles where the transition to electric vehicles needs to be further developed”. While the electric car incentive scheme is now ending, the UK government is pledging £300 million in funding for the purchase of electric vans, electric taxis and electric motorbikes. However, the announcement does not announce an increase in subsidies to expand the charging infrastructure.

Although the government is cancelling the purchase premium for new electric cars, other subsidies will continue. For example, electric vehicles continue to be exempt from vehicle tax and can benefit from reduced tax rates for company cars, as in Germany.

 

Meanwhile 6 months later: The UK’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles take 39.4% share of new sales in December, a new record, up from 33.2% year on year. Full electrics alone took almost a third of the market. 

Electric car sales are booming in the UK. In 2022, new EV registrations were 40% higher than the year before with 267,203 new electric cars being sold.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Jay McKinsey

[Ron Wagner + 714]

3 hours ago, markslawson said:

That's not what the evidence shows but if you have some material supporting your statement I'd be most interested. Certainly there may be enthusiasts creating bottlenecks but there is no natural demand for EVs among consumers, as they has no edge over modern petrol-driven cars and some disadvantages (range). Hybrids are somewhat different but still don't have any market edge.   

IMHO hybrid vehicles have a natural market edge because of several factors:

1. Lower price.

2. Around town driving and charging at home meets most needs. 

3. No worries about having to replace a large battery pack. 

4. No long range driving problems.

5. No cold weather charging problems.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

2 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

IMHO hybrid vehicles have a natural market edge because of several factors:

1. Lower price.

2. Around town driving and charging at home meets most needs. 

3. No worries about having to replace a large battery pack. 

4. No long range driving problems.

5. No cold weather charging problems.

Yet BEV outsell PHEV 3 or 4 to 1 in every market. It is almost as if your analysis is wrong. BEV even outsells HEV here in the US:

HEV Sales

In December 2022, 72,264 HEVs (21,560 cars and 50,704 LTs) were sold in the United States, up 3.3% from the sales in December 2021.

Toyota accounted for a 53.7% share of total HEV sales in this month.

Plug-In Vehicle Sales

A total of 98,656 plug-in vehicles (79,058 BEVs and 19,598 PHEVs) were sold during December 2022 in the United States, up 49.5% from the sales in December 2021. PEVs captured 7.81% of total LDV sales this month.

 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 hours ago, markslawson said:

That's not what the evidence shows but if you have some material supporting your statement I'd be most interested. Certainly there may be enthusiasts creating bottlenecks but there is no natural demand for EVs among consumers, as they has no edge over modern petrol-driven cars and some disadvantages (range). Hybrids are somewhat different but still don't have any market edge.   

Its to do with battery manufacture and lack of lithium amongst other elements that make up said battery.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/

I also have my own real world experience with over a dozen of my colleagues waiting well over 12 months for an EV when they would have taken them tomorrow, In fact 1 is still waiting and placed his order 17 months ago with no date in sight of when that delivery will happen. 

My lease car PHEV is up in November and Ive been told I need to order now and I'll still be waiting well into 2024 for delivery. So yes I have eyes and ears and have first hand experience of this. If I want the same model car in ICE I can have it in under 1 month.

You say "there is no natural demand for EVs among consumers, as they has no edge over modern petrol-driven cars and some disadvantages (range)"

What are you missing when you see sales going through the roof for these causing massive supply issues? of course there's massive demand and yes they do have an edge over ICE, theyre cheaper to run, they are'nt pollutive, they are cheaper to service, they have less moving parts that can go wrong, you can de-ice your car from your living room etc etc. Also if youre a greenie theyll give you a warm glow in your groin lol.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

9 hours ago, markslawson said:

That's not what the evidence shows

You say this and then dont offer any evidence yourself for your statement!

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

California BEV sales finished the year at 17% market share, crushing HEV and PHEV sales:

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

9 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You say this and then dont offer any evidence yourself for your statement!

That's because as we all know he has no evidence and just makes things up.

[markslawson + 1,061]

23 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

The UK’s auto market saw plugin electric vehicles take 39.4% share of new sales in December, a new record, up from 33.2% year on year. Full electrics alone took almost a third of the market. 

Electric car sales are booming in the UK. In 2022, new EV registrations were 40% higher than the year before with 267,203 new electric cars being sold.

Again I must burst your bubble. Sure they ended some subsidies but EVs have massive government mandated advantages.. in the UK. Look at the table in the article I linked near the end. EVs are exempt from London's congestion tax - oh wow! no wonder sales are booming, that alone would be enough to guarantee sales. The other concessions are really juicy too. Subsidsies aren't needed. Its no surprise they were ended. And you can fully write off the price of an EV on corporate tax.. they'll be knocking down the gates of the EV show rooms. Sorry Jay, but your counter example is no example at all but thanks for the response. I learn a lot from these things.   

[markslawson + 1,061]

14 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Its to do with battery manufacture and lack of lithium amongst other elements that make up said battery.

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2022/07/electric-vehicles-world-enough-lithium-resources/

I also have my own real world experience with over a dozen of my colleagues waiting well over 12 months for an EV when they would have taken them tomorrow, In fact 1 is still waiting and placed his order 17 months ago with no date in sight of when that delivery will happen. 

Rob - I'm well aware of the problems with sourcing battery components. But you're basing your comments on anecdotal evidence. Where are you and where do you work that it takes so long to deliver EVs? Again, and we keep on going over this same ground, its time to absorb the point, sure there have been increases in demand. Everyone's been talking about these things, and there are subsidies/advantages, particularly in Europe, in buying these things. Enthusiasts have kidded themselves into believing it helps the environment. But the sales still count as just a portion of the petrol car market. No, EVs have no natural advantage. They have the range and recharge issues, and once you take into account resales value and battery replacement the supposed cost advantage vanishes.     

[markslawson + 1,061]

5 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

That's because as we all know he has no evidence and just makes things up.

Jay - that is entirely unjustified, uncalled for and decidedly unparliamentary. You should be ashamed of yourself. I won't respond to any more of your comments.

[markslawson + 1,061]

14 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

You say this and then dont offer any evidence yourself for your statement!

Okay, lets look at this story. (Australian Broadcasting Corporation). Its a couple of years old, but nothing much as changed.

When Julie Hoang needed to upgrade the family's ageing diesel car, she didn't at first consider buying an electric vehicle (EV).

Then she saw the subsidies, and pretty soon she was swanning around in a sleek white electric Peugeot.

"I definitely wouldn't have bought one without the subsidies," she says.

The four-door hatchback would have cost an eye-watering $50,000, but the government gave her an $11,000 rebate.

On top of this, it bought back her diesel clunker for about $5,000.

"That's a higher value than what it's worth," Julie said.

All up, the subsidy and buy-back reduced the cost of the car to $34,000; more expensive than a diesel model, but not by too much.

The catch? (And sorry to get your hopes up).

Julie lives in France.

 Governments around the world are offering juicy purchase incentives to speed car ownership to EVs — and it appears to be working.

EVs made up 22 per cent of new car sales in France in September 2021.

 

Demand for EVs is created by subsidies and incentives. Take those away and no sales.. a point shonw time and again. Now that is it. I've wasted enough time on this point. 

[markslawson + 1,061]

20 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

IMHO hybrid vehicles have a natural market edge because of several factors:

1. Lower price.

2. Around town driving and charging at home meets most needs. 

3. No worries about having to replace a large battery pack. 

4. No long range driving problems.

5. No cold weather charging problems.

Hybrids are in a different category.. I'm not sure that they have an edge but they certainly don't have the problems of EVs.. and if they're cheaper I can't see a problem.. 

[Ecocharger + 1,485]

On 2/7/2023 at 8:09 PM, Jay McKinsey said:

And then the sales climb back up to the same level and they cut more subsidies. It is almost as if they have a market plan that is working, hmmm...

A drop in sales is a market plan that is working....hmmm....your usual breathless command of logic in action again.

Edited February 10, 2023 by Ecocharger

[Ecocharger + 1,485]

1 hour ago, markslawson said:

Jay - that is entirely unjustified, uncalled for and decidedly unparliamentary. You should be ashamed of yourself. I won't respond to any more of your comments.

Jay is never ashamed of himself...there is a special term for that kind of bearing, "without shame" or "shameless".

[Ecocharger + 1,485]

7 hours ago, Jay McKinsey said:

California BEV sales finished the year at 17% market share, crushing HEV and PHEV sales:

Jay, you have forgotten the big picture again. That is only 17% of NEW market share, probably less than 5% of overall vehicle market share, and less than 1% of the transportation market share.

For someone with tunnel vision, you are even outdoing your usual performance.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

2 hours ago, markslawson said:

Again I must burst your bubble. Sure they ended some subsidies but EVs have massive government mandated advantages.. in the UK. Look at the table in the article I linked near the end. EVs are exempt from London's congestion tax - oh wow! no wonder sales are booming, that alone would be enough to guarantee sales. The other concessions are really juicy too. Subsidsies aren't needed. Its no surprise they were ended. And you can fully write off the price of an EV on corporate tax.. they'll be knocking down the gates of the EV show rooms. Sorry Jay, but your counter example is no example at all but thanks for the response. I learn a lot from these things.   

Mark, I said "And then the sales climb back up to the same level and they cut more subsidies"

You said "never known it to work like that"

I then provided you with direct evidence of the UK repeatedly reducing subsidies with demand again accelerating afterward.

You stand corrected.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

2 hours ago, markslawson said:

Jay - that is entirely unjustified, uncalled for and decidedly unparliamentary. You should be ashamed of yourself. I won't respond to any more of your comments.

Oh poor poor Mark, it must be so frustrating putting all that effort into spreading your misinformation only to be repeatedly exposed to the world as being full of BS. I accept your capitulation.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

1 hour ago, Ecocharger said:

A drop in sales is a market plan that is working....hmmm....your usual breathless command of logic in action again.

Yes and then the sales climb to even higher levels. It is very effective.

[Jay McKinsey + 1,491]

2 hours ago, Ecocharger said:

Jay, you have forgotten the big picture again. That is only 17% of NEW market share, probably less than 5% of overall vehicle market share, and less than 1% of the transportation market share.

For someone with tunnel vision, you are even outdoing your usual performance.

And the number just keeps going up.