E-car Sales Collapse

[notsonice + 1,255]

https://www.engineering.com/story/why-ev-manufacturers-are-switching-from-nmc-to-lfp-batteries

Why EV Manufacturers Are Switching from NMC to LFP Batteries

 

for the slow ones who post here.....enjoy the read

[Mr Smee + 13]

On 2/17/2023 at 9:37 AM, Rob Plant said:

EWO I have no idea what your post is getting at (maybe a lamp post). Local coucils are fitting the sockets for the charging.

Maybe your best colour is pink?

There is absolutely no reason why this cant be done and its actually happening in many parts of London right now.

Its not MY strategy by the way! I was just explaing to Mr.Smee (old Luddite that he must be) that there are ways and means of charging an EV safely if you live in a terraced house, the fact he hasnt replied makes me think I have made that point.

29% of houses in the UK are terraced (row houses), I would imagine that number in the US is miniscule.

Oh and call me Rob, no need to be so formal 😉

Just send me a picture of all these charging points along terraced housing in the UK.  I’m open to see this and will even travel to said street to see it with my own eyes. Unfortunately I don’t think I’ll see this, not in our life time anyway champ.

I do hope the UK goes full electric, but again we won’t see that.  

[turbguy + 1,543]

9 hours ago, Mr Smee said:

Just send me a picture of all these charging points along terraced housing in the UK.  I’m open to see this and will even travel to said street to see it with my own eyes. Unfortunately I don’t think I’ll see this, not in our life time anyway champ.

I do hope the UK goes full electric, but again we won’t see that.  

Going "fully electric" will be a major challenge for just about every region on the planet.  Aviation alone will interfere with that goal. 

Petroleum (and other fossil fuels) is gonna be with us for quite a while...

[Mr Smee + 13]

2 minutes ago, turbguy said:

Going "fully electric" will be a major challenge for just about every region on the planet.  Aviation alone will interfere with that goal. 

Petroleum (and other fossil fuels) is gonna be with us for quite a while...

Don’t let the led zeppelin guy hear you say that. 

[markslawson + 1,058]

On 2/18/2023 at 10:24 AM, notsonice said:

all the EV makers have switched to LFP batteries which do no use Cobalt.........

Try to stay current...

 

Stay in school Junior ......you might learn something

Well, no, its you who should check sources, and there is no need to be abusive. If they've abused you that is no excuse. Don't reply in kind. This from Wikipedia.

 As of September 2022, LFP type battery market share for EV's reached 31%, and of that, 68% was from Tesla and Chinese EV maker BYD production alone. Chinese manufacturers currently hold a near monopoly of LFP battery type production, however, with patents having started to expire in 2022 and the increased demand for cheaper EV batteries, LFP type production is expected to rise further to surpass NMC type batteries in 2028.

Considering the vast increase in demand for batteries that would be occur if any of the projections on EVs were true - fortunately they are not, but let us suppose they are, then we will still need a vast increase in cobalt-using batteries. All that said, however, I'm glad you pointed to these batteries. Most interesting. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

11 hours ago, markslawson said:

Well, no, its you who should check sources, and there is no need to be abusive. If they've abused you that is no excuse. Don't reply in kind. This from Wikipedia.

 As of September 2022, LFP type battery market share for EV's reached 31%, and of that, 68% was from Tesla and Chinese EV maker BYD production alone. Chinese manufacturers currently hold a near monopoly of LFP battery type production, however, with patents having started to expire in 2022 and the increased demand for cheaper EV batteries, LFP type production is expected to rise further to surpass NMC type batteries in 2028.

Considering the vast increase in demand for batteries that would be occur if any of the projections on EVs were true - fortunately they are not, but let us suppose they are, then we will still need a vast increase in cobalt-using batteries. All that said, however, I'm glad you pointed to these batteries. Most interesting. 

2023 the switch is on...enjoy the elimanation of the need for cobalt for EVs

[turbguy + 1,543]

8 hours ago, notsonice said:

2023 the switch is on...enjoy the elimanation of the need for cobalt for EVs

Some cobalt is required for fossil power plants, particularly Advanced Supercritical Coal plants and CT superalloys.

Nuc plants avoid the stuff at all costs due to radiation hazards created during operation.

Edited February 19, 2023 by turbguy

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 2/18/2023 at 1:06 PM, Mr Smee said:

Just send me a picture of all these charging points along terraced housing in the UK.  I’m open to see this and will even travel to said street to see it with my own eyes. Unfortunately I don’t think I’ll see this, not in our life time anyway champ.

I do hope the UK goes full electric, but again we won’t see that.  

Heres one in Reading

Heres one in Chelsea

And another

And another

I could go on Mr Smee but youre too lazy to do any research, please note that all these are different types of charging as numerous different companies are competing to supply these along numerous streets.

Enjoy your travels in and around the London area, looks like youre gonna do a lot of travelling to visit these!

By the way I'm not some greenie geek and dont and wont own an EV as I think the range sucks at present! However to deny that this is happening is burying your head in the sand.

Oh and I'm not THAT Rob Plant unfortunately, but I do get the odd explicit fan letter from time to time from US housewives who want to do unspeakable sexual acts to me👍

Edited February 20, 2023 by Rob Plant

[markslawson + 1,058]

16 hours ago, turbguy said:

Some cobalt is required for fossil power plants, particularly Advanced Supercritical Coal plants and CT superalloys.

Oh sure - Cobalt has a lot of niche uses. the trouble was, and still is, that production has to be ramped up by orders of magnitude for EVs. Now it may not be so bad with another poster pointing out that manufacturers are starting to use batteries that do not have cobalt, and EV sales likely to fall well short of forecasts, but the expected production increase is still matter of concern.   

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

3 hours ago, markslawson said:

Now it may not be so bad with another poster pointing out that manufacturers are starting to use batteries that do not have cobalt, and EV sales likely to fall well short of forecasts,

Electric Car Sales and Statistics for 2023

https://tridenstechnology.com/electric-car-sales-statistics/

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57253947

Why would EV sales fall short of forecasts when production is expected to increase?? This makes no sense.

You say that LFP batteries dont use cobalt (which apparently was the issue) "production can then ramp up" pretty much every car manufacturer is ditching ICE and going EV from 2030 if not now and yet sales arent going to match forecasts? How does that work then?

If you are suggesting people in the first world wont need to buy a vehicle in 5-7 years time due to driverless taxis etc that will be very cheap then yeah you have a point, if not then I really dont get how you come to that conclusion.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 hours ago, markslawson said:

Oh sure - Cobalt has a lot of niche uses.

Actually, no.  Cobalt makes absolutely WONDERFUL steels, but Cobalt is so damned expensive because it is rare, no one can economically use it and therefore practically no one does.  Everyone WANTs to use said steels, but can't.  Though frankly its a bit difficult to beat  several of the other high chromium/vanadium steels, but I digress...  Different issues there of course as most of the Chromium in the world is in 2 countries and there is vastly more Cr than Co.  In fact we have more Chromium than Copper, but due to its high difficulty to smelt, very little Chromium is used. 

In fact, we quite a bit more Cobalt in the world than Lithium.  Ability to mine it/refine it on the other hand... is an entirely different story.

In either case, we have no battery that is viable for anything other than a few select people of the world.  Need a battery that does not use lithium, cobalt, nickel, or Chromium or any other semi rare element. 

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

34 minutes ago, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Actually, no.  Cobalt makes absolutely WONDERFUL steels, but Cobalt is so damned expensive because it is rare, no one can economically use it and therefore practically no one does.  Everyone WANTs to use said steels, but can't.  Though frankly its a bit difficult to beat  several of the other high chromium/vanadium steels, but I digress...  Different issues there of course as most of the Chromium in the world is in 2 countries and there is vastly more Cr than Co.  In fact we have more Chromium than Copper, but due to its high difficulty to smelt, very little Chromium is used. 

In fact, we quite a bit more Cobalt in the world than Lithium.  Ability to mine it/refine it on the other hand... is an entirely different story.

In either case, we have no battery that is viable for anything other than a few select people of the world.  Need a battery that does not use lithium, cobalt, nickel, or Chromium or any other semi rare element. 

Chromium is used a lot in stainless steels such as 316, 304 etc where 18% is actually Chromium, which is a relatively high percentage of the alloy for one element.

I agree on the rest though.

NASA are trying to develop this but it looks a long way off if ever https://www.fastcompany.com/90801710/nasa-graphene-battery-electric-flight

If the world is going to go electric it needs something like this to make it happen as the earth hasnt got the minerals in the abundancy we need for current tech.

[El Gato + 254]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:24 PM, notsonice said:

all the EV makers have switched to LFP batteries which do no use Cobalt.........

Try to stay current...

 

Stay in school Junior ......you might learn something

No, you missed the point. You and the rest of the Greenies built your EV philosophy on the backs of Child labor fail to acknowledge the dirty secrets  in EV manufacturing, not to mention  what the heck are you going to do with all the batteries when they are Junk?  Ihave seen no recycling plans anywhere for then, so as far as i can tell, they can't be recycled.Not to mention how environmentally "dirty" it is to mine for lithium. Colbalt is in all our tech by the Way,not just the EV batteries. Anything that uses lithium batteries pretty much.

[footeab@yahoo.com + 2,190]

4 minutes ago, El Gato said:

No, you missed the point. You and the rest of the Greenies built your EV philosophy on the backs of Child labor fail to acknowledge the dirty secrets  in EV manufacturing, not to mention  what the heck are you going to do with all the batteries when they are Junk?  Ihave seen no recycling plans anywhere for then, so as far as i can tell, they can't be recycled.Not to mention how environmentally "dirty" it is to mine for lithium. Colbalt is in all our tech by the Way,not just the EV batteries. Anything that uses lithium batteries pretty much.

Dude, you literally nailed a 1.000 batting average for wrong other than the child labor.

Lithium is easy to mine in both hard rock and salt slurry form.  It is literally one of the cleanest materials by far to mine.  LFP batteries essentially have equal energy density as the NMC.  Difference is less than 15% now as LFP has superior volumetric efficiency to NMC = less battery compartment weight and less heating problems as well.  As for recycling, YES, 100% ALL NMC batteries are being recycled currently.  Just because YOU do not know about it does not make it not true.  Nickel/Cobalt/LIthium = BIG $$$.  The prices for Nickel/Cobalt/LIthium is only increasing by leaps and bounds.  Lithium is already 10X the base price of a couple years ago.  Nickel/Cobalt have increased 100% in less than 3 years.   You can make fairly good money going door to door collecting everyones batteries and taking them to a recycler. 

Nickel is sitting around $12/lb....   ~$30/kg

Copper is over $4/lb... ~$10/kg

Heck 1/2" thick steel/rebar is over $600/ton

Heck even Lead is now sitting around $1/lb

How many batteries do you need to make money... not many.

I mean really dude, how clueless can you be...Please send all your batteries and friends/neighbors batteries to me, I will gladly drive the ~30 miles to the recycler and make several Hundred $$$/hour for easy work. 

[NickW + 2,714]

On 2/17/2023 at 11:15 PM, El Gato said:

The lack of replies from the Green energy types is very Damning here. Think of those Kids working in those pits the next time you drive your EV down the road

Perhaps we have jobs and time is more limited to draft immediate responses. 

Significant amounts of Cobalt are used in steel alloys, particular those used in oil and gas production. I assume out of the same concern for 'those kids' you now forgo using gasoline, diesel or natural gas? 

[TailingsPond + 1,006]

The piles of unused pipe around here from the failed Keystone XL project are enormous.

Something like 1.1 billion worth of pipe.   Probably could have bought a lot of wires with that money.

 

[markslawson + 1,058]

12 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Why would EV sales fall short of forecasts when production is expected to increase?? This makes no sense.

Rob - I was referring back to the original post concerning subsidies for EVs and I think you're becoming confused over a realistic increase - I have no doubt that sales will increase, there are a lot of rich greenies out there - and the more insane forecasts requiring heaps more batteries. Hope that clears it up.. Time to move onto other topics. Leave it with you.

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

10 hours ago, NickW said:

Perhaps we have jobs and time is more limited to draft immediate responses. 

Significant amounts of Cobalt are used in steel alloys, particular those used in oil and gas production. I assume out of the same concern for 'those kids' you now forgo using gasoline, diesel or natural gas? 

Oh and clothing dont forget that! Or maybe El Gato goes around naked???🤣

[NickW + 2,714]

5 hours ago, Rob Plant said:

Oh and clothing dont forget that! Or maybe El Gato goes around naked???🤣

natural fibres only - Cotton, wool, mink pubes.

Organic too

[NickW + 2,714]

My Missus has her eye on a Jaguar I Pace. 2 years old but still bucking the trend claimed on here!

[SUZNV + 1,197]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:19 PM, Ron Wagner said:

IMHO hybrid vehicles have a natural market edge because of several factors:

1. Lower price.

2. Around town driving and charging at home meets most needs. 

3. No worries about having to replace a large battery pack. 

4. No long range driving problems.

5. No cold weather charging problems.

I think it is the best choice for cold states, as you cannot depend on battery alone to survive the winter. I doubt the CO2 cost for renewable electricity to charge it more efficient than CO2 from burning gasoline though.  And did we count the trees chopped down for renewable infrastructure and sea pollution that should recycle these CO2 into O2? The solution shouldn't be another problem itself. 

I don't know why we cannot cut the CO2 from entertainment & consumption industries Hollywood, games , fashion, marketing, beverage etc and concentrate into the core needs though.  Easy dopamine searching industries and egomania in urbanized materialistic society and greed & laziness & entitlement are the real problems. If you want something you will have to give up something else. No pain no gain. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by SUZNV

[Ron Wagner + 707]

There is little point in the Western World sacrificing its economies to benefit the Asian World which continues to increase coal production. I doubt that China has any net benefit from electric cars related to real pollution, but they are a leader in natural gas trucking. I am not afraid of CO2 nearly as much as other chemical pollution in soil and water. CO2 is beneficial to plants which are far greater than animal or fish life. 

[Ron Wagner + 707]

https://www.reuters.com/graphics/AUTOS-ELECTRIC/USA/mopanyqxwva/

 

The long road to electric cars

by Feilding Cage

Illustrations by Samuel Granados

PUBLISHED FEBRUARY 7, 2022

Edited February 24, 2023 by Ron Wagner

[Danlxyz + 63]

Lucid Air might be too expensive but somehow they neglected to include the price.

KEY POINTS

• Luxury electric vehicle maker Lucid said during its fourth-quarter earnings report that it had “over 28,000” reservations for its Air sedan as of Feb. 21, down from “over 34,000″ reservations in November.
• It plans to build just 10,000 to 14,000 vehicles in 2023, despite factory capacity to build more.
• Lucid stock has sold off since its earning report, as demand concerns raised questions for investors.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/lucid-ev-demand-problem.html

In this article

[Michael Sanches + 187]

Hybrids are more sought after and have higher sales figures. In addition, you can make many hybrid batteries for the same amount of rare earth metals and strategic materials as an EV battery.

Since I am retired and only drive about 2000 miles per year, I bought a super low mileage gas car. However, since I am an apartment dweller, I would have bought a hybrid if I was still working and driving 15,000 miles per year. Unless I move into a retirement complex that has chargers, I don't see an EV in my future.

Just one dudes current lifestyle choice.