E-car Sales Collapse

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

On 3/18/2023 at 6:29 AM, footeab@yahoo.com said:

Do you want taxi's all year round or not?  There won't be thousands of human taxi drivers taking over when it snows a bit if self driving cars are a thing.  There won't be taxi drivers at all.  So, until this gets fixed, a little snow would strand everyone in place. 

Taxi's fitted with snow tyres or chains! 

[jonathb + 10]

A related issue is the glut of "legacy" vehicles - ICE-powered BMW VW etc.. in China. There's also a smaller mini-glut of EVs and batteries. The upshot will be downward pressure on EV prices thru 2023-2024. Compounding this will be the 50% drop in lithium prices from the peak reached a few months ago. I know I'll hold out a few more months to buy my new EV.

[turbguy + 1,543]

An interesting "twist".

Must be some money behind it.  A profit of even 5 cents per KWh would be eyebrow raising.

Big Oil Wants In On The EV Boom

Last year, the electric vehicle sector crossed a global milestone, with one out of ten vehicles sold being electric for the first time ever.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Wants-In-On-The-EV-Boom.html

Edited March 22, 2023 by turbguy

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

5 hours ago, turbguy said:

An interesting "twist".

Must be some money behind it.  A profit of even 5 cents per KWh would be eyebrow raising.

Big Oil Wants In On The EV Boom

Last year, the electric vehicle sector crossed a global milestone, with one out of ten vehicles sold being electric for the first time ever.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Big-Oil-Wants-In-On-The-EV-Boom.html

Yep for those on here thinking ICE will remain dominant are in for a rude awakening. If the oil majors recognise the writing is on the wall and they have to jump on the bandwagon to survive/grow then you know its only round the corner.

Adapt and change or die, just like most subsea/offshore EPC's, OEM's, fabricators etc for oil & gas have done already in Europe.

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 3/21/2023 at 10:15 AM, jonathb said:

A related issue is the glut of "legacy" vehicles - ICE-powered BMW VW etc.. in China. There's also a smaller mini-glut of EVs and batteries. The upshot will be downward pressure on EV prices thru 2023-2024. Compounding this will be the 50% drop in lithium prices from the peak reached a few months ago. I know I'll hold out a few more months to buy my new EV.

The best option is a hybrid if you have a home. If money is no object it doesn't matter. 

[notsonice + 1,255]

16 hours ago, Ron Wagner said:

The best option is a hybrid if you have a home. If money is no object it doesn't matter. 

The best option is a hybrid ...today..Yes...Teslas are so overpriced   ...stupid money gets you a Tesla    .2025??? VW with their $25000 EVs in 2025............game changer in the business . Lot of Tesla buyers today that will not like the depreciation coming to the EV market due to the lower priced EVS coming out

[Rob Plant + 2,756]

13 hours ago, notsonice said:

The best option is a hybrid ...today..Yes...Teslas are so overpriced   ...stupid money gets you a Tesla    .2025??? VW with their $25000 EVs in 2025............game changer in the business . Lot of Tesla buyers today that will not like the depreciation coming to the EV market due to the lower priced EVS coming out

I agree depreciation and technology advances in batteries etc are delaying many from taking the plunge with EV's, myself included.

I dont want to constantly worry about range, if I have an 8 hour round trip for work then I dont want to add to it by 2 hours waiting for my car to re-charge so I can get home. I also dont want to think my car will be worth half its purchase price in 2 years time.

I have a hybrid but will wait for a full EV when it makes practical and economic sense.

[jonathb + 10]

Just a BTW to this thread.

CATL are now - mid-2023 - going big on sodium-ion batteries. These are already in use in small urban run-around cars in China, cost around $9K over there, range a little over 100 miles. But now this latest generation of sodium-ion tec is going mainstream on regular range EVs, and its effect will be huge. Sticker prices will be significantly lower on EVs than the equivalent ICE car, quite apart from the lower running cost. 

Surely many buyers must be waiting just a little longer for a tsunami of bargains.

[Polyphia + 83]

1 hour ago, jonathb said:

Just a BTW to this thread.

CATL are now - mid-2023 - going big on sodium-ion batteries. These are already in use in small urban run-around cars in China, cost around $9K over there, range a little over 100 miles. But now this latest generation of sodium-ion tec is going mainstream on regular range EVs, and its effect will be huge. Sticker prices will be significantly lower on EVs than the equivalent ICE car, quite apart from the lower running cost. 

Surely many buyers must be waiting just a little longer for a tsunami of bargains.

As a follow-up to jonathb's post:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-03-21/electric-vehicle-batteries-of-the-future-may-be-lithium-less?leadSource=uverify wall

[Ron Wagner + 707]

On 3/23/2023 at 3:02 PM, notsonice said:

The best option is a hybrid ...today..Yes...Teslas are so overpriced   ...stupid money gets you a Tesla    .2025??? VW with their $25000 EVs in 2025............game changer in the business . Lot of Tesla buyers today that will not like the depreciation coming to the EV market due to the lower priced EVS coming out

True, but a lot depends on when the price out the door matches the promises and the supply meets the demand. 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

A new problem is the fact that 

For many electric vehicles, there is no way to repair or assess even slightly damaged battery packs after accidents, forcing insurance companies to write off cars with few miles - leading to higher premiums and undercutting gains from going electric (Reuters)

Also:

https://notthebee.com/article/one-tiny-little-detail-they-forgot-to-tell-you-about-those-electric-vehicles

 

[Michael Sanches + 187]

On 3/25/2023 at 9:48 AM, jonathb said:

Just a BTW to this thread.

CATL are now - mid-2023 - going big on sodium-ion batteries. These are already in use in small urban run-around cars in China, cost around $9K over there, range a little over 100 miles. But now this latest generation of sodium-ion tec is going mainstream on regular range EVs, and its effect will be huge. Sticker prices will be significantly lower on EVs than the equivalent ICE car, quite apart from the lower running cost. 

Surely many buyers must be waiting just a little longer for a tsunami of bargains.

As an apartment dweller, I still would buy a hybrid over an EV. But, this sounds promising. By 2300 most cars will be EV. I just wish these socialists wouldn't force so much pain in the meantime with all their mandates.

[jonathb + 10]

In the U.K., 2023 EV new regs run-rate is around 43,000 until feb. In the whole of 2022 it was 368,000, and projections go way above that for all 2023. EVs are selling. IMHO just conjecture all of Europe is not much different, altho we know Norway is far ahead of the rest. IMHO2 Germany will do huge EV numbers 2023-2024, regardless of subsidies.  

[notsonice + 1,255]

16 minutes ago, jonathb said:

In the U.K., 2023 EV new regs run-rate is around 43,000 until feb. In the whole of 2022 it was 368,000, and projections go way above that for all 2023. EVs are selling. IMHO just conjecture all of Europe is not much different, altho we know Norway is far ahead of the rest. IMHO2 Germany will do huge EV numbers 2023-2024, regardless of subsidies.  

E-car Sales Collapse....was posted by a person in denial.......

Fake news is all the rage with the climate change denial crowd

 

2025 is the year that ICE vehicles on the road are at a peak....after that a long terminal decline in ICE vehicles on the roadBy 2030 EVs represent more than 60% of vehicles sold globally

Rome was not built in a day....for EVs.....looks like 2040 and EVs are the majority of vehicles on the road

[turbguy + 1,543]

48 minutes ago, notsonice said:

E-car Sales Collapse....was posted by a person in denial.......

Fake news is all the rage with the climate change denial crowd

 

2025 is the year that ICE vehicles on the road are at a peak....after that a long terminal decline in ICE vehicles on the roadBy 2030 EVs represent more than 60% of vehicles sold globally

Rome was not built in a day....for EVs.....looks like 2040 and EVs are the majority of vehicles on the road

I'm gonna miss rolling on the throttle of my Harley while in second gear...

[notsonice + 1,255]

43 minutes ago, turbguy said:

I'm gonna miss rolling on the throttle of my Harley while in second gear...

can you convert it to alcohol ??? just kidding .......my bet is no one will touch the biker crowds cycle's..or gasoline supply...Washington DC biker rallies will make Jan 6 look like an amateur event

 

Mad Max events will still rule the earth well into the next 100,000 years

Gasoline can be produced in your backyard if if you have access to a stripper well .....how many 100,000 of wells that are forgotten?

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

It begins...

EV sales collapse as subsidies and tax credits come to an abrupt halt

Germany have seen a steep falloff in sales and market share. Sales in Germany dropped about a third in January compared to 2022, totaling only 27,000 for the month. Market share in the country also fell off a cliff – after EVs accounted for 55% of all car sales in December 2022, the market share fell to just 15%. Elsewhere in Europe, the EV market share in the UK halved from about 40% to 20% month-to-month and from 50% to 24% in the Netherlands. This downward trend is replicated across much of Europe and will be giving automakers sleepless nights.

 

 

 

 

https://www.rystadenergy.com/news/ev-sales-collapse-as-subsidies-and-tax-credits-come-to-an-abrupt-halt

Edited March 29, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[turbguy + 1,543]

51 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

It begins...

EV sales collapse as subsidies and tax credits come to an abrupt halt

Germany have seen a steep falloff in sales and market share. Sales in Germany dropped about a third in January compared to 2022, totaling only 27,000 for the month. Market share in the country also fell off a cliff – after EVs accounted for 55% of all car sales in December 2022, the market share fell to just 15%. Elsewhere in Europe, the EV market share in the UK halved from about 40% to 20% month-to-month and from 50% to 24% in the Netherlands. This downward trend is replicated across much of Europe and will be giving automakers sleepless nights.

OHHHKAAY...

Looks like January is worth a little research. 

https://getcarketa.com/what-slowest-month-car-sales/

So What Is The Slowest Month For Car Sales?

If you’ve guessed January, then you’re up to something. The truth is it’s not that difficult to guess. When you pick just one month of the year, you can simply pick one during the winter, between January and February. But if you chose February, you’re wrong, despite February being much colder than its previous month. If you think that the winter climate has something to do with why January is the slowest month for car dealership sales, you’re partly correct, but we’re going to explain that later.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

Bringing peace&prosperity to a dark world..

Ford plans massive layoffs overseas in favor of EV development, inciting Europe-wide union threats

https://electrek.co/2023/01/23/ford-layoffs-overseas-ev-development-europe-union-threats/

Edited March 29, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

On 3/29/2023 at 9:07 AM, Eyes Wide Open said:

Bringing peace&prosperity to a dark world..

Ford plans massive layoffs overseas in favor of EV development, inciting Europe-wide union threats

https://electrek.co/2023/01/23/ford-layoffs-overseas-ev-development-europe-union-threats/

Highly pro-union?  Most of your posts sound like you would be anti-union.

Here Ford is using its capitalistic freedom to pursue growing markets (EV's) even if it pisses off the foreign unions.

Should American companies cave to what European unions think?  Doesn't sound very "America First" to me (Monroe doctrine etc.).  And yes, the automobile manufacturing industry is highly political.

 

Edited March 31, 2023 by TailingsPond

[turbguy + 1,543]

1 hour ago, TailingsPond said:

Highly pro-union?  Most of your posts sound like you would be anti-union.

Here Ford is using its capitalistic freedom to pursue growing markets (EV's) even if it pisses off the foreign unions.

Should American companies cave to what European unions think?  Doesn't sound very "America First" to me (Monroe doctrine etc.).  And yes, the automobile manufacturing industry is highly political.

 

Unions have a LOT to be proud of!

The direct result of their struggles have raised the quality of life for a large fraction of the population.

Not to say that they can also be destructive to profits.

[Eyes Wide Open + 3,555]

2 hours ago, TailingsPond said:

Highly pro-union?  Most of your posts sound like you would be anti-union.

Here Ford is using its capitalistic freedom to pursue growing markets (EV's) even if it pisses off the foreign unions.

Should American companies cave to what European unions think?  Doesn't sound very "America First" to me (Monroe doctrine etc.).  And yes, the automobile manufacturing industry is highly political.

 

Speaking of Ford..How much longer will Farley last..The founding father of Toyota Scion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-projects-3-billion-loss-on-ev-business-for-2023-98037e4e

Ford Says It Will Lose $3 Billion on EVs This Year as It Touts Startup Mentality

Company’s estimate shows how far traditional auto makers have to go to make EV portfolios profitable

https://www.insidehook.com/article/vehicles/doomed-toyota-scion-brand

Anatomy of a Failure: The Demographic Mistargeting That Doomed Scion

Toyota created Scion to cash in on youth culture. Older people loved it.

 

Is Farley the real deal? His move to Ford will tell

The marketing man who put Scion on the American automotive map, Jim Farley, is leaving Toyota Motor Sales for the most damaged American automaker, Ford Motor Company. His work leading Scion, Toyota and Lexus market.

 

 

https://www.motortrend.com/features/is-farley-the-real-deal-his-move-to-ford-will-tell-1167/amp/

Edited March 31, 2023 by Eyes Wide Open

[TailingsPond + 1,007]

15 minutes ago, Eyes Wide Open said:

Speaking of Ford..How much longer will Farley last..The founding father of Toyota Scion.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ford-projects-3-billion-loss-on-ev-business-for-2023-98037e4e

Ford Says It Will Lose $3 Billion on EVs This Year as It Touts Startup Mentality

 

Retooling factories isn't cheap.

You also seem to forget that the ICE auto industry has collapsed multiple times.  Look at Detroit, not the fault of EVs.

[turbguy + 1,543]

I cannot understand the disbelief with EV's, which are about in the same "maturity" as ICE Autos in the 1910's. 

Things change.

ALL THE TIME!

In the 1910s, the cost of a horse and an automobile varied greatly depending on several factors such as location, breed of the horse, and make and model of the car.

On average, a high-quality horse could cost anywhere from $100 to $300, while a basic automobile would cost around $500 to $1000. However, some luxury cars could cost as much as $4000 or more.

It's worth noting that owning a car was not just about the initial purchase cost, as maintaining and fueling an automobile was significantly more expensive than caring for a horse. Gasoline was expensive, and cars required more maintenance than horses, which made them a luxury item that only the wealthy could afford.

Overall, while the cost of a horse and an automobile in the 1910s varied greatly, it's safe to say that owning a car was a much more significant expense than owning a horse.

On average, a good quality horse in the 1920s could cost anywhere from $50 to $200, while a basic automobile would cost around $400 to $600, and luxury cars could cost as much as $10,000 or more.

The automobile was becoming more popular and accessible in the 1920s, leading to a decrease in the cost of basic models. Additionally, cars were becoming more reliable and required less maintenance than earlier models, making them more affordable for the average person.

Overall, while the cost of a horse and an automobile in the 1920s still varied, owning a car was becoming more affordable for the average person, and horses were becoming less of a necessity for transportation.

See a trend??

Edited April 9, 2023 by turbguy

[specinho + 470]

4 hours ago, turbguy said:

I cannot understand the disbelief with EV's, which are about in the same "maturity" as ICE Autos in the 1910's. 

Things change.

ALL THE TIME!

In the 1910s, the cost of a horse and an automobile varied greatly depending on several factors such as location, breed of the horse, and make and model of the car.

On average, a high-quality horse could cost anywhere from $100 to $300, while a basic automobile would cost around $500 to $1000. However, some luxury cars could cost as much as $4000 or more.

It's worth noting that owning a car was not just about the initial purchase cost, as maintaining and fueling an automobile was significantly more expensive than caring for a horse. Gasoline was expensive, and cars required more maintenance than horses, which made them a luxury item that only the wealthy could afford.

Overall, while the cost of a horse and an automobile in the 1910s varied greatly, it's safe to say that owning a car was a much more significant expense than owning a horse.

On average, a good quality horse in the 1920s could cost anywhere from $50 to $200, while a basic automobile would cost around $400 to $600, and luxury cars could cost as much as $10,000 or more.

The automobile was becoming more popular and accessible in the 1920s, leading to a decrease in the cost of basic models. Additionally, cars were becoming more reliable and required less maintenance than earlier models, making them more affordable for the average person.

Overall, while the cost of a horse and an automobile in the 1920s still varied, owning a car was becoming more affordable for the average person, and horses were becoming less of a necessity for transportation.

See a trend??

This info is probably slightly back dated but still true in some slower to catch up countries.....

Those countries running ahead have decided horses and horse carts are better off e.g. country sides of United States; country side and city tour trip in UK and a few European countries; police on mount Canada, UK, Europe etc.

With cattles, grass would be automatically in check. No cutting in need. No expenses on animal feed. No other  maintenance. Free grass- based organic fertilizer. And so forth.... 😯🤔

In the old days, steel horse shoes were used. This enhanced the strength of its kicks and potential damage created by stampede over the enemies during war and social unrest. Modern shoes can be of rubber based. This cushion the run, for a more comfortable ride?

Carts can be modified to reduce friction on wheels, weight of cart etc. These would enable it to run faster with smoother ride.....

The ultimate aim is to reduce the number of cars on the road,  disregard of types, right? 🤭

Edited April 9, 2023 by specinho